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NL East Notes: Morton, Braves, Allan, Nationals

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As Charlie Morton continues to recover from a fractured fibula, the veteran righty said last week that he is “mostly caught up” to where he’d be physically at this point in a normal offseason, The Athletic’s David O’Brien writes.  Morton did caution that he wouldn’t know for sure until he actually got back to regular action in a Spring Training environment, though for now, all seems good for Morton as he approaches his 15th Major League season.  Still in fine form last year, Morton was a big contributor to the Braves’ championship team, though the righty’s participation in the World Series was limited to just 2 1/3 innings after he was hit in the leg by a ball off the bat of Yuli Gurriel during Game One.  Three of Morton’s seven outs were recorded after the injury, as Morton gutted out the pain as long as he could.

Assuming Morton is healthy, he’ll represent one less question mark for an Atlanta roster that is already largely set (with the obvious exception of first base and the Freddie Freeman situation).  With the lockout now forcing some type of shortened or even a rushed Spring Training, this could play to the Braves’ favor, as they already have a familiar chemistry between the coaching staff and the players, plus most of the World Series-winning core group will be returning.

More from the NL East…

  • Mets prospect Matt Allan underwent ulnar nerve transposition surgery in January, the right-hander told The New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar and other reporters.  The procedure shouldn’t have much impact on Allan’s overall timeline for getting back onto the mound, as Allan was already expected to miss most or possibly all of the 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last May.  There is still a chance Allan could make it back this year, and he is making good progress in his TJ recovery, with Allan slated to start playing catch in about two weeks’ time.  Allan (who turns 21 in April) was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and was included in several top-100 prospects lists prior to the start of the 2021 season.
  • With Ryan Zimmerman’s retirement, the Nationals have a need for another first baseman to complement Josh Bell, and MASNsports.com’s Bobby Blanco figures the team will replace Zimmerman with another veteran free agent.  There’s a chance Washington might look at an internal option but none really stand out.  Mike Ford is a player who somewhat bridges both worlds, as he was a National before the club non-tendered him in November, and Blanco wonders if the Nats might re-sign Ford at a lower price tag when the lockout is over.

Charlie Morton Undergoes Surgery To Repair Fractured Fibula

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Oct. 29: Morton underwent surgery to repair the fracture, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training 2022.

Oct. 26: Braves starter Charlie Morton fractured his right fibula during tonight’s game against the Astros, the club announced. He’ll obviously miss the remainder of the World Series, but the team announced that he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Morton got the start in tonight’s World Series opener. He was struck in the leg by a Yuli Gurriel comebacker that turned into a groundout to lead off the second inning. That ball evidently broke Morton’s leg, but he incredibly remained in the game to strike out Chas McCormick and induce a Martín Maldonado line out. Morton even returned to the mound to start the bottom of the third, punching out José Altuve before swelling in the area made it impossible for him to continue.

The Braves will have to rely on their bullpen to finish off what they hope to be a series-opening victory. A.J. Minter has worked a couple innings in relief of Morton, with Atlanta holding onto a 5-1 lead midway through tonight’s game.

Atlanta will obviously have to navigate the rest of the series without their top starter. Max Fried is already lined up to start tomorrow’s Game 2, with Ian Anderson the most likely candidate to take the ball in Game 3. The Braves added Kyle Wright to their World Series roster, and he’s capable of working multiple innings after starting for the entire season. Wright has worked almost exclusively in Triple-A this year, though, so he’s not an ideal option to start a World Series game. The Braves will also be able to add another arm to the roster as an injury replacement, but they were already reaching into their depth after fourth starter Huascar Ynoa suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last week.

It’s a relief that the Braves’ immediate announcement noted that Morton is expected to ready for the start of next season. Still, it’s a disappointing conclusion to another strong campaign for the well-respected hurler. Morton will be back in Atlanta in 2022, having signed a $20MM extension last month.

Tucker Davidson Replaces Charlie Morton On Braves’ World Series Roster

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After ace Charlie Morton sustained a fractured fibula during Game 1 of the World Series last night, the Braves have replaced him on their World Series roster with left-hander Tucker Davidson, per a league announcement.

Morton, 37, took a 102 mph Yuli Gurriel comebacker off the leg in last night’s game. The ball caromed over to first baseman Freddie Freeman, and Morton retired the next two hitters without issue. As Jeff Schultz of The Athletic writes, the Braves conducted X-rays between innings, which did not reveal a fracture, so Morton returned for the third inning. While the right-hander managed to strike out Jose Altuve, he was immediately visited by trainers after the following pitch and soon departed. A second set of X-rays then revealed a fracture.

Whether Morton had a fracture that was initially concealed by swelling or sustained the fracture during the Altuve at-bat, the end result is the same. Atlanta will be without its top starter and one of the best performers in recent postseason memory. It’s a tough loss to take, but the Braves hung on for a 6-2 victory in Game 1 and now find themselves just three wins from their first World Series title since 1995. The 25-year-old Davidson, who has just 21 2/3 innings of MLB experience, will be tasked with helping to realize that ultimate goal.

A 19th-round pick by Atlanta in 2016, Davidson has steadily improved his stock throughout his career and now ranks as one of the club’s more promising young arms. He tossed 20 innings over the life of four regular-season starts in 2021, notching a 4.15 ERA while striking out 18 of his 83 opponents (21.7%) against eight walks (9.6%). He was terrific in limited Triple-A action as well, logging a 1.17 ERA and a 28-to-5 K/BB ratio in 23 innings out of the Gwinnett rotation.

A forearm injury interrupted Davidson’s season and limited him to just those eight starts during the regular season. He’s pitched in just one game since mid-June, a three-inning effort with Gwinnett back on Oct. 3. It’s unlikely he’ll be counted upon for lengthy relief stints, then, but he’ll still give the Braves a fresh arm should the need arise. Of course, the Astros represent a tough task for any southpaw, as Houston batted .270/.339/.449 against lefties as a team this season — good for an MLB-best 117 wRC+.

With Morton now finished for the season, it remains to be seen how the Braves will shape their rotation moving forward. Max Fried was announced as the Game 2 starter yesterday, but Atlanta has yet to announce starters for Game 3 or Game 4. Ian Anderson will likely draw the ball in Game 3.

Huascar Ynoa might’ve been an option but was removed from their NLCS roster due to a shoulder injury. As such, he’s ruled out for World Series work. Drew Smyly spent much of the season in Atlanta’s rotation but worked in a bullpen capacity down the stretch. He worked 3 1/3 innings in his lone postseason appearance to date (and, again, would have a tough draw against the ’Stros as a lefty). Kyle Wright is on the postseason roster and threw seven innings in his final Triple-A start — but that was back on Oct. 2. He hasn’t pitched since. With only two clear rotation options remaining, it’s possible the Braves will simply turn to a series of all-hands-on-deck bullpen games when Fried and Anderson don’t draw the start.

Braves Extend Charlie Morton

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The Braves announced Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Charlie Morton to a one-year contract worth $20MM. (The Braves are one of the few teams who formally disclose the terms of their player contracts themselves.) The Jet Sports client also has a $20MM club option for the 2023 season that does not have a buyout.

Charlie Morton | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Morton had somewhat of a slow start in his return to the Braves organization, pitching to a 5.08 ERA through his first eight starts of the season. He’s been lights-out ever since, however, working to a combined 2.95 ERA with a terrific 29.9 percent strikeout rate and a strong 7.4 percent walk rate over his past 20 starts — a total of 119 innings pitched. Overall, Morton has a 3.47 ERA in 158 frames with the Braves thus far in 2021.

This is the second go-around in Atlanta for Morton, whom the Braves selected with their third-round pick nearly two decades ago in 2002. He made his big league debut as a Brave in 2008 but was traded to the Pirates in the June 2009 swap that brought outfielder Nate McLouth to Atlanta. Morton would settle in as a mid-rotation starter in Pittsburgh, but a velocity spike in a very brief four-game stint with the Phillies — he missed the rest of the year with a torn hamstring — set the stage for him to land in Houston. With the Astros, Morton maintained that velocity bump and leaned more heavily into his four-seamer and curveball, at the expense of his sinker.

Morton broke out as one of the game’s best starters with the Astros, parlaying a brilliant two-year stint there into a two-year, $30MM contract with the Rays. He’d finish third in American League Cy Young voting and play a major role in the Rays’ postseason bid that year before some arm trouble brought about a slow start in 2020. Morton righted the ship in the season’s final couple weeks, however, and looked to be back to his dominant ways for much of the Rays’ 2020 run to the World Series.

Morton was a coveted free agent this offseason but had a small selection of teams he was willing to consider. Playing with the Rays afforded him the opportunity to live in his Bradenton, Fla. home, and Morton was reportedly very intent on remaining in the southeast to be near his family. His one-year deal with the Braves underscored that preference, as does today’s decision to forgo the open market entirely in favor of another one-year pact in a setting where he’s obviously quite comfortable.

With this deal in place, the Braves have now extended a pair of veterans in advance of free agency. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud inked a two-year, $16MM contract a couple weeks back, giving the club some stability behind the dish (as well as a potential bridge to William Contreras and/or Shea Langeliers).

Having Morton and d’Arnaud locked up for 2022 gives the Braves a total of $77MM committed to six players next season, although the status of Marcell Ozuna and his $16MM salary remain to be determined. The Braves also have option buyouts to pay to Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Josh Tomlin and the already-released Ender Inciarte.

The Braves opened the 2021 season with a payroll of $131MM, so there’s plenty of room for them to further add to that $77MM in guarantees this coming winter. Presumably, some of those funds are earmarked for what the team and its fanbase hope will be a long-term extension for franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman. That they’ve been able to secure new deals with d’Arnaud and Morton shows the Braves are more than comfortable having these discussions not only in-season but in the midst of a playoff race, so perhaps they’ll yet aim to strike up a new deal with Freeman before he ever formally reaches the market.

For now, the certainty with Morton means they’ll be able to count on the return of a veteran who has blossomed into one of the game’s most steadily productive arms late in his career. Morton can be penciled into the 2022 rotation alongside lefty Max Fried, right-hander Ian Anderson and, hopefully, oft-injured righty Mike Soroka. Still just 24 years old, Soroka broke out as one of the game’s most talented young starters in 2019 but has only pitched 13 2/3 innings since that time after tearing his Achilles tendon on two occasions. Soroka isn’t expected to be ready for the beginning of the 2022 campaign, however, so it stands to reason that the Braves could look for some additional rotation help this winter even with Morton now locked into a return.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Free Agent Notes: McCann, Angels, Yankees, Lester, Castro

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It appeared earlier Wednesday that catcher James McCann would join the Mets, though an agreement hasn’t materialized yet, and they’re not the only team chasing him at the moment. Robert Murray of FanSided tweets that the Angels are still in contention for McCann, a California native who would seemingly provide an upgrade over their current backstops, Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom. McCann was just a backup with the White Sox last season, but he logged terrific offensive numbers then and was impressive as a starter in 2019. It could take a four-year deal to land him this winter.

Some more notes on the open market…

  • The Yankees haven’t shown interest in re-signing right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, Andy Martino of SNY says (video link). The team is more focused on re-signing second baseman DJ LeMahieu, but it doesn’t seem likely to dole out any other sizable contracts, according to Martino. Tanaka has been a dependable part of the Yankees’ rotation since he emigrated from Japan in 2014, but the club may pass on bringing him back and instead decide to ride with its in-house options to begin 2021. The YES Network’s Michael Kay painted a similar picture recently on his ESPN Radio show (link via NJ.com’s Randy Miller). Kay noted that LeMahieu is the team’s top priority, adding that if a deal comes together, he “might be the last big guy they get.” Reports over the past several months have indicated that the Yankees are unlikely to be aggressive spenders this winter, with LeMahieu serving as a possible exception after two brilliant years in the Bronx.
  • Red Sox fans hoping to see a reunion with lefty Jon Lester don’t seem likely to get their wish, as WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports that Boston hasn’t reached out to its former ace this offseason. Right-handers Corey Kluber and Matt Shoemaker are among the names the Red Sox have contacted as they look to stabilize the back of their rotation, per Bradford. Boston also had interest in Charlie Morton before he signed with the Braves, although remaining close to his family’s Florida home was a priority for Morton.
  • The Astros and Rangers are among the teams with interest in catcher Jason Castro, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Castro began his career as a member of the Astros, with whom he played from 2010-16, before joining the Twins in free agency. The 33-year-old has regularly combined passable offense with well-regarded defense (particularly as a pitch framer), though he is coming off a somewhat disappointing campaign at the plate between the Angels and Padres. If he goes back to Houston, the left-handed-hitting Castro could platoon with righty Martin Maldonado. In Texas, he would presumably team with Jose Trevino to comprise the Rangers’ top two backstops.

Braves Notes: Melancon, Morton, Leaks, Chemistry, And Culture

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The Braves pulled off a somewhat surprising pair of moves early this postseason by nabbing starters Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton on one-year deals. That the deals were surprising, however, was not surprising. The Braves keep their internal conversations about players internal, according to the Athletic’s David O’Brien, who writes, “Atlanta is as leak-free as any organization in sports regarding rumors of potential trades and free-agent signings, and if the player and his agent are equally private, which is how the Braves like it and something that agents are aware of, there could and often are discussions and deals completed before anything is leaked.”

Hence, the dearth of news about re-signing, say, Mark Melancon, O’Brien notes, doesn’t equate to a lack of movement or interest. Simply, if the Braves do bring Melancon back, the public isn’t likely to hear about it until the deal is done.

In the meantime, Braves’ fans can content themselves with the additions they’ve already made this winter. After all, while neither the Smyly nor Morton contracts were big deals financially, they are big deals in terms of potential impact. The Morton acquisition bumped Fangraphs’ valuation of Atlanta’s rotation from the 16th-ranked rotation in the game to 11th, writes Jay Jaffe. Morton brings 1.5 more projected WAR than the Braves’ in-house alternative, per Steamer.

But for Morton, the decision to sign on the dotted line had as much to do with the personalities involved as it did the strength of the rotation. Familiarity with catching coach Sal Fasano, pitching coach Rick Kranitz, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud helped Morton commit to the switch from Tampa to Atlanta, according to a piece by O’Brien from just before Thanksgiving.

The already-established clubhouse culture in Atlanta also made the Braves an intriguing destination. Chemistry may not be the metric du jour for statisticians, but it was a consideration for Morton. Per O’Brien, Morton said, “Most good teams, they can outplay their talent level just by being close and having good attitudes and having fun. From everything that I know and what I’ve seen, the Braves have both. It looks like they’re really loose, fun-loving, but they’re also really talented. So I’m looking forward to being part of a group where you’re looking forward to getting to the park every day and you just want to hang out, being excited to play together.”

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Braves’ Recent Signings

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The Braves have easily been the offseason’s most active team in the early going. Atlanta has made a pair of rotation additions, signing southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal and bringing in Charlie Morton for one year at $15MM.

Single-year terms has become a staple of the Alex Anthopoulos regime in Atlanta. They’ve had plenty of success with short-term additions of Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna, but last winter’s Cole Hamels signing didn’t pan out as the left-hander’s year was derailed by injury. The front office decided to roll the dice on a new pair of veteran hurlers after coming up one game shy of a pennant in 2020.

Each of Morton and Smyly was indeed projected by the MLBTR staff to ink one-year deals this winter. However, both pitchers pulled in a bit more money than anticipated during what is widely expected to be a frigid offseason in the wake of teams suffering massive revenue losses. Morton picked up $7MM more than anticipated, while Smyly’s deal came in $6MM above expectation.

There are plenty of reasons the Braves’ front office decided to jump the market on these specific pitchers. Morton put up ace-caliber numbers from 2017-19 and rounded back into form down the stretch after a difficult start this past season. Smyly has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his career but flashed a new level for the Giants in 2020. The 31-year-old showed massively improved raw stuff and generated whiffs in bunches en route to a 2.01 FIP. He’ll need to prove he can sustain those gains for more than 26.1 innings, but it’s easy to see the upside.

One other factor worth considering: the qualifying offer. Neither Morton nor Smyly has received one in the past, meaning they’ll be eligible for the QO next winter if they spend the entire season in Atlanta.  It’s not especially likely either player warrants a QO in eleven months. Morton would be entering his age-38 season and might not even wish to keep playing; Smyly’s a year removed from a 6.24 ERA season. But the same would’ve been true of Kevin Gausman a year ago, and he sufficiently rehabilitated his value during his platform year to earn a qualifying offer from the Giants this offseason.

So, how do MLBTR readers feel about the Braves’ two new additions? Grade each deal from the team’s perspective. (poll links for app users)

 

Latest On Twins’ Search For Starting Pitching

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Right-hander Charlie Morton came off the free-agent board Tuesday when he signed with Atlanta, but the Braves had competition in the form of the Twins. Minnesota “had a lot of interest” in Morton, according to Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Geography may have worked against the Twins, though, as Morton has said in the past he prefers to pitch on the East Coast.

Even after missing out on Morton, the Twins still have a mostly set rotation with 2020 Cy Young contender Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak among those in the fold. However, with Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey currently on the open market, the team hopes to address its rotation from outside, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays.

“Any time you lose Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey to free agency, you’re not going to be complacent,” general manager Thad Levine said. “You realize there are pretty significant holes to fill. But we certainly don’t go into this offseason as if we have to fill three holes.”

Hill, 40, was the only member of that trio to deliver quality results over a sizable sample of innings for the Twins last season, but according to Hayes, they haven’t closed the door on re-signing Odorizzi – who MLBTR predicts will earn a three-year, $39MM payday this offseason. Otherwise, though, it doesn’t appear they’ll shop at the top of the market for pitching help, as Hayes writes it’s “unlikely” the Twins will go after the No. 1 free agent available, Trevor Bauer, or pursue trades for the Rays’ Blake Snell or the Cubs’ Yu Darvish.

[RELATED: Twins Offseason Outlook]

Braves Sign Charlie Morton

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The Braves have signed their second veteran starter in as many weeks, announcing on Tuesday that they’ve agreed to a one-year pact with right-hander Charlie Morton. The contract will pay Morton, a client of Jet Sports Management, a guaranteed $15MM for the 2021 season. (The Braves are one of the few clubs who divulge contract details in their press releases.) There are no incentives or no-trade clauses in the deal, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rays were the other finalist in Morton’s market.

Charlie Morton | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The loss of Morton surely stings for Rays fans, particularly given that his $15MM guarantee matches the sum for which the Rays could’ve retained him had they simply exercised a club option for the upcoming season. It seems that Tampa Bay had hoped to keep Morton at a lesser rate for the upcoming season, perhaps seeking to leverage their proximity to his family’s home in Bradenton, but the market for Morton proved strong. He’ll remain reasonably close to his family — it’s a 75-minute flight from Atlanta to Tampa — and now return to the organization that originally drafted him back in 2002.

Morton, 37, battled some shoulder fatigue and was limited to nine starts and 38 innings in 2020, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in that short time. The down time on the IL after his first two starts clearly did him some good, however, as the veteran righty returned with improved velocity and a 3.72 ERA in seven starts before going on to post a 2.70 ERA through 20 postseason innings. And of course, Morton is just one year removed from a third-place Cy Young finish with the Rays in 2019, when he worked to a 3.05 ERA and 2.81 FIP with 11.1 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 through 194 2/3 regular-season frames.

As has been general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ modus operandi since assuming his post in Atlanta, the Braves have acted quickly to address a clear need — and done so with the addition of short-term contracts for veterans. Morton joins southpaw Drew Smyly, who inked a one-year deal worth $11MM last week, as two new faces who’ll round out the Braves’ rotation behind Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Ian Anderson. The addition of Morton and Smyly likely pushes Kyle Wright out of the Atlanta rotation, although he has minor league options remaining and could head to Triple-A Gwinnett as a depth piece in the event of injury.

The Braves’ signings of both Morton and Smyly will at least allow them to entertain the idea of dealing from their pitching depth to address other needs and strengthen other areas this winter, though. Not only is Wright displaced from the rotation, but each of Sean Newcomb, Bryse Wilson, Touki Toussaint, Huascar Ynoa, Tucker Davidson, Patrick Weigel and Jasseel De La Cruz is now without a clear path to big league innings — at least in the rotation.

Soroka may require some extra time to recover from an Achilles tear that ended his 2020 season, though an exact timeline on his return is still unclear. Wright is the likeliest option to stand in for him early in the year. Some of the names on that alternate arms be used as relievers and others in minor league rotations, but the Atlanta organization clearly has some young pitchers to peddle if they’re interested in virtually any trade asset on the market this winter.

As for the Braves’ payroll, the addition of Morton gives the team $93.7MM guaranteed to 10 players. Adding in an arbitration class projected to be worth roughly $20MM would push the payroll north of $113MM, although the Braves have some non-tender candidates among their ranks (e.g. Luke Jackson, Johan Camargo, Adam Duvall). The club could also look to move the final guaranteed year of center fielder Ender Inciarte’s contract in the coming months.

All of that is crucial to bear in mind as the team looks to retain free-agent left fielder Marcell Ozuna — or possibly to replace him if he lands elsewhere. We’ve not seen Anthopoulos spend at the levels it’d take to sign Ozuna since he took over the GM post in Atlanta, though it’s at least possible he’ll break that trend for Ozuna. To this point, Will Smith’s three-year, $40MM contract is the largest free-agent deal issued under this front office regime. It’s not known what extent the Liberty Media-owned Braves can further spend, but they’re a ways shy of the more than $150MM payroll they stood to carry on Opening Day 2020 (prior to the league shutdown and subsequent prorating of salaries).

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides were close to a deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the agreement and the contract’s value (via Twitter).

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