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Extension Candidate: Justin Masterson

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The Indians have extended starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, and Fausto Carmona in the last decade, in most cases getting cost savings and extra free agent years in the process.  Fresh off a breakout season, could 26-year-old Indians righty Justin Masterson be next?

Masterson

Masterson's 2011 season featured career-bests in innings (216), ERA (3.21), walk rate (2.7 per nine), home run rate (0.46 per nine) and wins (12).  His always-strong groundball rate held up, and his 6.6 K/9 was acceptable.  The knock on Masterson has always been his difficulty retiring left-handed batters.  Though he wasn't able to put them away with strikeouts, Masterson limited his walks against left-handed batters and posted a 3.88 xFIP against them.  In general, he might not be able to maintain 2011's 6.3% home run per flyball rate, but Masterson still remains capable of a sub-4.00 ERA.

Masterson has three years and 108 days of Major League service, so he's arbitration eligible for the first time this winter.  Matt Swartz's projections call for a $3.6MM salary in 2012.  Masterson's arbitration case may be tied to the fates of other first-time starters such as Jeff Niemann, Max Scherzer, and Matt Harrison this year, among others.

In recent times, extensions for pitchers with three to four years of service have been rare.  Perhaps once a player is on the cusp of his first big payday through arbitration, he prefers to see that through for at least one year.  If an extension is preferable to Masterson, his agent Randy Rowley could look to Johnny Cueto's contract, signed a year ago with the Reds.  At an even three years, Cueto had less service time than Masterson, one reason Masterson bests Cueto by 82 2/3 innings.  Cueto still managed four more wins, but they're otherwise comparable, with the career and platform year ERA edge going to Masterson.  The numbers converge further if we only look at Masterson's 87 career starts.

Cueto signed a four-year, $27MM deal.  He received $16.2MM for his three arbitration years and $10MM for his first free agent year, with a club option at the same price for another.  The same contract would be a reasonable target for Masterson, perhaps with a few hundred thousand tacked on so he could top Cueto.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Matt Garza Talks Heating Up

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5:12pm: The Cubs and Blue Jays continue to discuss a Garza deal, Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio and ESPN.com tweets.  The Cubs seem to be prioritizing young starting pitching in talks about Garza, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. One executive told Heyman that the Yankees and Blue Jays have what it takes to acquire Garza.

12:53pm: Trade talks for Cubs starter Matt Garza are heating up, writes David Kaplan of Comcast Sportsnet Chicago.  Kaplan says the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox are involved, but the Cubs' asking price is "incredibly high."

Yesterday, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith took an in-depth look at Garza's contract situation; he's under team control through 2013.  Cubs president Theo Epstein said on Friday that Garza is "exactly type of pitcher we want to build around," but he'll listen on everybody.  So far this winter trade values have been established for Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos, and Trevor Cahill, but all of them came with at least four years of team control.

Yankees Notes: A-Rod, Nakajima, Chavez, Andruw

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Today the Yankees agreed to a minor league deal with lefty Hideki Okajima.   He's made 31 appearances against them over the years as a member of the Red Sox.  Other Yankees news…

  • Third baseman Alex Rodriguez recently traveled to Germany for an experimental therapy called Orthokine on his right knee, reported Mike Puma of the New York Post.  Orthokine is similar to Platelet Rich Plasma therapy, which reliever Takashi Saito had done several years ago.  The procedure, which was recommended by Kobe Bryant, came with the blessing of the Yankees and the commissioner's office.  Puma explains, "Orthokine involves taking blood from the patient’s arm and spinning it in a centrifuge, a machine used in laboratories to spin objects around a fixed axis. The serum is then injected into the affected area."  Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters the procedure was done on Rodriguez's left shoulder as well.  For more on the topic, check out this article from Teri Thompson and Christian Red of the New York Daily News.
  • Cashman appears to be waiting for a resolution on the Hiroyuki Nakajima situation before pursuing Eric Chavez any further, tweets MLB.com's Bryan Hoch.  Hoch says the Nakajima situation will be resolved next week.  The Yankees won the exclusive right to negotiate with Nakajima with a bid around $2MM earlier this month.
  • Hoch notes that the Yankees are still talking about re-signing Andruw Jones but Cashman says he has nothing to report right now.

Latest On Andrew Bailey

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Athletics closer Andrew Bailey likely will be traded to the Red Sox or Rangers, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney, who notes that both suitors have interest and the chips needed.  Earlier this month the Rangers won the right to negotiate with Yu Darvish and the Red Sox acquired Mark Melancon, but reports indicated both clubs remained interested in Bailey.  The Rangers might have an excess of starters if they sign Darvish and keep Alexi Ogando out of the 'pen.

In a report a week ago, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports noted that the Rays are also in on Bailey.

Rizzo On Center Field, First Base

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo joined Mike Ferrin on MLB Network Radio today; here are a few key comments.

On center field:

We see the 2013 free agent class at center field is much stronger than it is for the 2012 season.  With that in mind we know Jayson [Werth] can handle the center field position.  It's not a perfect world for us.  He's a good defender out there and is ready, willing, and able to take on the responsibility to play center field.  We recognize that we need a true gliding, defensive, rangy center fielder out there in a perfect world. As far as the 2012 season we're not going to make a kneejerk reaction and lock ourselves into anything long-term if it doesn't make sense for us.  

MLBTR's 2013 free agent list can be seen here.  Viable candidates for the Nationals could include Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, and Shane Victorino, or perhaps Angel Pagan or Grady Sizemore if they have strong 2012 seasons.

On whether Rizzo will monitor the Prince Fielder situation:

Adam LaRoche is under contract for us, we're paying him a lot of money to play first base for us next year.  We feel that he's going to have a bounceback season.  We just want him to have his career norms: .265, 25, 85-100 RBIs and play great defense.  We feel that his shoulder is rehabbed, he's 100%, and talking to him just recently he feels great and he's ready to contribute to us in 2012.  As far as, are we going to dabble our toe in that water?  Those are decisions that we make early on in the process and we've more or less decided that Adam is going to be our first baseman unless something extraordinary, out of the ordinary happened, that's how we're going to go to Spring Training.

Extension Candidate: Madison Bumgarner

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The Matt Moore extension showed any young pitcher is a candidate for a multiyear extension, regardless of service time.  Once the Giants gain clarity on the situations of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, why not lock up Madison Bumgarner?

Bumgarner

Bumgarner, just 22, quietly became one of the ten best pitchers in the National League this year.  He posted a 3.21 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9, and 46% groundball rate in 204 2/3 innings.  It's possible the best is yet to come, as the lefty posted a 5.8 K/BB ratio over his final 23 starts.

Bumgarner is represented by SFX, the agency that ranks fourth in extensions since 2009 with seven.  Four of those were for starting pitchers Zack Greinke, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Verlander, and Clay Buchholz.  The Giants have a GM in Brian Sabean who is open to extensions, so the biggest question may be whether Bumgarner prefers long-term security or maximum year-to-year earnings.  Bumgarner received a $2MM signing bonus as the tenth overall pick in 2007, so he already has some measure of financial security.

Bumgarner has one year and 127 days of Major League service.  Since January of 2008, four pitchers with at least one year of service but less than Bumgarner's 1.127 have signed multiyear extensions: James Shields, Jimenez, Brett Anderson, and Wade Davis.  All signed four-year deals worth $10-12.6MM.  The Rays' Davis and Shields each allowed for three club options, while Anderson and Jimenez have two.  A third Rays starter, Moore, merits a mention in that he signed for more money than any of them, getting a $14MM guarantee with just 17 days of service.  Moore's contract also includes three club options.    

It's easy to see that Bumgarner is more accomplished than Shields, Jimenez, Anderson, and Davis were at the time their extensions were signed.  Bumgarner has a 3.10 career ERA, while the others were all over 4.00.  Anderson and Shields had similar strikeout and walk rates, but Bumgarner hasn't been nearly as homer-prone.  Bumgarner has the most wins, at 20.  Only Shields tops Bumgarner's innings total, a small 14-inning advantage that swings to Bumgarner when postseason innings are included.

If the Giants don't get at least one of Bumgarner's free agent years, an extension probably isn't worth considering for them.  Unless the lefty's extension is to shatter precedents, he'll probably have to accept club options on his third arbitration year and first free agent season.  If I were Bumgarner's agent, I'd be aiming for at least $16MM on a four-year deal.  A big win would be to get his third arbitration year guaranteed, pushing the value to $23-24MM over five years.  That might seem pricey now, but another strong season will push the required guarantee past $30MM.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Yankees To Sign Hideki Okajima

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The Yankees agreed to a minor league deal with reliever Hideki Okajima, tweets David Waldstein of the New York Times.  Earlier, Sports Hochi in Japan reported talks between the two parties were in the final stages and a deal could be reached shortly after the new year (as translated by NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman).

Okajima, 36, has a 3.11 ERA across 246 1/3 big league innings, all with the Red Sox from 2007-11.  He spent most of 2011 at Triple-A, posting a 2.29 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 0.53 HR/9 in 51 innings.  As you'd expect, Okajima has been better against lefties in the Majors, with a 8.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, and 3.87 xFIP across 107 1/3 innings per FanGraphs.

Athletics Interested In Jorge Soler

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The Athletics have strong interest in five-tool Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  She says Yoenis Cespedes' price tag is too high for the A's, and his desire for either a four or ten-year deal doesn't work for them.

Soler, 19, has also been linked to the Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Cubs, and Rangers this offseason.  Nationals Director of International Scouting Johnny DiPuglia has watched Soler for years, and told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, "He’s got a Hanley Ramirez-type body.  Plus arm. Plus bat speed. He’s a good kid, a good-energy kid."  Though Soler would need more minor league seasoning, it's been written he could have more upside than Cespedes.  Soler is younger and more talented than the Rangers' Leonys Martin, wrote Baseball America's Jim Callis, so he figures to beat Martin's $15.6MM contract.  Callis notes that the $2.9MM international signing cap installed in the new CBA doesn't begin until the 2012-13 signing period, so as long as Soler signs before July 2nd, there are no limitations.

Slusser also adds to the A's-San Jose story in another article.  She talked to former Giants general managing partner Peter Magowan, who thinks San Jose is "wishful thinking" for the A's.  She also learned from A's owner Lew Wolff and others that the stadium issue is not on the agenda for the owners' meetings in two weeks.

2011 Payrolls By Division

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Five days ago the Associated Press published 2011 payrolls for the 30 teams based on information sent by the clubs to the commissioner's office.  They explain:

Figures are for 40-man rosters and include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned incentive bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. In some cases, parts of salaries that are deferred are discounted to reflect present-day values.

$2,999,557,280 was spent in total, so the $100MM or so spent by the Rangers or Mariners is about average.  The Yankees, of course, led with a $216MM figure.  That's 4.85 times the Royals' payroll, which was the lowest at about $45MM.  Maury Brown has quality analysis of over at The Biz of Baseball.  Below I thought it'd be interesting to break down the spending by league and division.

American League: $104.7MM per team

  • AL East: $119.6MM per team
  • AL Central: $90.5MM per team
  • AL West: $103.9MM per team

National League: $95.8MM per team

  • NL East: $105.9MM per team
  • NL Central: $90.8MM per team
  • NL West: $88.5MM per team

Quick Hits: Beltran, Corpas, Dickey, Ross

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Six years ago today, the Diamondbacks officially traded third baseman Troy Glaus and shortstop prospect Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for righty Miguel Batista and second baseman Orlando Hudson.  Josh Byrnes and J.P. Ricciardi were the respective GMs.  Glaus' retirement came with little fanfare despite 320 career home runs and four All-Star Game appearances.  Santos eventually found his way to the White Sox, who helped him become a successful reliever and recently traded him back to Toronto.  Batista is a 40-year-old free agent with 101 career wins to his name.  Hudson, a four-time Gold Glove winner, is a trade candidate for the Padres, the team Byrnes now heads up.  Ricciardi now serves as a special assistant to Mets GM Sandy Alderson, who appears to have interest in re-signing Batista.

MLBTR was less than two months old at the time of the Glaus trade; you can read my paragraph on it here.  Back then the site was a one-man show with gray text against a black background, and Twitter did not exist.  We've come a long way!  On to today's links…

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