Which Free Agents Will Be Offered Arbitration?
As the clock ticks down toward tonight's free agent arbitration offer deadline at 11pm central time, we at MLBTR reminisce about all the good times we had deciphering the Elias ranking system.
Things will be simpler in 2012, as traded players won't be eligible for draft pick compensation, arbitration offers will come much earlier, and there will be only one group of free agents subject to compensation. Instead of players being designated as Type A based on lame statistics chosen by MLB and the players union decades ago, it'll just be a question of whether the former team offers a guaranteed one-year contract with a salary equal to the average salary of the 125-highest paid players from the prior season. That seems to equal $12.4MM at present, but it'll surely rise each year. The bottom line: a team has to be willing to risk a sizeable one-year commitment to have a shot at draft pick compensation. Gone are the days of Scott Downs and Grant Balfour costing or providing a team draft picks. Perhaps more significantly, there's no Type B equivalent. In 2011 alone the Padres, Rays, and Blue Jays gained 10 picks between the first and second rounds as a result of losing middling free agents like Yorvit Torrealba, Brad Hawpe, and Kevin Gregg.
We still have Elias rankings to consider for this offseason, however. We have a good idea of what will happen with the 20 current Type A free agents. Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero, Octavio Dotel, Ramon Hernandez, and Darren Oliver will be treated as Type B players, and don't require arbitration offers for their teams to receive a supplemental draft pick as compensation. This modification is a win for the Twins and Reds, who probably weren't going to offer arbitration to Capps and Cordero. It's also, of course, a win for these players, who don't come with the draft pick cost attached.
Another change helps Type As Heath Bell, Michael Cuddyer, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Madson, Francisco Rodriguez, Josh Willingham, and their teams: these six players will not cost a draft pick for their new teams if they turn down arbitration offers, yet the former teams still receive two picks. All these players are seeking multiyear deals, so all figure to receive and turn down arbitration offers, except for perhaps Rodriguez. I have a feeling Scott Boras clients are a bit less open to handshake agreements to turn down arbitration, as the Rays couldn't pull that off with Carlos Pena last year. With K-Rod earning $11.5MM in 2011, the Brewers still risk him accepting and taking a one-year deal for 2012 at a higher salary if they offer arbitration. Still, if Boras feels there's three years, $30MM, and a closing job out there for Rodriguez, I imagine he'll still advise his client to turn down an arbitration offer.
As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted yesterday, remaining Type A free agents Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, C.J. Wilson, David Ortiz, Roy Oswalt, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins are still under the old rules, while Takashi Saito and Carlos Beltran contractually cannot be offered arbitration. Of the first seven, the Phillies may choose not to offer arbitration to Oswalt given his salary. I think an arbitration offer for Ortiz from the Red Sox is likely, but less certain than the others.
We also have 32 Type B free agents for whom decisions are due tonight. Those with a good chance of receiving an arbitration offer, in my opinion: Aramis Ramirez, Alex Gonzalez, Mark Buehrle, Jason Kubel, Frank Francisco, Bruce Chen, Edwin Jackson, Kerry Wood, Freddy Garcia, Jose Molina, and Shawn Camp. There will probably be others, with the unpredictable element of players privately agreeing to decline, as we saw with Hawpe, Trevor Hoffman, and Javier Vazquez last year.
Six Teams Interested In Huston Street
TUESDAY: The Marlins, Red Sox, Reds and Mets are also interested in Street, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
MONDAY: The Orioles and Blue Jays are among the teams to have expressed trade interest in Rockies reliever Huston Street, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Jim Johnson replaced Kevin Gregg as the Orioles' closer late last season, but Rosenthal says the O's prefer Johnson in next year's rotation. There's no harm in inquiring on Street, but in my opinion an $8MM closer is a luxury the Orioles don't need. We'll see whether the Rockies are willing to cover a decent chunk of his contract. Rosenthal suggests Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie as a possible fit for Colorado, though I think Baltimore could trade Guthrie for better long-term assets than Street.
With Rafael Betancourt penciled in to close for the Rockies next year, Street seems widely available. Rosenthal and colleague Jon Paul Morosi first made the Blue Jays connection last week.
Latest On Andrew Bailey
4:43pm: The Mariners have inquired on Bailey, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Olney suggests the A's will definitely move the reliever this offseason.
12:48pm: The A's are very willing to trade Bailey, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. He notes that the Phillies had interest before they signed Jonathan Papelbon.
11:19am: A Reds source agrees that Alonso is way too much for Bailey, writes MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. Sheldon notes that starting pitching is a more pressing need for the Reds than a closer.
9:00am: The Reds are talking about a possible deal for Athletics closer Andrew Bailey, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. The A's are interested in Yonder Alonso, tweets Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and ESPN.com. The Reds have a need at the back end of their bullpen, with Francisco Cordero entertaining offers as a free agent. The Blue Jays are also known to have Bailey on the radar.
Bailey, 27, posted a 3.24 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, and 37.1% groundball rate in 41 2/3 innings this year. He missed time with an oblique injury in 2010, and also had elbow surgery in September of that year. Effects of the procedure caused him to miss most of the first two months of the 2011 campaign.
Bailey is under team control through 2014, and we project him for a reasonable $3.5MM in 2012 as he'll be arbitration eligible for the first time.
Orioles Talking To Chong Tae-Hyon
4:40pm: The Orioles are trying to sign Tae-Hyon, according to Knobler (on Twitter). GM Dan Duquette acknowledged the team's interest, but wouldn't say that the sides have completed a deal, according to MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli (on Twitter).
12:45pm: The Orioles have been talking to Korean free agent reliever Chong Tae-Hyon, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. According to Korean reports, Tae-Hyon has stopped all talks with his old team, the SK Wyverns, and wants to come to MLB. Stories of the Orioles' interest first surfaced last week in Korean newspapers, which you can read here and here. Click here to see a video of Tae-Hyon facing the Dodgers in a pre-World Baseball Classic warmup game in 2009.
New Labor Deal To Be Announced Tomorrow
Major League Baseball and the Players Association have scheduled a noon central press conference for tomorrow, and MLB.com's Barry Bloom says they'll announce the new five-year Basic Agreement. Some of the expected changes:
- The Astros will join the American League in 2013 and two wild card teams will be added.
- There will be limits for draft pick and international free agent spending, above which penalties will be incurred. Loss of future draft picks is one such penalty.
- The luxury tax threshold will remain at $178MM for 2012-13, then increase to $189MM for 2014-16, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. He says repeat offenders will be taxed at 50% beginning with the 2014 season. The Yankees currently pay at a 40% rate.
- Teams signing the remaining Type A relievers will not surrender a draft pick this offseason. Those seven teams will still receive compensatory picks, though I assume they must offer arbitration on Wednesday first.
- Starting next season, the Elias rankings system for free agent compensation will be eliminated. According to the AP, "Starting next year, teams will have to make a 'qualifying offer' of a one-year guaranteed contract to their players eligible to become free agents in order to receive compensation if the player signs with another club. That amount will be at least $12.4 million and could rise by next year, depending on a formula."
- The minimum salary will increase from $414K this year to $480K in 2012 and $500K in later years.
- The Super Two cutoff will rise from the top 17% of players with 2-3 years service time to the top 22%.
- Blood testing for human growth hormone will begin.
Pirates Sign Clint Barmes
The Pirates found their new shortstop, as they officially signed Clint Barmes to a two-year deal today. The contract is worth $10.5MM, Barmes confirmed to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch notes that with a $5MM salary in 2012, Barmes will be the Pirates' highest-paid player.
Barmes, 32, hit .244/.312/.386 in 495 plate appearances for the Astros this year while playing above-average defense at shortstop. Barmes replaces Ronny Cedeno as the Pirates' starting shortstop and reunites with former manager Clint Hurdle. The Pirates' press release cites Barmes' UZR heavily, with GM Neal Huntington adding, "With the signing of Clint Barmes, we have added an above average defensive shortstop who will bring quality experience and reliability to the club on the playing field as well as a positive veteran presence in the clubhouse."
Middle infielders have been surprisingly well-compensated this offseason, with Aaron Hill, Mark Ellis, and Omar Infante also receiving two-year deals despite lackluster offensive years.
Since Barmes was a Type B free agent, the Astros will receive a supplemental draft pick for their loss. "We'll have to explore different options to find a front-line shortstop or someone to share time with [Angel] Sanchez," Astros GM Ed Wade told McTaggart.
McTaggart says Barmes talked to the Brewers about a possible two-year deal, but they weren't willing to make an offer until Prince Fielder's situation was resolved. Barmes said on a conference call today that he didn't receive many other concrete offers, and the Pirates' guarantee of two years was a big factor.
5,020 people entered MLBTR's free agent prediction contest earlier this month, and three contestants are batting 1.000 after four of our top 50 free agents signed.
Pirates Designate Brian Jeroloman For Assignment
The Pirates designated catcher Brian Jeroloman for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Clint Barmes, according to the team. The Pirates had claimed Jeroloman off waivers from the Blue Jays on Friday.
Jeroloman, 26, hit .240/.335/.295 in 318 Triple-A plate appearances this year. Prior to the 2009 season, Baseball America praised Jeroloman for his defensive abilities.
Justin Verlander Wins AL MVP
Justin Verlander won the American League MVP award, according to the Baseball Writers Association of America. Verlander took home the AL's Cy Young award last week. He's the first pitcher to win the MVP since Dennis Eckersley in 1992, and the first starter since Roger Clemens in '86.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Adrian Gonzalez, Michael Young, Dustin Pedroia, and Evan Longoria rounded out the top ten. Ian Kinsler, Alex Avila, Paul Konerko, C.C. Sabathia, Adrian Beltre, Ben Zobrist, Victor Martinez, James Shields, Mark Teixeira, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alex Gordon, Josh Hamilton, and David Robertson also received votes.
Rangers Expressed Interest In Frank Francisco
Ten months ago, Frank Francisco and cash brought the Rangers two years of Mike Napoli. After a season with the Blue Jays, Francisco is now a free agent, and MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan says the Rangers have expressed interest in bringing him back. So far, the Mets have also been linked to Francisco.
Francisco, 32, posted a 3.55 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and 38.6% groundball rate in 50 2/3 innings this year. He was diagnosed in March with tightness in his right pectoral and biceps inflammation, which delayed his season debut until April 20th. He bounced in and out of Toronto's closer role, saving 17 games in 21 opportunities. The Rangers are very open to the idea of moving Neftali Feliz to the rotation next year, which may create a need at the back end of the bullpen even with summer acquisitions Mike Adams and Koji Uehara under team control.
Nationals Visiting Buehrle At His Home Today
Nationals officials including GM Mike Rizzo are visiting free agent lefty Mark Buehrle and his agents at his home in St. Louis today, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Kilgore says Buehrle is the team's top free agent choice. Roy Oswalt seems to be Plan B. The Nationals met with the agents for both pitchers at last week's GM Meetings.
Rizzo is looking for a horse, and the 32-year-old Buehrle fits the bill with 11 consecutive seasons of 201+ innings. As I noted in October, the Nationals have front-end rotation talent in Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, but neither is likely to be an innings-eater in 2012.
Aside from the Nationals, the Marlins, Cubs, Twins, Rangers, Yankees, Royals, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, and Angels reportedly have interest in Buehrle.