2012 MLB Free Agent Tracker
Our 2012 MLB Free Agent Tracker is now available! The tracker currently allows you to filter free agents by position. You can also link to who's available at each position. Once the information becomes available, you'll be able to filter, sort, and link by Type A or B, signed or unsigned, signing team, amount, and years.
If you'd like option and age data on free agents, you can check out our 2012 MLB Free Agents list. The list is more useful for quickly seeing who's still available once players start signing, but both the tracker and the list will be constantly updated this offseason.
My top 50 free agents list with predictions will be published Monday.
Joe Nathan Seeks Closing Job
Joe Nathan's agent Dave Pepe says his client is excited about free agency and seeks a closer job in 2012, tweets SI's Jon Heyman. Nathan is apparently not interested in an eighth inning gig after dominating as the Twins' closer from 2004-09.
Yesterday the Twins made the obvious call of declining Nathan's $12.5MM club option, but they have interest in re-signing the righty. The Twins can offer him a chance to close, but the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, and Cubs could be in the market as well.
Nathan, 36, had Tommy John surgery in March of 2010, returning this year to mixed results. He had some issues with the longball at times, but his peripherals were solid. For fantasy baseball analysis on Nathan, check out Dan Mennella's latest at CloserNews.
Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
Look for the Reds to be active on the trade market, as GM Walt Jocketty decides whether to use his trade chips and limited payroll flexibility on a front-of-the-rotation starter or a middle-of-the-order bat.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Bronson Arroyo, SP: $13.5MM through 2013, plus significant deferred money
- Scott Rolen, 3B: $6.5MM through 2012
- Joey Votto, 1B: $26.5MM through 2013
- Aroldis Chapman, SP/RP: $7MM through 2014
- Johnny Cueto, SP: $23.6MM through 2014
- Jay Bruce, RF: $48MM through 2016
- Yonder Alonso, LF: $1MM through 2012
- Miguel Cairo, IF: $1MM through 2012
- Ryan Hanigan, C: $3.25MM through 2013
Contractual Options
- Brandon Phillips, Type A 2B: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Nick Masset, RP: $2.4MM
- Edinson Volquez, SP: $2.3MM
- Homer Bailey, SP: $1.8MM
- Bill Bray, RP: $1.4MM
- Jose Arredondo, RP: $1MM
- Jared Burton, RP: $900K (non-tender candidate)
- Paul Janish, SS: $800K (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Francisco Cordero (Type A RP), Ramon Hernandez (Type A C), Edgar Renteria (unranked SS), Dontrelle Willis (unranked SP)
The Reds had a strong offense again in 2011, but were unable to muster the needed support from their starting pitching. GM Walt Jocketty continues to face limited payroll flexibility, especially if he retains certain veterans. Jocketty's own situation was resolved in September, when ownership extended him through 2014.
There's little doubt Phillips will return in 2012, though the second baseman has indicated he'd be insulted if the Reds merely pick up his option rather than extend him. That's just talk, though — Phillips would have no basis to demand a trade, and if his performance drops off significantly it will affect his free agent payday. An extension could help the Reds in the short-term by potentially reducing Phillips' 2012 salary, though he's said there will be no "homeboy hookup." If Dan Uggla's contract is a guide, the Reds should be prepared to pay Phillips $13MM annually or else move on.
Keeping one of the game's best second basemen makes sense, but hopefully, Jocketty keeps the price down on a potential two-year deal to retain Cordero. The 36-year-old became a low-strikeout groundball pitcher this year. The transformation was effective in 2011, but the Reds can't afford to commit $5MM a year for two more seasons of Cordero. That'd be placing a premium on the save statistic, a market inefficiency the Reds should avoid.
If the Reds have an $83MM payroll next year and retain Phillips for $12MM and Cordero for $5MM, that'd leave only $7MM in flexibility before considering minimum salary players. The Reds could free up payroll by trading disappointing arbitration eligible players like Masset, Volquez, or Bailey, but they all project affordably at around $2MM each.
In September, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote the Reds' number one goal is to add a middle-of-the-order hitter at left field, third base, shortstop, or center field. The Reds have solid incumbents at each spot, led by Alonso, Rolen, Zack Cozart, and Drew Stubbs. Grady Sizemore could be an interesting free agent target, otherwise, those are tough positions to fill with affordable middle-of-the-order bats through any means.
The rotation is another big need, one Jocketty tried to address by checking in on Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields at the trade deadline. The Reds are deep in fourth and fifth starter types, said pitching coach Bryan Price in September, but they need a number two type at the front. The Reds have starters with good stuff, but their most dynamic young pitchers seem unlikely to rack up 200 innings. Chapman will probably get a look, but he's a wild card if there ever was one.
The Reds have trade bait all over the place with their depth at catcher, interesting young starters, and promising position players in Alonso and Chris Heisey. Alonso is a first baseman by trade, but he's penciled in as a left fielder due to Votto's presence. If Alonso's big league debut this year was any indication, they're not going to find a better bat on the trade market. Perhaps a Votto trade will make sense a year from now and Alonso can play left field until then. The problem is the Reds can't acquire a front-rotation starter like Shields without starting their offer with Devin Mesoraco or Alonso. The Reds could match up well with the White Sox, who may listen on Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Carlos Quentin.
The Reds are likely to lose a top offensive catcher in Hernandez, but Mesoraco appears as one of few catching prospects able to replace his bat. An arbitration offer is probably in order for Hernandez, a Type A free agent.
The Reds' offense should remain strong, especially if they get more out of Stubbs or Rolen next year. Jocketty's big challenge is trading for an affordable front-line starter, especially since top chips Mesoraco and Alonso are penciled in for important roles next year.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers' ownership battle may be coming to a close, but Ned Colletti must endure uncertainty for one more offseason as he tries to improve the team's offense and sign a veteran starter.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Ted Lilly, SP: $25.5MM through 2013
- Chad Billingsley, SP: $35MM through 2014
- Juan Uribe, IF: $16MM through 2013
- Matt Guerrier, RP: $9.75MM through 2013
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Matt Kemp, CF: $16.3MM
- Andre Ethier, RF: $10.7MM
- Clayton Kershaw, SP: $8.4MM
- James Loney, 1B: $6.5MM (non-tender candidate)
- Hong-Chih Kuo, RP: $2.5MM (non-tender candidate)
- Tony Gwynn Jr., OF: $1.1MM (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Hiroki Kuroda (SP), Jonathan Broxton (RP), Casey Blake (3B), Juan Rivera (OF/1B), Jon Garland (SP), Rod Barajas (C), Jamey Carroll (2B/SS), Vicente Padilla (RP), Mike MacDougal (RP), Aaron Miles (2B/3B)
Dodgers fans hope the end is in sight for the battle over ownership of their team. The bankruptcy hearings begin on Halloween, as current Dodgers owner Frank McCourt seeks the ability to auction the team's television rights while Fox and MLB seek termination of McCourt's ownership. Josh Fisher of Dodger Divorce said selling the TV rights is McCourt's only path to survival as the team's owner. The hearings will certainly keep Fisher and the L.A. Times' Bill Shaikin busy, but there are still crucial player personnel decisions to make for the Dodgers this offseason.
Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said he has a basic idea of the team's budget. In September, he said his aim is improving the offense in "the most dramatic way," implying Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder could be targets. I just can't see the ownership situation resolved quickly enough for that to happen, though. Even if MLB does force the sale of the Dodgers, it'd take months to get new ownership approved. In the interim, it seems unrealistic for MLB to approve adding a massive amount of debt.
It'll be costly just for Colletti to resolve the Dodgers' internal business. Out of 209 arbitration eligible players, Kemp's settlement projects as the second-highest salary, Ethier's the fifth-highest, and Kershaw's the ninth-highest. Unless their salaries are reduced through multiyear deals, the trio could cost $35MM next year. If payroll is cautiously trimmed to say, $100MM for 2012, the Dodgers will have less than $20MM to work with to fill all kinds of holes.
Extensions for potential award winners Kershaw and Kemp should be Colletti's primary focus. We've seen top pitchers extended for about $30MM, but Kershaw might need $35MM just for his three arbitration years, and that might be a discount over going year-to-year. I think we'd be entering the $100MM range for a six year deal, which is incredible given that three of those would be arbitration years. Kemp's 2011 season could be under $15MM in a multiyear deal, but each season thereafter should cost at least $20MM. There's no harm in Colletti laying groundwork now for either player, but ideally a prospective new owner would have final say in March. Kemp does not want to negotiate once his potential contract year begins.
A non-tender decision is due on Loney on December 12th, and one more season at around $6.5MM is the right move for the Dodgers. If they somehow later sign Pujols or Fielder, they could probably move Loney's contract before the season begins. Uribe is penciled in at third base and Dee Gordon at shortstop, leaving an opening at second. An offensive-minded player like Kelly Johnson could be a good fit over internal options Justin Sellers and Ivan DeJesus. Jerry Sands merits an extended look in left field, while Tim Federowicz and A.J. Ellis will probably sit behind the dish. Gwynn and Rivera could return as bench players.
The Dodgers' rotation could be a strength again, especially if Kuroda is re-signed. It'd be difficult to replace Kuroda without overpaying someone else on a multiyear deal, though Colletti could look to other starters coming over from Japan. Nathan Eovaldi would be the fifth starter. Colletti likes his bullpen, but he'll look to add a veteran reliever.
Kelly Johnson alone wouldn't fix the Dodgers' offense, though decent seasons from Ethier, Uribe, and Sands would help. Hopefully, the Dodgers' ownership situation becomes resolved by July. If the team is in contention at that point, Colletti can explore the trade market. The Dodgers' 2011-12 offseason will be overshadowed by the Frank McCourt drama, perhaps for the last time.
John Lackey To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Red Sox righty John Lackey will undergo Tommy John surgery, new GM Ben Cherington announced today. WEEI's Rob Bradford reported Lackey's visit to Dr. Lewis Yocum earlier today, noting that the surgery causes a sixth-year option to vest for Lackey at the league minimum. This is a good thing for Boston – it reduces the average annual value of the contract from $16.5MM to $13.8MM, creating luxury tax savings.
Lackey had a disastrous 2011 season. His 6.41 ERA was the sixth-highest in baseball history over the last sixty years, given a minimum of 160 innings. He had a rough year with the media as well.
The Red Sox likely were not counting on Lackey for anything in 2012, but the surgery eliminates any chance of a bad contract swap.
Twins Decline Option On Joe Nathan
The Twins announced today that they've declined their club option on reliever Joe Nathan. The option was worth $12.5MM, but the team will pay a $2MM buyout. GM Bill Smith said, "I spoke with Joe and his agent this morning, and expressed our interest in re-signing Joe. We will remain in contact with them as we move forward into the free agent process."
Nathan signed a four-year contract extension for $47MM in March of 2008, and the total remains the record for a reliever. Nathan, 36, had been dominant as the Twins' closer from 2004-09, racking up a 1.87 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, and 246 saves in 418 2/3 innings. He had Tommy John surgery in March of 2010, returning this year to mixed results. Further removed from the surgery, he'll be a popular free agent target on a one-year deal.
Free Agent And Trade Market For Second Basemen
The Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Dodgers may be in the market for second base help this offseason, and the market offers a good number of viable options.
Starting Second Basemen Available In Free Agency
As many as six free agent second basemen will likely be considered as starters: Kelly Johnson, Clint Barmes, Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Jamey Carroll, and Nick Punto. If Johnson were coming off his 2010 season, he'd be a lock for a multiyear deal. But given his struggles with Arizona this year, he might even prefer a one-year deal to rebuild value. Hill could prefer the same. Otherwise, Omar Infante's two-year, $8MM extension with the Marlins will be a target for most of these guys. Having shown an ability to play shortstop everyday, Barmes may be looking for more.
Thinking Outside The Box
Aside from Barmes, shortstops like Rafael Furcal, Yuniesky Betancourt, Ronny Cedeno, Alex Gonzalez, and Marco Scutaro could be signed as second basemen. Mark DeRosa and Carlos Guillen are other candidates. Enough teams need shortstops that I don't expect Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins to consider second base.
Quality Backups
Willie Bloomquist, Jerry Hairston Jr., Aaron Miles, Ramon Santiago, and John McDonald should be able to find big league deals for utility jobs.
Non-Tender Candidates
Non-tender candidates abound. Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Chris Getz, and Adam Rosales are just a few middle infielders who may be cut loose. Their tenuous tender situations make them trade candidates as well.
Other Trade Candidates
Jeff Keppinger is a prime trade candidate, if the Giants are confident in Freddy Sanchez. The Rockies' Chris Nelson is another name to consider. If Gordon Beckham doesn't show signs of improvement, he could become available.
Check out the full free agent list, as well as our articles on the markets at catcher and first base.
Coaching, Front Office News: Eiland, Blue Jays, Feinstein
The latest on the coaching and managerial front:
- The Royals announced the hiring of Dave Eiland as their new pitching coach. Eiland served as the Yankees' pitching coach from 2008-10 and spent this year as a special assistant with the Rays.
- The Blue Jays announced an amendment to their employee permission policy: they will not grant permission for lateral moves. GM Alex Anthopoulos will be holding a press conference today, presumably on this topic. The implication is that the Red Sox will not be allowed to interview John Farrell for their managerial position.
- Rays director of baseball operations Dan Feinstein has joined the Athletics as their director of pro scouting and baseball development, according to the team.
Theo Epstein Press Conference Quotes
We've heard a lot from new Cubs president Theo Epstein today, as the team held a press conference this morning.
- "It truly feels great to be a Cub today," said Epstein at the introductory press conference. He considers his new job "the ultimate challenge."
- "Our goal will be to build the best scouting department in the game," explained Epstein. He stressed "sustained success" and noted that the Cubs' 2011 draft marked a "clear philosophical change" in his eyes. Epstein will also be able to grow the Cubs' baseball operations staff.
- As a first step with the Cubs managerial situation, Epstein intends to meet with Mike Quade in person over the next week. Epstein also intends to "take a creative look at the big league team."
- A third party may ultimately be required to determine the compensation Boston receives, but Epstein considers the teams' relations to be amicable.
- Cubs owner Tom Ricketts said today in a welcome statement, "In his new role, Theo will be given the resources and opportunity to build a strong foundation and the winning culture that our organization and fans deserve." At the process conference Ricketts added, "I simply cannot imagine a better person for this job than Theo Epstein."
- The following bullet points are highlights from an op-ed piece Epstein wrote for the Boston Globe. Epstein writes, "The reason I am leaving has nothing to do with power, pressure, money, or relationships. It has nothing to do with September, either." Instead, he points to a Bill Walsh suggestion that coaches and executives should seek change after ten years with a team, to create a new challenge for the individual and a fresh perspective for the team. Initially, the plan was for assistant GM Ben Cherington to take over the Red Sox after the 2012 season, and those discussions with ownership began this summer while the team was thriving.
- The combination of the Red Sox needing a new manager for the long-term and the challenge presented by the Cubs prompted Epstein to leave earlier than he initially planned. Epstein has complete confidence in Cherington to address Boston's clubhouse issues. Epstein admits, "Things did indeed happen in the clubhouse that do not have a place at the Red Sox or anywhere in sports. But the reports about team-wide apathy and indulgence are exaggerated."
- Epstein feels that Cherington is more prepared for the GM job than Epstein was nine years ago, and the Red Sox "remain one of the preeminent organizations in baseball, with an extremely bright future."
Agents Predict Darvish’s Posting Fee, Contract
As of a few days ago, Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Yu Darvish was undecided about asking his team to post him as a means of moving to MLB for the 2012 season. The 25-year-old righty posted a 1.44 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 0.19 HR/9 in 232 innings this year, and there will be a bidding frenzy if the Fighters post him.
In the posting system, MLB teams have until a certain date to submit bids for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the player. MLB GMs have the difficult task of choosing a bid that will be the highest but won't be significantly higher than the second-best bid. After the posting fee, the team must then sign the player to a contract. The player's only leverage is to return to Japan, in which case the posting fee is returned to the MLB team and the process is over for the year.
Five years ago, the Red Sox won the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka for $51,111,111. They then negotiated a six-year, $52MM contract with Scott Boras, bringing the total commitment to $103,111,111. As we've seen with Boras' draft pick negotiations, he uses what little leverage he has to maximum advantage. There was a point in the Dice-K talks where an agreement with the Red Sox did not seem likely. Last year, the Athletics won the right to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma for $19.1MM, but the Rakuten Golden Eagles had to return the posting fee when the A's were unable to reach an agreement with agent Don Nomura. Darvish is represented by Nomura and Arn Tellem of Wasserman Media Group.
The Fighters have a lot to gain financially by posting Darvish now. Sure, they could wait until after the '12 or '13 seasons, but Darvish is healthy and at the top of his game right now. Agents I spoke to were divided on whether Matsuzaka's posting fee is relevant information in trying to predict what Darvish would require. Misinformation abounds from the Dice-K posting period, but most reports suggested $20-30MM bids until the Red Sox came in over $51MM. Only the Seibu Lions know for sure what the second-highest bid was, but in hindsight Boston might have been able to win the rights at $35MM.
Last week, I polled five agents and one team executive about Darvish's potential posting fee and contract. Guesses on the posting fee ranged from $30-55MM, with the team executive making the highest prediction. The average of the six guesses was $45MM. As for the contract, most people predicted a five or six-year deal in the $72-75MM range. One agent wondered if the winning team will "try to force some options down his throat," especially if it's the Blue Jays.
The bottom line: everyone I talked to expects a minimum of a $100MM commitment to acquire Darvish if he's posted this year. It's possible we'll see as many as six $100MM commitments this offseason, not including extensions.