Dodgers Decline Options On Garland, Blake
The Dodgers announced on Twitter today that they've declined club options on starter Jon Garland and third baseman Casey Blake, and also outrighted Eugenio Velez to Triple-A. Typically option decisions are announced after the World Series, but Garland and Blake were obvious choices.
For Garland, the Dodgers chose a $500K buyout over an $8MM club option. Garland had signed for a below-market guarantee of $5MM in November, but a vesting option in the contract became moot when the righty when down for an oblique injury in March and shoulder surgery in July. Garland, now 32, had previously been a lock for around 200 innings per season. If Garland is healthy, his agents at LSW Baseball should have no problem finding a one-year deal worth a few million plus incentives, along with a back-end rotation job.
The Dodgers chose a $1.25MM buyout over a $6MM club option on Blake, finishing a contract signed in December of '08. The 38-year-old Jim McDowell client hit .252/.342/.371 in 239 plate appearances. Blake's season was shortened by a ribcage, elbow, and neck injuries, culminating in September neck surgery. McDowell told MLBTR recently that his client should be "100% for 2012." Blake is also looking at a one-year deal, probably of the part-time variety. You can check out MLBTR's list of all the 2012 free agents here.
Velez, now the record-holder for a non-pitcher going hitless in a season with an 0-for-37 showing, was removed from the 40-man roster. Once free agents Aaron Miles, Jamey Carroll, Hiroki Kuroda, Rod Barajas, Juan Rivera, Vicente Padilla, Jonathan Broxton, and Mike MacDougal are subtracted, the Dodgers' tally will be down to 30.
Poll: How Much Will C.C. Sabathia Get?
The prevailing opinion is that Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia will opt out of the remaining four years and $92MM remaining on his contract, since he could easily get more money or years. Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wonders if this will result in the Yankees making another Alex Rodriguez-like overpay, committing at least $125MM over five years in total.
On the high end, though, Sabathia could attempt to top the guarantee he received three years ago: $161MM over seven years. Since that offseason, Sabathia has added three 230+ inning seasons to his resume, never posting an ERA over 3.37 in a season. He's still only 31 years old. Last winter Cliff Lee was 32 upon signing a five-year, $120MM deal with the Phillies. At the time, we heard that Lee turned down offers guaranteeing $148MM over seven years from the Yankees and $138MM over six years (including heavy deferrals) from the Rangers.
There's more money in the game than there was three years ago, and Sabathia's resume is at least as strong as Lee's was. Sabathia won't be able to match the 2.13 postseason ERA Lee carried into that offseason, but with a 3.47 mark in ten Yankees postseason starts C.C. hasn't been bad. Sabathia's postseason work outside of '09 has been subpar, but I'm not sure that will affect the free agent bidding. I see Sabathia's ceiling as Lee's $24MM salary over another seven-year term, which would be a new record for a pitcher at $168MM. As with Lee, that seventh year will probably be a sticking point for all involved teams. Let's hear what you think about the total dollars in today's poll.
C.C. Sabathia's new contract will be worth...
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$121-130MM 18% (1,448)
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$141-150MM 14% (1,125)
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Over $170MM 14% (1,120)
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$131-140MM 12% (980)
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$151-160MM 12% (926)
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$100-110MM 11% (902)
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$161-170MM 10% (780)
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$111-$120MM 9% (722)
Total votes: 8,003
Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres
The Padres are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Clayton Richard, Jeff Fulchino, Luke Gregerson, Will Venable, Nick Hundley, Joe Thatcher, Rob Johnson
- Second time: Chase Headley, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, Chris Denorfia, Alberto Gonzalez
- Third time: Jeremy Hermida
With 13 arbitration eligible players, the Padres have the biggest class of the 23 teams we've reviewed to date. It's not a terribly expensive group, however, with no individual projected to exceed a $3MM salary.
The Padres have plenty of non-tender candidates. September waiver claim Fulchino had a rough year; he'd earn $800K or so. Others on the bubble include Thatcher ($800K), Johnson ($700K), Gonzalez ($800K), and Hermida ($500K). There are reasons to retain several of them. Thatcher had a lost 2011 season due to April shoulder surgery, but a strong 2010. Gonzalez plays capable defense. Hermida was a late waiver claim who may merit a look in 2012.
Headley ($3MM), Stauffer ($3MM), Richard ($2MM), Moseley ($1.8MM), Venable ($1.8MM), Hundley ($1.6MM), Gregerson ($1.3MM), and Denorfia ($1.2MM) are on firmer ground. Richard and Moseley had decent but low-strikeout seasons cut short this summer due to shoulder surgery. There are also concerns with guys like Venable and Gregerson, but the prices aren't scary.
I don't expect all 13 players to be retained, but their combined salaries project for about $19.3MM. The Padres have just $13.55MM in 2012 contractual commitments, mostly from their middle infield. Adding the arbitration eligibles puts the team at $33MM in commitments next year, before minimum salary players are considered. Next year's payroll is expected to be in the $53-55MM range, leaving around $20MM in 2012 salaries for GM Jed Hoyer to allocate toward another group of low-risk, moderate reward free agents.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Theo Epstein And Starting Pitching
Theo Epstein was hired as GM of the Red Sox on November 25th, 2002, so he's coming up on nine years at the helm. The fatal flaw with Epstein's disappointing 2011 club was starting pitching, which prompted me to investigate his work assembling rotations.
2003 – Won wild card. 4.30 rotation ERA ranked fifth in AL.
- Derek Lowe – acquired via trade by Dan Duquette in 1997.
- Tim Wakefield – signed as a free agent by Duquette in '95.
- Pedro Martinez – acquired by Duquette in '97.
- John Burkett – signed as a free agent by Duquette in '01.
- Casey Fossum – drafted by Duquette in '99.
Epstein had nothing to do with the '03 rotation, so we can strike it from his record.
2004 – Won World Series. 4.31 rotation ERA ranked third in AL.
- Curt Schilling – acquired by Epstein in '03.
- Pedro Martinez
- Tim Wakefield
- Derek Lowe
- Bronson Arroyo – claimed off waivers by Epstein in '03.
Epstein deserves credit for 40% of this group, and Schilling was of course crucial.
2005 – Won wild card. 4.56 rotation ERA ranked seventh in AL.
- Tim Wakefield – He signed an extension in '05 with a recurring $4MM club option, so perhaps he became part of Epstein's ledger here or with the '06 season.
- Bronson Arroyo
- Matt Clement – signed by Epstein in '04
- David Wells – signed by Epstein in '04.
- Curt Schilling
- Wade Miller – signed by Epstein in '04.
This was not an impressive group, and most of them can be attributed to Epstein.
2006 – Missed playoffs. 5.00 rotation ERA ranked 11th in AL.
- Josh Beckett - Seth Mnookin's 2006 book Feeding the Monster mainly credits president Larry Lucchino for the November '05 Beckett trade, as Epstein was on hiatus. The book says assistant GM Jed Hoyer was in constant consultation with Epstein at the time and was wary of making the deal. Beckett had a rough '06 season, during which Epstein extended him potentially through 2010.
- Curt Schilling
- Tim Wakefield
- Jon Lester – The 2002 draftee officially goes on the ledger of interim GM Mike Port, though Epstein was in the organization as assistant GM by that point.
- Matt Clement
- Kyle Snyder – claimed off waivers by Epstein in '06.
2007 – Won World Series. 4.21 rotation ERA ranked second in AL.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka – acquired by Epstein in '06 via the posting system.
- Tim Wakefield
- Josh Beckett
- Curt Schilling
- Julian Tavarez – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '06.
- Jon Lester
2008 – Won wild card. 4.02 rotation ERA ranked third in AL.
- Jon Lester
- Tim Wakefield
- Daisuke Matsuzaka
- Josh Beckett
- Clay Buchholz
2009 – Won wild card. 4.63 rotation ERA ranked eighth in AL.
- Josh Beckett
- Jon Lester – Prior to this season, Epstein signed Lester potentially through 2014.
- Brad Penny – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '08.
- Tim Wakefield
- Clay Buchholz – drafted by Epstein in '05.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka
- John Smoltz – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '09.
2010 – Missed playoffs. 4.17 rotation ERA ranked sixth in AL.
- John Lackey – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '09.
- Jon Lester
- Clay Buchholz
- Daisuke Matsuzaka
- Josh Beckett – A new extension for Beckett was completed by Epstein prior to this season, running through 2014.
- Tim Wakefield – Wakefield's recurring option had been exercised three times. Prior to this season, Epstein hammered out a new two-year extension.
2011 – Missed playoffs. 4.49 rotation ERA ranked ninth in AL.
- Jon Lester
- Josh Beckett
- John Lackey
- Tim Wakefield
- Clay Buchholz
- Andrew Miller – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '10.
Epstein has put together eight rotations in his time as Red Sox GM. Three could comfortably be described as above-average. Schilling and Arroyo, his best starting pitching acquisitions, came eight years ago. So far Buchholz has been the only drafted starting pitcher to make an impact in one of Epstein's rotations, with '06 pick Justin Masterson becoming a major piece of the '09 trade for Victor Martinez. While Matsuzaka has been disappointing as a whole, he made major contributions in '07 and '08. Epstein also deserves credit for extending Wakefield, Beckett, and Lester.
Free agent starting pitchers have been a problem, with significant dollars spent on Lackey, Clement, Penny, and Smoltz. And for a $103MM commitment, Dice-K has not paid off.
The Red Sox seem to have relative stability in their recent rotations, and Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz will be part of the 2012 group. Still, a major acquisition seems likely this offseason. For all of Epstein's positive contributions to the club, his ability to acquire good veteran starting pitching must be questioned.
Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Randy Wells, Blake DeWitt
- Second time: Geovany Soto
- Third time: Matt Garza, Jeff Baker, Koyie Hill
Hill is the most likely non-tender in this group. However, he'd only get a mild raise to $850K, and it's quite possible the Cubs keep him around due to defense, familiarity with the pitching staff, and other intangibles.
Wells ($2.2MM), Soto ($4MM), and Baker ($1.4MM) had disappointing seasons, but should be part of the 2012 club. DeWitt showed enough promise to be worth $1.2MM. Garza represents the Cubs' headline arbitration case, and we project $8.7MM for him. Jeremy Guthrie and John Danks will be current comparables for Garza. There is not much recent precedent for a pitcher with this type of track record to make it to his third arbitration year.
If the Cubs retain all six of their arbitration eligibles, we project $18.4MM in total salary. Assuming Ryan Dempster exercises his player option and Aramis Ramirez doesn't get a new contract prior to his option decision, the Cubs have around $91MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players. If payroll remains in the $134MM range, the Cubs would have around $40MM to spend in 2012 salaries.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Arbitration Eligibles: Washington Nationals
The Nationals are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Tyler Clippard, Jordan Zimmermann
- Second time: John Lannan, Michael Morse, Doug Slaten
- Third time: Tom Gorzelanny, Jesus Flores
Slaten battled a sore elbow this year, tossing only 16 1/3 innings in the Majors. At $900K he'd be cheap to retain, but he is a candidate to be non-tendered. Flores' shoulder injury knocked him down the Nationals' catching depth chart, and they could look to trade him before the December 12th non-tender deadline. We project a salary of around $800K, so some team will likely take a chance if the Nationals don't. Gorzelanny cleared waivers in August, indicating no team found him a good value at a $2.1MM salary this year. Next year it'd be around $2.8MM through arbitration. His strikeout and walk rates in 15 starts this year were solid, though his suitors may wait out the Nats to see if they tender him a contract.
Lannan ($4.8MM), Morse ($3.7MM), Zimmermann ($1.8MM), and Clippard ($1.7MM) all project to be relatively affordable and part of the 2012 Nationals. The four players project to earn a total of $12MM next year.
Including that $12MM, the Nationals have about $57MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players. Holding payroll steady at this year's $68MM wouldn't leave much flexibility, but the Nats are capable of going beyond that number in their offseason quest to add a starting pitcher and an outfielder.
Red Sox Rumors: Epstein, Cherington, Managerial Candidates
The Red Sox appear headed for an interesting offseason; here's the latest.
- A Major League source close to Theo Epstein told ESPN's Gordon Edes it's "50-50" the Red Sox GM would leave for the right situation. Edes hears Epstein "believes in honoring a contract that has a year remaining," yet owner John Henry "would not stand in the way if Epstein wanted to pursue another opportunity." Edes feels that while giving Epstein a club president title would be a promotion, the business aspect of that role has never held appeal for him. If Epstein leaves, Edes has a source who would be very surprised if current assistant GM Ben Cherington didn't replace him.
- Edes believes that if the Cubs or Angels intend to make a move for Epstein, it will come as early as this week. The Red Sox "will likely ask for stiff compensation if they permit Epstein to leave for the Cubs, though an extension is still possible," tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Sources are split on whether Angels owner Arte Moreno wants Epstein, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.
- Edes says the Red Sox have internally discussed Sandy Alomar Jr., Dave Martinez, Pete Mackanin, Ryne Sandberg, and Tony La Russa as candidates to replace Terry Francona as manager. It is tricky to have Epstein overseeing this process given his uncertainty, but Cherington is involved as well.
- In a must-read article, WEEI's Rob Bradford addresses the future of each Red Sox position player.
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
Expect a quiet offseason for the Astros, who conducted their fire sale in July. Intrigue may come from possible ownership, GM, and league changes.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Lee, LF/1B: $18.5MM through 2012, ten-and-five rights
- Wandy Rodriguez, SP: $25.5MM through 2013, 2014 club option becomes player option upon trade
- Brett Myers, SP: $14MM through 2012 unless '13 option vests
- Brandon Lyon, RP: $5.5MM through 2012
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- J.A. Happ, SP: $2.3MM
- Alberto Arias, RP: $700K (non-tender candidate)
- Humberto Quintero, C: $1.2MM
Free Agents
- Clint Barmes (unranked SS), Jason Michaels (unranked OF)
As the worst team in baseball, the 2012 Astros seem lacking just about everywhere. Things may get worse before they get better. Second baseman Jose Altuve, starting pitchers Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles, and closer Mark Melancon are bright spots who should be around for a while. Versatile 27-year-old Matt Downs had a nice second half in 2011. However, there may not be many reasons to watch this team in 2012.
The Astros could have over $20MM to work with for the 2012 season if they hold payroll steady, as our arbitration eligibles post shows. There's no need to spend the entire surplus on free agents for a team going nowhere. I'd tinker with the bullpen by bringing in a few upside relievers on one-year deals with an eye on flipping them midseason. Failing that, the 'Stros could at least hope to snag a supplemental pick or two after the season.
Every team needs veterans, but the four the Astros have under contract are somewhat expensive. Rodriguez may be the only one with trade value, but with a potential $36MM owed over 2012-14, the Astros wouldn't get elite prospects in return. There has to be a middle ground between simply dumping the contract, which the Astros decided against when the Rockies claimed him in August, and making outlandish player demands. If Wandy is dealt, the Astros could reinvest in a more affordable veteran starter.
Jim Crane hasn't yet been approved as the next owner of the Astros and his group will have the option to opt out of purchasing the team from Drayton McLane on November 30th. If MLB resolves its questions about past charges against two of Crane's companies, the remaining hurdle would be convincing the new owner to join the AL West. The Angels, A's, Mariners, and Rangers would welcome the Astros, who appear several years away from contention. Should Crane decide GM Ed Wade is not the man to continue rebuilding efforts, the goal becomes finding a patient executive with great scouting acumen. For the Astros' sake, hopefully hard slotting is not part of the next collective bargaining agreement.
2010-11 Reverse-Engineered Elias Rankings
Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2010-11 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics. Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher). Draft pick compensation may change with the upcoming collective bargaining agreement, though the old rules are expected to stay in place for the upcoming offseason and 2012 draft.
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at his 2010-11 projections, to tide you over until the official ones come out from Elias. There are a lot of moving parts in reverse-engineering the Elias rankings, so these are subject to change if we find errors. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed during the season's final week.
White Sox To Acquire Martinez, Marinez For Guillen
THURSDAY, 1:15pm: The White Sox announced that they assigned the contract of right-hander Ricardo Andres to the Marlins to complete the deal. Andres appeared in 12 games at Rookie Ball this year in his first professional season. The 20-year-old posted a 6.32 ERA in 15 2/3 innings, striking out 11.
TUESDAY, 1:36pm: The White Sox will also acquire reliever Jhan Marinez, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Marinez, 23, posted a 3.57 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 6.5 BB/9, and 1.1 HR/9 in 58 Double-A relief innings this year. Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked Marinez fourth among Marlins prospects, citing a "combination of great stuff and immaturity." Marinez has a closer repertoire, wrote BA.
10:21am: The White Sox are expected to acquire infielder Osvaldo Martinez and a minor league pitcher from the Marlins for manager Ozzie Guillen, tweets MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez. Guillen was released from his contract by the White Sox yesterday, with the Sox retaining compensation rights if he manages another team in 2012.
Martinez, a 23-year-old shortstop, hit .245/.296/.322 in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this year. Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked him fifth among Marlins prospects, saying he profiles as a "solid No. 2 hitter" with a strong arm, good instincts, and soft hands at shortstop. At that time, BA saw a future as a versatile but quality utilityman the worst-case scenario for Martinez.
The last player-manager trade in baseball took place nine years ago, when the Devil Rays traded outfielder Randy Winn to the Mariners for Antonio Perez as well as the right to negotiate with manager Lou Piniella.