Free Agent Stock Watch: Freddy Garcia
Among free agent starters with at least 100 innings pitched in 2011, C.J. Wilson, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Buehrle unsurprisingly comprise the top three in ERA. Erik Bedard snags the fourth spot with a 3.62 ERA, the bigger surprise being the lefty's health rather than his performance. But just a hair behind Bedard in the free agent ERA rankings is a man who had to sign a minor league deal in late January: Freddy Garcia.
After the 2006 season Garcia had tallied 200+ innings in six consecutive years. Seeking a front-rotation arm, Phillies GM Pat Gillick acquired Garcia from the White Sox for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez at the Winter Meetings that year. Biceps soreness set in that spring for Garcia, who began the year on the DL. The big righty threw 56 innings for the '07 Phillies, at which point a serious shoulder injury was diagnosed. He had surgery in late August, and became a hot commodity as a free agent a year later. Garcia gave the '08 Tigers three September starts and planned to participate in the Venezuelan Winter League to further prove his health.
Garcia's shoulder flared up at that point, but he was healthy enough to land a $1.5MM base salary with $6.5MM in incentives from the Mets in January of '09. Mets GM Omar Minaya convinced Garcia to accept a minor league assignment to begin that season, but he was released by the end of April. It was a low point for Garcia, who signed back with the White Sox in June of that year on a minor league deal. Garcia closed out his season with nine starts for the Sox, pitching well enough to prompt the team to exercise a $1MM option in October.
In 2010 we saw a full season of the new Garcia. The results: a 4.64 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, and 40.7% groundball rate in 157 innings. It wasn't enough to merit a big league deal, so the Yankees signed him to a minor league contract in January and he soon became the favorite to be the team's fourth starter. An August finger injury cost Garcia a few starts, but he ended up with similar numbers: a 5.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, and 36.4% groundball rate in 146 2/3 innings. If you count a minor league start and a postseason start, Garcia pitched 156 innings.
SIERA says Garcia's skills suggest an ERA around 4.28, rather than his actual 3.62 mark. That's still an improvement over 2010. Garcia slightly improved his strikeout rate, perhaps due to some changes in his mix of pitches. Garcia still profiles as a back-end starter, but his new level of performance should result in a guarantee at least matching the $3MM given to the likes of Brad Penny and Brandon Webb last winter.
Garcia appears to have earned over $4MM this year including incentives, and the Yankees must decide whether to offer arbitration if his fringe Type B status holds up. Perhaps the Yankees can convince him to decline arbitration, as otherwise the process could lead to a $5-6MM guarantee should the pitcher accept. Garcia has shown he can provide that amount of value, but despite the lower ERA this year the market perception would probably put him below a $5MM base salary as a free agent.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler
- Second time: Ian Stewart
- Third time: Ryan Spilborghs
Having signed Troy Tulowitzki, Jason Hammel, Matt Lindstrom, Chris Iannetta, and Carlos Gonzalez to multiyear deals, the Rockies are left with only four arbitration eligible players.
Stewart and Spilborghs are non-tender candidates. Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd recently said he's willing to give Stewart another opportunity, implying he will pay the $2MM or so that will be required if the third baseman is tendered a contract in December. Two months remain until the non-tender deadline, however. There is a case to keep Spilborghs at an approximate $2MM despite his 2011 struggles. The 32-year-old had been a very useful fourth outfielder prior to this year and may have trade value at that price.
As a potential Super Two, Fowler projects to fall in the $2MM range as well. Smith, who would be around $2.6MM, has been mentioned as potential trade bait should the Rockies sign an outfielder.
Cot's Baseball Contracts shows the Rockies have about $61MM owed to players under contract for next year. If all four arbitration eligibles are retained, they'd be around $70MM before accounting for minimum salary players. The Rockies would have around $13MM in 2012 flexibility, though as much as $18MM more could be cleared if the team non-tenders or trades Stewart, Spilborghs, Smith, Huston Street, and Ty Wigginton.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
The Nationals aim to add an outfield bat and a starting pitcher this offseason, which might be enough to vault them into contention in 2012.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jayson Werth, RF: $114MM through 2017, full no-trade clause
- Ryan Zimmerman, 3B: $26MM through 2013
- Adam LaRoche, 1B: $9MM through 2012
- Stephen Strasburg, SP: $3MM through 2012
- Yunesky Maya, SP: $4MM through 2013
- Bryce Harper, OF: $3.15MM through 2015
- Sean Burnett, RP: $2.55MM through 2012
- Anthony Rendon, Matthew Purke also on Major League deals
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Tyler Clippard, RP: $1.7MM
- Jordan Zimmermann, SP: $1.8MM
- John Lannan, SP: $4.8MM
- Michael Morse, 1B: $3.7MM
- Doug Slaten, RP: $900K (non-tender candidate)
- Tom Gorzelanny, SP/RP: $2.8MM (non-tender candidate)
- Jesus Flores, C: $800K (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Ivan Rodriguez (unranked C), Jonny Gomes (unranked LF), Rick Ankiel (unranked CF), Todd Coffey (unranked RP), Livan Hernandez (unranked SP), Chien-Ming Wang (unranked SP), Alex Cora (unranked IF), Laynce Nix (unranked LF)
It's about time the Nationals become a bona fide contender. The heart of the batting order can be elite with Zimmerman, Morse, and Werth. The rotation has front-end arms in Strasburg and Zimmermann, even if neither is a horse yet. The back end of the bullpen is in place too, with Drew Storen, Clippard, and Henry Rodriguez. This is the foundation of a playoff team, but GM Mike Rizzo must make several more significant acquisitions to make the Nationals a contender in 2012. Rizzo recently told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, "I think we're an outfield bat away and a starting pitcher away from really being a contender in the division."
If Strasburg and Zimmermann combine for, say, 350 regular season innings in 2012, it'd be ideal to make up that deficiency with an innings-eating ace. Obviously, those are in high demand. Free agents C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson fit the bill, while James Shields would be a high-end trade target. In the next tier, potentially available starters such as Edwin Jackson, Jason Vargas, Mark Buehrle, Jeremy Guthrie, and Brett Myers could gobble up 200 innings at a respectable ERA. I don't like the idea of trading Lannan; the Nationals need the innings he could provide as a reasonably-priced fourth starter. Catcher Jesus Flores represents more expendable trade bait, though his value is at a low point.
Assuming they believe in the second-half performance of shortstop Ian Desmond, the Nationals are in good shape in the middle infield and at catcher. Center field continues to represent the biggest up-the-middle question for the club. Rizzo could renew talks for Twins center fielder Denard Span, who is potentially signed through 2015. Otherwise, Rizzo could go for a stopgap solution like B.J. Upton or Coco Crisp and keep Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury in the back of his mind as future free agent possibilities. Using Werth in center is another option, at least in the short-term.
Agent Scott Boras will surely try to sell the Nationals on the idea of signing Prince Fielder for first base and using Morse in left field. Fielder doesn't gel with the team's primary short-term or long-term needs. They have a $9MM commitment with first baseman LaRoche next year and impending extension talks for Zimmerman. Committing $100MM to C.J. Wilson would be one thing, but Fielder could require twice as much.
One more item on the Nationals' to-do list is to name their manager for 2012. Davey Johnson is widely expected to keep the job, but the team has until the end of the month to decide.
Are the Nationals looking to go all-in for 2012, or just make marginal improvements and let Bryce Harper and other talented young players close the gap whenever they're ready? A healthy bump to a $100MM payroll would give the team $40MM+ in 2012 flexibility, enough for two starting pitchers and an outfielder, which could result in the Nationals' first playoff appearance.
Kouzmanoff Elects Free Agency
THURSDAY: Kouzmanoff has elected free agency after clearing waivers, MLBTR has learned. Word is that multiple teams are interested in signing him to a big league deal.
TUESDAY: The Rockies are in the process of outrighting third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff from the roster, MLBTR has learned. The 30-year-old third baseman is expected to reach free agency once he clears waivers.
The alternative for Colorado would have been to tender Kouzmanoff a contract and pay him at least $3.8MM for 2012. Since that's not in the cards, they're removing him from the 40-man roster now rather than wait until the December 12th non-tender deadline.
The Rockies had acquired Kouzmanoff on August 25th, giving him a 27-game trial for the remainder of the season. He has a .243/.284/.389 line for 2010-11, failing to match the moderate power he showed in San Diego. The offensive issues will hurt Kouzmanoff's earning power, though his defense is above-average according to UZR.
AL East Links: Damon, MacPhail, Granderson
Four of the AL East's teams are in offseason mode, while the Yankees prepare for the deciding ALDS game five against the Tigers tomorrow. Non-Red Sox links from the division:
- B.J. Upton and Johnny Damon hope to return to the Rays next year, they told Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. Damon has a say as a free agent, while Upton is under the Rays' control as an arbitration eligible player.
- Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun is starting to think Andy MacPhail could return as the Orioles' president in 2012.
- The Yankees' metrics have Curtis Granderson as an above-average defensive outfielder, GM Brian Cashman told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- Andrew Stoeten took a look at the Blue Jays' infield over at Drunk Jays Fans.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are at a crossroads this offseason, as they seek a new GM and face the temptation of adding more big free agent contracts.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Alfonso Soriano, LF: $54MM through 2014, full no-trade clause
- Carlos Zambrano, SP: $18MM through 2012, full no-trade clause
- Marlon Byrd, CF: $6.5MM through 2012
- Carlos Marmol, RP: $16.8MM through 2013
- Sean Marshall, RP: $3.1MM through 2012
Contract Options
- Aramis Ramirez, 3B: $16MM mutual option with $2MM buyout
- Ryan Dempster, SP: $14MM player option
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Randy Wells, SP: $2.2MM
- Blake DeWitt, 2B: $1.2MM
- Geovany Soto, C: $4MM
- Matt Garza, SP: $8.7MM
- Jeff Baker, UT IF/OF: $1.4MM
- Koyie Hill, C: $850K (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Carlos Pena (Type B 1B), John Grabow (unranked RP), Kerry Wood (Type B RP), Rodrigo Lopez (unranked SP), Ramon Ortiz (unranked RP), Reed Johnson (unranked UT OF)
The Cubs were a $134MM disaster in 2011. Despite all their spending the team hasn't reached the playoffs since '08. This summer they fired longtime GM Jim Hendry, whose teams made the playoffs in three of nine seasons. Owner Tom Ricketts seeks a more analytically-inclined GM to craft the roster. His other criteria include a commitment to player development and a track record of success. Ricketts has pledged silence during the ongoing search, but reports suggest he's initially targeting current GMs such as Theo Epstein and Andrew Friedman. The job security of Mike Quade is in question as well, as a new GM may want to hire a new manager.
The new GM will have to spend free agent dollars wisely, which was often a problem for Hendry in recent years. A steady payroll for 2012 could give the Cubs a hefty $40MM to work with in 2012 salaries. The possibility of a quick turnaround tempts Ricketts, who referenced the Diamondbacks' success in a recent interview. The D'Backs were fairly restrained in free agency last winter, but the Cubs are in a position to throw around some cash in the coming months. The potential areas to upgrade are plentiful, with openings at the infield corners, right field, the rotation, and in the bullpen.
The Cubs may have to make a concession at third base. The opportunity to re-sign Ramirez — easily the best free agent third baseman available — to a below-market contract hasn't motivated them, and the team's offense will suffer without him. The first base market is appealing, with superstars Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder options to take up more than half of the Cubs' payroll flexibility. With such a clear rotation need, though, the Cubs could lower their sights at first base and re-sign Pena or pursue Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer's versatility could be a nice match for the Cubs, who have openings at all his positions.
The Cubs appear intent on unloading Zambrano, whose performance is probably worth a few million dollars to some team. Chone Figgins could be a reasonable target given the Cubs' third base vacancy and the limited options at that position, though the Mariners would have to be willing to take another potential head case from the Cubs. Assuming Dempster returns, he'll join Garza and Wells in the rotation. If a quick fix is the goal the Cubs would be best-served by shopping in the high-end section of the market: C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, or Yu Darvish. On the other hand, signing any of the potential $100MM+ players this offseason would hardly break the Cubs' cycle of piling on burdensome contracts.
I can't picture the Cubs slashing payroll given their attendance and rabid fanbase, but I'm also not convinced they're going to come away with Pujols, Fielder, Sabathia, Wilson, or Darvish. With so many needs, the Cubs could easily spread their surplus among four or five veterans. Other big-market teams have shown an ability to contend and improve the farm system simultaneously, a strategy the Cubs appeared to finally initiate with a slew of over-slot signings in the June draft.
Rockies Rumors: Stewart, Wright, Headley, Alvarez
The Rockies pick tenth in next year's draft, a pick that will be protected if they sign a Type A free agent who turned down arbitration this offseason. The latest on the team, from Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post:
- Kevin Kouzmanoff is unlikely to return to the Rockies next year. MLBTR reported yesterday that the team is in the process of outrighting the third baseman. Ian Stewart will get another shot at the third base job if he "makes baseball his first priority from the start of the winter until the end of it," GM Dan O'Dowd told Renck. The Rockies will need to make a decision on Stewart by the December 12th non-tender deadline though. Tendering him a contract probably means paying him around $2.2MM again.
- Opposing executives expect O'Dowd to aggressively pursue Mets third baseman David Wright. Otherwise Renck expects the Rockies to cast a wide net, including the Padres' Chase Headley and the Pirates' Pedro Alvarez but not free agent Aramis Ramirez. I have a hard time imagining the Padres sending Headley to their division rival; the two teams haven't matched up for an offseason trade since the Rockies' inaugural season.
- The Rockies are looking to trade Ty Wigginton even it means eating some of the $4.5MM owed to him.
- Renck reiterates that the Rockies seek an innings eater this offseason.
Red Sox Rumors: Managerial Candidates, Epstein, Pitching
The Red Sox are in the news every day right now; here's the latest…
- The Sox have not finalized a list of managerial candidates to interview, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford. Name candidates such as Joe Torre, Tony La Russa, and Bobby Valentine are not thought to be on Boston's list, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. Instead, the top candidates appear to be Dave Martinez, Pete Mackanin, and Sandy Alomar Jr. It seems possible that the Red Sox will have to go head-to-head with the White Sox in their manager search. McAdam notes that as a member of the coaching staff of former manager Terry Francona, DeMarlo Hale is unlikely to be interviewed.
- The Cubs asked the Red Sox permission to speak with GM Theo Epstein, reported Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe yesterday. Red Sox management spent the day discussing the request; WCVB TV's Mike Lynch wrote that they could ask for compensation just to talk to Epstein, or they could collect compensation later.
- The relationship between Epstein and Red Sox president Larry Lucchino has gotten much better, according to Peter Gammons.
- Bradford takes an in-depth look at the Red Sox pitching staff. He finds the team unlikely to pursue a big-name starting pitcher. Bradford feels Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves could be starting candidates next year, Andrew Miller's $3MM option will be exercised, and Tim Wakefield might have to continue his career elsewhere.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Clint Barmes
Clint Barmes ranks eighth among all free agent position players in FanGraphs' wins above replacement for 2011, after Jimmy Rollins and Aramis Ramirez but before Michael Cuddyer and Marco Scutaro. Not bad for a guy I considered a non-tender candidate a year ago.
Barmes (pictured) ended up a bright spot for the Astros, mainly because he was able to play a capable shortstop for a thousand innings. That's where most of the WAR value comes from, rather than Barmes' .244/.312/.386 batting line. He played 123 games for the Astros, missing most of April due to a broken bone in his hand.
Credit the Astros for recognizing Barmes' value as a shortstop, a position he hadn't played regularly for Colorado once Troy Tulowitzki arrived. Barmes has said he'd like to return to the Astros, but GM Ed Wade isn't sure if the team's economic environment will allow it.
Omar Infante's two-year, $8MM extension with the Marlins seems a fair comparable for Barmes and the Astros. The Astros should at least offer arbitration to Barmes, assuming our projection that he just barely made the cut for Type B status is accurate. Above-average shortstops are hard to come by on the open market, though at least two others will be available in free agency this winter in Jose Reyes and Rollins. If the Astros fail to sign Barmes, he could be a more affordable alternative for the Twins, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Pirates, Cardinals, or Giants.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins
Prepare for the most exciting Marlins offseason in recent memory. With new manager Ozzie Guillen's arrival and the opening of the team's new ballpark, ownership wants to make 2012 unforgettable.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Hanley Ramirez, SS: $46.5MM through 2014
- Josh Johnson, SP: $27.5MM through 2013
- Ricky Nolasco, SP: $20.5MM through 2013
- John Buck, C: $12MM through 2013
- Omar Infante, 2B: $8MM through 2013
- Randy Choate, RP: $1.5MM through 2012
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Anibal Sanchez, SP: $5.9MM
- Juan Carlos Oviedo, RP: $5.8MM (non-tender candidate)
- Chris Volstad, SP: $2.6MM (non-tender candidate)
- Emilio Bonifacio, UT IF/OF: $1.9MM
- Clay Hensley, RP: $1.8M (non-tender candidate)
- Edward Mujica, RP: $1.6M
- Burke Badenhop, RP: $1.1MM
- Brian Sanches, RP: $1MM (non-tender candidate)
- John Baker, C: $800K (non-tender candidate)
- Donnie Murphy, UT IF: $600K (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Javier Vazquez (unranked SP), Jose Lopez (unranked UT IF), Greg Dobbs (unranked 3B)
To compete in the NL East next year, the Marlins will need improved starting pitching, offense, and health. Clearly, this team is looking for a fresh start in 2012 as they've been rebranded the Miami Marlins, and quote machine Guillen will man the helm. Most importantly, the team's payroll will be the largest in franchise history.
The six players under guaranteed contracts account for $49.75MM in salary, which is only $8MM shy of 2011's Opening Day payroll. Estimating the price of the club's ten-player arbitration class is a difficult exercise. I think we can pencil in Sanchez, Bonifacio, Mujica, and Badenhop for about $10.5MM, but that leaves the remaining six as candidates for non-tender or trade. Oviedo, formerly known as closer Leo Nunez prior to the revelation of his commitment of identity fraud, was already the highest-paid reliever in Marlins history in 2011. He could receive a $2MM+ raise and his 2012 team must request a visa for him to play next year, which could seal the fate of Oviedo, who was already on the bubble as a non-tender candidate. If Oviedo is not retained, the remaining arbitration eligibles won't be too costly.
Subtracting Oviedo and Vazquez and otherwise keeping the Marlins the same will already result in over $65MM in commitments, a franchise payroll record. Recently, a person close to the Marlins' front office told Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post the 2012 payroll could approach $100MM, as owner Jeffrey Loria aims to make 2012 unforgettable. If Loria follows through, the result would be an additional $35MM in payroll flexibility, which could be further expanded if the team trades Nolasco. However, with Vazquez and his 192 2/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball potentially headed for retirement and ace Josh Johnson limited to 60 1/3 innings in 2011 due to a shoulder injury, a Nolasco trade could add uncertainty to a situation already bursting with it.
I expect president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest to actively seek starting pitching, especially if he's bearish about the futures of Nolasco and Volstad. Several interesting rotation scenarios have been tossed around, from Guillen bringing in old Chicago friends Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins winning the bidding on C.J. Wilson. The bullpen should have many holdovers, but new blood is likely if Oviedo is non-tendered.
Questions in the Marlins' offense also abound, as center field and third base are unsettled. The team's top prospect Matt Dominguez wouldn't represent a "win-now" choice at the hot corner, but Aramis Ramirez, the one desirable free agent third baseman, could block Dominguez for three years. Coco Crisp is probably the only viable free agent option for center field, but the trade market may feature B.J. Upton and Denard Span. Internally, Bryan Petersen could hold equal appeal.
Another potential route for the Marlins would be signing a big-name free agent and trading Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison for pitching. Both players had respectable 2011 seasons, showing decent pop and on-base ability. Sanchez may still be on notice because the free agent market offers a pair of first-base superstars in Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. With Morrison, there's speculation that the outspoken left fielder's questionable August demotion could be a precursor to a trade. I think the Marlins have too many offensive question marks to sell low on LoMo.
The Marlins may achieve temporary media relevance with Guillen and a couple of pricey free agents, as they look to go all-in for the opening of their new stadium. Ultimately, though, the biggest additions to the 2012 club may be healthy seasons from Ramirez and Johnson.