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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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Expect a quiet offseason for the Astros, who conducted their fire sale in July.  Intrigue may come from possible ownership, GM, and league changes.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Lee, LF/1B: $18.5MM through 2012, ten-and-five rights
  • Wandy Rodriguez, SP: $25.5MM through 2013, 2014 club option becomes player option upon trade
  • Brett Myers, SP: $14MM through 2012 unless '13 option vests
  • Brandon Lyon, RP: $5.5MM through 2012 

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

As the worst team in baseball, the 2012 Astros seem lacking just about everywhere. Things may get worse before they get better.  Second baseman Jose Altuve, starting pitchers Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles, and closer Mark Melancon are bright spots who should be around for a while.  Versatile 27-year-old Matt Downs had a nice second half in 2011.  However, there may not be many reasons to watch this team in 2012.

The Astros could have over $20MM to work with for the 2012 season if they hold payroll steady, as our arbitration eligibles post shows.  There's no need to spend the entire surplus on free agents for a team going nowhere.  I'd tinker with the bullpen by bringing in a few upside relievers on one-year deals with an eye on flipping them midseason.  Failing that, the 'Stros could at least hope to snag a supplemental pick or two after the season.

Every team needs veterans, but the four the Astros have under contract are somewhat expensive.  Rodriguez may be the only one with trade value, but with a potential $36MM owed over 2012-14, the Astros wouldn't get elite prospects in return.  There has to be a middle ground between simply dumping the contract, which the Astros decided against when the Rockies claimed him in August, and making outlandish player demands.  If Wandy is dealt, the Astros could reinvest in a more affordable veteran starter.

Jim Crane hasn't yet been approved as the next owner of the Astros and his group will have the option to opt out of purchasing the team from Drayton McLane on November 30th.  If MLB resolves its questions about past charges against two of Crane's companies, the remaining hurdle would be convincing the new owner to join the AL West.  The Angels, A's, Mariners, and Rangers would welcome the Astros, who appear several years away from contention.  Should Crane decide GM Ed Wade is not the man to continue rebuilding efforts, the goal becomes finding a patient executive with great scouting acumen.  For the Astros' sake, hopefully hard slotting is not part of the next collective bargaining agreement.

2010-11 Reverse-Engineered Elias Rankings

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Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2010-11 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics.  Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).  Draft pick compensation may change with the upcoming collective bargaining agreement, though the old rules are expected to stay in place for the upcoming offseason and 2012 draft.

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at his 2010-11 projections, to tide you over until the official ones come out from Elias.  There are a lot of moving parts in reverse-engineering the Elias rankings, so these are subject to change if we find errors.  Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed during the season's final week.

White Sox To Acquire Martinez, Marinez For Guillen

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THURSDAY, 1:15pm: The White Sox announced that they assigned the contract of right-hander Ricardo Andres to the Marlins to complete the deal. Andres appeared in 12 games at Rookie Ball this year in his first professional season. The 20-year-old posted a 6.32 ERA in 15 2/3 innings, striking out 11.

TUESDAY, 1:36pm: The White Sox will also acquire reliever Jhan Marinez, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.  Marinez, 23, posted a 3.57 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 6.5 BB/9, and 1.1 HR/9 in 58 Double-A relief innings this year.  Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked Marinez fourth among Marlins prospects, citing a "combination of great stuff and immaturity."  Marinez has a closer repertoire, wrote BA.

10:21am: The White Sox are expected to acquire infielder Osvaldo Martinez and a minor league pitcher from the Marlins for manager Ozzie Guillen, tweets MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez.  Guillen was released from his contract by the White Sox yesterday, with the Sox retaining compensation rights if he manages another team in 2012.

Martinez, a 23-year-old shortstop, hit .245/.296/.322 in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this year.  Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked him fifth among Marlins prospects, saying he profiles as a "solid No. 2 hitter" with a strong arm, good instincts, and soft hands at shortstop.  At that time, BA saw a future as a versatile but quality utilityman the worst-case scenario for Martinez.

The last player-manager trade in baseball took place nine years ago, when the Devil Rays traded outfielder Randy Winn to the Mariners for Antonio Perez as well as the right to negotiate with manager Lou Piniella.

Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros

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The Astros are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Having traded Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Jeff Keppinger in July, the Astros are left with few arbitration concerns.  Arias has missed the last two seasons due to shoulder issues, and is likely to be cut loose.

Happ will be tendered a contract, and should land around $2.3MM. Quintero has at least been a consistent backup catcher, and it'd cost $1.2MM to retain him.

Add $3.5MM for Happ and Quintero to the team's $47.25MM in 2012 commitments, and the Astros are around $51MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  They entered this season with a $77MM payroll, so there's room to tinker on the free agent market and perhaps add some veteran placeholders.

Red Sox Will Not Acquire Starter

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4:46pm: The Red Sox have given up searching for starting pitching help and they'll rely on one of their own pitchers in the event of a play-in game tomorrow, according to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com (on Twitter).

12:17pm: ESPN's Buster Olney and CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam both find the Red Sox trading for a starter to be unlikely, to varying degrees (Twitter links).  Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star hears that the Royals and Red Sox are discussing Chen, but one official calls a trade a "long shot."

10:18am: Royals lefty Bruce Chen is among Boston's trade targets as they consider acquiring a starter for a potential Thursday play-in game, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Chen is scheduled to start tonight in Minnesota as he seeks to tie his career-high of 13 wins.

Chen projects as a Type B free agent, and an arbitration offer from Kansas City is realistic.  Red Sox GM Theo Epstein would have to surrender something significant to best the value of that potential draft pick, and he'd probably have to complete the trade before even knowing whether he'd need Chen for tomorrow.  At most, the Red Sox would be able to use Chen for that one game, as he would not be eligible for the postseason roster.  As Rosenthal notes, the lefty has already cleared waivers.  The 34-year-old Chen has a 3.98 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 35.5% groundball rate on the season.

In theory, Epstein could also look at fully rested starters such as Chien-Ming Wang, Rodrigo Lopez, and Aaron Harang, though Harang also may be a Type B.  If the Red Sox do not acquire a starter, they might have to use John Lackey or Tim Wakefield on three days rest should a play-in game occur Thursday at Tropicana Field.  Another option might be activating Clay Buchholz, according to WEEI's Rob Bradford.

Rockies Rumors: Street, Ellis, Wright, Cuddyer

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The Rockies conclude their season this afternoon in San Francisco, with Drew Pomeranz opposing Eric Surkamp.  The latest on the team from Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post:

  • Rafael Betancourt would be fine with closing next year for the Rockies, and the team likes what he's done recently in the role.  Renck reiterates that opposing executives expect the Rockies to shop Huston Street this winter.  Street has $8MM left on his contract for next year, assuming his club declines a 2013 option.  The free agent market offers closers such as Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, and Ryan Madson, but those three will require multiyear deals.
  • The Rockies would like to retain second baseman Mark Ellis on a one-year deal in the $3MM range, writes Renck.  However, Omar Infante's new two-year, $8MM contract could decrease Colorado's chances of pulling off such a deal.
  • David Wright will be a Rockies target this winter if the Mets show an inclination to move him.  Wright is owed $15MM in 2012, and can void a '13 club option if dealt.  Wright, 28, has a .253/.344/.426 line heading into today's action.  He missed two months this year due to a back injury.
  • Michael Cuddyer is a potential outfield target for Colorado, writes Renck, and signing him might mean trading Seth Smith.

Ozzie’s Four-Year Deal Worth About $10MM

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New Miami Marlins managed Ozzie Guillen was introduced today, and MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says his four-year contract is worth about $10MM.  His $2.5MM salary represents almost a 40% increase over the $1.8MM he was earning with the White Sox.

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria says he “could not be happier” that Guillen is going to lead the team into its new stadium, according to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post.  And the skipper himself promised an energetic team that will play hard and deliver results. 

"Hopefully I can bring energy flavor, enthusiasm but the most important thing – a winning team,” Guillen said.  "As long as I am here I'm going to promise you, you're going to see a ballclub that will play hard. It's not about Ozzie – it's about Miami Marlins.”

Capozzi notes (Twitter links) that Guillen rejected the Marlins' first contract offer.  Team President David Samson told Guillen that he loves his Twitter activity and noted that it comes with responsibility.

Wakefield Wants To Come Back Next Year

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45-year-old knuckleballer Tim Wakefield wants to pitch an 18th season for the Red Sox next year, he told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Said Wakefield: "I've definitely made up my mind that I definitely want to come back next year.  I have another goal in front of me that I'd like to accomplish, and that’s the all-time record for the Red Sox in wins. I’m only seven away. I think the fans deserve an opportunity to watch me chase that record."

With 192 victories, Roger Clemens and Cy Young share the current franchise record.  Wakefield has 186 for the Sox, and 200 in total.  He has a 5.12 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9, and 38.4% groundball rate in 154 2/3 innings this year, and the righty explained that his job as a a fourth or fifth starter is to give the club innings.

Mets Rumors: Lawsuit, Reyes, Offseason

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The Mets close out their season this afternoon at Citi Field, with Miguel Batista facing the Reds' Edinson Volquez.  The latest on New York's National League club…

  • Manhattan federal judge Jed Rakoff tossed out nine of the 11 counts in Irving Picard's $1 billion complaint against Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz, reports Kaja Whitehouse of the New York Post.  Rakoff set the ceiling at $386MM in an order issued today, according to the Associated Press.
  • Mets manager Terry Collins had this to say to David Lennon of Newsday on impending free agent shortstop Jose Reyes: "I think he'll be back."  Reyes presents a lose-lose scenario for the Mets, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post, because the fan base would be upset if the shortstop leaves but he does not necessarily represent a sound investment.  Sherman is of the opinion that Reyes "will receive nothing less than six years for $114MM in free agency," which equates to $19MM per year.
  • Reyes was pulled after singling in his first at-bat today, to preserve an NL-leading .3370577 batting average.  Strange way to end what could have been Reyes' last game as a Met.  Ryan Braun could top Reyes' mark tonight by going 3-for-3 or 3-for-4.
  • ESPNNewYork's Adam Rubin analyzes the Mets' upcoming offseason.  He believes Mike Pelfrey will return and Angel Pagan will not, and the Mets are also displeased with the recent performance of catcher Ronny Paulino.  For estimated salaries on all five arbitration eligible Mets, click here.
  • Though the Mets would like to re-sign Chris Capuano, Rubin believes the lefty would have to fight for a rotation spot.  I'd be surprised if Capuano is willing to do that.
  • Rubin expects the Mets to go outside the organization for a closer, and sign a second lefty as well.

Arbitration Eligibles: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

While the Pirates have a large quantity of arbitration eligible players (11), no one projects to make even $4MM in 2012.  Pearce, Wood, and Ohlendorf may be on the non-tender bubble.  Pearce and Wood would barely make more than the league minimum, though Ohlendorf would likely stay around $2MM.  Jones remains useful against right-handed pitching and I think that justifies a potential $2.4MM salary.

Relievers Meek, Resop, Veras, Grilli, and Hanrahan figure to be tendered contracts.  Each should fall between $800K and $1.5MM, with the exception of Hanrahan, whose saves should propel him to $3.9MM.  Starters Morton ($2.2MM) and Karstens ($2.8MM) will remain affordable as well.

If Meek, Jones, Morton, Resop, Hanrahan, Karstens, Veras, and Grilli are retained, the total could be around $16MM.  Assuming Ronny Cedeno's option is declined, the Pirates will have around $26MM committed next year before accounting for minimum salary players.  With payroll expected to rise from this year's $42MM Opening Day figure, the Bucs could have a good $20MM in 2012 flexibility.

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