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Huntington Talks Offseason

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With GM Neal Huntington under contract through at least 2014, the Pirates can focus on the upcoming offseason.  Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke to Huntington yesterday; here are a few highlights.

  • On first baseman Derrek Lee, Huntington said, "We'd like to have him return.  It's a two-way street. He's got to walk through some things. Is he going to play next year? Does he want to play in Pittsburgh next year or does he have a better opportunity to do something different?"  Lee, 36, hit .341/.390/.604 in 100 plate appearances for the Pirates since coming over in a July trade with Baltimore.  If Lee confers with his family and decides to play in 2012, he'll likely be looking at a one-year deal below the $7.25MM base salary he earned this year.
  • Huntington said the odds of the Pirates needing only six starters again in 2012 are slim, implying that the team will look to add rotation depth.
  • Trades will be considered; despite their rebuilding process Huntington said the Pirates have prospects about which they're willing to talk. 
  • The Pirates have drawn 4,337 more fans per game compared to last year, an increase of almost 22%.  The increased revenue will lead to a bigger payroll, but much of the increase will go toward arbitration raises.  The Pirates' 11 arbitration eligible players are Evan Meek, Garrett Jones, Charlie Morton, Chris Resop, Steven Pearce, Brandon Wood, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Jose Veras, and Jason Grilli.  We'll have estimated salaries and non-tender predictions for you later this week in our arbitration eligibles series.  The Bucs opened the season with just a $42MM payroll.

Marlins Open To Trading Nolasco?

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Ricky Nolasco appeared to be off-limits as recently as July, but the Marlins may have changed their stance on the righty.  The team will give serious thought to trading Nolasco this offseason, a source who spoke to a front office member told Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

The biggest issue with Nolasco is his performance; he posted a 4.67 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, and 45.1% groundball rate this year in 206 innings.  In the past three seasons, Nolasco has posted SIERAs of 3.23, 3.37, and 3.64.  However, the ERAs haven't matched up: 5.06, 4.51, and 4.67.  The problem is that Nolasco has been so darn hittable, at about ten per nine innings over 2009-11.  Nolasco's batted balls have been resulting in hits about 32% of the time, with line drives a frequent outcome.

Nolasco's velocity took a dip this year, as did his strikeout rate.  But he remained extremely stingy with free passes, and showed signs of being able to prevent longballs too.  There will probably be several sabermetric-inclined teams that consider Nolasco a buy-low candidate, especially if they can put him in front of a stronger defense.

On a personal level, Marlins manager Jack McKeon seemed to question Nolasco's determination, telling Rodriguez, "I can't figure him out.  He's got too good of stuff to be a 10-12 pitcher…He better look in the mirror and see if he can make an adjustment or two. Evidently, the hitters are making adjustments to him."

Nolasco, 28, signed a three-year extension in December last year.  He's owed $20.5MM over the next two seasons.  I think the Marlins will be faced with a Wandy Rodriguez-type situation: there will be teams willing to take on that entire contract, but then the players offered won't be terribly appealing.  We've seen in the past that when the Marlins want to move a player they do it, even if they don't appear to be getting great value for him.  So it wouldn't be surprising to see Nolasco traded in November for a less-than-stellar return, freeing up cash for the Marlins to pursue a replacement.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Josh Willingham

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Left fielder Josh Willingham has established career-highs in home runs and RBIs this year, with 28 and 94 respectively and three games remain on the schedule.  On the other hand, a slipping batting average and walk rate have his OBP at a career-worst .335, and his defense doesn't come highly regarded.

Willingham

Many teams seeking power this offseason will start with home runs, and among free agents only Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and David Ortiz have more than Willingham, with Carlos Pena even at 28.  Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Beltran are at 25 and 22 respectively, and Michael Cuddyer would be at the bottom end of that range had he not missed time due to injuries.  Pujols and Fielder come with price tags only a handful of teams can consider, while Ortiz requires a DH job.

Ramirez, Beltran, Cuddyer, Pena, and Willingham form the next tier of free agent hitters.  The first three are probably looking at three-year deals paying $10MM or more per year.  Pena and Willingham may have to settle for two-year deals.  Willingham, in particular, probably will receive less than $10MM per year.  I'm thinking something in the two-year, $16MM range.

Pena comes with the wrinkle of a perenially ugly batting average.  With Willingham, the warts are his defense, durability, potential Type A status, and this year's OBP drop.  Maybe next year his walk rate comes back up a bit, and you're comfortable penciling him in for 130 games instead of 155.  The Type A issue could go away too if the A's don't offer arbitration.  Or perhaps Willingham will never hit the market, if the team offers and he accepts.  As we learned yesterday from Susan Slusser, the Athletics' spending decisions are on hold until they hear about their stadium situation.  Agent Matt Sosnick said, "Josh and I both made it clear he'd like to stay, but at this point, I'm pretty sure he'll test the free-agent market."    

Losing a draft pick for Willingham would sting, depending on what team signs him.  A team like the Indians, with the first unprotected pick at #16, probably wouldn't want to make the sacrifice.  The Dodgers and Giants also project to pick in the top 20.  Willingham should still have a range of suitors, with the White Sox, Twins, and Reds also among the teams with potential left field openings.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Arbitration Eligibles: New York Mets

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The Mets are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

It appears likely that the Mets will tender Pelfrey a contract, perhaps for the value of providing innings and the possibility that he'll be a little better next year.  We have his salary in the $5.9MM range.  Pagan is another player on the bubble.  He projects for $4.7MM and is an easy choice to tender if the Mets consider his 2011 UZR a fluke.  Buchholz missed most of the season for a shoulder injury and depression; he projects around $1.2MM.

Acosta and Paulino will be affordable, at about $1MM and $1.5MM respectively.  They figure to be tendered contracts.

The Mets have $66.83MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  If everyone but Buchholz remains, that puts them near $80MM plus Tim Byrdak's salary.  Mets GM Sandy Alderson implied earlier this month that the team may cut payroll to the $100-110MM range.  That'd leave enough money for Jose Reyes and a few other pieces, and that's assuming most arbitration eligible players are tendered and no one is traded.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Free $400 Fantasy Football Contest (Sponsored Post)

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Looking to show off your fantasy football genius this week?  Try DraftStreet, where you can put together a new fantasy team each week and compete against other users for real money.

Right now DraftStreet has an NFL freeroll for MLB Trade Rumors readers, meaning you can take a shot at a chunk of the $400 prize pool for free, with no strings attached.  Here's how it works.

The NFL freeroll begins Sunday at 1:00pm eastern time, so you have until then to create your team.  You're given a $100K salary cap, and each player is assigned a price by DraftStreet.  Your roster will cover these positions: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 FLEX, and 1 Defense.  You get points based on how your team performs through Monday night's game.  The teams with the most points get the prize money.  Below is a screenshot of a sample roster: 

Tim's MLBTR Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you're interested, sign up and create a roster prior to Sunday's games (1:00pm eastern time).  It's quick, easy, fun, and the MLBTR league gives you a free chance to win some of the $400 prize pool.  If you enjoy the competition you can try other leagues for free and earn credits, or deposit real money.

Rosenthal On Moneyball

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke to a slew of top executives about Moneyball, with the movie coming out Friday.  Here are a few highlights.

  • Executives Dave Dombrowski (Tigers) and Mark Shapiro (Indians) agree that the stark line drawn by the 2003 book between scouting and statistics is not present today.  I've yet to find a baseball executive who doesn't prefer a blend.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman admits that the Red Sox "were having a great deal of success with players of lesser ability," adding, "I studied what they were doing to some degree, adjusted accordingly, brought the Yankees up to speed, brought us into the 21st century."
  • Shapiro, president of the Indians, expects further dominance of big-market teams in the next five to seven years.  He added, "That doesn’t preclude small-market teams from winning. But they’re going to go in and out, go through cycles of winning, then violently remaking their rosters." 
  • Paul DePodesta told Rosenthal he thinks the explosion of information in baseball would have happened without Moneyball, but Cashman and Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. noted that they were pleased to see Oakland's methods revealed in the book.
  • Braves president John Schuerholz doesn't think so-called Moneyball teams have been successful, saying, "I think everyone looked and I don’t think many considered it a better mousetrap. You look at the won-loss records of the teams that adopted and the teams that didn’t, I don’t think you’ll find much of a difference in the impact."
  • Brewers GM Doug Melvin is losing some faith, based on "some bad experiences with possible deals that I might have made based off numbers."
  • Athletics GM Billy Beane believes injuries represent a current opportunity, if a team can create an advantage in prevention and treatment.  DePodesta noted that inefficiencies arise every five or six years, when a new collective bargaining agreement is reached.

Cubs Rumors: Aramis, Zambrano, Quade, Hughes

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The Cubs project for the seventh overall pick in next year's draft, though it's a tight race.  The latest on the club:

Nationals Scouting C.J. Wilson

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The Nationals will have a scout at C.J. Wilson's start tonight in Oakland, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson.  Ladson takes this as a sign that the Nationals will "more than likely" have interest in signing Wilson as a free agent after the season.

Wilson, 31 in November, is putting the finishing touches on a fantastic regular season.  He has a 2.97 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and 49.5% groundball rate in 215 1/3 innings.  The lefty has been tough to hit as well.

A 2012 rotation led by Wilson, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann could make the Natioanals contenders.  They'll have to ante up, as Wilson has a strong case for a contract bigger than the five-year, $82.5MM deals given to John Lackey and A.J. Burnett.

Jocketty Says Phillips Will Be Back

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Reds GM Walt Jocketty said second baseman Brandon Phillips will be back next year, reports John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  Fay takes that to mean the Reds will pick up Phillips' $12MM option in the least.  The two sides have had preliminary talks on an extension, so it may not come to that.

Phillips is opposed to the idea of the Reds picking up the option.  He told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon earlier this month, "If they just pick my option up and don't extend me, I feel like that's a slap in my face.  If the team wants you, they will make room. They will show you they want you here, period. They did it for some of the other guys.  If they're going to have me for just one year, I feel like they don't see me in the future."

The Reds probably would prefer some kind of backloaded extension, because simply exercising the option would give them limited payroll space for 2012.  Phillips, 30, is hitting .294/.346/.452 with 18 home runs in 648 plate appearances this year with above-average defense at second base.

Arbitration Eligibles: Florida Marlins

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The Marlins are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Volstad is probably interesting enough where the Marlins won't want to cut him loose.  His projected $2.6MM salary shouldn't scare anyone off, but perhaps the Fish will trade him if they don't envision him in next year's rotation.  Even with a $600K projection, I think Murphy will be non-tendered.  Sanches is looking at about $1MM, and there's a chance the team lets him go.  Baker had Tommy John surgery a year ago, and the Marlins must decide whether he can catch next year and is worth $800K.  The Hensley starting experiment failed, but at $1.8MM I think he still has value as a reliever.

Everyone else seems on firmer ground to be tendered contracts: Bonifacio ($1.9MM), Mujica ($1.6MM), Badenhop ($1.1MM), Sanchez ($5.9MM), and Nunez ($5.8MM).  Sanchez could be an extension candidate.  We heard in July that Nunez would be retained for 2012; I don't know if his shaky August changed that.  He has performance bonuses for games finished, which could push next year's salary past $6MM.

We've heard quite a bit about the Marlins' willingness to spend money this offseason, but these arbitration decisions are not as much about whether the team can afford the players but rather whether the players are worth their projected salaries.  I think we're looking at $12.3MM if only Bonifacio, Hensley, Mujica, Badenhop, and Sanchez stay and the others are traded or non-tendered.  That'd push the team's commitments to about $58MM before accounting for arbitration eligible players, but you can add as much as $9MM more if you see Nunez and Volstad on next year's team.  

MLB.com's Joe Frisaro has estimated a significant bump to an $80MM payroll, which in my estimation means anywhere from $13-22MM to spend depending on Nunez and Volstad.  Say it's $22MM.  The team has potential needs at center field, third base, second base, the bullpen, and especially the rotation, so if the Marlins sign just one player with an eight-figure salary they'd have to skimp on other needs.  Someone like C.J. Wilson makes more sense to me if the team is willing to jump to a $90MM payroll as they head into their new stadium.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

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