10 Best Minor League Deals Of The Year
Minor league deals are low-risk propositions for teams; the player must earn every inning or plate appearance. Here are MLBTR's ten best minor league deals of 2011.
- Bartolo Colon, Yankees. He didn't pitch at all in the Majors in 2010, but this year Colon has a 3.33 SIERA in 152 innings. He's been a major cog in the Yankees' rotation. Some of his success may be owed to offseason stem cell treatments, which Yankees GM Brian Cashman was not aware of at the time of the signing.
- Casey Kotchman, Rays. Kotchman has positioned himself nicely for a Major League deal by hitting .313/.381/.432 in 506 plate appearances and assuming the Rays' regular first base job. His OBP ranks eighth in the American League.
- Ryan Vogelsong, Giants. The least likely All-Star of 2011, Vogelsong ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.66 ERA in 162 1/3 innings.
- Freddy Garcia, Yankees. Colon and Garcia have provided the Yankees 280 innings of 3.63 ball. Baseball's biggest spenders got a ton of bang for their buck on minor league deals this year.
- Jesus Guzman, Padres. Playing mostly first base for San Diego, Guzman has mashed to a .320/.377/.493 line, knocking in 42 runs in 247 plate appearances.
- Endy Chavez, Rangers. Chavez hadn't appeared in the Majors since tearing his ACL in June of '09, but he's given the Rangers almost 500 innings in center field and a .291/.317/.430 line.
- Guillermo Mota, Giants. Mota has provided the Giants 73 1/3 innings with a 3.12 SIERA. He ranks seventh in baseball in relief innings.
- Jose Veras, Pirates. With 67 2/3 innings and a 3.10 SIERA, Veras has been a great find for the Pirates' bullpen. Plus, he's arbitration eligible.
- Reed Johnson, Cubs. Johnson has played all three outfield positions for the Cubs and hasn't shown much of a platoon split in crafting a .325/.361/.496 line in 246 plate appearances.
- Jack Hannahan, Indians. Hannahan's ability to play a capable third base and post a .330 OBP for the Tribe created a lot of value.
Honorable mentions: Dontrelle Willis (extra credit for offense), Jason Giambi, Laynce Nix, Greg Dobbs, Jose Constanza, Shelley Duncan, Aaron Miles, Eric Chavez, Kevin Millwood, Jerome Williams, Cory Wade, Tim Byrdak, Luis Ayala, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, Jason Isringhausen.
Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Jerome Williams
- Second time: Kendrys Morales, Alberto Callaspo, Jeff Mathis
- Third time: Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar
Mathis is a non-tender candidate, though the Angels retained him last year and his performance hasn't changed much. His salary would be virtually the same, around $1.8MM. Though it's only been 30 innings, Williams has done a nice job and would cost only $700K or so to retain.
The Angels' entire projected infield (aside from Mark Trumbo) is arbitration eligible. Having missed all of 2011, Morales projects to stay at the same salary, $2.975MM. We've got Kendrick for $5.1MM, Aybar for $4.5MM, and Callaspo for $3MM. The middle infield tandem of Kendrick and Aybar will be entering their walk years.
If Mathis is cut loose, the Angels' five arbitration eligible players could cost $16.275MM. Adding in players under contract for 2012, the team's commitments could total about $118MM not including minimum salary players. The Angels' Opening Day payroll in 2011 was about $23MM above that point, so GM Tony Reagins should have flexibility this winter.
Possible Type A Free Agents
Our latest Elias Rankings projections are up, and 26 free agents are in line for Type A status:
Heath Bell
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Matt Capps
Francisco Cordero
Michael Cuddyer
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Prince Fielder
Ramon Hernandez
Ryan Madson
Yadier Molina
Darren Oliver
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Jonathan Papelbon
Brandon Phillips
Albert Pujols
Jose Reyes
Francisco Rodriguez
C.C. Sabathia
Rafael Soriano
Nick Swisher
Jose Valverde
Josh Willingham
In addition, Vladimir Guerrero, Kelly Johnson, Jimmy Rollins, Omar Infante, Adam Wainwright, Takashi Saito, and Octavio Dotel are near the Type A/B borderline.
The current list of 26 should shrink quite a bit. Options for Cano, Dempster, Farnsworth, Molina, Phillips, Soriano, Swisher, and Valverde are likely to take them off the free agent market.
Of the 18 remaining, not everyone will get an arbitration offer. Beltran contractually can't be offered, and there's a chance players such as Bell and Hernandez won't receive offers. It's likely that Capps, Cordero, Oswalt, and Rodriguez will not receive offers either. That drops the pool to about 11 free agents who would carry the cost of a draft pick. To sign a star like Fielder, Pujols, Reyes, or Sabathia, that's typically a minor factor. For the others, it reduces their bargaining power a bit.
Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2010-11 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Nearly all of the data is in; here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2010 season running through September 11th, 2011. Click here to view the rankings directly if you can't see them below.
Cubs Rumors: Aramis, Jocketty, LaHair
The Cubs currently project for the seventh overall pick in next year's draft. Once that is determined, things should get interesting on the North Side. The latest:
- The Reds will discuss the idea of signing third baseman Aramis Ramirez if he reaches free agency, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. I think signing Ramirez would really push the Reds' payroll to the limit, assuming they also pick up Brandon Phillips' club option. The Cubs must decide between Ramirez's $16MM club option and a $2MM buyout within five days of the end of the World Series, so the team's new GM may not yet be in place. After the Cubs decide, Ramirez has five days to make his choice on the option (declining would mean forfeiting the buyout). Ramirez wants to stay, but he recently told ESPNChicago.com's Bruce Levine he desires a two or three-year deal.
- One scenario raised during informal discussions (presumably ones including owner Tom Ricketts) has the Cubs hiring current Reds GM Walt Jocketty, which could then lead to the team snaring Tony La Russa to manage and Albert Pujols to play first base, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Jocketty declined to comment, saying that he's happy in Cincinnati, but also lavished praise on the Cubs job and noted that the team extending farm director Oneri Fleita "shouldn't be" a hindrance. Wittenmyer says the Cubs are gathering information on Andrew Friedman, Billy Beane, Dan Evans, and Ned Colletti so far. Ricketts has yet to ask permission to speak to any GM under contract, writes Levine. In a chat conducted yesterday, Levine guessed Rick Hahn would be the next Cubs' GM.
- Also in that chat, Levine wrote that Ricketts has identified the Cubs' primary need to be two or three starting pitchers. The beat writer does not think the team will spend their money this offseason on position players. He predicts a payroll in the $120-130MM range.
- Numerous Japanese teams have been scouting and are prepared to make offers to Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair, reports Levine. LaHair is intrigued but hopes to remain in the Majors. The 28-year-old snagged Pacific Coast League MVP honors by hitting .331/.405/.664 with 38 home runs in 523 plate appearances, and he's carried that success to the bigs in an eight-game stint. Former Cubs first baseman Micah Hoffpauir went the Japan route a year ago, but is hitting .245/.325/.429 for the Nippon Ham Fighters this year.
Indians Designate Jason Rice For Assignment
The Indians announced today on Twitter that they've designated minor league reliever Jason Rice for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for reliever Zach Putnam.
Rice began the year in Boston's system and was traded to the Athletics for Conor Jackson on August 31st. Then one week ago the Indians claimed him off waivers from the A's, and now he's been bumped off the Tribe's 40-man roster.
Rice, 25, posted a 3.69 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 85 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. He sits in the mid-90s with a hammer curveball, according to Red Sox vice president of player development and amateur scouting Mike Hazen.
Quick Hits: McCutchen, Upton, Cameron
15 years ago today, the Mariners' acquisition of third baseman Dave Hollins was completed when they sent a 20-year-old first baseman named David Ortiz Arias to the Twins. Arias had just hit .322/.390/.511 for the Low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. By the following year Ortiz had dropped the Arias in his name and earned a September call-up. Ortiz posted a .266/.348/.461 line in 455 games spanning 1997-2002 with Minnesota, battling wrist and knee injuries. After the '02 season the Blue Jays reportedly expressed interest in Ortiz, but ultimately the Twins non-tendered him in lieu of a raise from his $950K salary. New Red Sox GM Theo Epstein signed Big Papi for $1.25MM, and the rest is history. Today's links…
- The Pirates are far apart in contract talks with Andrew McCutchen, reports ESPN's Jim Bowden. Bowden feels that a six-year deal in the $47-49MM range, plus a club option, would be a fair compromise. In my opinion, there's a good case to be made for a McCutchen contract to exceed the $51.25MM Justin Upton received over six years in March of 2010. McCutchen has played in over 100 more games than Upton had at that point, their offensive lines are very similar, and McCutchen plays center field.
- ESPN's Keith Law discusses MLB's European presence and what must be done for further growth.
- Answering a question from Craig Heist of WTOP about playing in Washington, Rays center fielder B.J. Upton said he'd love to remain in Tampa Bay but otherwise would like to play for the Nationals with old friend Ryan Zimmerman. You can follow Craig on Twitter here; MLB.com's Bill Ladson transcribed the discussion. Upton is heading into his last arbitration year and projects for a $7MM salary.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo names 20 young, next generation GM candidates. To check out MLBTR's top 20 plus honorable mentions, click here.
- Mike Cameron was consistently one of the best players in baseball when he was on the field, writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.
- The Orioles will try Chris Davis at third base for the rest of the season, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The 25-year-old was a key piece of the July 30th Koji Uehara trade with Texas. With Mark Reynolds getting comfortable at first base, it's conceivable that the Orioles will sit out the corner infielder bidding this winter.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports chronicles how Joey Gathright went from being managed by Jose Canseco as a member of the independent league Yuma Scorpions to a minor league deal with the Red Sox.
What Lies Ahead For ACES
Last month, we took a look at the upcoming offseason for the Boras Corporation. Today I'll take a look at ACES, an agency that ranked eighth overall last offseason but always has a strong record getting multiyear deals and success with veteran free agents who aren't quite star-caliber.
Our agency database shows ACES has around a dozen notable clients eligible for free agency and likely to land big league deals. They represent a pair of prominent closers in Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell, so it'll be interesting to see how they juggle clients who may share suitors. However, both closers could re-sign with their current clubs. Also on the relief front, ACES represents Fernando Rodney, who figures to sign a cheap one-year deal.
The agency has three starters up for free agency, and they're all innings types: Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez, and Jason Marquis. As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted yesterday, Vazquez has come on strong with a 2.21 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 0.80 HR/9 in his last 16 starts.
Many of ACES' position player clients have seen better days: David DeJesus, Jonny Gomes, Raul Ibanez, and Jorge Posada. But given his cache, Posada's venture into free agency should be an interesting one. The agency represents a couple of backups having solid years in Jose Molina and Ramon Santiago; I wouldn't be surprised if they found multiple years for Molina. The potential big name is Brandon Phillips, who's said it'd be a slap in the face for the Reds to just exercise his $12MM option.
Overall ACES' free agent class isn't as deep as in years past – there is no Joaquin Benoit, John Buck, Marlon Byrd, Chone Figgins, or Placido Polanco on which they can work their magic. They are pretty well-positioned for future free agents, with Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Morse, Melky Cabrera, Brandon League, Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla, and Jason Motte heading up their arbitration class. ACES client Dustin Pedroia is nowhere near his next big contract, but Shane Victorino is signed through 2012 and David Wright potentially through '13.
Option Predictions: Relievers
Last week I predicted upcoming option decisions for all potential free agent position players and starting pitchers. It's time to finish off the series with a look at 15 relievers.
- Francisco Cordero, Reds: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout. The Reds may work out a new contract prior to the option decision coming up in November, but if it gets to that point this will clearly be declined.
- Brad Lidge, Phillies: $12.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout. Lidge has returned from a rotator cuff strain to post high strikeout and walk rates with an 89 mile per hour fastball. He'll be an interesting free agent after the option is declined.
- Joe Nathan, Twins: $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout. Nathan is another closer with a big-money option that will be declined, but rumor has it the Twins would like to bring him back. The 36-year-old had Tommy John surgery in March of 2010.
- Jon Rauch, Blue Jays: $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout. Between an appendectomy and a knee injury, Rauch's season did not end well. As a likely Type B free agent an arbitration offer is possible, but I think the option will be declined.
- Rafael Soriano, Yankees: $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout. Soriano is not expected to opt out of his contract, as he'd be leaving huge money on the table. I suppose there is a tiny chance he'd just want a fresh start and a chance to close somewhere, but it's highly unlikely.
- Jose Valverde, Tigers: $9MM club option, no buyout. Valverde's 43-for-43 performance in save opportunities has led to a new franchise record, and it seems very likely the option is exercised.
- Octavio Dotel, Cardinals: $3.75MM club option with a $750K buyout. There is uncertainty in the Cardinals' bullpen, and Dotel has been excellent in an 18 1/3 inning sample. I think the Cardinals will exercise the option, but if not they could get a draft pick given Dotel's likely Type B status.
- Kyle Farnsworth, Rays: $3.3MM club option with a $650K buyout. He's had a strong year as the Rays closer, though his elbow has been barking lately. Though a draft pick could be had, I see the Rays exercising this option.
- Jason Frasor, White Sox: $3.75MM club option. Frasor is not necessarily needed in the White Sox bullpen. But I think someone will value him at this price and the Sox will exercise.
- Chad Qualls, Padres: $6MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout. Qualls has been useful, but this will be declined.
- Yoshinori Tateyama, Rangers: $1MM club option. At this price it's an easy decision to exercise.
- Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: $3MM club option with no buyout. I think getting Wheeler back at the same salary is fair, and the Red Sox will exercise.
- Michael Wuertz, Athletics: $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout. Walks have been up in another season marred by injuries. This could go either way but I think the A's will decline.
- Jeremy Affeldt, Giants: $5MM club option with a $500K buyout. It sounds like the Giants will decline the option if it gets to that point, but they'd like to re-sign him.
- Damaso Marte, Yankees: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout. Marte ended up earning about $387K per inning on this contract. The option will be declined.
Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Andrew Bailey, Daric Barton, Adam Rosales, Gio Gonzalez, Landon Powell
- Second time: Dallas Braden, Ryan Sweeney, Craig Breslow
- Third time: Joey Devine
- Fourth time: Brandon McCarthy
This entire group could reasonably be tendered contracts. It's possible someone like Rosales, a potential Super Two, would be cut loose even though his projected salary is only $600K. Powell, another likely Super Two, also failed to produce in the bigs but could be retained affordably.
Gonzalez should land the biggest salary at an estimated $3.6MM, as he'll be arbitration eligible as a Super Two. Braden should stay around $3.3MM after missing most of the season. Bailey could get $3.4MM for his first time through, while the A's can enjoy McCarthy cheaply for one more season at around $2.6MM.
Barton, Sweeney, and Breslow should fall in the $1.6-1.8MM range. It was a lost season for Barton culminating in shoulder surgery, but it's still a reasonable price to retain him. The A's also have Devine checking in around $900K.
In total we estimate $19.5MM for the Athletics' nine arbitration eligibles. Assuming Michael Wuertz's option is exercised, the A's are looking at a commitment of maybe $44MM plus minimum salary players. That'd put them $23MM short of this year's Opening Day payroll.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.