Tim Dierkes | MLB Trade Rumors

New York Notes: Cano, Johan, Reyes

By Tim Dierkes | September 7, 2011 at 1:26pm CDT

The Yankees are waiting for the playoffs, while the Mets are jockeying for .500. The latest on New York's teams…

Scott Boras client Robinson Cano told Ken Davidoff of Newsday, "I will make my own decision. I'm a grown man, and I can decide where I want to be, what I want to do." Cano has club options for 2012 and '13 that are likely to be exercised, so it's not quite time to worry about his next contract with the Yankees.
Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues has reservations about the Yankees spending big bucks on Yu Darvish if he's posted, but is intrigued by the righty.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman explained to John Harper of the New York Daily News why he was "very comfortable saying no" to the Mariners' request to include Ivan Nova or Eduardo Nunez along with Jesus Montero in his offer for Cliff Lee last summer. Montero's stock is higher right now, but the debate remains open as to whether the Mariners should have chosen him over Justin Smoak.
Johan Santana is currently showing better stuff than he did last year, Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Santana, who had shoulder surgery a year ago, is the key to the Mets' 2012 rotation.
The Mets shouldn't sleep on the Nationals as a potential NL East contender in the near future, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman adds that the Nationals are "routinely in the discussion" when he asks baseball executives to speculate on where Jose Reyes could sign this winter.

Heyman On Pujols, Huntington, C.J. Wilson

By Tim Dierkes | September 7, 2011 at 12:39pm CDT

SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with a discussion of the Albert Pujols situation, which is due to flare up once the season ends. Heyman's sources say the Cardinals are "not overly confident" about retaining Pujols. Heyman hears the Cardinals are not inclined to increase their offer much from nine years and around $210MM, although the SI writer thinks the team could reduce the number of years to boost the average annual value past the $23MM range. Heyman hears Pujols is "not overly thrilled" that the Cardinals' offer last winter wouldn't place him in the top ten among MLB player salaries, though by my count there are only five players currently averaging $23MM or more as their AAV.

Heyman has plenty more musings on the Pujols topic in the column; here are a few other highlights…

The Pirates intend to extend the contract of GM Neal Huntington. He says the Bucs have waited for the draft and trade deadlines to pass. Huntington was hired four years ago.
"There are some who could see" Rangers ace C.J. Wilson "wanting to go to his native Southern California." Heyman views the Angels as a threat for Wilson.
Heyman says Angels people suggest they would have been willing to resume extension talks with Jered Weaver next year if they hadn't reached a deal by the team's deadline this year.
The Twins are interested in re-signing reliever Joe Nathan, though they won't be picking up his $12MM option.

Arbitration Eligible Players With Club Options

By Tim Dierkes | September 7, 2011 at 11:52am CDT

Three pitchers have club options for 2012 yet are not named on our free agent list. The reason? They'd still be arbitration eligible if the options are declined. Let's take a look.

James Shields, Rays: $7MM club option with a $2MM buyout. This is a slam dunk, as Shields' arbitration salary would certainly beat the $5MM net price of the option. Plus, exercising for 2012 allows the Rays to enjoy options for '13 ($7.5MM net) and '14 ($11MM net). It should be noted that Shields' contract, signed prior to the '08 season, includes $6MM in performance bonuses.
Fausto Carmona, Indians: $7MM club option. Carmona signed three months after Shields, and his contract also provides the ultimate in team flexibility with three club options. Carmona's 2012 option does require pause, but it's worth exercising as well.
Colby Lewis, Rangers: $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout. Coming from a $3MM salary, Lewis would obviously beat the $3MM net price of the option. So this one will be picked up as well.

Option Predictions: Starting Pitchers

By Tim Dierkes | September 7, 2011 at 10:15am CDT

Yesterday I made predictions for the 20 position players with contractual options on the horizon. Today, it's time to tackle the 10 potential free agent starting pitchers with options this offseason.

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout. There's a good case to be made that Carpenter is worth the $14MM net price of this option on a one-year deal. He might have value to other teams at that price, but given his 10-and-5 rights I can't see the Cardinals exercising the option and then trading Carpenter. The righty turns 37 in April, but I think the Cards could hammer out a two-year deal at a lower salary. If they can't pull that off by early November or don't want to commit due to uncertainty around Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman, then I think the option will be declined.
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: $10MM club option for '12, $12MM for '13. These options must be decided at the same time, and no one expects Wainwright's February Tommy John surgery to prevent the Cardinals from exercising.
Aaron Cook, Rockies: $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. The Rockies will certainly decline their side.
Ryan Dempster, Cubs: $14MM player option, no buyout. The ball is in Dempster's court, and I think he'll exercise assuming a lower salary multiyear deal isn't agreed to first.
Zach Duke, Diamondbacks: $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout. With Duke moved to the bullpen in July, this will be declined.
Jon Garland, Dodgers: $8MM club option with a $500K buyout. Shoulder surgery officially ended Garland's season in July, and this will be declined.
Aaron Harang, Padres: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. Harang certainly wants to stay in San Diego, and I'm leaning toward this being one of the rare mutual options that is exercised by both sides.
Paul Maholm, Pirates: $9.75MM club option with a $750K buyout. Maholm's season ended in August with a shoulder strain. The lefty posted a 3.66 ERA and 4.07 SIERA. Interest appears mutual in an extension, but even if the shoulder issue is minor I see the Pirates declining this option.
Roy Oswalt, Phillies: $16MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout. A condition of Oswalt's July 2010 trade to the Phillies was that his buyout would not be reduced whether it was the pitcher or the team declining. Oswalt missed over a month with a back injury this year, and his numbers have been down. Only Oswalt knows whether and where he'd prefer to pitch next year, but in November I think the Phillies will decline the option.
C.C. Sabathia, Yankees: may opt out of remaining four years, $92MM. There appears to be little doubt Sabathia will opt out. The Yankees are still viewed as the favorite to sign him, but we don't know how much work needs to be done to find common ground.

Indians Designate Jerad Head For Assignment

By Tim Dierkes | September 7, 2011 at 8:19am CDT

The Indians announced today that they've designated outfielder Jerad Head for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Trevor Crowe, who was activated from the 60-day DL.

Head, 28, made his Major League debut for the Indians on August 28th, playing left field and getting an infield single against Bruce Chen. Head hit .284/.338/.526 with 24 home runs in 463 Triple-A plate appearances this year, appearing mostly at the outfield corners. The Indians signed Head six years ago as an undrafted free agent.

Arbitration Eligibles: Minnesota Twins

By Tim Dierkes | September 7, 2011 at 8:11am CDT

The Twins are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

First time: Jose Mijares, Matt Tolbert, Phil Dumatrait
Second time: Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla, Glen Perkins
Third time: Francisco Liriano, Jason Repko

The Twins have a lot of non-tender candidates in this bunch: Mijares, Tolbert, Dumatrait, Slowey, and Repko. MLBTR's Steve Adams points out that the success of Perkins and the likelihood of moving Brian Duensing to the bullpen could make lefties Mijares and Dumatrait expendable. Tolbert and Repko are bench players who would cost under $1MM each, but neither has provided any offense.

Momentum for a Slowey trade has been building since at least Spring Training, though his limited 2011 contribution would probably keep his salary at $2.7MM. With Kyle Gibson going down for Tommy John surgery the Twins might prefer the depth Slowey provides. So while a non-tender is possible, it's more likely that the Twins trade or keep Slowey.

Perkins and Casilla will be retained, each projected in the $1.5MM range. Liriano had an off year, plagued with shoulder issues. He projects for a $5.7MM salary in 2012, and he's too tantalizing a talent to cut loose unless major surgery becomes necessary.

The Twins could end up with Perkins, Casilla, and Liriano on next year's roster for a total of around $8.6MM. That'd put their total around $74.35MM before accounting for minimum salary players, so if the 2011 Opening Day payroll level is maintained the Twins could have over $30MM to spend in 2012 salaries.

Steve Adams and Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Quick Hits: Strasburg, Pujols, Wilken

By Tim Dierkes | September 6, 2011 at 2:51pm CDT

Weather permitting, Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg will make his 2011 MLB debut tonight, almost one year from the day of having Tommy John surgery performed on his elbow. Whether or not Strasmas is cancelled, here are today's links…

Strasburg still needs to knock a little rust off his command, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told ESPN's Jayson Stark. Stark takes the stance that the Nationals are not rushing Strasburg back. Stark's colleague Keith Law has a fantastic article discussing the Tommy John procedure and recovery, with help from pitchers Jarrod Parker and Chad Durbin. For a look at what Strasburg did during his down time and how he's changed in the last year, check out Dave Sheinin's article from the Washington Post.
SI's Jon Heyman hears that the Cardinals are "not completely confident" Albert Pujols will remain in St. Louis, which is one reason they didn't trade Lance Berkman (Twitter link).
The Chicago Sun-Times talked to Tim Wilken, the Cubs' director of amateur and professional scouting, about the possibility of an extension in the wake of Oneri Fleita's four-year deal. Such a move would quickly sour many Cubs GM candidates, hears Yahoo's Jeff Passan (Twitter link). Wilken recently told Baseball America's Phil Rogers that it's been 20 years since he's had the kind of ownership commitment toward draft and international free agent spending that he had in 2011.
NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman explains why he's predicted against Yu Darvish being posted in past years, but also outlines why he can see the righty being posted this winter.
Tigers righty Doug Fister has "basically turned himself into the modern version of Brad Radke," writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. Does he represent the best acquisition by a contender this summer? Hunter Pence belongs in that discussion as well.

Indians Claim Jason Rice

By Tim Dierkes | September 6, 2011 at 1:49pm CDT

The Indians claimed minor league reliever Jason Rice off waivers from the Athletics, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The A's had acquired Rice from the Red Sox in the Conor Jackson deal last Wednesday. The Tribe made room on the 40-man roster for Rice by moving Carlos Carrasco to the 60-day DL.

Rice, 25, posted a 3.69 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 85 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. The Red Sox had obtained Rice from the White Sox in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, prior to the '09 season. Red Sox vice president of player development and amateur scouting Mike Hazen talked to Pawtucket announcer Dan Hoard about Rice's arsenal in this post from February.

Non-Tender Candidate: Luke Scott

By Tim Dierkes | September 6, 2011 at 12:44pm CDT

Luke Scott had the best full season of his career in 2010, ranking sixth in the American League with a .535 slugging percentage. As a late bloomer with lightly-regarded defense, Scott has been going year to year through arbitration and is an oft-cited comparable due to the healthy raises he's received. In his last time through, he beat the midpoint of his and the Orioles' submissions and received a $2.35MM increase, bringing his 2011 salary to $6.4MM. Scott's offseason, of course, was better known for a Winter Meetings interview with Yahoo's David Brown than his arbitration raise.

Scott, 33, had his projected position changed twice during the offseason. When Derrek Lee was signed to play first base Scott became the designated hitter, and then he became the left fielder upon the Vladimir Guerrero signing.

Scott's season started out with a whimper as he battled a groin strain in April, and then a shoulder issue became public in May. He decided to play through a torn labrum in his shoulder, using a combination of rehab and a June cortisone injection. But then Scott bruised his knee in late June, and he landed on the disabled list a week later. During that DL stint the pain in his shoulder worsened, and after another cortisone shot and a rehab assignment he was activated in late July. It only took one game for Scott to realize he had to have surgery on his shoulder. From what I've heard, Scott is a disciplined and devoted offseason worker, and is expected to be ready for Spring Training next year.

Scott didn't add much in the way of counting stats in 2011 – nine home runs, 22 RBI, and 24 runs. So, we project his salary to be in the $6.4MM range again. Is that a worthwhile gamble for the Orioles, who have gotten power production this year from J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters? Scott's recovery progress leading up to the December non-tender deadline will be a big factor, but I'm leaning toward the Orioles tendering him a contract. The O's will have a lot of payroll space, and the free agent market doesn't offer much in the way of alternatives who have Scott's power potential and will sign a one-year deal under $7MM. The x factor will be a potential new GM in Baltimore, who could certainly find reasons to cut Scott as part of a mini-shakeup.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Twins Designate Chuck James For Assignment

By Tim Dierkes | September 6, 2011 at 11:57am CDT

The Twins announced today on Twitter that they've designated lefty reliever Chuck James for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot for Australia native Liam Hendriks.

James, 29, posted a 2.30 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 62 2/3 minor league innings, but was ineffective in 10 1/3 big league frames. James won 11 games in 119 innings for the '06 Braves, but he had rotator cuff surgery in September of '08 and was subsequently cut loose.

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