Talks Slow Between Berkman, Cardinals

Contract talks between right fielder Lance Berkman and the Cardinals have slowed due to a difference of opinion over the player's worth, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Ideally the Cardinals would wrap up new contracts with Berkman and Rafael Furcal before month's end, leaving fewer question marks heading into the Albert Pujols negotiations.  They extended Chris Carpenter earlier this month.

Berkman had plenty to say to Strauss on the topic of his next contract.  He told Strauss "this is not an adversarial situation," but explained, "It's always about money.  No matter what people say, it's always about the money."

Berkman made additional comments that imply the Cardinals are trying to attach an option year or incentives to a potential one-year deal, whereas he wants one year with no strings attached.  Berkman appears to believe that he'll be taking a discount to re-sign with St. Louis, as in his opinion his production isn't that far off from Pujols and Prince Fielder.

The big difference is that Berkman will turn 36 in February, and the over/under on his games played for 2012 should be set around 135.  His production with the Cardinals has returned to his '08 level, as Berkman is hitting .299/.412/.558 with 31 home runs in 549 plate appearances.  I think a salary around $12MM would be a fair compromise.

Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves

The Braves are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Moylan had back surgery in May and returned in September, he'll have a low innings total for 2011.  That should hold his salary at $2MM, and I think the Braves will retain him assuming they consider him healthy.

We've got Bourn down for a raise of nearly $3MM, up to $7.2MM.  Jurrjens projects for a fairly modest raise to $5.1MM.  He's tallied fewer than 300 innings over the last two seasons, and that hurts his arbitration earnings.  Prado is looking at about $4.4MM and O'Flaherty could get $2.4MM.

Our total for the Braves' five arbitration eligible players is $21.1MM.  Assuming Eric Hinske's option is picked up, the Braves would have about $88MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  That's only about $3MM below this year's Opening Day payroll of $91MM, though they have exceeded $100MM twice in the last decade. 

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Heyman On Fielder, Rollins, Madson

SI's Jon Heyman leads his column by ranking the favorites for Prince Fielder, putting the Brewers sixth while noting that owner Mark Attanasio "should never be counted out and is expected to make one final run" to retain his slugger.  Heyman's other notes:

  • The Phillies "very much" want to re-sign shortstop Jimmy Rollins.  Heyman thinks the Phillies are willing to do a three-year contract while Rollins is expected to seek four or five.  Rollins, 33 in November, is hitting .268/.338/.395 in 582 plate appearances this year.  UZR continues to rate his defense as above average, and it seems likely Rollins will score an eight-figure salary for the first time in his career.
  • The Red Sox "are thought to have interest" in Phillies closer Ryan Madson.  Madson, a 31-year-old Scott Boras client, has a 2.54 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9, and 50% groundball rate in 56 2/3 innings this year.  Last week MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith explained that Madson will probably cost another team a draft pick, but a three-year deal appears likely.  In March, Madson said he wanted to finish his career with the Phillies.

 

Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers

The Rangers are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

The Rangers face one of the more sizeable arbitration classes we've encountered so far in the American League.  Blanco could be cut if the Rangers don't want to guarantee him a roster spot, though we're estimating only about $500K for his salary.  Lewis' $3.25MM club option is a slam dunk, as we're estimating a $6MM salary if he goes to arbitration.

Napoli's fantastic offensive year should push his salary to the $8.5MM range.  Cruz has again battled injuries, but he's in line for a healthy $6MM salary.  Deadline acquisition Mike Adams is looking at about $4.3MM in his last year before free agency.  Andrus, Harrison, and Murphy fall within the $2.6-3.2MM range, while relievers Lowe and O'Day project for $1.3-1.4MM.

All told the Rangers have a pretty expensive group, at an estimated $30MM not including Lewis and Blanco.  They have about $101MM in commitments for next year once you add Lewis and Yoshinori Tateyama but before minimum salary players are included.  That'd mark the Rangers' first foray past the $100MM mark since the Alex Rodriguez days, so you can see that simply squeezing in C.J. Wilson might require GM Jon Daniels to move some pieces around.  On the other hand, attendance is up over 5,000 tickets per game this year and payroll figures to be on the rise.

Tsuyoshi Wada Eyeing MLB

Southbank southpaw Tsuyoshi Wada owns a 1.80 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2/0 BB/9, and 0.41 HR/9 on the season.  According to NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman, Wada recently reached the service time requirement for free agent eligibility and "is widely expected to make a run at an MLB contract this offseason."

Wada, 31 in February, is a Dallas Braden type with "a 86-87 mph fastball, a good circle change, and a solid slider," in the opinion of Newman.  Newman's biggest concern is whether Wada could handle the innings required of an MLB starting pitcher.

In an email exchange, Newman guessed that teams might view a two-year deal in the $8MM range as a reasonable risk for Wada this offseason.  Wada may be viewed by some as a reliever, though the pitcher's view on his role is not known.  Wada ought to generate decent interest this offseason, though the bigger name pitchers coming out of Japan will be Hisashi Iwakuma and perhaps Yu Darvish.

Your Poll Performance

It's always interesting to see what MLBTR readers think in our polls, especially with thousands of votes coming in.  Looking through four February 2011 polls, how have you done?

How Many $100 Million Contracts?

By my count, seventeen $100MM+ contracts have been signed in free agency, making an exception to include the $103MM commitment required by the Red Sox for Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Here's the breakdown for recent offseasons:

For the 2011-12 offseason, will we see a return to the crazy money of 2006-07?  We've got a trio of $100MM locks with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Sabathia.  As with the better $100MM contracts in baseball history, these three are current superstars.  However, three additional players could tip the scales and give us as many as six $100MM deals this winter: Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Yu Darvish.

Reyes and Wilson may fall short – I could certainly see them in the $90MM range.  With Darvish it's more a question of whether he's posted, because five years later I do think he'd match or exceed the Dice-K expenditure. 

It's your turn: out of Pujols, Fielder, Sabathia, Reyes, Wilson, and Darvish, how many $100MM+ expenditures do you expect for the 2011-12 offseason?

How many $100MM free agent contracts in the 2011-12 offseason?

  • 3 44% (2,719)
  • 4 37% (2,303)
  • 5 15% (911)
  • 6 5% (294)

Total votes: 6,227

Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Aardsma and Rodriguez are the primary non-tender candidates.  Aardsma's salary in arbitration would remain close to $4.5MM and can't go below $3.6MM.  Since he had Tommy John surgery in July, that wouldn't be good value.  Rodriguez is a $700K type player, but he hasn't done anything noteworthy this year.  Kelley also projects for $700K.  Fully recovered from Tommy John, I think the Mariners will keep him around for 2012.

Vargas and League should each land in the $4.2-4.5MM range for 2012.  They're both trade candidates, especially League having saved 34 games and counting.

If Kelley, Vargas, and League are retained, that should add around $9.4MM to the team's commitments, bringing the total to about $69MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  That'd be about $26MM short of the 2011 payroll, so the team has flexibility.

GM Candidate: John Coppolella

MLBTR’s list of general manager candidates introduced the MLB executives who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re now going to bring you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces.

It's time to get acquainted with Braves director of professional scouting John Coppolella.  John worked his way from the ground up in baseball, landing an unpaid internship with the Lake Elsinore Storm back in 1997.  By the time John graduated from Notre Dame he had an Angels internship in his pocket as well, and that led to a couple of positions with the Yankees.  John joined the Braves' front office five years ago and currently has a hand in player evaluations, acquisitions, and contracts.  

I recently exchanged emails with John covering a wide range of topics, many of which follow up on comments he made in a Baseball Prospectus chat last month.

Which people have served as mentors for you in baseball?

At the Yankees it was Brian Cashman, Mark Newman, Kim Ng, Damon Oppenheimer, Gordon Blakeley, and Billy Connors.  Damon taught me a lot about scouting and got me to spend less time on the computer and more time in the stands.  At the Braves it was and continues to be John Schuerholz, Frank Wren, Bruce Manno, Jim Fregosi, and Paul Snyder.  I consider John to be the best GM in the history of the game while Frank and Bruce are extremely bright and hard-working leaders who have helped me grow and provided me with opportunities.

How has your job description changed with the promotion to director of professional scouting?

Not at all.  Like Frank said it was more a case of having my title match my job description.  I still continue to lead our analytics department, statistical efforts, and arbitration research, but the most important work I do is with our scouts.  All of that work ties in with waivers, free agency signings, etc, and helps me assist Frank and Bruce in all facets of baseball operations.

You've called the current arbitration system "terrible."  Can you elaborate?

It’s a flawed system that leaves both parties unhappy.  I’ve done dozens of deals and don’t feel great about any of them, but I feel even worse about the process.  A couple of years ago Bruce and I were getting ready to pull two of our players out of big league spring training so we could fly them across the country to Phoenix in order for them to attend a hearing where they would hear us berate their performances in an effort to take money out of their pockets.  The cases got settled, but neither player is still in the Braves organization.

Assuming the current arbitration system stays in place, do you envision a day, perhaps five years from now, when advanced statistics will help one side win a hearing?

Arbitration is a complete crapshoot.  Either side – club or player – could make a compelling case and still lose based upon the whims of an arbitration panel that knows very little about baseball.

Do you have any ideas on changes that could eliminate the manuevering some teams do to prevent top prospects from getting Super Two status?

I don’t think a perfect system exists.  I would be lying if I said I didn’t think some clubs tried to prevent prospects from getting Super Two status, but I think it’s overstated.  Teams need to win games, otherwise the management team holding these players back will themselves be held accountable.  We all need to win and I know at the Braves we have never held somebody back because it might save us a few million dollars a few years down the line.

You recently mentioned Brooks Conrad, Jose Constanza, Eric O'Flaherty, and Cristian Martinez as minor league signings/waiver claims of which you're most proud.  Can you elaborate?

All of these waiver claims and minor league signings make me proud because it shows the great work our scouts are doing for the Braves.  A week ago we closed out a doubleheader sweep of the Mets in New York with Cristhian Martinez, Eric O’Flaherty, and Anthony Varvaro, all three of whom were claimed off waivers.  Dom Chiti and Jeff Wren pushed hard for Martinez.  Fregosi and Dick Balderson pushed hard for O’Flaherty and Varvaro.  Tim Conroy pushed hard for Constanza.  All of us talk about these players and Frank makes the final decision, but we are all part of the process, and I feel like we have had more success in these markets than any other team in baseball.

You've mentioned how the next Cubs GM will be entering a challenging situation.  What would be your approach to fixing the club?  Do you think the Cubs should use 2012 as a rebuilding year, despite the size of their fan base?

I don’t feel comfortable commenting on how other clubs should approach the construction of their club.  Our focus at the Braves is on getting into the playoffs, advancing as far as possible, and putting together another great club for 2012.

Minor Moves: Buente, Hendrickson, Ward

As I showed earlier today in my 10 Best Minor League Deals Of The Year post, minor moves sometimes have a major impact.  Today's latest: