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What Lies Ahead For ACES

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2011 at 11:21am CDT

Last month, we took a look at the upcoming offseason for the Boras Corporation.  Today I'll take a look at ACES, an agency that ranked eighth overall last offseason but always has a strong record getting multiyear deals and success with veteran free agents who aren't quite star-caliber.

Our agency database shows ACES has around a dozen notable clients eligible for free agency and likely to land big league deals.  They represent a pair of prominent closers in Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell, so it'll be interesting to see how they juggle clients who may share suitors.  However, both closers could re-sign with their current clubs.  Also on the relief front, ACES represents Fernando Rodney, who figures to sign a cheap one-year deal.

The agency has three starters up for free agency, and they're all innings types: Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez, and Jason Marquis.  As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted yesterday, Vazquez has come on strong with a 2.21 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 0.80 HR/9 in his last 16 starts.

Many of ACES' position player clients have seen better days: David DeJesus, Jonny Gomes, Raul Ibanez, and Jorge Posada.  But given his cache, Posada's venture into free agency should be an interesting one.  The agency represents a couple of backups having solid years in Jose Molina and Ramon Santiago; I wouldn't be surprised if they found multiple years for Molina.  The potential big name is Brandon Phillips, who's said it'd be a slap in the face for the Reds to just exercise his $12MM option.

Overall ACES' free agent class isn't as deep as in years past – there is no Joaquin Benoit, John Buck, Marlon Byrd, Chone Figgins, or Placido Polanco on which they can work their magic.  They are pretty well-positioned for future free agents, with Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Morse, Melky Cabrera, Brandon League, Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla, and Jason Motte heading up their arbitration class.  ACES client Dustin Pedroia is nowhere near his next big contract, but Shane Victorino is signed through 2012 and David Wright potentially through '13.

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Option Predictions: Relievers

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2011 at 10:11am CDT

Last week I predicted upcoming option decisions for all potential free agent position players and starting pitchers.  It's time to finish off the series with a look at 15 relievers.

  • Francisco Cordero, Reds: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  The Reds may work out a new contract prior to the option decision coming up in November, but if it gets to that point this will clearly be declined.
  • Brad Lidge, Phillies: $12.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout.  Lidge has returned from a rotator cuff strain to post high strikeout and walk rates with an 89 mile per hour fastball.  He'll be an interesting free agent after the option is declined.  
  • Joe Nathan, Twins: $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  Nathan is another closer with a big-money option that will be declined, but rumor has it the Twins would like to bring him back.  The 36-year-old had Tommy John surgery in March of 2010.
  • Jon Rauch, Blue Jays: $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Between an appendectomy and a knee injury, Rauch's season did not end well.  As a likely Type B free agent an arbitration offer is possible, but I think the option will be declined.
  • Rafael Soriano, Yankees: $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout.  Soriano is not expected to opt out of his contract, as he'd be leaving huge money on the table.  I suppose there is a tiny chance he'd just want a fresh start and a chance to close somewhere, but it's highly unlikely.  
  • Jose Valverde, Tigers: $9MM club option, no buyout.  Valverde's 43-for-43 performance in save opportunities has led to a new franchise record, and it seems very likely the option is exercised.
  • Octavio Dotel, Cardinals: $3.75MM club option with a $750K buyout.  There is uncertainty in the Cardinals' bullpen, and Dotel has been excellent in an 18 1/3 inning sample.  I think the Cardinals will exercise the option, but if not they could get a draft pick given Dotel's likely Type B status.
  • Kyle Farnsworth, Rays: $3.3MM club option with a $650K buyout.  He's had a strong year as the Rays closer, though his elbow has been barking lately.  Though a draft pick could be had, I see the Rays exercising this option.
  • Jason Frasor, White Sox: $3.75MM club option.  Frasor is not necessarily needed in the White Sox bullpen.  But I think someone will value him at this price and the Sox will exercise.
  • Chad Qualls, Padres: $6MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout.  Qualls has been useful, but this will be declined.
  • Yoshinori Tateyama, Rangers: $1MM club option.  At this price it's an easy decision to exercise.
  • Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: $3MM club option with no buyout.  I think getting Wheeler back at the same salary is fair, and the Red Sox will exercise.
  • Michael Wuertz, Athletics: $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Walks have been up in another season marred by injuries.  This could go either way but I think the A's will decline.
  • Jeremy Affeldt, Giants: $5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  It sounds like the Giants will decline the option if it gets to that point, but they'd like to re-sign him.
  • Damaso Marte, Yankees: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Marte ended up earning about $387K per inning on this contract.  The option will be declined.
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Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2011 at 9:15am CDT

The Athletics are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

  • First time: Andrew Bailey, Daric Barton, Adam Rosales, Gio Gonzalez, Landon Powell
  • Second time: Dallas Braden, Ryan Sweeney, Craig Breslow
  • Third time: Joey Devine
  • Fourth time: Brandon McCarthy

This entire group could reasonably be tendered contracts.  It's possible someone like Rosales, a potential Super Two, would be cut loose even though his projected salary is only $600K.  Powell, another likely Super Two, also failed to produce in the bigs but could be retained affordably.

Gonzalez should land the biggest salary at an estimated $3.6MM, as he'll be arbitration eligible as a Super Two.  Braden should stay around $3.3MM after missing most of the season.  Bailey could get $3.4MM for his first time through, while the A's can enjoy McCarthy cheaply for one more season at around $2.6MM.

Barton, Sweeney, and Breslow should fall in the $1.6-1.8MM range.  It was a lost season for Barton culminating in shoulder surgery, but it's still a reasonable price to retain him.  The A's also have Devine checking in around $900K.

In total we estimate $19.5MM for the Athletics' nine arbitration eligibles.  Assuming Michael Wuertz's option is exercised, the A's are looking at a commitment of maybe $44MM plus minimum salary players.  That'd put them $23MM short of this year's Opening Day payroll.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

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Marlins Release Mike Cameron

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2011 at 7:36am CDT

The Marlins released center fielder Mike Cameron after last night's win in Atlanta, tweets Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.  The move drops the team's 40-man roster to 39, though it'd fill back up if Scott Cousins is activated from the 60-day DL.

Cameron, 38, hit .239/.333/.423 in 163 plate appearances after being acquired from the Red Sox on July 5th.  The Red Sox paid the majority of Cameron's salary, having designated him for assignment a week prior.

Talking to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post this month, Cameron hinted at retirement, saying, "I may be too young to quit, but my body’s telling me different. My body’s 45."  Perhaps he'll change his mind once his body heals up, but if Cameron does call it quits he'll finish with a .249/.338/.444 batting line, 278 home runs, and over 15,000 innings of strong center field defense for the White Sox, Reds, Mariners, Mets, Padres, Brewers, Red Sox, and Marlins.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Mike Cameron

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Rosenthal On Guillen, Marlins, Reds

By Tim Dierkes | September 12, 2011 at 1:34pm CDT

The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

  • One prominent agent told Rosenthal he can envision a free agent frenzy if a labor agreement is reached by the start of the offseason.  The last labor agreement, in 2006 was followed by ridiculous overspending on mediocre veterans.  The current labor agreement is set to expire on December 11th, three days after the conclusion of this year's Winter Meetings in Dallas.
  • Rosenthal has a source familiar with the thinking of Ozzie Guillen who has recently dropped his predicted chances of the manager returning to 50-50.
  • Rosenthal sees "mixed signals" on whether the Nationals will spend big this offseason, but he considers Jimmy Rollins a good fit.
  • The Marlins intend to discuss every available starting pitcher this winter.  The free agent market is looking thin, so teams with starters to trade will be in a good position.
  • The Reds' top goal is to add a middle-of-the-order hitter.
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Epstein On Papelbon, Ortiz, Millwood

By Tim Dierkes | September 12, 2011 at 1:07pm CDT

The Red Sox have dropped five in a row, and GM Theo Epstein joined WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show today to offer his take.  A few highlights:

  • Epstein hasn't ruled out outside acquisitions, but internal solutions are much preferred.
  • "There's never been a lack of interest" in keeping closer Jonathan Papelbon in Boston.  Added Epstein, "I have to think there’s a lot of mutual interest in continuing the relationship."  Papelbon is eligible for free agency after the season, having earned $27.6MM over his three arbitration years.
  • The Red Sox are "obviously" interested in having designated hitter David Ortiz back, but Epstein says now is not the time to talk about that stuff.
  • The GM's thoughts on having Kevin Millwood in the organization: "At the time, we had guys ahead of him. His stuff, in our judgment and the judgment of our Triple-A staff, it wasn’t going to play at the major league level here for the Red Sox above the other options that we had."  The 36-year-old veteran has since posted a 3.79 ERA in six starts for the Rockies.

 

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Rays Designate Rob Delaney For Assignment

By Tim Dierkes | September 12, 2011 at 11:35am CDT

The Rays designated righty Rob Delaney for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for top prospect Matt Moore, reports Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.

Delaney, 27, spent most of the year at Triple-A.  There he posted a 1.86 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 0.4 HR/9 in 67 2/3 relief innings.  He'd been designated and outrighted in May, but was re-added to the 40-man roster in July.

Moore, meanwhile, is the consensus best pitching prospect in the minor leagues.  The 22-year-old southpaw has won back-to-back minor league strikeout crowns, whiffing 210 across 155 innings at Double and Triple-A this year.  Moore's electric arm makes for an exciting bullpen addition to a surging Rays team that now sits 3.5 games back of the Red Sox in the wild card standings.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Ramon Hernandez

By Tim Dierkes | September 12, 2011 at 11:14am CDT

During the period of 2003-06, Ramon Hernandez was consistently among the top ten offensive catchers in the game.  He hit .278/.335/.466 in 494 games in that time, averaging almost 19 home runs per season.  Fortunately for Hernandez, he reached free agency when he was still in his prime, and he scored a four-year, $27.5MM deal with the Orioles in December of 2005.

Hernandez

After three years in Baltimore Hernandez had worn out his welcome, and the Orioles shipped him to the Reds with cash for Ryan Freel, Justin Turner, and Brandon Waring.  Hernandez wasn't great in his first year with the Reds, but they re-upped him for $3MM anyway.  He managed to improve his batting average and power, but re-signed with the Reds again for the same money.  Hernandez has had another solid offensive year in 2011, though he is averaging less than 100 games per season.  Hernandez has re-entered the discussion of the ten best offensive catchers in baseball, but he's something less than a regular and will turn 36 in May.

Hernandez re-signed in November both times, before the Reds were forced to decide whether to offer arbitration.  If no deal is reached by the free agent arbitration offer deadline this year, the Reds will have a tough decision.  Hernandez profiles as a Type A free agent.  At the trade deadline, Reds GM Walt Jocketty wasn't even willing to listen to offers for him, under the assumption no team would offer enough.  In August, Hernandez was claimed off waivers but Jocketty again chose not to make a deal.

Jocketty's unwillingness to trade Hernandez suggests he's thinking of re-signing Hernandez, or at least is mulling an arbitration offer.  Hernandez and his agent Eric Goldschmidt are aware that turning down an arbitration offer from the Reds would hurt his market value, as a team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign him.  There's a case to be made for accepting an offer, as Hernandez clearly likes Cincinnati and he'd get a raise too.  But with Devin Mesoraco considered the catcher of the near future for the Reds and backup Ryan Hanigan locked up through 2013, how much playing time would Hernandez get?  The Reds could trade Hernandez if he accepts, at which point the catcher would probably wish he had simply chosen his destination in free agency.

There's an intricate game of cat-and-mouse when a free agent like Hernandez gets Type A status.  The Reds could play it safe and not offer arbitration, but then they'd risk getting nothing for him.  I think the club has more leverage here, since Hernandez would be tradeable if he accepts.  If he declines Hernandez would probably be the best catcher available on the free agent market, but he'd be a better fit for a team with a protected first-round draft pick.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

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Starters Who Could Be Extended Before Free Agency

By Tim Dierkes | September 12, 2011 at 9:23am CDT

Last year, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly, and Livan Hernandez signed extensions before hitting free agency.  So far this year, the big name is Chris Carpenter, who will reportedly sit out the free agent market with a two-year deal in hand.  Here are some other impending free agent starters I could see signing before open bidding begins.

  • Mark Buehrle, White Sox.  Based on the many reports on this topic, Buehrle's preferences appear to be A) the White Sox B) the Cardinals or C) retirement.  With the Cardinals' rotation looking full, the smart money is on a new deal with Chicago.
  • Aaron Harang, Padres.  It's well known that Harang wants to remain in his native San Diego.  I've mentioned that I could see both sides exercising his $5MM mutual option, though the two parties could work something out prior.
  • Rich Harden, Athletics.  As I mentioned last week, a one-year deal in the $4.5MM range could work for Harden, who wants to remain in Oakland.
  • Livan Hernandez, Nationals.  Hernandez has expressed his desire to stay with the Nationals, and there's be little harm in another $1MM deal.
  • Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals.  Wang's strikeout rate this year in eight starts is dangerously low, but there still appears to be something left in the tank post-shoulder surgery.  He wants to return, and may give a discount since he'll have earned $4MM over 2010-11 from the Nats for 50-odd big league innings.  It might be a stretch for the Nationals to sign both Hernandez and Wang to Major League deals though.
  • Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers.  Interest in a new contract seems mutual, assuming Kuroda does not return to Japan.  Kuroda, owner of a 3.25 ERA, might be a tough sell at $12MM again for the Dodgers because of raises due to Lilly ($4.5MM), Chad Billingsley ($2.725MM), and Clayton Kershaw (potentially around $6MM).
  • Paul Maholm, Pirates.  Maholm's season ended on a sour note with a shoulder injury, but interest in a new contract is mutual and the price might be reasonable.
  • Roy Oswalt, Phillies.  Assuming Oswalt's back is up to it and he wants to pitch again, perhaps he'd like to remain in Philly.  Like Carpenter, the option price is too high, but a new deal could be reached.
  • Tim Wakefield, Red Sox.  I expect Boston or retirement for Wakefield.  The decision to retire would be presumably be much easier if he gets his 200th win this month.
  • This isn't a glamorous bunch, but top pitchers such as C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson could re-sign quickly as well.  Throw in a few extensions from the list above, and the market for free agent starters could be extremely thin.
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Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals

By Tim Dierkes | September 12, 2011 at 7:48am CDT

The Royals are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

  • First time: Mitch Maier, Chris Getz
  • Second time: Luke Hochevar, Felipe Paulino, Brayan Pena
  • Third time: Alex Gordon
  • Fourth time: Melky Cabrera

I view Getz and Pena as non-tender candidates.  However, with projected salaries of a million bucks or less, they may be retained.  Maier is also in line for an affordable salary, at about $700K.

Paulino won't be going anywhere, as we have him down for about $1.6MM.  Hochevar leads the club in innings, and should jump up to the $4MM range.  Cabrera was a fine cheap free agent signing for GM Dayton Moore, who can retain the outfielder again for approximately $4MM.

We've got Gordon down for $4.3MM.  Extension talks are on the offseason agenda, so the Royals could get him at a reduced salary for 2012 as part of a long-term deal.

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