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Option Predictions: Position Players

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20 position players face contractual options; the deadline is typically three days after the World Series.  About 14% of the regular season remains, but let's make some predictions.

  • Ryan Doumit, Pirates: $7.25MM club option for 2012, $8.25MM club option for '13 with a $500K buyout.  These options must be decided in tandem after this season, and despite Doumit's production when he's been healthy this year it's highly likely they'll be declined.
  • Chris Snyder, Pirates: $6.75MM club option with a $750K buyout.  Snyder has missed most of the season due to back surgery, so this will be declined.
  • Yadier Molina, Cardinals: $7MM club option with a $750K buyout.  This one is a lock to be exercised.  Before the 2012 season begins, the Cardinals will have to discuss Molina's next contract.
  • Kelly Shoppach, Rays: $3.2MM club option with a $300K buyout.  Shoppach has had a rough year, and this is likely to be declined.
  • Eric Hinske, Braves: $1.5MM club option with a $100K buyout.  Hinske has performed about as expected, so I think this will be exercised.
  • Willie Bloomquist, Diamondbacks: $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout.  Rarely do we see both sides of a mutual option exercised, so I'll go with declined here.
  • Robinson Cano, Yankees: $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  This will surely be exercised, and his $15MM option for 2013 is looking good too.
  • Bill Hall, Giants: $4MM mutual option with a $250K buyout.  Not only is this option mutual, but it's kind of an automatic decline since Hall was released by the Astros and later designated for assignment by the Giants.
  • Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks: $8MM club option for 2012, $8MM club option for '13.  I don't think Hill's hot hitting with Arizona is enough to keep these from being declined.
  • Brandon Phillips, Reds: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  It sounds like this option will be exercised if an extension can't be worked out, which Phillips would consider a "slap in my face."  Yes, a $12MM slap in the face.
  • Yuniesky Betancourt, Brewers: $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  This one is certain to be declined.
  • Ronny Cedeno, Pirates: $3MM club option with a $200K buyout.  I expect Cedeno's option to be declined, as the Pirates aim to upgrade at shortstop.
  • Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout.  This is an easy choice to decline, though both sides have mutual interest in a new deal.
  • Marco Scutaro, Red Sox: $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout.  This is a tough one.  I think the Red Sox will decline their side of it, and it's possible Scutaro can do a little better and will decline as well.
  • Casey Blake, Dodgers: $6MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout.  This will certainly be declined.
  • Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  I agree with MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith; this will be exercised.
  • Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: $16MM mutual option.  If club declines, Ramirez receives a $2MM buyout.  If club exercises and Ramirez declines, he does not receive a buyout.  Ramirez has had a strong year, and there's a case for the Cubs to exercise their side since it keeps him on a one-year deal, the team has some money to spend, and the free agent market offers nothing else.  I think if the Cubs exercise at that slightly inflated price, Ramirez will not void, despite his desire for a multiyear deal.  Ultimately I think in November the club will decline though, and then the two sides will discuss a possible new contract.
  • Nate McLouth, Braves: $10.65MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout.  Certain to be declined.
  • Grady Sizemore, Indians: $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  Sizemore's final month should be a big factor here, but I think this will be exercised.
  • Nick Swisher, Yankees: $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  This one is an easy choice to exercise.
  • I've got 13 position players option being declined, with seven being exercised.

Barajas Hopes To Finish Career With Dodgers

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Rod Barajas hopes to play the rest of his career with the Dodgers, the catcher told Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times.  However, Dilbeck says the Dodgers are considering going cheap behind the plate next year with a tandem of Tim Federowicz and A.J. Ellis.

Federowicz will be a 24-year-old rookie next year, while Ellis will be a 31-year-old with less than a hundred games in the Majors.  Typically teams prefer someone more seasoned as the backup, although Ellis did catch 515 games across nine minor league seasons.

Barajas, 36, has played to expectations after signing for $3.25MM in December.  His standard good power/low on-base line comes to .236/.289/.445 in 289 plate appearances this year.  Barajas noted that his comfort level is playing four or five times a week, which probably leaves more than 60 starts for the other catcher.  Barajas has earned approximately $12.5MM in his career, and one way to increase his chances of staying with the Dodgers would be to drop his asking price by a few million dollars.

As Dilbeck notes, letting Barajas leave could be a way for the Dodgers to save $3MM this offseason.  The Icon Sports Group client projects as a Type B free agent, but I wouldn't expect the Dodgers to offer unless they want Barajas around next year.  

Furcal, Cardinals Have Mutual Interest

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TUESDAY: Furcal told Strauss, "I'd want to play for St. Louis,"  adding that he still needs to sit down with his agent Paul Kinzer and talk business.  

MONDAY: The Cardinals hope to explore a new contract with shortstop Rafael Furcal by month's end, GM John Mozeliak told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Mozeliak acknowledged that making it work financially is a challenge, but a Furcal contract is on his to-do list for September.  A shorter term is preferable for the team, and that's expected for Furcal since he's missed so much time due to injuries over the last few years.

Furcal, 34 in October, is hitting .228/.278/.390 in 134 plate appearances since the Cardinals acquired him at the trade deadline.  Mozeliak has bigger fish to fry in potential free agents Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Chris Carpenter, so signing Furcal quickly and affordably makes sense.  Technically Furcal faces a $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout.  That'll be declined, but a one-year deal for $4MM plus incentives seems reasonable.

Arbitration Eligibles: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Carmona would be arbitration eligible if the Indians decline his $7MM club option.  He hasn't been great in terms of the categories that earn pitchers big bucks in arbitration, but he's done enough for the option to represent about $1MM in savings.

The Indians' group doesn't appear to have any non-tender candidates.  Masterson projects to a healthy $4MM for his first time.  Choo had been on the fast track to big arbitration earnings, but this year's dismal counting stats may keep him under $5MM for 2012.  Perez's first 30+ save season should allow him to jump to $4.3MM.  Cabrera's power surge should push him to $4.9MM or so.  Hannahan, Smith, and Perez each project to fall in the $1.4-1.9MM salary range.

Assuming Carmona's option is exercised, these eight players should cost about $30MM in 2012.  If the Indians pick up Grady Sizemore's option as well, they'll be around $56MM.  That commitment is firmly in the middle of their last two Opening Day payrolls, though it doesn't account for minimum salary players.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox are next as we continue our series looking at each team's arbitration eligible players.

Pena is a non-tender candidate.  Though he could be retained with no raise on his current $1.6MM salary, he may need Tommy John surgery and might not be able to contribute much in 2012.

Quentin has solid production in the categories arbitration favors: home runs and RBIs.  That should lead to a salary in the $7.5MM range.

Danks is an interesting case for arbitration nerds.  He missed around four starts for an oblique strain this summer, at a point in his career where an inning is worth about $24K and a win around $80K in salary.  He's likely to come in under 180 innings and 10 wins.  There are few recent comparables for a five-plus service time starter like Danks, but Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Garza are current-year comparables whose fates will be intertwined.  A vintage Danks year might have resulted in a $10MM salary, but we see him closer to $8MM for 2012.

Retaining Quentin and Danks could put the White Sox around $105MM in commitments for 2012. That's well below this year's $128MM payroll, but with attendance down the team may pull back spending.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Rosenthal On Diamondbacks, Cubs, Royals

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The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

  • Former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes talked about the work of successor Kevin Towers: "Obviously, there were some holes on the roster that needed to be addressed. Kevin addressed them very well.  The bullpen killed the team in 2010. He made that group a lot better."  Arizona's bullpen ranks ninth in the National League with a 3.62 ERA, after placing last in '10 with a 5.74 mark.  Towers methods varied – David Hernandez was acquired in the Mark Reynolds trade, J.J. Putz received a big free agent deal, Joe Paterson came in the Rule 5 draft, and Micah Owings was signed to a minor league deal.  Free agent signing Aaron Heilman was the only bust; subtract his 35 1/3 innings and the bullpen's ERA drops to 3.32.
  • Cubs owner Tom Ricketts should not have given a four-year extension to vice president of player personnel Oneri Fleita before hiring a new GM, opines Rosenthal.  Rosenthal writes that Ricketts has "already diminished the power of his next GM."
  • Signing a major free agent starting pitcher is "almost out of the question" for the Royals this offseason.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rich Harden

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In the 2009-10 offseason, the Athletics guaranteed $12MM to injury-risk starting pitchers Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer.  For 2010-11, the A's made their major commitments to relievers Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour, but also picked up starters Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy for a total of $2.5MM.  So far in 2011, the two righty starters have combined for a tidy 3.76 ERA in 206 innings.

Less than a third of those innings have come from Harden, who developed a lat injury in February and didn't make his season debut until July 1st.  Since then Harden has made all of his scheduled starts, 11 of them heading into today's action.  He seemed headed to Boston on July 30th, but the Red Sox saw something they didn't like in his medical files and killed the trade.  Whatever they saw hasn't been an issue yet, as Harden made six starts in August and struck out 42.  During that time the Indians won a claim on Harden, but he again stayed put.

After a terrible 2010 with the Rangers, Harden appears to have returned to the formula that worked relatively well for him in '08 and '09: a huge strikeout rate, limited hits, lots of walks, and a lot of home runs allowed.  Though this approach has led to only a 4.55 ERA in 63 1/3 innings, Harden's 3.39 SIERA ranks fifth among impending free agent starting pitchers with at least 60 innings – just behind Bartolo Colon, C.J. Wilson, and Erik Bedard – though the innings cutoff was designed to include him.  Harden's 10.2 K/9 is easily tops among free agent starters, and ranks third in baseball overall. 

In 2008-09, Harden showed the ability to provide about 150 innings per season.  However, after '10 and '11, teams might have to lower their expectation to 100 innings.  Harden seems likely to continue signing one-year deals for the duration of his career, unless he takes off as a reliever at some point.  His last two free agent contracts guaranteed $7.5MM and $1.5MM, and I think we can split the difference and expect a guarantee in the $4.5MM range for 2012.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported that Harden would be happy to return to the A's next year, so perhaps they'll get a bit of a discount.

Quick Hits: McGowan, Kuo, Edwin Jackson

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Five years ago today, the Athletics claimed righty Jerome Williams off waivers from the Cubs.  Williams pitched 30 innings for the Nationals the following year, but then didn't pitch in the Majors until last month with the Angels.  Williams went through a lot in the meantime, and considers his return to the bigs "a fairy tale."  On to today's Labor Day links…

  • Dustin McGowan makes for another nice story; the Blue Jays reinstated him from the 60-day DL today.  The former first-round pick once seemed on the cusp of big things, but he hasn't pitched in the Majors in more than three years due to a pair of surgeries on his right shoulder.  He'll be one of seven arbitration eligible Blue Jays, but McGowan won't cost much to retain.
  • Dodgers reliever Hong-Chih Kuo is learning to manage his anxiety better, and intends to pitch next year, writes Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times.  If the Dodgers tender Kuo a contract, he'll earn at least $2.18MM in 2012.
  • Free agency will be "interesting," Cardinals starter Edwin Jackson tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  The Scott Boras client, who turns 28 on Friday, has a 3.78 ERA on the season and is on track to make 30+ starts for the fifth consecutive year.
  • Reliever Bobby Jenks is probably done for the season, Red Sox manager Terry Francona told WEEI's Rob Bradford and others today.  The big righty signed a two-year, $12MM deal after being non-tendered by the White Sox in December, but pitched only 15 2/3 innings for Boston due to a back injury.    

Red Sox Designate Drew Sutton For Assignment

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The Red Sox swapped out utility men today, designating Drew Sutton for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Nate Spears, tweets WEEI's Rob Bradford.

Both players were signed by the Red Sox to minor league deals in December.  Sutton bounced up and down with the Red Sox this year, and then dislocated his finger and needed surgery last month.  The 28-year-old hit .315/.362/.444 in his 60 plate appearances with the big club and has a .295/.382/.476 line at Triple-A.  This year he's played all around the infield and at the outfield corners.

Arbitration Eligibles: Detroit Tigers

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So far in our arbitration eligibles series we've covered all of the AL East: the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays.  Now we take on the AL Central starting with the Tigers.

I can see the Tigers tendering contracts to all but Thomas.  Porcello and Kelly project to be arbitration eligible as Super Twos.  Starters Porcello and Scherzer should get nice first-time salaries in the $4MM range.  Porcello, especially, is helped by a pre-arbitration salary of $1.536MM owing to the Major League deal he signed out of high school.  Kelly might get around $700K, while Coke projects at $1.4MM.  Thomas has battled elbow issues for most of the year, and the Tigers tried to outright him but had to put him on the 60-day DL.  He's likely to be cut prior to the non-tender deadline.

Young's non-tender candidacy was a factor in his trade to the Tigers.  His power has bounced back in 89 plate appearances with Detroit, though he's yet to draw a walk.  If you look at Young's current 2011 counting stats – 7 home runs, 49 RBIs, 39 runs – they should lead to a relatively meager raise.  We're thinking a $725K bump to a $6.1MM salary, a gamble the Tigers might take if they like what they see for the rest of the year.

If the Tigers retain Jose Valverde for $9MM and tender contracts to all arbitration eligibles, they'd have just under $100MM in 2012 commitments.  With a 2011 Opening Day payroll of $107MM, the Tigers would have to trade someone or raise payroll to 2008-10 levels to be able to add a prominent free agent or two.

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