Free Agent Stock Watch: Pat Burrell
Pat Burrell's stock reached a low on May 15th, when the Rays designated him for assignment. The move showed that the team was willing to eat nearly $7MM to get Burrell off the roster. He'd hit just .218/.311/.361 in 137 games as the team's designated hitter.
On May 29th, Burrell signed a minor league deal with the Giants. After five games at Triple A, Burrell joined the big league club. Since then he has a .272/.366/.510 line in 243 plate appearances – pretty much what the Rays expected when they signed him to a two-year, $16MM deal in January of 2009. He has, however, faced lefties a disproportionate amount of the time.
Burrell may be reluctant to return to the American League and a designated hitter role in 2011. That'll limit his market to National League clubs seeking a left fielder, as Burrell hasn't played first base in ten years. And Burrell's reputation in left isn't stellar. With about $70MM earned in his career, the slugger may focus more on playing time rather than guaranteed money for his next contract. He might be available for less than $2MM guaranteed, plus plate appearance incentives. Returning to the Giants will have to be at the top of his list, if they're interested.
Arbitration Eligibles: Detroit Tigers
A look at the Tigers players who will be eligible for arbitration after the season…
- First time: Armando Galarraga, Ryan Raburn
- Second time: Zach Miner
- Third time: Joel Zumaya
The Tigers have a low-key arbitration class this winter, with no monster raises expected. Miner and Zumaya could be non-tendered, as both are recovering from elbow surgery. The Tigers still may prefer to keep them off the free agent market though. Tendering contracts is not terribly risky, as both pitchers earned less than $1MM in 2010.
It appears that Galarraga will get in as a Super Two player, and it'll be Raburn's first time as well.
Odds & Ends: Dickey, China, Draft
Ten years ago today, the Mets traded 20-year-old outfield prospect Nelson Cruz to the Athletics for Jorge Velandia. Cruz had yet to make his pro debut. He was traded twice more before breaking out with the Rangers at age 27. Today's links, as Cruz returns from the disabled list…
- R.A. Dickey told Mike Mazzeo of the Newark Star-Ledger that New York is a great place for him. The knuckleballer is under control through 2011 as an arbitration-eligible player.
- William Wan of the Washington Post writes about MLB's efforts to grow interest in China.
- Chone Figgins had the biggest drop this year compared to last in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), according to Pat Andriola of FanGraphs.
- Baseball America's Jim Callis stacks this year's top 50 draft bonuses against MLB's top 50 slot recommendations.
Webb Seeking Significant Base Salary For 2011
2:13pm: Webb won't be signing cheaply. In an email to MLBTR, his agent Jonathan Maurer said:
"Webb loves Arizona and they will be considered highly, but Brandon WILL be looking at an incentive-based contract [with] a guaranteed base where [Brad] Penny and [Rich] Harden at $7.5MM, [Ben] Sheets at $10MM and [Tim] Hudson's $9.33MM average annual value are all conversation starters. Webb, when healthy, is one of the top pitchers in the game. Arizona is a great place to play, ([though] it has always been a hitter's park, Webb has dominated there) but I anticipate significant interest in what is a very healthy Brandon Webb, with his signature life back on all his pitches."
8:37am: When Josh Byrnes exercised Brandon Webb's 2010 club option in January, the expectation was that the pitcher would be ready for Spring Training following August shoulder surgery. Webb declined the team's overtures regarding a 2011 option, and I even opined that a return to form in 2010 could lead to an $80MM deal.
What a difference eight months makes. Byrnes was canned, replaced by Jerry Dipoto on an interim basis. Veterans Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Chris Snyder, and Chad Qualls were shipped out, saving the team many millions. And setbacks in Webb's recovery have him looking at a potential September debut in a relief role. Webb explained to the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro:
"The next few weeks are huge for next year. For one, I want to prove it to myself. And, two, I want to prove not only to the Diamondbacks but all the other teams out there that might be interested in me playing for them next year."
Despite the changes with the team, Webb's stance toward returning to the Diamondbacks next year remains the same. He hopes to return, but he understands he might end up leaving. Webb knows he's looking at an incentive-based deal, and says it'll be in the team's hands after the season. He had positive words for the revamped Arizona pitching staff, which is now built around Ian Kennedy, Joe Saunders, Dan Hudson, and Barry Enright.
Webb made similar comments about returning to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick in January, but at that time he focused a bit more on doing the best for his family and playing near his Kentucky home. At the time, I noted that Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland are fits geographically.
White Sox Acquire Manny Ramirez
The White Sox officially acquired Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers, tweets USA Today's Bob Nightengale. MLB Network's Peter Gammons tweets that the Sox decided to take on Manny's entire salary in lieu of surrendering a prospect, so this is a straight waiver claim. $3.8MM of Ramirez's $20MM salary remains, though three-quarters of that is deferred without interest. The move bears some similarity to Chicago's waiver claim of Alex Rios from the Blue Jays on August 10th of last year – both players were simply handed over for salary relief. In this case, Ramirez waived his no-trade rights without compensation.
Ramirez has worn out his welcome at each of his three previous stops, as chronicled by Yahoo's Jeff Passan. Still, he represents the best possible designated hitter upgrade the White Sox could have made. Manny is still a near-lock for a .400 OBP and .500 slugging percentage, and he may be motivated by his impending free agency and damaged reputation. The White Sox are running out of time to close the 4.5 game gap with the Twins. With 32 games remaining, Baseball Prospectus pegs Chicago's playoff chances at 8.9%.
Arbitration Eligibles: Cleveland Indians
A look at the Indians players who will be eligible for arbitration after the season:
- First time: Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Chris Perez, Aaron Laffey, Andy Marte, Joe Smith, Anthony Reyes
- Second time: Rafael Perez
Laffey, Marte, Smith, and Reyes have not impressed this year, so they're non-tender candidates. They wouldn't be too expensive to retain, but the Indians still might prefer to cut them loose or try to re-sign them to minor league deals. Rafael Perez figures to be tendered a contract, as he's building off a salary of just $795K and has excelled at least in getting groundballs.
Choo, Cabrera, and Chris Perez are the major cases for the Indians. Choo, a Scott Boras client, should jump up past $3MM. Josh Hamilton, who earns $3.25MM in his first arbitration year, could be a decent comparable. If not for Boras, Choo would be a good extension candidate. The Indians may prefer to wait a year with Cabrera, who missed two months this season with a broken left forearm. On the other hand, Cabrera has shown no ill effects in 36 games since his return, and perhaps the appeal of multiyear security would enable the Tribe to get a big discount.
If we're correct about the Super Two cutoff being around 2.125, Chris Perez will qualify. There's no rush to lock him up, unless the Indians think a full year of racking up saves in 2011 would artificially inflate his future salaries.
5 Surprises: Arizona Diamondbacks
Five Diamondbacks surprises that I would not have predicted in the offseason:
- Josh Byrnes' firing. Byrnes' contract ran through 2015 and included an ownership stake, so his July dismissal took me by surprise. The departure of Jeff Moorad may have been a factor, reported the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro. General Managing Partner Ken Kendrick cited the team's weak farm system as a primary reason, in that Piecoro article.
- Brandon Webb a non-factor. Byrnes and the rest of the team's management saw enough in Webb to exercise his club option in January at an $8MM net cost. Presumably they expected at least five months out of him. Instead, his recovery from August 2009 shoulder surgery will delay his 2010 debut until September, when he'll try to make a few relief appearances.
- The terrible bullpen. I wasn't thrilled with the D'Backs' additions of Aaron Heilman and Bob Howry, but I did not expect their pen to post an ERA near 6.00. Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez were much worse than expected, but the D'Backs haven't found much on the scrap heap or in the minors either.
- The Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson trades. Haren is signed through 2012 and Jackson through '11, but once Byrnes was fired these trades became much more realistic. I also thought Haren would bring a better package in return if dealt.
- The performances of Chris Young, Ian Kennedy, and Kelly Johnson. The bounceback seasons for Young and Johnson were not shocking, as they've had big league success before. The feeling on Kennedy heading into the season was that he made for a questionable #3 starter who would be decent if healthy. The 25-year-old righty is having a fine season with 140 strikeouts in 158 innings.
Rockies Seeking Relief Help
The Rockies are looking for a reliever, tweets SI's Jon Heyman. Colorado has mostly been subtracting lately, letting Brad Hawpe and Randy Flores go for nothing, but at 4.5 games out in the wild card Baseball Prospectus gives them a 10.7% playoff shot. Heyman believes the Rockies would probably settle for a "change-of-scenery type" reliever, with the good ones blocked. The team's Rafael Betancourt deal, struck in July of last year, could be the model in my opinion. At present, Betancourt is battling an abdominal strain.
Which relievers are still available, with the deadline looming tomorrow? My speculative list includes Brandon League, David Aardsma, Aaron Heilman, Mark Hendrickson, Todd Coffey, Pedro Feliciano, Chan Ho Park, Will Ohman, Brian Tallet, Joel Peralta, George Sherrill, Koji Uehara, Manny Parra, Mike Gonzalez, D.J. Carrasco, and Miguel Batista. I'm operating under the assumption the Blue Jays' relievers will not be dealt. The Rockies could also turn to free agents such as Brendan Donnelly or David Riske.
Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago White Sox
A look at the small group of White Sox players who will be arbitration-eligible after the season…
- Second time: John Danks, Carlos Quentin, Tony Pena
- Third time: Bobby Jenks
Look for relievers Jenks and Pena to be non-tendered - Jenks because he's already earning $7.5MM, and Pena because he's had a rough year. With J.J. Putz eligible for free agency, the Sox may have to revamp their bullpen again.
Danks, as well as Tampa Bay's Matt Garza, may be willing to buck the extension trend and go to arbitration a second time. Recent compares are scarce, but both could earn $6MM or so. That'd put Danks about $1.5MM up on teammate Gavin Floyd, who will earn $8.5MM for the same slice of his career after signing a four-year deal in March of last year. As of November of '09, Danks hoped to sign long-term with the Sox.
Quentin's .251 career batting average will hurt his arbitration argument, but with a likely 100 home runs and 300 RBIs under his belt he'll have a case for beating the $1.65MM raise earned by Josh Willingham and Luke Scott last winter.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Koji Uehara
As his two-year contract with the Orioles nears its conclusion, righty Koji Uehara is restoring some value. He sports a 1.91 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 in 28.3 relief innings and has quietly slipped into the team's closer role.
Uehara, 35, pitched well as a starter in 2009, but his season ended in June due to hamstring and elbow woes. He began this year with more of the same, but has been healthy for the last two months as a late-inning reliever.
Uehara was signed as the Orioles' first-ever Japanese player in January of 2009. HIs two-year, $10MM contract included $6MM worth of incentives for innings pitched and games finished that he was not able to reach. His path with the Orioles was not surprising; in June of 2008 NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman outlined Uehara's injury history and success coming out of the bullpen in '07. The contract indicates the Orioles were aware of the possibility that Uehara would switch to relief at some point.
Teams are more cautious in free agency now than they were two years ago. Plus, Uehara is no longer a mysterious figure. He's an injury-prone right-handed reliever who will be coming off a strong half-season at age 36 – not unlike Brendan Donnelly after the '09 season. Uehara's agent Mark Pieper would do well to get his client a $2MM guarantee this time around.