The Dan Haren Market
Diamondbacks interim GM Jerry Dipoto recently told CBS' Scott Miller, "We're not to the point right now where we're aggressively seeking [a Dan Haren trade]." Still, it's time for us to summarize the Haren situation.
Contract
Haren signed a four-year, $44.75MM extension in August of 2008 under previous GM Josh Byrnes. He has $3.45MM left this year, $12.75MM in 2011, $12.75MM in '12, and a $15.5MM club option for '13 with a $3.5MM buyout. In other words, Haren is guaranteed $32.45MM through 2012. If Haren had never signed the extension and hit free agency after this year at age 30, would he top two years, $29MM plus a club option? His next dozen starts are a factor, and maybe in this cautious time he wouldn't reach John Lackey money. But I still view the contract as a bargain relative to the free agent market.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported this weekend that Haren's no-trade clause allows him to block trades to a dozen teams, including the Reds. Rosenthal's source did not feel that Haren's no-trade list would be a factor, however.
Performance
Home runs and hits allowed are up this year for Haren, who has a 4.60 ERA through 20 starts. Though Haren's groundball rate is down a touch, his continually strong strikeout and walk rates suggest a pitcher capable of a sub-4.00 ERA from here on out. Since 2006, Haren has posted significantly higher ERAs in the second half. Is this a reliable trend? Haren's home run per flyball rate seems to jump every August. This could be a fluke – the Sabermetrics Library says home run per flyball rates "have little predictive value" year to year. It doesn't help that Chase Field inflates home runs by about 7%, according to The Bill James Handbook.
Asking Price/Availability
We have no trade history for Dipoto, as he's been a GM for less than a month. He told Miller he's not sure if trading Haren is smart business, but "what we do know is what value Dan brings to this team and what value he should hold in the market." All things considered, Haren is probably the best available starting pitcher. SI's Jon Heyman talked to one GM who described Dipoto's asking price as "two starters plus bullpen help." Earlier this month, Rosenthal and Bob Nightengale of USA Today both said the D'Backs would need to be "overwhelmed" or "blown away" to trade Haren. Dipoto was upfront to Miller about his reservations, saying "you might bite off your nose to spite your face" by trading the ace.
Interested Teams
- Tigers: Miller says they "appeared to be the only club with a scout dispatched solely to bird-dog Haren" Friday night. Back in May I noted that the Tigers should have over $50MM to play with for 2011 if they hold payroll steady, so they could afford Haren. The Tigers have plenty of young starters that would appeal to the D'Backs.
- Cardinals: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cards have interest in bringing Haren back and do have payroll capacity. Still, they'd be committing half their payroll to the rotation in 2011.
- Rockies: Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post doesn't feel that they'd overpay for Haren.
- Yankees: A case could be made for the Yanks adding Haren. However, ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that their top two priorities are improving the bench and adding a reliever.
- Phillies: ESPN's Jerry Crasnick said they have Haren on the radar, though David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News wondered if they'd even have the prospects to pull it off.
- Nationals: MLB.com's Bill Ladson reported on June 30th that they had expressed interest. GM Mike Rizzo craves "premier, front-line starting pitching." With Haren, the Nats would have a fearsome rotation in short order.
- Angels: Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times finds Haren to be "a natural trade target" for the Halos.
- I imagine other clubs would be interested. In my opinion, the White Sox, Brewers, Twins, Mets, and Padres could be fits, though the field becomes limited when you consider Arizona's asking price.
Padres Extend Bud Black
11:02am: GM Jed Hoyer officially announced Black's extension, according to a team press release.
7:27am: The Padres will announce a three-year extension for manager Bud Black today, reports MLB.com's Corey Brock. The deal also includes club options for 2014 and '15.
This is Black's fourth season managing the team, and many labeled it a rebuilding year after the '09 Jake Peavy trade. Instead, the Padres have the best record in the National League and are buyers at the trade deadline.
Red Sox Inquired On Leo Nunez, Cody Ross
The Red Sox inquired about Marlins players Leo Nunez and Cody Ross, reports Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Spencer adds that the Rangers asked about Jorge Cantu.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported Saturday that the Yankees are talking to the Marlins as well. Rosenthal speculated that Nunez and Ross would make sense for the Yanks. Brian Cashman's actual level of interest in the pair is unknown, but perhaps the AL East foes are targeting the same players. Nunez is in the midst of his best season, with a 2.87 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 50.5% groundball rate. About $837K remains on his contract, and he's under team control through 2012 as an arbitration-eligible player.
Ross' power has taken a dip, as his line stands at .279/.331/.409. ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that the Marlins' asking price is "very, very high, despite the fact that some teams view him as a non-tender candidate." Ross is earning $4.45MM this year after beating the Marlins in arbitration in February. He's under team control for next year, but as Olney suggests, the Marlins might be unwilling to give him that final arbitration raise. The Braves are known to have interest in Ross, while Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse reports today that the Padres are not a fit.
Cantu would be a two-month rental, as he's a free agent after the season. Surely the Marlins would like to clear some of his remaining $2.5MM. Despite a .258/.309/.416 line, Cantu has 52 RBIs. Aside from the Rangers, the Rockies are known to have an eye on him. Both teams might prefer a cheaper player like Ty Wigginton, however.
Isringhausen To Audition For Reds
Appearing on KFNS 590 The Fan with Doug Vaughn this morning, free agent reliever Jason Isringhausen said he has a tentative plan to audition for the Reds tomorrow. Isringhausen added that he expects to hear back from the Cardinals this week and implied that his agent has been in contact with the Yankees, Rays, and Royals.
Isringhausen admitted it'd be weird to pitch for the Reds against the Cardinals this summer as the teams battle for the NL Central. Walt Jocketty's Reds already count Scott Rolen and Russ Springer as organization members. Izzy, of course, tallied 217 saves in seven seasons for the Cards from 2002-08. Isringhausen's last appearance in the Majors came in June of 2009 with the Rays, after which he went down for Tommy John surgery. He said he's currently throwing three times a week and working on a changeup. He expects he'd need a couple of weeks in the minors to get ready.
Passan On Fielder, DeJesus, Oswalt
The latest from Yahoo's Jeff Passan…
- The Rays "won't go near" Prince Fielder due to a potential $16MM salary in 2011, says one Passan source. So far any Rays-Fielder connection has been purely speculative, though the team has a history of chasing big names at the trade deadline. To play devil's advocate to Passan, they could theoretically acquire Fielder now and trade him again in the offseason.
- Passan feels that the White Sox and Giants could match up on a Fielder trade, or the Brewers could wait until the offseason to trade their slugger.
- The Royals' steep asking price for David DeJesus: "a major league-ready prospect, along with at least one midlevel prospect or a pair of lower-level players." Another take on their asking price tweeted by Dan Hayes of the North County Times: an "ML-ready pitcher and a top prospect."
- Passan wonders if the Yankees will pursue Roy Oswalt, as they're "about the only team that could fit the $23 million left in his contract for the next year and a half onto their budget." Indeed, ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted today that the Yanks "have an advantage in that they're one of the few teams willing to take on payroll." We'll have to see whether the Yankees actually inquire on Oswalt and/or Ted Lilly in the coming days.
Red Sox Issues, Present And Future
A series of articles from WEEI's Alex Speier and Rob Bradford dig into pressing Red Sox issues…
- Speier looks at Boston's current tricky situation in regard to the trade deadline. Available star players are harder to come by than last year. The return dates of many injured Sox are unknown. Plus the Red Sox might not have the right trade chips to make a deal or the payroll space to accomodate a decent-sized salary.
- Bradford examines the future. Out of Victor Martinez, Adrian Beltre, and David Ortiz, who returns for 2011? Kevin Youkilis' future position may depend on which players Boston brings back for 2011.
- Speier talked to David DeJesus' former teammate John Buck, who feels the underrated outfielder would be a great fit for a contender. It'd be DeJesus' first taste of a pennant race.
White Sox Sign Jeremy Reed
The White Sox signed outfielder Jeremy Reed to a minor league deal yesterday, according to the team's transactions page. Reed has been assigned to the Triple A Charlotte Knights.
Reed, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays in January. He elected free agency after being outrighted earlier this month. Reed has come full circle since being ranked the 25th-best prospect in baseball as a member of the Knights heading into the 2004 season. He was traded to the Mariners in June of that year as the centerpiece in the Freddy Garcia deal. Reed hasn't hit as expected in his big league career, but he has been able to handle center field.
Blue Jays Acquire Yunel Escobar
The Blue Jays acquired shortstop Yunel Escobar and pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes from the Braves for shortstop Alex Gonzalez and minor leaguers Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky, according to a team press release. The Jays designated Ronald Uviedo for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.
The move comes as a big surprise, as Escobar was perhaps one of the more valuable commodities in the game when the 2009 season concluded. Just a few days ago, MLB.com's Mark Bowman wrote that the Braves "simply aren't willing to sell low on a guy who they still view as the game's top defensive shortstop." Escobar was worth over four wins last year, but his power has disappeared in 301 plate appearances this year. Escobar will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after this season, so he'll be under the Jays' control through 2013. Escobar's attitude was a likely factor in the deal; Bowman wrote in June that "there's no doubt that Escobar's flamboyant approach to the game has continued to infuriate some members of the Braves organization." Back in February, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez went more in-depth on the attitude angle.
Gonzalez will replace Escobar as the Braves' starting shortstop as they enter the second half with a four game lead in the NL East. He doesn't get on base, but he's already hit 17 home runs on the season and continues to play strong defense. Gonzalez is owed another $1.23MM this year and has a $2.5MM club option for 2011. Braves GM Frank Wren told David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "This trade improves our club for the second half of the season."
Reyes, a 25-year-old southpaw, has spent most of the season at Triple A. His strikeout and walk rates are strong in his fourth stint at the level, but he's had problems with home runs and hits. Baseball America regarded Reyes as the Braves' eighth-best prospect heading into the 2007 season, calling him a "thick-bodied lefthander who does a good job of keeping hitters off balance." He's dealt with injuries, including Tommy John surgery in '04.
Collins, a 20-year-old lefty, was ranked 19th among Blue Jays prospects by Baseball America heading into this season. The 5'7" southpaw "gets outs with a solid fastball that tops out at 93 mph and a true 12-to-6 curveball that he spins really well." Working in relief, Collins has a 15.3 K/9 in 43 Double A innings this year. Pastornicky, a 20-year-old shortstop, was ranked 17th. He's described as a player who "doesn't have flashy tools but gets the most out of what he has." In the best case, he'll become a line drive top of the order hitter with solid defense, indicates BA. As for Uviedo, the Jays had acquired him from the Pirates in the June Dana Eveland deal. BA described him as rail-thin and homer-prone heading into the '09 season, but praised his fastball and slider.
My take: this is certainly a win-now move for the Braves, who are confident Gonzalez will provide more over the next few months than Escobar would have. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, managed the rare feat of acquiring three-plus years of a shortstop with star potential without giving up much.
Long Island Ducks Sign Kip Wells
The Long Island Ducks signed pitcher Kip Wells, according to the Atlantic League's website. Wells, 33, posted a 5.33 ERA, 5.3 K/9, and 5.0 BB/9 in 72.6 innings for the Reds and Nationals last year. The Reds had re-signed Wells to a minor league deal in mid-February this year, but cut him loose in April.
Boras Vs. Olney
An amusing back-and-forth is emerging between agent Scott Boras and ESPN's Buster Olney, with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel trying to be the objective party while relaying Boras' comments.
The discussion began Monday when Boras expounded to Haudricourt on the virtues of his client, Prince Fielder. Boras drew a comparison to another of his clients, Mark Teixeira, who received an eight-year, $180MM contract before the 2009 season.
The following day, Olney posted a blog with anonymous quotes from multiple baseball executives, including GMs, who were concerned by Fielder's hefty body type on a long-term deal. Olney suggested that even now, Fielder is regarded as "one of the worst first basemen in the majors."
Boras was not able to let Olney's comments slide, and Haudricourt has more from the agent in a new blog post today. Boras cited error totals to defend Fielder's defense, and also railed against the use of unnamed sources. Boras added that he's "tired of pundits broadcasting their forecasts of free agent markets in July," and said that Olney's predictions for many of his clients have ended up being low. It'd be interesting to put numbers behind the claim.