Two New Mock Drafts
Baseball's amateur draft is just 12 days away. The latest links:
- AOL FanHouse's Frankie Piliere takes a second pass at a mock draft for the first round. This time he has the Royals taking Ole Miss lefty Drew Pomeranz at #4. Pomeranz is pitching in the SEC Tournament today.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo projects the top 20, with Florida Gulf Coast lefty Chris Sale going to the Royals.
- Mayo also has an article profiling the draft's top outfielders, with video for each.
- ESPN.com's Keith Law posted his most recent mock draft yesterday.
Rangers Inquire On Roy Oswalt?
Rangers President Nolan Ryan called to inquire on Roy Oswalt, reports Mark Berman of FOX 26 Sports. Yesterday, however, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan wrote that the Rangers are not going to get involved in Oswalt trade talks, as it's unlikely they could even take on a fraction of his contract. Plus, Sullivan learned from GM Jon Daniels that adding starting pitching is not a high priority. Also yesterday, ESPN's Tony Jackson said the Astros are not looking to trade Oswalt at this point.
Buster Olney wondered today if the Rangers could take on a less-expensive player like Cliff Lee. Olney's example: if the Rangers convinced the Mariners to take Rich Harden and his contract, they could offer better prospects for Lee. We've seen the Dodgers make payroll-neutral trades in recent years, even giving up Carlos Santana and Jon Meloan for Casey Blake in 2008.
Trades Should Increase After Draft
As you'd expect, front offices are currently spending a lot of time preparing for the draft, which takes place June 7th-9th. ESPN's Buster Olney spoke to one GM about the likely timetable on trading: "I think the draft is preoccupying everybody. Once you get past the draft, you'll probably see some stuff start to happen."
Our post yesterday showed that progression to be typical – of the handful of significant June trades in recent years, most took place during the final week. The Pirates and Braves were a rare exception last year, working out the Nate McLouth deal six days before the draft.
One Olney source speculates that teams may be rewarded for shopping veterans aggressively and trying to move contracts quickly. Theoretically, clubs like the Orioles, Indians, and Astros could save more money by offering an extra month of a player's services. Olney notes that "it appears that there are going to be very few teams willing to take on significant dollars."
Odds & Ends: Loe, Baldelli, Vizquel, Hill
Links for Tuesday, as catcher Chris Iannetta rejoins the Rockies after a torrid Triple A stint…
- Kameron Loe has a clause in his contract that allows him to ask for his release if he isn't in the major leagues by June 5th, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Loe is pitching well for the Brewers' Triple A affiliate.
- Morosi also notes that Rich Hill, who is pitching at Triple A for the Cardinals, has a June 1st opt-out clause in his contract (Twitter link).
- Rocco Baldelli tells Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal that he hasn't thought about returning to the majors for a team other than the Rays. Baldelli says he would prefer the Rays to another organization.
- Omar Vizquel says he will likely retire if he doesn't finish the year well, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times.
- The Rays released Eduardo Morlan and Cody Strait, according to Stacy Long of the Montgomery Advertiser. The Rays acquired Morlan in the Matt Garza–Delmon Young trade.
- Click here to listen to my appearance today with Jeff & Jeff of KFNS St. Louis.
- Yahoo's Jeff Passan tells the story of Sergio Santos, a converted shortstop who has a 0.52 ERA and 10.9 K/9 as a White Sox reliever.
- Baseball America's Jim Callis compares Manny Machado to other high school shortstops in recent draft history. Yesterday in his mock draft ESPN's Keith Law wrote that the Pirates have Machado and lefty Drew Pomeranz high on their list for the second overall pick.
- AOL FanHouse's Frankie Piliere is hearing buzz about the Reds considering Alex Wimmers with the #12 pick (Twitter link). Law had the Ohio State righty going 16th to the Cubs, picking catcher Yasmani Grandal for the Reds.
- Law ranked James Paxton 12th overall, but doesn't project the lefty as a first-round pick. Paxton, a Boras client, is now pitching independent ball after losing his NCAA eligibility. According to Matthew Sekeres of The Globe and Mail, Paxton has no ill will toward Paul Beeston and the Blue Jays.
Roy Oswalt Rumors: Tuesday
9:00pm: The Astros are not looking to trade Oswalt now, according to Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com. The Dodgers are not in active talks to trade for the right-hander at this point.
8:15pm: The Rangers are content with their current pitchers and have limited financial flexibility, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. GM Jon Daniels told Sullivan that the club is not looking for pitching – at least for now.
"That could always change," Daniels said. "You've got to be open-minded about adding an impact pitcher."
8:34am: Prepare yourself for a couple months of Roy Oswalt rumors. Today's batch:
- ESPN's Buster Olney says the Commissioner's Office would have to approve an increased payroll for the Rangers to take on Oswalt. Such approval would likely displease other teams.
- Olney tweets that he's in agreement with colleague Jayson Stark that the Twins are worth monitoring in the Oswalt derby. The Twins have a solid rotation of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, and Kevin Slowey. They'd be better-served pursuing a third baseman.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post spoke to Oswalt's friend Andy Pettitte, who said, "Roy doesn't want to guess. He would only leave to take a real shot at the World Series." Sherman says Oswalt also craves stability. Sherman does not feel the Mets are currently a viable option, but there is no clear contender with the need and the money. In a blog post, Sherman favors the Angels for Oswalt.
- Bernardo Fallas and Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle analyze eight possible suitors.
Mets Claim Justin Turner
The Mets claimed infielder Justin Turner off waivers from the Orioles, tweets Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The O's had designated Turner for assignment on Friday to make room for Scott Moore. Connolly notes that Mets executive Wayne Krivsky drafted Turner as Reds GM back in '06.
Turner, 25, hit .300/.362/.388 in 441 Triple A plate appearances last year. He's failed to match that production in 95 PAs this year. Turner has mostly played second base this year, but he's also spent time at third base and shortstop.
Heading into the '09 season, Baseball America ranked Turner 27th among Orioles prospects after he came over in the Ramon Hernandez deal. BA wrote that Turner is a competitive "baseball rat" who has a shot at becoming a utility player in the bigs.
Biggest June Trades In Recent Years
June is around the corner, and trade talks will begin in earnest. Most of the bigger recent June deals occurred toward the end of the month; let's take a look.
- June 3rd, 2009: Pirates traded Nate McLouth to the Braves for Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke. Pirates GM Neal Huntington could not resist the Braves' offer. McLouth has been disappointing for Atlanta, while the players the Pirates acquired still retain promise.
- June 27th, 2009: Indians traded Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez and Jess Todd. DeRosa injured his wrist days after the trade and didn't produce in St. Louis. The book isn't closed on the Cards' side, as they snagged the #46 pick in this year's draft when DeRosa left as a free agent. Perez has a 3.51 ERA, 9.6 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in his Indians career, picking up a few saves along the way. Todd has yet to experience big league success.
- June 29th, 2007: Athletics traded Milton Bradley and cash to the Padres for Andrew Brown. Bradley raked for the '07 Padres, who just missed the playoffs. Bradley's season ended with a torn ACL on a bizarre incident. Given the uncertainty, GM Kevin Towers decided not to offer arbitration. Brown was released by the A's in January of '09.
- June 30th, 2006: Mariners traded Asdrubal Cabrera to the Indians for Eduardo Perez. A month later GM Bill Bavasi would trade Shin-Soo Choo to the Indians along with another player for Ben Broussard and cash. Choo became a star, while Cabrera is Cleveland's starting shortstop (he's currently recovering from a broken forearm). Both first basemen struggled in Seattle, though Broussard stuck around through the following season and was dealt for Tug Hulett. Thinking short-term, Bavasi did a lot of damage in the course of about a month.
- June 24th, 2004: Royals traded Carlos Beltran to the Astros for Octavio Dotel and John Buck; Royals traded Dotel to Athletics for Mark Teahen and Mike Wood. The Astros of course got a ton from Beltran in his brief time with the club. They added Eli Iorg and Tommy Manzella as draft picks for Beltran's departure. Teahen, Buck, and Wood were mostly disappointing for Kansas City. One thread of the Beltran deal is still somewhat alive for them in the form of Chris Getz and Josh Fields.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Derek Jeter
Last September, SI's Jon Heyman guessed the Yankees would eventually re-sign Derek Jeter for at least $60MM over three years. Bob Klapisch of FOX Sports suggested in November that the Yankees give him a four-year, $100MM extension beginning with the '10 season. As recently as March, Heyman talked to two rival executives who believed Jeter would seek six years.
We haven't seen those kinds of contract estimates lately. Noting Jeter's reduced range to his left, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote on May 6th that the length of Jeter's next contract "is one of the toughest issues in the history of the organization." More recently, Sherman wondered if the prices for Jeter and Mariano Rivera will come down as they fail to match their 2009 seasons.
Jeter is currently hitting .276/.320/.396 in 206 plate appearances this season. His walks are down and he's swinging at more pitches outside the zone than ever. It'd easily be the worst offensive season of his career, though he still has plenty of time to right the ship. He had two similar offensive months to start the '08 season, but regained his form in June.
Consider this hypothetical situation. Say the Astros had drafted Jeter first overall in 1992 instead of Phil Nevin. Jeter has the same legendary career in Houston, but still reaches free agency after the 2010 season. With Jeter's game potentially slipping, the Astros decide to part ways and don't offer arbitration. The Yankees need a shortstop. What's their contract offer? I'm thinking three years, $30MM at most. Even three years might be a reach for a 36-year-old player.
Back to reality: Jeter is the face of the Yankees, and an extension seems a near-certainty. Based on Heyman's September guess, Jeter's premium could be in the range of $10MM annually, plus an extra year or two.
Rosenthal On Oswalt, Kearns, Dunn
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports leads his latest column with an imagined conversation between Astros owner Drayton McLane and GM Ed Wade, in which Wade attempts to educate McLane on the realities of Roy Oswalt's trade value. Rosenthal's hot stove notes…
- Like most people, Rosenthal can't see the Reds splurging on Oswalt. He finds the Mets "an even less serious contender" due to limited finances.
- Rosenthal points out that Carlos Zambrano hasn't shown himself to be worthy of replacing anyone in the current Cubs' rotation. At the moment, the Cubs appear to have a surplus.
- Rosenthal notes that the Majors' current home run kings – Jose Bautista, Paul Konerko, and Ty Wigginton – could be available at the trade deadline. Who would've predicted these three would top the leaderboard on May 24th? With Kelly Johnson tied for fourth? The Jays acquired Bautista in August of '08 without much fanfare, sending catcher Robinzon Diaz to Pittsburgh. The Pirates designated Diaz for assignment last November.
- Austin Kearns would be a nice match for the Giants, suggests Rosenthal. The 30-year-old outfielder is hitting .304/.377/.487 in 130 plate appearances for the Indians this year. Nate Schierholtz hasn't been much worse, though he's dealing with a bruised shoulder at the moment.
- Rosenthal feels that the Nationals will strike a deal to keep Adam Dunn in Washington before he reaches free agency.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Millwood
I wasn't a huge fan of the Orioles' acquisition of Kevin Millwood, as I felt $9MM was still pretty hefty for a starter of his caliber and he wasn't likely to return a useful prospect at the trade deadline. One team executive agreed, citing the Rangers' moving most of Millwood's salary as one of the best deals of the offseason.
With about 28% of the season in the books, Millwood is vindicating Andy MacPhail's acquisition. The 35-year-old righty leads the American League in innings, averaging 6.8 per start. He's allowed a fair share of hits and home runs, but has managed a 3.71 ERA due to the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career.
Will the Orioles trade Millwood? It'd be a logical move, but the Orioles' rotation is already ranked 12th in the American League in ERA. Without Millwood the team's rotation ERA would be over 5.00 and the bullpen would be even more taxed. An arbitration offer after the season could net the Orioles a draft pick, as Millwood is currently a Type B free agent. Of course, the O's would need to offer arbitration and have the Scott Boras-represented pitcher decline.
Millwood has Boras, but he still may have to accept a one-year deal in the $5-7MM range in free agency. That'd fit with the deals signed by Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, Carl Pavano, and Brad Penny last winter. At least Millwood doesn't have to worry about a conflict of interest, as Boras doesn't have much else in the way of starting pitching next winter.