Zduriencik Looking For Offense
On Saturday, Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider looked at a bunch of potentially players who could help the Mariners' anemic offense. Ms GM Jack Zduriencik talked to the AP about the situation yesterday:
"I've made a tremendous amount of phone calls. I continue to make phone calls. I've made several phone calls in the last three or four days. But it's like hunting season. It's not hunting season right now. Nobody's selling."
White Sox GM Kenny Williams said something similar to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times:
"I don't think anyone is really prepared to make any deals. And any interest expressed in any players out there who are impact guys has been done for quite some time. There really isn't much substance to anything at this stage of the season. Another 30 games, and you'll start to see talk pick up."
It's true that we shouldn't expect many big trades in May. I'm not sure why the Orioles and Royals wouldn't be willing to sell, but maybe they'd prefer to let the market develop.
The Mariners might be able to improve the offense by replacing Ken Griffey Jr. His .527 OPS is among the worst in baseball, but he's only had 63 plate appearances. Zduriencik says Griffey still has some time to find his way out of the slump: "You wait and see. You hope he gets on track. It's early. If he continues [to struggle] we will have to have some discussions with that."
If The Brewers Become Sellers
The Brewers are five games under .500, 7.5 games back in the NL Central. We're not writing them off, but it's time for the "if they become sellers" treatment.
The big question is whether the Brewers would entertain offers for Prince Fielder if they're out of contention in July. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports had a good look at the situation yesterday – perhaps they'd find more suitors in the offseason, and Adrian Gonzalez's potential availability would be a complication. If Fielder does hit the market, I expect a trade return that can help the Brewers significantly in 2011. That might mean two starters they can plug directly into the rotation. A Fielder trade would probably save the Brewers decent money, which could go toward free agents.
Corey Hart would be an interesting trade candidate. He's playing at a similar level to last year, and the Brewers might not want to give him a raise on this year's $4.8MM salary.
A slew of middling Brewers veterans would probably be made available: Jeff Suppan, Trevor Hoffman, David Riske, Doug Davis, Gregg Zaun, Dave Bush, Craig Counsell, Jody Gerut, Claudio Vargas, and Jim Edmonds. The Brewers' goal would be to save as much money as possible.
2011 Contract Issues: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox face four contractual options after the season:
- Designated hitter David Ortiz has a $12.5MM club option. This will be declined.
- Third baseman Adrian Beltre has a $5MM player option that increases to $10MM with 640 plate appearances. It'll be tough to reach that plate appearance benchmark, and if the option remains at $5MM it'll be an easier choice for Beltre to decline. He gets a $1MM buyout for reaching 575 PAs.
- Bill Hall has a $9.25MM club option with a $500K buyout. Doug Melvin signed Hall to this extension in February of '07. Here in 2010, Theo Epstein won't be considering the option.
- Reliever Scott Atchison has a $440K club option with a $10K buyout. He's currently with Pawtucket.
The Sox have four additional free agents: Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Scott Schoeneweis. They earn a total of $23.2MM this year. Around $46MM will come off the books if everyone leaves. There are also a few decreases to consider – $2MM for Tim Wakefield if he fails to reach 130 innings, and $6.25MM for John Lackey assuming his signing bonus was paid up front. 2010 obligations to former players total $10.5MM (Julio Lugo, Billy Wagner, and Alex Gonzalez). If everyone leaves, and we add in the decreases and money to former players, the Red Sox free up around $64.75MM. I assume things look different for luxury tax purposes, but we're keeping it simple.
The Red Sox have five players under contract getting raises: Kevin Youkilis, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, and Josh Beckett. Those raises total $10.525MM. Boston also has Jacoby Ellsbury going to arbitration for the first time, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, and Boof Bonser in the second-time group, and Jonathan Papelbon and Jeremy Hermida as third-timers. We'll assume this results in $10MM worth of raises.
By my estimate, the Red Sox would have more than $40MM to work, holding payroll steady. It's more complicated than what I've done here, but they'll be able to address catcher, third base, and designated hitter without a big payroll increase.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Odds & Ends: Harper, Escobar, Vazquez, Gordon
Links for Monday, as Joe Blanton makes his 2010 debut…
- Washington GM Mike Rizzo scouted Bryce Harper in person for the first time, and he and scouting director Kris Kline came away confident in Harper's makeup, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
- Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com takes an in-depth look at the Pirates' arms throughout the organization.
- The Chicago Tribune's Mark Gonzales writes that GM Ken Williams is exercising patience when it comes to trading, despite the White Sox' slow start.
- Kelvim Escobar will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a torn capsule in the front of his right shoulder, tweets MLB.com's Anthony DiComo. Escobar signed a one-year deal with the Mets this winter for $1.25MM.
- Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues looks at the pitchers the Yankees were considering over Javier Vazquez, noting that they've all had concerns as well. The Yankees will delay Vazquez's sixth start until a week from today against the Tigers. John Harper of the New York Daily News wonders if the Yanks should ship Vazquez to the Mets.
- Joe Posnanski questions the Royals' decision to demote Alex Gordon. Gordon will play left field and first base in the minors, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports points out the Tigers' collection of young talent.
- Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times wonders what's happened to George Sherrill. The 33-year-old lefty has allowed 12 hits and 11 walks in nine innings so far. Given his $4.5MM salary this year, Sherrill is a prime candidate to be non-tendered after the season.
- RotoAuthority notes that while Vazquez and Ben Sheets have been brutal so far, they could still have fantasy value this year.
2011 Contract Issues: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds face a slew of contractual options after the season:
- Aaron Harang has a $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout. The option price increases by $250K if Harang reaches 210 innings. Plus, both the option price and buyout increase if he's traded. If Harang stays with the Reds through the season, they'll decline.
- Bronson Arroyo has an $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout. The option can increase to $13MM based on innings pitched. I envision the Reds declining this as well, giving them flexibility to sign a veteran replacement.
- Shortstop Orlando Cabrera has a $4MM mutual option, with a buyout that can be worth either $0.5MM or $1MM. It'll probably be the latter, assuming the player exercises and the club declines.
- Catcher Ramon Hernandez has a $3.25MM option that vests with 120 games. Assuming Ryan Hanigan stays healthy, this won't vest.
- Outfielder Jonny Gomes has a $1.75MM club option with a buyout ranging from $50K to $200K based on plate appearances.
The Reds have three other free agents in Arthur Rhodes, Mike Lincoln, and Miguel Cairo. The trio earns $5MM this year. All told the Reds will clear just under $30MM if all of these players are allowed to leave, accounting for buyouts.
The Reds have $4.76MM in increases to players under contract, most of it going to Brandon Phillips. They'll also owe first-time arbitration raises to Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings, and Bill Bray. Jared Burton and Laynce Nix will be in the second-time class. It'll cost over $10MM extra to retain the key players, with Votto getting the biggest bump.
Holding payroll steady and allowing all free agents to leave, the Reds should have over $10MM to work with. They'll have a lot of holes to fill. If the Reds are out of the race in a few months, saving $5-10MM in salary dumps would go a long way for 2011.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Heyman On Harper, Werth, Rollins
SI's Jon Heyman has word on Bryce Harper's expected demand after the 17-year-old catcher is drafted next month. Heyman says the Scott Boras advisee "will seek to break last year's record $15.67 million bonus set by Stephen Strasburg." It should be noted that in most places Strasburg's big league deal is reported as $15.1MM. That deal included a $7.5MM bonus. Back on April 20th, Baseball America's Jim Callis predicted Harper would sign for eight figures but less than Strasburg. For more on the largest contracts in draft history, check out Mike Axisa's recent post. On to Heyman's other rumors…
- Heyman writes of pessimism that the Phillies can re-sign Jayson Werth.
- Heyman adds that "People around baseball do expect the Phillies to make a huge effort to extend Jimmy Rollins beyond 2011, though there's no evidence there's any progress on that front." Perhaps as a sign of goodwill, the Phillies exercised Rollins' $8.5MM club option for 2011 in December of '09. Will the Phils give Rollins the Ryan Howard treatment, and extend him well before they need to?
Mariners Release Ricky Orta
The Mariners released righty Ricky Orta to free up a 40-man roster spot for one of their recent call-ups, according to a team press release.
Orta, 25, posted a 1.94 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 41.6 Double A innings last year. Baseball America ranked Orta 27th among Mariners prospects heading into the season, expecting him to reach the big league bullpen. However, he had Tommy John surgery in the spring.
Impending Free Agents By WAR
You can't do much with a month's worth of data, but we like to look anyway. Wins Above Replacement is a good way to boil down any player's contribution to one number. Pulling data from FanGraphs, these 2011 free agents are potentially raising their stock. Of course, WAR isn't everything, as Felipe Lopez can attest after signing for a million bucks following a 4.6 win season.
- Carl Crawford – 1.4 WAR
- Paul Konerko – 1.4
- Alex Gonzalez – 1.3 (has a club option)
- Ty Wigginton – 1.2
- Johnny Damon – 1.2
- Brad Penny – 1.1
- Magglio Ordonez – 1.0 (has a vesting option)
- Jorge Cantu – 1.0
- Austin Kearns – 1.0
- Andy Pettitte – 0.9
- Carl Pavano – 0.9
- Miguel Olivo – 0.9 (has a club/mutual option)
- Jayson Werth – 0.8
- Orlando Hudson – 0.8
- Hiroki Kuroda – 0.8
- Andruw Jones – 0.8
- Derek Jeter – 0.7
- Miguel Tejada – 0.7
2011 Vesting Options Update
We entered the season with nine 2011 vesting option situations to watch. With one month in the books, several have already been pretty much decided. Let's take a look.
- Brian Fuentes, Angels. A back strain put Fuentes on the DL for a little while, making it unlikely he reaches 55 games finished. He'd need 51 in the team's remaining 136 games to cause his $9MM option to vest.
- Billy Wagner, Braves. Wagner's $6.5MM option vests with 50 games finished. He's finished eight games so far, and would have a shot at 50. However, the 38-year-old lefty recently told Braves manager Bobby Cox he'll retire after the season.
- Trever Miller, Cardinals. His $2MM option vests with 45 games, and he's appeared in seven so far. That's behind Miller's typical pace; he's averaged 71 the last three years. It's probably random, and Miller should still reach 45 games.
- Matt Cain, Giants. The $6.25MM option probably would've vested, but the Giants decided to guarantee Cain's 2011 salary at $7MM as part of an extension.
- Kerry Wood, Indians. His $11MM option vests with 55 games finished, but a back injury has Wood just now approaching his 2010 big league debut.
- Alex Cora, Mets. His $2MM option vests with 80 starts. He's started ten games so far. With Luis Castillo and Jose Reyes in the Mets' middle infield, we can't rule this one out yet.
- Darren Oliver, Rangers. His $3.25MM option vests with 59 appearances. He's already made a dozen, so this is looking likely.
- Ramon Hernandez, Reds. His $3.25MM option vests with 120 games played. Hernandez is at 16 so far, with the red-hot Ryan Hanigan getting more playing time recently.
- Magglio Ordonez, Tigers. His $15MM option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances. He's at 25 games started and 113 plate appearances, so he'll get there barring injury.
- We're down to five vesting options to monitor: Miller, Cora, Oliver, Hernandez, and Ordonez. Also keep an eye on Francisco Rodriguez, whose scary $17.5MM option for 2012 vests with 100 games finished in 2010-11, 55 games finished in '11, and a successful physical after the '11 season. K-Rod has finished nine games on the young season.
2011 Contract Issues: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays face two contractual options after the season:
- Reliever Dan Wheeler has a $4MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Wheeler is homer-prone, but he's somehow kept hits off the board in his best years. He's also struggled against lefties at times. The Rays may have better ways of spending the $3MM net price.
- Infielder Willy Aybar has a $2.2MM club option with a $275K buyout. For the Rays this is a matter of determining what Aybar would otherwise earn as a member of the third-time arbitration class.
The Rays have a huge slate of important free agents, headlined by Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, and Rafael Soriano. Grant Balfour, Gabe Kapler, and Randy Choate will also be eligible. The group earns about $40.4MM this year, more than half the Rays' payroll. If Wheeler departs, $43.4MM will come off the books.
Increases to players under contract check in around $7.9MM, led by Ben Zobrist. The total increase would reach $8.7MM if Aybar's option is exercised. The Rays arbitration-eligibles include Andy Sonnanstine as a first-timer and Matt Garza, B.J. Upton, and J.P. Howell as big-name second-timers. Jason Bartlett and Dioner Navarro would go for a third time, Lance Cormier a fourth. The Rays may be inclined to lock up Garza. They could potentially tack on $10MM retaining their key arbitration-eligibles.
Rays owner Stuart Sternberg said in February payroll will drop back under $60MM next year, from this year's $72.8MM range. Holding payroll steady would've given the Rays over $20MM to fill vacancies from Crawford, Pena, or Soriano, or retain one or two of them. Most of that free cash could disappear with a payroll cut, leading the Rays to turn to their deep farm system for the next wave of cheap talent.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.