Stark On Padres, Jose Guillen, Derrek Lee
ESPN's Jayson Stark kicks off today's column with a look at which teams' starts he considers reality and illusion. Beyond that, a look at his hot stove rumblings…
- One club official who "felt out" the Padres over the winter believes they'll hold on to their top players if they're in contention in July. As Stark says, the market would look a lot worse without Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell.
- Stark names six sluggers who "might be in play" this summer: Josh Hamilton, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Rick Ankiel, Paul Konerko, and Manny Ramirez. Hamilton and Manny are longer shots, but they'd certainly get the hot stove burning.
- As for Jose Guillen – executives Stark talked to just aren't interested, despite his .377/.406/.738 start.
- In search of new stadiums, where could the Rays and A's legitimately threaten to move? Stark and his sources run through ideas and can't find a viable city.
- A friend of Cal Ripken's tells Stark "there's a lot of mutual respect" between Ripken and Orioles owner Peter Angelos. Ripken seeks a difference-making job, rather than just a title. It doesn't necessarily have to be with the Orioles.
- The Cubs told Derrek Lee's agent Casey Close they'd prefer to let the season play out before talking extension. Lee discussed the situation during Spring Training.
- Stark's sources consider Brett Anderson's four-year, $12.5MM deal a very team-friendly contract. To the A's credit, most young pitchers are not willing to give two club options. Playing devil's advocate – did the potential cost savings justify committing four years to Anderson after just one year of service? You can find multiple clubs that do not share Oakland's enthusiasm for locking up good young pitchers.
Jai Miller Designated For Assignment
The Athletics designated outfielder Jai Miller for assignment, tweets John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. That's two DFAs this month for Miller, who was claimed off waivers by the A's from the Marlins on April 8th.
Miller, 25, hit .289/.360/.510 in his second Triple A stint for the Marlins last year, playing right and center field. In his brief time with the Sacramento River Cats this year, Miller had four hits, three walks, and 19 strikeouts in 37 plate appearances. Back in their '08 Handbook, Baseball America said his doubters wonder if "Miller isn't merely the next Reggie Abercrombie, a tools-laden player whose skills never fully transferred to the diamond." Two years later, they wrote that "some in the organization still see him as a late bloomer with Mike Cameron characteristics."
Free Agent Compensation All-Star Team
It can pay to lose a free agent, if the result is a well-employed draft pick or two. Using players drafted and signed as compensation picks, here's my All-Star team for drafts dating back to 2000.
- Catcher: Kelly Shoppach. Drafted by Red Sox in '01, pick from Phillies for loss of Rheal Cormier. He'll be backed up by Nick Hundley, who was drafted by the Padres in '05 on a pick from the Red Sox for the loss of David Wells. Jeff Mathis and Jarrod Saltalamacchia were also under consideration.
- First Base: Ike Davis. Drafted by Mets in '08, pick from Braves for loss of Tom Glavine. There were surprisingly few choices for my first baseman. Conor Jackson would work, though he's currently being used in left field.
- Second Base: Kelly Johnson. Drafted by Braves in '00 as a supplemental pick for loss of Jose Hernandez to Brewers.
- Shortstop: Tommy Manzella. Drafted by Astros in '05, pick from Mets for loss of Carlos Beltran. Not too many names to choose from here.
- Third Base: David Wright. Drafted by Mets in '01 as a supplemental pick for loss of Mike Hampton to the Rockies. Wright's in the running for the best compensation pick of the decade; he was drafted 38th overall.
- Left Field: Jacoby Ellsbury. Drafted by Red Sox in '05, pick from Angels for loss of Orlando Cabrera. Chris Coghlan and Conor Jackson were also under consideration.
- Center Field: Colby Rasmus. Drafted by Cardinals in '05, pick from Red Sox for loss of Edgar Renteria. Interestingly, Rasmus went five picks after Ellsbury. The Rangers' Julio Borbon is another interesting center field compensation pick.
- Right Field: Nick Swisher. Drafted by Athletics in '02, pick from Red Sox for loss of Johnny Damon. One of two Moneyball draft compensation picks to make the cut.
- Designated Hitter: Adam Lind. Drafted by Blue Jays in '04, pick from Angels for loss of Kelvim Escobar.
- Starting Pitcher: Adam Wainwright. Drafted by Braves in '00, pick from D'Backs for loss of Russ Springer.
- Starting Pitcher: Phil Hughes. Drafted by Yankees in '04, pick from Astros for loss of Andy Pettitte.
- Starting Pitcher: Joe Blanton. Drafted by A's in '02, pick from Yankees for loss of Jason Giambi.
- Starting Pitcher: Clay Buchholz. Drafted by Red Sox in '05 as a supplemental pick for the loss of Pedro Martinez to the Mets.
- Starting Pitcher: Jordan Zimmermann. Drafted by Nationals in '07, pick from Cubs for loss of Alfonso Soriano. If you think Zimmermann should be excluded since he's recovering from Tommy John surgery, consider Jeremy Bonderman, Glen Perkins, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Kennedy, and Tommy Hunter.
- Closer: Huston Street. Drafted by A's in '04 as supplemental pick for the loss of Miguel Tejada to the Orioles.
- Setup Man: J.P. Howell. Drafted by Royals in '04 as supplemental pick for the loss of Raul Ibanez to the Mariners. That was actually Howell's second time as a compensation pick. Three more who belong in our bullpen: David Aardsma, Daniel Bard, and Joba Chamberlain.
If The Diamondbacks Become Sellers
The Diamondbacks are three games back with over 90% of the season remaining, so it'd be silly to write them off. Still, let's take a look at who they might make available in trade if they're out of contention a few months from now.
Brandon Webb, coming back from shoulder surgery, isn't eligible to come off the disabled list until May 25th. Barring a setback, he should have a month's worth of big league starts before the trade deadline. If he's able to conjure up vintage Webb, he'll have plenty of suitors. But as we saw with Erik Bedard in years past, there are no guarantees he'll have trade deadline value.
Catcher Miguel Montero should return from knee surgery before the end of May. Chris Snyder could be placed on the trading block once again, if Montero shows no ill effects. For his part, Snyder has several weeks to prove himself as a healthy starting catcher. He's owed $11.25MM for 2010-11.
Adam LaRoche, Chad Qualls, Aaron Heilman, Bob Howry, Kris Benson, and Rodrigo Lopez will be eligible for free agency after the season. The D'Backs could move the majority of them if things are looking bad come July. LaRoche might fetch something useful. Augie Ojeda is under team control for 2011, but would probably be available as well.
2011 Contract Issues: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles face two contractual options after the season:
- First baseman Garrett Atkins has an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. Barring a miraculous return to his 2006 abilities, the Orioles will decline.
- Lefty reliever Mark Hendrickson has a $1.2MM club option with a $200K buyout. Much too early to call.
Paying a $500K buyout to Atkins means shaving $3.5MM off the payroll. The Orioles can free up nearly $30MM in additional funds, since Kevin Millwood, Miguel Tejada, Koji Uehara, Ty Wigginton, and others are up for free agency. They'll also trim $1.5MM in buyouts paid to Melvin Mora and Chad Moeller. The Orioles will shed $32.85MM if they let all their free agents go aside from Hendrickson.
On the increase side, there's a $3.5MM bump for Nick Markakis. The Orioles have three first-time arbitration players in Adam Jones, Jim Johnson, and Felix Pie. Jeremy Guthrie, Cla Meredith, and Matt Albers will go for a second time, Luke Scott a third. The Orioles should have at least $15MM to play with even if they hold payroll steady and tender everyone a contract.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Odds & Ends: Martinez, Rangers, Strasburg, Zambrano
Links for Wednesday…
- Daniel Barbarisi of the Providence Journal thinks that Victor Martinez's inability to contain baserunners could cost him millions in free agency and compromise his long-term future with the Red Sox.
- Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that Tom Hicks is "concerned" about the sale of the Rangers to new ownership. Hicks' comments prompted MLB to release a statement in which they say the league has taken control of the Rangers' sale.
- Despite Stephen Strasburg's hot start, Mike Rizzo has no plans to rush his prized prospect through the minors, according to Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington. Rizzo says that when Strasburg arrives in Washington, the club wants it to be for good.
- Ever seen a $17.875MM reliever? Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports that the Cubs are moving Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen on Friday. Carlos Silva will remain in the rotation; Tyler Kepner of the New York Times recently looked at his potential resurgence.
- In a pair of February articles, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune noted that Mark Buehrle's 10-and-5 rights kick in on July 6th, while A.J. Pierzynski's date is June 14th.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times posits that if the Mariners hadn't traded Adam Jones, they wouldn't have Jack Zduriencik and Franklin Gutierrez.
- Though he'll continue to work for ESPN, Joe Morgan has joined the Reds as a "special advisor to baseball operations." Morgan will not be involved in the team's day-to-day operations, learned John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick says the Diamondbacks looked into a trade for Nate Robertson before the southpaw was dealt to Florida. Crasnick's article deals with the performances of nine important fill-ins so far this season.
- FanGraphs has added an aspect of catcher defense to its Wins Above Replacement stat.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports talks about the plight of Dodgers pitcher Chad Billingsley. I imagine quite a few teams would like to try to get him back on track.
- Kevin Millar, released by the Cubs in March, has joined the MLB Network as an analyst according to Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball.
If The Cubs Become Sellers
At 5-9, the Cubs have fallen to four games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central. With over 90% of the season remaining, they've got plenty of time to right the ship. Still, let's take a look at who might be available if they don't.
If the Cubs decide to punt on the 2010 season at some point, I don't think it'd be a full-blown rebuild. Well-paid righties Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster should be part of the 2011 rotation (though Z is headed for the 'pen on Friday), and I'd be surprised to see either traded. Aramis Ramirez has said he'll think about his '11 player option after the season; I don't see a midseason trade happening.
Right fielder Kosuke Fukudome could be shopped; we learned earlier this month that the Cubs and Nationals discussed a trade. With $26.5MM owed to him over 2010-11, the Cubs would have to eat salary or take a contract back.
Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly are free agents after the season. If the Cubs want to re-sign them, they're likely to stay put this summer regardless of the team's record. Otherwise, Lee and Lilly could draw solid returns on the trade market (assuming Lilly comes back strong from a shoulder procedure). Although both players stand a good chance of achieving Type A status, arbitration offers are not certain.
Most likely, the Cubs would move smaller pieces if they fall out of the race: Xavier Nady and Chad Tracy are on one-year deals.
Orioles Claim Pedro Viola
The Orioles claimed lefty Pedro Viola off waivers from the Reds today, according to a team press release. Viola was assigned to Triple A, and Felix Pie was transferred to the 60-day DL to make room on the 40-man roster.
Viola, 26, posted a 5.47 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 6.0 BB/9 in 49.3 Triple A relief innings last year, allowing seven home runs. In their 2010 Handbook, Baseball America praised Viola for a 92-94 mph fastball. However, they describe his changeup and slider as fringy and note his inconsistent command. Viola will be a project for Tides pitching coach Mike Griffin.
Heyman, Rosenthal On Cubs, Rays, Giants
SI's Jon Heyman and FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal posted new columns this morning. A few hot stove highlights…
- Heyman received indications that Tom Gorzelanny will remain in the Cubs' rotation when Ted Lilly returns Saturday. That would mean Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, or Carlos Silva heads to the bullpen. Given his past experience in the Cubs' pen, Heyman finds Dempster the most logical choice. I respectfully disagree, as Dempster is the Cubs' best starter. I'd make Silva the long man and continue to scour the trade and free agent markets for relief help. Promoting Andrew Cashner merits consideration, if the Cubs don't think a temporary move back to relief would stunt his development. UPDATE: Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune tweets that Zambrano will go to the pen.
- Rosenthal finds a Rays sell-off unlikely, instead envisioning them as bullpen buyers. He notes that the Rays have attempted to trade for various star players the last two Julys.
- Rosenthal believes the Giants' biggest need is "a strong two-way threat in right field." He says potentially available players like David DeJesus and Corey Hart don't quite fit the mold. I'm just throwing it out there…could Elijah Dukes be a fit?
Starting Pitching Trade Candidates
As usual, starting pitching questions abound for many teams. The Dodgers, for example, have to be concerned about the majority of their rotation. Here's a look at starting pitchers who may be available a few months from now.
- The Orioles are already nine games out. Kevin Millwood has a brilliant K/BB ratio so far, and may prove an unnecessary luxury for the O's. Jeremy Guthrie is more interesting, since he's under team control through 2012. The question is how comfortable the Orioles would be downgrading their rotation in the short-term.
- We touched on the White Sox yesterday. Freddy Garcia could potentially be available this summer, or earlier if the Sox remain in contention but prefer Dan Hudson as the fifth starter.
- The Rays could probably spare Andy Sonnanstine now. He'll move further down their depth chart once Jeremy Hellickson is deemed ready.
- The Royals' Gil Meche would have to prove he's healthy before a deal could occur. Brian Bannister, under team control through '12, is more attractive. There's no real reason for the Royals to move him, though.
- The Indians' Jake Westbrook is still shaking off the rust of Tommy John surgery. The Tribe probably wouldn't mind shedding some of his $11MM salary.
- The Mariners' Ian Snell could be expendable if Doug Fister and Jason Vargas continue to perform well.
- Like the Orioles, the Pirates probably prefer not to weaken their rotation further. GM Neal Huntington does hold two attractive pieces in Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, though.
- The Reds have a pair of well-paid veteran starters in Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. Harang is basically owed $15MM if traded, so he'd need to go on a strong run to be marketable.
- The Padres are enjoying a first-place tie, but they do have three veteran starters in contract years: Jon Garland, Kevin Correia, and Chris Young.
- Teams looking for aces have to hope the Mariners, Rockies, Cubs, Athletics, Astros, or Diamondbacks fall out of contention. That might make Cliff Lee, Jorge de la Rosa, Ted Lilly, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt, and Brandon Webb available as rentals. Wandy Rodriguez, under team control through '11, could be a hot commodity if the Astros commit to a rebuild (which would admittedly be out of character). On a related note, WFAN's Mike Francesa says the Mets "have been sniffing around" Oswalt, and the Astros are listening for the first time. However, ESPN's Adam Rubin has a source who believes the Mets have no chance at Oswalt.