Astros Fire Cecil Cooper
The Astros announced the firing of manager Cecil Cooper today. They'll go with Dave Clark to finish out the season. Back in April, the Astros picked up Cooper's 2010 option, but it didn't mean much. The firing rumors have been floating for months; the Astros currently sport a 70-79 record.
Don’t Expect Big Changes In Cincinnati
John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer talked to Reds GM Walt Jocketty, who implied a quiet offseason lies ahead.
- Jocketty said, "I wouldn't think so" when asked if the Reds will be big players in free agency.
- The team is likely to stay internal for improvements at center field, shortstop, and catcher, with Drew Stubbs, Paul Janish, and Ryan Hanigan. Jocketty admitted catcher Ramon Hernandez's $8.5MM is "a pretty big option." Keep in mind that the Reds have a stellar defensive infield, and their offense will benefit from more Jay Bruce and less Willy Taveras.
- Jocketty wants a "quality RBI man," but he doesn't know where that player would fit. Logically, the Reds figure to tender a contract to Jonny Gomes to be their left fielder next year. Still, don't count out Jocketty making a creative trade for his coveted bat.
Benching Costs Orlando Hudson
Talking to Jim Peltz of the L.A. Times, Dodgers manager Joe Torre would not commit to Ronnie Belliard over Orlando Hudson as the team's starting second baseman. Belliard has started at second base in eight of the team's 18 games this month, as well as a few times at third.
Hudson stands to lose money as a bench player, though he was gracious in comments made to Peltz. The way his contract is set up, Hudson is currently earning $10,000 per plate appearance up until his 632nd. He's already earned $7.63MM on the season, despite a base salary of $3.38MM.
The larger effect of the benching may be on Hudson's next contract. He faces strong competition among free agent second basemen, and will have a hard time topping this year's salary.
Free Agent Market: Designated Hitters
Supply always exceeds demand in the market for designated hitters, since only 14 such jobs exist. Well-paid declining sluggers David Ortiz, Pat Burrell, and Travis Hafner seemingly have locks on three of those 14 spots for 2010. Three more will disappear if Mike Jacobs, Adam Lind, and Jason Kubel maintain their principal '09 roles. Plus, certain teams prefer to keep the DH spot open to give aging players a break. If the free agent hitters below can't muster up tolerable first base/left field defense and good health to match, they may be limited to eight or fewer open American League DH spots.
- Hideki Matsui leads DHs with a .369 OBP. Jim Thome is next at .367. Gary Sheffield is up there at .369, and he even managed 501 innings in the outfield this year. Manny Ramirez, should he decline his $20MM player option, might be best-served bringing his .422 OBP to the DH market.
- Manny would be the SLG leader at .559. Then we have Russell Branyan at .520, though he spent most of his time at first base in 2009. Next is Matsui at .515, Thome at .484, Vladimir Guerrero at .472, and Hank Blalock at .469. Aubrey Huff spent most of last season at DH and posted a .552 SLG.
- Carlos Delgado would be a wild card if the 37-year-old decides to make the transition from first base to DH. He hit .298/.393/.521 in 112 plate appearances for the Mets before going down for hip surgery.
- Vlad and Manny project as Type A free agents. Matsui, Huff, and Delgado project as Type Bs. Manny is the only Scott Boras client in the group.
- We have not been trying to predict non-tendered players or trade candidates in these free agent market discussions. But keep in mind that Jacobs, Jack Cust, and Milton Bradley may also be in the mix.
- Teams hold a clear advantage over those vying for DH jobs, so low-risk one-year deals should be the norm. Guerrero, an intriguing option after missing much of '09 with a torn pectoral muscle, could sign for two years or one year with an option.
Jack Cust Hopes To Return To Athletics
September is lean for rumors, hence the "player hopes to return next year" articles we're seeing on a daily basis. Next up: Jack Cust of the Athletics. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle talked to Cust, who wants to return in 2010 but knows the A's might have other ideas for their DH and outfield corner spots. Assistant GM David Forst was noncommittal:
"We know what Jack can do. That doesn't mean Jack is not in our plans."
Cust, 31 in January, is hitting .237/.356/.407 in 565 plate appearances this year, marking a three-year decline in his walk rate/OBP and SLG. He earned $2.8MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. It probably does not make sense for the A's to pay him $3MM+ next year, so he is a candidate to be non-tendered. That'd allow Cust to explore Major League free agency with only four years of service time.
The free agent market has potential DHs in Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, Jim Thome, and Vladimir Guerrero. At the least, three of the remaining 14 DH jobs are tied up with Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, and Pat Burrell. Mike Jacobs, Adam Lind, and Jason Kubel all spent significant time at DH for their respective teams as well.
Discussion: Milton Bradley For Oliver Perez
There is no indication the Cubs and Mets have discussed swapping disappointing free agent signings Milton Bradley and Oliver Perez. It makes for interesting discussion, however. Joel Sherman of the New York Post even wonders if an expanded deal could include Carlos Zambrano or Luis Castillo.
Bradley's power disappeared this year en route to a .257/.378/.397 line in 473 plate appearances. He adapted poorly to Chicago, his season ending with a team-mandated suspension for his negative comments. Would New York be any easier? The switch-hitting Bradley turns 32 in April and has $21MM remaining on his contract.
Perez's already-lousy control worsened to a ridiculous 7.9 walks per nine innings in his 14 starts this year. He still piled up strikeouts, but home runs and hits were a problem as well. His 28.3% groundball rate was among the lowest in baseball. Perez arrived at Spring Training from the WBC out of shape, and was booted to the bullpen in May. He dealt with a knee problem thereafter and had season-ending surgery in August. The 28-year-old Scott Boras client has $24MM remaining on his contract.
Perez for Bradley – who says no?
Aroldis Chapman Establishes Residency In Andorra
21 year-old Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman established residency in the small European country of Andorra, according to SI's Melissa Segura. One benefit of that country: no income tax. The 21-year-old hard-throwing southpaw had his passport, so it wasn't a difficult process. Chapman could be declared a Major League free agent before the playoffs begin next month.
Segura's sources expect teams "like the Red Sox and Yankees" to pursue Chapman, though she talked to one scouting director who projects him as a middle reliever. Read Keith Law's ESPN scouting report here. Segura believes Chapman will exceed the $32MM a 31-year-old Jose Contreras received seven years ago. ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. suggested the $40MM-100MM range. It's been said that all 30 teams have some degree of interest, though the Yankees, Orioles, and Angels have been specifically connected. Chapman is represented by Edwin Leonel Mejia.
Pirates Eyeing Rick Ankiel, Possibly John Grabow
The Pirates have money to spend in free agency and a desire to be more aggressive than last year, GM Neal Huntington told Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Huntington admitted that former Pirates may be of interest, leading Kovacevic to speculate that lefty reliever John Grabow could be a target. Kovacevic also learned that outfielder Rick Ankiel is on the Pirates' radar.
A few weeks ago, we discovered that the Pirates will have less than $30MM committed heading into 2010 after beginning this season with a $48.7MM payroll.
Grabow may re-sign with the Cubs before reaching free agency. But if not, it's pointless for a team like the Pirates to spend even a few million on a walk-happy 32-year-old lefty reliever. The situation would only be compounded if the Cubs offer arbitration to Grabow, who projects as a Type A free agent.
Kovacevic suggests Ankiel's "superb athleticism is a potentially fine fit for PNC Park's spacious left field," and I agree. It's been a brutal year (.234/.286/.390), but Ankiel has suffered through groin and shoulder injuries. He'd be intriguing on a one-year deal in the $3MM range. Plus, such a signing would prove the Pirates can deal with Scott Boras despite last year's Pedro Alvarez drama (Chris Bootcheck's minor league deal notwithstanding).
Elias Rankings Update
At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats. Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league. The rankings cover a two-year time period. They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither. If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.
Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through September 18th, 2009. The rankings will change over the remainder of the season. Keep in mind that if players change leagues, they are ranked in their new league.
Click here to see the latest Elias Rankings.
New developments: Jermaine Dye dropped from Type A to B, Jack Wilson from B to none, Jarrod Washburn from B to none, Octavio Dotel from B to A, Gary Sheffield from B to none, Ronnie Belliard from none to B, David Eckstein from B to none, and Adam LaRoche from none to B.
Offseason Outlook: New York Mets
SATURDAY: Several readers have pointed out a major error in the original post. The Mets did not enter the '09 season at $149.4MM, but rather something closer to $139.6MM. Assuming a steady payroll, they would have $25-30MM to spend. They'll have to skimp on some of the needs listed, unless Omar Minaya can swing a clever trade or two.
THURSDAY: Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Mets. Their commitments for 2010:
C – Omir Santos – $400K
C – Josh Thole – $400K
1B – Daniel Murphy – $401K
2B – Luis Castillo – $6MM
SS – Jose Reyes – $9MM
3B – David Wright – $10MM
IF – Anderson Hernandez – $400K
LF – Angel Pagan – $575K+
CF – Carlos Beltran – $18.5MM
RF – Jeff Francoeur – $3.375MM+
OF – Cory Sullivan – $600K+
OF – Jeremy Reed – $925K+
1B/LF – Nick Evans – $403K or OF – Fernando Martinez – $400K
SP – Johan Santana – $21MM
SP – John Maine – $2.6MM+
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.3125MM
SP – Oliver Perez – $12MM
SP – Jon Niese – $400K
Other candidates: Fernando Nieve – $414K, Tim Redding – $2.25MM+
RP – Francisco Rodriguez – $11.5MM
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $1.6125MM+
RP – Sean Green – $471K+
RP – Pat Misch – $402K
RP – Bobby Parnell – $400K
RP – Brian Stokes – $410K
RP – Carlos Muniz – $402K
Other commitments: J.J. Putz – $1MM buyout
Non-tender candidates: Redding, Maine, Nelson Figueroa
That puts the Mets at about $105MM, plus arbitration raises to Pagan, Francoeur, Sullivan, Reed, Maine, Feliciano, Green, and Redding (some of whom will likely be non-tendered). The Mets are in the $110MM ballpark after entering the '09 season with a $149.4MM payroll. Omar Minaya should have $35-40MM to patch his team's many holes.
The Mets have a strong core of superstars, and their collective health almost has to improve in 2010. I don't see the logic behind trading Reyes, Wright, Beltran, or Santana.
The Mets need a catcher, first baseman, and corner outfielder. They may be competing with the Braves for certain first base and left field candidates. But the Mets also need at least one solid starting pitcher as well as bullpen help.
The catching market is weak, but pairing someone like Gregg Zaun with Thole makes sense. First base presents more options. Who's a bigger health risk – Carlos Delgado at 38 or Nick Johnson at 31? Johnson's .428 OBP is hard to ignore.
The market is flush with left fielders. With so many needs, I have a hard time seeing Minaya take a run at Manny Ramirez, Matt Holliday, or Jason Bay. Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, and Jermaine Dye are more reasonable targets. With Castillo, Johnson, Wright, Beltran, and Abreu, the Mets would potentially have five .400 OBP players. Zaun (assuming the Rays let him go), Johnson, and Abreu could be signed for less than $25MM in 2010 salaries.
With the remaining money I'd attempt to lure Randy Wolf from the West Coast while also pursuing Erik Bedard, Brad Penny, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, or Ben Sheets for a one-year deal. Admittedly there wouldn't be much left to spend on relievers, but decent arms can be found for a million or two.
Certainly the Mets could use top free agents like Holliday and John Lackey. However, the available money would be better used to acquire four or five sensible free agents. Let's hear your recommendations in the comments.