Orioles Rumors

It's hard to predict just how much payroll space the Orioles have to play with this offseason given their long list of arbitration-eligible players.  Even without counting their three non-tender candidates, MLBTR's Matt Swartz projects the eight remaining arb-eligible players to receive $41.2MM.  That amount plus the payroll already committed for 2014 adds up to $86.6MM for 14 players.  While the O's are fortunate to have such key players as Tillman and Manny Machado still on their pre-arb contracts, they could still end up spending $100MM-$110MM essentially to bring back last year's roster.

The financial situation further shift if Chris Davis and Matt Wieters are signed to multiyear extensions.  Talks with Wieters and agent Scott Boras went nowhere last offseason and we've heard that some in the O's organization feel Wieters will definitely test the open market following the 2015 season.  While Wieters had a big drop in production last season, the argument can still be made that the Orioles should lock him up in case he makes the leap next year.  Davis is a much more intriguing case following his monster 2013 campaign.  The first baseman says he wants to stay but he's also a Boras client, so Baltimore isn't likely to get a bargain if they do explore a longer-term deal.

While pitching is the Orioles' biggest concern, they have a few holes around the diamond as well, though third base probably won't be one provided that Machado's knee injury heals as projected.  Even if Machado misses the maximum six months and doesn't return until late April, a platoon of Danny Valencia and Ryan Flaherty should be enough to keep things steady at third until Machado is fit.

Flaherty is also in the mix at second, though Baltimore will be hoping to get much more production out of the keystone position and is looking for a solid everyday option.  The 77 games Brian Roberts played in 2013 was his highest total in the last four years, so while it's possible the Orioles could bring him back on a one-year deal as a depth option, they simply can't rely on the 36-year-old as a regular.  Jonathan Schoop got a cup of coffee in the bigs last September but with just 289 Triple-A plate appearances to his credit, Schoop may need more seasoning before the Orioles can confidently hand him the second base job.

Since Schoop is waiting in the wings as the possible 2B of the future, the Orioles could just re-sign Roberts and then pursue another veteran on a short-term contract to make do at second for 2014.  Or, they could take care of the position for at least two years by trading for the Angels' Howie Kendrick, who has been suggested as a possible trade target for Baltimore.  Kendrick is owed a reasonable $18.85MM through 2015 and could be a very solid bridge until Schoop is ready.  This is just speculation on my part, but the O's match up well as a trade partner for the pitching-needy Angels since the Halos are a team that would be interested in slightly-tarnished but promising young arms like Matusz or Britton as part of a package for Kendrick.

Nate McLouth projects to fetch a two-year, $10MM commitment as a free agent, according to Dierkes, which could be a bit much for the Orioles given that McLouth struggles against lefty pitching and would require a platoon partner in left field.  Mike Morse only posted a .237 OPS in 12 games as an Oriole and isn't expected to be re-signed by the club, even if he makes sense as a right-handed hitting side of a DH platoon.  Henry Urrutia's first pro season saw him post a .983 OPS in Double-A (224 PA), a .788 OPS in Triple-A (123 PA) and a .586 OPS in 58 PA at the Major League level.

Urrutia is the only left field option on the roster, so expect the O's to acquire either an everyday left fielder or designated hitter, with Urrutia and a right-handed hitting batter filling the other spot.  Valencia hit well as a DH in 2013 and could be that righty bat, or it could be Nolan Reimold; the Orioles are expected to non-tender Reimold and then try to re-sign him to an incentives-laden contract.  There are enough platoon options here that the O's could save money by just signing a low-level veteran or two to fill out the roster as part-timers.

Right field could be an offseason focus for the Orioles.  Nick Markakis suffered the worst season of his eight-year career, hitting only .271/.329/.356 with 10 homers in 700 PA and posting a negative (-0.1) WAR according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.  Markakis could be on the decline and while he's still penciled in as Baltimore's everyday right fielder, he's headed into the last year of his contract and is owed $17MM ($15MM in salary, plus $2MM for the O's to buy out his $17.5MM option for 2015).  The Orioles would definitely eat some money in a Markakis trade but it might be worth it to free up a bit of extra payroll space if he's no longer a reliable option.

A dominant bullpen was a big part of the Orioles' success in 2012 but the relief corps was mostly average last year, finishing with a 3.52 ERA that ranked 15th in the majors.  Jim Johnson's peripherals took a step back but the closer still finished the year with 50 games, a 2.94 ERA and a 3.11 K/BB rate.  Duquette has already said that the stopper will be tendered a contract, though if the Orioles have payroll parameters in mind, you'd think they'd explore trading a closer making $10.8MM per year.  The O's can solidify their bullpen with some of the aforementioned young starting candidates like McFarland, or keeping the likes of Matusz and Hunter in their current relief roles.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Baltimore add one more veteran reliever to fill the void left by the departing Francisco Rodriguez.

Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun recently opined that since the current Orioles roster has proven they can win, the onus is now on management to raise payroll and take the necessary final steps necessary to make this team a true contender.  Platoons and internal options are fine, but it's hard to argue that the O's wouldn't be better off improving their rotation or team OBP simply by signing, say, Matt Garza or Shin-Soo Choo.  I don't see Baltimore being a big player in free agency since they wouldn't want to surrender their unprotected first-round draft pick, but taking on a big salary or two via trade wouldn't be out of the question if the O's were willing to up the payroll.

The good news for Orioles fans is that their club looks to have a solid enough core in place that nobody is worrying about the bottom falling out for the O's anymore.  Even in the tough AL East, it seems like Baltimore has enough quality pieces to be competitive, though some work still needs to be done to make this roster into something special.