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Red Sox Pursuing Javy Lopez

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Newspapers from both Boston and Baltimore are confirming that the Red Sox have contacted the Orioles about catcher Javy Lopez.  The 35 year-old Lopez has only caught twenty games this season, but he could certainly provide acceptable offense for the rest of the month until Jason Varitek comes back.

The Boston Herald indicates that Lopez could clear waivers today.  A source tells me that the Red Sox may part with 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez.  Alvarez is the guy who wears his hat crooked to compensate for being legally blind in one eye.  He’s proven quite hittable in Triple A this year.  Back in June, the Red Sox offered Alvarez for Ryan Shealy.  Alvarez seems to get mentioned in a lot of trade rumors.

The Yankees wouldn’t be able to block a claim of Lopez, as they have a slight lead in the standings today.  It’s hard to picture another American League team blocking the claim, but you never know.  Should Lopez fall through, here are some other options the Red Sox might consider.  Among those, a couple of Philly papers have already indicated that the Sox aren’t interested in Mike Lieberthal.   

Tejada Off The Market

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Ken Rosenthal has taken Jayson Stark’s 5% chance of Miguel Tejada being traded and one-upped that by indicating that Tejada is off the trade market entirely.

The Orioles had various offers floating about, but Peter Angelos ultimately did not see one he liked.  We’ll never be positive that the Angels really offered Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar.  But if they did, the Orioles may have made a mistake by passing.

Roy Oswalt’s Name Enters The Fray

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Here’s a new one: could Roy Oswalt be traded in the next 18 hours?

According to the Baltimore Sun:

"Several industry sources confirmed the Orioles and Astros are negotiating dealing Tejada for third baseman Morgan Ensberg, shortstop Adam Everett and Oswalt, 28, who has already won 91 major-league games."

The O’s have said they are looking for established Major Leaguers in return for their superstar shortstop, and Oswalt fits the bill.  Baltimore would have to have competitive designs for the 2007 season, as Oswalt is a free agent after that.

According to Value Over Replacement Player, Oswalt has been the fourth best pitcher in the league this season.  Last year he ranked fifth in VORP.  It’s tough to see how the Astros would win this year with no dependable starters behind Roger Clemens.  Perhaps a Rodrigo Lopez type pitcher would come to Houston in the unlikely event Oswalt is dealt. 

Miguel Tejada Trade Update

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Next up, Miggy.  Tejada got cold feet yesterday, saying that he wanted to stay in Baltimore and didn’t want to move to third base.

Also, the Orioles have rejected the offer of Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. Seems foolish.  According to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun:

"If the Angels added another prospect to their package of Santana and Aybar, like possibly first base prospect Casey Kotchman, the trade could be completed. It is believed that the Angels’ top two offensive prospects – Double-A shortstop Brandon Wood and second baseman Howie Kendrick – are not available."

Angelos!  We are talking about a young, established, effective starter in Santana.  Don’t let this one slip away.  Jorge Arangure Jr. of the Washington Post adds Nick Adenhart’s name to the mix as the possible third player coming from L.A.  My Angels source had named Adenhart as an untouchable player back on July 13th.

The Astros came in with a fairly weak offer of Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, and Fernando Nieve, as Will Carroll mentioned yesterday.  Zrebiec tells us that Baltimore turned this one down but is still talking with Tim Purpura.  Zrebiec calls Houston one of the favorites at this point.

The Rangers are in the game with Hank Blalock and prospects available, which would create a logjam at third for the Orioles.  The Dodgers are offering Cesar Izturis and prospects, and Rafael Furcal’s name has come up as well.

Rosenthal: Angels, Astros Make Tejada Offers

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Ken Rosenthal’s got the scoop on a sweet offer made to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada: starter Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar.

The Orioles, characteristically an indecisive team, need to pounce on this offer.  Baltimore will not be ready to compete in the AL East for several years, and prime young pitching isn’t offered up every day.  Put Santana under Leo Mazzone’s tutelage and he could blossom into a true ace.  And Aybar, while overshadowed by the Halos’ other infield prospects, looks to be an above average regular for many years.  Not surprising to see Aybar used as a trading chip, but I didn’t expect the Angels to offer up Santana.

As far as the Astros, Rosenthal just states that "prime Major League pieces" were offered.  He also mentions the Tigers and Dodgers as players.

Carroll On Tejada-Astros Discussions

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Baseball Prospectus author Will Carroll has opened up Will’s Mill for the weekend, and he’ll be burning up the phone lines fishing for all sorts of good trade rumors.

Today he mentions an offer Tim Purpura has given to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada: Adam Everett, Morgan Ensberg, and Fernando Nieve.  According to Carroll, Tim Purpura is focused on Tejada and is being urged by Roger Clemens to go get him.

In Everett, the Orioles would be acquiring the game’s best defensive shortstop.  His hitting, at .241/.300/.327 this year, lags far behind the average AL shortstop.  The average AL shortstop is hitting .286/.342/.423, similar to the work of Eric Chavez or A.J. Pierzysnki this year.

On the 10th of June, Ensberg bruised his shoulder diving for a foul ball.  He was hitting .256/.380/.562 at that point, though he hadn’t done much in May or June.  In Ensberg’s 18 games after the shoulder bruise, he hit just .158/.422/.263.  He drew plenty of walks but the power that resulted in 36 HR last year had vanished.  Ensberg took live batting practice yesterday for the first time since being placed on the DL on July 10th. 

Nieve, 24, has a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider.  He was just sent down to Triple A a week ago because of Brandon Backe, but had been demoted to the bullpen upon Roger Clemens’s return in late June.  It’s just a 15 inning sample, but Nieve did pretty well as a reliever: 8.2 K/9, 2.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.  As a starter he had a 5.6 K/9, 4.67 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP.  It is a fact that many pitchers add several miles per hour to their fastball by switching to relief, and Nieve’s two plus pitches make it easy to envision him as a future closer or top set-up man. 

Astros Talking About Miguel Tejada

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MLBTradeRumors has learned that the Astros are in talks with Baltimore for Miguel Tejada.  I don’t have much more detail than that, but it comes from a trusted source.  Houston has been reluctant to offer up outfielder Hunter Pence, who currently has 22 home runs in Double A.  It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out.  The Astros previously expressed interest back in January.

A couple more tasty Tejada nuggets: The Reds kicked the tires on the superstar shortstop, but a deal couldn’t be completed without including stud pitcher Homer Bailey.  In my opinion, if the Reds are really going for the gold this year, they should’ve pulled the trigger.  Also, the reason the Angels are resisting a Tejada deal: Mike Scioscia.  Scioscia doesn’t want Tejada bringing his…influence…into the clubhouse.

Rumor Roundup

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Another day, another rumor roundup.  Let’s throw everything fresh into the mill.

The Orioles are thinking about taking on one of Philly’s huge outfielder contracts, for some reason.  I guess this could help next year’s push for third place.  Baltimore is one of baseball’s most baffling teams to me.  Abreu rumors have been floating around the Orioles since at least November.

The Cubs and Yankees may have something cooking, with Scott Williamson the likely candidate to be dealt.  If the reliever market is really so inflated, why don’t the Cubs trade Howry and Eyre?

The Pirates are offering up all sorts of non-difference makers, but Mike Gonzalez could actually get them something decent.  The 28 year-old southpaw has a 2.27 ERA in 39 innings this season.  Fantay leaguers should start thinking about Matt Capps as his successor.

Trade rumor All-Star Ken Rosenthal is getting into the game more lately, with a full plate of whisperings posted an hour ago.  Jose Vidro could become a Giant, and the D’Backs would love to trade Shawn Green (of course).

Unfounded rumors: Billy Beane may be shopping Mark Ellis and Jason Windsor, with possible interest in Brian Roberts…the Angels could be after David Dellucci…teams are calling the Mets about Alay Soler…Dallas McPherson is definitely on the block…there’s a decent chance Jon Lieber ends up a Yankee…the Mets and Nats are still talking about Livan Hernandez.

Lining Up For Shealy

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It might be helpful to summarize all the Ryan Shealy suitors from the last few months, just so we can keep them straight.  These are all from various newspapers. 

The most recent one is that the Red Sox offered 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez.  Alvarez posted a 4.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP in Triple A last year. This season, he’s at 4.46 with a 1.36 WHIP.  He’s had little opportunity to prove himself in Boston.  Random bio: Alvarez likes to wear his hat crooked, is legally blind in one eye, and is known for pinpoint control.  Actually, those first two facts aren’t so random – Alvarez wears his hat that way to balance the lighting for that eye.  Sounds like a good kid who has overcome quite a bit of adversity, but the Rockies are looking for more.

Then there’s the Orioles.  Baltimore has little in the way of first basemen waiting in the wings, but they balked at the Rockies’ request for Hayden Penn.  It’s said the team would prefer to deal Javy Lopez, but they’ve been trying to do that for ages.  The Rockies could use a decent catcher for their unlikely pennant run, and Lopez is hitting .282/.329/.437 this season at 35.  That’s not particularly young for a backstop, and Lopez has only caught 12 games this season out of 56 played.  He’d make an interesting addition to a lot of teams, but at $8.5MM this will probably just be a salary dump. The O’s will have to surrender a young player to get Shealy.  Adam Loewen seems like too high a price, but I am not an expert in the Orioles’ farm system. 

It’s been noted that the Blue Jays are interested, so a third AL East team is in the mix.  The Jays already have Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske clogging up the DH spot, so something would have to give before they acquired Shealy.  Toronto doesn’t have much in the way of Triple A starters who could be swapped with the Rox.

The Cubs poked around in May with their first base vacancy (albeit two weeks later than they should have).  Recent word is that Cubs offered reliever David Aardsma.  Besides having the first name in the baseball encyclopedia, Aardsma has 20 solid Triple A innings to his credit.  He hasn’t shown much in the Majors this season.  The persistent walk problem remains.  Assuming Shealy was healthy enough to play left field, the Cubs should step up their offer to at least Rich Hill.

One of the papers mentioned that the Indians inquired within the last year, but there’s no longer a fit.  Ryan Garko is not setting the world afire at Buffalo, nor is Ryan Mulhern at Double A.  Michael Aubrey has been on the DL with a knee injury since late May.  So I’m thinking the Indians would still like to acquire Shealy, but maybe the Rockies were asking for too much.

Shealy is doing well in Colorado Springs (though of course in a hitters’ environment).  He’s at .284/.357/.593 after 43 games.

El Duque Swapped For Julio

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In a surprising move, the Diamondbacks sent starter Orlando Hernandez to the Mets for reliever Jorge Julio.  El Duque, age 36-40ish, has a 6.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through his first nine starts this year.  27 year-old righty Julio had a 5.06 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the Mets.

Hernandez will be paid $4.5MM this season and doesn’t figure to pick up his incentives for Comeback Player of the Year or an All-Star Game.  Julio makes about $2.5MM and has yet to reach free agency.  Hernandez was projected to add about 1.8 wins in 122 innings while Julio’s projection called for 1.5 wins in 58 innings (3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).

Perhaps D’Backs pitching coach Bryan Price thinks he can limit Julio’s largest flaw, his tendency to allow home runs.  He’d better figure something out because Chase Field boosts homers for lefties by 18% (Shea suppressed them by 6%).  The only silver lining in Julio’s 2006 performance is that he’s managed to whiff 33 hitters in just over 21 innings.  The 13.92 K/9 is the best in the game among pitchers with 20 innings.

El Duque had three quality starts in nine tries for Arizona.  Last year for the White Sox, 45% of his starts were quality efforts.  While he’s an improvement over Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez, the difference may be marginal.  PECOTA projected Gonzalez at a 5.71 ERA, Lima at 5.21, and Hernandez at 5.17.  Who knows, though, maybe El Duque will rise to the occasion on the big stage and give the Mets 100 innings of league average ball.  And of course he could be an asset should the Mets make the playoffs.

I can see the reasoning here for both sides.  The Mets fill their starter vacancy at a low cost and value Hernandez higher than most teams.  El Duque loves New York and Minaya loves El Duque.  Minaya scouted Hernandez and considers him a warrior.  On the other hand, the D’Backs get a reliever who still at least has potential to be dominant.  Julio is under contract for a couple more years and adds depth to an already decent Arizona pen.  Perhaps Josh Byrnes thought Hernandez’s value would only continue to decrease as the season wore on.

It will be interesting to see if the Mets continue their pursuit of Orlando’s half-brother, Livan Hernandez.

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