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Red Sox May Not Go Far Past $100MM For Ellsbury

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There appears to be mutual interest between the Red Sox and Jacoby Ellsbury in a new contract this winter, though the Red Sox may balk at re-signing the center fielder if the bidding goes far past the $100MM mark, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports.  Boston's return to prominence this season has been built around signing "mid-range" free agents like Shane Victorino or Mike Napoli and the team may wish to continue this strategy rather than splurge on a major free agent contract.  Sources connected to the team tell Heyman they "aren't necessarily optimistic" that the Sox will be keen on handing Ellsbury a Carl Crawford-esque deal.

Crawford's contract (a seven-year, $142MM pact in December 2010) was cited by Scott Boras, Ellsbury's agent, as perhaps not being large enough for his client since Ellsbury plays center field, has experience hitting leadoff and also has had success playing in Boston.  Boras, as you might expect, used a colorful metaphor to describe his feelings about Ellsbury as a franchise cornerstone and about the "mid-range" free agent signing strategy. 

“Free agency is like the Navy. You can have a number of mid-range missiles, but they only work as long as you have the aircraft carrier to put them on.”

I used the Crawford deal as a comparison myself when I examined Ellsbury as a possible extension candidate back in March 2012.  At the time Ellsbury was coming off the best season of his career — a .321/.376/.552 slash line, 32 homers, 39 steals, 119 runs scored and a league-leading 364 total bases.  Since then, Ellsbury has hit .287/.340/.403 with just 12 homers over 941 PA, though his 2012 season was limited to only 74 games due to injury. 

My proposal at the time was a seven-year, $133MM deal between Ellsbury and the Red Sox that would have covered Ellsbury's 2013 season and his first six free agent years.  Ellsbury hasn't kept up the power since then and he turns 30 years old next week.  As we saw with Michael Bourn (another Boras client) last offseason, teams are hesitant to give major deals to speed-centric players entering their thirties.

Some executives tell Heyman that Ellsbury could be in line for a five-year/$75MM deal like B.J. Upton while others think the Boston outfielder will indeed crack the $100MM mark.  My guess is that Ellsbury seems like a lock for a $100MM+ contract on the open market this offseason due to both his talents and because this winter's free agent outfielder market is rather slim.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has had Ellsbury rated no lower than third throughout his 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings since the season began, and Ellsbury has claimed the No. 2 position (behind only Robinson Cano) for the last two months.

Red Sox owner John Henry reportedly "very much likes Ellsbury," though the team kept Jackie Bradley Jr. at the trade deadline as insurance should Ellsbury left in free agency  There should be strong interest in Ellsbury on the open market; Fangraphs' Paul Swydan recently noted that up to 12 teams could vie for Ellsbury's services.

Cubs Claim Daniel Bard, Designate Cole Gillespie

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The Cubs announced that they have claimed Daniel Bard off waivers from the Red Sox.  To make room for the reliever, outfielder Cole Gillespie has been designated for assignment.

The former top-100 prospect was designated for assignment on Sunday.  Bard, 28, emerged as a dominant late-inning reliever in 2010, but didn't respond well when the team attempted to convert him back into a starter in 2012.  He's been beset by injuries this season and walked 27 batters in 15 1/3 minor league innings.  

Bard will be arbitration eligible for a third time this winter and still has an option remaining.  However, because he's only accumulated four days of Major League service time in 2013, he is now controllable through at least the 2016 season instead of the 2015 season, as previously projected.  If Bard can rediscover his 2009-11 form, he could be a rare example of a player who is eligible for arbitration five times.  In fact, if Bard accumulates fewer than 94 days of service time between now and the end of the 2014 season, the Cubs would gain another year of team control, giving them rights to Bard through the 2017 campaign.  In that scenario, Bard would be eligible for arbitration six times.  Baseball's collective bargaining agreement states that a player is eligible for arbitration so long as he has between three and six years of Major League service time (or qualifies as a Super Two) and is on a 40-man roster, so theoretically, a player could be eligible an infinite number of times.  Of course, all of this assumes that Bard will be tendered a contract for the 2014 season, which is certainly not a guarantee given his 2013 performance.

Gillespie, 29, was claimed off waivers from the Giants in July.  In 28 combined big league games this season, the outfielder hit just .203/.294/.237.  His Triple-A numbers have been much stronger as he posted a .277/.361/.455 line in 74 games this season.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Twins Notes: Bard, Colabello, Morneau, Hamburger

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Here’s a look at the latest on the Twins..

  • The Twins “are in the due diligence phase” on Daniel Bard, whose brother Luke is a Minnesota farmhand, 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson tweets. Injuries have plagued the 28-year-old’s 2013 campaign, as he’s pitched just one inning in the majors this year and has a 6.46 ERA in 15 1/3 minor league innings. Still, Bard has two years of arbitration remaining and posted a 3.33 ERA in 73 innings for Boston as recently as 2011, so he may be worth a claim.
  • Chris Colabello’s opposite-field power could help him earn the Twins’ first base job following the departure of Justin Morneau, Berardino writes. Colabello, 29, has managed just a .193/.270/.360 line in 126 plate appearances for the Twins this year, but was hitting .352/.427/.639 for the club’s Triple-A affiliate before being called up in May.
  • The Twins have signed well-traveled right-hander Mark Hamburger to a minor league deal, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. Hamburger, who was originally signed out of an amateur tryout camp by the Twins in 2007, managed to catch on long enough with the Rangers to pitch eight major league innings in 2011. However, the 26-year-old hasn’t pitched in the majors since. He’ll have to serve a 50-game suspension for testing positive a second time for a drug of abuse before he can play a game, Berardino notes. 

Quick Hits: Waiver Trades, Hamilton, Blazek, Bard

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Twins GM Terry Ryan says he has no qualms about blocking potential August trades by making waiver claims, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes (via Twitter). Ryan says he was surprised that Marlon Byrd — who's having a strong season and makes a paltry $700K — made it all the way through waivers until the Pirates claimed him. The Reds, for example, had waiver priority on the Pirates and might well have chosen to claim Byrd, both because Byrd would have cheaply improved their own team and also to prevent the rival Pirates from getting him. Here are more notes from around baseball.

  • The Cardinals are the first big-league team that will have to figure out how to stop Billy Hamilton of the Reds, Max Schmetzer of MLB.com writes. Of course, that means that the basestealing phenom will have to battle against Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina. "We have film on [Hamilton]," says Cardinals manager Mike Matheny. "We're not going to ask the pitchers to be quicker on him or the catchers to throw quicker." Before the season, Hamilton was ranked the No. 20 prospect in baseball by Baseball America and No. 30 by ESPN's Keith Law. Even in a disappointing 2013 season, Hamilton managed to swipe 75 bases for Triple-A Louisville.
  • Reliever Michael Blazek spent several days in "limbo" before being shipped from the Cardinals to the Brewers in the John Axford deal, Adam McCalvy and Kevin Massoth of MLB.com write. The Cards technically optioned Blazek to Triple-A Memphis on Thursday, but he was actually just waiting in his hotel in St. Louis, presumably to be called up when rosters expanded on Sunday. Instead, in his third day away from the team, he learned he was headed to Milwaukee.
  • Daniel Bard was recently designated for assignment by the Red Sox, but claiming him on waivers could be a tricky proposition, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. That's because the claiming team would have to decide by early December whether to take Bard to arbitration, where he would receive a minimum of about $1.5MM next year. That might be a lot to pay a player who appears to be nowhere near the pitcher he was in 2009 through 2011, when he was a solid relief option.

Aaron Steen contributed to this post.

Red Sox Notes: Bard, Uehara, Saltalamacchia

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As he moves from Baseball America to MLB.com, Jim Callis spoke with WEEI.com's Alex Speier about his two decades covering the Red Sox farm system. Anyone interested in the Sox system or prospect rankings more generally should listen in as Callis effectively passes the baton to Speier. Here's some more Red Sox chatter …

  • When Boston acquired John McDonald just before the August 31st post-season roster deadline, it became the infielder's eighth major league team in his career and his fourth club this season, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com notes. “I’ve been getting closer to home, going from Arizona, to Pittsburgh, to Cleveland to Philly to Boston,” said the 38-year-old, who was drafted out of Rhode Island's Providence College in 1996. "It might be baseball's way of telling me something. But I’m not ready to listen." 
  • The implosion of Daniel Bard — designated for assignment yesterday by the Sox — resulted from the "worst misstep" of GM Ben Cherington's early tenure at the helm, writes the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber. Switching Bard to the rotation, rather than making him the team's closer, not only aligned with the onset of Bard's various issues but triggered a series of ill-fated trades involving late-inning relievers.
  • While the team had hoped that new manager John Farrell would help turn Bard around, he does not sound sanguine about that possibility at this point, and leaves the impression that the team is moving on. While a change of scenery "can help," said Farrell, "to say that that’s the sole reason, that would be wishful thinking.” So what went wrong? “It was a combination of delivery issues that were being ironed out and certainly confidence issues,” Farrell said. “That’s where the question was, which comes first. We felt like performance was going to lead to confidence. It looked like he was on his way, and unfortunately, it didn’t happen.”
  • For another look at Bard's downfall, the Providence Journal's Tim Britton provides an interesting timeline of quotes from Bard and others.
  • In spite of the rocky history of the Red Sox closers of late, Koji Uehara has brought clarity to the situation. WEEI.com's Rob Bradford argues that he could be the most important player in the entire American League because of the way he settled down a potentially disastrous situation. Even as Uehara creeps closer to guaranteeing himself a $5MM payday next year through his contract's vesting option – he is just five games finished away – Boston will surely be glad to pay up.
  • Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia has done everything he could to set himself up for a big contract when he reaches free agency this off-season as a 28-year-old, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. As the Sox decide whether and how much to bid on Salty, one important and hard-to-quantify question is the extent to which the team values his handling of the team's pitching staff. MacPherson suggests that his rapport with the club's arms could make him more valuable to Boston than other organizations. Of course, this is an area where the Sox have an information advantage on the rest of the market.

Quick Hits: Black, Pirates, Rasmussen, McDonald

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Reliever Vic Black did not suspect he would be headed to the Mets as the player to be named in the Marlon Byrd deal with the Pirates, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com writes. "It never crossed my mind," Black says. Black notes that his goal is to close in the big leagues, saying that he has the aggressive mentality necessary to be a closer. He also has closer-type stuff, with a plus fastball and a slider. Black had a 2.51 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 Triple-A Indianapolis this season. Here are more notes from around the Majors.

  • The loss of Black and, potentially, Duke Welker (who may or may not be headed to the Twins as the PTBNL in the Justin Morneau trade) will add more uncertainty to a Pirates' Triple-A Indianapolis roster that has already had more than its share of flux. Brian Peloza of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review writes that the Pirates have promoted 18 different players from Indianapolis this season, more than other NL playoff contenders. Those players include Black, Welker, Alex Presley (the other player included in the Morneau deal), and top prospect Gerrit Cole.
  • The Phillies believe that Rob Rasmussen, the pitcher they received when they traded Michael Young to the Dodgers, could end up as a reliever, Bob Brookover of the Inquirer reports. "He's starting now, but he could be a guy later on who could pitch in the bullpen," GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says. "Lefthanders are always valuable. He's viewed as a really strong makeup kid with a big arm." Rasmussen, 24, had a 2.55 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 for Double-A Chattanooga in 2013, although he struggled in 54 1/3 innings for Triple-A Albuquerque.
  • Connecticut native and Massachusetts resident John McDonald is happy that a trade to the Red Sox brought him home, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. "[G]rowing up in New England, and getting to play in Fenway, and to put this uniform on today, it’s pretty awesome," McDonald says. The Red Sox will be the fourth team the infielder has played for this season, having also suited up for the Pirates, Indians and Phillies.
  • Angels owner Arte Moreno needs to share his plan to rebuild the team with superstar outfielder Mike Trout, argues the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin. Trout will be close to free agency by the time it will become possible for the Angels to return to contention, at least on a regular basis, Shaikin says.
  • The Rockies need to acquire a veteran starter in the offseason, and they also need bullpen help and a right-handed power bat, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post writes. Nonetheless, Renck suggests that the improvements in the Rockies' rotation this year (their 2013 starters have a 4.37 ERA, compared to a 5.81 ERA in 2012) suggest that the team is heading in the right direction.

Red Sox Designate Daniel Bard For Assignment

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The Red Sox have designated reliever Daniel Bard for assignment, reports Alex Speier of WEEI.com. The move creates a 40-man roster spot for the call-up of recent acquisition Quintin Berry.

The former top-100 prospect established himself as a dominating late-inning reliever in 2010, but melted down when the team attempted to convert him back into a starter last season. This season, his control issues have reached (and exceeded) Rick Ankiel levels. In an injury-shortened campaign, Bard is allowing 15.8 BB/9 in 15 1/3 minor league innings.

Bard's 2013 salary is $1.8625, and he remains arbitration-eligible for 2014-15. As Speier notes, Bard does still have an option remaining, making it plausible that a team would roll the dice on him with a 40-man roster spot. For a further read on Bard's struggles, check out this excellent piece from Matthew Kory of Sports on Earth. 

Red Sox Acquire John McDonald

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The Red Sox have acquired infielder John McDonald from the Phillies in exchange for minor league pitcher Nefi Ogando, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets. Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe adds that the Phillies are sending cash along in the deal (Twitter link).

The Red Sox become the fourth team this year for McDonald, who has also seen time with the Pirates and the Indians. The 38-year-old has appeared at second base, shortstop and third base in 2013, but has managed just a .098/.179/.164 batting line in 68 plate appearances. A 15-year veteran, McDonald is a career .235/.274/.327 hitter.

Ogando, 24, has thrown 55 innings for the Red Sox's high-A affiliate this season, posting a 4.09 ERA with a 7.2 K/9 and a 4.4 BB/9. He wasn't ranked among Boston's top 10 prospects by Baseball America after the 2012 season.

Red Sox Notes: Bullpen, Cherington, Victorino, Peavy

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As the Red Sox look to continue to extend their lead over the rest of the American League East, let's look at some links out of Boston …

  • While a source says that the Sox are still "kicking stuff around" regarding a possible trade today, WEEI.com's Rob Bradford reports that nothing appears imminent. Bradford notes that Boston has been quiet in part because it has failed to see desirable players reach its spot on the waiver wire during August. The club is most likely looking to add bullpen depth at this point, Bradford notes, and is seemingly no longer interested in the Phillies' Michael Young, who has cleared waivers.
  • The Sox need to do everything possible to add a bullpen piece, argues John Tomase of the Boston Globe. Noting that GM Ben Cherington's track record with relievef pitching acquisitions has been spotty, Tomase argues that the team should find an alternative set-up option to the inconsistent Junichi Tazawa. It should be noted that Tazawa has continued to post the same impressive strikeout-to-walk rate that he did last year: in 2013, he has 9.45 K/9 and 1.35 BB/9. He has seen his ERA inflate to a still-solid 2.70 (in 60 innings pitched) due primarily to a much higher home run rate (1.20 HR/9) than the very low rate (.20 HR/9) he put up last year.
  • Cherington discussed a few topics in a short interview yesterday with Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com (video link). He noted, in particular, that he believes this club has been constructed with sufficient depth and professionalism to avoid another historic collapse over the stretch run. 
  • One of the key players in this season's so-far successful run is outfielder Shane Victorino, whose solid bat and spectacular defense has been worth at least five wins above replacement according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. As WEEI.com's Alex Speier writes, the three-year, $39MM deal that brought Victorino to Boston — which was viewed by some as an overpay at the time — has been an unquestionable bargain.
  • In another piece, Speier looks at recent Red Sox acquisition Jake Peavy and the two key trades that have shaped his career. Looking back at the 2009 trade that sent him to the White Sox, Peavy said that he knew "the Padres had to move me" and was prepared to consider Chicago since he had previously vetoed another deal that would have sent him there.

Royals, Red Sox Swap Berry For Mortensen

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The Royals and Red Sox have swapped outfielder Quintin Berry for right-hander Clayton Mortensen, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal (Twitter link).

Berry, 28, was claimed by the Royals from the Tigers on June 4 but quickly outrighted to Triple-A Omaha. In 371 Triple-A plate appearances between the Tigers and Royals, he's batting .193/.309/.260 with 28 stolen bases in 32 attempts. Berry was significantly better when he saw regular time with Detroit last season, hitting .258/.330/.354 with a perfect 21 steals in 21 attempts in 94 games.

Mortensen, also 28, posted a 5.34 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and a 45.5 percent ground-ball rate in 30 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this season. Boston optioned him to Triple-A Pawtucket in late June and he's fared much better, pitching to a 2.45 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 44 innings. He's moved to the rotation recently, stretching out to seven innings in his most recent outing. Since moving to a starting role on Aug. 2, he's allowed just three runs in 27 1/3 innings.

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