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2007 Boston Red Sox

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Recently, I took a look at how the 2007 Blue Jays might spend their money this winter.  Let’s give the Red Sox the same treatment.

Under contract for 2007:

Expected 2007 payroll: $120-140MM (Olney)

C – Jason Varitek – $9MM
1B – Kevin Youkilis – $0.4MM
2B – Dustin Pedroia – 0.3MM
SS –
3B – Mike Lowell – $9MM
LF – Manny Ramirez – $18MM
CF – Coco Crisp – $3.5MM
RF – Wily Mo Pena – $2.5MM, Eric Hinske – $5.625MM
DH – David Ortiz – $12.5MM

SP – Curt Schilling – $13MM
SP – Josh Beckett – $6MM
SP – Tim Wakefield – $4MM
SP – Jonathan Papelbon – $0.35MM
SP –
SP – Matt Clement – $9.5MM
SP – Jon Lester – $0.35MM

RP –
RP – Julian Tavarez – $3.1MM
RP – Craig Hansen – $1MM
RP – Manny Delcarmen – $0.35MM
RP –
RP –
RP – Craig Breslow – $0.3MM

The Red Sox have about $100MM committed by my estimate; you can add in a few more million in case they hang on to Hee Seop Choi or Carlos Pena. 

The team’s decision with Jonathan Papelbon will be interesting because it will determine the area of pitching on which they need to focus.  If he goes to the rotation, the team can get by without a major free agent signing.  I’m assuming Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, and Papelbon enter spring training healthy.  The team could use spot starters like Kyle Snyder to fill the fifth spot until one of Matt Clement or Jon Lester is ready to step in.

Taking Papelbon out of the bullpen leaves us with Julian Tavarez and a cast of even bigger question marks.  The free agent market offers no reassurances.  The Red Sox can bring back guys like Keith Foulke, Chad Bradford, Alan Embree, or Mike Timlin, but those are expensive gambles.  They can risk millions on Danys Baez, Eric Gagne, Bob Wickman, or Joe Borowski.  As I mentioned before, a trade for Brad Lidge might make sense in this scenario.  Boston is going to have to stockpile relief pitching depth somehow.  One outside the box solution would be to go after Japanese closer Hirotoshi Ishii.

I figure the club can go with Dustin Pedroia at second base to save some cash, making shortstop the only obvious remaining hole.  Alex Gonzalez would be no worse a solution than he was last year.  Otherwise there’s Craig Counsell or maybe overpaying for Julio Lugo.  The answer here won’t be pretty.

As far as trades go, speculation has been that the Red Sox will attempt to unload some of Mike Lowell, Coco Crisp, and Matt Clement.  This is where Theo Epstein has the chance to be creative and find some relievers for cheap.  Crisp and Clement would be selling low, so the Red Sox could wait until they show something in ’07 before making a deal. 

Lowell’s had a nice bounceback season; he’s been a touch above league average for his position.  Given a weak free agent 3B class the Red Sox might get some value back by taking on a portion of his $9MM salary.  The Sox could use Kevin Youkilis at third base and then try some combo of Hinske, Choi, and Pena at first.  The Twins, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, or Padres could match up in a Lowell trade.

If ownership really does want to expand the payroll past $120MM, they could make another attempt to bring Roger Clemens in as a midseason reinforcement.  Buster Olney, for one, sees this happening. 

 

Red Sox Should Trade For Lidge

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Given Jonathan Papelbon’s recent hints about starting in 2007, there’s a lot of hubbub about who might close for the Red Sox next season.

Let me preface this by saying that I agree with Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver: Papelbon should remain a closer.  His utter dominance in relief, the taxing nature of his splitter, the open question about his ability to throw 200 innings.  Why risk it?  As Silver says, "A great closer is as valuable as all but the very best starters, once we properly account for the effects of leverage."

But say the Red Sox do use Papelbon as a starter in 2007 (I’m not anywhere near convinced they will).  Who’s going to pitch the ninth inning in Boston?  It’s really not their style to pursue any of these guys.  Only Eric Gagne has the potential to be elite, so the Boston papers are throwing his name around.  But let’s not forget that Gagne has thrown all of 15.3 innings over the last two seasons.  He’s a very risky signing, especially if he would require an inflated offer to leave L.A.

The better solution, in my mind, is to try to trade for Brad Lidge.  Lidge is still healthy and it would be a buy low situation.  It wouldn’t be the first time the Red Sox have looked at acquiring him.  Lidge is still racking up the strikeouts, though his control has slipped to a dangerous level.  He won’t be a free agent until after the 2008 season.

Whether or not the Red Sox target Lidge, relying on one of the available free agent closers doesn’t seem like their style.  They gave Keith Foulke a big contract after 2003, but Foulke was one of the game’s dominant closers at the time.  There’s no similar free agent option this year.  How about a creative solution: give the job to a starter?  Matt Clement, Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Kerry Wood, or Randy Wolf could surprise as a closer if one of them is willing to give it a shot. 

Julio Lugo Considering Mets

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Word comes today from the New York Post that free agent infielder Julio Lugo grew up a Mets fan and will "definitely" consider the club if they’re interested.  He’s open to second base or shortstop for his new team.

Last year, Lugo’s age 29 season, looked like a career year for the shortstop.  He hit .295/.362/.403 and was the fifth best shortstop in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus.  This season, in an injury-shortened 72 games with the Devil Rays, Lugo hit .308/.373/.498.  All three marks are career bests.

At the trading deadline, the Dodgers sent promising young prosect Joel Guzman to the Devil Rays for Lugo.  Lugo’s been a terrible hitter for L.A. while playing 2B, 3B, and even a little OF.  It was a curious trade for Los Angeles. 

As the easy choice for the best shortstop on the market, Lugo should command upwards of four years and $40MM.  It would be surprising to see the Mets pay that kind of money for a second baseman, so Lugo would probably have to give a hometown discount to become a Met.  Several teams are going to entertain the possibility of Lugo as their next shortstop.  Possibilities include the Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Reds.  The smart money is on the Red Sox or Jays.

There was some ugliness involving Lugo and his wife in 2003.  The Astros instantly demoted Lugo after he reportedly assaulted his wife.  He was later found innocent after Mabely Lugo changed her story.   

Red Sox Ask For Matt Kemp In David Wells Deal

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According to both the Boston Herald and the Los Angeles Daily News, the Red Sox have asked for 21 year-old outfielder Matt Kemp in exchange for David Wells.

Tony Jackson of the L.A. paper actually suggests that the Red Sox requested a package of prospects including Kemp.  As in, more than just Kemp.  Jackson states that the request "probably makes the deal impossible unless Boston general manager Theo Epstein reduces his asking price."

That’s an understatement.  Six years of Matt Kemp for a month or two of David Wells?  That’d be even worse than two or three months of an infielder you don’t really need in exchange for Joel Guzman.  The Dodgers are also talking about adding John Mabry, for some reason.

Kemp turns 22 in September.  Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein named him as the fourth-best center field prospect in the game, behind Cameron Maybin, Chris Young, and Justin Upton.  Most of those will be household names in two or three years.  Goldstein mentions that Kemp’s size could force a move to a corner outfield position eventually.  Much has been made of Kemp’s power outage at Triple A, where he has three home runs in 43 games.  However, he’s still slugging .554 due to 14 doubles and six triples.  The power is fine. His plate discipline may need a little fine-tuning though.

Another reason Kemp and other top-flight prospects are probably staying put: anyone on the 40-man roster has to pass through waivers.  Why would the 29 other teams allow a stud outfield prospect to pass by unclaimed?  That would be one hell of a gentleman’s agreement. 

 

Red Sox May Trade David Wells

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Buster Olney has the word: the Red Sox are shopping southpaw David Wells.  The 43 year-old has a deserved reputation as a big game pitcher, and any contender would love to have him.

Olney speculates that the Mets, Twins, D’Backs, Padres, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, A’s, and Reds could get involved.  I suppose the White Sox, Giants, or even the Marlins could be interested as well.  Did you know Florida is just two games out of the wild card? 

UPDATE: Padres, Dodgers, and Cards are frontrunners according to Nick Cafardo.

Will Roger Clemens Pitch In 2007?

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Deja vu all over again: it looks like we’re in for another winter of Roger Clemens rumors.  With a 2.50 ERA in 80 innings, his delayed debut has been a smashing success.  The only problem is that the Astros have a nearly unsurmountable deficit in the playoff standings.

As Buster Olney speculates in his blog today, the Red Sox will probably be willing to pay the Rocket $4MM a month to get them to the World Series in 2007.  Olney figures the chances of this happening are better than 50%.  Would the Yankees counter with $5MM a month and a game-used Luis Sojo baseball bat?  Perhaps.

Olney: Waiver Trade Candidates

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In case you missed it, Buster Olney posted a list of players who have passed through waivers and can be traded to any team before Thursday’s deadline.  Here’s the list:

David Wells
Shawn Chacon
Jae Seo
Sidney Ponson
Bruce Chen
Jeromy Burnitz
Jeff Conine
Jay Payton
Bobby Kielty
Reggie Sanders
Luis Matos
Jay Gibbons
Geoff Jenkins
Gabe Kapler

Rosenthal: Red Sox May Make Eric Hinske Trade

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According to our good friend Ken Rosenthal, Toronto 1B/3B/RF/DH Eric Hinske has cleared waivers and the Red Sox are discussing a trade.  Rosenthal mentions that Hinske was pulled from the lineup tonight.

Moving Hinske and his contract makes good sense given the emergence of outfielder/DH Adam Lind.  Hinske, who turned 29 this month, will make $5.626MM next year to finish his contract.  Hinske has declined over the years since winning the ROY in 2002 by hitting .279/.365/.481 and playing third base.  This season, he’s learned how to play right field and has a career high .513 SLG. 

As a rookie, Hinske’s numbers were boosted by limited exposure to southpaws.  He faced them in about 22% of his plate appearances that year.  In 2003-04, the Jays set him loose to face lefties in about 29% of his PAs.  He did terribly.  He didn’t really do much against righties either during those seasons either.  This year and last, they’ve cut him back to face lefties less than 20% of his PAs.  Maybe just the prospect of facing southpaws on a regular basis frightens Hinske into performing poorly against all pitchers.

He wouldn’t have that problem in Boston, where he’d form a formidable platoon with Wily Mo Pena.  It’d be a fine move by Theo Epstein for this year and ’07, though there are some decent short term options for rightfielders this winter. 

UPDATE: According to Gordon Edes, the deal is done pending commissioner approval.

Red Sox Acquire Javy Lopez

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As you well know, the Red Sox have picked up their 3-5 week catcher replacement in Javy Lopez.  The Red Sox are sending 26 year-old outfielder Adam Stern to the Orioles in return. 

Multiple reports mention that the Devil Rays could claim Stern as revenge for the Red Sox illegally talking to Julio Lugo’s agent.  Ah, the drama.  If the D-Rays try it the Red Sox can just send Stern as a player to be named later this winter. 

Lopez makes $8.5MM in the last year of his deal.  He’s another data point for not signing catchers over age 30 to multi-year deals.  Didn’t work well for Jason Kendall, Mike Lieberthal, and many others.  Jason Varitek declined drastically with the bat this season.  No catcher on the market this winter will get a long-term deal, anyway. 

Red Sox Pursuing Javy Lopez

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Newspapers from both Boston and Baltimore are confirming that the Red Sox have contacted the Orioles about catcher Javy Lopez.  The 35 year-old Lopez has only caught twenty games this season, but he could certainly provide acceptable offense for the rest of the month until Jason Varitek comes back.

The Boston Herald indicates that Lopez could clear waivers today.  A source tells me that the Red Sox may part with 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez.  Alvarez is the guy who wears his hat crooked to compensate for being legally blind in one eye.  He’s proven quite hittable in Triple A this year.  Back in June, the Red Sox offered Alvarez for Ryan Shealy.  Alvarez seems to get mentioned in a lot of trade rumors.

The Yankees wouldn’t be able to block a claim of Lopez, as they have a slight lead in the standings today.  It’s hard to picture another American League team blocking the claim, but you never know.  Should Lopez fall through, here are some other options the Red Sox might consider.  Among those, a couple of Philly papers have already indicated that the Sox aren’t interested in Mike Lieberthal.   

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