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International Notes: Jose Abreu, Bryan De La Cruz

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Here's the latest from the international prospect market…

  • "Every team had someone" present at Jose Abreu's showcases on Monday and Tuesday, Baseball America's Ben Badler reports, but the Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Marlins and Giants had the largest presences.  Badler reported a few days ago that the Rangers could be the favorites to sign Abreu, with the Red Sox, White Sox, Pirates and Nationals also strong contenders.
  • The Giants were known to be interested in Abreu and they sent "an especially large crew" to his showcase that included GM Brian Sabeau, Felipe Alou and Pat Burrell.  Badler finds this curious given that the Giants already have Brandon Belt, but he speculates that San Francisco could sign Abreu and then move Belt to left field to possibly shop him in a trade.
  • As for the showcase itself, Badler said Abreu "didn’t seem to hurt his stock" as a right-handed hitting power bat.  Abreu took a few grounders at third base though that may have just been as a test of arm strength, as Badler writes that Abreu is "almost certain to sign as a first baseman."
  • The Astros have signed 16-year-old Bryan de la Cruz to a contract with a $170K bonus, Ben Badler reports.  A 6'2", 175-pound outfielder from the Dominican Republic, de la Cruz has "good tools" and has shown "power potential" from the right side of the plate.  De la Cruz is the ninth player signed by Houston since the international signing period opened on July 2.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Matusz, Casilla, Red Sox

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The Orioles surrendered Pedro Strop and right-handed Jake Arrieta to land Scott Feldman for the second half of 2013 and there is mutual interest in continuing that partnership in 2014 and beyond.  It won't be cheap for the O's to keep him, however.  Our own Steve Adams recently sized up Feldman's free agent stock and estimated that he could be in line for a two-year, $17MM deal with a three-year, $25MM pact as his ceiling.  Here's more out of Baltimore and the AL East..

  • Orioles pitcher Brian Matusz could be on the block as he made $1.6MM last season and is due for a pay bump in 2014, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com.  The left-hander posted a 3.53 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 65 relief appearances last season.
  • Alexi Casilla's time with the Orioles has almost certainly come to an end, but manager Buck Showalter wishes things went differently for him in Baltimore, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. “He’s the one guy who I wished I’d been able to play him more. Whether it’s with us or somebody else, they’re going to get a good teammate and good player next year. He’s allowed us to do a lot of things that we couldn’t have done because of his versatility,” Showalter said. The O's have a $3MM option on the infielder but they'll almost certainly buy him out for $200K instead.
  • Red Sox GM Ben Cherington didn't just add pitching, power, and defense last winter, he built the team with an emphasis on character, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com.  "You don't hear that that often," said Jonny Gomes. "You hear a lot about different ways to win. The Giants did it with pitching. The Cardinals do with by bringing up a lot of young players. But maybe this (the attention to makeup) is the new way."

Free Agent Profile: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

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Jarrod Saltalamacchia was one of the ten most valuable catchers in baseball in 2013, and he had the best overall year of any free agent backstop.  The former first-round draft pick hits free agency with youth on his side.

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Strengths/Pros

Among catchers, Salty is one of the biggest power threats in the game, ranking fifth with 55 home runs since 2011.  He also ranks first in isolated power and third in slugging percentage.  He put up a career-best .466 SLG this year, banging out 54 extra-base hits.  A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia hit .294/.350/.523 against righties this year.

Saltalamacchia's walk rate continued to rise, as his 9.1% this year was his best since 2008.  He hit a career-best .273, and coupled with the walks, his .338 on-base percentage was also his best since '08.  Among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, Saltalamacchia's .804 OPS ranked sixth in all of baseball, even topping Brian McCann.

Salty is above average at blocking pitches, according to the RPP stat at FanGraphs.  Additionally, his pitch framing skills were worth 23 runs from 2007-11, according to an article by Mike Fast for Baseball Prospectus.  He's seen as the leader of the Boston pitching staff, and has their trust.

Saltalamacchia doesn't turn 29 years old until May, and is one of only a handful of free agents who will be under 30 in 2014.  As agent Jim Munsey pitches Salty on the free agent market, his client's youth is a big asset compared to someone like Carlos Ruiz or A.J. Pierzynski.

Weaknesses/Cons

A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .206/.269/.338 line since 2011.  In his three years with the Red Sox, they benched him against southpaws only in 2012, when Kelly Shoppach was on board for most of the season.  It's likely Salty would have batted less against lefties this year had backup David Ross not spent 74 days on the DL.  Many players have platoon splits, but Saltalamacchia's is more extreme than other catchers on the free agent market.

Saltalamacchia regularly strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances.  Among all players with 400 plate appearances in 2013, Salty's 29.6% strikeout rate is the ninth-worst.  Of those bottom nine, most hit below .235, and his .273 average does not seem repeatable.  From 2011-12, Saltalamacchia hit .228/.288/.452 across 834 plate appearances, a more reasonable expectation moving forward.  A .290 OBP is below-average even for a catcher; as a group, they're at .310 this year.

Saltalamacchia is below average at throwing out attempting basestealers and preventing them from trying, according to FanGraphs.  His caught stealing percentage of 21.2% was second-to-last among qualified catchers this year.

Saltalamacchia earned $4.5MM this year, so a qualifying offer would triple his salary.  Still, it's likely he'd decline and take his best shot at a multiyear deal elsewhere, even with the loss of leverage from having a draft pick attached.  It's easy enough to justify the loss of a draft pick to sign McCann, but less so for Saltalamacchia, especially with Ruiz and Pierzynski as alternatives.

Personal

Saltalamacchia, who has the longest last name in Major League history at 14 letters, resides in Wellington, Florida with his wife Ashley and daughters Sidney, Hunter Riley, and Sloan.  He received the Good Guy Award from Boston writers after the 2012 season, and serves as a Jimmy Fund co-captain as one of his many charitable contributions.  Jarrod is extremely involved in charitable work, and truly enjoys it.  His hobbies include hunting and fishing, according to the Red Sox media guide.

Saltalamacchia was a key figure in the legendary July 2007 trade that also sent Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Harrison from the Braves to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay.  Three years later, he was traded to Boston.

Market

"I don't want to go anywhere else," Saltalamacchia told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May.  Given his familiarity with their pitching and coaching staff, Salty provides extra value for the Red Sox, and it seems likely they'll attempt to retain him.  In the organization, the Red Sox have Blake Swihart, who finished at High-A, Christian Vazquez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, and 26-year-old Ryan Lavarnway, who has played at Triple-A in each of the last three seasons and has caught 58 games in the bigs.  Lavarnway could be the immediate answer, though he slugged just .350 at Triple-A this year, and the pitching staff might not be thrilled throwing regularly to such an inexperienced catcher.  Even if the Sox need to sign a veteran catcher this winter, they seem to have enough depth to limit their offer to Saltalamacchia to three years.

In my Carlos Ruiz free agent profile, I mentioned the Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves as potential fits.  Saltalamacchia's struggles against left-handed pitching could give the Phillies pause, while the "bridge appears quite charred in both directions" regarding a potential return to Texas, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.  It's also hard to picture a return to the Braves, who will probably piece something more affordable together assuming McCann leaves.  Though the Jays could look to improve upon J.P. Arencibia, would they replace him with a different high-strikeout, potentially low-OBP catcher like Saltalamacchia, possibly at the expense of their second-round draft pick?  The Yankees are a viable landing spot, though perhaps not at four years.  The White Sox may be a potential dark horse, with potential platoon partners in-house in the form of Tyler Flowers and Josh Phegley.  Free agent alternatives to Saltalamacchia will include McCann, Ruiz, Pierzynski, and Dioner Navarro.

Expected Contract

The floor on Saltalamacchia is probably three years and $24MM or so.  ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote he thinks the market will offer Saltalamacchia a four-year deal, perhaps in the range of $10MM per year.  The remaining question is which team would reasonably do so.  Though I've yet to identify a club I think will go four years on Saltalamacchia, I agree that he will eventually find it, and I'm predicting a four-year, $36MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Pence, Westbrook, Abreu, Astros

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While it’s not a mistake on the level of the Barry Zito contract, the Giants could come to regret the Hunter Pence deal, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. The $90MM contract won’t stop them from winning if they can surround him with quality players on undervalue contracts, but that’s obviously easier said than done. Here’s more from around baseball..

  • Jake Westbrook can read the writing on the wall and knows that his time with the Cardinals is likely over, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Between his struggles and the Cards’ wealth of young pitching, Westbrook isn’t expected to be placed on the postseason roster. Westbrook isn’t certain if he will pitch in 2014 and plans to discuss with his family in the offseason.
  • Ben Badler of Baseball America spoke with international sources to identify five teams that could sign Jose Dariel Abreu.  The White Sox, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, and Rangers look like the frontrunners for the Cuban standout with Texas possibly having the inside track on everyone.
  • Prior to a charity event earlier today, Astros owner Jim Crane said that he plans to spend money in 2014 to help turn the club around, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. “Now we have a nucleus to draw from. And so we got that established. I think in the off-season you’ll see Jeff [Luhnow], and he’s already said it, we’re going to fill some of those holes. As the kids come up through the system we can get competitive very quick. We lost a lot of one-run games. It’s pretty obvious where our needs are, and we’ll work on those in the offseason and start loosening the purse book,” Crane said.
  • Cubs president Theo Epstein says he will look first and foremost at candidates with managerial experience, tweets Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter) notes that the Dodgers hold an option on manager Don Mattingly for 2014.  The option is worth $1.4MM, sources tell Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Napoli

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A three-year, $39MM guarantee with the Red Sox for slugger Mike Napoli was renegotiated all the way down to a one-year, $5MM contract in the course of about two months during the offseason, as a physical revealed he has avascular necrosis (AVN) in both hips.  The degenerative condition, which came as a surprise to Napoli, was caught early and has not affected his play to date.  Napoli avoided the DL this year, earning $8MM in incentives to bring his 2013 earnings to the same $13MM average annual value from his original three-year contract.  Now, he's eligible to return to the free agent market coming off a fine season.

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Strengths/Pros

Napoli is one of the top sluggers on the free agent market, as he leads all qualified free agents in isolated power.  He's tied for sixth among all free agents with 23 home runs and is fourth in slugging at .482, assuming Adam Lind's option is picked up.  Napoli is one of just ten players to hit at least 20 home runs in each of the 2008-13 seasons.  

A right-handed hitter, Napoli's on-base percentage is boosted by a strong career walk rate of 12%.  This year, his .360 OBP ranks third among qualified free agents.  If you're looking for offense from a right-handed hitter, Napoli is one of the best 15 bats in the game right now.

We don't take much stock in RBI here at MLBTR, but it may help Napoli's bargaining position that he ranks second among free agents with 92 knocked in.  The player ranked above him, Robinson Cano, will require a much larger commitment.

Formerly a catcher, Napoli proved this year he can play an acceptable first base, logging nearly 1,100 innings at the position with strong grades from UZR/150 (+13.3) and The Fielding Bible (+10).

Napoli comes with a reputation as a winner, as this year will mark his sixth postseason out of eight total seasons.  He was a big performer for the Rangers in 2011, driving in 15 runs in 17 games.

Weaknesses/Cons

While Napoli's AVN has not affected his play or caused him to miss time to date, the Red Sox were concerned enough about the condition to reduce their offer to one guaranteed year at less than 40% of the original salary.  Napoli was back on the open market during the seven-plus weeks his contract was being renegotiated, and while agent Brian Grieper praised his client for his loyalty, it's likely other interested teams shared Boston's concern and didn't offer significantly more.

Napoli has proven his health to the extent possible this year by setting a career best in plate appearances with 578 in the regular season.  It's difficult to project his playing time in the future, however, since he was previously a catcher and has now been diagnosed with AVN.  Napoli had more than his fair share of separate injuries, with 53 DL days in '07, 32 in '08, 22 in '11, and 35 in '12.  These injuries, involving his ankle, hamstring, shoulder, oblique, and quad, may have been related to time spent at catcher, but his history dates back to the minors.  Any team considering a multiyear offer has to take the entire injury history into account.

Napoli struck out in 32.4% of his plate appearances this year, worst among all qualified free agents.  Mark Reynolds and Marlon Byrd are the only other two to even top 20%.  Napoli's strikeouts, which have increased in the past two years, are a big reason why he's hitting .246 since 2012.  Given his walk rate, it still makes for a strong OBP, but if he bats .240 and walks dip to his 2009-10 level, his OBP will no longer be an asset.  Additionally, as you would expect from a former catcher, Napoli's baserunning is below average.

I mentioned earlier that Napoli leads all free agents in isolated power, but his .223 mark is actually his worst since 2009.  Given his previous production and career high in plate appearances, I would have expected Napoli to have over 30 home runs at this point rather than 23.

The Rangers chose not to tender Napoli a $13.3MM qualifying offer after the 2012 season, but with a healthier campign and their recent preference for short-term deals, the Red Sox are likely to make the $14MM qualifying offer five days after the World Series ends.  Napoli is the type of player the system hurts the most: one who is good but not great, and doesn't have the youth of a B.J. Upton.  With the cost of a first or even second round draft pick, a few teams could lose interest in Napoli.

Personal

Mike resides in Pembroke Pines, Florida.  He values time with his family, and even has his mother's name, Donna Rose, tattooed on his arm.  Mike is a big fan of the NFL and college football, particularly the University of Miami.

Market

It would be reasonable for the Red Sox to try to bring Napoli back, and a qualifying offer or the threat of one gives them some leverage.  We've seen them tangle with David Ortiz in this type of situation, with Ortiz accepting arbitration after the 2011 season and getting a two-year deal done last November with a qualifying offer in hand, before hitting the open market.  The Red Sox were willing to offer Napoli three years and $39MM to sign him off the open market last winter before the AVN revelation, but they honed in on him, Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, and Stephen Drew in part they would not cost a draft pick.  The Sox liked the two-year, $26MM price enough on Ortiz to forgo the chance at draft pick compensation for him, and I wonder if two years might be their limit on Napoli.  On the other hand, they don't have much in the way of alternatives.

Draft pick compensation will affect Napoli on the open market if he turns down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox.  Still, teams like the Twins, Rockies, and Mets, with protected first round draft picks and openings at first base, seem like good fits.  Napoli has the advantage of a very weak free agent market for first basemen.  Kendrys Morales is more of a DH, and could be dragging around a qualifying offer as well.  Otherwise the options are Corey Hart, James Loney, Justin Morneau, Mike Morse, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, and Paul Konerko.  As one commenter notes below, the wild card in the first base market is Jose Dariel Abreu, the Cuban slugger in whom the Red Sox may have interest.

Expected Contract

I think a qualifying offer can knock a year off a player's contract, as it seemingly did with Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, so two years and $28MM is the floor for Napoli.  Ultimately I predict Napoli will land a three-year, $42MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Price, Longoria, Ortiz, Helton

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We've already shared a Nate McLouth free agent profile, some Blue Jays notes, Yankees notes and the news of Robinson Cano's contract demands today, so let's take a look around the rest of the AL East…

  • This could be David Price's last season and playoff run with the Rays, as CBS Sports' Danny Knobler figures that this offseason (when Price has two remaining years of team control) is the perfect time for the Rays to maximize their return on a trade.
  • Rays third baseman Evan Longoria looked up to Derek Jeter as a kid, yet he didn't emulate Jeter by playing for the Yankees but rather by staying with one franchise for his career, Harvey Araton of the New York Times writes.  Robinson Cano has the opportunity to be a one-franchise player if he re-signs with the Yankees this offseason and Longoria believes Cano will stay because the Yankees are always looking to contend.  “I’m sure Robby realizes that his organization is never going into a year saying they are rebuilding,” Longoria said. “You can’t not like that, or respect that.”
  • Unless David Ortiz goes on the DL over the next four days, the Red Sox slugger has stayed healthy enough to add an extra $4MM to his 2014 salary, ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes writes.  Ortiz the first 20 days of the season on the DL with his right Achilles injury but hasn't returned, so he is now guaranteed $15MM in the final year of his two-year contract with the Sox.
  • The Red Sox were Todd Helton's last opponent at Coors Field, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe notes that the Sox twice tried to acquire Helton from the Rockies.  A proposed 2002 blockbuster would've seen Helton and Larry Walker go to Boston in exchange for a trade package headlined by Manny Ramirez, and then in 2008 the Rockies turned down an offer of Mike Lowell for Helton straight-up.
  • The time has come for the Orioles to increase payroll and add the necessary remaining pieces to their contending roster, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun argues.

AL East Notes: Machado, Salty, Melky, O’Day, Roberts

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Orioles fans and fans all around the game were disheartened to see what looked to be a severe knee injury for ultra-talented third baseman Manny Machado in yesterday's loss to the Rays. Machado had an MRI today, and manager Buck Showalter told reporters, including MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli, that he's optimistic and confident Machado will be able to play with the team early next season. According to Ghiroli, the radiologist's early opinion of the MRI is that the injury wasn't as severe as it initially looked. Injuries were the story of the game for the O's, who also saw Alexi Casilla suffer a likely concussion after an outfield collision. Casilla, a soon-to-be free agent, is likely done for the season, according to Ghiroli. Here's more on the AL East…

  • Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) looks at the pending free agents who have boosted their value the most with strong 2013 seasons. Law feels that Jarrod Saltalamacchia of the Red Sox is the most likely candidate to sign an extension that will "shocK everybody" this offseason due to the scarcity of quality catching options. Law also lists Orioles' hurler Scott Feldman, noting he has a much-improved curveball and could sign a contract in the range of three years and $20-25MM. Last week, I predicted Feldman would sign for two years and $17MM, with Jeremy Guthrie's three-year, $25MM deal being his ceiling.
  • Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet looks at the left field position for the Blue Jays, which could be a position of need this winter if they decline the option on Adam Lind or trade him, putting Melky Cabrera in the DH spot. After breaking down the internal options, BN-S looks at external options which include re-signing Rajai Davis and making a play for the likes of David DeJesus or Corey Hart.
  • Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun shares the story of Orioles reliever Darren O'Day and his unorthodox background. O'Day, 31 in October, has a 2.19 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 67 relief appearances this season.
  • Brian Roberts knows that his time with the Orioles may be coming to an end, and he's trying to embrace the remaining time he has with the team, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. Roberts adds that he hopes 2013 isn't the end of his tenure in Baltimore but admits that he has o idea if he's in the team's future plans.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays

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In case you missed it, yesterday was a big day in the AL East. The Red Sox clinched the division, even if that had already become a foregone conclusion. Meanwhile, the Rays and Orioles churned through a record twenty-one pitchers in an epic, 18-inning contest that left Tampa in the driver's seat of the Wild Card race. Here are some notes on the division:

  • The Red Sox' turnaround exceeded even the team's internal expectations, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com. While the Sox pegged the likeliest outcome as an 86-win campaign, with an outside shot at a low-90's figure, Boston has already notched 94 W's with seven left to go. "I think we're all in a bit of shock," said team chairman Tom Werner. 
  • Speier provides a detailed explanation of how the team effected its dramatic turnaround, ranging from the return to form of several regulars (especially in the rotation), development of an impressive bench (including the DFA'd Mike Carp), and improved focus and chemistry. As Speier notes, the front office "nailed one bull's-eye after another while turning over roughly a third of its roster."
  • Under GM Ben Cherington, Boston has transformed its organization and with it the product on the field, writes Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. As with the Speier piece, you'll want to read the entire article, but the most interesting bits relate to the GM's philosophies. Approaching his post with a long-term focus, humble evaluative framework, and open mind, Gammons explains how Cherington has infused solid, hard-working pieces into the organization. 
  • Rotation stalwart Andy Pettitte's forthcoming retirement is yet another reminder that a Yankee era is ending, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. The team faces a wide array of roster challenges heading into 2013, says Knobler, with age and injury questions around the diamond, no attractive catching options, and a meager free agent market to play in. 
  • Of course, given the team's unequaled spending capacity, one is always loath to count out the Bronx Bombers. Indeed, GM Brian Cashman has navigated countless hurdles this season to deliver a contender, though the team is now highly likely to miss out on the postseason for just the second time in the last nineteen years. Looking ahead, the Yanks have relatively meager overall commitments in comparison to their historical $200MM+ payroll levels: $89MM in 2014 (six players, one buy-out); $68.1MM in 2015 (three players); $69.1MM in 2016 (three players); and $26MM in 2017 (one player, one buy-out). And that is before accounting for any dollars saved via the yet-to-be-finalized Alex Rodriguez suspension. Of course, those amounts do not account for a new deal for Robinson Cano, and it is looking increasingly likely that the team's long-term commitments may deliver little in on-field production.
  • The Blue Jays have long been the lone AL East team with nothing left to play for in 2013. The team's brass has already begun evaluating and planning for next year, reports Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. Addressing a reader question, Griffin says that the team has little reason to waste its energy pursuing star second baseman Robinson Cano, but could instead take advantage of salary coming off the books after 2015 to make a back-loaded offer to a free agent pitcher. 
  • Looking forward, Toronto has a heavily front-loaded set of salary obligations after carrying a franchise-high $119.3MM payroll on opening day this year. The Jays have the league's fourth-highest contract commitments for both 2014 ($110.5MM) and 2015 ($91.2MM), but are locked into a below-average $27.6MM in 2016. To back-load money to a free agent this offseason, however, would mean giving out at least a three- or four-year deal, and there do not appear to be many starters on the market that would warrant that kind of commitment.

Bidding For Alexander Guerrero “Wide Open” Again

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3:43pm: The Dodgers are no longer willing to pay Guerrero $32MM and may not pursue him at all, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal notes that the team's position may merely be strategic; they could be backing off that number simply so Boras doesn't use that as a baseline when negotiating with other clubs.

3:15pm: Just over a week ago, it seemed that Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero was close to signing a five-year, $32MM contract with the Dodgers. SInce that time, however, the 26-year-old has left his former agent, Rudy Santin, in favor of the Boras Corporation. Boras described the bidding as "wide open," writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, who reports that the Red Sox, Reds, Rangers and Giants all have interest in Guerrero and are fighting the Dodgers for his services.

MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez tweeted yesterday that Sanchez is looking for an overall better deal than the previously rumored agreement. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti wouldn't comment when asked by Heyman about the situation, stating that he wouldn't publicly discusss contract negotiations.

The Rangers seem a curious fit for Guerrero, with Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler and Jurickson Profar all already in the fold. The Reds would have to use him at shortstop or perhaps third base due to the presence of Brandon Phillips, despite the fact that many scouts have predicted Guerrero will have to transition to second base to play in the Majors. Boston has Dustin Pedroia at second base, and Xander Bogaerts projects as their long-term answer at shortstop. The Giants, too, are a curious fit with Marco Scutaro under contract, Brandon Crawford at short and Pablo Sandoval at third base.

Guerrero hit .290/.402/.576 with 21 home runs in 328 plate appearances in his final season inSerie Nacional. As Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports pointed out last January, Guerrero OPSed .997 or better each year in Cuba from 2009-11. Heyman points out that Guerrero could have an impact on Robinson Cano's market this offseason if bidding drags on and teams believe Guerrero to be superior to other second base options, as Guerrero will naturally be more affordable than Cano.

Red Sox Notes: Uehara, Cherington, Salty, Ellsbury

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Koji Uehara's run of 37 straight batters retired came to an end last night, falling eight men shy of Mark Buehrle's absurd Major League record of 45 consecutive batters retired. Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus breaks down Uehara's streak (with some help from Dan Brooks of Brooksbaseball.net), looking at several at-bats along the way and calculating that, based on the projected rest-of-season OBPs of the hitters that Uehara faced, the average pitcher has a 0.000056 percent chance of retiring those 37 batters consecutively. Here's more on the Red Sox…

  • General manager Ben Cherington may have gone 6-for-7 in terms of free agent signings this offseason, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman lists Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, David Ross, Jonny Gomes and Stephen Drew as wins, and that's not including the cheap pick-up of Mike Carp. Other teams are taking note of the blueprint, with one Mets official telling Heyman there's "a lot of merit" to Cherington's approach. Heyman points out that even with the $8MM worth of incentives to Napoli, the total free agent commitment of $108.2MM is about $17MM less than Josh Hamilton's contract on its own.
  • Ian Browne of MLB.com believes the Red Sox are probably more comfortable trying to retain Jarrod Saltalamacchia than trying to bring in a free agent or trade target to rebuild the excellent rapport that Saltalamacchia has established with the team's pitching staff.
  • Within that same Inbox piece, Browne speculates that the team likely isn't comfortable going to six or seven years for Jacoby Ellsbury as a free agent, having learned the hard way from the Carl Crawford contract.
  • Browne also writes that it's all but certain that the Red Sox will non-tender Andrew Bailey this offseason. Bailey earned $4.1MM this season and would've been in line for a slight raise via arbitration because he pitched well prior to being lost for the season due to injury once again. The team could still look to bring Bailey back at a reduced rate, but Uehara will be Boston's closer in 2014, Browne writes definitively.
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