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AL East Rumors: Johnson, Bautista, Granderson, Choo

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Yankees free agent Curtis Granderson joined Ken Rosenthal on MLB Network's Hot Stove to discuss his offseason thus far.  The outfielder told Rosenthal that the number one thing he's looking for is to sign with a winner.  More from the AL East..

  • With uncertainty over Alex Rodriguez and the future of Robinson Cano, the Yankees have contacted free agent Kelly Johnson, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Johnson has primarily played second base over the course of his career but he also offers experience at left field and saw some time at third base in 2013.
  • It's not a huge surprise, but teams are inquiring on Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (on Twitter).  Whether they are willing to move him is another story.
  • Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Beltran are targets 1 and 1A for the Yankees, a person familiar with their thinking tells Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  Fellow outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury sits a hair behind the other two stars.
  • Bryan Hoch of MLB.com (on Twitter) also hears that the Yankees are serious about their pursuit of Beltran.
  • Former Red Sox pitcher Alfredo Aceves is working out in Mexico and drawing interest from multiple teams, tweets Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.
  • The Blue Jays' priority is improving the rotation, but they're also keeping an eye out for help at second base and catcher, writes Heyman.  It's no surprise to hear that they're interested in Robinson Cano, but his price tag will probably prove to be too much since they need to direct their bucks towards starting pitching.
  • Alex Speier of WEEI.com explains why Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, and Stephen Drew all turned down the $14.1MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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After a last place finish in 2012, a heralded offseason helped bring the Red Sox a World Series title in 2013.  What can the Sox and GM Ben Cherington do for an encore this winter?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

Other Payroll Obligations

A winning strategy always draws imitators, and there's no doubt many clubs took note of how the Red Sox returned to prominence after eschewing big-ticket moves in favor of less-expensive and more measured free agent signings in the 2012-13 offseason.  Adding the right mid-tier free agents can definitely help turn a 69-game winner into a World Series champion in one offseason — just as long as you have the likes of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz already on your roster and they all make big rebounds from down seasons.  While the free agents, improved team chemistry, and addition of John Farrell as manager unquestionably helped, Boston's worst-to-first title run isn't as much a case of a bad team suddenly becoming great as it was a good team getting back on track after a Murphy's Law season in 2012.

The strength of the Sox core is illustrated in their list of guaranteed contracts and the four arbitration-eligible players likely to be tendered contracts.  Those 16 players account for just under $128MM in payroll and only three are guaranteed money beyond next season.  This gives the Red Sox tons of flexibility in filling their few holes, whether it's re-signing some key players, taking on a big salary in a trade or making more forays into free agency.  While their core is strong, the Sox aren't afraid to shake things up in order to make the roster even stronger over the long run.

Let's start with Ellsbury, Boston's biggest internal free agent case.  The Red Sox made at least two attempts to lock up their center fielder before he hit the open market, and now Ellsbury heads into free agency wearing another World Series ring and coming off a .298/.355/.426 season that included nine homers, 92 runs scored and a league-best 52 stolen bases.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes ranks Ellsbury second on his free agent power rankings and recently guessed that Ellsbury and agent Scott Boras could find a contract in the $150MM range. 

If the bidding goes that high, Boston could be out, as the club is reportedly unwilling to greatly exceed the $100MM threshold for Ellsbury.  I'd still consider the Red Sox as the favorites to sign Ellsbury but it wouldn't be the first time that Boras has scored an inflated contract for one of this clients.  If a team (or teams) push the bidding past $125MM, expect Ellsbury to be playing in another team's uniform in 2014.  It's not that Boston couldn't afford such a contract, but in the wake of the Carl Crawford deal, the Sox are wary about paying a speed-based player big dollars into his 30's.

If Ellsbury leaves, the Sox could give Jackie Bradley a chance at the center field job.  Bradley (a consensus top-40 prospect in preseason rankings from MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law) has put up big minor league numbers and could join Will Middlebrooks and Xander Bogaerts as the latest homegrown prospects to step into the Boston lineup.  Bradley could be used in a platoon to begin with, and the Sox could look for a right-handed hitting CF in the mold of a Rajai Davis or a Reed Johnson to add to the outfield depth chart.

Napoli has said he wants to return to Boston, and a reunion could happen if a three-year/$42MM contract is indeed Napoli's price.  There have been rumors, however, that the club isn't keen on giving Napoli three guaranteed years and Boston's pursuit of Jose Dariel Abreu could be a sign that the Sox are ready to move on from Napoli.  Mike Carp dominated right-handed pitching in 2013, though his less-impressive career splits indicate that the Sox would probably prefer to keep Carp as a part-timer rather than a semi-everyday first baseman. 

First base is a relatively easy enough position to fill that the Sox might prefer the compensatory first round draft pick that they would receive if Napoli signs elsewhere.  Stephen Drew, similarly, might not be as valuable to the Sox as a first-round pick, since the presence of Bogaerts and Middlebrooks on the left side of the infield makes Drew's return problematic (barring some position juggling).  Since Drew will draw attention from several shortstop-needy teams, my guess is the Red Sox will move on. 

While Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew received qualifying offers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia did not.  He could be re-signed but a slugging catcher who isn't tied to any draft pick compensation will surely draw a lot of attention from other teams, and another club could very well give him a four-year contract (Boston is reportedly willing to give "Salty" as many as three guaranteed years).  The Red Sox are, however, a team that could be well-positioned to sign Brian McCann.  Boston would have to surrender their first round draft pick (30th overall) to sign McCann but that's no big loss since the club could gain as many as three compensatory picks if Ellsbury, Napoli and/or Drew left.  A five-year, $80MM contract would allow the Sox to install McCann behind the plate for a few seasons until Ryan Lavarnway, Blake Swihart or Christian Vazquez emerges as a catcher of the future, and then McCann could become a DH…provided that the ageless Ortiz isn't still mashing, that is.

Elsewhere around the diamond, if Drew leaves, the Sox are a good bet to sign a veteran infielder who can play either third or shortstop if Bogaerts or Middlebrooks struggles.  The Daniel Nava/Jonny Gomes platoon worked out well in left field and should continue, while it will be business as usual for the trio of Pedroia, Ortiz and Shane Victorino.  It could be argued that Boston's offseason really began when they managed to lock up Pedroia to a below-market extension in July, a move that should aid the Sox payroll for the better part of the next decade.

The team boasts strong rotation depth with Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront, Ryan Dempster and younger arms like Brandon Workman, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa in reserve.  If that wasn't enough, the Sox have checked in on free agent starter Tim Hudson, which would seem to hint that one or more of the current starters could be moved in a trade.  The Red Sox could sell high on Lackey, or perhaps deal Peavy following his postseason struggles.  Dempster would probably be the preferred candidate to deal given rough 2013 season, age (36) and $13.25MM salary.  Boston could try to mine trade value from his durability and home/away splits to prove that Dempster could pitch better in a friendly environment than Fenway Park.

Lester would be an even bigger trade chip if the Sox wanted to really make a splash, and we know that Lester was shopped to the Royals last offseason following his disappointing 2012 campaign.  While Lester could bring back a huge return, it's more likely that the Red Sox will look to extend the southpaw given his return to form in 2013 with a strong regular season and outstanding playoff run.  No talks have yet taken place about another multiyear extension, though the Sox already made the easy call of picking up Lester's 2014 option.

Koji Uehara easily passed the 55-game plateau that caused his 2014 option to vest, and his emergence as a lockdown closer makes his $4.5MM salary for next season seem like a bargain.  Uehara's dominance solved a lot of problems in the Sox bullpen though there will be holes to fill as Andrew Bailey will likely be non-tendered and Matt Thornton's option has already been declined.  Joel Hanrahan could be re-signed to a low-cost deal since the former closer missed almost all of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Between a surprise World Series win, their talented veteran core and the minor league system with the best short-term potential of any in baseball, these are heady times for the Red Sox.  It's probably too much to expect everything to again work out for the franchise in 2014, just as it was pessimistic to presume that things would continue to spiral downward following the disastrous 2012 season.  If the team does even as half as good a job filling their holes as they did last winter, however, expect more postseason action at Fenway Park.

Quick Hits: Santana, Red Sox, Kuroda, Cano, Bay

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Even with the high cost of free agent pitching, Ervin Santana's hopes for a $100MM contract seemed a little far-fetched…or are they?  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looked at the binder of information that agents Bean Stringfellow and Joe White prepared about their client and saw a wealth of favorable statistics in Santana's favor, noting his durability, good health, and even comparisons to Zack Greinke.  MLBTR's Steve Adams only predicted a five-year, $75MM deal for Santana on the open market but it only takes one team to make a leap. 

Here's some news from around baseball…

  • Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said that the team has "real interest at different levels" in re-signing its six free agents, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports.  Cherington has "had conversations" about bringing back Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joel Hanrahan and John McDonald, though Abraham reports that the team has most extensively discussed a new deal with Napoli.
  • The Red Sox aren't expected to make acquisitions during the GM meetings this week, Cherington said.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman has "no idea" if Hiroki Kuroda is interested in returning to the club, Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger reports.  “My conversations with his agent, the only information I’ve gotten from that is he hasn’t made any decisions, what he wants to do as far as next year’s concerned," Cashman said.  Kuroda has been rumored to be weighing re-signing with the Yankees, pitching in Japan or retiring, though a return to southern California to be closer to his family probably isn't out of the question either.
  • Robinson Cano's next contract might not meet his expectations simply because the Yankees are the only team with the need and finances to come close to his demands, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News writes.
  • Jason Bay isn't sure if he will play in 2014, Sportsnet.ca's Shi Davidi tweets.  The 35-year-old Bay was released by the Mariners in August and only has a .688 OPS in 1361 PA over his last four seasons, most of which were shortened by injury.
  • Agent Barry Praver said that his clients Manny Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano were hoping to again play in the Major Leagues, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links).  Ramirez is staying in shape and would be open to playing in Japan, while Zambrano is pitching in the Venezuelan winter league.
  • Wily Mo Pena is expected to re-sign in Japan, Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith reports (Twitter link).  Pena signed a two-year, $5MM deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks following the 2011 season and enjoyed a big 2012 before suffering through an injury-plagued 2013 campaign.  Nicholson-Smith notes that Pena had interested suitors in both Japan and North America.  Pena turns 32 in January and hit .250/.303/.445 with 84 homers in 1845 career PA with the Reds, Red Sox, Nationals, Diamondbacks and Mariners from 2002-11.

Qualifying Offer Decisions

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13 free agents received qualifying offers a week ago, and I think they are all likely to decline by today's 4pm central time deadline.  If these players sign Major League deals elsewhere, their old teams stand to gain a draft pick in each instance.  The latest:

AL East Notes: Wieters, Yankees, Red Sox, Granderson

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Even though Matt Wieters and agent Scott Boras aren’t eager to agree to a contract extension, the Orioles shouldn't consider dealing their star catcher, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggested over the weekend that the O's could seek to move Wieters and target a replacement such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but Dubroff says that it's premature to consider such a thing.  Changing catchers on a young pitching staff is probably a bad idea and with Wieters under control through 2015, there shouldn't be any real rush to trade him if he doesn't agree to a new deal.  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • The Yankees have already opened dialogue with agents at the GM Meetings, according to Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (via Twitter).  Our own Steve Adams will be checking in live from Orlando, Florida to give us the latest from the proceedings.
  • The Red Sox are on the hunt for a semi-reliable late-inning arm, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.  With Andrew Bailey likely sidelined for the first few months of the season, Boston could use another veteran to bridge the gap to closer Koji Uehara.
  • A person in the know tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) that he has yet to hear word of any of the players holding a qualifying offer accepting.  There has been some question as to whether Curtis Granderson might accept the Yankees' offer, but he seems likely to find a multi-year deal elsewhere.

East Notes: Beltran, Mets, Lackey

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There have been rumblings that the Red Sox have interest in signing Carlos Beltran, but the New York Post's Joel Sherman points out that there's a problem with that idea. Beltran's knee injuries mean he probably needs to move to the American League so he can play DH at least some of the time. But if he did so in Boston, he'd be getting in the way of David Ortiz. They could play Ortiz at first base a bit more frequently, but they would prefer not to given Ortiz's advanced age (and, presumably, his defensive deficiencies). They could also sign Beltran to play him for about 130 games a season in the outfield, but that raises the question of whether they would prefer to sign Beltran to a big-ticket contract to have him be, essentially, a part-time player. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • The Mets will meet with Scott Boras this week to discuss the possibility of signing Shin-Soo Choo and/or Stephen Drew, Newsday's David Lennon tweets. Lennon also notes that if the Mets acquire a new shortstop, one possibility for Ruben Tejada, who was disappointing in 2013, might be a move to second base. It's unclear what such a move might mean for Daniel Murphy, who was one of the Mets' better position players in 2013.
  • If the Braves lose Tim Hudson via free agency, they could do worse than to look into John Lackey of the Red Sox, the Atlanta Journal Constitution's David O'Brien tweets. The Red Sox have Lackey signed for $15.25MM in 2014. They also have an option on his services for 2015 at a league-minimum salary, thanks to a contract clause that gave the Sox an extremely cheap option if Lackey's existing elbow injury caused him to miss significant time. After a strong season in 2013, two years and $15.75MM looks like a bargain, which means Lackey should have significant value if Boston chooses to deal him.

Cafardo On Trumbo, Ethier, Kemp, Arroyo, Red Sox

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe offers up a primer for this week's GM Meetings.  Cafardo's first rule for the meetings is to never believe a GM when he says that a player will not be traded.  New Marlins GM Dan Jennings has said that Giancarlo Stanton won't be moved, but everyone has a price.  Cafardo also cautions not to buy into the notion that the Tigers won't find a way to enhance the team and also keep Max Scherzer after next season.  Here's more from today's column..

  • If the Red Sox don’t re-sign Mike Napoli, the 27-year-old Mark Trumbo will be on their list of players to pursue.  Trumbo, who would come at half Napoli’s price, is under club control until after the 2016 season and boasts tremendous right-handed power.  The Angels could use a third baseman and a pitcher and Cafardo wonders if Will Middlebrooks and Felix Doubront might suit them. The Pirates and Rays could also be fits for the Halos slugger.
  • One or both of Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp could be dealt this offseason thanks to the Dodgers' surplus.  The Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, and Blue Jays are among the clubs that could have interest.
  • The Phillies are among the clubs that have shown interest in Bronson Arroyo, but no offer has been made just yet.  The Giants and Twins have also been reported to have interest in the durable veteran, but none of the interested teams have put an offer on the table just yet.
  • While the Blue Jays have other priorities, they’ll also dip into the outfield market if they feel Melky Cabrera can’t give them what they expected.  Cabrera recently had a spinal tumor that was causing him leg pain removed.
  • Despite having a glut of pitchers, the Red Sox are still high on Tim Hudson.  To make room for the 38-year-old, the Red Sox could move Jake Peavy or Ryan Dempster if they have to.  However, teams seem more interested in John Lackey since he'll earn the minimum salary in 2015.  A clause in Lackey's contract called for him to get the minimum in '15 if he underwent Tommy.John surgery.
  • The Red Sox probably won't offer more than a couple of years to retain Stephen Drew with his market rapidly expanding.  The Yankees could be a fit with Derek Jeter being in the final year of his contract and likely to see more DH time.
  • A few GMs are already lamenting the cost of free agent pitching with possible $80MM-$100MM price tags on the likes of Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco.  That's why the Yankees' pursuit of Masahiro Tanaka, a potential No. 2 starter, makes more sense than paying big bucks for a No. 3 or 4 type.
  • The Blue Jays picked up Adam Lind's option, but don't be surprised if Toronto tries to move him.

Red Sox Notes: Drew, Victorino, Pierzynski

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The Red Sox might not be able to re-sign Jacoby Ellsbury and while they could move Shane Victorino over to center and find a new right fielder if he goes, John Tomase of the Boston Herald says that it's probably not in the cards.  After the Flyin' Hawaiian captured a gold glove in right field, Boston is more likely to seek help in center than shift Victorino over.  Her'e's more out of Boston..

East Notes: Braves, Phillies, Mets, Rays, Red Sox

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Matt Eddy at Baseball America has a nice writeup on recent minor league transactions, noting that the Braves use various pro scouting channels to amass cheap bullpen talent. Recent additions to the team's 40-man roster include 29-year-old Wirfin Obispo, who was signed as a minor league free agent in 2012 and reaches the upper 90s with his fastball. The Braves also added lefty Ryan Buchter, whom they acquired in 2011 in a trade for another minor league arm. Buchter, 26, was one of just four pure relievers in the minor leagues in 2013 to record 100 strikeouts. Here's more from baseball's Eastern divisions:

  • Jim Salisbury of Comcast Sportsnet examines free agents Edward Mujica and Joaquin Benoit as potential eighth-inning options for the Phillies. The club may be looking for a setup man again after last winter's acquisition, Mike Adams, missed much of 2013 with shoulder surgery.
  • Marc Carig of Newsday offers an early look at the Mets' strategy in free agency. With more than $40MM in payroll space opening up this offseason, the Mets could be major players, and a club official tells Carig that only Robinson Cano will be too expensive. With holes in the outfield, at shortstop and in the rotation, the team also figures to be active in trade discussions, Carig writes.
  • David Wright is working to sell free agents on the Mets, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York reports. "I’ve talked to a few players, but I expect I’ll do more of it as we have a better idea of who we’re going after," Wright says. The star third baseman adds that he doesn't believe players are concerned about the club's financial situation, though Matt Harvey's Tommy John surgery has emerged as a topic.
  • Rays GM Andrew Friedman tells the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin that the team remains in the early stages of its offseason planning. "I think every October and into early November we're overwhelmed and not feeling all that confident that we'll be able to execute on our plan, and this year is no different," Friedman says. The Rays are expected to listen on lefty David Price this offseason and must also address openings at first base, DH and closer.
  • Writing for WEEI.com, Alex Speier says the Red Sox's decision not to extend Jarrod Saltalamacchia a qualifying offer likely stems from the fact that the team couldn't risk three players accepting the one-year, $14.1MM deal in the same offseason. The Sox ultimately opted to extend the offer to Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury, with Ellsbury expected to decline. Speier provides a breakdown of the Sox's 2014 payroll, concluding that Boston likely has around $32MM to spend.

 

AL East Rumors: A-Rod, Yankees, Orioles

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Free agent reliever Mark Hendrickson would like to return to the Orioles organization in 2014, but he doesn't know where he'll wind up this winter.  "Obviously, I'd love to get his feedback from an organizational standpoint," Hendrickson told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. "I'm very happy with the opportunity they gave me last year. I don't know what's going to happen moving forward. I've got to be open to everything. I obviously have a connection with the Orioles. I love the organization, love where it's been going. But to determine what will happen, it's hard to say sitting here in November – what their thoughts are, how everything unfolds, what's going on."  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • Attorneys for Major League Baseball accused  Alex Rodriguez of “a brazen attempt to circumvent the ongoing arbitration process” in a motion filed Friday to dismiss the Yankees third baseman's lawsuit against MLB and commissioner Bud Selig, write Ken Davidoff and Rich Calder of the New York Post.
  • The Yankees announced yesterday that they are bringing back their entire coaching staff.  That means that key figures such as pitching coach Larry Rothschild, bench coach Tony Pena, and hitting coach Kevin Long will return for another year in pinstripes.
  • The Yanks will face tough competition for players on their free agent wish list this year, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News reports. "[T]his isn’t going to be like 2008 when [GM Brian Cashman] was able to blow everyone out of the water" by committing $423 million to CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, Madden writes. The Yankees are expected to battle with the Tigers, Rangers, Red Sox and Mets for players that include Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Grant Balfour, Jhonny Peralta and Masahiro Tanaka.
  • The Orioles are expected to hire Braves special assistant Dom Chiti as their bullpen coach, industry sources tell Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

Aaron Steen contributed to this post.

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