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Free Ron Villone

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Sure, Barry Bonds is chasing the all-time home run mark set by Hank Aaron, and yes, the Brewers of all teams have the best record in the National League.  Those are all interesting stories, but today, the baseball-world’s attention will be focused on… Ron Villone?!?

It seems as if the 37-year old veteran left-hander has a clause in his contract that calls for the Yankees to grant him free agency if he is not on the big-league roster as of today.  Given his handedness and the fact that he has a 1.90 ERA, 10.72 K/9 and a 0.00 HR/9 in 22 2/3 innings of work in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he is sure to draw some interest.  It is possible that the Yankees could simply release him or, they could wisely try to trade him rather than just letting him walk for nothing in return.

Any number of teams could use Villone’s services, and naturally, the Phillies are expected to be among them.  Speaking on condition of anonymity in order to avoid tampering issues, one "Phillies baseball man" said, "Would he make us better? I sure think he would."

The Phillies relief situation has been desperate all season, but of particular importance right now is someone who can pitch with his left arm and actually get people out.  Manager Charlie Manuel is committed to the idea that the only way to get a left-handed batter out is to use a left-handed pitcher, however, Matt Smith and Fabio Castro have both failed miserably.

If you listen closely here in Philly, you can just barely hear the chants in South Philly… "Free Ron Villone, Free Ron Villone!"

Perhaps the Yankees would take C.J. Henry and Matt Smith back [written with tongue inserted firmly into cheek].

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".  Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.

The Abreu Option

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Bobby Abreu is really struggling this year – he’s hitting just .250/.325/.309 in 136 ABs.  Even his occasionally Bondsian walk rate is down around 10%.  The Yankees are paying him $15MM this year, and have a $16MM option with a $2MM buyout for 2008.

In my 2008 Club Options post a couple of weeks ago, I voted that the Yankees would decline the option.  At that point I was ignorant to the buyout price, however.  It’s more like a $14MM decision, and that’s a bit more palatable.  If Abreu was on track for a line around .290/.420/.450, I think it’s an easy choice to exercise.  Commenters in the earlier post leaned towards the Yanks exercising it but then looking to trade Abreu.

Since we still have 80% of the season to go, it’s much too early to call.  But if Abreu plays to his 25th percentile PECOTA – .263/.372/.413 – he’ll join the ’08 free agent class.  Does his slow start change your opinion on the option?

Clemens Chooses Yankees

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No more debating or Hendricks emails – Roger Clemens will be a Yankee in 2007.  He made the announcement today at Yankee Stadium during the seventh inning stretch.  He’s signed a minor league contract with New York and should be pitching in the bigs by June 1 at the latest.  According to Peter Gammons on Sunday Night Baseball, the Yanks offered Clemens $28MM for the season and the Red Sox $18MM.  Both figures are pro-rated, and the Red Sox were hoping to have Clemens start in late June rather than late May.  I’m surprised the Sox wouldn’t top $3MM per month.

Peter Abraham has additional details: the Yanks first offered Clemens $25.5MM in Spring Training, wanting him at that time.  Abraham says a 2007 debut in the first week of June seems likely, and a commenter at his blog makes an educated guess of June 8th against the Pirates at Yankee Stadium.

Clemens is a player worth five wins by himself in just half a season, if you are a proponent of WARP.  And I don’t mean pitching wins – I mean wins in the standings for the Yanks above what a replacement level guy, say Darrell Rasner, would provide.  What was at one point a laughable starting rotation for a team with such a huge payroll will become the following in a month and change:

Clemens
Pettitte
Mussina
Wang
Hughes

The Yankees are currently 13-15, 5.5 games behind the Red Sox.  The wild card still isn’t the most attainable alternative, with the Indians and Tigers both playing .620 baseball.

Lieber For Farnsworth?

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At this point, the rumor appears more speculation than actual confirmed talks between the Yankees and Phillies.  But plenty of folks see the logic in a Jon Lieber for Kyle Farnsworth swap, including Peter Abraham.

The Yankees find themselves with a rotation of Mussina, Wang, Pettitte, Igawa, and pray for rain.  Pavano, Hughes, and Karstens are all hurt.  Igawa is in the rotation mainly by necessity.  Brian Cashman can hold out, hope for a Roger Clemens rescue.  Or he can find some sort of reinforcement now.  Is Lieber the answer?

Has the Lieber of old returned?  It’s only been three starts.  Lieber’s 6.27 hits per nine isn’t sustainable; a 1.7 K/BB is low for him.  And let’s not forget how different it is to face the Red Sox as compared to the Nationals.  I know beggars can’t be choosy, but we also can’t wishcast the current version of Liebs is the same as ’04.

The Yanks’ bullpen is pitching OK with a 3.97 ERA so far.  Farnsworth has had a rough 9.1 innings in the early going, but I’m not sure he’s expendable.  Brian Bruney and Mike Myers have been solid, but that’s about it.  The Yanks owe Farnsworth $10.75MM for 2007-08.

Meanwhile in Philly, Tom Gordon flew back to have his shoulder checked.  That increases the need for Brett Myers in the pen, but trading Lieber would further weaken the rotation.  I agree with Tom that the Phils should stand pat.  Or at least acquire relief help without trading away key parts of the team.  Remember, Lieber was expendable back when Myers was starting, Adam Eaton seemed tolerable, and Gordon was somewhat healthy.  All of those things have changed.

Time For Yankees/Phils Rumors?

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With the Yankees struggling so much to assemble a healthy five-man rotation, it was only inevitable that rumors will begin to surface about a trade between the Yankees and Phillies, given the latter’s surplus of starting pitchers and Brian Cashman’s regret a few years ago at letting Jon Lieber get away.

Not only does Philly have six starters on the big league roster, but J.A. Happ — another lefty — has been dominating International League hitters (2.05 ERA, 10.23 K/9, .194 BAA) providing the appearance of organizational depth when it comes to starting pitching.

But unless the Phillies get a deal that is decidedly in their favor, it’s hard to believe they can afford to move a starter.  The reassignment of Brett Myers to the bullpen has coincided with the team’s stretch of good play, and Freddy Garcia is still struggling to move the radar gun above 90.  While Happ has been good, he’s also walked 13 in 22 innings.

The bottom line is that the Phillies’ depth at starting pitching isn’t as strong as it appears on the surface.  And since the team is winning, perhaps the Phillies shouldn’t fix what ain’t broke.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".

Torre Could Be Fired

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The big story in baseball today, though not a trade rumor, is that manager Joe Torre could be fired if the Red Sox complete a sweep of the Yankees this weekend.

One can question some of Torre’s behavior through the year, as with most managers. But to fire him in April is just silly and reactive.  Typical theatrics.  The Yankees’ 5.94 starter ERA is the second worst in the league.  Torre didn’t cause this.  Torre didn’t sign Kei Igawa, and he probably didn’t decide to give Chase Wright two starts instead of Phil Hughes.  He didn’t cause the injury to Mike Mussina, and it’s not his fault the Yanks were left with Carl Pavano as the Opening Day starter.

The Kei Igawa contract was pretty dumb from the start, and Phil Hughes should’ve broken camp with the team.  I would’ve given him a taste of the bigs last September.  But as for Mussina and Wang having three starts between them instead of eight or nine, that’s just bad luck.  True, the Yankees didn’t have a ton of starting pitching depth to cover it.  The Angels and A’s did have that kind of depth, and it served them well so far.  That, again, is on Brian Cashman.

Miguel Cabrera’s Trade Preference

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Enrique Rojas’s April 20th article on Miguel Cabrera slipped under my radar, but he snagged some interesting quotes from one of the game’s best players.

Cabrera mentioned that if he was traded, he’d prefer to play with Albert Pujols on the Cardinals.  Now there’s a 1-2 punch to be reckoned with.  That’s Ruth-Gehrig-esque. Cabrera also said he wouldn’t like to play for the Yankees because of the rules.  Additionally, he wants to remain at third base and continue to improve his defense.

Cabrera won’t become a free agent until after the 2009 season.  His salary jumped from $472K in 2006 to $7.4MM after beating the Marlins in arbitration and setting a new first-year arb record.  If he and the Marlins go to arbitration again after this season, he’ll probably set another record by topping $10MM.  $12-13MM seems an appropriate reward.  Pujols made $14MM in his fifth season in ’06.

Cabrera is already taking up 24% of Florida’s payroll; it could reach 40% in 2008.  The trade bounty could be otherworldly; Hanley Ramirez/Anibal Sanchez could pale in comparison.  I don’t think the Cards have the players for a trade. 

Call Him Stay-Rod

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Just wanted to get in on the fun of using Stay-Rod in a headline.  If Mark Feinsand and George King can both use it, then so can I.  But now would be a good time to monopolize and trademark some future plays on Rodriguez’s nickname:

Gray-Rod (if his next contract extends him into his 40s)
Whey-Rod (if he is photographed sitting on a tuffet of some kind)
Betray-Rod (if he signs with Boston)
Delay-Rod (if he encounters J.D. Drew-like delays in completing his contract)

I really think Betray-Rod could get some back page mileage one day.

A-Rod Wants To Stay

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Said Alex Rodriguez today:

"I want to stay in New York, no matter what."

It’s amazing what this one historic month has done for Rodriguez.  As recently as March, Brian Cashman said an extension was not in the cards.  Is that still the case?  Would Scott Boras’s highest profile client really just ignore his out clause following perhaps an MVP season?

As you know, Rodriguez has three years and $81MM left on his deal after the 2007 season.  Texas is picking up $33MM of that tab, as far as I can tell after looking at the contract details.

According to PECOTA, the Yankees would be getting Rodriguez for $11.6MM less than he’s worth over the 2008-10 seasons.  I can see Cashman changing his tune and adding another two years to the contract in exchange for elimination of all the out clauses.  But if Rodriguez demands an additional $50MM+ for the 2011-12 seasons, all paid by New York, that might be too much.

By the way, expect no less than five articles tomorrow morning based on the above A-Rod quote.

 

Randy Johnson Trade Dissected

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Steve Gilbert of MLB.com gets an inside look at the Randy Johnson trade.  Originally, it was going to be a three-team deal where a mystery AL club would send a first baseman to the Yankees.  Perhaps it was Richie Sexson on the Mariners?

Johnson should make his season debut Tuesday against the Padres, Arizona’s main competition in acquiring him this winter.

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