Silva Rises To Top Of Free Agent Starter Market
About a year ago, the Twins were seriously debating whether to exercise Carlos Silva‘s $4MM option for 2007. After all, he’d posted a ghastly 5.94 ERA in 180 innings in 2006. His 246 hits allowed was among the highest totals in baseball that year.
What difference a year makes. Silva posted a solid 4.19 ERA in 202 innings, a performance more in line with his career marks. As a result he’s arguably the best available free agent starter this winter and stands to snag a contract of at least four years and $40MM (with no cost in draft picks). La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins want him back, and Bill Smith is already talking about the intangibles the team offers for him. The Twins may balk at even $8MM annually.
Neal notes that the Diamondbacks, Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies had interest in trading for Silva this summer. That pretty well sums it up. We can probably add the Reds to the mix. Looking at Nick Cafardo’s recent summary, the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Cardinals, and Dodgers all seek to add veteran starting pitching. Silva typically ranks in the top 20 for groundball rate, so he may try to avoid stadiums with artificial turf.
Rangers Rumors: DeJesus, Lamb, Millar
Evan Grant writes for the Dallas Morning News, but he posted this column at night. Go figure. He’s got some new info regarding the Rangers.
- As you know, the Rangers have had difficulty finding a long-term center fielder. That’s the main focus of this offseason. The team has already shown interest in Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand, the top center fielders available. Other free agents such as Andruw Jones and Mike Cameron appear to be in play as well. Grant’s trade candidates: Coco Crisp, David DeJesus, Mark Kotsay, and Carlos Beltran. We’ve speculated on DeJesus to Atlanta in the past. With DeJesus signed cheaply through 2011 and the market at the position robust this winter, it might make sense for Dayton Moore to wait a year to shop him aggressively.
- Grant adds that Jon Daniels is considering some affordable options for first base. They’ve already talked to Mike Lamb‘s agent and like Kevin Millar as well. Lamb came up through the Rangers’ system but was traded to the Yankees in ’04. Millar is under contract for ’08 but it’s in the $3-4MM range and the Orioles should be open to a trade. Grant says Ben Broussard could pique the Rangers’ interest if he’s non-tendered.
- Grant concludes with five Rangers whose names will be bandied about in trade talks: Gerald Laird, Vicente Padilla, Joaquin Arias, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Nelson Cruz. Salty’s not being shopped but Grant expects teams to ask. He proposes some kind of bad contract swap for Padilla – Jason Giambi, Richie Sexson, or Adam Eaton are named. I still think it’s funny the way Padilla crawled away from the brawl he started this year.
Schilling Names Targets
UPDATE, 10-31-07: Gordon Edes and Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe spoke to a Red Sox source who does not expect Schilling to return to the team. The Red Sox will offer an incentive-based contract. The source added that Tim Wakefield‘s option is likely to be exercised.
FROM 10/30/07:
Interesting. After Boston, Curt Schilling has 12 teams he’d consider pitching for in 2008. Here they are:
Indians
Tigers
Angels
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Dodgers
Padres
Diamondbacks
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Schilling had talked about the idea of going somewhere he could tutor young pitchers, like Tampa Bay. But it sounds like that idea is out and he wants to play for a contender. Not that the Rays can’t contend in ’08. I’m curious as to why the White Sox and Rockies were excluded, but who knows.
That’s a nice extensive list, so it should be fun if Boston passes. At a reasonable one-year commitment, any of the dozen should have interest no matter what their rotation looks like.
Iguchi Wants To Remain At 2B
According to Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies asked Tadahito Iguchi about re-signing to play third base in 2008. He said he wants to stay at second base, so he won’t be re-signing with the Phils. It was a creative thought by the Phillies given the weak market for third basemen.
Where might Iguchi land as a contender for the best free agent second baseman? The Twins, Mariners, Mets, and Rockies seem like possibilities.
Red Sox Rumors
The Boston Globe’s Gordon Edes has some mild hot stove chatter today.
- Tim Wakefield‘s $4MM option is likely to be exercised. There was some speculation a week ago that it could be declined, but no one really believed it. It’s still a bargain.
- Julian Tavarez‘s $3.85MM option is a borderline call, and Edes seems to think it will be declined.
- Nothing new with Mike Lowell – he wants to return, but the door’s open for the Phillies or Yankees if the Red Sox won’t pony up enough years.
- Most folks expect Curt Schilling to leave. But if he’s still up for one year and $13MM the Sox should do it.
- Mike Timlin will pitch again but it might be elsewhere. Timlin hasn’t been with another club since ’02, when he pitched for the Cardinals and Phillies.
- Matt Clement will depart. If his tryouts and MRIs come up clean and he can hit 90 mph there will definitely be teams offering him incentivized contracts. Here’s one I missed from a few weeks ago: the Padres may make a play for him. Tom Krasovic also throws Mark Prior into the mix for the Friars in that article. Back in December of ’04, Clement talked with the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Indians, and Blue Jays before signing with Boston.
Mariano Rivera To Test The Market
As you know, Joe Torre’s rejection of the Yankees’ weak offer may influence the thinking of Mariano Rivera. The Journal News’ Peter Abraham has more on that angle:
Just spoke to somebody I know who is tight with Mariano Rivera. He said that Mo is more determined than ever to test the market after the developments of today. Mo’s comment: “The Yankees are one of 30 teams now.”
Hank Steinbrenner has insisted Joba Chamberlain spend 2008 as a starter, heightening the Yankees’ need to make the best offer to Rivera. Ultimately I think they will. The guess from Jon Heyman was two years, $26MM plus an option year for 2010 for Rivera. He could probably get three years guaranteed on the open market.
Rivera doesn’t think he could bear to put on a Red Sox uniform, so maybe the Yankees are one of 29 teams. The Phillies plan to get in the mix for Rivera for sure.
Odds and Ends
More random rumors and reading material!
- Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver discusses Ryan Braun‘s undeniably terrible defense at third base, suggesting some interesting trade and signing permutations to get him into right field. Also note that Kevin Kouzmanoff is a butcher at third; maybe the Friars will be in the market for Mike Lowell this winter (a player they’ve expressed interest in in the past).
- Awesome headline for this Garrett Atkins article. Steve King discusses how the Phillies would be a fine fit for a trade, throwing the Dodgers, Twins, Angels, and Astros into the mix as well. Note that Atkins has a career line of .269/.344/.437 on the road and .336/.399/.528 at Coors.
- Sid Hartman is hearing that Walt Jocketty could end up in Baltimore.
- The Daily Herald’s Scot Gregor proposes some kind of Jon Garland for Bill Hall swap, or even a Carl Crawford acquisition by the White Sox. I don’t think the Sox and Rays match up too well for that.
- I thought he’d stay, but Joe Torre has turned down a one-year, $5MM offer from the Yankees. The proposal had another $3MM in incentives and a vesting option for 2009 if the Yanks won the ’08 World Series.
- It’s Hiroshima or MLB for Hiroki Kuroda. Apparently the Ms already have their eye on him. Paul Sullivan also said recently that the Cubs will be in the mix.
Odds and Ends: Wakefield, Guillen, Lowell
Some random rumorage not quite worthy of individual posts…
- Jeff Goldberg of the Hartford Courant speculates that Tim Wakefield could be making his final start for Boston tonight. With Wakefield, the Red Sox possess one of the most lopsided contracts in baseball history. They have a perpetual $4MM club option with him, one that never goes away until they decline it. But $4MM is nothing to the Sox, and Wakefield was certainly worth that much in ’07. They’ll exercise it.
- The Mariners were once close to an extension for Jose Guillen, but currently it’s on the backburner. Even if the team exercises his $9MM option, Guillen can and probably will void it. He’s going to want at least three years, $30MM. The Mariners could get by without him.
- Mike Lowell has more Philly connections than I realized. The Phils definitely seem like his second choice if the Red Sox let him go. I think the Phillies should just sign Mike Lamb and spend the excess money on pitching.
- Neal Huntington’s first move: a waiver claim of Kevin Thompson. It’s over now.
- Joel Pineiro gets a $500K signing bonus, $5MM in ’08, and $7.5MM in ’09. Originally he wanted to test the market, but he appreciated the Cardinals giving him a chance.
- John Schuerholz found Scott Boras’ suggestions obnoxious and idiotic. Also, Steve Phillips comments on the A-Rod/Mets situation back in 2000.
You’re The GM: Philadelphia Phillies
Randy Miller weighed in yesterday morning with his plan for the Phillies. The team has $23MM to spend, by his count.
He wants to sign Curt Schilling, David Riske, Mark Loretta, and Mike Cameron and also re-sign J.C. Romero. He also would ship Pat Burrell and Geoff Geary to the Angels for "two decent minor leaguers."
Well. Start with the good – I think most of us can agree that Schilling at $13MM is solid.
The bad: Riske’s $2.85MM club option for ’08 is very likely to be exercised by the Royals [Update: turns out the club option became a player option with 60 games. So he probably will become a free agent.] Loretta hit .287/.352/.372 this year, with a putrid .626 OPS after the break. Essentially swapping Burrell out for Cameron…huh?
What would I do? I’d make the same Schilling move, leaving me with $10MM. Then I’d tell Carlos Carrasco to start training as a reliever, because that’s his role in ’08. Rather than make a bunch of questionable three-year reliever signings, I’ll try to just get better at building a cheap bullpen. I’ll lure Leo Mazzone to Philly by topping his best offer by a million or two.
Noting that the Phils had the best offense in the league in ’08, I’ll just look for league average production at 3B (.280/.348/.456). Hello Mike Lamb for two years, $8MM. If Lamb forgets how to hit lefties again, I platoon him with Wes Helms. Betcha a dollar I get league average production out of that.
I’ll go with a Burrell/Victorino/Bourn/Werth outfield, no need to invest heavily in the free agents or trade Bourn.
Hey, I have $6MM left over (unless Mazzone gets greedy). I’ll use it on more pitching, you can never have enough. Maybe I’ll try to get two Cub retreads like Matt Clement and Kerry Wood. Maybe I’ll have my docs look at Bartolo Colon and see what he’s asking for. I’ll check in with Jason Jennings too. If nothing works out, I’ll sit on the money and make a trade in early June as needed. Voila, my team wins 90 games and doesn’t screw itself over for 2009-11.
BooSanta weighs in on Miller’s decisions here, if you want another take. So, you have $23MM. What do you do?
Schilling Open To Phillies
We learned yesterday that the Phillies have already had internal discussions about bringing in Curt Schilling. Schilling was asked about the possibility yesterday, and confirmed that Philly is on his "short list" assuming they’d want him back.
Schilling might be one of the few free agent buys this winter that actually works out. He turns 41 soon, so health is obviously a concern. With a 4.4 K/BB in 151 innings, his command is as amazing as ever. The commitment would be low-risk, probably one year at $15-16MM. And switching from the AL East to the NL – what pitcher wouldn’t love that? Just ask Ted Lilly. If Schilling and Cole Hamels could combine for 360 innings next year, the Phils would be in great shape.
Here’s the problem: the Phillies supposedly have $20MM to burn. Give a minimum $13MM of it to Schilling, and you fall short on Mike Lowell by at least $4MM. If the budget is truly that strict, perhaps this can be solved with backloading for Lowell. Keep in mind that both players’ first choice is still Boston.