Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bruce, Longoria
Yesterday Rob Neyer of ESPN.com wrote about the fates of Baseball America’s top two prospects, Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria. While Bruce start the season in the minors, Neyer notes that the Reds could be a playoff contender if Bruce and Joey Votto receive 1,000 plate appearances. On the other hand, a decision has yet be made on where Longoria will start the season. Neyer feels that the Rays may wish that Longoria was not playing so well in Spring Training. He thinks the Rays should forgo the potential savings of keeping him in the minors and buy some goodwill with the fans by showing them that the team is serious about winning.
Keeping top prospects in the minors to begin the season is likely to become a growing trend. Decisions in both of the above cases may at least in part be based on future arbitration and free agency eligibility. A team can delay free agency by just postponing a player’s debut a few weeks. And as arbitration figures continue to rise, team’s can delay the start of the arbitration clock by waiting until June to promote a prospect. Last season the Brewers accomplished this with their top prospect Ryan Braun by waiting until May 24th to promote him to the majors. In doing so, Braun will not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2010 season.
Let’s take a look at what is being written about Bruce and Longoria in the Blogosphere…
- Redleg Nation understands starting Bruce in AAA, but laments the idea of having Corey Patterson batting leadoff. They worry that this confirms the belief that Dusty Baker prefers veterans even if they are less talented.
- Red Reporter is split on the issue of Bruce noting that the issue is not as clear as we would like it to be. They also wonder if the Reds are staggering the debuts of their prospects so their arbitration and free agency clocks are also staggered.
- Bugs & Cranks wonders if the Reds had already decided Bruce’s fate even before bringing Patterson on board, for the sole purpose of delaying Bruce’s arbitration clock.
- At Fanhouse, Pat Lackey tries to justify the demotion of Bruce, noting that he may be better off developing under the tutelage of somebody other than Baker, getting more experience and delaying his arbitration clock.
- On the other hand, Eamonn Brennan of Fanhouse thinks any team not managed by Baker would have kept Bruce on the roster.
- Rays of Light notes that Longoria’s future teammates may not be happy if he is demoted. Rays of Light wouldn’t be happy with a demotion but they understand the reasoning.
- Outs Per Swing notes that if Longoria is demoted, Willy Aybar will start at third. They do not believe that Aybar’s recent hamstring issues will have an effect on the team’s decision regarding Longoria.
- Sports Indeed notes that Longoria is receiving a lot of playing time in the spring and wonders if this is an indication that he will be on the opening day roster.
- Rays Index predicts a May 26 debut for Longoria based on his arbitration clock.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Lofton Turned Down Two Offers
Kenny Lofton tells Ken Rosenthal, "age ain’t nothing but a number." However, he feels that his age (41 in May) is the reason he’s not getting offers he deems acceptable this winter. He’s turned down two offers: a minor league one from the Reds and a Major League one from the Rays in excess of $1MM.
Rosenthal suggests Lofton may retire, which would be a shame. I don’t think fans would think less of Lofton if he played for a million or two; most wouldn’t even know his salary. As a part-time player with suspect defense, does he really deserve more? Maybe it was last year’s $6MM salary that was out of line.
Lofton says his hands are tied. But the reality is that his pride, rather than a lack of interest in his services, could lead to his retirement.
Rays Considering Crisp?
We’ve seen Coco Crisp’s name connected to Tampa Bay’s outfield need before. Marc Lancaster tossed out the idea on Sunday. Today, Buster Olney writes:
The Rays are searching for an outfielder who can hit left-handed, and now that they have tried and failed to sign Kenny Lofton, they are also taking a look at Coco Crisp; Tampa Bay is loaded with a wide range of pitching prospects, so it would seem that Boston could find a fit if it wanted to make a deal.
The fact remains that at $11MM over the 2008-09 seasons, Crisp is too expensive to carry as a fourth outfielder. Using him in right diminishes his value, and the Rays probably don’t want to move B.J. Upton again. So this isn’t the perfect fit for Tampa Bay; they’d probably need Boston to eat some salary. The one pitcher I could see them sending over for Crisp is Edwin Jackson.
But then there’s still the same division factor. Does either team really want to risk improving the other? These aren’t your daddy’s Rays; this team could be more than a thorn in Boston’s side in 2008.
Stark’s Latest: Roberts, Fuentes, Lofton
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has a new blog post jam-packed with hot stove rumors.
- The Cubs are getting frustrated with the Brian Roberts situation, wondering if they’ll ever complete this trade. The Orioles are scouting players but still haven’t given the Cubs the names they crave. I got the exact same vibe from the source who told me Jose Ceda‘s inclusion was never proposed by the Cubs.
- The Tigers and Phillies are both hunting for bullpen help; Detroit’s sights are set higher than Philadelphia’s. Unwanted players such as Wes Helms and Brandon Inge aren’t in demand. And while Marcus Thames is desirable, he’s not enough to get Aaron Heilman from the Mets. Brian Fuentes, also a Yankees target, may be the best available reliever. But Stark says the Rox want a "high-upside young arm" for the southpaw.
- My own guess at some useful relievers who may be available: Damaso Marte, Joe Nathan, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, Huston Street, Alan Embree, Kevin Gregg, Jon Rauch, and Chad Cordero.
- Stark names the Cubs, Rays, and Mets as the teams looking for an extra outfielder. No deals appear imminent, though the Rays made an unsuccessful offer to Kenny Lofton. The Mets and Cubs are considering the same names we’ve heard for a few weeks now. The Cubs are in a holding pattern since they may get Jay Payton in a Roberts deal with Baltimore.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Rule 5 Draftees
Last year the Reds selected Josh Hamilton in the Rule 5 draft despite only 23 games above Single-A and only 15 games anywhere since 2002 (actually the Cubs picked Hamilton and traded him to the Reds the same day). Hamilton went on to hit .292-19-47 in 90 games. This year, 18 players were chosen in the Rule 5 draft (14 pitchers). These players must remain on the 25-man roster all season or be offered back to their original club for $25K. By my count, three players (Sergio Valenzuela, Lincoln Holdzkom, Jose Capellan) have already been offered back to their original clubs (Capellan was picked up on waivers by a third team during the process). Hamilton is the rare case of a position player sticking with his new club as it is far easier to hide a developing pitcher and still get him playing time in the bullpen than it is on the bench.While it is rare for position players to stick, we have already learned that the Cardinals may keep Brian Barton as a fifth outfielder. As opening day rosters begin to take shape, let’s take a look at what is being said in the Blogosphere about the chances for the Rule draftees.
- Tim Lahey (RHP, CHC/MIN): Bleed Cubbie Blue sees the Cubs working out a trade with the Twins that would allow them to send Lahey to AAA. In fact, they speculate that Lahey will be the PTBNL in the Craig Monroe deal.
- Evan Meek (RHP, PIT/TB): Bucs Dugout predicts that Meek will at least start the season with the Pirates before being offered back to the Rays.
- Randor Bierd (RHP, BAL/DET): Bird Brain projects Bierd to make the roster and hopes the O’s give him every chance to stick.
- Jose Capellan (LHP, CIN/BOS): Capellan was originally selected by the Giants but was just placed on waivers. The Reds picked him up (Rule 5 rules still apply) and Obsessive Giants Compulsive is surprised the Giants let him go.
- Sergio Valenzuela (RHP, CIN/ATL): Valenzuela was sold back to the Braves after not making a single appearance in a spring game. The Braves then traded Valenzuela to a team in the Mexican League. Which begs the question…Are "future considerations" from the Mexican League worth the $25K the Braves dropped to bring him back? Talking Chop finds the entire situation funny and is not surprised that Valenzuela did not stick with the Reds.
- Brian Barton (OF, STL/CLE): Cardinals GM is predicting Barton to be on the opening day roster with Juan Gonzalez starting the season in AAA.
- R.A. Dickey (RHP, SEA/MIN): Detect-O-Vision is infatuated with the knuckleballer but notes that Dickey "has a looooooooooong way to go".
- Steven Register (RHP, NYM/COL): Mets Fever thinks Register might actually stick by earning the final spot in the bullpen.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Odds and Ends: Dan Johnson, Baldelli, Soria
Let’s round up some linkage.
- Last Thursday I appeared on WVOX 1460 out of New York with Russell Mafes. You can download the file here (it’s about 12 mb and 16 minutes long).
- Jim Hendry is very candid about the Cubs’ desire to add a right-handed hitting outfielder who can handle center.
- Mike Sweeney‘s success and good health could mean Dan Johnson is on his way out of Oakland.
- Jim Salisbury says the Phillies might have taken Rocco Baldelli 15th in the 2000 draft instead of Chase Utley, if they’d had the chance. Would the Mets or Dodgers have taken Utley, then?
- Rany Jazayerli takes an in-depth look at Joakim Soria. Should the Royals give him a shot in the rotation later this year?
- On my fantasy baseball blog RotoAuthority I talk about the dropoff after the first five catchers.
Rays Likely To Fill Outfield Void Through Trade
According to Marc Lancaster, the Rays would prefer to fill their need for a fourth outfielder via trade as opposed to signing a free agent such as Kenny Lofton.
Lancaster notes the Rays are likely to offer one of their surplus of starting pitchers. The Rays have five pitchers competing for the final two spots in the rotation and two of those pitchers (Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel) are out of options. In addition Lancaster mentions that the Rays have a number of pitching prospects at AA and AAA that could be included in a deal.
The Rays would prefer a player that in addition to regular playing time in right field, can serve as a backup to center fielder BJ Upton. Lancaster lists several players that match this description including Juan Rivera, Reggie Willits, Coco Crisp, Reed Johnson and Ryan Freel. Ken Rosenthal previously said that Willits is untouchable, and Crisp and Johnson seem unlikely as trades rarely occur within a division. The Reds seem like the best fit of this group as they have been rumored to be active in the trade market this off-season for a starting pitcher.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Roberts, Horacio, Willits
Rumor guru and baseball insider Ken Rosenthal has a new column at FOX Sports. Let’s discuss.
- Rosenthal does not see the Cubs taking on the salaries of both Brian Roberts and Coco Crisp, even if they shed their Jason Marquis commitment. Roberts remains the focus.
- Horacio Ramirez‘s agent says seven clubs have already expressed interest in his client. Perhaps he meant to say 0.7.
- Rosenthal runs through many Rocco Baldelli replacement options for the Rays: Reggie Willits, Kenny Lofton, Gabe Gross, and Reed Johnson. Only Willits seems the perfect fit, and the Angels aren’t making him available. Willits and his .393 career OBP could be headed to Triple A.
- The Phillies are looking for middle relief help; Rosenthal suggests a possible match with Arizona. Or, how ’bout signing Bob Wickman? Is he officially retired?
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Barry Bonds
The biggest name remaining in the free agent market is one Barry Lamar Bonds. The most recent rumored destinations for the all-time home run champ have been the Rays, Mets and even Japan. The Rays say there was never any serious consideration and the Mets say they are not interested.
The biggest question mark concerning Bonds is whether his production at age 43 is worth the circus that follows, both in the clubhouse and in the media. Yesterday at my home base, Rays Index, I contacted Chone Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way, and creator of the CHONE projection system. Smith had used his projection system to predict that the final regular season standings. The Rays are projected to win 89 games and finish third in the AL East, based on a considerable improvement in pitching and defense. The Mets are projected to win 92 games.
In an effort to estimate Bonds’ on-field impact, we asked Smith to substitute Bonds into the Rays and Mets lineups and rerun his projections. With Bonds in the lineup, both the Mets and the Rays improved by 3 games in the standings and approximately 30 net runs (As an Angels fan, Smith kindly refused to run the same projection for the Mariners or the A’s, lest those teams start thinking Bonds is a good idea).
If the Rays are indeed an 87-89 win team (PECOTA projects 88 wins), then Bonds might be a difference-maker. While signing Bonds may indeed be a headache, the difference between 89 wins and 92 wins for the Rays could be the difference between the 2007 Brewers (just missed) and the 2007 Rockies (World Series). And the difference between 92 wins and 95 wins for the Mets could be the difference between the 2007 Mets (one game short) and the 2007 Phillies (one game not short).
To quote one commenter from Rays Index, "Media scrutiny is only hard if you suck. If you’re good, it’s fun."
Let’s take a look at what else is being said about Bonds in the Blogosphere…
If there is a topic you would like to see covered in "Baseball Blogs Weigh In" please let me know HERE.
- Squawking Baseball thinks the Angels could be a solid fit for Bonds.
- Baseball Musings will miss Bonds if he doesn’t play this year, and lists several teams that should consider signing him.
- Amazin’ Avenue explores "The Bonds Market" and express their desire for the Mets to sign the aging slugger, calling the apparent blackballing "disgraceful".
- Mike’s Mets doesn’t see Bonds as a clubhouse cancer and thinks he would be good for the Mets, but does not think he will fit from a financial perspective.
- Bugs & Cranks feels that the Dodgers would have a much better shot at winning the NL West if they signed Bonds.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Odds and Ends: Baldelli, Salcedo, Piazza, Rivera
Time for today’s linkage.
- RotoAuthority looks for some fantasy baseball sleepers at second base.
- Rocco Baldelli has a rare muscle condition that does not allow his body to recover after a short workout. He’ll hit the DL but won’t retire. The Rays will likely decline his option but maybe they’ll re-sign him at a lower price.
- The Indians are in the running for 16 year-old shortstop Edward Salcedo, but the Boras client remains unsigned.
- IGN has their own What Might’ve Been type series, and recently they took a look at the Mike Piazza trades of 1998. Haven’t heard much on Piazza these last few weeks.
- The Angels seem likely to keep Juan Rivera, as he could be their left fielder in ’09 and ’10.
- I’m been devouring The Worst Team Money Could Buy, a book by Bob Klapisch and John Harper chronicling the ’92 Mets. I am a bit too young to remember that team. It’s a hilarious look at that trainwreck, with all sorts of off-the-record quotes. You really get a feel for what it’s like following the Mets beat, too.