Needs and Luxuries: Cincinnati Reds
Next up in our Needs and Luxuries series, the Reds. I realize the timing of this series wasn’t ideal, doing a bunch and then tailing off. It’s something I can improve next time around, but it still seems people would like to see the remaining teams reviewed. Anyway, here’s how the Reds are set up:
C – Dave Ross
1B – Joey Votto/Scott Hatteberg
2B – Brandon Phillips
SS – Alex Gonzalez
3B – Edwin Encarnacion
LF – Adam Dunn
CF – Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper/Jay Bruce
RF – Ken Griffey Jr.
SP – Aaron Harang
SP – Bronson Arroyo
SP – Matt Belisle
SP – Homer Bailey
SP – Edinson Volquez/Johnny Cueto
Setup – David Weathers
Closer – Francisco Cordero
Needs:
The Reds had a middle of the pack offense in ’07, same as ’06. Last year the Reds had below league-average offense at catcher and third base. I think Encarnacion will be fine, so one need might be to upgrade over Ross behind the plate. Would it make sense to acquire Michael Barrett for peanuts, to see if he can return to form?
The Reds have enough depth in center field to stand pat. Even if Bruce needs a few more months in the minors, Freel can probably hold down the fort.
One could envision the ’08 Reds cracking 800 runs if everyone stays healthy in ’08, which would probably be top five in the league.
Not shockingly, the Reds’ big need is on the run prevention side. Let’s start with defense – they were third from the bottom in defensive efficiency in ’07. Maybe a bit more of Gonzalez will help on that front, but the Reds are mostly locked in with their position players. They are not in a position to give up offense for defense.
The Reds allowed 853 runs in ’07, 15th out of 16 NL teams. Their bullpen was awful and the rotation was below average. If the Reds push their runs allowed all the way down to 780, they’re still probably just an 83 win team. Now, if they get the runs allowed down to 750, that’s 86 wins. A dash of luck and they’re in the playoffs. To allow 750 runs would be league average or maybe a touch better.
Cordero helps the Reds’ previously terrible pen, but this rotation isn’t good enough to get to 750 runs allowed. The Mets were at the 750 level last year, the Dodgers the year before. You generally need three solid 30-start guys, not two and a bunch of question marks. The Reds have a huge incentive to get Erik Bedard – with him, they’re a playoff contender, without him they’re not. They are a team on the fringe, and Jon Lieber or Brett Tomko won’t push them over the edge. Add an ace, you can sniff 90 wins.
Dunn and Griffey might be gone after the ’08 season, and the Cordero signing was a win-now move. Jonathan Mayo wouldn’t give up Bruce for Bedard, but that might be the only way the Reds make the playoffs this year. It would be a huge gamble, and depends on whether the team is trying to win right now or in 2009-10. Can’t have both.
Luxuries:
Bruce isn’t really a luxury, since the team traded Josh Hamilton and their corner outfielders may leave after ’08. Trading near-MLB ready pitchers like Bailey and Cueto doesn’t help the win-now cause though. Six years of Bruce is a ton to surrender, but Bedard is the ace they need. A one-for-one offer should be seriously considered.
You could call guys like Hatteberg and Freel luxuries, but neither is going to net anything particularly useful.
Jonathan Mayo Discusses Bruce For Bedard
You’ve probably heard of Jonathan Mayo. He’s a prominent writer on MLB.com, focusing on the minor leagues more recently. Mayo recently wrote a book called Facing Clemens, which "puts you right in the batter’s box against the Rocket Man." Mayo finished the book before the steroid allegations surfaced, but it sounds like an interesting read regardless.
In the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that if you click the above Amazon link and buy the book, I’ll get 46 cents. Hopefully Mayo gets a better cut than that from his publisher!
Anyway, I asked Mayo a handful of questions for publication on MLBTR.
MLBTR: If you were Wayne Krivsky, would you trade Jay Bruce for Erik Bedard straight up? What players would you compare Bruce to? How does Bruce compare to Adam Jones?
Mayo: In a word, no. I wouldn’t trade Bruce for Bedard straight up. Frankly, and maybe I’m a little prospect-slanted, there’s not much I would trade Jay Bruce for. Not only is the guy going to be one of the game’s great hitters, he’s an outstanding individual who’ll represent the organization extremely well. I know that’s not the be-all, end-all, but Bruce is going to be a true ambassador for the game. He’s going to hit for average, get on base, hit for a ton of power, play good OF (eventually RF, but fine in CF for now), throw runners out, maybe even steal a few bases. It’s hard to come up with a good comparable, but I’ll go with Larry Walker. Maybe not quite as much speed, but it’s pretty close.
Jones is more of a prototypical five-tooler, who won’t hit for as much power right away. I think Bruce has more power potential than Jones, while Jones is likely a bit faster and will stay in CF.
Erik Bedard Rumors
Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider dug up "a few fresh nuggets" regarding the Erik Bedard trade discussions.
- The Mariners reportedly offered Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and George Sherrill for Bedard. Seems the Orioles want Brandon Morrow or Carlos Triunfel instead of Clement. One source of Churchill’s believes the Mariners would be more inclined to buckle and surrender Morrow than Triunfel. It’s even possible that the Orioles gave the Mariners a "final counteroffer" including one of the two and will move on if it’s rejected.
- Many Mariners fans believe Bedard is not even worth Jones straight up, so imagine how they’ll feel if the Orioles extract significantly more.
- The Orioles still want Jay Bruce from Cincinnati; otherwise they would ask for a ridiculous package of pretty much everyone else worth discussing in the Reds’ farm system.
Reds Have Preliminary Discussions About Blanton
We’ve heard the rumblings for some time. Now there’s word from the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay that the Reds have "had some preliminary discussions with Oakland about right-hander Joe Blanton." The Reds also made some kind of offer for Erik Bedard, but Fay admits that neither trade is likely to occur. That’s because the Reds won’t trade Jay Bruce and only want to part with one of Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto (though all three are very good prospects). Note that Billy Beane reportedly wanted Cueto in a Dan Haren deal.
Instead, the Reds are entertaining all sorts of second tier free agents. Wayne Krivsky runs a tight ship, so it’s tough to narrow down who the Reds have actually talked to. Fay implies that Livan Hernandez or Jon Lieber could be possibilities. We do know from previous reports that the Reds have shown interest in Lieber, Runelvys Hernandez, Brett Tomko, Josh Fogg, and David Wells.
Odds and Ends: Adam Jones, Weaver, Jocketty
You know how it works…random rumors and links to clear out my inbox.
- Adam Jones left winter ball early, perhaps as a prelude to a trade.
- The Cardinals’ interest in Jeff Weaver is "at best, tepid" according to Derrick Goold. However, Goold thinks they should bring him back.
- Walt Jocketty said on XM Radio: "I don’t want to be a GM again." I guess that settles that, Wayne Krivsky can rest easy.
- This is kind of funny. Mark Teahen on meeting Jose Guillen: "For the most part he didn’t rub me the wrong way – he seemed like a good guy." Hmmm….for the most part?
Astros Close On Runelvys Hernandez
Brian McTaggart of the Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros are close to a one-year deal with starter Runelvys Hernandez. Hernandez will turn 30 in April. He spent 2007 in Triple A with the Pirates, Yankees, and Red Sox organizations.
None of this seems terribly interesting, but the article also says Hernandez got on a strict training regimen. Now that he’s in shape, he’s reportedly hitting 97 on the gun (sounds like agent-speak to me). I’ll believe it when I see it. But Hernandez chose the right team in the Astros, as they’re hurting for starting pitching. It’s not a done deal yet; he’s having some last minute discussions with other clubs. McTaggart says the Rangers, Pirates, Phillies, and Reds have all shown interest.
Odds and Ends: Morneau, Jocketty, Santana
Your usual dose of random rumors and links…
- Justin Morneau says he has had no extension discussions with the Twins.
- The Reds brought Walt Jocketty aboard as a special advisor to President and CEO Bob Castellini today. For now, Wayne Krivsky’s job appears safe. But jeez, with Walt in the house he has to be feeling a little pressure, doesn’t he? In other news, the Reds talked with Brett Tomko‘s agent this week.
- The Tigers signed Matt Mantei for the league minimum. He can ask for his release if he’s not in the bigs by May 1st. As Jon Paul Morosi notes Mantei hasn’t pitched in the Majors for more than two years.
- RotoAuthority ranks the third basemen for fantasy baseball.
- Buster Olney says the A’s talks with the Braves for Mark Kotsay "have a chance of becoming serious today."
- Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has a source who believes the Mets will get Johan Santana "no matter what they have to do."
- The Rangers made the Eddie Guardado deal official, and also brought Jamey Wright back on a minor league contract. Guardado got a bit more than I expected – $2MM base plus $4MM in incentives for games pitched and finished.
Reds To Stand Pat On Rotation?
The Cincy Enquirer’s John Fay thinks the Reds are backing off on Erik Bedard as well as the second-tier free agent pitchers. He’s talked to some baseball people on the topic and believes the price is too high for the Reds in any case.
Honestly they’re not in that bad of shape with Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Matt Belisle.
Erik Bedard Mariners/Reds Rumors
UPDATE, 1-10-08 at 5:38pm: Churchill has further updated his right-hand sidebar referencing the Reds possibility. He says the O’s want Bailey, Votto, Cueto, and Edwin Encarnacion. This is particularly lopsided, and pushing Melvin Mora back to Cincy wouldn’t make it any less so. Mora may have negative value at this point. Meanwhile John Fay says nothing new has happened on the Reds/Bedard front.
UPDATE, 1-09-08 at 9:07pm: Rosenthal checks in with an update. If the Mariners would give up Chris Tillman, they could have a done deal. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranks the 19 year-old righty as Seattle’s second best prospect, giving him a number two starter ceiling. Rosenthal confirms that Jones is the centerpiece, while George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are in play.
Meanwhile, Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider says on the right-hand sidebar of this page that the Reds might step up their offer in an attempt to make a late play. He thinks they could give up Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and a fourth player, which would be absurd.
FROM 1-09-08 at 9:03am:
On Tuesday, both Ken Rosenthal and Jason Churchill carefully stated that the Orioles and Mariners were making progress on an Erik Bedard trade. The deal would center around Adam Jones but include other good young players as well. The Reds and Indians were named as other lingering Bedard suitors.
Larry Stone of the Seattle Times checked in on the Bedard situation today. His MLB source agreed that talks between the Mariners and Orioles have heated up. Andy MacPhail, however, would not use the words "heating up." Stone goes on to mention that the Mets "could be players" for Bedard in addition to the Ohio teams. Contrary to earlier reports, Stone was able to extract a quote from Ms GM Bill Bavasi that indicated Brandon Morrow was not off limits.
John Hickey admits that the rumors won’t die but doesn’t think the Mariners have made any actual progress on a deal. He agrees that Morrow seems a bit more available than he did before. Hickey suggests Josh Fogg could be a backup plan to Bedard for Seattle, noting that Fogg likes the idea of pitching in Safeco. The Reds are also believed to have interest in Fogg.
Reds Interested In Josh Fogg
According to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds are interested in free agent starter Josh Fogg.
The righty starter recently turned 31. As Fay notes, he made $3.625MM in 2007. He seems like he might seek three years and $21MM, just a guess. I don’t want to dog the guy but he is below average in most aspects of pitching – allows tons of hits and HRs, doesn’t strike people out. He’s a flyball pitcher too. He does have decent control, though. Not a great fit for the Reds, but it’s slim pickens out there.