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Prospect Rumor Roundup: First Half Disappointments

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We're just past the halfway mark of the 2013 Major League Baseball season and well past the midway point of the Minor League Baseball season. While taking stock of the top prospects from around baseball, a number of names appear in the "disappointment column," which is not surprising given the general volatility of young players. Below, we take a look at some of the prospects having disappointing seasons, as well as some educated guesses as to what might be ailing them.

Matt Barnes, RHP, Red Sox: Barnes' season hasn't been as bad as some of the other players on this list but it's still been a disappointing 2013 for the right-handed hurler. The former first-round pick was expected to zoom through the minor leagues and possibly even help the big league club this season, but he currently has a 5.32 ERA with 78 hits allowed in 67 2/3 innings at the Double-A level. As the Boston Globe's Julian Benbow explained, Barnes has been working on fleshing out his secondary pitches this season so he doesn't have to rely so heavily on his low-to-mid-90s fastball.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Indians: Bauer is the perfect example of the volatility of prospects. Selected third overall in the 2011 amateur draft, the right-hander out of UCLA dominated competition during his first taste of pro ball but the wheels fell off the wagon towards the end of 2012. Bauer's issues — both on and off the field — lead to an offseason trade and continued into 2013. His results at Triple-A have been less than ideal. After his most recent disastrous big league start, the young pitcher was returned to the minors and — according to a piece by Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon Journal — he may focus on pitching exclusively from the stretch as a starter.

Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Angels: Los Angeles doesn't have a very deep minor league system whatsoever so when their top prospects stumble, it hurts them more than most organizations. The young third baseman is hitting just .215/.280/.309 at Double-A this season and some adjustments he made during the springtime could be to blame for his slow start. As Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com explained, the switch-hitting Cowart quieted his stance and eliminated the leg kick from the left side of the plate. He's still hitting just .198/.261/.275 versus right-handed pitching so clearly there are more wrinkles to iron out.

David Dahl, OF, Rockies: Like Bauer, Dahl's value is down as a result of well-documented off-the-field actions and maturity concerns. But those aren't the only things that have gone wrong for the outfielder in 2013. In early May, Dahl suffered what was expected to be a pulled hamstring while running the bases. About a week later, though, the prospect revealed on Twitter that his hamstring had been torn and was much more serious than first reported. That halted his season after 10 games (He got off to a late start because of the maturity issues mentioned above) and he hasn't appeared in a game since that time. His timetable for a return to the game is still up in the air.

Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds: Hamilton, 22, hasn't had a terrible year but he has yet to build off of the momentum he created last season when he hit .323/.413/.439 in High-A ball and stole 155 bases between two minor league clubs. Promoted to Triple-A to begin 2013 after spending just 50 games at the Double-A level, the speedy Hamilton has struggled to find his footing at the plate. On the plus side, the shortstop-turned-outfielder has nabbed 50 bases in just 80 games. His stolen base total could become much higher once he improves upon his .300 on-base percentage.

Courtney Hawkins, OF, White Sox: Hawkins has experienced a lot of struggles in his first full professional season. After hitting a combined .284 between three levels during last season's debut, he's batting just .191/.273/.485 with 95 strikeouts in 55 games during 2013. Scott Merkin of MLB.com talked to Hawkins regarding the learning curve he's experienced in High-A ball and how he plans to come out ahead.

Bubba Starling, OF, Royals: Starling opened 2013 with huge expectations surrounding him, but he hit just .195/.263/.379 with a massive strikeout rate in April. As Danny Wild of MiLB.com explained, things got so bad that Starling was sent to have his eyes examined for possible LASIK surgery in May — similar to what the Rangers did with third base prospect Mike Olt. Dick Kaegel of MLB.com later updated the story to report that the outfield prospect underwent the procedure on May 16. In June, after the eye surgery, Starling improved to hit .250/.327/.369 for the month, but he continued to strike out at a similar rate. He also hit jut one home run in 24 games. Clearly, there is more work to be done.

Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Royals: During the first three months of the year, Zimmer posted an ERA of more than 5.00 despite showing the same strong repertoire that caused him to be chosen fifth overall during the 2012 amateur draft. Thankfully, the right-hander may have finally turned a corner in July. He's posted a 2.77 ERA with no walks and 20 strikeouts in 13 innings. On the season, he's now whiffed 103 batters in 84 2/3 innings of work. Jonathan Raymond of MiLB.com spoke to Zimmer, who stated that he's finally becoming comfortable with his pitching mechanics, which is in turn allowing him to provide more consistent command.

A number of prospects have also suffered significant loss in value due to serious injuries. The list of walking wounded include: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles; Travis d'Arnaud, C, Mets; Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners; Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres; Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays; and Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Cubs.

Minor Moves: Garcia, Carrasco, Gimenez

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A huge trade went down three years ago today, as the Rangers acquired Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, and cash from the Mariners for Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, and Blake Beavan.  Lueke eventually led to Mike Morse (a free agent after the season) via John Jaso.  Beavan is working in long relief for the Mariners.  Smoak may finally be reaching his potential in Seattle; he's hitting .308/.411/.533 in 141 plate appearances since April 29th.  Smoak's OBP in that period ranks 10th in the Majors among those with at least 100 plate appearances, right behind…John Jaso.  On to today's minor moves…

  • The Phillies announced they've selected the contract of righty Luis Garcia, clearing a spot on the 40-man roster by moving Mike Adams to the 60-day DL. Phillippe Aumont was optioned to Triple-A.  Garcia will be making his MLB debut.
  • Indians righty Carlos Carrasco has officially been optioned to Triple-A, tweets MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.  Carrasco being designated for assignment on Sunday was a paperwork move to secure optional waivers, he explains.
  • The White Sox outrighted catcher Hector Gimenez yesterday, according to the International League transactions page.  Gimenez was designated for assignment on Thursday to open a spot for fellow catcher Josh Phegley, who has two home runs in his first three games.  Gimenez, 30, is on his fifth organization.  At Triple-A last year he hit .259/.324/.440 in 418 plate appearances.
  • Three players currently reside in DFA limbo: Jeremy Bonderman of the Mariners, Adam Rosales of the Athletics, and Brandon Lyon of the Mets.

Indians Focused On Garza, Gallardo

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The Indians seek a top-of-the-rotation type of starting pitcher, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, and the pursuit has led them to focus exclusively on the Cubs' Matt Garza and the Brewers' Yovani Gallardo.  Heyman notes that no deal is close on either front.  The Indians have decent rotation depth, so they're not interested in lesser starters.

The Indians are on Gallardo's no-trade list, as first reported by Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish in June.  He could approve a trade to Cleveland, but it would represent an additional hurdle for the Indians and Brewers.  As Brewers GM Doug Melvin explained to Anthony Witrado of Sporting News in June, "That Yovani is not a free agent like guys like [Zack] Greinke or Anibal Sanchez last year, he has more value than just two months of a rental, so the package from another team has to be something that will wow me."  Gallardo is under contract through 2014 with a club option for '15.

Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reported earlier today that the Indians and Rangers "are known to have strong interest" in Garza.  A Garza trade appears to be a question of "when," rather than "if." I imagine the Cubs' focus in Garza talks will be on pitching, and I would guess they'd bring up members of the Indians' Triple-A rotation such as Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer.  The Indians also seek bullpen help, notes Heyman, a need the Cubs could accommodate with Kevin Gregg or James Russell.

Matt Garza Rumors: Tuesday

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Righty Matt Garza may have put the finishing touch on his Cubs career last night by allowing one run in seven innings in a win against the White Sox.  The latest on the best available starter:

  • Garza's start was scouted by the Rangers, Indians, Pirates, Blue Jays, and Padres, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Those aren't necessarily suitors for Garza this month, however.  Morosi says the Rangers and Indians are "known to have strong interest," while the Red Sox, Nationals, and Dodgers can't be ruled out.  Morosi believes Garza probably wants to be paid like Anibal Sanchez on his next contract, which would mean a five-year, $80MM deal.  The difference is that Sanchez was coming off three consecutive healthy seasons.
  • Though Garza told reporters last night the possibility of a contract extension is 50-50, few believe it's actually a coin flip.  Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times explains, "Team sources, however, characterize the recent, brief talks as confirmation that the sides aren’t much, if any, closer than they were more than a year ago when they first engaged in talks with little progress."  Garza suggested it would be "one hell of a party" to win with the Cubs, and Wittenmyer does note that team is leaving open the possibility of trading Garza now and talking to him again in the offseason.

Cubs Notes: Garza, Free Agents, Bryant, Tseng

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Of the six trades made during the first week of July, the Cubs were involved in four of them.  The most recent trade occurred last night, as the Cubs shipped right-handed bench bat Scott Hairston to the Nationals for pitching prospect Ivan Pineyro.  The Cubs are expected to continue stockpiling young players this month in more trades.  The latest on the team:

  • The Dodgers and Indians both believe Matt Garza will be traded and have been "heavily scouting" the right-hander, USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports.  The Giants and Rangers are also scouting Garza's start tonight (Twitter links).  The Dodgers' continued involvement is interesting given their recent acquisition of Ricky Nolasco, though it's probably no surprise that the Dodgers are again targeting as many notable players as possible.
  • The Cubs have been quick to trade players after signing them as free agents in the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer era, but Hoyer said today on a conference call he doesn't think free agents will shy away from the team for that reason.  "I would hope that we cease being sellers on an annual basis," Hoyer explained, also noting that each situation is taken on an individual basis and, for example, "A lot of places weren’t willing to guarantee [Scott Feldman] a rotation spot coming off a so-so year in Texas."  MLB.com's Carrie Muskat has the full quotes on her blog.
  • Garza perhaps the best available starting pitcher, has "opened a lot of eyes the way he's thrown the last four, fives times out," said Hoyer.  Garza, a 29-year-old in his contract year, has allowed only three runs over his last 30 innings and takes on the White Sox tonight at U.S. Cellular Field.
  • Both the Cubs and Nationals will receive a player to be named later in the Hairston trade, but Hoyer told reporters that component "will not affect the balance of the deal."
  • Third baseman Kris Bryant is one of five first-rounders who remains unsigned; the Cubs drafted him second overall.  Hoyer was reluctant to provide an update on negotiations with adviser Scott Boras, but said, "We’re confident we’ll get it done. We’ll make it an exceptionally fair offer. If Kris wants to be a Cub and be a professional baseball player, I’m confident we’ll get a deal done. Sometimes it takes a deadline to make a deal, and we have a deadline coming up shortly. In a lot of ways, I think it’s a plus at this point."  Draft guru Jim Callis of Baseball America expects all five first-rounders to sign by Friday's deadline.
  • 18-year-old Taiwanese righty JenHo Tseng, ranked #29 on Jesse Sanchez's top 30 international prospect list for MLB.com, is "known for his upright, quick delivery and a fastball that has reached 95 mph."  The Cubs have emerged as the favorite for Tseng, tweets Sanchez, and he's expected to command at least $1.5MM.  Assuming Eloy Jimenez's $2.8MM deal with the Cubs is finalized, and the Cubs add Tseng at around $1.5MM, they appear a lock to exceed their bonus pool by more than 10% even if they max it out by acquiring more pool space.  As explained by Ben Badler of Baseball America, the penalty for going 10-15% over the pool is a 100% tax on the overage and, more importantly, a $500K per player cap in the 2014-15 spending period.  15% or more means a $250K cap. 

Indians Designate Carlos Carrasco For Assignment

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The Indians announced that they have designated pitcher Carlos Carrasco for assignment for the purpose of placing him on their Triple-A team.  The move will allow the Tribe to remove Carrasco from the 25-man roster while keeping him on the 40-man roster once he clears optional waivers.

Carrasco, 26, allowed 29 earned runs across 28 and 2/3 innings this season with 15 strikeouts and 13 walks.  The right-hander made 21 starts for the Tribe in 2011, posting a 4.62 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

Indians Notes: Trade Deadline Options

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Among teams that currently sit on the fence between buying and selling, the Indians certainly have among the most difficult choices. MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince recently looked at Cleveland's dilemma. (He also names the Phillies, Royals, Padres, and Rockies as 50/50 clubs.) Though the Indians made several prominent free agent acquisitions this year, Castrovince says, they did not do so with an eye solely on 2013. On the other hand, with the team facing several needs and sitting just 3.5 back of the division-leading Tigers despite a four-game skid, now may be the time to strike. Here are a few links addressing that issue:

  • While starting pitching may be an obvious place the Tribe could look to make an addition, Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon Journal notes that there are many teams in on that market. Moreover, the options are relatively scarce. Ricky Nolasco is now taken, Cliff Lee would cost an immense sum in prospects and dollars, and Matt Garza is a hot commodity who hits free agency next year. With Jake Peavy injured, the only other prominent option may be Bud Norris, and Ocker opines that the team may be better off relying on his internal choices rather than reaching to pick up the steady-but-unspectacular Astros righty, who should command more in trade value than Nolasco given his younger age and team control.
  • Looking at available bats and relievers, Ocker again sees few options. He mentions Twins first baseman Justin Morneau as a possibility, but it is not clear that the pending free agent will be dealt, and if so whether he'll be worth what Minnesota will demand for a core player. Ocker ultimately concludes that GM Chris Antonetti may be best served by looking to shore up the back end of the bullpen.
  • Likewise, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer tackled the possibility of the Indians shopping for a starter. Ticking through the above-noted suspects (including Yovani Gallardo, whose no-trade list includes Cleveland), Hoynes offers some thoughts on what it may take to get Norris. He suggests that the Indians might need to give up righty Danny Salazar, outfielder Tyler Naquin, and one or more additional well-regarded prospects. While it's not clear that Norris would require quite that much in return, Hoynes implies that the price would be prohibitive. (For reference, Baseball America called Salazar the club's sixth-best prospect at the start of the year, with Naquin third on the list.) 
  • Hoynes ultimately says that the most likely route the Indians could take is to add a left-handed bullpen piece. With players like Matt Thornton (White Sox), Mike Gonzalez (Brewers), and Oliver Perez and Charlie Furbush of the Mariners potentially available, the club could look to improve its middling success at retiring opposing lefties.
  • Taking questions from readers, Hoynes offers that the Indians are unlikely to find adequate value were the team to try and acquire pitching in exchange for young, cost-controlled catcher Carlos Santana. He also rejects the concept of an attempt to nab the aforementioned Lee by dangling top prospect Francisco Lindor, especially given Lee's enormous salary. Hoynes does note that the organization has impressive middle infield depth at its lower level, and could be more flexible in utilizing such prospects in a deal. 

Minor Moves: Bueno, McClellan, Olivo, Wang

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Here are today's minor moves…

  • Royals lefty Francisley Bueno has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Omaha, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Bueno was designated last Tuesday.
  • The Indians announced on Twitter that right-hander Chris Jakubauskas has been released from Triple-A Columbus. The 34-year-old appeared in 11 games for the Clippers, totaling 14 innings of 3.86 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9. He has also appeared in the Brewers organization this year.
  • Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest tweets that Kyle McClellan, who was designated for assignment on Tuesday, will remain with in the Rangers organization after clearing waivers. McClellan will accept an outright assignment to Double-A Frisco. The 29-year-old allowed eight runs in 9 1/3 innings of work with the Rangers this season.
  • Miguel Olivo has cleared waivers and elected free agency, according to Juan C. Rodriguez of the Miami Sun Sentinel (on Twitter). Olivo was designated for assignment earlier this week after hitting .203/.250/.392 and informing the Marlins that he was quitting due to a lack of playing time.
  • The Blue Jays announced that Chien-Ming Wang has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Buffalo, the team announced (hat tip: Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet on Twitter). Wang's agent told Nicholson-Smith on Wednesday that he would accept an assignment to Triple-A rather than electing free agency if he cleared waivers. Wang was roughed up in his final two outings with the Jays to send his ERA soaring to 7.13.
  • Seven players are currently in DFA limbo: Brandon Lyon (Mets), Hector Gimenez (White Sox), P.J. Walters (Twins), Shawn Camp (Cubs), Travis Ishikawa (Orioles), Alex Liddi (Mariners), and Eric Hinske (D-Backs).

AL Central Notes: Indians, Twins, Alvarez

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On this day in 2002, the Tigers acquired Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman in a three-team trade that sent Jeff Weaver to the Yankees and Ted Lilly to the Athletics. None of the other players in the deal (John-Ford Griffin, Jason Arnold and Franklyn German) amounted to much, but 11 years later, Lilly, Pena and Bonderman are all still on Major League rosters. Here's the latest out of the AL Central…

  • MLB.com's Jordan Bastian writes that acquiring a starting pitcher has become "a talking point" in the Indians' front office, and it's likely that the team will also pursue bullpen help prior to the non-waiver trade deadline.
  • While the Indians' rotation has exceeded expectations in 2013, MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince writes that the front office would still like an upgrade to help compete with the Tigers down the stretch. Castrovince adds that the Tribe sees no point in looking at No. 4 and No. 5 starters, because they have plenty of similar depth. However, as they don't view 2013 as an "all or nothing" season, it's likely they'll try to pursue pitchers that are controlled beyond this season. He speculates that Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Samardzija and Bud Norris would interest GM Chris Antonetti.
  • The Twins are among the teams interested in Taiwanese right-hander Jen-Ho Tseng, tweets Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. Tseng, 18, ranked as the No. 29 international prospect in this year's class, according to MLB.com. He was the youngest player named to this year's Chinese Taipei roster in the World Baseball Classic.
  • Sanchez also tweets that one of his sources says previous reports linking the Twins to Cuban outfielder Dariel Alvarez are inaccurate. The most recent connection between Minnesota and Alvarez said that the Twins expected the 24-year-old to be too pricey. Sanchez adds that he's still trying to gauge the market for Sanchez to determine his likely price tag.

Olney’s Latest: Biogenesis, Utley, Wilson, Garza

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In his latest column (Insider subscription required and recommended), ESPN's Buster Olney writes that Nelson Cruz is among the players whose free agent stock could be severely impacted by the Biogenesis scandal. If Cruz is cleared of any wrongdoing by that time he will be fine, but if discipline has yet to be handed out, or he receives a suspension near the end of the season, teams will be wary. Cruz's case could be further complicated if the Rangers make him a qualifying offer. Here are a few of the highlights from Olney's excellent piece…

  • The Blue Jays are looking for upgrades in their rotation and at second base, and they will be interested in Chase Utley should the Phillies make him available.
  • Former Giants closer Brian Wilson is working out in Hawaii and could pitch for teams later this month or in early August.
  • The Cubs are "making progress" in trade negotiations surrounding Matt Garza, and they're actively talking with the Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians and Dodgers. They may also still be involved in talks with the Orioles as well as other NL West teams.
  • Olney also spoke with his colleague Jayson Stark on today's Baseball Tonight podcast, and they discussed the impact of Biogenesis on pennant races in addition to discussing the upcoming trade deadline (Biogenesis talk begins immediately; trade discussions begin shortly after the 11:00 mark).
  • Olney said he'd be "shocked" if Garza was still on the Cubs by the All-Star break, but Stark hears that the Cubs may prefer to wait for a team to meet their price, even if it means waiting until the end of July. Stark and Olney agree that Garza will have the highest price tag of any player on the trade market.
  • The Dodgers, Rangers and Rockies are the three teams that are still in the mix on Ricky Nolasco, while the other formerly interested parties are "on the periphery" according to Stark.
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