Dotel Would Like Contract Extension
While Octavio Dotel is very likely to be traded by the Royals, he said yesterday that he’d like to talk about a contract extension to stay. It’s possible but doesn’t seem likely.
Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star says Dotel would probably look for something around three years, $21MM, which the Royals could afford. Locking him in would allow Joakim Soria or Zack Greinke to move to the rotation.
It still looks like Dotel will end up a Dodger or Indian by Tuesday though. The names we’ve heard so far include Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco, Chin-Ling Hu, and Tony Abreu.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Wheeler, Izzy
Ken Rosenthal posted a new column last night, and has updated it very recently. I’ve already spoken about the Teixeira stuff, but there’s other good material in there too.
- Some of the wilder speculation out there has been that the Twins might trade Torii Hunter or Johan Santana if they decide they’re out of it. Various Baseball Prospectus reports put the Twins’ playoff chances between 5-10%. Rosenthal debunks the idea that Minnesota would shop Hunter without first making him an offer, and keeping Santana for at least 2008 makes sense. Plus, Santana has a no-trade clause.
- Rosenthal does have some Twins for us who might be traded: Luis Castillo and Carlos Silva. Castillo has already been connected to the Mets in rumors, though Silva is a new one. One could definitely envision Silva’s style working in the National League (I know, I say that a lot). There was a recent Silva to Atlanta rumor, though Silva’s agent seems to have debunked it.
- Rosenthal says Dontrelle Willis is not available. Perhaps he and Tim Brown will engage in fisticuffs over this disagreement.
- The Diamondbacks have kicked the tires on Adam Dunn. He might make sense as a rental – the D’Backs playoff changes sit between 16-27%, worth fighting for. No doubt they’ve got a stable of young players to offer.
- Rosenthal says the Astros have yet to receive interest on the Lidge/Wheeler/Qualls troika, while Jayson Stark said yesterday that the Astros hadn’t opened shop on them. Thunderdome match #2, Rosenthal vs. Stark. Assuming Ken survives Tim Brown. Anyway, word is that the Rockies have their eye on Wheeler.
- Parties interested in Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs. This gels with Dan Graziano’s findings. Of course, trading a player like Greinke requires an equally talented youngster in return.
- The Royals may not be able to do better than Cleveland’s Ben Francisco as a bounty for Octavio Dotel. More on him in a separate post.
- Trades of Joe Blanton and Huston Street are "highly unlikely." So you’re saying there’s a chance?
- The chances of the Cardinals trading Jason Isringhausen are described as "remote." The Cards would have a hard time replacing him next year; he’s got a reasonable $8MM option. He also has no-trade protection, so he’d probably want a better extension if he was to accept a trade.
Molony’s Latest: Willis, Encarnacion, Sowers
MLB.com’s Jim Molony has his daily rumor summary up; check it out. New rumors:
- Molony’s sources say the Marlins are now listening to offers for Dontrelle Willis. Might as well – what if the Mariners decide to offer Adam Jones? Many folks remain enamored of Willis’s talent, if not his recent numbers.
- The Cardinals could shop Russ Springer or Juan Encarnacion. Springer is unlikely to be traded, however, because he has his son going to a specific school in St. Louis and the Cardinals respect that. Encarnacion is hitting decently at .293/.329/.471; it might be high time to unload the $6.5MM he’s owed next year.
- Something seems to be going on in Cleveland; GM Mark Shapiro has been in Buffalo watching Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey. Laffey was nearly called up recently. Not much talk about trading Sowers previously, but he might be an interesting chip. He’s similar to Kevin Slowey. They might find success in the NL.
- The Tigers sent scouts to watch Joe Koshansky and Ian Stewart of the Rockies (rumor originated in the Denver Post). Not sure how those two teams match up, but a cheap Koshansky might be worth a look for Detroit at first base next year. Unless Carlos Guillen moves over.
Latest On Octavio Dotel
You know what I love about the Kansas City Star? The enormous, extreme close-up pixellated player photo that seems to accompany every article. It’s bizarre in a good way.
Anyway, Bob Dutton gives us the latest on hot commodity Octavio Dotel. According to Dutton, the Dodgers and Indians are at the forefront, with the Red Sox, Mets, and some other teams monitoring the situation.
As before, Dutton indicates that the Dodgers are the best possibility. They refuse to part with Tony Abreu, however. Abreu is seen as Jeff Kent‘s replacement at second base, though Kent is still going strong and his 2008 option becomes guaranteed with 550 plate appearances this year. Barring injury, he’ll reach that.
This seems parallel to the shortstop situation, where Rafael Furcal is signed through 2008 and Chin-Lung Hu is knocking on the door. For some reason Dutton seems to view Hu as more available than Abreu.
The Indians won’t give up outfielders Franklin Gutierrez or Ben Francisco, at least not yet. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer confirms the info. Is Francisco really anything more than a fourth outfielder?
The Red Sox could go after Dotel and Reggie Sanders in a package deal, perhaps with Wily Mo Pena going to KC.
If Dayton Moore gets anything close to his asking price, the Dotel rental will end up a fantastic move.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Nats After Dunn
Ken Rosenthal’s got a new column up; let’s dive in.
- Fun new rumor: the Nationals are pursuing Adam Dunn. Huh? Makes no sense on the surface. Jim Bowden’s possible motivation would be to sign Dunn long-term and make him the cornerstone of the franchise. If he fails at that, all would not be lost given the draft pick compensation. Rosenthal says the market for Dunn beyond Washington is a bit foggy – the Twins, Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, and Padres could all get involved but none stand out.
- Rosenthal adds some color to my recent Nationals post. He mentions that Ron Belliard is a name that might interest the Mets, an idea that has come up before. Rosenthal says the Mets will not do a Lastings Milledge for Chad Cordero trade.
- The Dodgers have jumped to the forefront on Octavio Dotel, with Takashi Saito ailing. According to Rosenthal, the Royals aren’t demanding the very specific bounty Joel Sherman claimed. Instead, they just want a near MLB-ready player. Rosenthal says Tony Abreu is out of reach but Chin-Lung Hu might not be. He suggests moving Hu to second base to accomodate Tony Pena Jr., which should probably be reversed. It appears the Indians wouldn’t surrender Franklin Gutierrez or Ben Francisco for Dotel. I’d give one up, personally.
- I didn’t know this: Jermaine Dye can veto a deal to four clubs. With his solid play, interest is picking up. As are Kenny Williams’ demands; he wants an elite prospect. The Indians and Red Sox have inquired; the Cubs might make sense too. I thought we had ruled out the Red Sox earlier though.
- The Padres are looking for bench help, perhaps in the name of Ryan Klesko, Mike Piazza, Mark Loretta, or Mike Lamb. Couple of prodigal sons there. Would Piazza be happy as a pricey bench player? Rosenthal says Matt Stairs isn’t available. Why not?
New Plan: Extension For Gagne
The Rangers are throwing trade rumor junkies a curveball – they’re now thinking about hanging onto Eric Gagne and signing him to a contract extension. This development may be related to the limited trade options for the rejuvenated closer.
Keep in mind that the extension talk may just be lip service. As a Scott Boras client, wouldn’t the oft-injured Gagne require a good three years, $36MM guaranteed? That’s my guess. That would be very risky. Assuming Mariano Rivera remains a Yankee, Francisco Cordero will be the only free agent closer near Gagne’s level. Nice timing for Coco, by the way.
I’m still learning how the Elias Bureau determines its free agent classifications. My guess is that Gagne would not earn the Type A designation because he missed most of last year. I’ll have to confirm that. If I’m correct, the Rangers wouldn’t be able to collect much in the way of draft picks if Gagne walks.
Evan Grant also notes that Joaquin Benoit has moven to the forefront as the Ranger reliever must likely to be dealt. Akinori Otsuka‘s injury may prevent him from full re-establishing his value by July 31st. Benoit will not become a free agent until after 2008, and he’s in the midst of a career year after rediscovering his control. The Dodgers and Brewers may be interested. L.A. could get desperate if Takashi Saito‘s injury is serious, although it does not appear to be. On the other hand, it’s certainly in Ned Colletti’s best interest to downplay the injury. For the Brew Crew, Benoit could slide into the closer role in 2008 if they allow Cordero to leave.
Grant adds that the Rangers and Dodgers have had slow-moving talks about Mark Teixeira, and that the Braves were scouting the game on Friday as well. The Braves could’ve been looking at relievers though.
One final note: contrary to a previous report, Grant says Kenny Lofton is drawing significant interest from the Tribe. Lofton’s agent has heard the rumor as well. Kenny implied yesterday that he’d play a corner outfield position if need be.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras
The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:
- Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez‘s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors. Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter. Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement. Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever. The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
- As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter. Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting. I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche. Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
- Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer. He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn. Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
- The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy. I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July. Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
- Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton. The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well. Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
- Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility. Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
- The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter. Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence. I discussed some other options for the Friars here.
All Eyes On Contreras
Buster Olney says that Jose Contreras may be the best available starting pitcher at the moment, which speaks to how weak the market is. Olney lists the Cubs, Braves, Marlins, Indians, and Phillies as teams on hand to watch his six inning, five run performance Sunday night in Baltimore.
To call Contreras the best available indicates that Javier Vazquez is off the market. Contreras’s challengers still include Matt Morris, Dontrelle Willis, and Jason Jennings. If the Pirates were to inexplicably consider trading Ian Snell, he’d easily jump to the forefront. That he’s even available is a dubious rumor at this point.
As for Contreras, his junk might work over in the NL. Maybe that’s why four of the five teams watching his start reside in that league. Olney’s scout said he was working at 87-91, though he did touch 94 last night.
Contreras makes another $4MM this year, $10MM in ’08, and another $10MM in ’09. That shouldn’t scare off too many clubs. Maybe the Marlins. With a 2-4% chance at making the playoffs this year the Marlins would be acquiring Contreras more for 2008-09.
Indians, Brewers Interested In Lofton
Kenny Lofton is the perfect mercenary. He’s been with a million different teams, and has 84 games of playoff experience. Even at age 40, he provides an OBP spark atop the lineup. He makes $6MM this year for the Rangers, so there’s about $2.6MM left on his contract. He gets another $100K if he’s traded.
According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Lofton has "drawn significant interest from Cleveland and Milwaukee." Other teams are checking him out as well. It’d be fun to see Lofton back with the Tribe, the team he’s best known for. He actually came up as an Astro though.
As a Cubs fan I’d welcome Lofton back to Chicago. After abandoning the Alfonso Soriano experiment, the Cubs have employed Angel Pagan, Jacque Jones, and Felix Pie in center. None have hit particularly well. I would’ve signed Lofton this winter, working Pie in carefully.
Grant’s column also mentions Sammy Sosa, who is drawing a little bit of interest. With his OBP down to .294, Sosa is being sold as a lefty-masher instead of a regular. Grant believes the Twins and Yankees might find him useful.
Indians Lock Up Hafner
UPDATE: Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com adds that the deal includes a club option for 2013.
And now Paul Hoynes has more details. The breakdown:
2007: $3.75MM
2008: $4.75MM club option (exercised)
Additional $9MM added to 2007-08 salaries, bringing AAV for those years to $8.75MM
2009: $11MM
2010: $11MM
2011: $13MM
2012: $13MM
2013: Club option for undisclosed amount
Ken Rosenthal has the scoop: the Indians have signed DH Travis Hafner to a four-year, $57MM contract extension. The deal covers the 2009-12 seasons, though Rosenthal notes that some of the money will go towards Hafner’s well below-market salaries this year and next. We’ll have to wait for further details. It’s likely David Ortiz‘s 4/52 contract signed in April of ’06 served as a benchmark. What else would?
Some have speculated that Hafner’s contract situation has affected him at the plate this year. He posted just a .702 OPS in June; he hasn’t had a month like that since 2003. Pronk has consistently supplied 1.000 OPS seasons. He’s quietly been one of the game’s very best hitters for years.
If you ask PECOTA, this extension is reasonable no matter how the compensation is spread. They have Hafner as a $19MM player each year for 2007-09, and a $13MM player annually for 2010-11. On the other hand, there are warning signs that Hafner could fall off rapidly as some of his top comparables did.
Earlier this year, Mark Shapiro said negotiations with Hafner would be tabled until season’s end. He also believed at the time that it might be possible to retain Hafner, Jake Westbrook, and C.C. Sabathia. He’s two-thirds of the way there, and both have been below-market.
Perhaps Shapiro will also change his tune and try to hammer something out with Sabathia? C.C. is a Cy Young contender this year, and could ask for a contract resembling Barry Zito‘s if he hits the open market. Most likely, Sabathia’s agent Greg Genske will recommend he wait to see what happens with Carlos Zambrano.