Elias Type A/Type B Free Agents

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts just posted his projected Elias rankings for American League relievers.

• Type A: Francisco Rodriguez, Damaso Marte, Darren Oliver.  Not an ideal situation for Oliver, as his status will act as a deterrent to other teams if the Angels offer him arbitration and he declines.  The Angels could also get the #25 pick next year if the Mets sign K-Rod.  The Mets lost the #18 pick in ’06 after signing Billy Wagner, and the Phils used it on Kyle Drabek.
• Type B: Jamey Wright, Dennys Reyes, Alan Embree, Trever Miller.

Eddie Bajek attempts to project Elias rankings for American League starters here.

• Type A: A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina.  Burnett seems likely to decline an offer of arbitration and sign elsewhere, giving the Blue Jays two draft picks as compensation.
• Type B: Tim Wakefield, Jon Garland, Paul Byrd.  Garland seems most likely to decline an offer of arbitration and sign elsewhere, though Byrd is a candidate.

Eddie Bajek has cautioned that his projected Elias rankings may not be perfect.  However, it’s the closest thing we’ve got as Eddie is the only person to publicly reverse-engineer the rankings.  With that, a look at the NL starters:

• Type A: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Derek Lowe, and Jamie Moyer.  Moyer is on the borderline, so he could possibly end up a Type B.  He seems likely to re-sign anyway.  The other four will be offered arbitration and could sign elsewhere, netting two draft picks for their old team.
• Type B: Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Randy Wolf, Greg Maddux, Braden Looper.  Not all of these guys will be offered arbitration, though Wolf is a good bet.
• Neither A nor B: Randy Johnson, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Odalis Perez.  Johnson just missed Type B, so he might sneak in there.  It only really affects the D’Backs.

Eddie Bajek has updated his projected Elias rankings, adding NL relievers.  He explains the stats used in this post.

• Type A: Ryan Dempster, Russ Springer, Juan Cruz, Brian Fuentes, Doug Brocail, and Kerry Wood.  The Cubs will probably re-sign both of their guys.  The others stand a good chance of being offered arbitration, with Cruz and Fuentes likely to sign elsewhere and net picks for the D’Backs and Rockies.
• Type B: Brian Shouse, Jason Isringhausen, Joe Beimel, Jeremy Affeldt, Dave Weathers, Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, and Eric Gagne.  Beimel and Lyon might receive arbitration offers.
• Just missed Type B: Arthur Rhodes, Luis Ayala, Will Ohman, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Herges.  Many other impending free agents have no chance of Type B.

I don’t believe we’ve mentioned this yet…Eddie Bajek added the AL relievers for his projected Elias rankings.  He notes that these rankings can swing quite a bit in the remaining three weeks of the season.

• Type As: Francisco Rodriguez, Damaso Marte, and…Darren Oliver?  No doubt the Yankees will buy Marte’s $6MM option out for $250K, but will they offer him arbitration?  He is earning $2MM this year, and has been terrible for them.
• Type Bs: Jamey Wright, Dennys Reyes, and Alan Embree.  Wright and Reyes are earning $1MM this year; Embree $3MM with a club option for ’09 at the same salary.  Perhaps the Twins will offer arb to Reyes.
• Just missed Type B: Kyle Farnsworth, Trever Miller.  Eddie Guardado is not close to Type B status.

Once again we turn to Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts, who has cracked the Elias formula.  Today, National League starters have been added.  Thoughts:

• Four starters project to have Type A status: C.C. Sabathia, Kyle Lohse, Ben Sheets, and Oliver Perez.  Lohse and Perez are solid pitchers, but they’re less attractive given the loss of a draft pick.  Teams like the Mets, Astros, Cardinals, and Yankees may be searching for starting pitching and may have unprotected first-round picks to lose.
• Type Bs: Randy Wolf, Randy Johnson, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Jamie Moyer, John Smoltz, and Greg Maddux.  You have to like Lowe not costing a draft pick.
• Odalis Perez, Braden Looper, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, and others you’d expect are not Type A or B.  No one loses a pick, no one gains a pick.