The Rangers’ Surprising Problem
Each week at MLBTR, it seems we're covering a development that further tanks the Astros' chances of competing for a playoff spot. We've devoted less attention to their in-state rivals, but the Rangers are in no better a situation. Texas and Houston have identical 33-40 records after the Rangers' five-game losing streak. They're only four games clear of the Angels for fourth place in the AL West.
Texas starting the season slowly isn't a huge surprise in itself (even if the extent of their struggles is). The eye-opener is in the way the team has underperformed. The Rangers opened the season without Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle. They were largely trying to stay afloat for the first couple months before welcoming that trio of starters back throughout the summer. The early-season rotation was the big question -- the main reason the Rangers might find themselves closer to the bottom of the AL West than the top more than halfway into June.
Starting pitching has not been the problem. Texas is middle-of-the-pack in that regard, solid work from a staff without three of its most talented arms. The collapse has been on the other side of the ball. The Ranger offense hasn't performed. An outfield that looked like one of the game's most talented groups has been a disaster. It's not the easiest problem for GM Chris Young to address at the deadline -- if the Rangers find themselves in position to add at all next month.
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The Jesus Luzardo Alternative Who *Should* Be Available Next Month
Find virtually any primer for the 2024 trade deadline and you'll see Jesus Luzardo's name at or near the top of the discussion. He's probably even the feature image on many of those pieces. It's not hard to see why. A hard-throwing 26-year-old lefty with two seasons of club control beyond the current campaign and big strikeout abilities is always going to be in demand. And the Marlins, sitting at 23-48 on the season, have effectively been out of postseason contention since the second week of the season. A 1-12 start to the year will do that to you.
Luzardo might be the most talked-about name on the trade market this summer and has a far better chance to move than your standard prime-aged starting pitcher with two-plus seasons of club control. The Marlins already traded Luis Arraez in early May, after all. They're clearly open for business.
Nearly everything I just said about Luzardo applies to another lefty on the opposite coast. And yet for all the Luzardo chatter we've already heard and will continue to hear, the trade buzz between the two southpaws doesn't align.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 2:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Luis Robert's trade value, late-game bullpen possibilities for the Yankees and Cubs, the Astros' decision to move on from José Abreu, Alex Bregman's free agent projection, the cost to extend Tarik Skubal and much more.
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The Astros’ Problematic Long-Term Outlook
The Astros' recent run of success if one of the most remarkable in MLB history. Yes, what everyone now knows about their 2017 season will taint that legacy for many, but Houston has since won a second World Series, appeared in two more, and made the American League Championship Series every single year since 2017. Trash can jokes will never go out of style for some, but what the Astros have accomplished across multiple GMs and multiple managers in the past seven years is objectively incredible.
As we sit more than 40% of the way through the 2024 season, however, it's becoming increasingly apparent that times could be changing. Houston sits 8.5 games back of the Mariners in the American League West and would also need to leapfrog the defending World Series champion Rangers to get back into the division race. The Wild Card scene isn't all that much better. Houston is 5.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, but with five teams standing between them and that potential playoff berth. The roster has been decimated by injuries.
At least at the moment, 2024 doesn't look to be the Astros' year. However, the bigger problem for the Astros isn't necessarily what lies ahead in the final three and a half months of the current season, but rather what looms beyond that point. Because when I say "times could be changing," I'm not referring to a simple one-year hiatus from their typically deep postseason runs. When it comes to the Astros, they're facing far larger and far more concerning long-term questions.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Judge, Luis Robert Jr., Reds, Pirates, Royals
It's time to crack open the MLB mailbag! This week we get into a potential position change for Aaron Judge, possible Luis Robert Jr. trade packages, the AL Cy Young race, possible targets for the Reds, Pirates, and Royals, and much more.
Casey asks:
When Anthony Rizzo's contract runs out with the Yanks, do they move Judge to first? (He's tall enough to make a great stretch, should lower his injury risk and it makes room for Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones.)
The Yankees clearly won't be picking up Rizzo's club option for 2025, so he'll be a free agent after this season. Judge, meanwhile, is signed through 2031 yet will turn 33 in April of next year.
It's so hard to take a competent outfielder and move him down the defensive spectrum with seven years left on his large contract. On the other hand, that's similar to what the Phillies did with Bryce Harper, ending his time as an outfielder at age 30 with nine years left on his deal. I never really understood that decision or why the Phillies weren't questioned more on it. Here's what Harper said in February:
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The Orioles Need More Out Of Center Field
The Orioles have been one of the sport's best teams. They've won two-thirds of their games and trail only the Phillies and Yankees in overall record. A lot has gone right -- from an MVP-caliber performance out of Gunnar Henderson to a Jordan Westburg breakout and quietly excellent performances from Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn (the latter of whom MLBTR's Steve Adams will spotlight later this week).
No team is perfect, though, and the O's go into deadline season with a couple questions. Their rotation depth has taken hits with the losses of John Means and Tyler Wells. The back end of the bullpen could be a bit shaky, especially if Danny Coulombe misses time with an elbow injury. Most surprisingly, the Orioles have had one of the least productive center field situations in the majors. Cedric Mullins was a top ten finisher in MVP voting a couple years back. He's now arguably the only question mark in one of the game's deepest lineups.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Pete Alonso, Bo Bichette, Luis Severino, Trevor Williams' trade value, the middling AL West, Clay Holmes' free agent value and much more.
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Danny Jansen Is Pulling Away From The Rest Of Next Winter’s Catching Class
Last offseason's free agent catching class was very weak. Only three players received a multi-year deal, all of which checked in at two years. Mitch Garver is more of a designated hitter, while Tom Murphy and Victor Caratini are backups. There wasn't a top target for teams looking to the open market for a #1 option.
Next winter's group looks similarly light, with one exception. It's comprised mostly by players in their mid-30s who are generally better suited for backup roles. Yet unlike last winter, there's one player emerging as the clear top of the class. Danny Jansen has been a very good player for the last three years. He has taken things up another level through this season's first couple months. If he can stay healthy, he'll be well-positioned for the top free agent catching contract since Willson Contreras topped $87MM two years ago.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Boras Four, Cubs, Blue Jays, Gambling
I'm back for this week's mailbag! We've got questions on the Boras Four, the Cubs' plan at catcher, available righty relievers, Juan Soto's defense, the Blue Jays' offense, the recent gambling suspensions, my one-third award picks, and much more.
Doug asks:
Do you think that front offices will feel even more compelled to depress free agent salaries after all of the prolonged drama about "The Boras Four" and none of those players panning out to be very good? Will any of Chapman, Bellinger, Snell, or Montgomery opt out of their contract?
Owners and players will be diametrically opposed on player salaries until the end of time, or at least until the end of Major League Baseball. But to your point, it stands to reason that if the early performance of the late-signing Boras pitchers holds up, more front offices will be wary of giving big AAVs to hurlers signing well into spring training, even on short-term deals.
Blake Snell has been terrible, and since debuting April 8th has separate IL stints for adductor and groin strains. Snell recently told reporters, "The one thing I would say is that big-league spring training, you need it. You have to go to spring training. I hope teams see that. I don’t know what [Jordan] Montgomery is doing, but I bet it’s tough for him."
Montgomery, who expressed a similar sentiment, sits at a 5.48 ERA after eight starts, with the worst strikeout rate of his career.
Some pitchers have succeeded after signing late, notably Ervin Santana signing on 3-12-14 and putting up a 3.2 WAR season for the Braves. But both Snell and Montgomery signed later than Santana did, and most examples show pitchers struggling without a normal spring training.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the Yankees' deadline needs, outfield trade possibilities for the Royals, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Diamondbacks' slow start, Tarik Skubal's dominance, Aaron Judge's potential Hall of Fame track and the Cy Young candidacies of star closers Emmanuel Clase and Mason Miller.
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