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Central Notes: Beltran, Lopez, Astros

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On this day in 2005, Rick Ankiel of the Cardinals collected a base hit in his first Grapefruit League game as a position player after beginning his career as a pitcher. He'd later make it back to the Majors in 2007. On with a few links from MLB's Central divisions …

  • Carlos Beltran drew interest from several teams this offseason but ultimately signed with the Cardinals because he wanted to play for a winning team with a grass home ballpark, and because the Redbirds offered him a no-trade clause, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Beltran was conflicted as to which team to sign with, writes Goold, but he ultimately settled on the Cards when his wife urged him to go wherever he'd be happy.
  • Indians utility man Jose Lopez is impressing so far in camp and likes his odds of making the big league roster out of Spring Training, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Lopez signed a minor league deal with the Tribe this offseason and had offers from other teams: "A couple teams asked me to sign with them," Lopez said. "Cleveland had more opportunity. … They're giving me a chance, and now I'm fighting for a spot."
  • The Astros have two players in camp under the scrutiny of being a Rule 5 picks in Marwin Gonzalez and Rhiner Cruz, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The chances of both players lasting on Houston's 25-man roster all season is pretty slim, something GM Jeff Luhnow touched on: "You lose a lot of flexibility by keeping the Rule 5 guys and that's something you have to put into the equation. … To keep two is something very few teams are able to do."

Central Notes: Perkins, Quade, Luhnow

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Three of the four teams that reached last year's League Championship Series play in MLB's central divisions. Let's check in on the central with less than four weeks to go before Opening Day…

  • Glen Perkins will earn $2.5MM in 2013 and $3.75MM in 2014 and 2015 on his new extension with the Twins, Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune tweets. The deal includes a $4.5MM club option for 2016 with a $300K buyout.
  • Former Cubs manager Mike Quade told Yahoo’s Tim Brown that he may take the summer off, but will coach again eventually (Twitter link). The Cubs dismissed Quade early in the offseason before hiring Dale Sveum to manage the team.
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow apologized to Rangers president Nolan Ryan and GM Jon Daniels after saying last week that the Rangers spend on the international market “like drunken sailors.” Luhnow said his remarks were taken out of context, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “It was not a dig against that organization because they’ve done a great job there,” Luhnow said.

Nationals Inquired On Jason Bourgeois

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The Nationals are interested in outfielder Jason Bourgeois and have asked the Astros about him at least three times since the Winter Meetings took place in December, Bill Ladson of MLB.com reports. The two clubs are not close to a deal and one of Ladson’s sources suggests there’s no more than a 50% chance of a trade. 

Bourgeois would be a ‘stopgap’ solution for Washington, according to Ladson. However, GM Mike Rizzo said last week that he's looking for a long-term solution in center field. “We won’t make the change for a short-term answer,” he told Adam Kilgore.

Nationals manager Davey Johnson has been pleased with internal candidates for the center field job such as Roger Bernadina, Brett Carroll and Rick Ankiel, according to Ladson. Jayson Werth could also play center for Washington.

Bourgeois posted a .294/.323/.357 line with 31 stolen bases last year, while playing all three outfield positions and appearing at second base. The 30-year-old will be arbitration eligible for the first time after the 2012 season.

2013 Vesting Options

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Which players can lock in 2013 contract options based on their 2012 performance?  Let's take a look.

  • Jason Bartlett, Padres: $5.5MM option vests with 432 plate appearances.
  • Alex Gonzalez, Brewers: $4MM option vests with 525 plate appearances.
  • Chipper Jones, Braves: $9MM+ option vests with 123 games.
  • Kevin Gregg, Orioles: $6MM option vests with 50 games finished.
  • Brett Myers, Astros: $10MM option vests based on unknown starting or relieving milestones.

NL Central Notes: Molina, Astros, Das

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There's been lots of Pirates buzz today, following Andrew McCutchen's six year, $51.5MM contract extension. Here are some notes on the rest of the division…

  • Yadier Molina's representatives were preparing to aim for a seven-year deal in the $140MM range if the catcher had reached free agency, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Some teams might have been willing to part with that kind of cash for Molina, an elite two-way player. "He's like the Deion Sanders of catchers,'' one executive told Heyman. Molina, who would have been eligible for free agency following the 2012 season, signed a five-year, $75MM extension with the Cardinals last week.
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells Tyler Kepner of the New York Times that he believes discipline is necessary for building an MLB team. “The analogy I use is blackjack,” Luhnow said. “You play perfect strategy over a long haul, that’s going to be your best outcome." Tim Dierkes spoke with Luhnow last week.
  • Arbitrator Shyam Das was recently in the news for ruling in favor of Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, but as Cary Spivak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel explains, the 67-year-old former law professor has ruled on a number of important MLB issues in the past. Das has dealt with trades, player discipline and other disputes between the players' union and MLB. Spivak's piece offers a personal look at the low-profile arbitrator.

The Next Frontier Of Baseball Analysis

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The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference assembled an excellent baseball panel this year in Boston.  Host Rob Neyer asked participants their thoughts on the next frontier in baseball analysis, and a few highlights follow.

Red Sox senior advisor of baseball operations Bill James gave a two-part answer.  First, James feels "one of the things we most need to understand better is how levels of competition fit together so that the information we get from one level can be interpreted at another level in a way that is more helpful."  James says "we really don't have a clue" how levels such as college, Double-A, and Japan fit together.  Second, James believes that teams and players act in their best interest, even if it's not beneficial for the game as a whole.  He gave an example of a player stepping out of the box to regain his focus.  That 30 second break helps the player perform his best, but delays of this nature are bad for baseball in general, because they cause many to consider the game boring to watch.

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow wasn't actually answering Neyer's question at the time, but he volunteered his thoughts, saying, "The frontier from my perspective is really turning that player evaluation into player valuation.  When Scott [Boras] and I have a conversation about a player, this player may be 12 runs above average and another player might be 10 runs above average, but there's so many other factors that go into whether I'm going to be willing to pay more or less for that player.  For example, we always talk about the most likely outcome for this player, but what's the distribution look like?  Is there a 10% chance that he's below replacement level, is there a 10% chance that he's above superstar level?"

Indians president Mark Shapiro spoke of an "infinite number of things that I don't know," but mentioned during the conference that "medical is an absolute separator."  Agent Scott Boras focused on psychology, as a means to increasing the chances of players reaching their potential.  Rays baseball operations special assistant Rocco Baldelli wonders why some players develop the ability to hit, and some do not.

The panel provided a wide array of answers, but Luhnow's resonated most with me.  We often apply straightforward methods to determine what constitutes a good free agent signing, but projecting a player's WAR and multiplying by the price of a win is just a starting point.  Both Luhnow and Shapiro lamented the inability to tell fans all the factors that went into a decision, so unfortunately there will always be missing information for those outside the front office. 

Central Notes: Luhnow, Hart, Braun, Zumaya

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Some links from baseball's Central Divisions for your Sunday reading…

  • New Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow has the right outlook, but very few pieces to work with, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. One scout told Heyman that aside from Carlos Lee, only two players in the Astros' projected lineup have a chance to be even league-average hitters: Jason Castro and Chris Johnson.
  • Corey Hart has torn cartilage in his knee that will require arthroscopic surgery and sideline him for three-to-four weeks, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said they won't rush Hart back like they did from an oblique injury that cost him his 2011 Spring Training, and that Hart will likely open the season on the disabled list.
  • MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner told Haudricourt that the leak in Ryan Braun's positive drug test was an isolated, case-specific incident and that the process doesn't have a confidentiality problem.
  • Joel Zumaya has opted for Tommy John surgery, writes MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger. Dr James Andrews will perform the operation at the end of March, and the Twins have yet to decide if they'll place Zumaya on the 60-day DL or release him, assistant GM Rob Antony told Bollinger.

Cafardo On Jones, Nationals, Floyd, Indians, Red Sox

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Agent Scott Boras told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he expects trade deadline activity to decrease because the superpowers in baseball are going to save money on the luxury tax and can’t spend it in the draft.  Boras was in attendance for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston and our own Tim Dierkes sat down for an interview with the super agent.  Here's more from Cafardo's Sunday column..

  • The Orioles' Adam Jones keeps popping up in trade discussions with the Nationals, but O's sources indicate that there’s very little chance he'll be dealt.  The Nats are trying to figure out center field, and for the moment they’re content with using Jayson Werth, Roger Bernadina, and Rick Ankiel.  However, they will be scouting Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Gerardo Parra, and Peter Bourjos in spring training.
  • White Sox right-hander Gavin Floyd could be in play for the Blue Jays or Red Sox.  The White Sox don’t appear eager to move Floyd, but GM Kenny Williams wouldn’t be shy if it brought him a decent bounty in return.
  • The Indians will try to fill in for Grady Sizemore with Michael Brantley, but their scouts are looking for a center field option in the trade market.
  • Free agent Adonis Garcia is drawing interest from several teams, but the Red Sox aren’t overly enamored, according to a team source.
  • Roy Oswalt is still in play and later in camp the Red Sox could put on a full-court press for him.
  • The Rays are looking for a catcher to back up Jose Molina and Boras may look to put Ivan Rodriguez in that spot.
  • There seems to be concern that the Astros are shooting themselves in the foot by moving starter Brett Myers into the closer role as he is one of the veterans they have been trying to deal.  Teams typically need innings-eaters over late-inning relievers.
  • Cafardo wonders aloud if Terry Francona will land with the Mets when he resumes his managerial career.

Luhnow On Myers, Draft, Astros

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New Astros GM Jeff Luhnow participated on the baseball analytics panel today at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.  A few highlights:

  • After the panel, I mentioned to Luhnow that his decision to move Brett Myers to the Astros' closer role has raised a few eyebrows.  I asked if he thought Myers will have more impact in the bullpen than the rotation, and the GM replied, "I think for our team, right now, where we are and what we need, Myers in the bullpen is going to help us.  We've got some options in the rotation and we really didn't have good options for that [closer] role.  He's excited about it, and I'm excited to see how it works out. If it doesn't work out, we can always go back to the other way."   As to whether the two parties would "re-restructure" the contract in that case, Luhnow said that would not be necessary because it's currently structured so it can go either way.
  • During the panel, Luhnow explained what it's like to make a move that is not well-received.  "It's frustrating, because you wish you could tell the fans everything that went into the decision.  You go on FanGraphs and you read stuff about the player, and if that's all the information you had, you might make a different decision.  But you've got a lot of information from the clubhouse, medical information, you have a lot of other pieces that are relevant that you really can't discuss.  You're going to be second-guessed no matter what, so you just have to take it and move on."
  • "You can't go wrong" with the first overall pick in the draft, Luhnow told me.  He's never picked higher than Brett Wallace at #13 in 2008 for the Cardinals.  He says there's already a short list of candidates for the Astros' 1-1 pick in 2012.  I mentioned the huge expectations for such a pick, and Luhnow replied, "No question about it, there have been 1-1s that have not worked out well and we hope that we're one of the 1-1s that turns out to be a franchise player.  That's the 
    expectation, that's the goal.  There's risk in any player you select in the draft, but hopefully we'll take one that will move quickly and be an impact player."
  • "There's no question that sports analytics helped the St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series last year," said Luhnow on the panel.  He said the Cardinals didn't have much with respect to analytics when he arrived in 2003, and the Astros are similar nine years later.  He considers a blank slate "a huge opportunity to gain an edge."  Luhnow says he's hired ten people since being named Astros GM, and "four of them were geeks, nerds, computer guys."
  • Luhnow says the Dominican amateur market is almost inverted from the bargains of 10-15 years ago, and likes the limitations imposed in the new collective bargaining agreement.

NL Central Notes: Burnett, Cardinals, Astros

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Though two NL Central veterans dominated headlines this offseason, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder signed with American League teams and Aramis Ramirez's three-year, $36MM deal with the Brewers was the largest free agent contract by any of the division's six teams. Here are the latest links from the NL Central…

  • The Pirates announced that they expect A.J. Burnett’s eye injury to sideline him until two or three months from now. The right-hander underwent surgery today after injuring himself in a bunting drill.
  • Cardinals chairman and CEO Bill DeWitt Jr. told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that the Cardinals couldn't take the chance of letting Yadier Molina hit free agency. "We didn't extend Molina because he had a good year offensively last year,” he said. “We extended him because of the bulk of the work since he became a regular in 2005." Molina and the Cardinals finalized a five-year, $75MM extension yesterday.
  • Four of the ten people Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has hired might be described as geeks or nerds, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports from the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston (Twitter links). Luhnow said he’s had a clean slate, since the Astros weren't doing much in terms of analytics before hiring him.
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