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Quick Hits: Howard, International Prospects, Smith, Pirates

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A shortened 2020 season would make Spencer Howard a larger factor in the Phillies’ plans, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  Since Howard threw only 71 minor league innings in 2019 due to shoulder problems and was shut down at midseason, the Phils were going to ease him back into action this year under an innings limit at both the minor league and (if all things progressed well) Major League levels.  If the 2020 season ends up being something of an abbreviated sprint, however, the right-handed prospect could end up pitching for Philadelphia as early as the new Opening Day, working in a starting or relief role and still potentially not approaching an innings cap that Lauber estimates could be around 130 frames of work.

A few more items as we kick off Sunday…

  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks at five prospects who are lined up to join Major League teams when the international signing window opens on July 2.  The Padres, Brewers, Braves, Indians, and Rangers have already been respectively connected to each of the five youngsters, with Atlanta and Cleveland each prepared to give out bonuses in the $1MM range.
  • Fraidel Liriano, another shortstop from the Dominican Republic, is expected to land the largest bonus of the quintet, as Badler writes that the Rangers will give Liriano around $1.5MM.  Liriano could eventually wind up at third base or second base rather than shortstop, though some scouts were intrigued by his hitting potential, with Liriano’s “strong hands and quick wrists, producing whippy bat speed.”
  • Twelve teams contacted Kevan Smith during the catcher’s free agent stint this winter, Smith tells John Perrotto of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, though he was surprised to be on the open market at all.  The Angels non-tendered Smith rather than go through the arbitration process with him (MLBTR projected Smith to earn a $1.3MM salary in 2020), a decision that left Smith feeling “pretty stunned…I thought I was on solid footing there.”  Smith ended up signing a minor league deal with the Rays after surveying his options, saying, “You start looking around and see what’s going to be your best opportunity and what team you’re most comfortable with.  You pick and choose, and it comes down to who’s the most interested.  I definitely felt the Rays wanted me to be here.”  Playing in Tampa Bay also brings Smith to the East Coast and at least a bit closer to his home in Pennsylvania, though the Pittsburgh native said he didn’t hear from the Pirates this winter, despite the Bucs’ need for catching.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies spent more than $100MM for a third consecutive winter — including a second straight offseason with a nine-figure contract — as they look to end a playoff drought that now spans close to a decade.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Philadelphia’s offseason kicked off with several days of deliberation over the fate of former manager Gabe Kapler. General manager Matt Klentak reportedly supported Kapler until the end but was overruled by owner John Middleton. The Phillies set right to work in interviewing some of the most experienced and decorated managers in recent memory, ultimately settling on Joe Girardi, who was hired just two weeks after Kapler’s ousting was announced.

The 2019 Phillies were a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of runs scored and a decidedly below-average club in terms of their overall rate stats at the plate (91 wRC+ as a team). Phillies starting pitchers were middle-of-the-road in terms of total innings (13th) and ERA (17th). Fielding-independent metrics painted similarly underwhelming pictures. The bullpen looked like a strength heading into the year — until virtually every reliever on the Phillies’ roster went down with an injury. The patchwork collection of bullpen arms that Klentak and his staff put together on the fly was — you guessed it — right in the middle of the pack (16th in ERA, 14th in xFIP).

To the credit of Klentak and the Phillies, one of the goals last winter was to upgrade the defense — and they did, by leaps and bounds. No team improved more defensively in 2019, although that’s in large part because their ’18 glovework was astonishingly bad. The Phillies posted a stunning -118 Defensive Runs Saved in 2018 but remarkably ranked eighth in the Majors at +51 in 2019. Unfortunately, injuries, regression elsewhere and a lack of progress from some younger players counteracted much of that improvement. The 2019 Phillies finished out the year as an average team with the bat and on the mound, so the resulting 81-81 record probably shouldn’t have been a surprise.

With so much room for improvement with regard to the offense and the pitching staff, Klentak and company had a wide variety of avenues to pursue, but the GM made clear early in the winter that augmenting the rotation was his priority. Looking at pitching ahead of the offense indeed seemed prudent; a full season of Andrew McCutchen, a rebound from Rhys Hoskins after a second-half slump, and the addition a smaller-scale upgrade over Maikel Franco could reasonably be viewed as a path to an improved offense. The pitching side was far less clear.

Aaron Nola, of course, has cemented himself as a high-quality rotation cog, but the rest of the Phillies’ staff was less appealing. Jake Arrieta no longer looks the part of a $25MM arm and had surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow late in the year. Zach Eflin is a solid back-of-the-rotation option but lacks a lofty ceiling. Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta both took significant steps back in 2019. And the farm system lacks much in the way of quality, MLB-ready pitching (excepting, perhaps, top prospect Spencer Howard).

The question was just how aggressive the team should be in pursuing its preferred options. The Phillies spent $330MM on Bryce Harper a winter ago, showing they can spend as highly as anyone in the game, but they were never strongly connected to Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. Rather, it was the market’s No. 3 arm, Zack Wheeler, who quickly emerged as a top entrant on the Phillies’ wishlist.

“One of the things we’ve got to try to do, if we can, is to not forfeit draft picks, and that’s hard when you’re fishing in the deep end of the free-agent pond,” Klentak said in an early November interview with the 94WIP Midday Show. That seemed to cast some doubt on whether the Phils would seriously pursue Wheeler or whether they’d instead look to Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, or another veteran arm who hadn’t rejected a qualifying offer. However, less than a month later, the Phillies agreed to a five-year, $118MM deal with Wheeler.

The price shocked some onlookers, although the Phillies weren’t even the highest bidder. Multiple reports indicated that the White Sox offered more than $120MM over a five-year term, but Wheeler had a preference to remain on the east coast, spurning Chicago’s advances and perhaps dissuading the also-interested Twins from upping their initial five-year, $100MM offer. Wheeler is already a quality arm, but his blend of relative youth, velocity, strikeout prowess and elite spin rate give him the feel of a breakout candidate. The Phillies are surely hoping that there’s another gear for Wheeler; going from a team with -86 Defensive Runs Saved to one who posted +51 DRS also shouldn’t hurt his cause.

There’s an argument to be made that the Phillies should’ve pursued a second starting pitcher. The combination of Nola, Wheeler, Arrieta and Eflin has the makings of a solid top four, but both Pivetta and Velasquez have struggled in multiple rotation auditions. Ranger Suarez, Enyel De Los Santos, Cole Irvin and others loom as depth options, and the aforementioned Howard should open the season in Double-A (with an eventual MLB promotion in 2020 not out of the question entirely). But the Phillies are a team in dire “win-now” mode, having missed the postseason each year since 2011.  Despite Klentak’s three-year extension from last winter, the GM had to field questions about his own job security this offseason, and the fact that he was overruled on Kapler’s future only puts further pressure on him to put a winner on the field.

Relying on internal options to round out the fifth spot again, then, is a particularly dicey proposition. The market featured plenty of solid veterans who took an annual value of $10MM or less — Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello among them — and several bounceback candidates with some degree of ceiling signed for under $10MM (e.g. Alex Wood, Drew Smyly, Kevin Gausman, Michael Wacha, Taijuan Walker). The Wheeler addition, however, proved to be Philadelphia’s only rotation pickup of the winter on either the Major League or minor league side.

From there, the front office set its sights on improving a lineup that has a number of solid pieces but still plenty of uncertainty. Odubel Herrera’s domestic violence suspension and poor performance at the plate led to him being outrighted off the 40-man roster, but he lacks the service time to reject the assignment while retaining the remainder of his contract.  That leaves Herrera stuck in the organization, and leaves the Phillies with a fairly notable question mark in center field. Beyond that, Philadelphia’s decision to jettison both Franco and Cesar Hernandez via non-tender — the former due to continued ineffectiveness and the latter more due to his escalating arbitration price — left a pair of potential spots for upgrade in the infield.

The key piece for the Phillies in all of this was versatile youngster Scott Kingery, who has proven himself to be not just a capable defender at multiple positions but a legitimate asset at a number of spots on the diamond. His ability to move around left the Phillies able to explore the market for center fielders, third basemen, second basemen and shortstops alike. In the end, the decision was made to sign Didi Gregorius to a one-year deal, slide Jean Segura from shortstop to second base, and deploy Kingery as the primary third baseman. That sets up former first-round pick Adam Haseley as the primary center fielder, although he could be in a platoon of sorts with fleet-footed Roman Quinn. Alternatively, the Phils could play Kingery in center against lefties and go with a non-roster veteran like Josh Harrison or Neil Walker at third base on those days.

The Gregorius addition is a bet on a rebound for a player who looked to be emerging as a high-end shortstop before 2018 Tommy John surgery interrupted that trajectory. Gregorius was sensational for the ’18 Yankees, hitting .268/.335/.494 with quality glovework. A return to that level of play would be a boon for the Phils, and while defensive metrics show a fairly wide split in evaluating his glove at shortstop, the hope is that Gregorius will represent a further defensive upgrade over Segura.

As was the case with the pitching staff, though, it seems like the Phillies could’ve gone bigger. Gregorius is a perfectly sensible one-year gamble or even a potential bargain at $14MM, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that the plan in center field is to trot out a 24-year-old who hit .266/.324/.396 (88 wRC+) in his debut campaign last year. Haseley appears to be a capable defender, but he played in all of 18 games in Triple-A before his call to the Majors and has yet to prove he can hit big league pitching at an average rate. The free-agent market was pretty thin, but the Phillies could’ve also pursued any number of third-base options and installed Kingery in center field. Trades for veterans like Starling Marte or even Kris Bryant would’ve made sense on paper.

In the bullpen, the club opted not to make much of any additions at all. Tommy Hunter returns on a surprising big league deal but with a meager $850K salary. Some combination of Francisco Liriano, Anthony Swarzak, Bud Norris and Blake Parker could parlay a non-roster invite into a spot on the MLB roster, and waiver pickups like Reggie McClain and Deolis Guerra give the Phils some additional depth. However, the team is relying on a cast of characters that didn’t perform particularly well in 2019, hoping for numerous bounce-backs or returns to health. In the case of the talented Seranthony Dominguez, it appears they may already be out of luck on the injury front.

The Phillies’ lack of supplemental moves and their proximity to the $208MM luxury tax threshold makes it impossible not to wonder whether Klentak and his staff were instructed to keep the payroll south of that line. Owner John Middleton told reporters in February that he never expressly dictated as much to Klentak, but it’s hard to see a win-now club with a few obvious holes sitting narrowly under the line and not connect those dots. It’s quite likely that one or two names from the cavalcade of non-roster veterans will make the Phillies’ roster, perhaps pushing them right up against that barrier.

If there’s one pending piece of business for the Phils, it’s the status of one of their best all-around players: catcher J.T. Realmuto. The two sides have spent much of the spring at the negotiation table in hopes of hammering out a long-term deal that’ll keep the All-Star from the open market next winter, but talks have been put on hold for now. With Realmuto reportedly seeking to top Buster Posey’s $159MM guarantee — perhaps on a six-year pact — it could be tough for the two sides to come to mutually agreeable terms.

2020 Season Outlook

The Phillies should be a better team in 2020 than they were in 2019, but it feels like they pulled some punches this winter. Perhaps Haseley will solidify himself as a quality regular in center, and perhaps one of Pivetta or Velasquez will finally break out into the quality starter many have believed them to potentially be. It feels like this team could’ve used another addition or two, though, and that’s a tough spot to be in when considering the level of competition they’ll face.

The Nationals are fresh off a World Series win. The Braves, buoyed by one of MLB’s best young cores, have won consecutive division titles. The Mets have one of the game’s most talented collection of pitchers — even if several key names are seeking a bounceback season. Even the rebuilding Marlins added some veterans this winter and should be a tougher opponent than they were in 2019.

It should be another tight NL East race whenever we do get a season, and while the Phillies won’t be considered a favorite, there’s enough talent on the club to end their increasingly long postseason drought.

How would you grade the Phillies’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users) 

Video: The Best Extension Candidates For Each NL East Team

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Who is the best extension candidate for the Mets, Nationals, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies? Jeff Todd suggests the Polar Bear, Childish Bambino, and a few players you might not expect in today’s video.

Jump to a team:

  • Braves – 1:23
  • Marlins – 3:17
  • Mets – 4:57
  • Nationals – 7:07
  • Phillies – 9:36

Phillies, J.T. Realmuto Pause Extension Talks

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Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto has been an obvious extension candidate for a while, but nothing has come together yet as he nears his final season of team control. With the coronavirus pushing back the start of the season for the foreseeable future, it doesn’t appear a new Realmuto pact will materialize in the near term. The Phillies and Realmuto have hit the pause button on negotiations for the time being, general manager Matt Klentak revealed Tuesday (via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer).

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained Tuesday, there isn’t a roster freeze or a moratorium on extensions, so teams and players aren’t prohibited from hammering out long-term agreements. On the other hand, with the start of the 2020 campaign off the table for a while, there’s a lot less urgency for the two sides to get something done. The Phillies had been prioritizing a preseason extension for Realmuto, though. Therefore, it stands to reason they’ll get back to work on one when there’s clarity regarding the date of Opening Day, if not sooner.

While Realmuto at least has a contract for this year, players from the Phillies and other teams who signed minor league deals containing opt-out clauses are facing quite a bit of uncertainty.

Klentak spoke on their statuses, saying: “We do not have clarity. There’s a possibility we will have to make some of those decisions this week.”

Philadelphia has a few established veterans who landed non-guaranteed pacts with opt-outs and were competing for big league roles before the postponement of spring training. As Lauber notes, infielders Neil Walker and Logan Forsythe and relievers Anthony Swarzak and Francisco Liriano may all exit their deals Thursday. Speculatively, however, MLB could push the deadlines back for players in those situations.

Phillies Sign Venezuelan Prospect Yhoswar Garcia

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The Phillies have agreed to sign Venezuelan center fielder Yhoswar Garcia, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports (Twitter link).  The Phils have been linked to Garcia for over a year, and are reportedly set to sign the 18-year-old to a bonus worth roughly $2.5MM.

Many of the top names in the 2019-20 international class were unofficially off the board since well before the signing window opened last July 2, though Garcia’s deal has only now been finalized because he only recently become eligible.  As Badler explained in December, there was an age-related holdup since Garcia initially presented a birthdate that indicated he was a year younger than his actual age.  The issue ended up being a delay rather than an obstacle, however, and Garcia will now join Philadelphia’s organization as planned.

Known as “The Drone,” Garcia backs up that MLB-ready nickname with “plus-plus speed in center field,” Badler writes.  Garcia is 6’1″ and a relatively thin 155 pounds, though MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez figures Garcia to gain more weight as he gets older and subsequently adds power to some already-intriguing hitting ability.  Garcia “shows good instincts and is a gap hitter,” according to Sanchez, who also feels Garcia has a lot of defensive promise as a center fielder with a good throwing arm.

Rumor Retrospection: The (Would-Be) Albert Pujols/Ryan Howard Trade Of 2010

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It was exactly a decade ago today that ESPN.com’s Buster Olney dropped a bombshell on the baseball world, reporting that the Phillies had held some internal discussions within their front office about the possibility of a blockbuster deal of first basemen — Phils slugger Ryan Howard to the Cardinals for Albert Pujols.  It would have been a one-for-one trade, with both players switching uniforms with two years remaining on their current contracts.

As Olney observed in his report, the concept might well have been just an idea floated within Philadelphia’s front office, rather than an actual proposal made to the Cards.  Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. went a step further when asked to comment on the rumor, calling it “Lies.  That’s a lie. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.”  (Olney defended his reporting two days later, calling it “confirmed information” and he knew “exactly who said what to whom, and how sturdy the intent was.”)

It was an eyebrow-raising trade rumor at the time, and though this particular swap apparently didn’t come close to being a reality, the concept of a straight-up superstar-for-superstar deal is still fascinating ten years later since such deals are so rare.  And, in this particular instance, we can judge with a decade of hindsight how a Pujols-for-Howard trade might have worked out for both the Phillies and the Cardinals.

For St. Louis, the impact is simple — they might not have won the 2011 World Series without Pujols.  2011 marked what was, incredibly, the least-impressive of Pujols’ 11 MLB seasons, as he “only” hit .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs over 651 PA.  This performance was just the warmup for an epic postseason, as Pujols posted a 1.155 OPS over 82 PA during the Cardinals’ 18 playoff games.  Pujols’ efforts included a three-homer night in Game 3 of the World Series, putting him alongside Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson as the only men (Pablo Sandoval joined the club in 2012) to ever hit three home runs in a Series game.

Could the Cardinals have won a title with Howard in Pujols’ place?  It’s possible, as while Howard wasn’t quite as productive as Pujols during the 2011 regular season, Howard still hit .276/.353/.505 and 31 homers.  Who’s to say how those numbers might have differed in a new ballpark and a new environment as a Cardinal rather than as a Phillie; Howard, a St. Louis native, might have thrived with his hometown team, or perhaps struggled under the added pressure.

What likely doesn’t happen in this what-if scenario, however, is the nasty injury Howard suffered in his (and the Phillies’) last at-bat of the 2011 season.  Making the final out of the 2011 NLDS, Howard tore his Achilles tendon leaving the batters’ box to run out a grounder, and he didn’t return to action until July 6, 2012.  It ended up being a career-altering injury for Howard, as while he was already showing a tiny bit of decline from his prime years and any sort of dropoff for a power hitter isn’t uncommon as he enters his 30’s, the before-and-after of Howard’s Achilles injury is jarring.  From 2012-16, Howard hit only .226/.292/.427 over 2122 PA.

The Phillies lost that 2011 NLDS to, ironically, the Cardinals.  It was the second straight year the Phillies had fallen short in the playoffs after a dominant regular season, and it ultimately proved to be the end of that great era of Philadelphia baseball.  In the eight years since, the Phillies have yet to enjoy another winning season, only managing an even .500 record on two occasions (2012, 2019).  While Howard was a big part of the Phillies’ success in 2010 and 2011, replacing him with Pujols’ next-level production might well have been the difference in a World Series victory in either 2010, 2011, or both seasons.

The other major side effect of this trade is what happens after the 2012 season.  A little over a month after Olney’s report, the Phillies signed Howard to a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2012-16 seasons.  Since Howard was already 30 years old at the time of the extension and under contract for two more years, there was a pretty immediate and negative reaction to the Phillies’ decision, and while the Achilles injury wasn’t foreseen, the deal indeed ended up being a bust for the Phils.

That said, does Howard still ink an extension if he ends up with St. Louis in this alternate reality?  As Olney noted, the Cardinals weren’t making progress with Pujols on an extension, so they could have had interest in Howard as a potential long-term replacement.  The difference, however, could’ve been that the Cards might have waited at least a season before locking Howard up.  Looking back at past extensions for such Cardinals notables as Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, or Paul Goldschmidt, the team has tended to wait until just before the pending free agent’s final season under contract to finalize a new deal.  A Cardinals/Howard extension could been potentially lesser in both years and dollars, if Howard has performed for the Cards in 2010 as he did in the real world (.276/.353/.505 with 31 home runs) for Philadelphia.  While still strong numbers, they nonetheless represented a step back from the 50 homers Howard averaged every season from 2006-09, while also batting .278/.379/.589.

As for Pujols, he did depart St. Louis after that 2011 World Series title, signing a ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels that still has two seasons remaining.  While the Phillies were willing to splurge on Howard, extending Pujols would’ve cost twice the years and almost twice the money as Howard’s extension.  Maybe the Phils (perhaps flush off Pujols leading them to a championship or two) would have decided that Pujols was worth the extra investment and signed him to a similar extension.  Assuming the Pujols in this multiverse declined at the same pace as our universe’s Pujols did with the Angels, such a deal could have left the Phillies with an even bigger contractual albatross on their hands….especially if the Pujols-led 2010 Phils or 2011 Phils hadn’t won a World Series, leaving the team without even a “flags fly forever” silver lining.

Another route is that the Phils work out a more creative extension with Pujols, perhaps overwriting the terms of his 2010-11 salaries to give him more money sooner and less money on the back end in his decline years.  Or, in what might have been ultimately the best-case scenario for Philadelphia, the team could have just let Pujols depart for free agency after the 2011 season.  That would have left room in the Phils’ budget and a hole at first base, which could have put the team in the market for another of that offseason’s top free agent first basemen — Prince Fielder.

Needless to say, such a major trade would’ve greatly altered the last decade of Major League Baseball, and likely swung at least one World Series result.  Given how the last ten years played out for the Phillies, maybe there’s someone from that club’s front office who, if this trade proposal indeed never got past the internal discussion phase, wishes they’d picked up the phone to at least give the Cards a call.

Latest On Extension Talks Between Phillies, J.T. Realmuto

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Extension talks between the Phillies and star catcher J.T. Realmuto have been slow to progress. The 28-year-old (29 next week) lost an arbitration hearing against the Phils last month that set his 2020 salary at $10MM, although Realmuto made clear early in the arb process that he wouldn’t harbor any hard feelings regardless of the eventual hearing’s outcome.

If there’s a reason that talks have moved slowly, then, it could simply be the two-time All-Star’s asking price; MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported on the latest edition of the Big Time Baseball podcast that Realmuto’s camp has been seeking to top Buster Posey in terms of overall guarantee, adding that Paul Goldschmidt’s extension with the Cardinals has been another talking point (audio link, with Realmuto talk beginning around the 44-minute mark).

There’s a fair bit to unpack there. Back in 2013, Posey signed an eight-year, $159MM extension that was tacked onto his existing one-year, $8MM deal with which he’d avoided arbitration. Somewhat notably, that deal was negotiated by CAA’s Jeff Berry, who also represents Realmuto. Last spring, Goldschmidt signed a five-year, $130MM contract extension, coming out to $26MM per year. A six-year deal at Goldschmidt’s annual rate would put Realmuto just shy of Posey’s guarantee. Topping Goldschmidt’s annual rate by any more than $500K  over a six-year term would take Realmuto past Posey in terms of overall guarantee.

Of course, Realmuto is at a different point in his career than either Posey or Goldschmidt was upon inking those respective deals. Posey was a relatively fresh-faced 26-year-old who was fresh off a National League batting title and MVP the prior year in 2012. He’d only just reached arbitration as a Super Two player, and the extension bought out his remaining three years of arb in addition to at least five free-agent years (plus an option for a sixth). Goldschmidt was, like Realmuto, on the cusp of free agency last spring when he signed his contract. However, he was headed into his age-31 season, while Realmuto will play the upcoming campaign at 29.

Realmuto is both closer to free agency than Posey was and younger than Goldschmidt was, so there’s some parallels there. Likening him to Goldschmidt is difficult, though, given that they play different positions and possess different skill sets. Realmuto derives a good bit of value from his elite defense behind the plate, and while he’s an above-average hitter, he’s never been close to the hitter that Goldschmidt has been in his peak seasons. From 2012-18, Goldschmidt posted a combined 146 wRC+ and OPS+. Realmuto, conversely, has a career-high of 126 in both metrics and has only reached that level once (2018).

Over the past four seasons, Realmuto has batted a combined .283/.335/.464 (114 OPS+, 113 wRC+). He also ranks among the game’s premier backstops in terms of pitch-framing, caught-stealing rate and blocking pitches in the dirt. In that time, Realmuto has been worth 15.1 rWAR and 17.1 fWAR.

Historically speaking, it’s tough to find an apt comparison for Realmuto. Russell Martin (five years, $82.5MM) and Brian McCann (five years, $80MM) signed similar contracts in free agency, but both are more than a half-decade old. It’s also arguable that Realmuto is better than both were when they signed. Certainly, he’s younger than Martin was when he signed in advance of his age-32 season. But Realmuto is also decidedly older than either Posey or Joe Mauer was when signing the two largest deals ever inked by a catcher. (Mauer received an eight-year, $184MM contract from the Twins in 2010.) Realmuto seems to lie somewhere between the Martin/McCann and Mauer/Posey levels.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed in the first installment of our 2020-21 Free Agent Power Rankings, Realmuto could very well become the first catcher to sign a $100MM+ deal in free agency if he’s unable to agree to terms on a deal. Whether he gets to that point will depend on whether he and the Phillies can find a middle ground and hammer out a new deal that’ll extend beyond his final season of club control.

Philadelphia’s comfort level in negotiations isn’t known, but a lack of progress would seem to indicate that the two sides aren’t that close at the moment. The Phils could certainly fit even a Goldschmidt-level annual value into the books long-term, though. They’re at $204MM in luxury obligations for the 2020 season but will see that number plummet to just under $119MM in 2021, when the luxury tax threshold rises to $210MM. An extension for Realmuto would largely be offset by the departure of Jake Arrieta, whose three-year, $75MM contract expires at season’s end.

Seranthony Dominguez Slated For MRI Following Setback

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March 12: Dominguez has an MRI scheduled for this afternoon, he tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). The right-hander said the discomfort he feels isn’t as bad as last season but added that he’s “really concerned” about the upcoming tests.

March 11: Phillies reliever Seranthony Dominguez has experienced a setback in his elbow rehab efforts, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. Details on his anticipated timeline remain unknown.

Dominguez had hoped to be ready for Opening Day and has appeared in some spring action. Unfortunately, he is said to have experienced some issues during his most recent outing on Sunday.

As Salisbury details, Dominguez went through a lengthy rest and rehab process last year after being diagnosed with an injury to his ulnar collateral ligament. He seemed to be ramping up well this spring after a nice long layoff, raising hopes that he’d be a notable part of the pen picture early in the season.

The Phillies would obviously benefit from the 2018 version of Dominguez. As a rookie, he threw 58 innings of 2.95 ERA ball. He took a step back while battling injury woes last year but still managed 10.6 K/9.

Perhaps it’s still possible that this’ll mostly be a blip. Whether or not Tommy John surgery will go back on the table remains to be seen.

14 NL East Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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We took a look Tuesday at 10 position players from the National League East who are hoping 2020 goes better than last year did. Let’s now explore an even larger selection of pitchers seeking rebound efforts this season…

Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Braves:

Foltynewicz was an indispensable part of the Braves’ rotation two years ago, but the beginning of last season went so poorly for him that the team optioned him to Triple-A in late June. Upon his return in August, Foltynewicz was a much better pitcher, his horrid performance in the Braves’ NLDS elimination game against the Cardinals notwithstanding. The two-time defending division champion Braves will need his August-September to carry over, as their rotation’s dealing with some uncertainty because of Cole Hamels’ shoulder problems.

Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets:

To be clear, last season was not a poor one for Syndergaard by any means. He amassed a personal-high 197 1/3 innings, continued to average upward of 97 mph on his fastball and posted 9.2 K/9 against 2.28 BB/9. Moreover, Syndergaard was a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the majors in average exit velocity against, expected weighted on-base average and hard-hit percentage, among other categories. On the other hand, his normally stellar run prevention hit career-worst levels. Syndergaard wound up with a 4.28 ERA/3.60 FIP. That’s fine, but it’s not the front-of-the-rotation type of production we’ve grown accustomed to seeing him log.

Rick Porcello/Michael Wacha, RHPs, Mets:

We’ll lump these two together because they’re both offseason signings who could factor into the back of the Mets’ rotation. Porcello, a former Cy Young winner with the Red Sox, continued to chew up innings last year (174 1/3), but he couldn’t keep runs off the board. His ERA (5.52) was dead last among qualified starters, while his 4.76 FIP checked in as the game’s seventh-worst figure. But the Mets took a $10MM gamble on the durable 31-year-old. That came after they spent $3MM on Wacha, a former Cardinal who – contrary to Porcello – has not been the picture of durability. Wacha has typically stopped runs at a quality clip, but that wasn’t the case last season – a year in which he shuffled between the Cardinals’ rotation and bullpen and concluded with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP over 126 2/3 frames. Career-worst walk and home run-to-fly ball rates of 3.91 and 22 percent, respectively, dragged him down.

Edwin Diaz/Jeurys Familia/Dellin Betances, RHPs, Mets:

Lots of Mets on this list, aren’t there? Diaz was supposed to be the team’s end-of-game savior last season after coming over in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. He turned in one of the greatest seasons in the history of relievers the year prior, so you can’t blame the Mets for expecting his excellence to continue. Instead, opposing hitters tattooed the 25-year-old for a 5.59 ERA/4.51 FIP and 2.33 home runs per nine across 58 innings, leading to seven blown saves in 33 attempts (Diaz went 57-of-61 in those situations in 2018). But if the HR rate and the .377 batting average on balls in play return to earth in 2020, Diaz should be OK. He did, after all, strike out 15.36 hitters per nine (against 3.41 walks) and average almost 98 mph on his fastball last year.

Like Familia, Diaz came to the Mets as a ballyhooed offseason pickup a year ago. As someone who pitched well for the Mets in his prior stint with the team, Familia was already a known commodity to the club. However, New York didn’t get the version of Familia it expected in 2019. He continued to throw hard (in the 96 mph range), but a bloated walk rate of 6.3 per nine contributed to an awful 5.70 ERA/4.88 FIP in 60 frames. Like Diaz, an inflated BABIP (.346) was among the contributors to Familia’s struggles, though he earned that to some degree with a 7 percent increase in hard-hit rate.

Betances is the lone member of this trio who’s not coming off a poor season. The longtime Yankee, whom the Mets signed to a $10.5MM guarantee on Christmas Eve, is just trying to bounce back from an injury-wrecked year. Betances only made one appearance last year after battling shoulder troubles. And when he was leaving the mound following that September outing, the four-time All-Star suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon.

Sean Doolittle/Roenis Elias, LHPs, Nationals:

Doolittle was incredibly dominant for the Nationals two years ago, and though he helped the team to a World Series last fall, his regular season wasn’t as productive. His ERA and FIP (4.05/4.25) each increased by more than two runs, while his strikeout, walk and groundball rates (9.9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 25.3 percent) were also markedly worse than they were during the previous season. Elias experienced a similar drop-off, and injuries limited him to four appearances for the Nats after they acquired him from the Mariners at the July 31 trade deadline. But he and Doolittle will head into the new season as the top two southpaws in Washington’s bullpen.

Adam Conley, LHP; Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Marlins:

The hard-throwing Conley was a fairly solid piece out of the Marlins’ bullpen in 2018. That wasn’t the case last season – a 60 2/3-inning campaign in which he pitched to a 6.53 ERA/5.19 FIP with 7.86 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 37.9 percent grounder rate. Conley also saw his swinging-strike rate fall by more than 4 percent, though he did give up fewer hard-hit balls, and a .351 BABIP didn’t help matters.

Steckenrider joined Conley two seasons ago in seemingly emerging as a respectable late-game arm for Miami. However, thanks in part to elbow troubles, he never really got off the ground last year. Steckenrider only tossed 14 1/3 innings, in which he yielded 10 earned runs on nine hits – including six home runs.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies:

Arrieta’s a former Cy Young winner with the Cubs who hasn’t performed as hoped since the Phillies signed him to a three-year, $75MM guarantee entering 2018. The 34-year-old dealt with a serious elbow injury last season, holding him to 135 2/3 innings (his fewest since 2013) and a 4.64 ERA/4.89 FIP.

Seranthony Dominguez/Victor Arano, RHPs, Phillies:

These two relievers were terrific out of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2018, but their health failed them last year. They combined for just 29 1/3 innings, most of which came from Dominguez. Whether they rebound this season will obviously depend in part on whether they’re actually able to take the mound with consistency. Arano, whom elbow surgery largely kept off the hill in 2019, does look as if he’s trending toward Opening Day readiness. That’s not the case for Dominguez, who just suffered a setback in his own recovery from elbow woes.

10 NL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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With the regular season approaching, we’re taking a look at hitters and pitchers from each division who are seeking bounce-back years in 2020. We’ve already covered the American League, so let’s head to the Senior Circuit and begin with 10 NL East hitters hoping to rebound from subpar 2019 showings this year.

Didi Gregorius, SS, Phillies:

With a one-year, $14MM guarantee, Gregorius was one of the Phillies’ highest-profile acquisitions during the offseason, though the former Yankees star landed the contract off a less-than-ideal platform year. After returning from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in June, the 30-year-old hit a below-average .238/.276/.441 and totaled only 0.9 fWAR over 344 plate appearances. Gregorius also wound up under the league average in several important Statcast categories. Nevertheless, as someone who put up no worse than 4.0 fWAR in both 2017 and ’18, the Phillies are banking on a rebound; otherwise, they can simply move on after the season.

Johan Camargo, 3B, Braves:

The switch-hitting Camargo was a 3.0-fWAR player two seasons ago, but he fell flat last year, turning in a minus-0.5 effort with a dismal .233/.279/.384 line in 248 plate appearances. Despite that, he’s in the running (along with Austin Riley) to start at third base this season for the Braves, who lost previous No. 1 option Josh Donaldson in free agency.

Yan Gomes, C, Nationals:

Gomes earned the lone All-Star nod of his career in 2018, his final season with the Indians, but saw his offensive production dip in Year 1 with the Nationals. A slow start doomed Gomes to a .223/.316/.389 line in 358 PA, though he did experience a major offensive rebound in the second half. Defensively, while Gomes did throw out 31 percent of would-be base thieves, his pitch-framing numbers fell off a cliff. Still, the Nationals brought him back for two years and $10MM to once again team with Kurt Suzuki.

Robinson Cano, 2B, Mets:

Cano was supposed to be the long-term answer at second for the Mets, who paid a pretty penny for him and closer Edwin Diaz in a trade with the Mariners in December 2018. Instead, the longtime star turned in the worst season of his excellent career, batting .256/.307/.428 in 423 trips to the plate during an injury-shortened campaign. Cano recorded far better numbers during the second half of the season, though, and ranked near the top of the league in multiple Statcast categories (average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage). So, it may be too soon to declare the 37-year-old done; at least, the Mets hope that’s the case.

Wilson Ramos, C, Mets:

Ramos was yet another of the Mets’ hyped pre-2019 pickups whose first season with the team didn’t go as hoped. The 32-year-old did notch a respectable batting line for his position, slashing .288/.351/.416 across 524 PA, but it paled in comparison to what he did the previous season. And Ramos wasn’t exactly a strength defensively. He threw out just 15 percent of would-be base stealers and ended up near the bottom of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

Jed Lowrie, INF, Mets:

There may not have been a more ill-fated addition for the Mets last offseason than Lowrie. Signed to a two-year, $20MM contract after back-to-back terrific seasons with the Athletics, multiple injuries limited Lowrie to nine games and eight plate appearances. The 35-year-old isn’t even a lock to participate this season, as he continues to deal with leg troubles. Even if Lowrie does play, he’s not slated to be anything more than a backup right now. Perhaps that will change as the season goes along, but Lowrie will have to get healthy first.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets:

Hey, another Met! Cespedes is coming off an injury-ravaged couple years – including an ailment he suffered during a run-in with a wild boar – but seems to be making progress now. The talent’s there for a bounce-back campaign, but if your stance is “I’ll believe it when I see it,” you’re not alone.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets:

Maybe we should change the name of this list to “Mets Hitters Who Are Looking For Bounce-Back Seasons.” Nimmo was the most productive of this group last year, at least offensively, but his output fell shy of his coming-out party in 2018. Injuries held the on-base machine to 69 games, 254 PA, a .221/.375/.407 line and 1.3 fWAR. Meanwhile, his hard-hit percentage plummeted by seven points and his expected weighted on-base average dropped from .352 to .330, per Statcast.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Marlins:

Aguilar was among the game’s most prolific sluggers as a member of the Brewers in 2018, when he registered a 134 wRC+ and amassed 35 home runs. But he was unable to follow it up during a 2019 divided between Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. Aguilar concluded with an uninspiring .236/.325/.389 line and 12 homers across 389 trips to the plate. However, according to Statcast (.334 xwOBA versus .307 real wOBA), he may have deserved better. The Marlins are banking on that after plucking the 29-year-old off waivers over the winter.

Francisco Cervelli, C, Marlins:

Like Aguilar, Cervelli’s production dropped precipitously in 2019. The 34-year-old’s longtime concussion problems came to the forefront again, holding him to 160 PA of replacement-level production. But Cervelli was a very good contributor just two seasons ago, and for $2MM, Miami’s hoping he’ll serve as a solid complement and mentor to Jorge Alfaro.

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