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Marcell Ozuna “Very Unlikely” To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna is “very unlikely” to accept the $17.8MM qualifying offer made to him by the Cardinals, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ozuna was seen as one of the few recipients who could consider accepting the one-year deal, but Heyman suggests that there is a robust market for Ozuna’s services.

While it was perhaps never likely that Ozuna would take the qualifying offer to stick around in St. Louis for another year, he stood out as one of the ten QO recipients who could be a candidate to accept in lieu of entering the open market. Ozuna’s retractors might pin the outfielder as one of the hitters who could suffer most in baseball’s notoriously stingy free agency; as a solid but unspectacular hitter who won’t carry a lineup and who doesn’t stand out on defense, critics might put him in Mike Moustakas territory.

That’s not to say he doesn’t offer any value. Ozuna is just two years removed from a breakout season in Miami’s pitcher-friendly ballpark. While he’s no longer the Gold Glover he was in 2017, Ozuna still grades out solidly as a defensive outfielder. By free agent standards, he’s on the younger side, and there’s reason to believe that he’s capable of more than the .241/.328/.472 line he posted in his second year in St. Louis; his .382 expected wOBA far outclassed his actual .336 mark, suggesting that Ozuna’s true talent level is a notch above his Cardinals output.

Assuming that Ozuna indeed elects to hit free agency, it’s not a foregone conclusions that the 28-year-old will play in a new uniform next year. Ozuna has expressed his desire to remain with the Cardinals, and while the organization has been less steadfast in their interest, it has been recently reported that the two sides are prepared to discuss a multiyear contract. By virtue of extending the QO, the club has demonstrated a willingness to keep Ozuna at a considerable cost, but only for one year—we’ll see how far they’re willing to go on a multiyear commitment.

Otherwise, Ozuna will reach free agency for the first time with a compensatory draft pick attached to him. We’ve seen in recent years that this additional price has been a deterrent for mid-range free agents, and Ozuna’s market will no doubt take a hit as a result, though to what extent it’s not clear. Regardless of the draft pick, Ozuna has plenty of desirable qualities that should make him an attractive target to a flurry of clubs, like Heyman notes; MLBTR projects Ozuna to receive a three year, $45MM contract—while that’s a lower projection that other outlets, such a deal would still give Ozuna the second-highest payday among free agent corner outfielders (behind only Nick Castellanos).

NL Notes: Carpenter, Giants, Mets

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A quick look around the National League…

  • The 2019 season was surprisingly pedestrian for Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter, a normally excellent producer who fell flat after the team signed him to a two-year, $39MM extension in April. Carpenter stepped to the plate 492 times and hit a mediocre .226/.334/.392 with 15 home runs, giving him the lowest wRC+ (95) and fWAR (1.2) he has posted over a full season since debuting in 2011. But Carpenter, who will turn 34 later this month, seemingly hasn’t lost the confidence of Cardinals brass. ”‘Carp’ obviously will have a better season, we expect. He’s highly motivated,” chairman Bill DeWitt said this week (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak echoed that sentiment, saying the Cardinals’ confidence in Carpenter is “high” and calling this year “an outlier.” Of course, the Cardinals don’t have much choice but to publicly show faith in Carpenter, whom they’re likely stuck with because of the money left on his contract and his no-trade clause.
  • As of last week, Royals quality control coach Pedro Grifol was reportedly one of the finalists to become the Giants’ next manager. That no longer seems to be the case, though. Grifol is now completely out of the race, according to the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea, who names ex-Phillies manager Gabe Kapler, current Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as the last candidates standing. Grifol, Kapler, Espada and Quartaro make up four of 10-plus candidates who have interviewed with the Giants, per Shea. There’s no deadline to hire a new skipper, however, and with the Giants one of just two teams without a manager, there’s seemingly no reason to rush.
  • The Mets negotiated with relievers Daniel Hudson and Jake Diekman when they were free agents a year ago, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. The club ultimately didn’t land either, instead watching Hudson sign with the Angels on a minor league contract and Diekman land with the Royals for a guaranteed $2.75MM. Hudson then wound up with the Blue Jays and finished the season as a member of the Nationals, with whom he emerged as one of many key cogs during their improbable World Series run. Diekman concluded the campaign with the Athletics, who traded for him in July. Now that Hudson and Diekman are back on the open market, the Mets  – who remain in need of competent relievers – could again push for one or both, though there’s no indication they plan on doing so.

Cardinals Negotiating New Deal With Adam Wainwright

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in his season-ending press conference today that the team is attempting to work out a new deal with veteran righty Adam Wainwright. It seems Wainwright wishes to return to the fold and that the Cards would like to have him.

This doesn’t come as a surprise, given Wainwright’s strong bounceback showing in 2019. MLBTR predicted just yesterday that he’d return again to the St. Louis organization — with the only real doubt being whether he’d decide to suit up once more at 38 years of age.

Mozeliak indicated that there isn’t a deal in place at present, but discussions are expected to take place over the next week or two, with the hope being that the sides will line up for yet another campaign. That’d mark a 15th big league season for Wainwright, who has spent his entire Major League tenure with the Cardinals. The three-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young runner-up has amassed 2103 2/3 innings along the way and pitched to a 3.39 ERA with averages of 7.6 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s also given the Cards 105 2/3 innings of postseason work, notching a 2.81 ERA in that time.

While there was some question at the end of the 2018 season as to whether Wainwright had much of anything left in the tank, he once again proved his mettle with a solid 2019 campaign. The elder statesman of the St. Louis rotation logged 171 2/3 frames — his most since 2016 — and worked to a 4.19 ERA with a 153-to-64 K/BB ratio.

Wainwright may not be the staff ace that he once was, but the Cards no longer need him to function in that capacity (not that they’d complain about an unexpected return to 2009-10 form). Rather, burgeoning star Jack Flaherty has stepped up as the staff leader alongside the durable Miles Mikolas and another up-and-coming righty, Dakota Hudson. Assuming a new deal with Wainwright does indeed come to fruition, that he’ll join that trio and perhaps Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes or an outside addition in rounding out the Cardinals’ starting staff next season.

Another one-year arrangement seems likely, given Wainwright’s age, but he’ll surely be in line for a larger base salary than the modest $2MM he took on last year’s “prove-it” deal. Wainwright ultimately maxed out his incentives package and took home a $10MM total — and something closer to that range seems more plausible this time around.

Cardinals Extend John Mozeliak, Mike Girsch, Mike Shildt

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The Cardinals have announced new deals for three key members of their leadership, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers (links to Twitter). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak gets three new years, while top lieutenant and GM Mike Girsch receives two more on top of his 2020 deal.

There’s continuity as well in the dugout. Skipper Mike Schildt will receive a new three-year arrangement that keeps him at the helm through 2022. His entire coaching staff will also be returning.

Last we checked on the contract status of Mozeliak and Girsch, they had reached new deals with the club that aligned with promotions in the middle of the 2017 season. Both reportedly signed on through 2020. It seems they’ll both remain on the same track, through the ’22 campaign, though the word out of the presser was a bit confusing on that front.

As for Shildt, he had already inked a deal upon being named the permanent manager in August of 2018. He’ll now also be bumped out through the 2022 season.

This news comes on the heels of a strong 2019 campaign in which the Cards returned to the postseason by hanging on in a tight NL Central. Despite suffering a sweep in the NLCS, the campaign was unquestionably a success. The organization will face a difficult task to repeat but certainly has a roster that remains set up to contend.

Cardinals, Marcell Ozuna To Discuss Multiyear Deal

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Cardinals left fielder Marcell Ozuna was one of 10 players to receive a qualifying offer before the deadline Monday. Should he turn it down, Ozuna will reach free agency with draft-pick compensation hanging over his head. But if Ozuna accepts, he’d return to the Cardinals in 2020 on a $17.8MM price tag. As of now, though, there’s at least some chance of a multiyear contract between the Cardinals and Ozuna that would negate the qualifying offer. The club has recently talked with Ozuna’s agent, Melvin Roman of MDR Sports Management, and will meet again with him in the next 10 days to explore a new contract, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Ozuna has until Nov. 14 to take or reject the QO.

This is the first reported instance of the Cardinals showing serious interest in re-signing Ozuna, undoubtedly one of the premier unsigned position players in baseball. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Ozuna has made it known on multiple occasions he’d like to stay in St. Louis, where he has played since the Cardinals acquired him from the Marlins entering the 2018 campaign.

Ozuna was coming off a tremendous season when the Cardinals traded for him, though he has been more good than exemplary since then. He’s now on the heels of a 2.8-fWAR campaign in which he hit .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and a personal-best 12 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. Ozuna’s production led to a 110 wRC+, meaning he was 10 percent better than the league-average offensive player. That’s obviously closer to solid than stellar, but the longtime Statcast darling did continue to thrive in that regard this season. Ozuna’s expected weighted on-base average (.382) blew past his real wOBA (.336) and ranked in the top 8 percent of baseball. His hard-hit rate (49.2 percent) was even better, defeating all but 4 percent of hitters.

Ozuna’s reps are likely to push his Statcast excellence when trying to secure a new deal for their client. And MLBTR expects Ozuna to do fairly well on the market despite a QO, as his projection (three years, $45MM) ranks as our 11th-highest guarantee among free agents and falls behind just one other corner outfielder (Nicholas Castellanos) in a market rife with flawed options. Whether the Cardinals would dole out that type of money over a multiyear period is up in the air, but by extending a QO, they’ve already shown a willingness to keep Ozuna around at a pricey figure for at least another season. For now, with Ozuna’s status in limbo, the reigning National League Central champions count Dexter Fowler, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Lane Thomas, Yairo Munoz, Randy Arozarena and coveted prospect Dylan Carlson among their outfield options who remain under control.

10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

Cardinals Outright Joe Hudson

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The Cardinals announced today that they have outrighted catcher Joe Hudson off of their 40-man roster. His roster spot was needed with several players being reinstated following 60-day injured list stints.

Hudson, 28, is a former sixth-round pick who has seen very brief MLB action in each of the past two campaigns. He owns a modest .249/.323/.411 slash line over 383 plate appearances at Triple-A since the start of 2018. As is often the case with offensively limited backstops of this ilk, Hudson is primarily valued for his sturdy glovework behind the plate.

Angels Claim Mike Mayers

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The Angels announced that they have claimed righty Mike Mayers off waivers from the Cardinals. The out of options hurler will compete for a pen job in camp if he can stick on the Los Angeles 40-man roster the rest of the winter.

Mayers, 27, is coming off of a forgettable campaign in St. Louis. He was given just 19 innings, over which he allowed 14 earned runs with a 16:11 K/BB ratio. In his 80 2/3 total frames at the game’s highest level, Mayers has worked to a 7.03 ERA.

Though the results clearly haven’t been there at the game’s highest level, Mayers has shown a mid-nineties fastball. He has also been quite effective at Triple-A. This past year, he turned in twenty frames of 3.15 ERA pitching there with 24 strikeouts and seven walks.

NL Notes: Cubs, Epstein, Cardinals, Lindor, Padres

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For those looking for an indication of the Cubs’ offseason spending strategy, this week’s comments from president Theo Epstein provided little satisfaction–even if Epstein has previously shown a willingness to lift the curtain on club plans. “As an organization, we’re not talking about payroll or luxury tax at all,” Epstein is quoted as saying in an article from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. “I feel like every time we’ve been at all specific, or even allowed people to make inferences from things we’ve said, it just puts us in a hole strategically.”

While North Side fans would likely love for the club to pursue upper-echelon free agents like Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon, Bastian calculates that such a development is unlikely given the club’s current payroll commitments. Chicago is accountable for roughly $107MM toward eight contracts next season, before providing for team options on Anthony Rizzo ($16.5MM) and Jose Quintana ($10.5MM). The Cubs opened 2019 with a payroll in excess of $203MM, before finishing with a disappointing 84-78 record and missing the playoffs.

In more news from around the NL…

  • After the Dodgers were connected to Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor this week, is it possible the Cardinals could also take a run at Cleveland’s superstar infielder? That’s a question pondered by Mark Saxon in a reader mailbag for The Athletic–with Saxon venturing that such a pursuit could be manageable for St. Louis (link). While it’s important to underline that this is only the speculation of one writer, Saxon draws up a potential trade package headlined by prospect Nolan Gorman and one of Paul DeJong, Tommy Edman, or Kolten Wong. While such a hypothetical package has its merits (and it’s laudable for a writer to go out on a limb regarding trade scenarios), it is worth pointing out that Gorman, at 19, is likely two years away from being considered an MLB-ready contributor. MLBTR readers, of course, took their own crack at projecting Lindor’s future in a recent poll.
  • After a 2019 season that saw the Padres use eight different rookie pitchers in their starting rotation, writer AJ Cassavell of MLB.com notes that–strange though it may sound–the club is likely more focused on offense heading into the offseason (link). As Cassavell notes, pitching prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino promise to aid a 2020 rotation mix that includes Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, Dinelson Lamet, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, and Cal Quantrill, whereas the projected lineup of new manager Jayce Tingler provides a few more question marks. The veteran scribe underscores that, by virtue of wRC+, San Diego received worse-than-average production at every position save for shortstop in 2019. Although Cassavell offers second base, catcher, and outfield as areas in need of an upgrade, it might be added that San Diego ran out well-regarded rookies at those spots for much of 2019 in Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, and Josh Naylor. It stands to reason that the club could simply look for sophomore improvements at those particular positions while moving to offset Eric Hosmer’s tremendous struggles against left-handed pitching (59 wRC+ against lefties in 2019) by way of a first base platoon addition.

NL Notes: Urias, Rockies, Wieters, Marlins

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We’ve already seen a pair of headline-grabbing moves by National League clubs this morning. We’ll round up some smaller reports from the Senior Circuit.

  • The Padres aren’t prepared to hand the second base job to Luis Urías without competition, reports A.J. Cassavell of MLB.com as part of a reader mailbag. While the organization remains bullish on the 22-year-old long-term, the Pads must find alternative options in case his early-career woes persist, Cassavell opines. Despite elite minor-league numbers, Urías has gotten off to a rocky start as a big leaguer, slashing just .221/.318/.331 (79 wRC+) in his first 302 MLB plate appearances. Interestingly, Cassavell expects the Padres to at least gauge rival teams’ interest in Urías- which would surely be robust- this offseason, if for no other reason than to “learn what (he would) be worth.”
  • The Rockies are likely to non-tender pitchers Chad Bettis and Tyler Anderson, observes the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders in a broader look at the upcoming offseason. Both Bettis and Anderson were useful back-end starters for Colorado not too long ago, although injuries and/or underperformance made this outcome inevitable for each. Bettis slogged to a 6.08 ERA in 39 appearances (36 in relief) this season. Anderson, meanwhile, was limited to five starts before suffering a season-ending knee injury, and Saunders reiterates that he’s not expected to be fully recovered by next spring. Jettisoning Bettis (projected $3.8MM salary) and Anderson (projected $2.625MM salary) will save payroll-tight Colorado around $6-7MM.
  • The Cardinals are likely to pursue another one-year deal with catcher Matt Wieters, opines Anne Rogers of MLB.com as part of a mailbag. The 33-year-old signed with St. Louis for $1.5MM last offseason and figures to command a similar salary this go-round, Rogers adds. Wieters again ranked among the worst defensive catchers in baseball this season, but he offers respectable power for a catcher (.214/.268/.435 in 183 PA in 2019). The Cardinals also value Wieters’ veteran presence and switch-hitting bat off the bench, Rogers adds.
  • The Marlins are set to hire Wellington Cepeda as bullpen coach, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Cepeda, 42, managed the Diamondbacks’ rookie-level Arizona League affiliate in 2019, his first season as a minor-league skipper. Cepeda has a background as a minor-league pitching coach, Frisaro adds. He’ll work with pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, Jr., who is returning for a second season. Cepeda will have his work cut out for him, as Miami’s young bullpen was among MLB’s worst in 2019.
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