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American League Injury Situations That May Impact The Trade Deadline

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2017 at 11:47am CDT

With the deadline approaching quickly, teams will be forced to make tough decisions. Health issues will play a large role in complicating those decisions. In some cases, when a player is known to be out for the entire season, acting decisively to find a replacement makes clear sense. But there are plenty of unresolved health issues throughout the game that will likely have significant impacts on a team’s approach to the deadline. Teams will be gathering information on internal players and on possible targets; here are a few players whose uncertain health status will be watched closely:

Carson Smith & Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: While Pablo Sandoval is nominally on the DL, and perhaps still factors into the team’s needs at third base, the real action is in the pitching staff. Smith could yet represent a significant pen arm, but it’s still unclear how much (if at all) he’ll contribute. And while Rodriguez has been excellent, and seems slated to return shortly from the DL, his recurring knee problems could become a major near-term concern.

Matt Andriese, Rays: There have been plenty of suggestions that the Rays could consider dealing a starter — particularly, pending free agent Alex Cobb — even if they’re in contention. But that’d be much harder to do if Andriese isn’t showing clear signs of returning to full health. Even if he is, the club could elect to stand pat, perhaps deciding to use the abundance of starting options to bolster the relief corps rather than spending young talent to get a new bullpen arm.

Greg Bird & Tyler Austin, Yankees: Perhaps the ship has sailed on the Yanks fully relying on Bird in the second half. After all, he struggled when he was available and is dealing with an ankle injury that does not appear to come with a straightforward solution. And it’s unclear just how much stock the Yankees would put in Austin even if he were at full health. Still, the injury signals coming from these two over the next few weeks could impact the Bronx Bombers’ deadline plans, particularly since the organization is clearly looking to avoid parting with significant prospects unless strictly necessary.

J.J. Hardy, Orioles: Chris Davis is on the shelf as well, though the team’s glut of corner options allows them to weather that storm fairly well. It’s another story with Hardy, who is still one to three weeks from even resuming baseball activities. The Orioles have been in a free fall since mid-May, but GM Dan Duquette was maintaining a buyer’s outlook as recently as late June, but more recent suggestions indicated that the team is presently on the fence. If the O’s perform well in the first two weeks coming out of the break, Hardy’s absence creates a potential area of need.

Danny Salazar, Indians: Shoulder issues have significantly limited the talented right-hander, who is working back towards the majors at present. If he can return to full health, Salazar could conceivably get back to providing quality innings from the rotation — or, at least, the bullpen. If not, the team’s possible pitching needs will be all the more clear.

Hector Santiago, Twins: With a somewhat mysterious and lingering back issue, the southpaw is a question mark for Minnesota in the second half. The team is shopping for young starters regardless, but the urgency of that effort — if not also the possibility of considering at least a modest rental investment — could hinge in part upon Santiago’s progress.

Nate Karns, Royals: Kansas City is reportedly looking to augment the back of its rotation, which is likely in no small part due to the fact that the return of Karns is looking less and less likely. The last update on Karns suggested that thoracic outlet surgery may very well be in his future. If he is indeed lost for the season, as lefty Matt Strahm recently was, the Royals’ need to snag a back-of-the-rotation rental becomes more acute.

Dallas Keuchel & Collin McHugh, Astros: The AL West crown is already nearly in hand for Houston, but that doesn’t mean the team is without its needs. The ’Stros have the luxury of looking ahead to the postseason, but still clearly would like to add to the top of the rotation. So long as Keuchel and McHugh are moving back toward the major league mound, the addition of a starter will remain classified as a strong want. But if either (particularly Keuchel) show any worrying signs, the organization will surely feel a much greater urgency to add an arm that can help drive the team through the postseason.

Matt Shoemaker, Angels: Obviously, Mike Trout is of even greater concern. But all indications are that he’s good to go beginning this Friday. For the Angels, deciding whether it’s worth adding to the roster at the deadline could hinge more upon the health of the rotation. Shoemaker will get checked out before hopefully beginning a throwing program within the week; whether he is progressing toward a return will be important to the Halos’ plans. (Honorable mention: Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs, who are on longer-fuse rehab paths.)

Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners: It’s not clear at this point whether Seattle can expect much at all from the veteran down the stretch. Seattle is already without Drew Smyly for the year due to Tommy John surgery. If Iwakuma can’t begin to make his way back from shoulder problems before the deadline –and if the team can hang in the Wild Card hunt over the next two weeks — then pursuit of a starter would make all the more sense.

Keone Kela & Jake Diekman, Rangers: The Texas pen has produced plenty of hand-wringing this year. Ironically, perhaps, the first crack seemed to form with Kela’s stunning demotion to start the year, owing to behavioral issues. But he has been effective since making his way back, pitching his way into consideration for the closer’s role that has been vacated by Sam Dyson and Matt Bush. Now, however, Kela is dealing with shoulder soreness; his status could help dictate the team’s needs over the coming weeks. Diekman is even more of a question mark after surgery to treat ulcerative colits cost him the entire first half. He’s throwing from flat ground as of early July, and a return to the mound would obviously be a potential boon for the Texas relief corps. But, they also can’t fully know how much to expect from him in the second half given the unique nature of his medical status.

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Dee Gordon Drawing Interest From Angels, Blue Jays, Royals

By Jeff Todd | July 10, 2017 at 9:26pm CDT

At least three teams have expressed some interest in Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. The Angels, Blue Jays, and Royals have each “at least mentioned” the infielder as a possible deadline target, per Heyman.

Gordon, 29, hasn’t continued the form he showed in 2015, his first season with Miami. He slashed a career-best .333/.359/.418 — helped along by a .383 batting average on balls in play — and swiped 58 bags that year. With quality glovework mixed in, Gordon was valued at 4.7 fWAR and earned himself a five-year, $50MM extension.

He has had a somewhat redemptive 2017 season, at least, after his second season with the Marlins was marred by a PED suspension and significant performance decline. In his 375 plate appearances this year, Gordon owns a .295/.342/.358 batting line and has already stolen 32 bases.

While there isn’t immense need at second base around the game, Gordon would be a future asset for any acquiring team. And with his immense speed and highly rated glovework, he’d also be a particularly useful postseason roster piece.

All said, Gordon’s contract seems fairly reasonable, though it’s certainly not the bargain the Marlins once hoped it would be. The deal promises Gordon $7.5MM this year and $38MM over the three seasons to come — which includes a $1MM buyout on a $14MM option for 2021. (That option would be guaranteed if Gordon reaches 600 plate appearances in 2020 or 1,200 over that and the prior season.)

It’s not yet clear just what kinds of trade scenarios might entice the Marlins. Presumably, though, the focus would be on shedding as much of the financial commitment as possible. It’s not difficult to see the reason for interest from the teams that Heyman lists, as the Halos, Jays, and Royals have each had their share of uncertainty at second base. But it’s an open question whether those or any other teams would really be willing to take on most or all of Gordon’s contract.

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AL Notes: Quintana, Royals, Vargas, Rays

By Connor Byrne | July 9, 2017 at 12:02pm CDT

Scouts from the Yankees, Orioles, Royals, Angels, Blue Jays and Cardinals were in Colorado watching White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana pitch on Saturday, according to Scott Merkin of MLB.com. Some of those teams likely don’t have the prospect capital to assemble a package for the on-the-block Quintana, so observing his outing may have been due diligence in certain cases (or those clubs could’ve been on hand to scout other players). Regardless, Quintana didn’t disappoint, striking out 10 over 5 1/3 innings, after which he indicated that his preference is to remain with the White Sox. At the same time, Quintana acknowledged that the decision is up to team brass. “Absolutely. I want to stay here,” he said.“But they know what’s the best for us, so I just try to do my job and that’s it.”

More from the American League:

  • Royals right-handed pitching prospect Ashe Russell, 20, “is going through some personal things” and has taken a “mental break” from baseball, assistant general manager J.J. Picollo told Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star earlier this week. Russell’s agent, Steve Canter, addressed his client’s status Saturday, telling FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that the 2015 first-round pick “absolutely loves the game” and will return to it. “Ashe Russell hasn’t quit baseball,” said Canter. “He’s having trouble with his pitching mechanics. He’s made tons of progress but needed a change of scenery away from the complex in Surprise.”
  • At the major league level, the Royals have gotten stunning production this season from soft-tossing left-hander Jason Vargas, who has managed an AL-best 2.62 ERA over 106 1/3 frames in his age-34 campaign. The first-time All-Star hadn’t eclipsed the 100-inning mark since 2014, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2015 after accruing just 43 IP that year and only racked up 12 frames in his return last season. As Dodd details, it seems Vargas is actually benefiting from having suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. While Vargas was rehabbing, Royals pitching coach Dave Eiland noticed that his release point had dropped roughly 2 inches. That arm slot adjustment has helped the impending free agent’s change-up go from good to dominant, writes Dodd, who notes that FanGraphs ranks Vargas’ change as the most valuable in the league this year. “They don’t see it,” Eiland said of hitters. “The arm speed. The delivery. They can’t pick it up.”
  • GM Erik Neader spoke with Mark Feinsand of MLB.com about the Rays’ 2017 success and suggested that the playoff contenders will attempt to upgrade around the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. “I think it’s important to never take situations where you’re in it competitively for granted,” stated Neander, whose 46-43 team is tied with Minnesota for the AL’s second wild-card spot. “The way the standings are right now, we’re definitely in the mix. You always have to balance; there’s always a premium to adding immediate contributions to your Major League team, and that typically comes at a cost to the future of your organization beyond the current year.” While it doesn’t seem as if a significant move is coming, the Rays will look to address their bullpen, reports Feinsand. Rays relievers rank toward the bottom of the majors in both ERA (22nd) and fWAR (18th), though Brad Boxberger’s recent return from injury should help their cause.
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Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Ashe Russell Jason Vargas Jose Quintana

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Cafardo’s Latest: Neshek, Royals, BoSox, Yanks, Cobb, Prado

By Connor Byrne | July 8, 2017 at 8:23pm CDT

The latest pre-trade deadline rumblings from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • The Royals, Red Sox and Yankees are among the teams that have scouted Phillies reliever Pat Neshek, according to Cafardo. They join the Nationals as clubs with known interest in the right-handed Neshek, who is likely on other bullpen-needy teams’ radars, too. The 36-year-old Neshek joined the Phillies last offseason in a salary-dumping deal with the Astros, but the $6.5MM man should warrant a much stronger return at the deadline. An impending free agent, Neshek is in the midst of his second All-Star season, having logged a 1.31 ERA, 8.91 K/9 and 1.31 BB/9 over 34 1/3 innings.
  • With the Rays in the thick of the American League playoff race, it appears soon-to-be free agent righty Alex Cobb will finish the season in Tampa Bay. “If we’re in it, I don’t think Alex Cobb is going anywhere,” a Rays official told Cafardo. The Rays will likely lose Cobb for nothing at season’s end, then, though moving him this summer would seemingly be a blow to their playoff hopes. In Cobb’s first extensive action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015, the 29-year-old has put up a 3.75 ERA (4.13 FIP), 5.93 K/9, 2.34 BB/9 and a 45.4 percent ground-ball rate across 115 1/3 frames.
  • The Red Sox and Yankees have checked in on Marlins third baseman Martin Prado, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today previously reported, but Cafardo relays that Boston and New York have concerns over the 33-year-old’s contract. Prado is due roughly $34MM through 2019, which is problematic for both teams because they’re trying to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold. As such, the Red Sox and Yankees have asked the Marlins to eat some of the money on Prado’s deal. Injuries have limited Prado to just 123 plate appearances this season, and he has hit a meager .282/.309/.402. Nevertheless, both the Sox and Yankees admire his “leadership, hustle, and devotion to the game,” writes Cafardo. The Bombers are already quite familiar with Prado, of course, as he spent the second half of the 2014 campaign in the Bronx.
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Boston Red Sox Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Tampa Bay Rays Alex Cobb Martin Prado Pat Neshek

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Minor MLB Transactions: 7/7/17

By Jeff Todd | July 7, 2017 at 6:44pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • The Padres have outrighted infielder Chase d’Arnaud, per a club announcement. The 30-year-old lost his roster spot in San Diego after recording just seven hits in 51 plate appearances. He has also appeared briefly this year for the Braves and Red Sox, marking his sixth season of MLB action. The versatile infielder owns only a .223/.278/.306 batting line in 499 total MLB plate appearances.
  • Also outrighted to Triple-A was Royals righty Seth Maness, per Kansas City. He has made it back from a partial UCL tear, helping to pioneer primary repair surgery in the process, but was not successful upon his return to the majors. The 28-year-old surrendered 16 base hits (albeit only four earned runs) in his 9 2/3 innings with the Royals and struggled also in his Triple-A time. But perhaps there’s still hope of a rebound for a pitcher who put up loads of good innings for the Cardinals over the prior four campaigns.
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Royals In Market For Pitching Upgrades, May Pursue Rotation Rentals

By Steve Adams | July 6, 2017 at 12:49pm CDT

On the heels of a 22-10 run over their past 32 contests, the Royals are in the market for upgrades in both their rotation and the bullpen, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman.

“We’re evaluating the landscape, and paying close attention to what may be available in the pitching market,” GM Dayton Moore tells Heyman. “…We’re looking to improve our roster and make it more balanced for the second half. … I don’t know why anyone thought we’d be sellers.” Those comments largely back up recent statements made by manager Ned Yost on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and to reporters following last night’s game (link via the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd).

Heyman goes on to add that the Royals aren’t likely to have too much payroll flexibility due to the fact that they entered the season with a franchise-record $145MM payroll. However, there’s a belief that Kansas City is open to adding a veteran starter on an expiring contract, according to Heyman. A look at MLBTR’s list of 2017-18 free agents shows starters that fit the bill, though obviously not all of those arms are available in trades, and some may not fit into an apparently tight Royals budget.

The following names are purely my own speculation, but if the Royals are aiming to add affordable rotation rentals, any of this bunch could make some sense (listed from lowest salary to highest salary):

  • Trevor Cahill: Cahill was only just activated off the disabled list after missing seven weeks due to a strained right shoulder. While he doesn’t come with much in the way of name value these days, Cahill has broken out in his return to a big league rotation, throwing 45 2/3 innings with 10.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 62.3 percent ground-ball rate. That’s led to a 2.96 ERA that is backed by a 2.98 FIP, 3.25 xFIP and 3.51 SIERA. He’s earning just $1.75MM in 2017, so from a financial standpoint, he’s an ideal fit.
  • Jhoulys Chacin: Teammates with Cahill, Chacin is also earning $1.75MM this year. He’s been the more durable of the two, and although he posted terrible numbers early in the year, he’s logged a 2.98 ERA with a 39-to-15 K/BB ratio and a 50.4 percent grounder rate over his past 42 1/3 innings. He’s hardly an impact upgrade, but right now it doesn’t look like there’ll be an impact rental available at all.
  • Scott Feldman: The 34-year-old has been the Reds’ best starter this season, turning in 102 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball. Feldman’s 7.5 K/9 mark is the best of his career, and he’s averaging a reasonable 2.9 walks per nine innings with a 45 percent ground-ball rate. Despite playing his home games at Great American Ball Park, he’s managed to limit home runs (1.1 HR/9). Feldman has a cheap $2.3MM base salary, though he’s already added $1.3MM worth of incentives and will tack on another $300K after his 20th start. Since this is all speculative anyhow, the Reds have a number of shorter-term bullpen pieces that could move (e.g. Drew Storen, Blake Wood) plus a shortstop that would be a significant upgrade for the Royals’ infield.
  • Alex Cobb: It’s worth debating whether Cobb will even be available because of the fact that the Rays are contending, but Tampa Bay will almost certainly lose him for nothing this offseason as a free agent rather than make him a qualifying offer that could top $18MM. Cobb carries a 4.01 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent grounder rate in 107 2/3 innings. He hasn’t been the borderline ace that he was prior to Tommy John surgery, but he’s earning an affordable $4.2MM. From the Rays’ vantage point, they’ll get Matt Andriese back in August while Jose De Leon and Blake Snell wait in the wings for full-time rotation spots. And, Jacob Faria has already laid claim to a starting job with five brilliant starts.
  • Derek Holland: Holland has given the division-rival White Sox 16 starts of 4.52 ERA ball and a total of 87 1/3 innings, but his production has cratered over the past month or so. He’s averaging 7.8 K/9 but 3.7 BB/9 and 1.75 HR/9. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all actually feel that he’s been somewhat fortunate to hold down that 4.52 ERA. Holland is affordable, though, with a $6MM base salary and $2MM worth of incentives ($1MM for reaching 150 innings and another $1MM for 200 frames).
  • Lance Lynn: As is the case with Cobb, Lynn is no lock to be available. The Cards are a manageable 5.5 games out of the NL Central lead and may take their deadline course of action down to the wire. However, they could also simply slide Luke Weaver into Lynn’s rotation spot, so there’s room to move him even if they still aim to contend. Lynn has a 3.87 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 42.3 percent ground-ball rate through 95 1/3 innings in his first year back from Tommy John. But, he’s also been torched for 1.9 HR/9, as 19.6 percent of the fly-balls he’s yielded have left the yard. That’s a 10 percent departure from his career mark of 9.3 percent, so perhaps the home run spike is somewhat fluky. If the Royals (or another club) believes him capable of reigning in the homers, Lynn’s $7.5MM salary is hardly backbreaking.
  • Jaime Garcia: Garcia has bombed over his past four starts, allowing five runs or more in each outing. He’s still sporting a 4.55 ERA on the season with a 54.3 percent ground-ball rate, 6.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. None of those are especially eye-catching, and the Royals may well wish the Braves to pay down some of the $5.7MM that remains on his $12MM salary. The Braves, though, are surely open to moving Garcia, who looks to be a steadier option than the Royals’ current fifth starter, Travis Wood.

Other potentially available rentals include Jeremy Hellickson, Johnny Cueto, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano, though each of that bunch makes more than anyone listed here and/or has struggled on the mound thus far. Yu Darvish would be the only potential ace that’d be available as a rental, but he’s reportedly likely to stay put even if the Rangers fall out of the race, and the asking price on him would be exorbitant anyhow.

From a broader perspective, Moore’s comments seem to throw cold water on any suggestion that Kansas City would entertain the thought of trading key impending free agents like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jason Vargas and Mike Minor. (Alcides Escobar, too, is a free agent, though his lack of production makes him a tough sell as a trade candidate anyhow.) Those names have all recently fallen off of MLBTR’s list of this summer’s top 60 trade candidates.

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AL Central Notes: Royals, Verlander, Norris, Twins

By Steve Adams | July 6, 2017 at 9:27am CDT

While manager Ned Yost won’t be the one ultimately calling the shots prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, the Royals’ skipper didn’t mince words in a recent appearance with Casey Stern on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). Yost said the Royals are fully planning to function as buyers and not sellers over the next several weeks. “We’re going for this thing,” said Yost, whose Royals currently sit at 44-40 — a half-game back from the division-leading Indians. The Royals still have another 19 games before the non-waiver deadline, but they’ve certainly positioned themselves well over the past month or so, playing at a 22-10 pace since early June.

More from the division…

  • Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander has seen his name pop up more and more on the rumor circuit, but the former AL Cy Young winner told reporters that he’s not at all focused on that possibility (via George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press). Moreover, Verlander’s comments suggest that, to this point, he has not been approached about the possibility of waiving his no-trade clause. “[GM Al Avila] has been very forthcoming with myself,” said Verlander. “He said don’t listen to everything that’s out there. If there’s anything that comes to fruition I’ll be the first to talk to you about it. Until or if that point comes, there’s nothing to think about really.”
  • The Tigers announced today that left-hander Daniel Norris has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a left groin strain. Fellow lefty Blaine Hardy is up from Triple-A Toledo to take his spot on the active roster. Norris started yesterday’s game for Detroit and wouldn’t have been called upon again in the first half, so his first half would’ve been done anyway. Viewed through that lens, the move could be a procedural tactic, though MLB.com’s Jason Beck tweets that Norris is undergoing an MRI this morning to determine the injury’s severity, so there’s perhaps more at play here than simply getting an extra reliever on the roster for a few days on either end of the break.
  • Though Twins players had a strong relationship with former GM Terry Ryan, Brian Dozier tells ESPN’s Scott Lauber that the club has quickly taken to chief baseball officer Derek Favley and GM Thad Levine. “They were always upfront with me, honest, and that’s one thing I respect more than anything,” said Dozier, one of this offseason’s most oft-discussed trade candidates. “…They’re always bouncing ideas off of us, from the biggest of things to the smallest of things, like not taking BP. They have a collaborative effort and find every possible solution to what’s going to make this thing work. That’s their best trait, I think.” Falvey spoke with Lauber about the team’s blend of scouting and a rapidly growing analytics practice. And, as Lauber writes, Falvey also isn’t taking the team’s status as contenders for granted. Echoing Levine’s recent comments about being open to adding long-term assets, Falvey told Lauber: “If we can find ways to add to that group that builds toward the future, that’s what we’ll look for.”
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Royals Select Contract Of Al Alburquerque, Place Matt Strahm On 60-Day DL

By Steve Adams | July 3, 2017 at 5:33pm CDT

The Royals announced today that they’ve selected the contract of right-handed reliever Al Alburquerque from Triple-A Omaha and transferred injured lefty Matt Strahm from the 10-day disabled list to the 60-day DL. Southpaw Eric Skoglund was optioned to Triple-A to clear a spot on the active roster for Alburquerque.

[Related: Updated Kansas City Royals depth chart]

As Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star wrote yesterday, Strahm was diagnosed with a torn patella tendon, sidelining him for the foreseeable future. Per Dodd, the team is currently seeking a second opinion to determine if Strahm requires surgery. Either way, he’ll be out until Aug. 30, at the earliest, as a result of today’s move.

In more optimistic injury news, however, Dodd tweets that the Royals have listed ace Danny Duffy as their starter for Tuesday’s game, meaning he’ll be activated after missing nearly eight weeks with an oblique injury. The return of Duffy will be a boon to a Royals team that has yet again surprised some by surging up the AL Central standings with a strong month of play.

With Strahm and Nate Karns on the shelf, Duffy will step back into the rotation alongside Ian Kennedy, Jason Vargas, Jason Hammel and Travis Wood. With the exception of Vargas, that group has struggled considerably in 2017, so the return of the team’s best pitcher should be a significant shot in the arm as the Royals aim for one last magical run with a core that is bound for free agency this winter.

As for Strahm, the 25-year-old burst onto the scene for Kansas City in 2016, firing 22 innings of relief with a 1.23 ERA, 12.3 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 46.7 percent ground-ball rate. Long a starter in the minors, he was a candidate to fill that role in 2017 but opened the year in the bullpen and never found his footing. Through 34 2/3 innings this year, including three starts, Strahm has a 5.45 ERA thanks to diminished strikeout numbers and increased struggles with his control. He’s obviously still a potential long-term piece for the K.C. staff, whether out of the ’pen or the rotation, but this latest injury certainly puts the remainder of his season in jeopardy.

Alburquerque, meanwhile, tossed four innings for the Royals earlier this year before being designated for assignment and accepting an outright assignment to Triple-A. Al Al was more or less a mainstay in the Tigers’ relief corps from 2011-15, but he’s totaled just six big league innings in the past two seasons. The 31-year-old owns a career 3.27 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 in 237 Major League innings, and he’d worked to a sensational 2.08 ERA with a 28-to-5 K/BB ratio through 26 innings in Triple-A.

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2017 Opt-Out Clause Update

By Steve Adams | July 3, 2017 at 2:04pm CDT

It’s been more than a month since we last looked in on the crop of eight players that can opt out of their current contracts and reenter the free-agent market following the 2017 campaign. With more than half the season in the books, a few cases look relatively certain, but there are plenty of questions surrounding several such players…

[Related: 2018 Vesting Options Update]

  • Greg Holland, RP, Rockies: Holland’s $10MM mutual option became a $15MM player option when he finished his 30th game of the season for the Rox a little more than a week ago. His recent brush with wildness is of mild concern, but Holland has a ridiculous 1.48 ERA with 11.9 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 39.7 percent ground-ball rate. In a year when homers are being hit more than ever and he’s tackling Coors Field for the first time, Holland has managed to limit opponents to just one big fly in 30 1/3 innings. So long as his arm holds up for the remainder of the season — no sure thing considering this is his first year back from 2015 Tommy John surgery — he’ll 100 percent turn down that player option in search of a huge multi-year deal. Agent Scott Boras will undoubtedly look to vault Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM pact and could seek a five-year deal.
  • Johnny Cueto, SP, Giants: Cueto is still a workhorse, by today’s standards, as he’s on pace to reach 200 innings for the fourth straight year if he can make 33 starts. He’s logged a 3.97 ERA in eight starts since we last looked at the opt-out crop, though he continues to be abnormally homer prone (though that’s a league-wide trend, as homers are up across the board). Cueto has a 4.26 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.7 40BB/9 and a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate. If he can rediscover his pinpoint control and/or his grounder rate from previous years (1.8 BB/9, 50.2 GB% in 2016), he could make this an easier decision come October. Cueto still ranks third on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman has reported that he’s still planning to opt out of the remaining four years and $84MM on his deal. I think there’s a decent chance he once again hits the open market in search of a five-year deal in the Jordan Zimmermann mold.
  • Welington Castillo, C, Orioles: Castillo’s bat has seen a precipitous decline in effectiveness since our mid-May check-in on opt-out clauses, as he’s batted .205/.250/.349 in 88 plate appearances since that time. He perhaps deserves somewhat of a pass, given the cringe-inducing groin injury he suffered on an ill-placed foul ball deflection that landed him on the DL for 10 days in late May/early June. His overall .272/.307/.439 slash is solid for a catcher, and he’s thrown out a ridiculous 48 percent of opposing stolen base attempts (12-for-25). Framing will probably never be his strong suit, but he’s made some incremental improvements in recent years (though he still grades out below average). With a fairly small one-year, $7MM player option on his deal, it’s certainly plausible that Castillo hits free agency this winter and scores a better payday than that option would afford.
  • Justin Upton, LF, Tigers: I understand the doubt around the possibility of Upton turning away an extra four years and $88.5MM to once again test free agency this winter; he’s 30 years old with questionable defensive value and a strikeout that has soared since his peak year in Arizona. Corner-limited sluggers also fared quite poorly on last year’s market, for the most part. Nonetheless, Upton is having his best offensive season since 2014 and is hitting .267/.351/.500 with 15 homers. Dating back to last year’s All-Star break, he’s slashing .264/.344/.537 with 37 bombs in 575 plate appearances. He’d need a big finish to be confident enough to top four years and $88MM, but that’s the same mark Hanley Ramirez signed for in Boston when he was a year older. If Upton’s camp feels that there’s a chance to approach the $110MM that Yoenis Cespedes received on a four-year pact last winter (again, when he was a year older than Upton), Upton’s reps could elect to search elsewhere. He can’t receive a qualifying offer this time around.
  • Matt Wieters, C, Nationals: Wieters is hitting .205/.224/.328 through 125 plate appearances since the last time we checked in on this group. Overall, he’s batting .244/.293/.384 with a substandard 22 percent caught-stealing rate and the worst framing marks of his career. It’s possible that the one year, $10.5MM player option on his contract is still beatable in a thin market for catching this coming winter, but opting into the deal and remaining with a competitive team is going to look pretty appealing if he can’t get his bat going once again.
  • Masahiro Tanaka, SP, Yankees: Tanaka has picked a poor time to have the worst season of his career, though he’s showing signs of life on the mound. He’s tossed 14 innings with a 14-to-4 K/BB ratio and a huge ground-ball rate in his past two starts and also gone without a home run allowed in that brief stretch. Tanaka is still sitting on a 5.56 ERA with an awful 2.1 HR/9 mark, but he’s averaging 8.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 with a 49.3 percent ground-ball rate. xFIP is much more favorable than his ERA at 3.87, and SIERA agrees with a 3.91 mark. Three of his past four starts have been brilliant, and if he can continue that momentum he could still do better than the three years and $67MM remaining on his contract and hit the open market in search of a larger deal. Age is on his side as well. He’ll turn just 29 this winter.
  • Ian Kennedy, SP, Royals: The 32-year-old Kennedy’s walk and strikeout rates have gone in the wrong direction by a substantial amount this season, and he’s more homer-prone than ever (1.9 HR/9). Starting pitching is almost always in heavy demand on the free-agent market (as Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM deal and opt-out clause illustrate), but he’s sporting a 4.72 ERA with FIP, xFIP and SIERA marks all well north of 5.00. Barring a miraculous turnaround, he’s not topping the remaining three years and $49MM on his deal as a free agent this winter, so expect him to stay in Kansas City.
  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP: Marlins: Chen hasn’t thrown a single pitch since we last checked in on May 22, as he continues to attempt to work his way back from a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. With three years and $52MM remaining on his contract, he’s a lock to forgo his opt-out provision.
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Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins New York Yankees San Francisco Giants Washington Nationals

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Cafardo’s Latest: Verlander, Royals, A’s, Mets, Nats

By Connor Byrne | July 1, 2017 at 8:04pm CDT

As the trade deadline approaches, the possibility of the Tigers dealing right-hander Justin Verlander seems more realistic than ever before, suggests Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Tigers, who own the American League’s third-worst record (36-43) and are trying to cut payroll, would be willing to eat some of the money remaining on Verlander’s contract, per Cafardo. In addition to what’s left of his $28MM salary this season, Verlander is due $28MM in each of the next two seasons. Additionally, Verlander has a $22MM vesting option for 2020, but that will only trigger if he finishes in the top five of the AL Cy Young voting in 2019. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the 34-year-old has full no-trade rights.

More of Cafardo’s weekly rumblings:

  • Having rallied from a dreadful start to climb over .500 (40-39) and into the playoff race, the Royals could look to acquire a front-line pitcher by the deadline, a team official told Cafardo. “We’re constantly evaluating where we are, but right now we feel we have a chance to take the division,” said the official. “Our core players are all playing well right now. If that changes, we have time to make that change, but we’re proceeding like we’re in this to win.” Kansas City is just two games back in the AL Central and a half-game out of the wild card, so the team certainly doesn’t look as if it has the makings of a seller. As such, agent Scott Boras doesn’t expect the Royals to move clients Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas, both of whom will be eligible for free agency after the season.
  • The Athletics are likely to trade relievers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle, according to Cafardo, who names the Nationals and Yankees as potential suitors. Madson, who’s on a $7.5MM salary both this year and next, has bounced back from a so-so 2016 to post a 2.53 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 1.69 BB/9 and a 53.6 percent ground-ball rate in 32 innings this season. The oft-injured Doolittle has only thrown 16 1/3 frames, but he has been highly effective (3.31 ERA, 12.67 K/9, 1.1 BB/9); what’s more, he’s controllable for reasonable prices through 2020.
  • Another reliever, the Mets’ Addison Reed, could also end up on the move. Odds are, though, that he won’t head to the Nationals, writes Cafardo. The Mets apparently aren’t open to helping the NL East rival Nats fix their bullpen issues.
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Athletics Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals New York Mets New York Yankees Washington Nationals Addison Reed Eric Hosmer Justin Verlander Mike Moustakas Ryan Madson Sean Doolittle

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