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Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

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The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each

Tarik Skubal Visiting Specialist With Elbow Issue; Expected To Miss Remainder Of Season

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4:32pm: Skubal is set to visit orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache next week, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). The 25-year-old is alarmingly dealing with some form of elbow injury, although Hinch declined to speculate as to whether surgery was a possibility until the results of next week’s testing became apparent. McCosky adds that Skubal will not return to the mound in 2022 in any event.

3:03pm: The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve transferred lefty Tarik Skubal from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. The move opens a spot on the roster for lefty Daniel Norris, whose contract has been formally selected from Triple-A Toledo (as previously reported). It also casts doubt on whether Skubal will return at all in the 2022 season. Since he was placed on the 15-day IL on Aug. 2, there’s still technically time for him to get back for the final week of games in early October — but today’s move makes that look fairly unlikely.

It’s a fairly surprising shift for Skubal, who was placed on the injured list due to general arm fatigue. Skubal was lifted from his final start of the season after five efficient innings and downplayed any severity, telling the Tigers beat that he anticipated making his next start. Instead, it’s now possible that he won’t pitch in a game until next season. The Tigers didn’t provide any further updates on Skubal’s health beyond the move to the 60-day IL, though manager AJ Hinch will presumably divulge some additional context prior to tonight’s game.

If Skubal’s season is indeed over, it was a strong breakout year for the former top prospect. The 25-year-old will fall shy of last year’s 149 2/3 innings, but in the 117 2/3 frames he managed during the 2022 campaign, Skubal worked to a 3.52 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a solid 45.7% grounder rate. Most importantly, he maintained the generally sharp strikeout and walk rates he’d displayed in 2021 while dramatically scaling back his home-run rate (2.11 HR/9 in 2021; 0.69 HR/9 in 2022). If Skubal can continue to miss bats, limit walks, keep the ball on the ground and limit home runs in this capacity, there’s room for even greater improvement (as evidenced by his hearty 2.97 FIP).

Whether there’s another gear for Skubal or this is roughly his peak output, he’s solidified himself as at least a quality mid-rotation option for Hinch in the coming years. Though there was talk of the Tigers being willing to at least listen to offers on the lefty before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, the Tigers would’ve required an exorbitant haul to part with him given that he’s still under team control for another four seasons beyond the current campaign. Given the current uncertainty regarding his arm, it’s difficult to imagine those talks being revisited this winter, as the Tigers — who’ll be operating under a new general manager after firing Al Avila yesterday — would be selling low on the heels of a lengthy IL stay.

As for what the Tigers’ rotation will look like moving forward, it’s practically anyone’s guess. Skubal joins Casey Mize and Spencer Turnbull (Tommy John surgery in both cases) as key rotation pieces on the 60-day injured list. The Tigers are currently also without Michael Pineda, Beau Brieske and Rony Garcia (injured list) and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (rehabbing following a lengthy stay on the restricted list while dealing with a reported marital issue). That’s left the Tigers with Norris, Matt Manning, Tyler Alexander, journeyman Drew Hutchison and rookie Garrett Hill as options for the time being. With little certainty among that quintet, there figures to be additional rotation tumult in the final weeks of the year.

Tigers To Select Daniel Norris

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Left-hander Daniel Norris is returning for a second big league stint with the Tigers, the team announced to reporters Thursday. Norris, who signed a minor league deal after being cut loose by the Cubs, will start tomorrow’s game for the Tigers. He’ll make at least two starts, tweets Evan Woodbery of MLive.com. The Tigers will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move before tomorrow’s game.

Further opportunities beyond these two scheduled outings for Norris will be dependent on the lefty’s performance and the health of the other options on the roster. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets that veteran Michael Pineda is headed out on a rehab assignment and could only need two starts himself, for instance, so there’s likely some correlation there.

Norris, 29, was one of three lefties the Tigers acquired in the 2015 trade that sent David Price to the Blue Jays. (Matthew Boyd and Jairo Labourt also went to Detroit in that swap.) He spent the 2015-21 seasons with the Tigers organization, working as both a starter and reliever while batting a lengthy run of health issues — most notably a frightening bout with thyroid cancer which he thankfully overcame.

The Tigers flipped a then-struggling Norris to the Brewers for minor league righty Reese Olson last summer on July 30, and his results didn’t improve following the swap. He became a free agent after the season and inked a one-year, $1.75MM deal with the Cubs that didn’t pan out as hoped; in 30 innings with Chicago, Norris logged an unsightly 6.90 ERA with a career-best 32.1% strikeout rate but also career-worst marks in walk rate (15.7%) and home run rate (2.10 HR/9).

Since returning to the Tigers organization, Norris has made three starts in Triple-A and allowed a total of two runs on five hits and two walks with five strikeouts. He spent the season in the Cubs’ bullpen and thus wasn’t stretched out much at the time he re-upped with the Tigers, but he did toss four shutout innings with one hit, no walks and three strikeouts in his most recent outing (against the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate, coincidentally enough).

This could prove to be a short stint on the roster for Norris. However, with each of Pineda, Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Beau Brieske, Rony Garcia and Spencer Turnbull all on the injured list — plus Eduardo Rodriguez still working his way back from the restricted list — there’s enough uncertainty on the staff that Norris could earn himself a longer leash if he shows well in his first couple outings.

Tigers Sign Daniel Norris, Jacob Barnes To Minor League Deals

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The Tigers announced agreement with relievers Daniel Norris and Jacob Barnes on minor league contracts. Detroit also confirmed the signing of righty Chi Chi González to a non-roster deal, which was first reported over the weekend. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported (Twitter links) both of today’s signings before the club announcement.

Norris and Barnes have each previously been members of the organization. The former spent six seasons in Detroit. Acquired from the Blue Jays as the centerpiece of the David Price deadline deal in 2015, Norris spent his first few years in the rotation. His tenure was up-and-down, and the Tigers kicked him to the bullpen starting with the shortened 2020 campaign. The left-hander posted a 3.25 ERA through 27 2/3 frames as a multi-inning type that year. Norris struggled to keep runs off the board in the first half of the following season, but he had impressive enough strikeout and ground-ball numbers the Brewers acquired him for pitching prospect Reese Olson last summer.

That deal didn’t pan out for Milwaukee, as Norris’ ERA never bounced back. He qualified for free agency and signed a $1.75MM guarantee with the Cubs this spring. The 29-year-old tossed 30 innings for the North Siders but allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine. He struck out an excellent 32.1% of opponents, but a lofty 15.7% walk percentage and marked home run issues led Chicago to release him last week. The Tigers would only owe Norris the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum salary if he makes it back to the majors.

Barnes was a Tiger as recently as last month. The right-hander broke camp with Detroit and made 22 appearances, managing only a 6.10 ERA across 20 2/3 frames. Typically a high-strikeout arm, Barnes generated swinging strikes on a meager 7.7% of his offerings this season. The Tigers cut him loose last month. The 32-year-old signed a minor league deal with the Mariners, briefly reached the majors but didn’t make an appearance, and was then outrighted off Seattle’s roster. He elected free agency and now returns to his first organization of the season in hopes of getting back to the big leagues.

González has already suited up for two MLB teams this year. He began the season on a non-roster pact with the division-rival Twins, making a pair of starts. The Brewers claimed him off waivers and deployed him four times before outrighting him off the roster. The 30-year-old has a 6.87 ERA in 18 1/3 big league innings this season, although he posted a much more palatable 3.44 mark in Triple-A. Unlike Morris and Barnes, González can serve as rotation depth.

The additions to the pitching depth come at a time when the Tigers are widely expected to move multiple hurlers off the big league staff. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, veteran relievers Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer and Joe Jiménez are among the league’s more obvious candidates to change teams before next Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Cubs Designate Daniel Norris, Select Erich Uelmen

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July 23: Daniel Norris has been granted his unconditional release, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). The veteran southpaw is now free to sign with any team.

July 17: The Cubs announced to reporters, including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, that they have selected the contract of right-hander Erich Uelmen. Lefty Daniel Norris has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Norris, 29, was considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball during his time with the Blue Jays. Baseball America ranked him one of the top 100 prospects in the sport in 2012 and again in 2015. He moved to Detroit as part of the package that resulted in David Price going to Toronto, with the Tigers surely hoping that Norris could be a building block in their rotation for years to come.

Unfortunately, Norris couldn’t make the best of the opportunity, registering an ERA north of 5.00 in both 2017 and 2018, followed by a 4.49 in 2019. A move to the bullpen in 2020 seemed to unlock a new gear for him, however, as he put up a 3.25 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 55.7% ground ball rate. The next year, his ERA shot up to 5.89 as a Tiger, though his peripherals were still encouraging enough for the Brewers to take a shot on him, acquiring him in a deadline deal. Things went in the wrong direction, though, as his ERA as a Brewer was 6.64, eventually getting left of the club’s postseason roster.

The rebuilding Cubs took a flier on him for this year, surely hoping that he could right the ship enough to turn himself into a trade candidate. But 2022 has been yet another setback for the southpaw, as he has a 6.90 ERA as a Cub. His 32.1% strikeout rate on the season is very encouraging, but it’s come with a 15.7% walk rate, almost double the 8.3% league average. The Cubs will now have one week to trade him, pass him through waivers or release him. As a veteran with more than five years of MLB service time, Norris can reject an outright assignment without forfeiting any salary.

Uelmen, 26, was a fourth round pick of the Cubs in 2017. He was primarily a starter on his way up but switched to a full-time bullpen role upon reaching Triple-A. His first taste of action with the Iowa Cubs didn’t go so well last year, but he’s having an excellent showing here in 2022, working in a multi-inning role. Through 42 frames in 28 games, he has a 2.79 ERA, 55.3% ground ball rate and 29.1% strikeout rate, though the walk rate is high at 12.8%. He’ll now get a shot to see if he can translate any of that into the big leagues, making his MLB debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Bullpen Moves: Marlins, Cubs, Guardians

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Given the way the game is played these days, bullpens are dynamic entities constantly changing shape. Though longer injured list stints and option limits were intended to somewhat slow this ebb-and-flow of arms moving in and out, the game of musical chairs continues. Let’s check in on some of the changes being made in bullpens around the game today…

  • The Marlins have placed Louis Head on the 15-day injured list with a left shoulder impingement, recalling Zach Pop from Triple-A, per Christina De Nicola of MLB.com (via Twitter). Head’s contributions on the year haven’t necessarily been additive, as the 32-year-old reliever owns a 7.23 ERA/5.29 FIP across 23 appearances totaling 23 2/3 innings. The injury is a bit peculiar as well since it’s not his throwing arm. Pop was a Rule 5 pick from the Orioles by the Diamondbacks, whom the Marlins then acquired via trade. He appeared in 50 games for the Fish last season, pitching to a 4.12 ERA/3.77 FIP across 54 2/3 innings.
  • The Cubs have placed veteran southpaw Daniel Norris on the 15-day injured because of a finger strain. To take his roster spot, they have recalled Adrian Sampson from Triple-A, per Meghan Montemurro of The Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). Norris hasn’t had a great season, but if he’s healthy, he made draw some trade interest simply as a veteran southpaw. Currently, however, he owns a 7.24 ERA/5.73 FIP in 24 appearances covering 27 1/3 innings. Sampson has been up and down, designated for assignment, and brought back. Despite his frequent travels, he has tossed just 5 2/3 innings with the Cubs this season without giving up an earned run.
  • The Guardians have optioned Anthony Castro to Triple-A and recalled right-hander Yohan Ramirez, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (via Twitter). Castro, 27, with his third team in three years, has slogged through eight appearances, surrendering eight earned runs in eight innings on 11 hits and seven walks to 10 strikeouts. The Guardians acquired Ramirez from the Mariners via trade for cash and a player to be named later. He made seven appearances with the Mariners, posting a 7.56 ERA across 8 1/3 innings of work.

Roster Notes: Rangers, Cubs, Pirates

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The Rangers announced a pair of interlocking roster moves today, optioning Spencer Howard to Triple-A and recalling outfielder Zach Reks. Howard has been shelled in 6 2/3 innings of work this season, working to a 12.15 ERA, but the demotion is reportedly more about building him up as a “full-fledged” starter, per Jeff Wilson of Rangerstoday.com (via Twitter). Whatever the reason for the move, the Rangers will surely want to see a more productive couple of appearances in Triple-A out of Howard.

Reks, meanwhile, steps right into the starting lineup, starting today’s ballgame in left field. It will be Reks first appearance with the Rangers after being acquired from the Dodgers this past November. In other roster moves…

  • The Cubs have optioned Mark Leiter Jr. to Triple-A, activating Locke St. John in his place, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). Leiter Jr. appeared in four games for the Cubs, starting three, but yielding nine earned runs over 10 1/3 innings. St. John, meanwhile, was recently added to the 40-man roster to satisfy a condition of the minor league contract he signed over the winter. For now, he’ll join Daniel Norris and Sean Newcomb in a full Chicago bullpen.
  • The Pirates have reinstated Cole Tucker from the COVID Injured List and optioned Tucupita Marcano to Double-A in order to give the infielder regular playing time, per Kevin Gorman of Tribune-Review Sports (via Twitter). Marcano, still just 22, was promoted to fill the void in the short-term. He was the key piece in last season’s trade that sent Adam Frazier to the Padres.

Cubs To Sign Daniel Norris

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The Cubs are set to sign left-handed pitcher Daniel Norris to a Major League contract reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN.

The 28-year-old is fresh off a season divided between the Detroit and Milwaukee organizations. His work out of the Tigers’ bullpen didn’t match the success he found there in 2020, but a fluky .354 batting average on balls in play and other ERA estimators figured his 5.89 ERA with Detroit last season was more bloated than it should have been. The Brewers figured as much as well, and acquired the left-hander in a deadline deal last July.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, Norris’s run prevention skills only worsened. In 20 plus innings Norris gave up 15 runs and walks apiece, along with five home runs, all of which contributed to a 6.64 ERA with his new team. Despite a .231 batting average on balls in play after the trade, his reduced groundball, strikeout, and home run suppression abilities all resulted in a cumulative 6.16 ERA on the year that easily stands as his worst.

Even though things seldom clicked all at once for Norris in his platform year, there are still green flags in his profile. Chief among those flags are Norris’s ability to stymie left-handed batters. In 2021 opposing lefties struck out at an unappealing 29.5% rate and posted a weak .635 OPS when facing the pitcher. Furthermore, a 4.32 SIERA and other ERA estimators largely paint Norris’s end-of-season numbers as unlucky, and point to improvement should he keep his same skillset intact next season.

While no longer the high-end starter prospect who headlined the trade that sent David Price to Toronto back in 2015, the Cubs figure to have plenty of use for the modern day reliever version of Norris. Currently the only left-handed relievers projected by Jason Martinez of RosterResource to be in Chicago’s bullpen are Brad Wieck and Justin Steele. While Wieck had a 0.00 ERA through 17 innings on the year, and Steele debuted to a respectable 4.26 ERA in 57 innings (2.03 ERA in 13+ innings as a reliever), neither has a long enough track record to bank on repeated bullpen dominance.

With yet another Major League addition today it’s become increasingly clear that the Cubs are eyeing a spot in the recently expanded postseason field.

Brewers Announce NLDS Roster; Brent Suter Out With Oblique Injury

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The Brewers announced the 26-man roster they’ll carry for an NLDS showdown against the Braves this morning. Left-hander Brent Suter at first appeared to be a surprising omission, but the Brewers announced that Suter is out for at least this series due to a “minor” right oblique strain. Rather than swap Suter out for another lefty, such as Hoby Milner or deadline acquisition Daniel Norris, they’ll instead go with three catchers. Here’s how the roster breaks down…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The loss of Suter is a notable one. While he’s far from the household name that teammate Josh Hader is, Suter has quietly been brilliant for the Brewers since his 2019 return from Tommy John surgery. In 123 1/3 innings since being reinstated from the injured list that season, Suter carries a 2.70 ERA with a 24.1 percent strikeout rate, an outstanding 5.9 percent walk rate and a similarly strong 52.2 percent grounder rate. He’s no stranger to working multiple innings, and he has no discernible platoon splits of which to speak. Since 2019, lefties have batted .227/.280/.393 against Suter, while righties have slashed .241/.288/.365. That the team specified the injury as “minor” in nature gives some hope that he could return for a potential NLCS or World Series run, but no timetable for his recovery has been formally announced.

Milwaukee surely had higher hopes for Norris when acquiring him from the Tigers just prior to the trade deadline. Looking past the 5.54 ERA he posted in Detroit this season, Norris had posted strong strikeout, ground-ball, home-run and swinging-strike rates prior to the swap. Every one of those rates trended in the wrong direction following his acquisition, however, and his walk rate jumped by nearly seven percent: from 9.6 to 16.5.

Jackie Bradley Jr.’s inclusion on the roster serves as a testament to his brilliant glovework, which could factor late into any close games for the Brew Crew. After hitting just .163/.236/.261 in his first season with Milwaukee, there was certainly a case to make different use of that roster spot, but Bradley still posted nine Defensive Runs Saved, six Outs Above Average and a 7.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in 722 innings in center field.

Brewers Acquire Daniel Norris From Tigers

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The Brewers are finalizing a deal to acquire lefty reliever Daniel Norris from the Tigers, tweet Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.  MLB.com’s Jason Beck first broke news of the trade discussions, and he hears that minor league starter Reese Olson is heading back to the Tigers.  The deal is done, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.

Norris, 28, has struggled to the tune of a 5.89 ERA, 25.5 K%, and 9.6 BB% in 36 2/3 innings this year for Detroit.  The southpaw has been done in by a .354 batting average on balls in play, so better things may be on the horizon.  Plus, Norris has stifled lefties, whiffing more than 30% of them against a 7% walk rate.  He’s due for free agency after the season, so he’s a clear trade candidate for the Tigers.  Norris is earning $3.475MM on the season.

Norris was drafted in the second round by the Blue Jays back in 2011.  He was the key piece in the Jays’ acquisition of David Price in a deadline deal of six years ago, along with Matthew Boyd.  Back then, Norris was a 60-grade prospect with the potential of a frontline starter.  However, Norris battled numerous injuries in his Tigers career.  He made a career-high 29 starts in 2019, but switched to the bullpen permanently last August when Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize hit the scene.  Though Norris has mostly pitched in low-leverage situations for the Tigers this year, he did work his way up in the bullpen pecking order in July.

This month the Brewers have been relying on Josh Hader and Devin Williams in high leverage situations, with Williams activated from the IL for elbow discomfort on Tuesday.  In addition to Hader, the Brewers’ pen includes lefty Brent Suter.

Olson, 21, was a 13th round pick out of high school by the Brewers back in 2018.  He’s got a 4.30 ERA, 26.9 K%, and 11.9 BB% in 14 High-A starts this year.

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