Pitchers on the move
Jason Schmidt has been offered $45 million over three years to join the Cubs. If that offer has been leaked already, $60M/4 seems within the realm of possibility. Strangely, Schmidt has already said he’s not interested in the East Coast–you’d think he’d wait until Cashman made an offer and drove up his price before saying no. Once Schmidt signs, it’ll be fun to watch Scott Boras conduct the sure-to-be-insane bidding for Barry Zito.
Some team (to be announced tonight) won the bidding for Kei Igawa for $25 million. Hanshin has accepted. That’s the second largest posting fee ever–somebody must think Igawa is pretty good, definitely on the high side of the typical #3/#4 projection he’s gotten. I’m guessing it’s not the Cubs, or we wouldn’t be hearing so much about the other pitchers they’re after. That leaves plenty of other possibilities, though.
The Baltimore Orioles are continuing their quest to build the most expensive bullpen of all time: Chad Bradford is close to a three-year deal with them. Anybody think it’s a little odd that the O’s traded Chris Britton for a reclamation project and are now probably spending about $8M a year for Bradford and Danys Baez? (Odd? Yes. In character? Absolutely.)
And, this just in: the O’s are also adding Scott Williamson. He’s cheap–only $900K for the year. Oddly enough, he could be the best of their new additions. I’m a little surprised nobody else was willing to go higher for him on a one-year deal.
Many of you have emailed me about a possible Angels-White Sox trade involving Ervin Santana and Chone Figgins for Freddy Garcia and Joe Crede. As Rotoworld points out, this could be a recycled rumor; regardless, Kenny Williams says no. And there’s no way Bill Stoneman deals Santana for Garcia without getting a lot more in return. Five years of a good pitcher under the team’s control for one year of Garcia? Right.
By Jeff Sackmann
Sarge to the Angels
The Angels appear to have signed Gary Matthews Jr. to a 5 year, $50 million deal. I recognize that this is a new market, that the teams have tons of money, that free agents are getting paid more than they would’ve been last year. But I’m sorry, this is completely ridiculous.
Matthews has had one good season in his career. Of course, that was last year, and it was great, so he positioned himself well for the market. But the dude’s 32, he’d never been much above average before, he put up his good offensive numbers in a major hitter’s park, and he may not be that great of a center fielder. Having GMJ under contract for the next five years ensures that the Angels will have an overpaid corner outfielder even after Garret Anderson‘s contract runs out.
Sarge’s career line is .263/.336/.419. According to ZiPS, Maicer Izturis is going to have a better season than that. (I know Izturis doesn’t play center, just…eight figures for utility infielder offense?)
Now for the implications: this would seem to suggest that the Angels won’t be going after Andruw Jones or Manny Ramirez, though trading prospects for Manny would’ve been smarter than doing this. It also might mean that Chone Figgins is expendable, though he’s coming off the worst offensive season of his career, so his trade value might not be much.
Also, we can expect the Dave Roberts sweepstakes to heat up, and perhaps see another team or two get involved with Julio Lugo, who is willing to play center field. Just like the Juan Pierre deal, this would indicate that Roberts will have no trouble getting the $15M/3y he’s after. Lugo ought to have teams giving him the $32M/4y he wants, too. Depending on how he adapts to center, Lugo could be a better player than either Pierre or Sarge, if not in 2007, for the life of their contracts.
One more thing: speaking of center fielders, you may be interested in my Hardball Times column today, which analyzes the difference in defensive skill between CFs and corner guys. I also take a look at how Alfonso Soriano might do in center based on his 2006 performance in left.
By Jeff Sackmann
Juan Pierre: $45M/5
Insanity. $9M for Pierre is a stretch: he’s not a great defender, he hasn’t posted an OBP above .330 in two years, and he isn’t even a particularly high-percentage basestealer. As I mentioned earlier, Kenny Lofton had a better 2006. But, in this market, $9M a year for a leadoff hitter isn’t too crazy–Pierre might well be better than, say, Gary Matthews Jr.
But…five years? It would certainly appear that Matthews is going to get the money he’s after. Dave Roberts‘s agent probably just upped his demands, too. Even Lofton ought to get either a two-year deal or a rich one-year contract.
In other news this evening:
The Marlins swapped Chris Resop to the Angels for Kevin Gregg.
The Mets officially declined Tom Glavine‘s option.
Speier and Stanton close to finding new homes
The big news this morning is that the Angels are close to a four-year deal with Justin Speier, who is very possibly the best reliever on the market this year. Tim predicted that Speier would get a three-year deal worth $17M–my guess is that the money per year is right, just with that extra year, for a total of $21-$22M or so.
Speier was a possible closer for many teams, so it’s something of a surprise that the team that ponied up for him already has a great closer and a solid setup man in Frankie Rodriguez and Scot Shields. It’s not cheap, and it’ll certainly be more expensive once Frankie gets deep into his arbitration years, but LA could have the best 1-2-3 bullpen punch in baseball for a couple of years.
The market for relievers wasn’t pretty in the first place; now the best guys out there are, uh, Danys Baez and David Weathers? The price was already high for Scott Linebrink; it just went up again.
One of the possibilities for Boston (who was presumed to be a suitor for Speier) is Joe Borowski, who sounds more than generically interested in the Red Sox. And who wouldn’t be? Short of every fanboy’s dream of Roger Clemens pitching the ninth inning, Borowski could end up closing games in Boston.
Yesterday I said nice things about the Reds signing of Alex Gonzalez. Today I can’t be so kind to Wayne Krivsky. Apparently he’s about to sign Mike Stanton to a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third. Stanton turns 40 in June. He had a nice run in San Francisco last year, but let’s face it: the guy hasn’t put up a good full season for two years. Sure, he might be worth more than the $1M he got for last year, but a vesting option for 2009? I guess that if you’re worried David Weathers won’t come back, there’s only one choice: get older.
By Jeff Sackmann
Angels Pursuing Andruw Jones Trade?
According to Halos Heaven, the Braves hope to send Andruw Jones to the Angels for Ervin Santana and Nick Adenhart. Of course, Andruw would have to be amenable to this deal to make it work.
Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein wrote, "Adenhart has come all the way back from Tommy John surgery to establish himself as one of the top righthanders in the minors." Among right-handed starters, Goldstein ranked Adenhart behind only Homer Bailey and Philip Hughes.
Meanwhile, the L.A. Times (subscription required) says the Angels have made an offer to Alfonso Soriano and have interest in J.D. Drew. Mike DiGiovanna speculates that Drew could command a four-year, $56MMish deal.
Kenny Williams, Dealmaker
Either Ken Williams is keeping busy at the GM meetings, or the reporters covering the Sox have very fertile imaginations. I’m sure the truth is somewhere in between. In addition to the Andruw Jones deal I mentioned in the previous post, here’s a roundup of possible White Sox moves:
Chris De Luca reports on a possible Freddy Garcia / Ervin Santana swap. Oddly enough, his sources say that the "package" would be built around Santana. Garcia might be a better pitcher right now, but just barely: last year, Garcia was worth 15 win shares, while Santana was worth 13. Santana’s younger, and is under the Angels control for four more years. Bill Stoneman couldn’t covet Garcia that much, could he? South Side Sox chimes in on the improbability of that deal.
De Luca also repeats the thinking that Williams could bring Aaron Rowand back, especially if the Phillies land Alfonso Soriano.
Phil Rogers has a flurry of rumors, some of the recycled variety. He keeps stoking the flames of Javier Vazquez-to-the-Mets, and suggests there’s the makings of a "monster deal" between the Sox and Rangers with Vazquez or Mark Buerhle headed to Texas. Rogers is clearly speculating, but if his source is correct that John Danks is in play, there’s certainly the possibility of something getting done.
By Jeff Sackmann
Rangers Bid $30MM For Matsuzaka?
Here we finally have a decent source giving us some Daisuke Matsuzaka info. Jan Hubbard of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram has a baseball official indicating something close to a $30MM bid. Of the course, the language in the article uses plenty of qualifiers like "may" and "have a chance." Can’t blame ’em for hedging their bets a little.
We’ve also got a video in which Boston Globe sportswriter Jackie MacMullan says that Matsuzaka is "going to go out west to the Angels by all accounts." Not to question her info, but in watching the video is appeared that she did not know Matsuzaka’s name. I ran this one by my Angels source and even he could not confirm whether the Halos made a bid. It was a stealth process.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a source putting two different teams over a $20MM bid.
Mike Plugh is all over the developing story at the Matsuzaka Watch.
Daisuke Matsuzaka To Be Posted By Seibu
It’s official: the Seibu Lions will post ace starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. That means a Major League team will bid on the exclusive rights to negotiate a contract with him.
Matsuzaka figures to beat out even Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt as the best free agent pitcher available. At least eight teams have already scouted him Matsuzaka.
Based on this report (scroll down), the Angels will also be players for Matsuzaka.
2007 Los Angeles Angels
So Arte Moreno has guaranteed big changes in Los Angeles this winter. Let’s explore his current obligations and needs.
C – Mike Napoli – $0.35MM
C – Jose Molina – $1.25MM
1B –
2B – Howie Kendrick – $0.35MM
SS – Orlando Cabrera – $7.5MM
3B –
IF – Robb Quinlan – $0.365MM
IF – Maicer Izturis – $0.35MM
LF – Juan Rivera – $2.025MM
CF – Chone Figgins – $3.5MM
RF – Vladimir Guerrero – $13.5MM
DH – Garret Anderson – $11MM
SP – Bartolo Colon – $14MM
SP – Kelvim Escobar – $8.5MM
SP – John Lackey – $5.5MM
SP – Ervin Santana – $0.35MM
SP – Joe Saunders – $0.35MM
SP – Jered Weaver – $0.35MM
RP – Francisco Rodriguez – $3.775MM
RP – Hector Carrasco – $2.75MM
RP – Scot Shields – $2.1MM
RP – Brendan Donnelly – $0.95MM
RP – Kevin Gregg – $0.36MM
RP –
RP –
This club has about $80MM committed for ’07, and we can tack on another $5MM or so for raises. But I haven’t seen any particular payroll limit mentioned, so they may be willing to take on another $40MM for next year.
The needs are fairly obvious: big bats at the corners. I’m sure they’re praying Aramis Ramirez opts out of his contract, because then there’d be a bona fide slugger available for third base. Assuming he doesn’t, there’s always the Miguel Tejada option. The Angels are stacked with enough starting pitching and position prospect depth to get a deal done. Even if the Orioles are difficult.
Another good option at third would be Joe Crede, should the White Sox make him available. Guys like Hank Blalock and Adrian Beltre could be had, but no one knows if they’ll bounce back. Morgan Ensberg is a name you don’t hear a lot in connection with the Angels, but he’d be a decent fit.
First base doesn’t offer many top tier choices, though Gary Sheffield would be interesting. And really, who can’t play first base? The Angels could make room for Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Moises Alou, Barry Bonds, or even Jim Edmonds if they had to. Also, given the fragility of Garret Anderson and Mike Napoli‘s abysmal second half performance, signing Mike Piazza would be a smart move.
While most free agent signings mean overpaying, it may be a better option for L.A. than trading top-tier prospects like Nick Adenhart, Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar, or Hank Conger. The team is also stocked with lesser but still interesting talent like Kendry Morales, Reggie Willits, Jeff Mathis, Casey Kotchman, Dallas McPherson, Terry Evans, and Sean Rodriguez.
One could practically assemble a team of "failed" Angels prospects. I’m sure the club expected the corners to be a strength when McPherson and Kotchman were on the rise. McPherson will be 27 next year and took a step backward at Triple A, so his star is dimming quickly. Though Kotchman lost this season to mono, he’ll only be 24 next year and has quite a bit of promise. And Mathis? He had a 12 game trial before his demotion. He’s only 23, and he posted a decent .763 OPS in Triple A this year. Morales got less than 200 ABs to establish himself at age 23.
Moreno has pledged to shake things up, so we are going to see trades, signings, and veteran acquisitions. Personally, I’d rather see the team try Wood at third, Kotchman/Morales at first, and Mathis behind the plate. I’d sign Piazza in case Kotchman/Morales/Mathis doesn’t work out, and acquire a third baseman midseason if Wood proves he’s not ready. Given the rotation depth and young talent, I don’t see the need for a huge expenditure.
If I had to spend money, I’d give Sheffield a two-year deal to play first and let Kotchman re-establish himself in Triple A. Then I’d use him as primary trade bait to fill any midseason needs. Trading a starter like Saunders or Santana could prove shortsighted, as Colon and Escobar are not entirely reliable. Colon, for one, is recovering from a torn rotator cuff. Ask Mark Prior how that worked out. Flashback to February: "My shoulder is perfectly healthy."
Angels Look To Lock Up K-Rod
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, one of the biggest priorities for the Angels this offseason will be locking up closer Francisco Rodriguez to a long-term deal. K-Rod is due for free agency after the ’08 season, and the Yankees are already said to be eyeing him up as the heir to Mariano Rivera.
This year is Rodriguez’s age 24 season, and he’s already accumulated 100 saves. He’s showing the best command of his career, though the side effect is that he’s got the worst hit rate of his career. Still, 6.5 hits per nine is pretty damn good. It’s also apparent that Rodriguez is allowing more flyballs than ever. Probably not a big deal, as his home run rate remains solid.
The elephant in the room, at least in my mind, is Rodriguez’s delivery. Said Will Carroll in February:
"It’s incredibly hard to predict player injuries, though if you were going to put money on anyone’s elbow blowing up, the safe bet would be on K-Rod. There’s almost nothing mechanically right with his delivery and he showed all sorts of indicators last year with a tender elbow, a forearm strain, and an obvious difficulty throwing his fastball."
This season, Rodriguez has experienced nothing worse than a hamstring cramp. I asked Will today: will K-Rod’s contract extension bomb? Do the red flags he mentioned in the preseason still portend elbow surgery? Will likened Rodriguez to a lit firecracker that doesn’t go off: "You’d sit and wait, wondering if it was a dud or a long fuse. You’d go up to it slowly, ready to dive away if it went off."
Will did point out that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system likes him – it suggests K-Rod will be worth anywhere from $10-15MM annually through 2010. Obviously, only time will tell.