WEEI’s Tejada Rumor Making Rounds
The Dennis and Callahan Show on WEEI 850 in Boston broke out an improbable-sounding trade rumor this morning. Here’s the idea:
Dodgers send: Derek Lowe, Hee Seop Choi
Red Sox send: David Wells, Alex Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Tony Graffanino
Orioles send: Miguel Tejada, Luis Matos
Dodgers receive: Wells, Graffanino, Matos
Red Sox receive: Tejada, Choi
Orioles receive: Lowe, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Lester
In my humble opinion, there’s about zero chance of a deal like this going down. Then why am I posting about it? For one thing, I’ve received a host of emails about the possibility. So it seems that the people want to discuss it. Secondly, plenty of these players are likely to be dealt, just not in this combination.
Is Derek Lowe on the block? Certainly. I know for a fact that the Cubs and Phillies have expressed interest in him. I’m fairly certain he wouldn’t represent a big gain for the Orioles, however. The Phils could still try to hammer something out to obtain Lowe.
Hee Seop Choi has nowhere to play on the Dodgers, and I mentioned before that I think the Devil Rays should make a play for him. However, they’ve added Russell Branyan as a corner guy so it seems less likely at this point. There isn’t much of a market for a first baseman, but Choi still deserves a chance.
Wells is certainly likely to be dealt, and the Dodgers are a viable candidate. I mentioned yesterday that the Mets could consider Boomer as well.
Without doing any research, I have a feeling that a team can’t sign a free agent and trade him immediately. That’s why the Alex Gonzalez thing seems way off to me. Plus, Boston seemed to be trying to strengthen their defense. That is supposedly where Gonzalez’s value lies.
The Red Sox won’t be trading Youkilis and Lester. They’re far too valuable as building blocks. Graffanino should be on the move, but that’s a minor deal.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tejada dealt before the deadline, and a guy like Lester would have to be involved. There’s a fair chance Ronny Cedeno bombs and the Cubs try to re-engage the Orioles this summer. They’d be relying on the further development of minor leaguers to form an attractive package.
Matos, sure, he’ll end up somewhere. But the Dodgers don’t need him.
The Bengie Molina Sweepstakes
Bengie Molina has strangely emerged as neglected free agent, facing very little interest from teams and a possible one year deal. Coming off a career best .295/.336/.446 line, this is a curious situation.
Molina will be entering his age 32 season in 2006, and I’ve projected him at .289 with 17 HR next season. While his defense is no great shakes, one would think a few clubs would come out ahead in offering him a reasonable two-year pact. However, once you factor in defense, Molina ranked 15th among catchers in 2005 despite his solid showing at the plate. He presents very little improvement for most ballclubs, and that seems to explain the lack of interest.
Should the Blue Jays pursue Molina? Probably not. He was only marginally better than Gregg Zaun in 2005, and he’ll definitely cost more. I understand the idea is to platoon the players and have a sweet tandem like the Reds, but is Molina really going to want to do that?
Honestly, these are the teams that I think stand to gain at least one win by adding Molina:
Royals
Angels
Rockies
Padres
The Royals already tossed their free cash at other marginal free agents, although Molina would’ve made some sense if the club is ready to give up on John Buck. Most likely, they’ll keep Buck around longer than they should in order to pretend they didn’t get hosed in the Beltran trade.
The Angels really should’ve tried harder to bring Molina back. Jeff Mathis is a huge question mark on a team for which a win or two could determine whether they make the playoffs.
The Rockies don’t really have a good reason to go out and sign a free agent. But if I were Molina’s agent, I’d campaign hard to get him to Coors for a season. He could play there for $4MM, hit 20 HR, and get that big deal he was looking for. It’s been done before.
The Padres seem content with Doug Mirabelli and Dave Ross, who are both backups. Given their lousy division and legitimate shot at the playoffs, I’m surprised they haven’t chased Molina a bit more.
The Dodgers would probably be the best fit, and they have inquired about Molina. It would be a logical solution to bring Molina in for a year before the team evaluates the readiness of Dioner Navarro and Russell Martin.
Breaking News: Baez To Dodgers
This just in: the Devil Rays have traded righthanded relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter plus a player to be named later to the Dodgers for starting pitching prospects Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany.
Ken Rosenthal had a whiff of the deal earlier this afternoon, and it’s a variation on the trade rumor we reported back on Tuesday. Jackson and Tiffany had fallen out of the Dodgers’ top ten prospect list. Before the 2005 season, Jackson ranked 3rd and southpaw Tiffany 10th.
Edwin Jackson brings a mid 90s heater and dangerous slider to the table. Despite throwing 55 innings of 8.62 ball in Triple A in 2005, Jackson is likely to see some starts for the Devil Rays at the Major League level in 2006. Baseball America ranked him the Dodgers’ #1 prospect in 2004 after a sparkling Double A season at the tender age of 19. Jackson has been inconsistent since then and has yet to succeed above Double A.
Chuck Tiffany throws a high 80s fastball, big curve ball, and circle changeup. He pitched 110 innings of 3.93 ball in high A ball in ’05, striking out almost 11 hitters per nine innings.
You can view my breakdown of Danys Baez here. He’s a solid insurance policy for Eric Gagne, although both pitchers hit free agency after 2006. Lance Carter’s claim to fame is making an All-Star team by default in 2003 after saving 15 games with a 4.05 ERA for the Devil Rays in the first half. He has good control and doesn’t strike people out. Dodger Stadium won’t hide his home run tendencies.
Aubrey Huff To Houston?
Got a good one today. I admit I was skeptical at first, but an independent source verified the rumor.
It seems that Arizona, Houston, Los Angeles, and Tampa Bay have some sort of deal in the works. It is known that Jayson Werth and Aubrey Huff are involved, but the other players have not yet been revealed. Apparently Werth is headed to Tampa Bay or Arizona – my sources differ in opinion here.
Both sources indicated that Aubrey Huff will be joining the Astros. Such a move would certainly cloud up the Astros’ 1B/OF situation. They’d have Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, Jason Lane, Willy Taveras, Preston Wilson, and Huff. We know that Bagwell may not be able to play, and Lane and Taveras are trade candidates. Huff mainly played right field and first base for the Devil Rays this year.
UPDATE: It now looks to be a three team deal with the Diamondbacks, Devil Rays, and Astros involved (Werth is out of the picture). Huff to the Astros is still the main piece, and the deal supposedly is contingent on Bagwell retiring and freeing up the insurance money. That’s all for now.
Baez To Dodgers?
Tony Jackson of the Los Angeles Daily News reported a new Danys Baez rumor today. Apparently, the Dodgers have inquired on him given Eric Gagne‘s impending free agency. Of course, Baez is due for a big contract himself when he hits free agency after 2006.
These talks are still preliminary, but I was able to uncover some more info from a source close to the Devil Rays. Word from that end is that Edwin Jackson and Dioner Navarro would go to Tampa Bay in a deal for Baez and Toby Hall. The Dodgers may find Navarro expendable with top prospect Russell Martin perhaps a year away.
As mentioned on this site a week ago, the Baez for Aaron Heilman rumor wasn’t equal value for the Mets. This possibility seems more reasonable to me.
Craig Wilson, Cubs Bullpen, and More
Today seems to be a bit of a slow day on the trade rumors front. I’m still working on gathering some Tejada info. For now I’ll just say that you shouldn’t discount the White Sox even after both major Chicago newspapers quoted Kenny Williams saying no deal will happen. As commenters in this thread pointed out, Williams has been known to keep a low profile and be less than forthright when talking to the media.
Somehow, a rumor came about yesterday that San Francisco’s KNBR 1050 was reporting that the Pirates had dealt Craig Wilson to the Athletics for Kirk Saarloos. This rumor appears to have been fabricated; it doesn’t seem that the radio station ever proposed it. KNBR didn’t return my emails, but I’m still pretty sure there’s nothing to the rumor. It’s not implausible, as Billy Beane is the type of GM to acquire an undervalued player and worry about his outfielder surplus later. I don’t believe Dave Littlefield’s statements about not wanting to trade Wilson. He’d be valuable to many teams, and the Pirates’ recent acquisitions indicate that they’ll deal him.
RotoAuthority’s latest:
2006 Fantasy Guide On Sale For $9.99 For A Limited Time
Good readin’: 1060west has updated its post about the Cubs’ revamped bullpen. This quote resonated with me:
"Seen in the light of statistical evidence, it becomes clear that nothing has been done to improve the Cub bullpen from April 2005 to this stage; in fact, if anything, the Cubs have actually gotten weaker in going from Hawkins to Howry and Remlinger to Eyre."
The main point is that Hendry tends to purchase free agent relievers for big bucks following the reliever’s best season. Not a smart strategy.
The Phillies and Ryan Franklin? This won’t end well. I’m just happy to see than Ryan Madson will finally get a shot in the rotation; he’s got a 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 7.27 K/9 in 166 Major League innings. High strikeout totals and good control are always a great combo.
Mets Renew Interest In Jeff Kent?
The Jeff Kent to the Mets rumor first surfaced in early December. Now it’s rearing its ugly head again, this time courtesy of Gotham Baseball. According to author Mark Healey, Anderson Hernandez would be involved and the deal could happen soon. I asked my Mets source for his take on the Kent possibility.
He told me the deal isn’t nearly as close as the article might imply. He said the Mets are willing to part with Anderson Hernandez, but the catch is that the Dodgers have to take Kaz Matsui too. No money would be exchanged. My source thinks this is simply a proposal the Mets put out there to get the ball rolling; Ned Colletti would never make the trade as described.
My source puts the ultimate chances of a deal at 50/50, and mentioned that ditching Matsui and adding one more 100 RBI bat at the same time would definitely be a feather in Omar’s cap. However, even as a cash-saving move, this doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Dodgers. I’ll keep you posted as further permutations leak out.
Dodgers Nab Nomar
According to ESPN.com and other sources, the Dodgers have signed Nomar Garciaparra to a one-year deal worth between $6 and $8MM. He’ll play first base, a position he’s never played in his Major League career. The move from shortstop to first shouldn’t be a major hurdle. Grady Little will have an extra infielder on his hands when Cesar Izturis returns, but that’s not really a bad thing.
The Dodgers have begun to craft a solid veteran lineup. They will be relying on the health of players like Garciaparra, J.D. Drew, and possibly Reggie Sanders.
With Garciaparra off the free agent market, the options are slim for the Orioles and Astros. Both have vacancies they hoped to fill via free agency. The Astros will likely settle for Rondell White or Juan Encarnacion for their outfield. A signing would illustrate a lack of confidence in Jeff Bagwell‘s ability to play first base on a regular basis. A retirement would be a classy move by Bagwell that would save the team $17MM. Obviously he’s entitled to the full terms of his contract, but maybe the team can convince him to retire with a $10MM buyout. The Astros are already on the hook for Bagwell’s $7MM buyout for 2008.
This offseason, the Orioles managed to snag the best available catcher in Ramon Hernandez and upset Javy Lopez in the process. Look for Lopez to be shipped off in what’s become a buyer’s market. After all, Bengie Molina is still available and could take a one year deal at this point. Lopez will make $8.5MM in the last year of his contract in 2006. Lopez could be a decent fit in San Diego should the Padres realize that Doug Mirabelli is not a starting catcher.
A Damon signing doesn’t make sense for the Orioles at this point, who probably don’t have the players to place better than 4th in the AL East. The O’s should ship catcher Eli Whiteside and/or a mid-level pitching prospect off to Philadelphia for Jason Michaels. They can promote outfielder Nick Markakis by midseason to round out the outfield.
Choi Would Be Good Fit For D-Rays
Hee Seop Choi, a remnant of the DePodesta Administration, is a lame duck at first base for the Dodgers. The club has nowhere to play Choi and no desire to keep him around. Where could the Korean 1B end up this winter?
The Athletics figure to split time at first base between Nick Swisher and mostly Dan Johnson. However, one of them could play DH and the starting job could be handed to Choi. Bargain players with something to prove are right up Billy Beane’s alley, as evidenced by the Milton Bradley trade.
Choi would also fit nicely in the low pressure environment of Tampa Bay. If Travis Lee doesn’t accept arbitration with the D-Rays, they could plug Choi in and give him at least 400 ABs at first. Choi’s prospect window is closing after 363 Major League games, but he’s never gotten more than 320 at-bats in a season. It would be a low-risk, high-reward move similar to the Sean Burroughs trade.
Marlins Still After Gathright
Today, a source close to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays updated me on their efforts to trade Joey Gathright. The word is that the Marlins and Dodgers are the frontrunners, while the Rangers and Cubs are still "in the mix."
Three days ago, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com mentioned that the Marlins could send Scott Olsen to the Rays for Gathright. Gathright essentially is Juan Pierre, and the Marlins would have a formidable 1-5 in their order, believe it or not. Call me crazy, but the Fish are a few well-timed breakouts, reliever success stories, and a couple of miracles away from sniffing .500 in ’06. I know you’re probably bookmarking this story right now to disparage me at the end of the season for hinting that the Marlins could be a .500 team.
Anyway, it’s unclear to my source whether the Marlins actually offered Olsen for Gathright. He did mention that the Devil Rays like Olsen a lot, despite his late-season elbow inflammation. Olsen flashed huge strikeout potential in the minors, and jumped past Triple A this year to start four games for the Marlins.
The Dodgers’ interest probably hinges on Kenny Lofton‘s decision, as L.A. has an offer out to him. The Cubs seem an unlikely destination. Plugging in Gathright could result in a severely power-deficient outfield. Gathright would be a nice fit for Texas, and could score a boatload of runs fronting that lineup.