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Marcus Semien, A’s Mutually Interested In Extension

By Anthony Franco | November 25, 2019 at 9:22pm CDT

9:22pm: The A’s are more focused on Semien’s arbitration figure than a potential extension, according to agent Joel Wolfe, Heyman tweets.

7:32pm: A’s shortstop Marcus Semien has told the front office he’s interested in a long-term extension, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The A’s “would love to keep Semien” and the two sides will kick off dialogue on talks about a long-term deal, Heyman adds.

Of course, mutual interest in an extension doesn’t guarantee that a deal will come to fruition. The low-payroll A’s haven’t had ample success retaining homegrown stars in the past, and any deal with Semien would certainly be pricey. The AL MVP finalist is entering his final season of team control via arbitration, in which he’s projected to make $13.5MM. With free agency not too far in the future, Semien has the leverage to hold out for a rather lucrative deal.

There’s some chance the A’s don’t even have to top the market to retain Semien’s services. The Bay Area native starred at Berkeley and has spent the past five seasons playing in Oakland. Over the first three of those seasons, Semien was merely an average, if durable, performer. The A’s stuck with Semien, though, as Heyman notes, and they’ve been rewarded the past two years. Semien totaled 3.8 fWAR in 2018 before truly breaking out last season, slashing .285/.369/.522 (137 wRC+) en route to a nearly eight-win season.

On both sides of the ball, Semien’s development has been remarkable. Defensively, he endured some well-publicized throwing tribulations in his first two-plus years in Oakland. The past two seasons, though, he’s almost completely eradicated the miscues and transformed into one of the game’s top defensive infielders. Since the start of 2018, Semien has totaled 14 defensive runs saved at shortstop, ninth-most at the position.

At the plate, Semien put together a banner year in nearly every category in 2019. Always one with a keen eye for the strike zone, Semien chased fewer pitches and made more contact than ever, enabling him to sport a career-high walk rate and a career-low strikeout rate. He also upped his hard contact by nearly ten points from 2018, contributing to career-best marks in homers (33) and ISO (.237).

Before last season, Semien had never before been above league average with the bat, so it would be fair to anticipate some regression in 2020. That said, he turned 29 in September and Statcast largely supports his bottom line results from last season, so there’s little reason to believe he’ll revert all the way back to a league average hitter. Even output 15-20 percent better than average at the dish, while not at the level he performed in 2019, would make Semien a true star given his elite durability and plus glove at the infield’s most important position.

Semien’s market is tough to gauge. If he were to play out 2020, he’d hit free agency having just turned 30. Assuming he were to stay healthy and approach anything near his level of production the past two seasons, Oakland would surely make him a qualifying offer. That could be a small hit to his market, but there’d be ample interest in Semien regardless. If he repeats his 2019 production, he’d no doubt be among the top free agents in next year’s class. However, there is certainly some risk involved for the player in taking that course of action. He has been extremely durable to this point, but injuries are always a risk for any player. Any regression in performance, too, would obviously curtail his earning power. One need look no further than the top shortstop on this year’s market, Didi Gregorius, for a cautionary tale of how quickly one’s long-term outlook could change. Of course, Gregorius has never approached the type of season Semien just put up.

For the A’s, committing to Semien would be a franchise-defining decision. As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored in his offseason outlook, Oakland doesn’t have much wiggle room if they plan to open 2020 with a payroll in a similar range as their $92MM season-opening outlay last year. However, much of that payroll is tied up in arbitration-eligible players, with Oakland’s only commitments beyond 2020 a combined $25MM to Khris Davis and Stephen Piscotty. Matt Chapman and Matt Olson will surely get more expensive as they progress through arbitration, too, but there seems to be some room in the long-term budget if the A’s front office feels comfortable betting on Semien long-term. Oakland has previously made runs at both Semien and Chapman in the past, but to no avail. With both players having truly broken out, neither would come cheap at this point. The club did extend Davis as he entered his walk year, although the commitment required to lock up a two-way star shortstop like Semien dwarfs that of a DH-only like Davis.

Semien’s future will perhaps be the defining decision of the offseason for executive vice president Billy Beane, GM David Forst, and the rest of the Oakland front office. Earlier this month, MLBTR readers weighed in on the subject. In a tightly-contested vote, 37% called for Oakland to extend Semien (even if at market value), 32% thought it best to trade him this offseason, while 31% felt the sides should simply play out the season.

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Oakland Athletics Marcus Semien

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45 Comments

  1. Stat

    6 years ago

    He’s a local guy, it’d be nice for fans to see him get paid to be the face of the franchise

    4
    Reply
  2. TrillionaireTeamOperator

    6 years ago

    I’m impressed with the A’s opening up their pocket books. This is how baseball should be. A bunch of guys neither under paid nor overpaid. Guys making $10-18M AAV to be quality starters and consistent presences on the field and at the plate rather than 1-3 guys making $30M+ AAV hamstringing the roster. I hope they get it done. And Matt Chapman. Wouldn’t mind seeing a bounce back from Khris Davis either…

    1
    Reply
    • powderb

      6 years ago

      They haven’t offered him anything

      Reply
      • TrillionaireTeamOperator

        6 years ago

        I’m assuming what the offer could represent if it happens.

        Reply
      • TrillionaireTeamOperator

        6 years ago

        I think a 2 year/$25M deal w/ a $2M buyout on a $15M option would get it done and not break the bank.

        Reply
    • arc89

      6 years ago

      Chapman will not be signing any long term deal with Boras his agent. Boras knows that Chapman’s ceiling is $250 million deal. Boras already said he will not allow Chapman sign any extension at this time.

      1
      Reply
  3. mlb1225

    6 years ago

    Eh, I’d definitely wait another season to see if he could do it again. Definitely a top notch fielder, but but he never had an OPS+ above 100 before 2019.

    3
    Reply
    • PiratesFan1981

      6 years ago

      Sounds like a Josh Bell situation, eh?

      Reply
      • mlb1225

        6 years ago

        Yea, I felt they should have extended Bell before the 2019 seasons. His value wouldn’t have been lower entering the season. However I highly doubted that an extension would, or will be met because his agent is Scott Boars.

        Reply
    • johnrealtime

      6 years ago

      If he does it another season then he’s getting a lot more money. Risk v reward

      Reply
    • Strike Four

      6 years ago

      He also was never a top notch defender until last year too. But you want more evidence than 750 PA for some reason….

      Reply
      • mlb1225

        6 years ago

        He occasionally showed he had the ability to be a very good shortstop before 2017, like in 2015 when he had a 1.5 dWAR and 5 DRS. Regardless, he showed in a second straight season he was able to handle shortstop to an above average level. If I were the A’s, I would want to see his bat a second time around before dealing out a contract.

        Reply
        • Strike Four

          6 years ago

          He hit 27 homers in a season before, and walk rates dont go up and down quickly. He figured it out last year and should be counted on for an .850+ OPS and sterling defense and good health for the next 5 years. I don’t think we need to see more, unless you want him to go out of your price range.

          Reply
        • mlb1225

          6 years ago

          I doubt he becomes the sub-100 OPS+ guy he was before 2019, but I’m pretty sure any team would like to see another season just in case.

          Reply
      • missing the moustaches

        6 years ago

        He was a gold glove finalist the past 2 seasons…

        Reply
  4. catfishspyhunter

    6 years ago

    big fan of Semien and would love to see a deal – 3/4 yrs tops though

    Reply
  5. PiratesFan1981

    6 years ago

    With the ball being juiced this season, I wonder what Semien numbers would be going forward (after the fix the juiced balls). Just about every MLB player had a career year and it’s hard to judge how could of a hitter a player is with the ball going further than years past. It is just ridiculous to see some of these players hitting 25+ HRs when they have been around 15-19 HRs. Unless they ate their spinach and got some super human strength like popeye, I don’t see these type of players like Semien or Josh Bell (two names off the top of my head, but plenty more examples to add to these two) to carry over to similar numbers over this past season. Once the juiced balls are taken out, I see these players returning back to reality and hitting were they have most of their careers.

    1
    Reply
    • Strike Four

      6 years ago

      Semien hit 27 homers in 2016, he’s literally always had power, it just a second to come back after his injury, and breaking out at age 28 is an extremely obvious thing that happens constantly. Try again.

      1
      Reply
    • andrewgauldin

      6 years ago

      I heard via some dudes on FanGraphs and the people who do the Rates & Barrels podcast that the MLB will be keeping the same balls. Still will be juiced this year

      Reply
  6. Strike Four

    6 years ago

    If they can get him to accept a QO, he’ll be 31 going into 2022 and easier to sign.

    Reply
    • spinach

      6 years ago

      Because a team has convinced a player to accept a qualifying offer before.

      1
      Reply
  7. Thomas Bliss

    6 years ago

    That trade between the White Sox and A’s involving him is so lopsided now a days.

    4
    Reply
    • Strike Four

      6 years ago

      The A’s were also apparently destroyed in “giving away” a wife beater to the Cubs that led to them getting the superior player in Semien to begin with. There’s levels to this…..

      1
      Reply
      • Thomas Bliss

        6 years ago

        I hated that trade then and still do today. Semien had just won the Southern League MVP and was exciting to watch. The Barons haven’t won that award since.

        Reply
        • Priggs89

          6 years ago

          He also had hands of stone back in those days. Big props to him for putting in the work to become a good defender. He was laughably bad..

          1
          Reply
        • Strike Four

          6 years ago

          He also played 4 of his 85 games on Chicago at SS, he was mostly a 2B/3B. He was even playing in the OF in the minors as recently as 2014. He never really played anywhere with regularity. His work ethic is second to none and he’s proven it everywhere except base stealing proficiency. I think 5/120 is fair for both sides.

          Reply
        • Thomas Bliss

          6 years ago

          Well at the time we had Alexei at SS and Beckham at 2nd. We really like Semien but wasn’t sure at the time if we was going to be able to keep him up the middle. He was just fun to watch that year in Birmingham and I hope you pay him his worth.

          Reply
        • ChapmansVacuum

          6 years ago

          Most of his errors in Oak were throwing that one year he was really bad before Wash fixed him.

          Reply
        • maximumvelocity

          6 years ago

          His being laughably bad is an indictment of the White Sox professional development abilities and pro scouting.

          In fact, all three players in that deal improved with the A’s.

          Reply
  8. keepinthafaithsd1

    6 years ago

    Apparently semien is trying to plant his seed in Oakland. *Da-dun-dun cymbol crash*

    Reply
  9. snotrocket

    6 years ago

    4/60 sounds like a fair deal given his track record (prior to last season) of average offense and below average defense.

    Reply
    • Strike Four

      6 years ago

      Semien deserves at minimum $20M a year. More than likely $25M a year.

      Reply
      • snotrocket

        6 years ago

        If he repeats lasts years numbers, I would completely agree with you. He would probably play himself out of the A’s price range though if they don’t extend him now and he stays hot next year.

        Reply
  10. julyn82001

    6 years ago

    Semien is a tremendous player. A’s should invest on Marcus big time. Players will see team’s commitment. Fans will note.

    1
    Reply
  11. Oxford Karma

    6 years ago

    He’s never had a season close to that before. If they offer him a fair extension, he should take it. Rip up this year and go 5/85-90 mil. If they fall apart it’s not a horrible contract for someone else to take, and he’s paid in the top 5-6 of SS

    Reply
  12. Phiilies2020

    6 years ago

    The A’s are gonna have to spend at some point to keep this roster constructed. As a fan of baseball I love this squad.

    1
    Reply
    • Thomas Bliss

      6 years ago

      They have a solid infield. Great core but how long can they keep them together.

      Reply
  13. ChapmansVacuum

    6 years ago

    New stadium for 2023.

    TV opt out in 2023, with a team that will have been good for several years in a brand new park in a top 3 media market.

    One of the richer owners in MLB.

    Team already announced they would be ramping up payroll going into the new stadium in each year.

    Oak city council just told the City attorney to drop the suit allowing the colosseum sale to go through solving one of the last hurdles on the new stadium.

    Chapman said after KD signed last year that things like that were what he wanted to see to be interested in an extension. All the expensive years on deals for Chapman and Olson would be in the new ballpark. So signing Semien helps you sign both of them and lock up the best defensive infield in baseball, while you try to find a 2B that can round out the rockstars with a fourth perennial GG candidate.

    Dollars invested now in putting a really top quality product on the field pays back ten fold when a good team christens a new stadium and negotiates a long term lucrative TV deal.

    These aren’t the A’s we have been used to anymore, and attendance may increase with the GSW across the bridge the Raiders in LV, and the A’s as the last hometown team standing. Dont be super surprised at higher attendance this next year.

    PS Montas/Luzardo/Manaea/Puk/Fiers as the 1 thru 5 is just worlds better then what we have had the last two years when we won 196 games!

    Reply
    • Sadler

      6 years ago

      What new stadium? Nothing has been approved.

      1
      Reply
  14. enricopallazzo

    6 years ago

    Didn’t see this outcome when they traded Russell to the Cubs, then flipped Samardzija to the White Sox for Marcus. As an A’s fan who despises the Cubs, couldn’t be happier. And yes I realize Russell was a good player for awhile and also still not thrilled of the trades the A’s made that summer as it related to 2014 and what could of been.

    Reply
  15. JayRyder

    6 years ago

    I’d say 4/60 Including this coming season. But I think that might be too much.

    I’d rather only go three seasons. But 4/50 instead would be ok.

    1
    Reply
    • AndyWarpath

      6 years ago

      That’s not going to be close.

      Reply
    • YankeesBleacherCreature

      6 years ago

      He can play out this season and if he puts up a 5+ fWAR season while maintaining his premium defense, he’ll easily get 4 years (plus 5th year vesting option) even with a Q.O. attached. The only way he would entertain signing a 4/60 extension is if he can opt-out after year one and two.

      Reply
  16. richt

    6 years ago

    This writer doesn’t know how to use the word “too” in a sentence… sheesh.

    Reply
  17. barrybonds1994

    6 years ago

    Looks like we can conclude that the A’s actually won the Samardzija deals

    Reply

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