Marcus Semien emerged as a true star in 2019. He slashed .285/.369/.522 with 33 home runs despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home park (137 wRC+). Semien’s walk rate spiked to a career-high 11.6%, he cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 13.7%, and easily set career marks in every power metric. The baseball traveling further than ever certainly helped, but Semien also set new career highs in hard contact rate and average exit velocity.
He was also as reliable as they come for manager Bob Melvin. Semien started 161 games at shortstop and rated as one of the league’s most valuable defenders, reaping the rewards of an elite work ethic which the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chronicled in June. Those well-rounded contributions (he was worth 7.6 fWAR, fifth-most in MLB) have Semien alongside Mike Trout and Alex Bregman as finalists for the AL MVP award.
This offseason, though, could present an interesting question for A’s president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst. Semien has 5.118 years of MLB service, meaning he’s entering his final season of team control. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Semien to land a $13.5MM salary in arbitration this offseason. That’s a huge bargain for the production Semien brings to the table, even if one is skeptical he’ll maintain his superstar level numbers next season. That said, it’s not inconsequential for an A’s team that ended last season with a $94MM payroll, per Roster Resource, but is currently projected to exceed $111MM in 2020. A big class of potential non-tenders, as explored by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne in his A’s Offseason Outlook, will surely cut that number down, but Oakland doesn’t figure to have a ton of financial flexibility this offseason.
That could lead to some speculation about Semien’s long-term future. By all accounts, player and organization remain extremely fond of one another, but at last look, there seemed to be little movement on extension talks. That’s not to say the sides will give up on hammering out a long-term agreement, but one coming together seems unlikely. After all, the 29-year-old has little financial incentive to give a hometown discount (and it would truly be a hometown discount, as Semien is from the Bay Area and attended college at UC Berkeley) being so close to free agency. The A’s, of course, aren’t typically ones to top the market on star players.
While Oakland no doubt hopes to contend in 2020, the AL West will be formidable. The Astros will again be heavy favorites coming off a 107-win season, and the Angels are widely expected to pursue the market’s top free agent starters. Perhaps the time is right for the A’s to gauge Semien’s value on the trade market, particularly if they don’t anticipate coming to an agreement on an extension. A Semien trade would be unpopular among A’s fans, but it wouldn’t be the first time Oakland traded a star player in his prime.
Assuming Semien doesn’t settle for less than he’s worth on the open market to stay in Oakland, how should the A’s proceed? Get a deal done with Semien at all costs and build around a likable, hometown star? Make the unpopular move to send him away after he’s fully blossomed, but perhaps at peak value? Or play it out, make a run for a third straight postseason appearance and recoup a compensatory draft pick if/when Semien leaves in free agency?
(poll link for app users, answer choices in random order)
Biased A’s fan in me wants long term extension
Am I the only one that doesn’t see him coming close to repeating his 2019 output?
He had his best season at an age when guys usually have their best season. He is not a generational talent so the A’s should offer 3/36 and stay firm. He’ll play up to that money.
Wow if I was the A’s I’d sign that in a heartbeat! He’s worth more like $4/78
Nope, we are legion.
It’s so strange. A few years ago I remember everyone saying he was terrible defensively. Just goes to show how hard work can pay off.
Yeah, defense, especially infield defense, is probably the least talent-dependent part of the game. You get better through hard work. I always like seeing guys who come up with a lead glove end up as excellent defenders.
In Arenado’s draft writeups, multiple outlets had him as a future 1B/LF. Hard work, man.
I’m saying the As are cheap. If they don’t don’t find a super cheap deal then they will trade him.
The bad signing of Khris Davis will more then likely show Semien the door after this season.. A’s may wish to offer him a qualifying offer for 2021, which at this point in time he will certainly deny..
Davis will not come back and as a one trick pony is sucking a majority of payroll flexibility out of the A’s,. The next coming of. Billy Butler….
Reminiscent of the Eric Chavez contract…
I can see someone draw parallels to Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada, but that is going to be with Chapman and Semien, not Davis. Not even Jermaine Dye,. Davis is Erubiel Durazo.
The problem for the A’s was that they signed Jermaine Dye and Eric Chavez to large deals because of how good they were. They were great defensively and offensively. But each suffered a career ending injury.
Dye broke his leg, and never was able to come back from it.
Chavez kept putting so much pressure on himself due to his deal that he kept playing through injuries. He played through a back injury, which led to a shoulder injury, and so on. He never recovered from the back injury and the shoulder injury threw him off 3B and killed his defense.
People were very mad that Miguel Tejada wanted to stay with the A’s for a discount, but the A’s thinking they could only afford one, took Chavez over Tejada. Chavez was more valuable till then, and much younger, but injuries killed it and Tejada caught fire right afterwards.
So Semien and Chapman may be Chavez/Tejada 2.0. They are in similar states in a way, as it is again an older SS versus a ~4-5 year younger 3B.
If they try and keep Semien, will it impact their ability to keep Chapman and Olson? Positively or negatively?
I think the real key to the A’s keeping their stars is if the ballpark gets built. But as we’ve seen, the City of Oakland doesn’t want to keep the A’s, they just don’t want anyone else to have them.
To be fair Davis was playing hurt most of the year – the hip injury in left field in the interleague game, and then getting plunked a couple of times.
To those suggesting we can’t compete with the Astros – we blew an AL high 30 saves last season. Bounce back campaigns from KD, and specifically Trivino & Treinen might go a long way towards closing the gap.
This gap reduced further by the “Boras representative – representing himself” aka Gerrit Cole…
Gap reduced by having solid consistent staff instead of having to play bandaid it all year. Hopefully all the rookies take off instead of getting TJ again.
Next year is our great chance to win the WEST, so I don’t think that he will get traded. Give him a QO after a good year and then see what happens. Maybe after 2020 his value will be lower and it will be easier to get an extension done or something, he definitely would like to stay. Hopefully we find guys from our farm like Mateo, Neuse, Allen, Barreto to cover 2B and SS in 2021 and forward. But it is always a good idea to at least listen to the trade offers.
Please explain why next yearis greater then every other year. Semien just had what very well might be a career year.Houston will very possibly try to sign either Strasburg or Cole.I,m not sure what makes your chance of catching the Stros any better next year then any other year.If you keep Semien you’ll end up at best with a decent not great draft pick.If you trade him now you could get a pretty good haul based on last season and the reasonable salary attached to him.Please explain what makes this year look so good for the A’s
Astros are not signing Cole or Strasburg because they can’t sign every good player that comes along. their best player in Springer is about to get a monster contract. They need to rebuild their bullpen. Like all good teams the cost will be super high to keep all of them together.
Bregman is their best player
The Astros are bound to regress. They have a lot of free agents. Cole, Joe Smith, McHugh,Chirinos, Miley, Harris, Rondon, Devenski, and Maldonado.
With current arbitration projections, the Astros are already $15 million above the luxury threshold. The Astros need to completely rebuild their bullpen, catching core, and add AT LEAST one starter.
If Oakland abandons their gritty style and gives big money to older guys, then they will not only fall short in the talent column, they’ll also fall short in the intangibles column.
Luzardo and Puk will join the rotation from the start, we saw how good Luz was, probably gonna win ROY. Manaea is back and healthy, unfortunately his only bad start in 2019 came at the worst possible time, but still I’m looking forward to having him. Montas was looking dominant until he got that stupid suspension. Suddendly Mike Fiers seems to be a nr 5 starter. Bassitt now becomes a weapon from the bullpen, maybe a 3IP closer like we used Luzardo in his first majors stint. Maybe you still sign a free agent, a reunion with Homer Bailey for 1 year and 2-5 mln would be nice.
The bullpen will have Hendriks, Petit, Soria(had a nice September), Bassitt, Wendelken (also showed promise), Trivino (bounceback candidate), Finnegan (strong season in the high minors) and then some of the starters I mensioned above could be there also. Some improvements will be needed I’d like to add some yound talent in trades like Joe Jimenez, maybe get lefties like Drew Pomeranz, Cody Reed, Robbie Erlin, Drew Smyly, Alex Wood.
Depth : Cotton is back from TJS, he was bad, but I heard that he didn’t throw his changeup at all to have a smooth recovery, I want to see how he does in Spring Training. Gossett was still recovering, but has showed up in the Arizona Fall League and pitched well. I see him more as a 2-3 IP pitcher than a stater, he was always good only at getting the guys out through the first time in the order. Kaprielian and Holmes had good seasons in AAA. And then there is still Dunshee pitching for team USA during this tournament.
Offensively we aren’t losing anyone. Semien, Canha, Chapman, Olson, Laureano are still here. Sean Murphy will be behing the plate for a full season, catcher is no longer our weakness. It won’t be if he can stay healthy. Chapman, Olson and Laureano are still young and can get better. We scored a lot of runs despite down seasons from KD and Piscotty. We have a lot of interesting options like Canha, Brown, Payton who had a monster year in AAA.
After next year we could lose valuable guys like Semien, Hendriks, Petit, Fiers, Soria and Canha. Chapman and Olson will go through arbitration for the first time with Manaea and Montas also getting raises that could be big. We aren’t the Dodgers or the Yankees, so it will be hard to keep those important players in the future. I believe that 2020 is the year in which the A’s are going to have their best shot at winning the title in this window. We are coming from back to back 97 win seasons, so we are one of the top teams in baseball. Now we will try to make that jump, that means winning the WEST and then hopefully a deep October run afterwards.
I still think Treinen is the exact kind of guy who will bounce back, and if he does, the risk is well worth the reward. Imagine 2018 Treinen combined with 2019 Hendriks? That’s a high end risk the A’s need to take.
Angels any good?. My guess is you say no. Ohtani is more highly regarded than Luzardo. Just on pitching, no one would take Luzardo over Ohtani.
BP ranked Canning the 56th best prospect, and is not coming off significant injury. Puk ranked 77 as is coming off significant injury. Advantage Angels.
Manea and Heaney are similar, Heaney was a better prospect, Manea is coming off significant injury and 30 innings. Advantage A’s.
Then the A’s have a PED user and Fiers. And the Angels have whoever they add.
Just saying. You have reason for optimism But so much can go wrong. Just like with the Angels every darn year. .
There are some interesting buy low options in the market like Morrow, Betances and others. I don’t think Treinen gets tendered, but that doesn’t mean that he definitely won’t come back. Look what happened with Fiers. He signed a 2 year deal after getting non tendered.
Speaking about Angels, Canning and Ohtani for a whole year would give them a boost together with not having Cahill and Harvey, but I’d take the A’s pitching though. Shohei will only be pitching like once a week and there are so many question marks, last year the Angels gave up almost 200 more runs than the A’s. I have to admit that I was partly impressed with Jose Suarez at times while pitching against Oakland and he can surely improve, but his numbers weren’t good at all. I honestly don’t think I’d be taking Ohtani over Luzardo after seeing what Jesus was doing in the minors and in September, but I understand he is no sure ace. I’m also not that sure about Puk and that’s why I want to add Bailey to the picture for depth, which is on the A’s side. And the bullpen needs a revolution. Too many holes to fill in to go after Cole in my opinion even if Adell becomes a regular OF. Getting Grandal, Roark, Lyles, Cishek, Harris and other relievers would be a better thing to do.
If you are an A’s fan, there is a lot of cause for optimism. And they won 97 games last year.
there is no reason anyone should be against offering a player market value.
The A’s just don’t have the money…..
Honestly I don’t see the A’s contending next season so most likely they will trade him when the value is high.
You must not watch baseball and know nothing about the A’s.
Hey, I don’t think the A’s is a bad team. I just think there are better teams out there. If the A’s makes it to the playoffs, more powers to them.
the A’s will better than the Astros in 2020, barring major injuries of course
LMAO! Be better than the Astros, how so? Has Houston’s core broken up, is the band not back together or am I missing something?!…A’s will finish 2nd in the West yet again behind the Astros, but will give it another decent push.
Subtract their best starter in Cole and they are not that strong.as before. A’s will be adding better starters so it will be even this year on who is better.
Cole, Chirinos, Smith, Miley, McHugh, Rondon, Harris, Maldonado, Devenski, the Astros just lost a big chunk of their roster to FA.
A’s barely lost anyone to FA: Bailey, Anderson, Roark, Diekman. All easily replaceable from within.
@texas_slim85
“Has Houston’s core broken up, is the band not back together or am I missing something?!”
You’re missing something. Several important pieces are leaving, especially Cole, Joe Smith, McHugh, Chirinos, Miley, Harris, Rondon, Devenski, and Maldonado… That’s gonna have an impact.
Of your list, some things are not exactly as important as others. Miley wasn’t even important enough to put on the postseason roster. I would argue that Cole is really the only truly important name on that list.
Not to mention the fact that none of those players have LEFT yet.
The bullpen is the most fluid part of any team so they may find some pretty good alternatives elsewhere, but losing Harris, Smith, Rondon, and even guys like mchugh and Devenski might hurt them enough. Then they still need to find at least two rotation pieces and hope McCullers comes back strong. It’s certainly not hard to see the A’s catching up to them this year.
Devenski is still arbitration eligible for the Astros.
The history does not agree with that. But we shall see!
I usually say that then they end up surprising me. But next year they have Luzardo and Puk entering a rotation mix already featuring some decent options. They have a good offense and could very well win the west if the Astros regret enough
*regress
Should have extended him before he figured out how to throw to first base. He was always a pretty good hitter.
I worked with a relative of Semien when he was first acquired by the A’s. At the time, he had a lot of doubts about whether he could play SS, whether he’d be a casualty of Beane’s revolving door of players, etc. But he always had a great work ethic, and he has improved every year. I hope they sign him long term.
Billy Beane needs to convince A’s ownership Semien is tremendous player that the team needs to keep for a very promising future…
Beane will convince the other MLB GM’s that he’s a tremendous player and get 2-3 players back for him. Lol
Marcus has become a beloved member of the franchise. Just about every A’s fan I know wants him extended.
So that means they will not sign him long term.
Didn’t they just do exactly what you said with Khris Davis?
OR can A’s fans not exist online without acting like everythings terrible all the time? Even when they’ve got a 100 win team??? lol
And they got burned by KD. Once bitten twice shy?
Every Rose has its Thorn…
I don’t see Beane making a long term commitment to any player at market value going forward. Most realistic scenario is they let it ride for 2020, make him the QO that he rejects, and Semien walks into FA.
I think they’ll end up trading him. Unless Billy Beanes philosophy has miraculously changed, or if Semien would sign long term at a discount, trade seems like the most likely scenario.
The idea that the A’s can’t afford to pay players is ludicrous.
Prior to the Giants opening their current stadium, the A’s outdrew the Giants by an average of more than 500,000 fans per year for a decade. They are in the 5th largest metropolitan market in America.
They only claimed to be “small market” to increase their revenue sharing from MLB. Now that MLB is finally cutting them off from this fraud, they will have to build a sustainable winner to maximize profits.
“They only claimed to be “small market” to increase their revenue sharing from MLB. Now that MLB is finally cutting them off from this fraud,”
They only HAD to do that, because the fraudulent, cheating, scumbag Giants lied about moving to San Jose, which was the reason why the A’s gave them rights in the first place. They are banned from almost all of the Bay Area, and the Giants are holding their stake over them because THEY want them gone, when the A’s saved the Giants in 92 when they gave them San Jose. Disgusting, greedy behavior by the abhorrent Giants ownership. Shame on them. The Bay Area can support THREE teams, but the greedy Giants want it all. San Jose deserves more than an A-ball team, they have a higher population than SF!
Don’t you “fraud” the A’s, the Giants are the ones 100% at fault here. MLB is pathetic in letting the Giants lie and cheat another team like this.
The territory rights didn’t belong to the A’s to begin with, so they didn’t “give” them to the Giants. That narrative is so far off base.
It’s the lot of a small/mid market franchise. Pay him the arb number, then say “thanks” and kick him down the stairs.
It’s a tough reality, but it beats tying up payroll when you don’t even know if you’ll be the Oakland A’s or the Portland Prognosticators.
Isn’t this what we were all expecting to get from his prospect ratings? I’m glad he finally managed to put everything together. I don’t know if 137 OPS+ is what we’ll keep getting, but I bet he’ll only regress slightly across the board. By my personal guess, he’s worth $20MM annually.
a’s fans (BOTH OF EM!) ought to prepare themselves for Semien’s departure because there is no way Mr. Beane pays market price for him … and a Chapman/Olson trade doesn’t seem too far fetched with a cheapskate outfit like this
beane doesnt provide payroll to the team, but you and your brain cells (BOTH OF THEM!) might want to ease off on the baseball talk for a while…
What the A’s SHOULD do is lock up Semien and their other young stars to long term contracts as a way to build a consistently competitive team. They’re supposedly going to build a new park and will want a team that draws big crowds to it. Fans want to see “their” players, not a constantly changing cast of will-bes and used-to-bes.
However, what they will do is get rid of all of these guys just as they hit their peak years. Beane will bring in a whole new cast of players who will, in turn, become future stars with other teams. Cheap is as cheap does.
I don’t agree with it, but given the Athletics past, and how they conduct business, trade him now, and try and sign Didi to a 1-2 year deal. Or trade for Freddy Galvis if Cincy signs Didi.
As an A’s fan, I want Semien locked up–it’d be nice to not only retain a player for once, but it’d be especially sweet since he’s local!
However, resigning him at market value following one elite season seems a bit risky–considering the A’s have to be smarter than most with their money.
If Semien were willing to offer a hometown discount, then I’d say go for it. But he has earned every right to seek whatever contract he desires.
KD kind of shot every young A in the foot by falling flat on his face after signing the big contract. Now the FO is likely to be gunshy…
A’s are going to let arby decide, then offer him a QO, and if he accepts the A’s will be able to pay him $18M or whatever then extend him on like a 3/45 deal because he’ll be 32.
You wanted to give him 200 million bucks a month ago. What changed?
Hang onto him. Find out if their young pitching can hold up. Find out if their PED user can pitch without being chemically enhanced.
See where they are in July and make a decision then based on other team’s weaknesses.
The Astros made it clear that they couldn’t sign Cole when they traded for Greinke. That would give them four 30+ million guys. The Grenke move will be their undoing.
If I were Oakland I’d want to see that kind of production again before I gave him an extension. We’ve all seen it a million times where a guy has a huge season and parlays it into a big contract only to never reach the level of production that got him the contract. This is even more important considering the team involved and their monetary limits.
Hard to believe one organization looked at both Semien and Tatis Jr and said, “Nah, ship these bums outta here.” But then they bring up Anderson. Is that SS organizational genius or SS stupidity to identify all three and launch two?
Double-edge sword; Semien’s value is sky high, Oakland needs Semien to reach the postseason again. Tough call.
Billy Beane gives extensions as much as Scott Boras clients stay on their current team
His 33 HRs is from the ball being juiced this year. Once they fix the ball issue, his HR numbers will be down. I wouldn’t trade him but extend him for max of 4 years with opt out cause on final year.
So how come Khris Davis didn’t launch about 75?