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Arbitration Eligibles: Miami Marlins

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Marlins kick off our series for 2014.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows that.

Even at less than $5MM, Stanton projects as the Marlins' highest-paid player in 2014.  If they decide to trade him this winter, it won't be because they can't afford the slugger, who remains under control through 2016.  Cishek, who projects to go through arbitration four times as a Super Two, gets a solid first-time salary in large part due to 52 career saves.

Slowey won a rotation spot out of spring training after signing a minor league deal, and looked great through his first seven starts.  By June he was sent to the bullpen, however, and in July hit the DL with a forearm strain.  He made his last appearance on July 25th.  While $1.8MM is not a terribly prohibitive salary, the Marlins may prefer other options and could non-tender Slowey by the December 2nd non-tender deadline.

Ruggiano set a career-high with 472 plate appearances, but he disappointed offensively with a .222/.298/.396 line.  He could draw trade interest as a lefty-masher who can help in center field, in advance of the non-tender deadline.  Former Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan initially formed the other part of a center field platoon with Ruggiano, but missed almost three months with back and calf injuries.  He logged some innings at third base upon his September return.  Coghlan hit .277/.326/.415 before his injury, and he's still cheap, which may be enough to convince the Marlins to tender him a contract.  Backup catcher Koyie Hill didn't return to the Majors until August, and is probably not long for the team's 40-man roster.

Assuming Stanton, Cishek, Morrison, Webb, Dunn, and Coghlan are retained, the Marlins are looking at an estimated $13.4MM for six arbitration eligible players.

NL East Notes: Mets, Nationals, Marlins

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As the Mets look to take the next step forward in their rebuilding process, they should take a page out of the Indians' playbook, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Many suggest the Red Sox as a good example for GM Sandy Alderson & Co., but their offseason additons actually cost them about $61.5MM in 2013 alone.  Sherman believes that the Mets' payroll bump will be closer to $30MM based on conversations with multiple executives, which is just $6MM shy of what the Indians spent last winter to retool their lineup.  Here's more out of the NL East..

  • After Mike Rizzo finds the club's next skipper, the focus will be on bolstering the Nationals' pitching staff for 2014, writes MLB.com's Bill Ladson.  It looked like the Nationals would be in the market for a new third baseman because of Ryan Zimmerman's throwing troubles early in the season, but they no longer have a need there as he appears to be back on track.
  • It's no longer a given that the Nationals will go out-of-house for their next manager and people who speak regularly with team management now believe bench coach Randy Knorr also has a strong chance to get the job, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. Knorr is said to have strong support within the organization and looks to be a frontrunner along with D'Backs coach Matt Williams.
  • The Marlins have reassigned hitting coach John Pierson to the minors, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.
  • The Marlins also relieved Mike Wickham of his duties as director of baseball operations while promoting Dan Noffsinger to the position, tweets Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
  • Earlier today, Steve Adams rounded up today's news on the Mets.

Marlins Fire Beinfest; Promote Hill, Jennings

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SUNDAY: The Marlins have officially announced General Manager Michael Hill will replace Beinfest as president of baseball operations and Jennings will take over as GM. The statement also said there will be no further changes meaning David Samson's job as team president is safe. 

FRIDAY 3:25pm: As expected, assistant general manager Dan Jennings will assume Beinfest's duties, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale (on Twitter). ESPN's Jerry Crasnick adds (also via Twitter) that the Marlins have fired Jim Fleming, who was a special assistant to Beinfest.

3:08pm: Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has fired president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (on Twitter).

There's been a great deal of speculation regarding Beinfest's job security in recent weeks — so much to that Beinfest publicly stated it was taking a toll on him and his family. Beinfest reportedly confronted Loria asking for a firm answer about his future with the organization two weeks ago, but it appears that he didn't receive an answer until now.

Loria's reputation has grown as an owner who is overly active in the team's personnel decisions, and his displeasure with Beinfest has grown accordingly as Beinfest has been increasingly willing to tell Loria when he doesn't approve of those calls. The two clashed over hitting coach Tino Martinez's resignation from the team after allegations that Martinez, who had been hand-picked by Loria, was being abusive with players.

Several executives from around the league feel that Loria "has marginalized the front office" by overstepping his bounds to the point where he was dictating which pitchers started which game of a day-night double-header with the Twins earlier this season (as chronicled in this piece from Spencer). The Marlins' recent extension of Greg Dobbs was reportedly worked out by Loria, who didn't even tell Beinfest or GM Michael Hill that the contract was in the works.

Beinfest took over as president of baseball operations almost six years ago to the day. Under his watch, the Marlins signed Hanley Ramirez to a then-record extension and also signed Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco to extensions. Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle signed the largest free agent deals in Marlins history during Beinfest's tenure, as shown in MLBTR's Transaction Tracker. Notable first-round picks during his time as president of baseball ops include Christian Yelich and Jose Fernandez.

Edward Creech contributed to this post.

Reactions To Marlins’ Firing Of Larry Beinfest

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This afternoon, the Marlins fired president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest, with assistant GM Dan Jennings taking over his duties. Here are some reactions from around the web.

  • It's tempting to characterize Beinfest's firing merely as Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria being Jeffrey Loria. That's part of it, CBS Sports' Scott Miller writes, but there's more to it than that. There was also the fact that Beinfest and Jennings didn't get along, and that recently, the two men had been making player acquisition decisions "simply to spite the other guy." Still, Miller posits that Beinfest's experience working with the meddlesome Loria might make him a good candidate to replace Angels GM Jerry Dipoto, who serves another meddlesome owner in Arte Moreno.
  • Beinfest says he will, in fact, be looking for another job within baseball, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter).
  • Jennings is "very highly regarded" throughout baseball, ESPN's Jayson Stark tweets. Other teams have shown interest in Jennings for general manager jobs in the past, but Stark writes that Loria would not let Jennings interview for them.
  • Both Beinfest and Jim Fleming, a special assistant who was also fired, look like good candidates for jobs elsewhere, tweets ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.

Marlins Plan To Build Around Stanton In 2014

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While there's been plenty of speculation regarding changes to the Marlins' front office lately, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reports that there's little chance the team will make the ultimate change to its big league roster by trading Giancarlo Stanton this offseason. One MLB official told Frisaro he doesn't see "any scenario" where the Fish would trade their prized right fielder, and another source indicated to him that the Marlins would like to build around Stanton next season.

Miami controls Stanton through 2016, and his salary figures to skyrocket this offseason, as he is eligible for arbitration for the first time. Frisaro speculates that a salary north of $7MM is attainable, and notes that such a number is "highly affordable" for the Marlins.

Ideally, the club would like to extend Stanton, writes Frisaro, but they have some concerns about his durability. Those concerns would seem to be justified, as Stanton missed more than 40 games this season due to injury — most of which was the result of a hamstring issue that landed him on the disabled list. In 2012, he underwent knee surgery to remove loose bodies — a procedure that cost him a month of action. Stanton's raw power is arguably unmatched, but his total of games played has declined in each of the past two seasons. Assuming he plays all three games this weekend, he will have averaged 130 games per season from 2011-13.

If they decide to pursue an extension, one way the Marlins could increase Stanton's interest in remaining with the organization would be to bring in the fences, according to Frisaro. The slugger recently told Frisaro he thought Marlins Park cost him multiple home runs this season, adding: "I want the normal ones, too. Where I don’t have to crush it 500 feet all the time."

Frisaro notes that the team's payroll is likely to be around $37MM in 2014, which could make it difficult to supplement Stanton's bat with other solid hitters. However, the club currently has just $8.2MM committed to the 2014 payroll: $1.5MM to Jeff Mathis, $1.7MM to Greg Dobbs following yesterday's somewhat questionable extension, $4MM of Heath Bell's remaining salary and a $1MM option on Jacob Turner that is a lock to be exercised.

Steve Cishek, Ryan Webb, Logan Morrison, Mike Dunn, Justin Ruggiano and Chris Coghlan are eligible for arbitration in addition to Stanton. Even if all those players are retained and given raises, however, the team should have a bit of money to work with in free agency. One thing working in their favor is that the Marlins likely don't feel a need to spend heavily on starting pitching; Jose Fernandez, Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez each posted an ERA and FIP under 4.00, while Turner had a 3.74 ERA and 4.42 FIP.

Marlins, Greg Dobbs Agree To One-Year Extension

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10:18pm: Not only did Loria negotiate Dobbs' contract himself, Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest and general manager Michael Hill didn't even know the deal was being struck, Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.  Rodriguez thinks this just adds to the speculation that Beinfest and Hill (and possibly team president David Samson) will be fired.

9:41am: Dobbs will receive a one-year, $1.7MM extension, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The extension was actually agreed upon back in June, he adds (Twitter links).

9:04am: The Marlins are re-signing infielder/pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs for the 2014 season, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Dobbs, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, is currently wrapping up a two-year, $3MM deal with the Fish. According to Jackson, Dobbs said a deal was struck between his agent and owner Jeffrey Loria.

The 35-year-old Dobbs batted .229/.305/.301 with a pair of homers in 226 plate appearances for the FIsh this season. He's spent the past three seasons with Miami, posting an overall batting line of .267/.310/.366. Capable of playing both corner infield and corner outfield positions, Dobbs appeared almost exclusively at first base when he took the field this season, totaling 423 innings at the position but also making a brief, five-inning appearance in right field. Ultimate Zone Rating and The Fielding Bible both graded his first base defense as a positive.

A ten-year Major league veteran, Dobbs has also spent three seasons with the Mariners and four seasons with the Phillies.

NL East Rumors: Valdespin, Arroyo, Mets, Marlins

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The Mets reinstated infielder Jordany Valdespin to their 40-man roster after he completed his 50-game Biogenesis suspension, but it remains to be seen if he'll be brought back in 2014.  Mets GM Sandy Alderson said the team has not yet decided whether he will be brought to Spring Training and the front office will have discussions on the matter between then and now.  Interestingly, those conversations haven't gotten underway yet and when asked why, Alderson replied, "Maybe it's because Valdespin's future doesn't warrant convening a meeting."  Here's more out of the NL East..

  • One veteran talent evaluator told Mike Puma of the New York Post that it's a “no-brainer” the Mets will pursue Bronson Arroyo this winter.  Recently, Tim Dierkes profiled the pending free agent who says that he is chasing after a multi-year deal. 
  • Marlins special assistant Andre Dawson said owner Jeffrey Loria told him recently that he plans to acquire hitters with the priorities being third base, first base, and catcher, writes Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.  Of course, budget constraints could again prove to be limiting.  Marlins people believe the payroll will fall in the range of this season’s, which was $36MM before the Ricky Nolasco trade, but Loria hasn’t told the staff what the 2014 number will be and he has been known to change his mind.
  • Bob Ford of the Philadelphia Inquirer argues that the Phillies should not re-sign Roy Halladay this offseason.  The Phillies got to evaluate the pitcher again at the end of the season but GM Ruben Amaro says that he may not be fully healthy until the spring.

NL East Notes: Braves, Amaro, Choo, Marlins

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The Braves officially clinched the NL East on Sunday, and MLB.com's Mark Bowman lists 10 reasons that they were able to take their first division title since 2005. Bowman credits the play of Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons, among others, but also takes the time to praise some of the under-the-radar moves made by GM Frank Wren this offseason. While the acquisition of both Upton brothers made the headlines (one of which obviously worked out better than the other), Wren also claimed Jordan Schafer and David Carpenter off waivers, inked Ramiro Pena to a small one-year deal, and acquired Jordan Walden for Tommy Hanson just hours before Hanson was to be non-tendered.

Here's more from the NL East…

  • Andy Martino of the New York Daily News asked Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. if the team's $170MM payroll, the presence of Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and numerous veterans under contract would prevent him from making big moves this winter, and Amaro replied with a simple, "Nope." Martino replied by asking if that meant Amaro was going to be his "usual creative self" and explore "crazy possibilities," and received another one-word answer in response: "Yep." Martino runs through some of Amaro's most recent blockbusters, including the Roy Halladay trade as well as two separate Cliff Lee trades and the signing of Lee as a free agent.
  • Shin-Soo Choo has been rumored to be atop the Mets' wishlist this offseason, and ESPN's Mark Simon runs down the pros and cons of the team's reported interest. Choo will likely be linked to draft pick compensation, as the Reds figure to make a qualifying offer, and Simon notes that it's not yet certain if the Mets will have a protected pick. New York, of course, missed out on Michael Bourn last offseason due to their unwillingness to part with a first-rounder.
  • Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest said on FM 104.3's Hochman and Zaslow Show that the rumors of his impending dismissal have begun to impact his family (h/t: Craig Davis of the Miami Sun-Sentinel). Beinfest reportedly confronted owner Jeffrey Loria recently asking for a firm answer on his job status.

Passan’s Latest: Marlins, Garza, Girardi

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Inspired by the O.co Coliseum's sewage problems, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports introduced the "Toilet Scale" to rate some postseason contenders "based on just how badly they're flushing their season."  Within the colorful piece, Passan also shared a few hot stove rumors…

  • Marlins team president David Samson, president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest and GM Michael Hill could all be fired in the club's latest shakeup.  Assistant GM Dan Jennings would take over as Miami's new general manager, and sources tell Passan that Jennings already has permission to begin assembling a staff.  Beinfest has been rumored to be danger, though Samson's job was previously thought to be safe.  As Passan notes, however, owner Jeffrey Loria was prepared to fire Beinfest and Hill last year before changing his mind.  Given how much influence Loria has over the team's decisions, "Who the hell would want to work there?" one Passan source rhetorically asked.
  • The Rangers front office was "pressured by ownership" into making the midseason deal for Matt Garza that hasn't worked out for the club.  Garza has a 4.56 ERA in 12 starts for Texas and can depart as a free agent this winter without any compensation coming back to the Rangers in return.  Of the prospects Texas sent to the Cubs in the Garza deal, "evaluators absolutely love" right-hander C.J. Edwards, who just recently turned 22 years old and posted a 1.86 ERA over 24 starts at both levels of A-ball this season.
  • It's been a tumultuous season for Joe Girardi, who Passan praises for keeping the Yankees in contention despite multiple major injuries, declining veterans and the Alex Rodriguez controversy.  This is the final year of Girardi's contract with the Yankees and one executive suggested to Passan that Girardi could find a lot less stress managing elsewhere in 2014.  We heard over the weekend that one Yankees official pegs Girardi's chances of staying in the Bronx at 70 percent.

East Notes: Yankees, Rays, Loria

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The impending retirements of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte mark the end of an era for which Yankees fans should be grateful, Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues. The Yankees have been over .500 for 21 straight seasons, and have gone to the playoffs in 17 of the last 18 seasons. Their success, however, came with "impossible standards," with former owner George Steinbrenner imposing a "championship-or-humiliation doctrine." The Yankees' enormous payrolls competitors help them, Sherman admits, but other franchises (the Phillies, Angels and Blue Jays, for example) have spent lots on payroll and had far less success. And the Yankees' superb homegrown core of Derek Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada has been an enormous part of the Yankees' winning ways, too. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • The Rays will likely try to address first base, left field, designated hitter and their bench this winter, writes the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin in a preview of the months to come. The Rays' decisions to pick up their 2014 options for middle infielders Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar will be "obvious," leaving the Rays set at those positions.
  • Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria isn't listening to president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest as much as he used to, because Beinfest isn't afraid to tell Loria when he doesn't like his player-acquisition ideas, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. As an example, Jackson says that when Beinfest recently recommended that the Marlins promote second baseman Derek Dietrich, Loria refused, because he was angry at Dietrich's accusations of abusive behavior by ex-hitting coach coach Tino Martinez. But then assistant GM Dan Jennings made the same suggestion about promoting Dietrich, and Loria relented.
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