Steve Adams
- Greetings! Sorry for the abnormal Thursday FO chat and the suddenness of it. Just being a bit proactive since I may have some conflicts arise tomorrow and I want to be sure I get this week's second FO chat in!This will be in lieu of the standard Friday afternoon chat -- sorry if that causes anyone to miss it, but hey, maybe we get some folks who can't make our usual Mon/Fri ones in here.
I'll get going at 3pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions in advance, as always. We should be back on our usual Mon/Fri schedule next week.
- Hello!
- Let's get going
Michael
- Why don’t the Yankees or other teams chose not to offer deferred money in contracts? Sure works for the Dodgers.
Steve Adams
- In short ... they do! I would say the majority of teams throughout the league have leveraged deferrals. Even the Ohtani deal, the most extreme example, was a framework that was amenable to both the Blue Jays and Giants. (Not the Angels, notably)This is largely off the cuff, but here's a quick rundown of some teams' notable deferred contracts over the years...
Blue Jays (Cease, Santander), D-backs (Burnes, Ketel Marte) Royals (Sal Perez), Mets (Lindor, Devin Williams, Manaea), Reds (Homer Bailey, Nick Castellanos), Nationals (basically like every FA they've ever signed), Orioles (Chris Davis), Brewers (Yelich), Rockies/Cardinals (Arenado), Red Sox (Sale, Devers)
- I'm 100% spacing on plenty of names, but deferrals are extremely common, even if the Yankees haven't gone down that road really.
walterj23
- Cubs are rumored to be in on Gallen . How does he fit in the rotation and is it a smart investment?
Steve Adams
- Not convinced Gallen is enough of an upgrade over their in-house options to justify the price tag. If the Cubs really want another rotation splash, they should just sign Framber Valdez, who fits them better anyhow with that huge ground-ball rate in front of that Chicago infield defense.
Brewers
- We win 97 games, the most in MLB and we trade our ace. How can people say it is the Dodgers are what is wrong with baseball with a straight face.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you had a good weekend! Chat swap this week since Steve wanted off for the holiday, he'll run Friday's instead
Clad in plaid
- Is it possible that Cleveland's lack of free agent activity is because they are concerned about a lockout next spring? And if that is the case, would they keep guys like Bazzana off the 40 man roster this year so they can get another year of development in the minors during a lockout? It seems risky to waste another year of Jose Ramirez. Can they compete for a playoff birth with the current roster?
Anthony Franco
- This is the usual offseason for Cleveland. They're not going to run payrolls that allow them to do much in free agency
- Bazzana should be up pretty early in the year, though I imagine they'd like to get him a little more Triple-A work first (ideally with an early look at Brito there). They're a viable playoff team again for me but that's more about everyone in the AL Central remaining content to be the worst division in baseball for like the 15th straight season
Tough Times In Anaheim
- Jo Adell (2 years of control) and Reid Detmers (3 years of control) for Noah Cameron (5 years of control). Who says no?
Anthony Franco
- This is the rare chat proposal that I think is skewed in favor of the team that you're not a fan of
- I get the logic on both sides but I'd want more than just Cameron in this framework if I were the Angels. He's cheaper but not convinced he's a dramatically better starter than Detmers in 2026
Youkyluptus
- Is the Red Sox rotation top 5 in the sport? Who’s i n that t ier?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I'd have them top five, probably top three. Dodgers probably most talented but obviously plenty of injury questions with them. Cincinnati's in there, Pittsburgh's has a crazy high ceiling but it requires a lot of projection on Ashcraft/Chandler to have them in that tier already
- Obviously Seattle would be a pretty popular pick for this and they are very good 1-5, depth behind that just isn't great. Toronto's really well positioned if you assume Bieber's healthy
Dan S.
- Thinking 2/40 or 3/60 with an opt-out for Gallen?
Anthony Franco
- I'd lean two in the mid-40s probably but neither of these outcomes would surprise me
- Assuming you're also putting an opt-out in the 2/40 deal. Can't see him taking a straight two-year contract
What a Mets
- Does it make sense for the Mets to offer Bellinger a Bichette-type deal- substantial overpay, but short commitment? If so, chances he accepts say 3/126 vs 5/160 from Yankees?
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Mark P
- Hello, Weekend Chat chatters! We’ll open up the question bag in a minute, so get your comments in…
Brett
- Freddy Peralta for River Ryan and Eduardo Quintero. Who says no?
Mark P
- Brewers, without hesitation
Jed Hoyer
- Matt Shaw to St. Louis for Brendan Donovan. Who says no?
Mark P
- The Cubs, since I think they value Shaw more highly than two years of Donovan. Also, the chances of a Chicago/St. Louis trade of this magnitude are very, very low.
Preller
- Am I going to surprise people with a free agent strike? Maybe framber with opt outs?
Mark P
- This seems like a possibility, but then again, it seemed like Suarez was perhaps heading into short-term/opt-out territory until he landed that deal from Boston that beat expectations.
Yankees
- What was it about the Yankees that they didn’t make an all-out push to sign Imai?
Mark P
- They just didn’t value him that highly? Probably just as simple as that.
Dan S.
- Most likely to move: Peralta, Gore, Lodolo or Bubic?
Mark P
- Just my two cents, but from most to least, I’d rank them Bubic, Peralta, Gore, Lodolo.
The Reds’ rotation is such their bread-and-butter that I don’t see them moving any of their big three. Gore is probably staying put this offseason, but the trade deadline could be a different story.
Jagger
- Do you think the Reds trade Brady Singer? he’s only under contract for 1 more season before hitting FA. I would think the Reds would like to get something in return for him.
Mark P
- He has long seemed like the most logical Reds starter to be on the move, but no deal to date. Doesn’t mean a trade couldn’t still happen in the next few weeks, but it’d be interesting to see what kind of significant bat (if any) the Reds could acquire for one season of a solid starter but one who probably projects as a back-end starter on a good team
- In general, Singer isn’t the type of pitcher who’s a lock to start a playoff game. Teams are only willing to give up so much for such a player.
Cj james
- Braves are unlucky again with Kim. They will have to get someone else right
Mark P
- Not necessarily, since Dubon can fill in on a temporary basis. Kim’s recovery timeline of 4-5 months is broad enough that if he’s “only” going to be out until mid-May, Atlanta might just roll with Dubon until then at shortstop. But, the Braves will likely pick up a veteran backup infielder type heading into spring training
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you're all well!
- Interesting week, let's get rolling
LFGM
- Head spinning! Lost Tucker, got Bichette all in the course of a day. I don’t think the Mets should trade Baty, if Bichette opts out after year 1 you have no 3B, so two questions, how do the Mets work out 1B, LF & DH if they keep Baty. Do you think Vientos, or Mauricio have the value combined with lesser prospects to get the SP the Mets need/want? Maybe Freddy Peralta?
Sam
- Brett Baty on the move?
Lance
- Mets have a roster full of middle infielders and at least 1 poor fielding outfielder, how do you see that shaking out?
Anthony Franco
- A handful of the many Mets questions in here
- I don't think Vientos (or certainly not Mauricio) has the juice to headline a Peralta deal, but it does feel to me that he's getting traded. Seems likelier than Baty, who offers more positional value as a capable defender at second/third (and presumably first)
- Seems like the Mets balked at a Vientos/Robert framework at the deadline but I wonder if that's more workable now if Sox eat a chunk of the money or include a reliever other than Grant Taylor in there
Dave
- How much of this "rush" from a few well-funded teams to spend large sums for short-term contracts is because of the expectation that the impending lockout will force a salary cap into place?
Philly A's
- Are the shorter term but higher AVV contracts because of the possible strike?
Anthony Franco
- I don't think that has much to do with it. Just seems like we had a couple huge spenders that didn't want to go long-term on very good but flawed hitters at the top of the class
- Obviously if you're not keen on committing seven or eight years to either of these guys, you need to compensate by juicing the AAV. Mets had a ton of short-term spending room compared to last season and were running out of players on which they could use it after missing on Tucker
Stott Through The Heart And You're To Blame
- Three years for Realmuto means that Dombrowski is planning on retiring after 2 and letting someone else clean up the mess?
Anthony Franco
- Haha if that were the case, why balk at going to three years in November?
- I'm a little surprised they caved but credit to JTR and his camp for waiting it out. Seemed like Bichette was the last other player for which they were prepared to spend and once he chose elsewhere, they said "screw it, let's get Realmuto done"
Justin
- how do the Tucker and Bichette deals impact Cody Bellinger?
Anthony Franco
- Mets could still accommodate Belli, I guess, but that feels less likely now. Beyond that, not sure it matters much. Dodgers never felt likely there and Yankees never seemed to be in on Tucker. My guess is they get the Yankees to cave on the sixth year and wrap it up
Shatkins
- Did aaron judge just become the most underpaid player in the game (besides arb controlled assets)
Anthony Franco
- It's Ohtani for me but Judge is second. That deal felt like a win for the Yanks at the time and obviously looks dramatically better with where salaries at the top of the market have gone since
Soooo
- What’s next for Boston? I feel like they still need a bat, but I hate to see them lose Early or Tolle. Does some combination of Harrison and Crawford (plus others) get them Paredes?
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Happy Tuesday! I’ll get going at 1pm CT, give or take a couple minutes. As always, feel free to submit some questions ahead of time. I’ll take a mix of preloaded ones and live ones after we begin!
- Greetings! Apparently someone re-lit the stove.
Toronto Mike
- Reports state that Bo is seeking 300 million. Do you see him getting this kind of money?
Steve Adams
- No, I don’t, but if the real goal is something like $250MM, then of course you say you’re looking closer to 300.I still think it’s probably somewhere in the 225 range, but we’ll see.
Jagger
- Do you think Colin Rea gets traded to a club that needs pitching now that he is on the outside of the Cubs rotation?
Steve Adams
- Rea signed as a free agent, meaning he can’t be traded without his consent until June 15. This is his second straight one-year deal with the Cubs, and he’s a midwest guy who wants to be in the midwest. He’s not getting traded. He’ll be in a swing role, which is surely fine with him. He’s used to it. And with injuries, he’ll probably still start 10+ games (as long as he remains healthy himself)
Nolan Arenado
- Assuming St Louis can’t trade me, why not take a page from the Angels book and defer the remaining contract over 3 or 4 years and cut me loose?
Steve Adams
- One of the very earliest questions from this morning, ha. What a difference a few hours makes!
brewers fan
- Thoughts on the Nolan arenado trade?
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going around 3pm CT, give or take a couple minutes. Feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always! Looking forward to another chat.
- Hello! Let's get underway!
Rangers13
- With the Soderstrom extension as a comp, what would a Wyatt Langford extension look like?
Steve Adams
- Both 24-year-old OFs with 2+ years of service and four to go until free agency. I would think a Langfor deal looks relatively similar, though I can see his camp pushing for a bit more since he'd likely have had a larger starting point in arbitration; he's been a productive all-around hitter for two seasons now, while Soderstrom took a few to get there and thus had a weaker pre-arb platform. I don't think the gap should be immense, though.
Guards4Life
- Noah Cameron or Cade Horton. Who are you building a rotation around?
Steve Adams
- I suppose it depends on the context of the rest of this mystery new team I'm starting, haha. What's my payroll?! :)I would take Horton over Cameron in a bubble. I think he has a higher ceiling based on the stuff, but Cameron probably has better command and a higher floor. If you told me: "One of these two is going to be a rock solid No. 4 starter for the next four to five years and the other will end up in the bullpen," I would assume it's Cameron the SP and Horton in the 'pen.
That said, I also think Horton has the better chance at pitching like a true No. 2-3 starter over a longer period. I'd probably go with him, but if you preferred a more certain, bankable source of innings and felt Cameron was the preferable route, it's defensible enough.
Brewers Fan
- Last night Mark said even after the Cabrera and Bregman deals he's not sure he'd pick the Cubs over the Brewers. You agree? Think the brewers need to make a move to keep pace or are okay standing pat?
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MLBTR Live Chat
Mark P
- The Weekend Chat has been launched! Let’s open up the queue to see what’s what…
Charkip
- Who says no, Jordan Lawlar to the Guardians and Chase DeLauter to the DBacks
Mark P
- Probably both teams, but Cleveland moreso.
Tigers Fan
- Why haven’t we heard any talk about the Tigers trying to extend Casey Mize?
Mark P
- It could be that these talks are happening and both sides are staying quiet, but Mize is something of a tricky player to evaluate for extension purposes. He’s only had a couple of (mostly) healthy seasons and pitched well, but not necessarily front-of-the-rotation well.
I’m sure Mize feels like he can hit another level, and hitting that level in 2026 lines him up nicely in free agency next winter. So he might not want to lock himself down to an extension now.
Guest
- Bellinger will get more or less than Bregman?
Mark P
- I probably shouldn’t doubt Boras’ ability to work his magic, but I think it’ll be less
Squints
- As a Brewers fan, is there any rebuttal to the Cubs recent moves?
Mark P
- The Brewers aren’t ever going to outspend the Cubs, but that hasn’t stopped Milwaukee from beating them in the past. I’m not sure I’d necessarily even pick Chicago for first in the Central right now.
Scott S
- What type of package should the Brewers receive from a Freddy Peralta trade? Which teams seem to be most interested?
Mark P
- Peralta is so inexpensive that pretty much any contender in the league would or should want him.
The most popular comp for a Peralta trade package is the Corbin Burnes package: a MLB-ready position player, an MLB-ready pitcher, and a draft pick (or another minor leaguer, if the Brewers are dealing with a team that doesn’t have a tradeable Competitive Balance Pick).
- Given how Peralta is also making a little more than half of Burnes’ salary in his final arb-eligible season, the Brewers may well ask for more in a trade return.
Bregman
- Think the Cubs will do the Red Sox a solid and trade Hoerner to Boston?
Mark P
- The Bregman signing makes a Nico trade slightly more likely, but if I’m the Cubs, I keep everyone for the sake of depth. Injuries are inevitable, and there are worse ideas than having Moises/Shaw/Alcantara as the all-younger bench core.
I got friends in Lowe places
- Any thoughts on where Nathanial Lowe lands?
hiflew
- Any rumblings about the Rockies plans at 1B? Is the plan to hope for Charlie Condon to win the job in the spring? They only have Blaine Crim otherwise.
Mark P
- Hey, two questions in one fell swoop! Lowe’s list of potential landing spots is pretty thin, but a one-year deal in Colorado seems like as decent a spot as any. Condon has only 55 Double-A games under his belt, so an Opening Day job seems a little unlikely. The Rockies should be as patient as possible with Condon.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week! Steve's off today and it's been pretty busy so I'll probably have to keep this one around an hour
Pudge
- What is Detroit thinking?? Vladdy's final year of Arb was 28Mil. 30 is closer than 19.
Anthony Franco
- Covered this in more detail in the Skubal writeup itself but the $19M is way closer to the precedent we've seen for starting pitchers than $32M -- both in terms of max value and raise relative to the previous season
- Skubal's trying to get a $22M raise, which is unheard of in arbitration. I understand why he's trying to do this -- both in terms of wanting to be valued as a top five player in MLB, which he is -- and to break the ceiling that arbitrators have put on starters
ThePhillyPope
- The Phils don't seem to be "in" on any starting pitching this off season. IMO the rotation after Sanchez & Luzardo is very suspect. Nola is average at best, Walker is worse, Painter is unproven, and we have zero idea how/if Wheeler will come back from his surgery. What are your thoughts?
Anthony Franco
- The budget isn't infinite and they were right to make Schwarber the priority. I'd still like to see them add a swingman (or give Keller a rotation opportunity, but it seems they closed the door on that right away) but I'm alright with the rotation for the moment
- If Painter continues to struggle and/or Wheeler comes back shaky, it becomes the priority at the deadline. I think they're talented enough both at the top end and in the lineup that they can give it a few months to see how things shake out
MetsFan
- Has your projection for Kyle Tucker changed since the beginning of the offseason? I know you guys originally predicted 400/11, curious if that's changed since he's still unsigned so close to spring training.
Anthony Franco
- I'd probably drop into the 350-375 range at this point. Tim Dierkes was there the whole time and deferred to Steve, Darragh and myself in agreeing to 400. Still would be surprised if we're looking at three or four with opt-outs though
jrizz1e
- does the diamond sports group news from yesterday put the market on any sort of hold?
Anthony Franco
- Doubt it matters much at the top end since it's mostly mid-market teams that are fighting the TV stuff. Could see it trickling down a little more to the mid-tier guys, though they're the ones who get the hit the hardest for remaining unsigned close to Spring Training anyway
- I wonder a little bit about the Angels though. They feel like they should've been involved on Suárez (Ranger and Geno, really), Gallen, etc. and a dark horse on Belli. This could be Arte Moreno's excuse to do essentially nothing
Kay
- Rob Manfred HAS to know that a free agency deadline is a non-starter, right??
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I can't imagine the PA's agreeing to that. Players resoundingly hate it
- It's just an opportunity for Manfred to frame it publicly as something he wants that'd be exciting for the sport, and I'm sure there are plenty of fans who agree with that, though his primary motivation (which he leaves unsaid) is cost suppression
Brian
- Is bellinger worth 30 million a year?
Anthony Franco
- For the Yankees or Mets on a four-year deal? Sure. For six or seven? Pass
Dana Brown
- Would Abreu and Blubaugh be enough for Cowser from Orioles?
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning, and happy New Year to all! I’ll get going around 1pm CT, give or take a couple minutes. Feel free to send in questions ahead of time if you’re so inclined. Looking forward to it!
- Greetings!
- Happy New Year
- Let’s get going
Michael Young is my goat
- Am I delusional in thinking signing Verlander, Coulombe, and Hoskins would both fit the Rangers budget as well as round out the roster in decent fashion. I view them needing a middle of the rotation guy, a leverage arm(some liberties here), and a part time RH bat who can dh and/or play a corner spot. Seems fairly realistic to me, assuming Verlander doesn’t want to specially go back to Detroit or Houston.
Steve Adams
- We don’t have a great sense of the Rangers’ stopping point for their budget, but they’ve watched several guys who were good contributors in 2025 — Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong — sign pretty cheap one-year deals elsewhere, which doesn’t seem to bode well for them having the money to sign the guys you listed.I’m also not sure they’d see a big enough gap between Hoskins and Burger. Also imagine you’re probably underselling what Verlander can/will command on a one-year deal once he signs.
- Tl;dr … I think that’s probably a more expensive slate of names than they sign. On an individual level, sure, I can see them bringing Coulombe back.
In Suspenders
- Are my Giants going to “show the money”?
Steve Adams
- I think they’re of the mindset that they “showed the money” when they acquired Devers, signed Adames and extended Chapman.Their offseason has been wildly underwhelming to date, but they’ve repeatedly signaled that they don’t think they’ll be going particularly long-term on any prominent free agents.
Would still love to see them grab Tucker or Bichette, but nothing they’ve done to this point suggests to me that they’re going to stretch to those levels.
The Real Steve Adams
- Cijnte and Montes for Donovan, who says no?
Steve Adams
- I think both is too steep for the Mariners to pay. Have a hard time seeing the Cardinals turn that down.
Douggy18
- Why has Jonah Heim gotten no attention? Has he fallen off that badly?
Steve Adams
- He’s been terrible for two seasons and is probably the third- or fourth-best catcher on the market at the moment. Have to imagine he’s waiting on Realmuto and Caratini to sign.Heim probably gets a big league deal, but if you told me he had to settle for a minor league contract/NRI, I wouldn’t be stunned. He’s batted .217/.269/.334 over his past 925 MLB plate appearances, and his once-elite defensive grades have cratered.
That’s not going to be a priority for any club.
Bucco Basement
- Boras gets blamed alot for allegedly leaking information about interested teams to drive up contract offers. How true are these accusations and how much do you think this kind of information unfairly gets fans’ hopes up that their team is actually in on FAs when they are not realistic destinations (thinking specifically of the Pirates’ connection to Okamoto and the ridiculous assertion that they are “in” on Bellinger)?
Steve Adams
- 90% of agents/agencies put things out to the media — it’s not a Boras-specific thing.
WandersLust
- As the off-season progresses and teams firm up depth charts, does a trade of Brendan Donovan or Ketel Marte become less likely?
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Happy 2026!
- Yeah, that's going to feel weird for awhile.
- I'll get going at 3pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always. Hope the holidays have treated everyone well thus far!
- Hello all! Sorry for the delay
- Lets get underway!
Bo Knows Okamoto
- Am I now the odd man out in Toronto?
Steve Adams
- It's more crowded, but no, I don't take the Okamoto signing as any kind of surefire sign he's gone, no. They still have Ernie Clement atop their depth chart at second base, and Clement is at best a glove-first, league-average hitter and more likely a glove-first utility player.There's plenty of space to get both Bichette and Okamoto near-regular playing time, especially since Okamoto could spend some time at first and/or DH, while Bichette could play some SS if Gimenez goes down with any sort of injury.
Chaim Bloom
- Im resigned to the fact that Ill need to absorb another team's bad contract in order to move Nolan Arenado. As long as the player attached to said contract is (A) playable in my outfield or (B) tradable, Im good with that. Right now I have the Angels and Jorge Soler is a good fit, and I think the Phillies might be willing to move Alec Bohm and let Nolan play third if I take Nick Castellanos. Both teams want me to throw in 5-10 million dollars because they know I'm slightly more desperate that they are...
Steve Adams
- I just don't think it makes sense for the Cardinals to take back another pricey veteran. Part of the thinking in dumping Arenado is opening time for younger players. Castellanos is every bit as untradeable. I suppose they could just release the player they take back.I think the Cardinals will eventually trade Arenado by just paying like $30MM+ of what's left on the contract, though.
Dave
- Would Tucker sign with LAD for 5 years $250 million with three opt out years?
Steve Adams
- The Dodgers are in the top penalty bracket for the luxury tax already, and that setup would cost them $55MM in taxes annually, plus Tucker's salary. If we distribute the 250 evenly over five years, it's $105MM per year. Even for the Dodgers, that seems steep
Guest
- Just letting you know I’m accessing this while beta testing the app. App looks great!
Steve Adams
- Love it! Thanks for helping out!
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