MLBTR Chats

Guest

• Dustin May & Beuhler to the Padres for 3 million apiece?

Steve Adams

• I’m pretty much out on both pitchers, but that’s the sort of move the Padres probably have to make. $3MM might be light, especially on May (although honestly, I’m not sure I’d even give him that if it were my call).

Joshua

• Passan floated the idea of the Nats dealing MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams in the same deal. I think this would make a TON of sense for a team like the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, etc. Virtually any team that is close and could use Abrams at 2B. Using the Dodgers as a template, what could this deal look like?

Steve Adams

• Saw that. Also saw he said it’s “not quite Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from 2021” referring to the Dodgers trade, but I don’t agree with that. Max was a rental. Turner had 1.5 expensive years left. Gore has two years. Abrams has three. Price should very arguably be significantly higher than what the Dodgers gave up for Max/Trea (which was then-top-100 prospects Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz, plus a couple of middle/lower-tier guys further down the org ladder)
• Gore alone should command close to a pair of top-100 prospects. I don’t find him any less desirable than Garrett Crochet a year ago, and he landed a four-player package headlined by Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery (both top-100 names).
• If you’re trying to peddle Gore/Abrams in a combo deal on the Dodgers, you’ve got to be looking at two of De Paula, Freeland, Hope, Sirota, etc. at the very least, plus significant value beyond that. It should take a massive haul.

Adam Steves

• Senga for Fairbanks. Who says no?

Steve Adams

• Fairbanks is a free agent

Erik Gonzalez

• True or false: Cleveland can trade Kwan AND have a better offense in 2026

Steve Adams

• True, but being a better overall team probably require them spending money, which is a hard sell for Cleveland ownership. You could potentially get a young MLB-ready OF back in the deal though, and given that Kwan was only a league-average hitter last season, it’s not crazy to think the new OF would provide more offense. But I doubt said new OF would also post top-of-the-scale defensive work and plus baserunning.

Willie Monteanez

• With the Braves success with swing guys like Reynaldo Lopez and Grant Holmes and past interest in Jeff Hoffman. Do you think they’ll be in on similar profile guys like Brad Keller, Luke Weaver, and Nick Martinez this offseason?

Steve Adams

• I picked Keller to go there in part based on that history and in part because the Braves love nothing more than loading up on Georgia natives, ha.

Trade Proposal

• Mitch Keller for Jarren Duran. Who says no?

Steve Adams

• Keller is good but not worth Duran

PhilsPhansince1965

• Are you as skeptical about Murakami being worth what he will be paid as I am? Too many question marks despite the 80 grade power potential.

Steve Adams

• Sure. He might be like … Miguel Sano.He might also be a 26-year-old Schwarber-esque bat with a bit more defensive utility if he can play a passable 1B.

  For a big-market team, that’s worth the risk. I’m enough of a believer in the power that I’m probably on the more bullish side from where you seem to be. If I were running the show somewhere and bidding climbed north of $200MM,  I’d probably tap out, but it all depends on how much financial support you can expect from ownership in the near future.

Brewers Oz

• Shota seems like an obvious candidate to take the QO… you predict 3/45.If he takes the QO then that means, he just needs 2/23 without a QO hanging over his head.

  Thoughts?

Steve Adams

• Pitchers get hurt all the time and the trend lines on him are down. If he can lock in 3/45 right now, a lot of people would consider that better than accepting and trying again.Tyler Anderson rejected a $19.65MM QO to sign for 3/40.

Guest

• Any sense that Jeremy Pena could be available in talks with Correa and Paredes both being present?

Steve Adams

• I talked about this on a podcast maybe 5-6 weeks ago, kind of tongue-in-cheek and with a “this won’t happen but hey let’s talk about it” possibility. I’d be stunned, but a year ago I would’ve been stunned to see Kyle Tucker traded.Moving Pena would be nuts, but the return would be exorbitant. And Astros owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to pay the luxury tax in the past, so I wonder about their appetite for signing a meaningful SP/OF in free agency. And Pena is a Boras client with two years left, so he’s not going to sign an extension.

  Again, I would be genuinely shocked, but after last winter’s Tucker saga, I think it’s worth keeping in mind as like a “less than 3% chance this happens but it’s not COMPLETELY impossible to see” scenario.

Arizona

• Last night Arizona cut a player who had some bullpen upside before getting hurt as a rookie. The control they had over CMDO was valuable. Do you think this portends a Gallen QO accept?

Steve Adams

• No. I think you’re reading way too much into it. Montes De Oca had back surgery. There’s no 60-day injured list in the offseason. They knew he wouldn’t be claimed on waivers coming off the surgery (or at least felt strongly that he’d clear) and they can retain him without giving him a 40-man spot all winter if they pass him through waivers.
• With the deadline to protect guys from the Rule 5 looming this afternoon, his outright was surely about that and unrelated to Gallen, who feels very likely (to me) to reject his QO today

AstrosFAN

• Could Bryan Abreu be available at 2026 deadline?

Steve Adams

• If Houston’s out of the playoff picture or on the fringes, sure. He’s a free agent next winte.r

Chris

• Donovan to Yanks. What would a pitching return look like? Warren or Gil plus one of their top 5 pitch prospects? Good luck today!

Steve Adams

• Warren + a 50 FV pitching prospect (Ben Hess, Bryce Cunningham, etc) doesn’t feel crazy to me. Might to the Yankees — but I’m probably not as high on Warren as some. (Not that I think he’s bad or anything, to be clear)

Sam

• Royce Lewis has expressed overwhelming optimism about the team’s outlook with Shelton’s hiring, a 180 of what Twins’ fans currently feel. Do you have any optimism about this winter for the Twins, Steve?

Steve Adams

• I have minimal faith that the Pohlad family will actually greenlight real spending. But the Twins are going to be something like $40-55MM shy of their Opening Day payroll from 2025 after the non-tender deadline passes … if ownership says “Hey, you can spend back up to that level again”, then yeah, it could be a fun offseason and a fun 2026.But… I’ve lived in Minnesota for 35-36 of my 40 years on this planet and have little to no faith the Pohlads will do that, ha.

Kyle Crockett

• The Reds WILL sign a big bat this off season

Steve Adams

• Sign or acquire, I agree. Almost picked them to sign Pete Alonso. I think he’s totally viable

Guest

• Pittsburgh in the running for Naylor and Schwarber?! Could Alonso be in their sights?

Steve Adams

• I think Alonso’s going to cost less than Schwarber
• I also imagine the Pirates probably prefer left-handed power, since PNC Park is where righty power goes to die. Ben Cherington has even referenced this in the past. Doesn’t completely eliminate the possibility of going for a righty power bat like Alonso, Eugenio Suarez, etc. — but I think lefties generally make a bit more sense.

Dan

• Mountcastle: does anyone trade for him as maybe the biggest change-of-scenery guy available, or is this a clear non-tender case?

Steve Adams

• I think he’s non-tendered. At his best, he’s been like a 1.5 to 2 WAR guy. And he’s coming off a terrible, injury-ruined season now.
• The Rays couldn’t find someone who wanted to commit $11MM to Pete Fairbanks on day one of the offseason. Teams are pretty reluctant to commit early dollars to fringe roster guys like this. I think most feel they probably have a league minimum bat who can be at least reasonably projected to be within striking distance of Mountcastle’s production in  2026.

Skip Skip Schumaker

• Luis Arraez to Texas 3 years 50 million get it done?? Perfect leadoff in Texas.

Steve Adams

• I wouldn’t go anywhere near that contract if I were a team, but yeah, that’d get it done from Arraez’s standpoint

jd

• what would senga actually return in a trade. $15M per year is 5th starter money, not sure why Mets would just give him away

Steve Adams

• It’s better than fifth starter money, and the Mets are paying a 110% tax because of the luxury obligations there, so he’s costing them more like $31.5MM per year. They clearly lost faith in him down the stretch.I don’t think he’s teeming with surplus value or anything, but if they could clear the contract and add even a middle-tier prospect, they might just prefer to be done and open the roster/rotation spot (and payroll space) for other more certain pursuits.

International Players 2025

• Who gets the most money in what order? Any surprise team get any signings?

Steve Adams

• Our Top 50 list is based on earning power/expected contracts:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/2025-26-top-50-mlb-free-agents-…
• If the Pirates are serious about going after Naylor/Schwarber, then I don’t see any huge reason they couldn’t pursue a Murakami or Okamoto. They don’t really have much of a foothold in NPB, but every team has to take a first step in that regard at some point (and they’ve spent more modestly on KBO talent in the past)

jd

• how is $15M better than 5th starter money (for a playoff team) . He makes less money than montas

Steve Adams

• That terrible Montas contract shouldn’t be a barometer — and the Mets paid him hoping he’d be more than a No. 5. Michael Lorenzen, Colin Rea, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and plenty more have all signed at $10MM or less on playoff hopefuls in recent years.Plus it’s not 1/15. It’s two years and $28MM remaining. Even contending clubs aren’t giving out 2/28 to someone they hope is their fifth starter.

Baseball fan

• Who are the 3 most likely to accept the QO?

Steve Adams

• Gleyber and Imanaga are the only ones for me who really feel like they should even consider it (though as I referenced earlier, I think Imanaga can do decently on a three-year deal … it’s just a question of if he considers something like 42-45 over three preferable to 22 over one. Some guys will, some guys won’t).I can see why some would think Grisham or Woodruff should accept, but I think they should both reject without too much fretting.

Richard

• Morning, could the Ms still be in play for Murakami? Do you see him sticking at 3rd?

Steve Adams

• I’d be surprised. Could still go after him if they just want him and Naylor to share 1B/DH long-term though.

Big Bob

• The Reds trade for Ward or Greene?

Steve Adams

• Is this trade FOR Riley Greene? If so, no, I can’t see Greene being available.
  I also can’t see them trading Hunter Greene.As I continue to say weekly, I’m going to keep putting Brady Singer-for-Taylor Ward out there until it becomes reality, ha. Works well for both clubs.

who’s on 1st

• Arozarena’s arb # really suprised me. with Sea’s overcrowded OF, would a Randy for Alex B work for both teams. I know some are down on Bohm but he does provide some reasonable production at 3B. and will be cheaper than randy.

Steve Adams

• I can see Seattle listening on Arozarena, but he’s way better than Bohm. No chance I move Randy for him. Bohm is borderline to even be tendered a contract, for me.

Ken

• could or would A’s make Soderstrom available? If yes, they could get a haul of young pitching

Steve Adams

• They absolutely could get a big haul of quality young pitching. I’m of the mindset that Soderstrom is too good and they should be trying to extend him to build around him, Kurtz, Butler, Wilson, Langeliers and Rooker. That lineup is awesome.Getting pitchers to go to Sutter Health is going to be hard, but I’d be looking at trading from the farm or overpaying Severino style before trading Soderstrom.

  My colleague Anthony Franco thinks they should be listening on Soderstrom, for what it’s worth. (He also thinks Soderstrom is great — just feels similarly to you, perhaps, that he’s a movable chip to bring in the type of arms the A’s badly need)

Kodai Senga

• When I first signed with the Mets in 2023, it was widely reported that I had an opt-out after year 3 (2025). What happened to that, and even though I was a mess the second half of 2025, wouldn’t it still make sense for me to opt-out if I had the option? $14 million a year is cheap for someone with my potential, even though I’m an enigma wrapped up in a riddle.

Steve Adams

• The opt-out was conditional on him pitching a combined 400 innings in his first three seasons. Losing all of 2024 and a big portion of 2025 wiped that out. He only has 285 career IP in the majors.

Joshua

• Sodertstrom for MacKenzie Gore and Luis Garcia….who says no (and if it is a no, is this at least close?). Thanks.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it’s close, no. Garcia is another non-tender candidate, and Gore has less control than Soderstrom. It doesn’t work for the A’s. (Obviously, for the Nats, they’d be all over this)

AL Central Casting

• What level of prospect or MLB-ready player could the Twins reasonably expect in a Joe Ryan trade? They could use a C or 1B – would Soderstrom be a good target? Could they get Rushing or Eldridge? Henry Ford?

Steve Adams

• I think any of Bryce Eldridge, Tyler Soderstrom, Dalton Rushing or Harry Ford could/should be in play as a possible headliner if they’re going to move Ryan.The Twins are pretty deep in corner OF prospects, particularly left-handed ones (Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Hendry Mendez), so maybe Soderstrom’s not the best fit from a pure roster standpoint. Could play him at 1B, of course, but he was so good in left field last year.

  Generally though, yes, I think it’d take a headliner like that, plus at least one other top prospect.

Austin Hays

• Who is my next team and what is my next contract like?

Steve Adams

• I’d expect him signing another one-year deal in the $5-6MM range — though I guess something like the 2/13 the Royals gave Hunter Renfroe a few years back wouldn’t totally stun me.He’ll go to a team that’s not viewing him as a starter. Hays just increasingly feels like he’s going to be a Randal Grichuk type — sign a string of one-year deals around $4-7MM per season, depending on the quality of his prior platform. Guards, Giants, Royals, Pirates, Rox all really struggled against LHP last year. Any team with a LHH corner feels like a viable fit.

  Even Austin Hays himself can’t accurately tell you who his next team is right now. Nor could the GM/president of the team that’ll eventually sign him

Gob Bleuth

• Expecting the Jays to spend significantly more than last year after the deep, profitable playoff run?

Steve Adams

• I think the Jays will be one of the most active, biggest-spending teams of the offseason, yes

Chris

• What are the chances the Braves resign Kim or sign Bichette for SS?

Steve Adams

• Kim feels totally plausible. Bichette would shock me, if only because the Jays just haven’t gone anywhere near that financial stratosphere in something like 8 years under Anthopoulos.
• Not on a free agent, anyway
• Same goes for the top FA arms like Cease, Framber, etc.

Pete from LI

• Can the Mets release Montas, who will not play in 2026. To clear a spot on 40 man roster?

Steve Adams

• I don’t see why they wouldn’t.

Ang T

• who is the next top 50 free agent domino to fall? I think Edwin Diaz to the Mets

Steve Adams

• Unless Steve Cohen just decides he wants Diaz back at all costs, I don’t think they’re going to re-sign him at all. Paying $21-22MM per year for a reliever doesn’t feel like something a David Stearns-led front office is going to be excited about.
• Since I continue to get “How much do you think will [player] get in free agency” questions, I’ll remind everyone that our contract predictions for 50 free agents were published less than a week ago:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/2025-26-top-50-mlb-free-agents-…

Kenley

• Do you see any way I return to the Dodgers?

Steve Adams

• Feel like Kenley’s goal is just going to be “who’s going to give me the ninth inning and leave me there” — which doesn’t feel like a Dodgers thing to do.
• He’s 24 saves from 500, and if he can continue to be effective into his early 40s, it’s not completely out of the question that he could eventually push for 600. I don’t think that’s likely, but he posted a 2.59 ERA in 2025 and is at 2.99 over his past six seasons right now. Who’s to definitively say he can’t still be a semi-productive reliever at ages 41 and 42, and make things interesting?It’d be fun to see and isn’t entirely outlandish anyway

Ken

• Tyler O’Neill and a prospect for Mitch K? Wracking my brain for a MLB trade to match Mitch’s contract. Is this it?

Steve Adams

• O’Neill has negative value. Keller does not. Including TON in the trade gets the O’s further away from getting Keller.

FA Prediction Contest

• when is this being released? did i miss it?

Steve Adams

• The prediction contest went live awhile back. We promoted it regularly until it closed last Thursday:https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/enter-the-mlbtr-free-agent-pred…

  Sorry! Hopefully you’re back in there for next year’s!

Goat

• After learning about the Rangers shopping Adolis Garcia, who are some candidates to trade for him?

Steve Adams

• That the Rangers will shop Garcia has been readily apparent for a couple months now. There’s no way he’s back next year. Highlighted him and Jonah Heim on our Top 40 trade candidate list 2-3 weeks back:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/mlb-rumors-top-trade-candidates…Giants, Tigers, Guardians, Royals, Reds, Marlins all jump to mind as easy fits, but Texas might also just non-tender him.

lincekid

• if the Giants don’t want to give out long deals to pitchers, or forfeit draft picks to the next tier of pitchers, and I don’t want to rely on 40 year old pitchers, where does that leave them?

Steve Adams

• Trading Bryce Eldridge? Signing Cody Ponce out of the KBO? ….Lucas Giolito?

Ballyhooed Plausiblilities

• Could a player who is going to miss a full year of arbitration due to injury (tanner houck) be non-tendered and then sign a creative two year minor league deal with a major league option in the second year? Wondering due to the 40-man roster spot and CBT impacts

Steve Adams

• Can’t put a major league option on a minor league deal. If Houck is non-tendered, he’d probably just sign a one-year deal elsewhere. He only has 4+ years of service, so even on a one-year deal, his new team would control him through 2027 via arbitration.

Suarezes Prediction

• I predicted all three going to the D-Backs. Too much?

Steve Adams

• “It
• Augh
• “It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off for ’em”

JeDi Mind trick

• Do you think a Skubal trade actually happens? What could you see the Ms giving up to get this over the finish line?

Steve Adams

• As I’ve said and will continue to say, I’d put the odds of a Skubal trade at like 0.25%. (Not 25% — one-quarter of one percent)People will want to talk about it all offseason. It’s going to generate clicks and social media engagement and views on MLB Network, so the narrative won’t go away, but I think there is next to no chance he is traded.

KC Guy

• Do the Royals roll out Massey again at second base, or do you see them upgrading the position over the winter?

Steve Adams

• Upgrade

Royals

• With this being the 40 man protection deadline, do you see any big names getting DFA in the next few hours?  Big is relative, but like Jonathon India, Adolis Garcia, etc.

Steve Adams

• Yeah India and Garcia are clear non-tender candidates and could be DFA before then if the trade markets are dry and those teams want the 40-man spots for Rule 5 protections

Marc

• With the deadline to tender a contract two days after the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster for the Rule 5 draft, why doesn’t every team DFA planned non-tenders by today’s deadline rather than waiting two days and not being able to fill those roster spots with spots with trades? This has been happening  more each year, but at least a dozen likely nontenders remain by the second deadline. Sure, there may be a handful who get traded or sign a deal before Friday, but far more end up just being nontendered with the roster spot left open.

Steve Adams

• Some of those clubs are planning to fill those spots with free agents or trade acquisitions anyhow. If anyone has a prospect they’re sure will be taken (or feel there’s a decent chance will be taken), and minimal roster space beyond the non-tender candidates on the roster, then sure they’ll DFA a Jonathan India, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, etc.If you’re planning to add two big league starters, multiple relievers and an outfielder eventually anyhow, then it doesn’t really matter. If anything, you don’t want that 40-man spot occupied by someone you might have to DFA and lose via waivers anyhow; you run the risk that maybe he’d have gone unclaimed in the Rule 5 but another club just claims him post-DFA since they wouldn’t be required to carry him on the active roster all year.
• Alright, I’ve got  to wrap up for the week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you’d like to ask me more questions, mock my opinions and/or hurl insults my way.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) and our Agency Database, our GM Tracker and more.

  Thanks everyone!

Mitch

• Dodgers could pretty easily trade for  a Kwan loke player rather sign Tucker. I think that hype is there just because they are the Dodgers. They need to clean up 40 man space and have a ton of depth at the same positions in the minors

Steve Adams

• I’m sure they’ll look into both. Kwan would cost quite a bit in a trade, and I’d take Tucker over him in a heartbeat. But sure, if the Dodgers feel Tucker’s asking price is prohibitive, Steven Kwan is a nice alternative.

AJ

• over/under 2.5 years for OHearn?

Steve Adams

• We predicted two but were at three years for a long while. I don’t think three is out of the question, but my very fake and not at all off-the-cuff odds would be like 70% two years and 30% three years.

Action M’s

• Josh Naylor aside . I’m of the opinion the Mariners are in need of bullpen arms. Options, they could turn to in that area?

Steve Adams

• The Mariners haven’t spent much on bullpen arms under Jerry Dipoto — in part because they’re so good at finding quality contributors on the scrap heap. (Hey there, Gabe Speier)I don’t expect them to spend heavily on the ’pen. Guess they could re-sign Caleb Ferguson, but they already have Munoz, Brash, Speier, Bazardo, Vargas … it’s a strong group as is, and I’m curious to see what Hancock would do over a full year in the ’pen.

Cards

• Ive always thought teams should be more open to trading within their divisions. For example if the Cubs wanted Donovan, who cares the cards aren’t going to be good anytime soon and if you can get good prospects back it’s a win for both teams.

Steve Adams

• I don’t have a ton of insight other than to say I generally agree with this. Lots of clubs caught up in optics. I get that you don’t want to strengthen a division rival for years to come, but I still feel it’s a bit of a blind spot for a lot of clubs.

Donovan

• Do you think Brendan Donovan could hold down SS for the Braves? He and Gray would make amazing pickups and fill 2 huge needs for them.

Steve Adams

• I’ve wondered whether the Braves might consider this. I kind of like it as an out-of-the-box option for one year, given the lack of alternative options. It’s a leap of faith in a guy who hasn’t played there much, but there’s just not a ton out there and I think Donovan is probably athletic enough to make it work short-term if you give him an offseason and spring training to prepare. Worst case, he’s well below average and you move him into a utility role and plug Nick Allen’s glove back in there.

Doghouse Riley

• Have the Giants absolutely ruled out signing a FA pitcher like Suarez?

Steve Adams

• Ranger or Robert? I assume you mean Ranger.Greg Johnson downplaying the idea of a long-term deal doesn’t mean they won’t ultimately sign a pitcher for multiple years, or even to a semi-long-term pact. The Giants were putting out signals to their beat last year that they might not go wild with spending or anything, and then they signed Adames and traded for Devers.

  In the wake of Johnson’s comments, I don’t expect them to go long-term on a FA SP, but if something they deem the right opportunity presents itself, I’m sure they’ll consider it.

  Johnson making the comments he did feels different than, say, White Sox GM Chris Getz pretty strongly indicating last week that he doesn’t want to sign free agents for more than a year.

John Travolta

• What type of contract do you think Cedric Mullins will fetch?

Steve Adams

• I tried to push for Mullins on a two-year deal to get him to the back end of the list, but most of the rest of the staff was pretty set on him as a one-year guy in the $10-12MM range. He was awful after April, and the 30-30, 6-WAR season from 2021 feels like a clear outlier at this point.I like him to do a bit better than that, but whatever he signs, I don’t expect it to go beyond two years and don’t think it’ll have an especially high AAV.

JC

• Let’s say the Pirates flip Burrows and Keller for bats, also freeing up capital for a few years on Keller’s deal. Opening day rotation starts Skenes-Chandler-Ashcraft-Oviedo. Do you add a 5th starter (classic Cherington soft-tossing lefty) or give Hunter Barco a shot?

Steve Adams

• You’re forgetting Jared Jones as a potential entrant in that rotation. He’ll be more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery.But I still think if they traded Keller and Burrows both, then yes, they’d add a cheap one-year SP in February or so.

Charlesco

• Hello, can Murakami hit high speed pitches? I saw one stat but I do not believe is real.

Steve Adams

• He’s struggled greatly against fastballs north of 95 mph, but those are also quite rare in NPB, where the average heater is like 91 mph. Guys like Seiya Suzuki and Jung Hoo Lee also had some concerns about their ability to handle plus MLB velo, but they sorted it out as they became more accustomed to seeing it.Talked to an NL scout recently who said he’s more concerned with Murakami being able to adjust to better breaking stuff here than he is about his ability to adjust to fastballs, where he thinks Murakami will be fine after more exposure to said velo.

Mets fan

• Make me believe diaz and alonso will come back. If they do what else do we need plus a top level starter?

Steve Adams

• I don’t believe Alonso will be back. Diaz, maybe if Steve Cohen just swoops in and acts aggressively early on, but we’re already further into the offseason now than we were last time he re-signed with the Mets.I didn’t choose either to re-sign, but Diaz feels more plausible.

Jim

• A’s don’t get a PPI pick because Nick Kurtz spent 3 weeks in AAA. What about in future years if he finishes top 3 in MVP voting; do the A’s get a PPI pick then? Or are they out of luck because he debuted 3 weeks into the 2025 season?

Steve Adams

• They’d get a pick in that MVP scenario.

Oz

• If you are advising Alex Anthopoulos, do you urge him to make a big push to bring Raisel Iglesias back and, if so, what contract do you offer him in terms of years and money?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Iglesias, specifically, is a must-have. Generally, just adding some quality arms in the back of the ’pen seems wise, though. I have Iglesias at 2/25

PaulF

• Is Casas with Alonzo so far fetched? Gives two power bats , one from each side, and both can at least take field defensively. Current DH not so much. More outfield depth still a weapon if trade needed. And we still have money .

Steve Adams

• If the Red Sox signed Alonso, I’d expect them to trade Casas, but sure you could make it work if you just dump Yoshida.

James

• Will Rendon be released?

Steve Adams

• Wouldn’t surprise me.

Adell

• Do the Angels keep Adell and believe the breakout or sell high based on last year to add multiple pieces

Steve Adams

• I don’t know that you’re selling that high on Adell. He hit 36 homers, but he was terrible defensively and his OBP was under .300.He’s a useful player and I do think he could fetch them an arm to plug into the middle/back end of the rotation, but he’s not going to fetch them a major haul — at least not in my view. But hey, even a serviceable fourth starter with a few years of control would be big for the Angels, given their perennial need for pitching. And Adell’s defensive grades would surely tick up if he weren’t being forced to masquerade as a center fielder.

Johnny U

• do you feel the Reds bring in a 1B/DH or an OF as their big bat, via trade or signing?

Steve Adams

• I expect them to be open to it but think it could just as likely be in the OF — or that they could (should) add one of each

PhilsPhansince1965

• How much of the Tajuan Walker contract can we unload this winter if we take back a couple of nominal prospect types?

Steve Adams

• I think you could dump half to 60% for no return. They’re not going to get a good prospect even if they eat the whole thing, but if they absorb 75% or more, I suppose you could get the “nominal” prospect you’re referencing here.

POBO Paul

• Breslow says the Bosox are looking for a starting pitcher.  Would they hve any intereat in Mackenzie Gore?  What kind of return could we expect?

Steve Adams

• I’m sure the Red Sox do have interest, and I’ve said before that last year’s Crochet-to-Boston trade is a decent framework for what to expect re: Gore.

Adam

• True or False. The Reds have a top 5 rotation in all of baseball

Steve Adams

• Off the cuff, I think this is probably right. Greene-Abbott-Lodolo-Singer-Burns, with Petty/Lowder waiting in the wings. Tons of talent there.

AstrosFAN

• Could Christian Walker go back to the Diamondbacks?

Steve Adams

• I tried to kick around an Eduardo Rodriguez-for-Christian Walker framework but couldn’t get there. The D-backs need innings, too, and they have cheap 1B options in Locklear/Pavin Smith. Paying $20MM per year for another first baseman — even one they love — and reducing their rotation to basically Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson doesn’t seem prudent.Can’t count on E-Rod for a ton right now, but at least you can hope he gives you innings.

Benson DuBois

• Are the Pirates going to have a hard time dealing Keller?  There are good free agent options at 3 years/$54MM.  No need to trade a good bat for Keller if you can get a comparable talent on the open market.

Steve Adams

• Keller at 3/54 is solid value. It’s true there are pitchers like Merrill Kelly or Chris Bassitt who could be had on shorter deals, but they’d require larger AAVs and are already 37.If Keller were a free agent coming off this season (really his past several seasons) and heading to market ahead of his age-30 campaign, you’re not getting him for “only” three years. There’ not necessarily a ton of surplus value AAV-wise, but a durable 30-year-old midrotation arm is going to get four or five years.

Drive to left by Castellanos

• Any chance the Phils swap Casty to St. Louis for Arenado? Then flip Bohm to the Angels for Ward? Arenado has two years left, so that could appeal to the Cards.

Steve Adams

• Arenado’s contract is even less desirable than Castellanos’. And I’d rather have Taylor Ward than Alec Bohm.

Bregman or Tucker

• Who gets the higher aav?

Bailey Ober

• If Pablo and Joe are traded, what will become of me? I may as well get traded too then, right?

Steve Adams

• Eh, the Twins would be selling low enough that the return would be pretty negligible. And if you’re trading Lopez/Ryan, you need SOMEONE to pitch innings. I think they’d hang onto Ober. Could always move him in July if he’s bounced back (and/or if younger arms have jumped into the rotation mix)
• Fwiw, i am very much team Tucker in this poll, too.

MLP

• Iron Man Adams back on the mound again today, I see.  If the Cubs were to find a deal acceptable to Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki, how much of their final year salaries would they have to absorb to get a useful return?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think they’d need to eat money for either player, but both have full no-trade clauses.

Brian

• Do the Yankees prioritize Tucker or Bellinger? If Tucker, will that put Bellinger on the back burner until Tucker is signed? (I.e. just like waiting for Soto to sign before pivoting)

Steve Adams

• In general, I think Tucker feels likelier to sign earlier. Boras tends to be pretty comfortable waiting. They’re in a tough spot with Bellinger a little bit. If his market does pick up early, the Yanks could run into the same scenario they saw with Willy Adames last winter … interested, but unwilling to commit until they know how the bigger fish pans out. By the time Soto was off the board last winter, it was too late on Adames.

Tim

• Heard some early rumors Kazuma Okamoto wants to play for the Halos? You hearing any truth to that?

Steve Adams

• I don’t know anything about the Angels podcaster who reported that. I wouldn’t put much stock in it this early. Like most free agents, you can assume Okamoto’s priorities will be:1) Role (he’s not going to sign as a part-time player)
  2) Money
  3) Winning
  4) Location

  Maybe he became an Angels fan during Ohtani’s heyday there. But even still, if a contending club offers him its everyday 3B job at comparable or greater money to what the Angels put out, then that prior affinity for the Halos won’t matter much

LaTroy Hawkins

• Any chance I’m both the bullpen coach and opening day closer in Minnesota this year?

Steve Adams

• I endorse this.

Dan

• Harrison Bader makes too much sense for the O’s IMO.

Steve Adams

• Bader is a plus defensive OF who can hit a little bit and will at absolute max cost three years — two seems likelier. He fits/makes tons of sense for a lot of teams.

Gabe’s Gaffs

• What’s the over/under on the number of players the Marlins churn through with Kapler as the GM

Steve Adams

• Kapler isn’t running baseball operations. He’s the GM, but Peter Bendix is the president of baseball ops. Kapler is the No. 2 in that hierarchy

AA

• Who is DH for Atlanta next year?

Steve Adams

• I imagine after years of having a set DH, they’ll just rotate guys through the position this year

Cleveland

• I would say Cleveland makes the most sense for a Ketel Marte trade. Good farm, and he could hit in front of Jose, which has been a problem for years trying to find production there. They also have the farm to pull it off.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Arizona is trading Ketel Marte. Even if they did, I have a hard time seeing a low-payroll club like the Guards make that move when Travis Bazzana is so close to the majors and plays the same position.

Yoshida

• Is it possible that I end up just like Rusney Castillo and in AAA playing out my contract?

Steve Adams

• Rusney was sequestered in AAA because of the now-defunct rule that his contract didn’t count toward the Red Sox’ CBT bill unless they added him back. Yoshida’s 18MM AAV counts for the Sox no matter what they do with him.He might still end up playing in AAA, but if he does, it’ll be because he’s just not performing well enough to merit an MLB look

Derek Shelton

• What other former Twins greats will I bring onto my coaching staff?

Steve Adams

• Star Tribune reported this morning that the Twins want James Rowson as a bench coach

Djboy2898

• What would it cost the Giants to get trade for Brandon Lowe? Would trading Ramos for Mitch Keller or Pablo Lopez be enough

Steve Adams

• Ramos isn’t enough for either, especially Lopez
• Brandon Lowe … it’s one year at $11.5MM. Notable injury history, plenty of swing-and-miss. He has some value but it’s not through the roof or anything. Couple of 40 or 45 FV prospects

Jed

• Matt Shaw and a TOR starter or go outside the organization to fill 3rd base and go lesser in the rotation?

Steve Adams

• Latter scenario is likelier. I’m not personally huge on Matt Shaw after 2025. I don’t think it’s at all out of the question that he just puts it together in his second year, but there weren’t a ton of positives in his rookie campaign other than the plus DRS rating at 3B.I assume there are teams (probably including the Cubs) who are higher on Shaw than me, so in the very hypothetical scenario (which Cubs fans should not at all want), I’d be seeing what kind of SP I could get with Shaw as one of the headliners and then looking at 3B alternatives.

  I put the Cubs on Kazuma Okamoto on our Top 50 for this reason (and because I had a hard time placing Okamoto in general, ha)

Arte Moreno

• What’s a realistic return for Taylor Ward?

Steve Adams

• I will call for the Brady Singer/Taylor Ward trade until I’m blue in the face. Or until it happens. Or until one of them is traded for a different player

Tim

• Clase and Ortiz definite banned from baseball?

Steve Adams

• I don’t see how either comes back from this.

Vrmind

• Back to ATL: Baldwin just won ROY, they got Murphy coming off an injured/down year. How do you see that playing out? Just rotate the two through C/DH or start shopping Murph this off-season just to get rid of the contract?

Steve Adams

• Rotate them. They’d be selling low on Murphy. Having both gives them a nice C/DH tandem next year, protects against further health trouble for one or the other, and keeps open the possibility of eventually dealing Murphy when his value is higher.
• Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) and our Agency Database, and more.

  Thanks all!

Sox Fan

• Follow up to my original question:  With the Sox finally having a shot at the #1 pick this draft, can they trade it?

Mark P

• The only draft picks that can be traded are the Competitive Balance Round selections.

Dub

• Mark: Good evening. Are you bullish on the Marlins being a tad proactive on free agent spending?

Mark P

• They’ll spend a bit more than usual, but “a tad” is about the right description

Danny boy

• Would Tucker or bellinger be a bigger priority for the Yankees?

Mark P

• I actually think Bellinger’s a better fit for the Yankees’ particular needs since he can play 1B and CF. Plus, he’s less expensive than Tucker will be, and the Yankees already know Bellinger can handle playing in the Bronx

Dr. Mustard

• What noise do you see the A’s making this offseason? Not a total game changer but a bold move they could make.

Justin credible

• if your the GM of the A’s  how do you address the pitching staff?

Mark P

• Pitching is definitely the top need, and it’ll more than likely have to come through the trade market.  After the Severino fiasco, there will be several pitchers that simply won’t even consider the A’s as a free destination.

  btw, Severino being traded is another way for the A’s to fill another need, maybe to get a 2B/3B

Cubbies

• Any chance the Cubs go after Murakami to play 3rd?

Mark P

• Sure, I think there’s a possible fit there.

Smokin Joe

• Will the cards trade Donavan?

Wtf mate?

• Could Brendan Donovan bring back a mid-rotation pre-arb starter or MLB-ready mid rotation

Mark P

• Donovan appeals to so many teams that I think his price tag will be a bit higher than some expect.  He’s under team control for two years, so the Cardinals can hold out to see if they can land a more controllable type of pitcher.

  They could wait until the deadline if the right offers aren’t there this winter, but there’s no reason for a rebuilding team to hang onto Donovan too much longer

Guest

• How about the Giants trading for Brendon Donovan and Sonny Gray? They could take on all of the Gray’s contract and give up less prospects for Donovan. They need pitching and second base!

Mark P

• Gray’s tax number is so outsized that the Cardinals probably can’t close the door on a scenario like this.  But, moving one of their better trade chips just to save money isn’t a great look for a team that surely wants to bring in all the young talent they can

Guards4Life

• After today’s news, on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being worst, how screwed is the guardians offseason now?

Mark P

• 1 or a 2 at most?  I don’t think the Guardians were counting on Clase or Ortiz playing any role in their 2026 plans (or beyond)

Dodger Dave

• Mark, can you explain how Tony Gonsolim was DFA’d as opposed to non-tendered by LA? He would’ve been under team control through 2026. Why wouldn’t they have just non-tendered him?

Mark P

• You can’t non-tender a player until the actual non-tender deadline on November 21.  Before then, if you want to get rid of the player, you have to release him entirely or DFA him first.  I suspect the Dodgers went the DFA route to give them a little more time to find any potential trade partners.

Guest

• A serious question.  Why do managers wear watches in the dugout?

Mark P

• So they can theatrically toss the watch on the ground, then yell “hey ump, even a broken clock is right twice a day, and that’s still better than you!”

  Real answer: I dunno, they just like wearing watches?

68 Tigers

• Are the Tigers even in the Bichette, Bregman or Suarez sweepstakes?  They need to sign one of the top free agents to show the fan base a continued commitment to winning.  What are your thoughts??

Mark P

• They made a real push for Bregman last winter, so it’s not like the Tigers have shied away entirely from bigger contracts.  Any of that trio would fit very nicely on a Tigers team that badly needs right-handed hitting, and hitting in general

Thompson

• Do you see any teams interested in trading for Jonah Heim and/or Adolis Garcia before the tender deadline? If so, who are the fits for each?

Mark P

• Plenty of teams need catching, so Heim should have a market despite his struggles of the last couple of years.  Garcia might be the same but just because outfielders are more readily available, rival clubs might wait for Texas to non-tender him and take their chances on the free agent bidding

Guest

• Who says no Kurtz for burns

Mark P

• Athletics

Willy

• Are you ready for another year of speaking about the Angels trading Adell?

Mark P

• The tradition continues!

Bailey

• What does it mean that it was mentioned that I was mentioned to be talked about at the deadline last season? Clearly posey was looking at all options, but do they have bigger plans at the catching position?

Mark P

• Shayna Rubin used the words “briefly considered,” rather than even just “considered” or “discussed” or whatever team you want to use for a team thinking about a potential trade.

  In general, front offices are constantly thinking about probably 90 percent of the players on their roster as some degree of available in trade talks.  Bailey isn’t so untouchable that the Giants wouldn’t have had some internal talks about what a catching upgrade might require

Mr KLC

• Is there a chance Jeremy Pena could be on the trading block while his value is high, similar to what the Astros did with Kyle Tucker?

Mark P

• Pena is arb-controlled through 2027.  So if the Astros do eventually consider trading him, it wouldn’t be until next winter at the earliest.  (Assuming that the team is in contention at the deadline.)

Goodman | Tovar

• If DePodesta makes them available in trade discussions at the meetings… Who calls? What type of returns could they fetch?

Mark P

• Goodman is controlled for four years, and is coming off an All-Star season at the thin catching position.  He’d get a ton in return, and for a Rockies team that needs all the help it can get, a Goodman trade can’t be entirely ruled out.  Very unlikely, it “can’t be ruled out.”

  Tovar is owed $56.5MM, hasn’t shown that he can hit at the big league level, and his excellent glovework took a step backwards in 2025.  He’s another player Colorado isn’t going to trade, in part because if they did, they’d be selling low

Big Red Machine

• The Reds, a budding young team with a ton of potential in a very winnable division, are, again, playing it conservative on payroll (flat to last year). How much do you think the potential lock out in 2027 is going to play into contract signings this offseason?

Mark P

• It’ll be a big factor, no doubt.  Not that the Reds were too likely to break the bank on a big signing anyway, but some teams will surely be holding back on the spending in the hope that the next CBA will change the rules to some extent

Dugout Yoda

• Anyone getting in the Hall out of this group of eight?

Mark P

• It’ll ultimately depend on who is on the committee, since if it happens to be a lot of players/writers/execs sympathetic to a particular player, their chances will be greatly boosted.  For instance, if there’s an Atlanta-centric focus to the panel, Dale Murphy’s chances look a lot better.

  I find it hard to believe that Bonds and Clemens will draw enough support for induction since their last appearance on the ballot fell so flat.  Maybe I’m a little biased as a Blue Jays fan, but perhaps Delgado’s candidacy will be helped by how his stats measure so favorably against most of the other candidates.

Yankees

• They had the best offense in baseball despite a poor year from Volpe. I know Grisham is probably gone , but if they resign Bellinger and McMahon can be a 100 wRC+ hitter, aren’t they still projected to be a Top 5 offense?

Mark P

• That’s a big if on McMahon, who has never hit the 100 wRC+ mark in his entire career.  The Yankees’ offense hinges heavily on Rice continuing to hit, Stanton staying healthy and productive, Jazz being Jazz, Dominguez and Wells improving, and (most important of all) Judge continuing to be a generational hitter.  If Judge takes a step back to being just “very good,” that alone is a big hit to New York’s lineup.

Richard

• Bees??

Mark P

• Beads?!

Rob

• could you explain the bees beads thing please

Mark P

• It’s an old joke from the Arrested Development TV show.  I forget how it even got started a joke in these chats, and it has been a running bit for years now.

Ang T

• Rumors has it that the Mets don’t want to resign Pete unless he takes a hometown discount. Any truth to this?

Mark P

• I can see this, especially since it’s basically their same stance as last winter.

Richard

• do you really see the Ms making a run at Skubal? What would it take for the Ms to get him?

Mark P

• Seattle has enough pitching that Skubal wouldn’t seem to be a big priority.
• Also, if Detroit trades Skubal at all (which I kinda doubt), they’re probably not moving him to another top AL contender.

Skip

• Semien was not his best and still had a 3.3 WAR I could see a team wanting him from Texas.

Mark P

• He’s owed $72MM over the next three seasons, his bat has badly tailed off over the last two years to the point of being a below-average hitter in 2025, and he’s entering his age-35 season.

  Semien isn’t getting dealt unless Texas eats a major chunk of that contract, or takes on another big contract in return to balance out the money.

Billy Beane

• So 10 years from now will be watching “Moneyball 2: Peter Brand Returns” after his tenure in Colorado?

Mark P

• Jonah Hill still wants that Oscar, baby!

Adam

• Which teams should I be checking prospects for crazy trade ideas for Pablo and Joe? Twins fan

Mark P

• It’ll take a lot to get Ryan, so look for teams like particularly loaded farm systems.  Mets, Rays, Red Sox, and yes, the Dodgers could all be fits.  A team like Milwaukee could try something creative like trading for Ryan and then moving Peralta elsewhere.

  Lopez’s salary makes him a slightly tougher fit, but the Twins may have more urgency to move him in order to cut payroll.

Dodgerfan

• Will the dodgers bring back Miggy Ro, one of our postseason heroes?

Mark P

• Don’t see why the Dodgers wouldn’t be open to bringing back Rojas and Enrique Hernandez as reliable bench/clubhouse leaders.

Tyler

• Could the Pirates make trade like last year Ortiz/horwitz to acquire a hitter

Mark P

• They should make at least two trades like this to give their offense a proper shot in the arm

Guardians Fan

• They haven’t historically been connected with international free agents (or free agents other than Austin Hedges), but any chance the Guardians might be a fit for Okamoto with some payroll space this offseason?

Mark P

• He’s probably outside Cleveland’s price range. Okamoto also isn’t a great positional fit — Ramirez is obviously locked at 3B, and the Guardians probably want to see what they have in Manzardo/Kayfus

Ace of Braves

• What does a Corey Seager to the Braves trade look like?

Mark P

• Seager is owed $186MM through the 2031 season.  If he was a free agent this winter, I don’t see the Braves spending at that level to obtain him, in addition to what the Rangers would want in terms of prospects.

  Seager also has a partial no-trade clause, though it isn’t known what teams are on his no-go list (or how many teams are included)

Frog

• What could KC get in a trade for Mitchell?. He’s their number 2 prospect and a MLB top 100 at a premium position

Mark P

• These are excellent reasons why Mitchell won’t be traded, and why KC likely sees him as Salvy Perez’s successor

Chris Young

• Any idea to when I should announce my team’s full coaching staff?

Mark P

• Most teams don’t officially announce their coaching staffs until well into December, or even into January.  There was so much managerial tumult this offseason (including in Texas) that it might take even longer than usual for a lot of staffs to get finalized.  The Rockies don’t even have a manager yet.

Cards Fan

• Is KC making the same mistake the Cards did with Yadi giving Salvy legacy contracts in his declining years!

Mark P

• “Mistake” is a bit of a stretch.  Perez is still hitting lots of homers and is a major clubhouse voice, even if his overall offense is inconsistent and his defensive metrics have plummeted.  If they let Perez go, the Royals would then be putting more pressure on Mitchell and Jensen to step into a regular catching role right now.
• I don’t think it hurts KC to retain a guy who’s still a useful player and a franchise icon.  The two-year length of the contract probably acts as the unofficial end date of Perez’s career, too.

Sad Reds Fan

• If they actually trade Hunter Greene I rage quit forever

Mark P

• I kinda doubt they’ll move him, of all pitchers, since Greene has shown he can be a frontline guy.

Motor City Beach Bum

• If the Mets mak a crazy offer for Skubal, like MacLean, Tong, Jett and Baty should the Tigers do it?

Mark P

• Sure, that’s the kind of Godfather offer the Tigers would require to actually move Skubal.  But that’s also not something New York would offer for one year of a pitcher who seems very likely to test free agency next winter.

Kyle

• Could you see the Royals moving either Bubic or Ragans to address their offensive needs?

Mark P

• Yeah, Bubic in particular seems like a strong trade candidate

Nationals Fan

• To be honest, these rumors of the Nats possibly trading Gore or even Abrams is making me sick. How likely do you think this is?

Mark P

• Gore is arb-controlled through 2027, and Abrams through 2028.  The question Toboni has to be asking is “do I think Washington can be a contender within the next 2-3 years?”  Since I think the answer to that is probably a no, that makes both players into trade candidates.

Sell Arte Sell

• What was the thinking behind the 1 year contract that the Angels gave Kurt Suzuki to manage the team?  I’ve never seen that for any new manager before.

Mark P

• The thinking is that Moreno doesn’t want to be paying a manager through a 2027 season that may be reduced (or canceled??) by a lockout.  Not only is this very pessimistic, it’s incredibly short-sighted and a little insulting to Suzuki.  It’s quite possible there’s a handshake deal in place to extend Suzuki after the year or after the lockout, yet what if the Angels actually have a good season?  If you’re Suzuki, maybe you then take your chances with another team in need of a skipper, that’s in a better position to truly contend in 2027?

Guest

• Wonder where rob Brantly will end up. Alwys finds a team

Mark P

• Pretty sure this is the first Rob Brantly question I’ve gotten in all the years I’ve been running these chats.
• Brantly has been in six of the last seven MLB seasons, yet with 15 games total in that span.
• https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brantro01.shtml

Woody

• Should I take the QO from the Brewers?

Mark P

• If I’m Woodruff’s agent, I advise him to reject, since he can comfortably top one year/$22.025MM on the open market.

  But that ignores the possible emotional attachment between Woodruff and the Brewers.  Not to mention that there’s enough injury uncertainty around Woodruff that while he’d top the QO price, it might not be that all that much.  Chances are he rejects it, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see Woodruff accept

Dodgers fan

• Sorry about Game 7. How are you holding up?

Mark P

• I wrote in last week’s chat (prior to Game 7) that it was going to be either the best night or worst night of my baseball fandom.  And unfortunately….

  I’m probably going to think about Game 7 for a few minutes of every day until the Blue Jays win their next championship.  It absolutely stinks to lose when a title is just two outs away, but that’s baseball.  Life goes on.  Pitchers and catchers report in just a few months!

Tiger Town

• Is there a market for Riley Greene or Spencer Torkleson that could entice the Tigers to move one of them? Their hitting was so terrible during the last half of the season and postseason it seems like a shakeup is in order.

Mark P

• Since Tork is limited to 1B, he’s the player I think Detroit is more willing to trade if the opposing offer is right.
• Greene has a higher ceiling

Preller Jr

• With the many holes on padres roster will AJ finally use Campusano as a backup C/DH or trade him and get something finally? I’ll never understand their reluctance to use him or trade him by now.

Mark P

• Feels like he should’ve been dealt months ago, since the Padres clearly don’t have him in their plans.

Kelly Leak

• Does Jose Ramirez or Acuna get traded this winter?

Mark P

• Nope and nope

Mr KLC

• If I’m the Astros looking for starting pitching in free agency shouldn’t great injury history be near the top of the list?

Mark P

• That’s at the top of every team’s list, really.  But sure, for Houston in particular you want durability

Anthony

• I might be just dreaming, but do you see any potential interest/package the RedSox can offer for Nick Kurtz?

Mark P

• The A’s would want Roman Anthony straight up.

Astros fan

• Isaac Parades would bring back a better return than Christian Walker but is younger and cheaper. If you are the Astros, who do you tab at first and who do you trade?

Mark P

• If the Astros can find someone to take Walker at like 80 cents on the dollar, they should do it. It might be a case of moving Walker just before a real decline starts.

Franklin

• Do you see Toronto as a potential landing spot for Tucker, especially if Bichette departs, or do you think they focus their resources on other areas?

Mark P

• If Tucker is signed and Bichette leaves, that makes the OF Tucker/Varsho/Santander or Springer on an everyday basis (with Straw occasionally spelling Varsho against some lefties).  That also makes Gimenez/Barger/Clement/Schneider toggling between the three non-1B infield spots, and Lukes becomes a full-time backup.
• So it kinda still works, but if Bichette did leave, Toronto might prefer to bring in another starting infielder to leave themselves more outfield flexibility
• We’re two hours in, so I think we can wrap things up for the evening.  Thanks for all the questions, and hopefully we’re all ramped up for what should be a wild offseason!

Michael

• Which free agent left-handed starting pitcher will end up in Pittsburgh this year?

Tim Dierkes

• https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/2025-26-mlb-free-agents.html
• I hadn’t really considered them adding an SP much.  Can I interest you in Nestor Cortes though?

Steve Adams

• Feels like there’s always one! Haha. But I don’t think they’ll reprise the Rich Hill, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Martin Perez signing this year.
• Money has to go to bats.
• Nestor would be a decent cheap option for midseason depth though, sure, if they want to carry on the tradition
• Maybe give Kyle Hart a minor league deal, haha

Tim Dierkes

• I think the signature move will be a trade for a bat, but I threw the Pirates on Jorge Polanco anyway.  I assume he’ll have better options, but maybe others will be reluctant to go to three years and the Pirates can break precedent and actually do a market value multiyear deal.

Steve Adams

• I had the Bucs on Mullins before he was bumped from the list when the Rays declined Fairbanks’ option last-minute

Guest

• Do you see the Orioles sign a quality SP and not someone like Morton

Steve Adams

• Still think Mullins should be on here, but I digress.

Tim Dierkes

• I’m not positive it’s a signing, but my guess is that the Orioles perhaps learned their lesson with how the Morton/Sugano “safe” additions went.  I think it’s finally time they go bigger.

Steve Adams

• I put them on Framber. I don’t think he’s going to command the 6+ years to which Elias seems averse, and Elias was the Astros’ scouting director for years and has brought in a handful of former Houston guys during his tenure. That’s a reach, of course, but we grasp at straws on these things when making picks sometimes, haha.

Tim Dierkes

• Cease, Framber, King, and Giolito got picks from our team. There’s really no SP they should not be in on.

Reds

• Predicting Pete Alonso to come to the Queen City is quite bold, isn’t it?

Steve Adams

• Broadly speaking, I do think they’ll make a more impactful move. I had them on King for awhile, too. I don’t think they’ll go super long-term. (Orioles)

Tim Dierkes

• It kind of is, but it’s mostly the idea that the Mets have a good chance of moving on and the contract will not be prohibitive.  For the most part I’ve seen larger contract predictions elsewhere and if that happens then it’s probably not the Reds.  It’ll be interesting to see if the market responds differently to have.  Seemed like no one gave a decent four or five-year offer.  I know it was a better year but I don’t think he’s drastically different moving forward.
• *have = him

Steve Adams

• It’s bold in the sense that the Reds don’t spend like this in free agency, but not in the sense that Alonso just isn’t going to cost THAT much by today’s standards. Cincinnati has enough payroll capacity to make one big move in free agency and would free up more if they trade Singer (unless they do the Singer-Taylor Ward swap I have been manifesting for weeks, haha)There’s no clear option at 1B. The team is desperate for offense. We expect the Reds to try for Schwarber, a Cincinnati native they love, and when they fall short pivot to the next-best bet in terms of power bats.

  I wound up putting Alonso on the Red Sox, but I was between them and the Reds primarily for him. We’ll see if they actually pull the trigger, but it feels feasible based on payroll

• And hey, they gave Votto twice what we’re predicting for Pete — and that was more than a decade ago

Jim

• Biggest free agent the A’s sign?

Tim Dierkes

• The A’s got more love on our list than I thought they would.  Eugenio Suarez, Bassitt, Seranthony, G Soto, Mahle, Willi Castro.  The last two of those were mine.  I think they make sense for guys who are finding their market to be disappointing, because we know FA generally don’t want to go there.  I guess Mahle is a stretch, but it was tough to place all these SP without overloading certain teams.  I’m sure the A’s want to add SP.
• I guess I didn’t answer the question.  I’ll stick with Willi.  Can play a bunch of 2B, help out in the OF corners, poor finish to his year.

Steve Adams

• Severino’s experience and vocal distaste for pitching there has me wondering if they’ll be able to reel in another starter of note, so I gave them some decent relievers (Dominguez, Soto). I could see them going after an infield bat though. Jorge Polanco, Gleyber Torres, Geno Suarez.I don’t think it’s impossible that they sign a SP, but they’d probably need to comfortably overpay — like be the team that goes the extra mile for a once-prominent SP whose stock is down. Zac Gallen, perhaps.

Jim

• Do you agree the A’s will have to address their rotation through trade(s) rather than free agency?

Steve Adams

• I do find that the likelier outcome

Tim Dierkes

• Mostly yes. I assume there will be certain guys who would look at them because they can guarantee an opp to start.

Brandon

• I find it very hard to believe Mets let Diaz go, yet everyone predicted he signs with another team. What was the logic behind this?

Steve Adams

• (Re: A’s — also via the farm! Gage Jump time in 2026!)

Tim Dierkes

• I’d say you’re putting too much stock in the team picks.  A little odd to explain but I don’t think any of us feel like the Mets are out on Diaz or unlikely or something.  Personally, though, it was not Stearns who did the first Diaz contract, and committing $20MM+ per year over four to an RP seems like the opposite of why Cohen hired him.  Could Steve just override and say “We need a bullpen, get it done!”?  Of course.

Steve Adams

• I find a Mets return totally plausible, but David Stearns hasn’t to this point been a “let’s pay top-of-market prices for relatively old free agents” kind of guy. The Mets went nuts on Soto, obviously, but he’s 26 and that was a Steve Cohen call anyhow. Maybe Cohen will just keep Diaz at all costs. I find that plausible. But Stearns tends to operate more on the value side of things.(Then again, I put Devin Williams there on a pretty big deal himself, but Williams’ first-half struggles in the Bronx might’ve cost him tens of millions of dollars, so I can see Stearns — former Milwaukee GM/president — thinking his former closer is a relative bargain who’ll bounce back just fine)

Tim Dierkes

• I like the Dodgers on Diaz for the sheer obviousness of A) not having a bullpen by the WS B) him being the top available RP for just money and C) they just won the WS, they have plenty of money to spend, and it has to go somewhere.

Steve Adams

• I put Diaz in Toronto for similar reasons to Tim putting him in L.A.

Rich S

• Brad Keller to the Dodgers ?

Tim Dierkes

• Viable, unless they want a guy with a deeper track record of success.
• I had Keller on the Braves like some of my colleagues, perhaps because AA has spent on RP and Keller could be one of those “maybe he can start” conversions like Reynaldo was.  I did a late switch when I decided Raisel could just stay there, and I didn’t have the Yankees doing anything to address their bullpen.

Steve Adams

• Totally viable. We’ve been wondering whether a team will try to put him back in the rotation. Five pitches. Track record as a solid starter before he had TOS surgery.The Braves love the reliever-to-starter move (Reynaldo Lopez, tried it with Jeff Hoffman but balked at the physical) … and they also love Georgia guys … like Keller!

FishFam

• O’Hearn to Miami feel like a fit?

Steve Adams

• 100%

Tim Dierkes

• 3 of 4 of us picked that, ROH is a low-end regular, they have a clear 1B need and intend to be more active in FA that usual.  We had him on a three-year deal and switched to two late.  I guess Anthony thinks Naylor leaves the Mariners and they switch to him.

Jim

• Which free agent caused the biggest disagreement among you all?

Steve Adams

• I had him there even before Barry Jackson with the Miami Herald suggested this week that the Marlins will try to add a more established presence at 1B. ROH won’t break the bank, and the Marlins are a team that could even push to a third year to get the deal done.
• A lot of them!  Haha

Tim Dierkes

• Hmm.  Let’s throw some out there.  I had to fight to get Robert Suarez a third year

Steve Adams

• Who was our biggest? Dylan Cease maybe?

Tim Dierkes

• We pushed Bellinger up to 140 late
• Darragh and I had Cease on a long-term deal, Anthony and Steve short.  Long won out but that can go either way

Steve Adams

• You didn’t “fight” for it. You just overrode the rest of us and gave him the third year haha

Tim Dierkes

• Haha fair
• I do that once in a while, with limited success haha

Steve Adams

• Yeah, I came around on Cease long-term eventually. I like the pitcher and think he SHOULD get paid. I just am wary with the ERA fluctuations.A few more…

Tim Dierkes

• I had Murakami a lot lower, but I get why we came up

Steve Adams

• Tim and I had a hilariously impassioned back-and-forth over one year versus two for Raisel Iglesias of all people. I did not expect to be a passionate Raisel Iglesias truther, but this list does weird things to us.
• Devin Williams we were all over the map on

Tim Dierkes

• I had King and Gallen on two-year opt-out deals but came around to the four years

Steve Adams

• He’s another in the Cease bucket of “this ERA is a fluke, he’s one of the best in baseball … will he get paid based on the rate stats?”

Tim Dierkes

• I might still take the under on Devin, but we argued so much back and forth that my brain turned to mush

Steve Adams

• Eventually we decided yes.I was heavy on Zac Gallen despite not liking the pitcher much. It’s hard to take that stance with much vigor…. “I don’t think this guy is that good, but I do think he’s going to get paid because XYZ”

Tim Dierkes

• Yeah, we have guys like that every year.  I remember the year Hosmer was a FA, we knew he’d get paid and none of us would like it.  That proved true

Andy

• Would the Dodgers risk clubhoise chemistry by trading Teo or Muncy to make room for a big splash?

Steve Adams

• None of us are very big on Gallen. I think we all feel he’s a landmine. But we thought the same about Madison Bumgarner, predicted him to get paid anyway, and we were right.Cuts both ways though. We all thought Alonso would be hung out to dry last winter but didn’t have the guts to predict a short-term deal for him. Wish we would have stuck to our guns.

Tim Dierkes

• On the Dodgers question, I think they’d look at that.  They could also just bring someone in and let things be crowded.  For example, if they love Murakami or he wants to go there on an affordable deal, they could just jam him in there and keep Freeman/Muncy

Steve Adams

• I find Hernandez more viable than Muncy, mainly because Max is only on a cheap one-year deal. If they want to make a bigger splash, they can just do it and sort out the playing time. Murakami, for instance.Teo feels like a square peg in a round hole there with two more years of bad OF defense all but locked in. He didn’t hit that well this year. They only brought him back with heavy deferrals at a relatively light rate (by big-market standards).

  I think they’d welcome the opportunity to move on, but that’s totally speculative on my end just based on years of watching how they operate. I have not pinged Friedman or Gomes to get their thoughts on the matter, haha

Kk

• Will the Red Sox really pursue any of the power bats with limited to no defensive value (Schwarber, Alonso, Suarez, Murakami etc)? I see the names pop up incessantly, but it seems like the polar opposite of how the team wants to change. Clearly, contracts like Yoshida’s and Devers’ are not the type they easily stomach.

Tim Dierkes

• I put them on Geno for lack of a better option in concert with my other picks.  They want power, they want better defense, he only offers one of those.  Most players who offer both are not available.  But they basically have DH open, so they can accomplish the power without affecting the defense.  Yoshida was a mistake, but Breslow didn’t make it.  I don’t know that that would affect their interest in Schwarber.

Steve Adams

• I think they have pretty easily stomached Yoshida’s. I also think that was them sort of trying to get cute by overspending on a NPB bat they hoped could produce at Alonso-y levels (not in terms of pure power but just overall offensive value) and it burned them significantly.Again, we’re basically giving Alonso like $24-27M per season over a four- or five-year deal. It’s just not that much by their standards. They can play him at 1B for a year or two, then move him to DH and let him absolutely destroy the Monster (or maybe not, since he’d be clearing the thing so often)

Tim Dierkes

• Geno is Eugenio Suarez, for future reference.  We are thankful for shorthand options as we do most of our deliberating in a Discord chat

Steve Adams

• Good Vibes Only

Meow

• Congrats on 20 years, guys! Feels like the site has grown so big since I was browsing it to kill time in college over 15 () years ago.

Tim Dierkes

• Thanks!  We have come a long way from the days where I did all of the writing and in a much less professional way

Ray

• Looks like the Cubs won’t be shopping at the top, am I wrong?

Steve Adams

• I was browsing it to kill time (and figure out where Johan Santana was going to be traded) in college … 18 years ago! Did not think I’d be working here full-time for what’s now coming up on a decade and a half (wtf)

Tim Dierkes

• I can’t tell yet.  Logically payroll should be up this year, at least closer to the CBT.  The Kittredge trade was weirdly cheap for a bullpen that basically just has Palencia, but maybe they just don’t like him at that money for next year.  I’m guessing the Cubs would prefer to trade for a good SP than sign one.  They’ve rarely done the latter, but Hoyer was there for Lester and Darvish.  Lester was a Cubs legend and Darvish was solid for most of the six years even though Hoyer dealt him halfway through.

Steve Adams

• The Cubs never want to shop at the top. I don’t really understand why. They’re the Cubs. They print money.I could see them adding one of the bigger starters but not quite the top of the market. Did I put them on Ranger Suarez? I think I did. Ha. Something in that just-over-100 price range.

  I also put them on Kazuma Okamoto, simply because I don’t think Matt Shaw did anything in 2025 to seize the 3B job, and if they’re not going to shell out for an absolute top-of-market free agent, Shaw, Caissie, etc. are going to be popular asks on the trade market.

  I think the Cubs will be in on Joe Ryan, MacKenzie Gore — basically all the big trade names this winter.

Go Birds!

• Does kyle tucker end up in red pinstripes in south philly this coming season?

Steve Adams

• I can see it. Phils were on my short list of plausible Tucker spots, along with the Giants, Jays, Yankees and Dodgers.

Tim Dierkes

• Darragh predicted that.  I think it’s reasonable enough, particularly if Schwarber leaves.

Jack

• Could the D-Backs be a sneaky fit for Alex Bregman? He is a New Mexico guy. I know Lawlar is likely their intended 3B next year but maybe if they land Bregman they could seek to use him as a headliner for a big starter acquisition?

Tim Dierkes

• I hadn’t though much about that fit.  They are supposed to reduce payroll and are prioritizing pitching.  That said, Ken Kendrick’s big moves sometimes seem to come out of nowhere.

Steve Adams

• Lawlar looks so, so bad at 3B. They’re trying him in CF. I don’t think they’re convinced at all that he’s the long-term 3B. They traded Suarez and still didn’t hand 3B over to him full time.Snakes are trying to scale back payroll and contend simultaneously, which is a tall ask — particularly since they have basically no rotation or bullpen right now. I expect pitching to be the primary focus.

  Even if they did trade Lawlar for a pitcher — which feels perfectly plausible — I think they’d still dedicate their free agent resources to pitching

Free agent buzz

• What do you think the Jays pivot is if they don’t land bichette? Do they look at the OF and move Barger to 3B/Clement 2B? Do you see them focusing on bichette or the pitching market first?

Tim Dierkes

• The Jays are one of those teams that is capable of adding just about anyone.  If Bichette leaves, I could see Bregman or even Tucker.  And I could see them signing any SP or RP, up to and including Cease or E Diaz.  Would they sign two top 10 FA?  Not the type of thing we like to predict on our list, but it happens.

Steve Adams

• They can do anything, in part because Shane Bieber just decided to leave anywhere from $60-100MM on the table and gift them a return at the same price we saw the shells of Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton command last winter.(I think that may be the most surprising option decision I’ve ever seen)

  Jays could realistically pay Tucker, Bregman, Cease, Diaz … and frankly, I expect them to go hard after multiple big names. They’ve been in on Ohtani, Soto, Sasaki (different type of big fish) and more.

  Getting some of those top names to sign is a lot easier now that they were just a few pitches away from a WS title.

Tim Dierkes

• I will have to find it but one time I interviewed JP Ricciardi and he talked about how the typical free agent does not want to go to Toronto, so they had to overpay to get A.J. Burnett there.  Based on the Bieber decision and everything coming out about the 2025 clubhouse, what Ricciardi said seems very much not the case.
• could be in here.  Don’t have time to read https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/opt-out-clauses-mlb.html

Blue Jays fan

• Were you guys shocked that Shane Bieber didn’t opt out? If he wanted to stay in Toronto, why wouldn’t he opt out and resign with the jays for more?

Steve Adams

• That was also probably 15 years ago? Fair to say some things have probably changed, haha
• Literal most shocking option decision I can recall.

Tim Dierkes

• Yeah, as Steve said, we were indeed shocked.  There were a lot of “wtf?” texts going around.  We had 5/130 on Bieber.

Steve Adams

• I happened to be texting with a couple other agents (different agencies) about other topics at the time Bieber opted in, and they were dumbfounded
• “Has to be hurt” and “I don’t understand this at all… I don’t care how much you love Toronto” were their immediate replies, ha.

Tim Dierkes

• I have seen some stuff on Twitter with some Jays fans saying, “The national media just not get us!  They shouldn’t be surprised Bieber did this.”  But after doing this for 20 years, we’ve certainly seen players take discounts to stay put, but this is just on a scale that we cannot recall.

Steve Adams

• I hope he’s not hurt.

TxDude

• With the reports being that the Rangers are kind of strapped for money, what moves do you see them making? They need a complete offensive overhaul

Steve Adams

• If Bieber wanted a “discount” to stay in Toronto, he could’ve signed for like … 3/75?
• This is so far beyond a discount

Tim Dierkes

• A couple of us did Arraez with Texas, I put Caratini there.  My assumption is that CY builds the bullpen back up cheaply as he’s had some success with that.
• It’s weird because even cutting payroll, they’ve got room to spend.  But the “we’re not spending” vibes seem pretty strong so I guess none of us put them on a major FA.

Steve Adams

• It’s not reports … president of baseball operations Chris Young plainly said they lacked payroll certainty this offseason.I think the Rangers are going to move on from Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim. I expect them to be very open to trading Josh Jung and Jake Burger.

  That said, their payroll is projected for $197MM at RosterResource right now. That’s already down from last year’s $225MM, and that still includes Garcia and Heim for a combined (projected) $18MM. I think they’re both as good as gone.

  So there’s room for them to make some additions and still keep payroll down a bit.

  Arraez does fit there and would change the offensive identity. I think they add a new catcher (Ryan Jeffers? Victor Caratini? Even JT Realmuto is possible) and move away from a lot of this low-OBP, big-power archetype they’ve sort of begun cultivating (whether by design or happenstance)

John

• Will the Royals make a bigger splash in the trade market over free agency?

Tim Dierkes

• It does seem that they would like to trade an SP for a corner OF bat.  But bringing Yaz back or doing something on that scale in FA makes sense too.

Steve Adams

• Their system just isn’t that great, and I’m not as big on moving a big league SP as Tim and (I think) Darragh have been when suggesting someone like Kris Bubic.I had the Royals on Gleyber Torres before he received the QO. Since I think he’ll accept, I moved Jorge Polanco from SF to KC.

  I find the Royals totally viable for a reunion with Yaz or a run at Cedric Mullins (who, again, should be on the list, Tim )

• Grisham, too, though not sure they’ll spend that aggressively.

Tim Dierkes

• Cedric Mullins was a point of debate, believe it or not.  Most of us couldn’t get him past one year and $10 mil.  I assume Steve was furious when the Rays declined Fairbanks’ option and Mullins was bumped

Steve Adams

• Don’t love the player. But someone’s going to pay him more than we would. The end.

Vince

• Your estimate of $400m/11y for Tucker seems high to me, maybe because I’m not as familiar with him, because he doesn’t seem to have the impact of other players who have reached that number.  How much of his estimated guarantee is due to the weakness of the FA class?
  Also, for Steve, you

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t think weakness of the FA class had much to do with it.  Tucker is a very good player.  The idea that he might sign the fourth-largest contract in MLB history is deceiving, because of inflation.
• I am in the Chicago area and saw firsthand how weird and disappointing Tucker’s second half was.  I don’t feel great about the 400 mil prediction, but also did not have the conviction to put him lower.  My colleagues helped make his case and it remains strong.
• I wrote some stuff in my mailbag about how I can see Tucker’s market failing to materialize, but at that point I hadn’t given enough consideration to the Blue Jays.  I think he has the Jays, Dodgers, and Yankees as three fairly likely big market suitors.  If for whatever reason two of those take different paths, Tucker will not get 400 mil, in my estimation.

Steve Adams

• Tucker is 29 and does everything well. He’s had a couple pretty fluky injuries that were exacerbated certainly by Houston’s … less-than-stellar … track record with managing injuries (and, to a lesser extent, that also happened in Chicago).He probably is the quietest superstar in the game, but Tucker is a bankable source of 4-5 WAR every season even including the past two injury-shortened years. A full season of a healthy Tucker is probably comfortably worth 6+ wins. Teams pay for youth.

  Tim wanted him lower, and I can’t say I’ll be shocked if he signs for “only” 350 or so, but this player is so, so good, and with teams like the Giants, Jays, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers all standing as viable landing spots, yeah I think he gets a mega-deal.

  As Tim is referencing, focusing on the trade market for bats or simply prioritizing pitching for some of his major potential suitors could throw a wrench into the 400+ contract, but I don’t see any real way he signs for under 300

• And I tend to prefer erring on the side of aggression when it comes to the very top free agent(s)

Tim Dierkes

• I did come in at 400 mil in my independent Tucker prediction.  But when we all kind of landed there as a consensus, I stress-tested that a lot because I’m really not sure.  I have also written in my mailbag, Excel Sports Management hasn’t really had guys where taking the Boras path of three years and $120MM with two opt-outs was chosen.  We don’t know if Excel would accept something in that 300 range for Kyle.

Astros fan

• How did you come up with Verlanders salary? To me his age makes him too large of a risk to decline or be injured to give him that much.

Steve Adams

• He just got 15MM coming off a 91-inning season with a 5+ ERA
• Then he went out and had this season, complete with a monster finish. He has to have earned a raise (or he should have). I suggested putting him at the QO value and we all more or less agreed.

Tim Dierkes

• I started at 16 there and I assume a few of the guys talked me up.  But we have seen some very mediocre guys get 15.  Verlander had a really nice finish, he’s a famous future HOF, he’s slowly driving toward 300 wins.  Ultimately I felt like his stature meant he should indeed get more than a million bucks over Alex Cobb.

Steve Adams

• Also, and this is silly, but $22MM just … isn’t much in today’s MLB climate.

Tim Dierkes

• Whether that’s 18, 20, 22, I don’t know, but sub-18 does feel wrong to me.

Steve Adams

• Certainly not on a one-year deal

The Fonz

• Does the weird F. Valdez incident from earlier this year impact his free agency?

Tim Dierkes

• Our team voted no on that.

Steve Adams

• I don’t have much to add beyond that. I’ve been asked and answered this in basically every chat I’ve had on the site since the cross-up.Framber Valdez is one of the best left-handed pitchers (best pitchers, period) in the game and I don’t think one perceived scuffle (if it was even that) with a teammate is going to cost him significantly in free agency. He’s too talented.

Joe

• Why didn’t the Rays pick up Fairbanks’ option and trade him?

Tim Dierkes

• My assumption is that no one wanted to trade for him at 11 mil.  The Rays could’ve dealt him just to get out of the buyout, as the Cubs did with Kittredge.  From what I’ve seen on Twitter, Fairbanks’ reputation outstrips his current abilities.  This was the first healthy season of his career, he’s at 97 and not 99 these days, and his K% has been average the last few years.  He’d a fine reliever, that’s about it.

Steve Adams

• I like him a bit more than Tim, but he is more name value than performance/positive trend lines right now. He was healthier this season but also took notable steps back in velo, K%, swinging-strike rate, etc.I won’t be surprised if Fairbanks ends up around 1/11 or the 2/18 we predicted. But teams are wary about plopping down significant expenditures on day one of the offseason if they’re at or close to market value. We’ve seen this in the past. Colin Rea last year. Brad Hand with Cleveland a few winters back.

  I suspect Fairbanks wasn’t viewed as having much surplus value, and the Rays preferred to just pay the $1MM buyout as opposed to exercising and then finding minimal trade value as the offseason wore on

Guest

• Who makes the final call on the years/$ amounts? Are each of you assigned certain players and you get the final call?

Steve Adams

• At that point, you either have a sub-$100MM payroll with a reliever (possibly a declining one) taking up $11MM of it. Or you have to eat more than the $1MM buyout just to trade him for a negligible return.

Tim Dierkes

• I make the final call, but I like to come to something close to a consensus.  On certain players we will have one dissenter, but mostly all four were at least begrudgingly on board with what we put out there.

Salary floor

• Any belief a salary floor will be included in the next CBA? I could see that greatly impacting free agency

Steve Adams

• We collaborate and try to have a consensus. But at the end of the day, Tim started MLBTR and he writes the checks. If he wants to be wrong about Robert Suarez getting three years — just like he was wrong about Robert Stephenson getting four years 🙂 — that’s his right!
• (Tim has also very correctly pushed several guys over the line against pushback in the past. I’m just needling him here haha)

Tim Dierkes

• I feel better than ever about Robert Suarez getting three years.  If he gets three and 40+, Anthony Franco has to buy me a Robert Suarez shirsey of his new team.  So in my mind that’s already in my wardrobe

Steve Adams

• I’ve got framed James McCann and Travis d’Arnaud shirseys in my office
• The TDA one is a Dodgers shirsey! (He had one PA as a Dodger)

Tim Dierkes

• yes!  At least I came through on those.  We had to add an apostrophe to the custom TDA one
• anyway, the salary floor question.
• I don’t think that can happen without a cap.  In talking with the team, we do not think a cap happens in this CBA.

Steve Adams

• I don’t see a salary floor and don’t think it would have the intended effect most fans seem to.

Trader Jim

• When you guys make these predictions, how much weight do you put on a team’s proclivity to not want to give up draft pick compensation?

Tim Dierkes

• For me, if the GM basically said they wouldn’t sign a qualified FA (which I’m guessing the union would take issue with), then I’d account for that.  Otherwise I didn’t let it be an overriding factor on a fit I liked.
• To be fair, there are a lot of FA for whom I think the QO will be a problem: Gallen, Imanaga, Grisham, maybe King and Woodruff.  Torres so much so that we predicted he will accept

Steve Adams

• In terms of market value, a Tucker/Bichette, zero thought. The QO has repeatedly proven not to be a major deterrent for the top stars. For others, it matters greatly. We had Gleyber signing a three-year deal, but as soon as he got the QO, we all said on our group text “So Gleyber accepts? Right? Right.”Team-wise, yeah, it has to come into play a bit. There are clubs who seem loath to sign a qualified FA or who, at least in one specific offseason, kind of signal that they’re really against it in the short-term.

Sparky

• On Bregman, the piece said “There seems to be an expectation the Red Sox will get it done”, yet all four of you predicted he’d go elsewhere. Can you clarify?

Tim Dierkes

• Interesting contrast.  Part of that might be me writing that Bregman thing several weeks ago.  But it’s also that in this case I think the media might be wrong

Steve Adams

• Yeah, Tim wrote that player up and I agreed with the sentiment … a lot of the Boston media is treating Bregman as something the Sox have to get done.I don’t think they will. This hasn’t been in Breslow’s wheelhouse to date, and I think other clubs are going to more heavily prioritize him. Boston has other in-house infield options that are highly regarded, even after disappointing rookie showings. Mayer, Campbell. They could sign a shorter-term option. They also badly need starting pitching.

  Granted, I picked them to sign Alonso, so I’m very much talking out of both sides of my mouth here, but I think the Alonso contract will come in much lighter and feel like the Sox (or whoever) gave him a bit of a soft landing, whereas I expect Bregman to be more genuinely in demand and command top-of-market dollars.

cpins

• I know the projected landing spots are as much fun as meaningful but Woodruff to the Mets got me thinking about a larger issue.  If they trade for a frontline starter wouldn’t they want to avoid the 2 pick/$1m IFA penalty since the trade would deplete the farm?  2nd thought:  Is the comp penalty price for a Woodruff greater than the likely prospect cost for a trade for say Alcantara?

Tim Dierkes

• My assumption is that the Mets will only bring in one front-rotation type.  If Woodruff qualifies as that for Stearns, then giving up the second and fifth round picks and the international pool money is part of the calculus.  3/66 is a fairly light contract if Woody can pitch like he did in the regular season this year and most importantly, by healthy for the most part come October (which of course he was not in 2023 and ’25).
• The Alcantara price I think would require players with relative certainty and proximity to the Majors.  It just seems like a different kind of way of paying than forfeiting picks, most of which bust
• You don’t want to continually wipe out all your draft picks, it’s a numbers game, but a lot of fifth rounders don’t become anything
• I assume the three of us picking the Mets on Woodruff couldn’t resist the Stearns connection and his tendency thus far to not sign SP to long-term deals.  We sometimes grasp at straws a little bit to decide why this team should get this SP and this other one that one

Steve Adams

• Not convinced the Marlins trade Sandy this winter. At all. Though it’s possible enough that he ranked prominently on the Trade Candidate list. He will 100% be talked about and sought after all offseason.It gets a little murky, answering questions like this. You’re making short-term talent acquisition concessions by signing Woodruff. You’re making a different kind of concession to add Alcantara (or another veteran SP on the trade market), but there’s the implied future value of making him a QO years down the line as well, if all goes according to plan.

  More to the specific Mets question … their farm is great. They can stomach the loss of two picks and some international money. And it’s feasible they can get some extra picks in the future, pending possible QOs for Clay Holmes, David Peterson etc.

Tim Dierkes

• My last thought on Woodruff is that he’s gonna need a clean physical. The late lat strain was likened to a hamstring strain.  I ain’t a doctor, so we will see

BurnerK

• Did everyone think Dombrowskis Flex statements on Schwarber was enough to scare everyone away from bidding or what?

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t believe free agency typically works that way, and the true flex would’ve been to just sign Schwarber to an extension.  That did not happen so clearly Kyle has some interest in seeing what’s out there based on whatever overtures the Phillies have made thus far

Steve Adams

• One more Woodruff point from me: I’d be surprised if he accepts. I think the very fact that the Brewers made the QO suggests they believe the injury is not major. They’re already paying him a $10MM buyout, so this is Milwaukee of all teams risking a $32MM payout to a pitcher. Yikes.
• Dombrowski is as aggressive a GM as there is when he sets his sights on someone. I think the Phils just love Schwarber and feel he’s the guy they cannot let get away

Mariners

• Do you see a world where Alonso signs in Miami?

Tim Dierkes

• Mostly no.  If his market is so bad that he’s doing another two-year deal, and the Mets have already moved on, then I guess I can almost slightly see that world if I squint

Steve Adams

• Personally, no. I think it’s too big a financial risk and I also don’t think this is a skill set that president of bb ops Peter Bendix values highly
• Oh true, in that scenario, sure.
• But then you’d have a bunch of unexpected bidders in the fray since there’s no QO this time around

Ethan

• Do think the MLBPA will step in like last year with the Athletics and threaten a grievance if a team doesn’t increase spending? The Marlins come to mind for me.

Tim Dierkes

• Yes, but those grievances are weird.  They never seem to result in real penalty and I think dismissing them just becomes another CBA bargaining chip.  If we’re going to say teams need to spend 150% of their revenue sharing, then the players need to fight for strong penalties when they don’t.  Also I’d really love for revenue sharing info to not be under lock and key as it is!
• I can see why MLB has locked that down though.  If we saw all the revenue sharing figures in a concrete way each year, there would be more pressure on recipients to spend it on players

Steve Adams

• I think the A’s were a special case. They’d lost revenue-sharing in the past and only had their rev sharing rights reinstated under the past CBA. Then they went right back to basement-level CBT numbers.If you look at the Marlins, they ran an $86MM CBT number this year, which the MLBPA probably hates — but they’re also already signaling plans to spend some. Also, from 2022-24, they were between $105MM and $139MM in CBT tallies every year.

  The A’s were like 3-4 straight years at $85MM or less. That’s the difference, I would assume.

Refresh, Please

• Of the four of you—which had the most correct last year and what was that number?

Tim Dierkes

• https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/mlbtr-apps/free_agent_contest_leaderboa…
• Steve led the team with a robust .188 average on 48 picks

Steve Adams

• No one’s taking my crown this year baby
• Gunning for a beefy .200 batting average

Tim Dierkes

• Out of I think 5,000 people, one guy hit over .229

Steve Adams

• The champ is here.
• Now please never look at the prior offseasons
• Just trust that I am always in the lead and certainly that I’ve never been at the bottom of the pile.

Mike

• Do you see the Yankees possibly signing Bichette?

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t think they need to spend big money on a non-SS.  Long shot for me

Steve Adams

• Don’t love the fit but I understand it. Volpe is a question mark, only one more year of Jazz at 2B, lots of talk about needing a new offensive approach.I still don’t see it.
• Side note on that
• The Yankees are one of like 7 teams where all the talk is about making more contact, getting on base more, moving away from such a boom-or-bust approach, etc.That bodes well for Bichette. And for Tucker!

ERS

• What was your debate like that re: Murakami? I get the big power, but the Ks are worrying enough that I’d be very wary of giving him anything over, like, 4 years. There is a legitimate chance he is not a viable major league hitter if he is striking out upwards of 33%.

Tim Dierkes

• I’ll mostly cede to Steve’s memory on this.  I came in at 5/100, we talked ourselves up to 208, and then we came back down a bit to 180.  For the most part it was about 80 grade power and youth you can rarely find on the market, but the risk is real.
• We have regularly come in low on star Japanese free agents, so this was probably an attempted correction on that as well

Steve Adams

• Agree wholeheartedly. I threw out Miguel Sano as a possible worst-case scenario here.That said, we see teams make questionable nine-figure commitments to more established guys all the time. Chris Davis, Javy Baez, Nick Castellanos, Patrick Corbin — the list goes on.

  Murakami is so young with such rare power than I think a team will dream on him. I also make an effort to chat with MLB scouts who focus on NPB/KBO every offseason when it comes to these guys, and I didn’t hear anything so negative or worrisome on Murakami to make me think he’d come in with a short-term deal or something under 100.

Tim Dierkes

• Some high K guys become absolute monsters.  Some do not.  NPB projections are the hardest

Matt

• Do you see the Twins signing any real free agents? After mostly sitting out of the market the last few years, I feel like they now have some wiggle room to add a little salary with Correa gone. Am I too optimistic that the Pohlads will spend money?

Steve Adams

• Murakami is so young, it’s easy to see a team thinking it’s getting Schwarber-lite, with a smidge of defensive value, and shelling out for that.

Tim Dierkes

• Classic Steve question.  Once I decided they didn’t need a top 50 FA, I focused on other teams

Steve Adams

• I’m 40 years old and have spent all but 4.5 years of my life (2014-18) living in Minnesota. Nothing in the Pohlad history gives me an iota of confidence they’ll spend money this winter.They absolutely have the capacity to. They have like $93MM projected as a payroll, and that’s before they non-tender Trevor Larnach and (likely) trade Ryan Jeffers. They could get wild — gut payroll at the deadline, add a bunch of MLB-ready guys like Abel, Bradley, Roden, etc. then turn around and spend the savings/deal from one of the best farms in MLB (that’ll get better with a likely top-5 pick next year) to try to get right back in contention!

  They also, almost certainly, will do none of that.

Tim Dierkes

• haha I enjoyed that answer

Steve Adams

• I would love any team to engineer that kind of chaos. I love offseason chaos. I badly want it, not as a childhood Twins fan or current Minnesota resident.
• I just want insanity. The Twins could do it. I have no faith they will.

Tim Dierkes

• agreed.  at MLBTR we always, always want offseason chaos.  Unexpected stuff rules, that’s all we’re really rooting for

Cards guy

• the cards sign any free agents at all ?

Tim Dierkes

• seems like they’ll add some SP innings and a veteran reliever.  I had them on Adrian Houser before we cut him from the list, although he doesn’t really feel like a Bloom type signing.  I think they’ll do low-level value stuff in FA this winter.

Steve Adams

• I almost gave them Giolito but that feels like too heavy an expenditure. I do think they’ll sign some cheap innings and maybe make an upside play or two in the bullpen.But I also expect them to trade Donovan, Gray and Romero at the very least. Probably Nolan Gorman. I don’t think this is a team that’s going to make any exciting win-now moves.

Carl

• I saw where you guys had the Braves active on quite a few of the mid tier guys on your list. Do you think they make a push for one of the top starting pitchers similar to the Nola pursuit a couple of years ago? If so who would that be?

Tim Dierkes

• I think they already have high ceiling starters and just need some semi-reliable innings, hence my Bassitt pick there.  If I’m wrong, Cease is the on-the-nose pick since he’s from GA.  That’d surprise me, but like you said, there’s a bit of precedent for AA trying for a top FA SP

Steve Adams

• Nola is the only time the Braves have ever even flirted with the idea of spending long-term on a free agent. I can’t view him as anything other than a special case where Anthopoulos and others in the group loved that specific player.I expect them to be strongly in the mix to re-sign Kim and Iglesias, and I gave them Brad Keller as their reliever-to-starter conversion du jour.
• (Also a Georgia native!)

Tim Dierkes

• It’s kinda funny to me that Nola was AA’s one exception guy, and two years later that contract looks really rough.  Five years left

Guest

• How do you think about Zack Littell becoming an A?

Tim Dierkes

• I feel just fine about it, especially if the A’s pony up for a third year as Anthony Franco tried pushing for.  Pffff Anthony, so silly
• If I’m Zack, I don’t care if I need to pitch at a Little League field, if I can get 3/30 or so

Steve Adams

• Anthony loves Zack Littell
• Well, no
• Anthony just thinks a team will pay Zack Littell and is more ambivalent toward him than the rest of us, who think he’s like a fifth starter.

Peter Man

• Is Cody Bellinger and option for a return to the dodgers? I believe Dodgers need to trade Teo, maybe to the Phillies?

Steve Adams

• Agree with Tim on that last point — max out, dude.
• The Phillies have been trying desperately to undo the Castellanos mistake for years. Trading for Teo would be the funniest thing ever.

Tim Dierkes

• I just can’t see the Dodgers re-engaging with Belli in the $140-160 mil range.  If somehow the bottom drops out on his market again, then maaaaaybe they can kind of view him as a different, healthy guy and throw him a short-term deal
• For most of October, we had Belli at 5/125.  I was looking at it yesterday and just couldn’t stomach it, so we pushed to 140.  The FA market spat on this guy once, then the trade market kind of did.  The question is whether Boras would “settle” for 125 or we’d get yet another round of Belli opt-outs

Steve Adams

• And yeah, I’m out on Bellinger/Dodgers as a viable reunion. The breakup there was so bad, both in terms of on-field performance and then the weird comments after the fact where there was finger-pointing about his injuries and how they were handled and all parties kind of had to publicly say “Oh we didn’t mean that we’re all good here”I don’t remember the specifics, but it just doesn’t feel like something that’ll be revisited.

Tim Dierkes

• I wonder about the psychological effect of three years with two opt-outs.  To keep trying to prove yourself and having the will he/won’t he each winter.  It’d mess with me man

JW

• Every year the Cubs seem to wait to choose from the fell-between-the-cracks guys. Who do you think they’re hoping to see in that group this year?

Steve Adams

• Think we already kind of saw that with Flaherty
• I was surprised he took 1/20, but eventually you probably just get sick of being a free agent and hearing why teams don’t want you haha

Tim Dierkes

• On the Cubs, I suppose Bregman again, maybe King, Gallen, D Williams?

Steve Adams

• Feels like a Tim/Chicago question here. Hah
• I can see any of those pitchers. They’re not paying Bregman
• Helsley maybe

Tim Dierkes

• If the Cubs simply don’t want to do the long-term SP deals, then lying in wait to see if King/Gallen will take two years seems like something they’d do

Steve Adams

• Fairbanks
• Agree on that

Tim Dierkes

• That said, the Cubs could’ve had Bregman by putting an opt-out after Year 1 and they did not, perhaps feeling burned by the Belli thing.  So I’m not positive they want to keep doing that

ERS

• If Giolito had received the QO, would you guys have predicted him to accept?

Steve Adams

• I think so

Tim Dierkes

• We were doing a late debate on that situation but yes, I think we leaned that way bc him being out on the market with a QO would’ve been really rough for him

Dahntahn Pittsburgh

• Who should Bob Nutting pursue at a high-ceiling level in free agency?

Steve Adams

• Ending with an elbow scare is tough, and even throughout his awesome 20-start stretch to close the season, he wasn’t missing bats anywhere near his prior levels. He wasn’t even league-average in that regard.
• “Pirates owner Bob Nutting” and “high-ceiling free agent” do not compute

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t really know how to answer this, haha

Steve Adams

• If you’re at all a believer in a potential Cedric Mullins bounceback, then I can see that

Tim Dierkes

• usually the high ceiling deals are for SPs, they don’t really need that.  So I guess Okamoto could be an answer

Steve Adams

• (I’m not really, but maybe some folks are!)

Jared

• Will the Rockies sign any real free agents this offseason? Do you think the addition of Paul DePodesta will affect the offseason strategy bring more aggressive or conservative than usual?

Steve Adams

• Think the Rockies are going to be at the beginning of a very, very long rebuild both in terms of their roster and the infrastructure of the organization itself.I don’t see them doing anything more than short-term pieces who could maybe be flipped at the deadline.

Tim Dierkes

• That will be fascinating to find out.  My guess is that DePo will come in and tell the Rockies they suck and it ain’t getting fixed through free agency.  But I also assume he’s going to shake things up in a lot of ways in Colorado and that should be fun.

Brewer Fan

• Brewers have anymore flexibility this year with some contracts coming off the books and Chourio’s big numbers not kicking in yet? Think there is any all-in moves they could explore? I know I know… they wont.

Steve Adams

• Yoan Moncada? Luis Rengifo? That sort of bat (re: Rockies)

Tim Dierkes

• I had Gleyber in Milwaukee before he got the QO
• A Quintana-esque signing if Peralta and Woody leave. A trade for Paredes maybe. Moncada works there. Geno was my long shot pick for them

Steve Adams

• Eh, Hoskins is off the books sure, but they’re also paying big a big arb raise to Contreras and now have an unexpected (but very welcome) semi-notable $8MM or so to pay Andrew Vaughn following that hilarious breakout. That’ll eat up a fair bit of the payroll that’s coming off the books.I don’t expect them to spend much. Operate on the trade market, bring in some sneaky value free agents. The typical Brewers playbook.

  Not a bad thing. If it ain’t broke…….

• Turang also arb-eligible for the first time. Megill gets a raise. Payroll already looks similar to 2025.

Jim C

• You’re describing Bichette as a non-SS…is it a done deal that he moves to 2B?

Tim Dierkes

• More that we feel he only has a year or two max at the position, or something of a backup SS/starting 2B role

Steve Adams

• Yeah. No one’s signing Bo with the expectation that he’s their shortstop in even 2029, let alone like 2032.

DC’s Finest

• Name one FA and one trade who Paul Toboni could get this offseason

Steve Adams

• You’re signing the bat. And the youth. (Bichette)

Tim Dierkes

• For the Nats FA, I’ll say Caratini. The trade…eh, I’ll make Steve do it?
• I’m not sure this is the right time to trade Gore

Nattitude

• The Nats are going to spend big this free agency. Similar to the rangers a few years ago. They have to accelerate the rebuild

Tim Dierkes

• That I do not see

Steve Adams

• I don’t expect the Nats to be that aggressive. Could see Caratini, sure. Maybe take an upside swing at Rengifo, Moncada … hope for a Hoskins bounceback?I think it’s 100% the right time to trade Gore. And CJ Abrams.
• A trade acquisition…… hard when they’re rebuilding

ERS

• As a general question, how do you balance what you would personally give to a player versus what you expect the market to give?

Steve Adams

• You’re looking at younger guys, maybe who’ve fallen out of favor in their current org.
• Triston Casas to the Nats. book it

Tim Dierkes

• There are some, like Keith Law, whose list is entirely about what he would give to the player.  Ours is almost entirely about what we expect the market to give, but certainly our “man I would not do this” creeps in a bit.
• We have been doing this for 20 years.  Every year I think there are fewer GMs on whom we can pin our “bad” FA contracts.  Which means they’re just gonna happen less, as we saw with Alonso last winter

Steve Adams

• I think in general, we’re also kind of conditioned to think at least loosely in the same vein as today’s front offices. We sit and stare at this stuff all day everyday for years on end. In 2009, I probably would not have been on the “Hell yeah pay Dylan Cease and Devin Williams despite terrible ERAs” team, but now it’s more, “Oh I can totally see why teams would completely disregard the ERA and pay for future projection.”Maybe they won’t with those two specifically, but just using them as examples.

  There are still times where we have to plug our nose and pick someone to get paid even though we’d never personally do it. Sometimes those are right. (Madison Bumgarner)

  Sometimes, we predict a long-term deal for Pete Alonso much to our own chagrin, and then we end up wishing we’d have just predicted the short-term deal we all thought he was going to have to take.

cap

• I don’t really understand why a salary cap is such a huge issue for the union. It’s true that it would limit the megadeals, like Ohtani’s, Soto’s and perhaps Tucker’s this offseason, but if it’s coupled with much higher minimum salaries and stronger incentives for the low-spenders to increase spending, then it’s not obvious to me that a salary cap would be harmful to most players. A significant raise in minimum salary alone would be very impactful for many players, even if it doesn’t matter too much to the superstars.

Tim Dierkes

• Please don’t take this response as condescending, that’s not my intention.  Sometimes it is hard to convey tone in a live chat.  So let me start there
• I have an opinion that there are two books that are required reading for any salary cap talk (no idea if the questioner has read them of course)
• One is Marvin Miller’s book.  $14 on Amazon.  The other is John Helyar’s Lords of the Realm
• That history, of why the MLB has a strong union and how that came to be at least up until the 1994 strike, I think is crucial in understanding the union stance on a cap
• Your points are not wrong in that perhaps there could be a system that keeps the player pool of revenue the same and transfers some from superstars to young guys or the rank and file. I think it’s a trust issue more than anything.  Will the players’ % of revenue then move backward over the next few CBAs?  Will teams include all relevant revenue in an honest way?
• When I started MLBTR, I did not know who Marvin Miller was at all.  Ya gotta start there I think.

Fat Guy

• I see the Twins signing Tucker for league minimum but he gets a lifetime of free Juicy Lucy’s. Think he’d take that deal?

Steve Adams

• Not a ton to add — and not sure if Tim will keep going here

Tim Dierkes

• what even is that
• we’re gonna wrap at 11, so couple more

Q

• This one’s for Tim – why did you select the Cubs for Imai? How do you think he could fit in their rotation? And for both you and Steve – what are realistic expectations for his first year in MLB?

Steve Adams

• But real quick, once the cap is in, it’s in. The league will spend every subsequent negotiation session trying to tighten the vice and shrink the players’ piece of the pie. It might start out OK, but deteriorate quickly. Josh Erickson, who runs our hockey site, was talking about that a lot at our last meetup
• Tim, c’mon — a juicy lucy is a stuffed cheeseburger. Come to Minnesota. You’re like a 45-minute flight or 6-hour drive away

Tim Dierkes

• I picked Imai for the Cubs bc they have a strong Japanese presence, he’s younger than other FA starters, he can add some velo to the rotation, and you can dream on him becoming a #2. Whether they feel that way I have no idea
• hmm first season…150 innings, sub-4 ERA, 25 K%?

Steve Adams

• Imai has the widest range of opinions on basically any of the prominent NPB names who could (we still don’t 100% know he’s being posted) come over. I frankly have zero clue what to expect. He’s the hardest thrower in NPB. I’ve seen plenty of “He’s No. 2 SP!” reports and also talked to a scout who said his breaking stuff won’t miss bats and he’s a 4th starter or high-leverage reliever
• I’m going to take one question here and give a very simple answer
• (Tim has been selecting them this whole time)

JT

• Didn’t a certain writer in here call Madison Bumgarner a third starter a couple months before he signed that massive deal and got all kinds of hate for it? Hmmmm

Steve Adams

• Please actually be Jeff Todd
• That is all.

Tim Dierkes

• if there’s one thing we can all agree on, it’s that we miss Jeff Todd

Steve Adams

• If so, hey buddy. Miss you. Text or email us some time.(Back to Tim selecting questions)

Tim Dierkes

• I don’t know how you even found that, there are a million questions in the queue

Steve Adams

• I adore Jeff Todd

ERS

• As a Sox fan, I’m a bit confused where the high demand for Bregman will come from. He’s an aging player, not an elite hitter, and has limited power. I’d bring him back for something like 4 years/110M, but anything beyond that will end up being quite a bad deal, I think. I am pretty concerned he will fall off a cliff offensively, like Arenado. Granted, he has better contact skills than Arenado, but Arenado also had much more raw power.

Tim Dierkes

• last one!
• Umm yes, I definitely get that. we are assuming he has upped his value a bit since last winter. I don’t see the Cubs in on him, and can easily see the Tigers doing something else.  Red Sox, Jays, not quite sure who else is bidding here. I did the contract anyway in picking “the field” in a sense, but I get it.

Steve Adams

• Almost all major FA contracts end up being bad deals. To sign an in-demand free agent, you are inherently saying you will pay him more than the rest of the market deems wise.Bregman is a good defensive third baseman with elite contact skills, above-average power and (thanks to a somewhat resurgent walk rate in ’25) quality on-base skills.

  He is also in the Kyle Schwarber/Eric Hosmer mold of “everyone absolutely loves this person, and his teammates would run through a wall for him” clubhouse mold. That sort of thing gets overstated at times, but with specific players it’s very clear that teams will absolutely pay more for the leadership.

  I also just think he’s a pretty safe 3-WAR floor for the next few years and disagree that Arenado had more raw power. Arenado has never hit the ball hard. Below-average hard-hit and exit velos every year.

• Granted, that’s also true of Bregman, but not to the same extent.
• He was huge in the first half, pre-quad injury as well, and think he answered a lot of doubts that clouded his market last time around. Plus no QO this winter.

Tim Dierkes

• I know Steve would make some good points there.
• That’s a wrap for this chat.  I genuinely enjoyed seeing all these questions and answering as many as we could.  Here’s to a wild and fun offseason!

Steve Adams

• Seconded
• Thanks for the discourse and for the support. We’re so lucky to do what we do. Hoping for a great offseason!

Nido

• Could Nido have earned a one year MLB contract rather than sign with the Tigers for triple A?  Seems like a good player

Mark P

• Nido is a career backup at best.  He clearly seems ok with his situation in Detroit even if it’s being the third man on the depth chart.  Taking an early contract now and giving himself peace of mind over the offseason might also be preferable to having to grind out months of waiting and seeing before finally landing another minors deal months later

IMissHelton

• Do the Rockies keep dragging their feet through the offseason? Most other teams have hired their GM/manager tandem for the future while the Rox are still “mulling their options”

Mark P

• Remember, this is seemingly the first time Dick Monfort has ever had a real GM search, after just promoting from within for the other two hires of his ownership tenure.  Makes sense that it might take a bit longer than usual, though given how much the new GM will have to do with overhauling the Rockies, every offseason day is critical.

Wisconsin O’s

• Any chance the O’s sign a big rh bat > Bo B? Please please say yes.

Mark P

• Bichette isn’t a fit on a team already loaded in the infield, and I don’t expect the Orioles to spend at the highest ends of the free agent market.  But, they should be adding some kind of righty balance to the lineup.

Mike B

• Since the trade deadline, I have had this idea of the Phillies trading Nick Castellanos (plus a mid-level prospect) to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds (the advanced metrics seem to suggest Reynolds down season was just some bad luck, as he was still in line with his career numbers for Barrel Rate, XBA, XSLG, and XWOBA – among others). Essentially, I am banking on Pittsburgh wanting to be as cheap as possible (not a bad bet with that ownership group) and saving them $50ish million in the long term. Can you please just tell me I’m crazy so I can stop considering this as a possibility?

Mark P

• While I don’t doubt that the Pirates might deal Reynolds under the right circumstance, this particular move doesn’t make any sense for them.  Pittsburgh should be trying to add hitting, not take on a limited player like Castellanos who seems to be on the downswing.

Chaim Bloom

• Where do you see me trading donovan to?

Mark P

• I covered all things Donovan in a “looking for a trade match” post earlier this week.  Long story short, he is a reasonable fit on at least half the league, so it’s hard to pick a particular top suitor out of a very large field at this point

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/looking-for-a-match-in-a-brenda…

Padres

• If they hire Puljols will Niebla leave?

Mark P

• Only Niebla would know the answer to this question, though he is under contract for 2026.  I doubt that the Padres would want to lose him as pitching coach, and one would imagine Pujols/Hundley/whoever would also want to keep Niebla in the fold.

  I noted this in a post the other day, but it kind of works against Niebla’s candidacy that the Padres might just prefer him as the pitching coach.  Since if he’s elevated to manager, then the team suddenly has another big hole to fill on the coaching staff.

• Now, being manager obviously doesn’t mean that Niebla can’t still speak with the pitchers or give advice.  But the Padres might prefer the “if it ain’t broke…” approach

B Han

• Seems like one of the most logical trades this offseason will be Castellanos for Arenado, with maybe a few minor prospects switching teams. Your thoughts?

Mark P

• While Arenado would be more helpful to the Phillies than Castellanos, the 2026 version of Nolan Arenado doesn’t seem to be too likely of a boost for a team with World Series aspirations.

Natitude

• What are your thoughts on the Nationals going so young in their hires for the front office and head coach?

Mark P

• It made me feel old, haha

  Washington’s clearly looking for some fresh perspectives, perhaps with the idea that Rizzo/Martinez were too old-school in their approaches.  Time will tell if the changes work out, since Toboni has a lot to do to get the Nats on track.

Mike Maddux

• Do you know any extra details on why he chose an organization like the Angels? This team is in total dysfunction so I’m curious why he would leave a situation like Texas that doesn’t seem to have any dysfunction.

Mark P

• Your guess is as good as mine.  It’s strange to think that Maddux might immediately have more job security than Kurt Suzuki in Anaheim, given Suzuki’s unusual one-year contract.

deGrom

• Do the Rangers try to move deGrom this winter? How much of the contract would they have to eat? Who might bite?

Mark P

• DeGrom is owed $38MM in 2026 and $37MM in 2027, plus there’s a club option for 2028 on a value TBD.  That works out to a $37.5MM tax number for DeGrom, since remember that a traded contract has a tax value based on the AAV remaining on the deal (not the original total value of the deal).
• That’s a high enough tax figure to scare some teams off, to say nothing of DeGrom’s injury history and age.  The counter, of course, is that DeGrom is still a frontline ace if healthy, so it’ll be interesting to see how negotiations could work out or if Texas would be willing to eat anything of the contract.

  There’s also deGrom’s no-trade clause, so this might be a moot point entirely if he doesn’t want to leave Arlington.  The Rangers are trying to both balance the budget and still win in 2026, so while there’s some payroll logic in trading deGrom and selling high, it does leave another hole in their rotation

Im a Werewolf Baby

• Progressive field benefits lefties, but Cleveland’s system is ALL lefties. How have they not balanced out their system? Delauter, Bazzana, Ralphy, Manzardo, Bo, Kwan, Valera, Ingle, etc. Half your games are away and you can’t beat elite lefties in the playoffs with a lineup of all lefties. Has this been a systemic failure of hitting development/approach?

Mark P

• Teams draft for best talent available, without much or any regard to handedness.  In theory, the Guardians can always trade from this list or obtain a RHH elsewhere to get more balance in the big league lineup

Masataka

• Where am I opening day ‘26?

Mark P

• Boston.  More seemingly “untradable” contracts than Yoshida’s have been moved over the years, but barring a total salary dump, why would a team make a move to acquire him?

Chris

• Do the Dbacks sign one or two starters this offseason.  Thoughts on who?

Mark P

• Arizona’s got enough invested in its rotation that someone like Merrill Kelly might be about as high as they’re willing to go in rotation spending.  Acquiring another SP via trade is also a possibility.

Cactusflair

• Do you see the Cardinals potentially non-tendering Lars Nootbaar after his recent double heel surgery

Mark P

• Nope.  Nootbaar is a trade asset either this winter or at the 2026 deadline once he gets healthy, so the Cards won’t cut him loose for nothing.

The Hamm’s Bear

• Do you think the Giants will try to move Jung-Hoo Lee for Pitching? Say of the Joe Ryan variety?

Mark P

• Obtaining Lee doesn’t seem to fit with what the Twins are trying to do (i.e. cut payroll and rebuild).  But, if the Giants are willing to dig deep into their prospect depth chart, Ryan is a possibility, except clubs with better farm systems will have an edge in bidding wars

Cool Names Matter

• I don’t understand Boston signing Schwarber. You’d be paying his and Yoshida’s contract for him to DH. I think they need to be pot-committed to Yoshida at this point – for better or worse.

Mark P

• $36MM remains on Yoshida’s contract.  That’s not a ton of money for a wealthy team like the Red Sox to just eat in releasing him, since it’s very clear he’s the odd man out of the roster mix.

  The questions about how Schwarber ideally fits into Boston’s roster are mitigated by the fact that a) it’s Kyle Schwarber, and b) his power absolutely makes the Sox a better team

Jason

• Who makes more sense at 3B than Suarez for the  Red Sox if Bregman leaves?

Mark P

• Marcelo Mayer, assuming Story remains as the SS and the Sox don’t go with Mayer at 2B
• This isn’t to say that the Sox might not consider someone like Suarez, but finding a regular lineup spot for Mayer is a priority

paul engle

• although the dodgers may win the world series bats like mookie betts max muncy and soeewhat tommie edmond do the dodgers make a run for a really good quality outfielder

Mark P

• OF definitely seems like an offseason priority in Los Angeles.  Can’t rule out a pursuit of a big fish like Tucker, or maybe even something bold like exploring Teoscar Hernandez trades

Mariners

• What percentage chance do you see us resigning naylor?

Mark P

• In a nod to Jerry Dipoto, about 54%
• (While that answer was tongue in cheek, it might actually be true.  Seattle loves Naylor and wants to keep him, but he’ll get lots of attention from other teams around the league, so it could be about a coin flip.)

Addition not subtraction

• The Tigers should be looking to add a #2 SP not trade away an Ace SP for the ‘26 & ‘27 seasons.

Mark P

• Skubal is only controlled through 2026 but I agree with you.  Having a first-rate ace is such a rarity that the Tigers should be viewing 2026 as an all-in type of season.  Trading Skubal would ruin a lot of the momentum this team has built over the last two seasons.

Cubs fan

• the Cubs should have some payroll flexibility.  Do you see them making a big move.  If so, pitching or hitting?

Guest

• Just asking about general activity for the Cubs, what players/type of players do you think they will target this offseason?

Mark P

• I see Chicago spending relatively big on a starting pitcher or a notable position player, and then swinging a trade to obtain whichever of the SP/notable position player they don’t sign.

  The Cubs seem to be working under self-imposed payroll restrictions that keep them from shopping in the upper tier of free agency. But, the team has been willing to open the wallet to a certain extent on particular player.  Given their past deals with Suzuki and Imanaga, I wonder if any of Imai/Okamoto/Murakami would be on Chicago’s radar, and if so, does that make Shaw an expendable trade chip.

Tim

• What’s your thoughts on teams hiring managers with little to no coaching experience? Seems like a trend the past couple of seasons.

Mark P

• Track records as a manager/coach aren’t absolutely necessities to being a manager.  Frankly, getting some fresh faces and fresh ideas into the dugout is a better idea in some cases than hiring some retread skipper.

  To use someone like Vogt as an example, he was already a player who was “a coach on the field” for most of his career anyway, so it made for an easy transition.  That’s the gold standard teams are trying to achieve with these less-experienced hires.  Whereas the Giants and hiring Vitello is a step beyond that, since Vitello (as accomplished as he is in college) has never been involved in an MLB clubhouse before

Marlin fan

• What do you see is doing this offseason? Are we going to actually add or still subtract

Mark P

• The Marlins will be looking to build on what they have, though I’d be surprised if they were particularly aggressive on the trade front (and shocked if they spent notable money in free agency).

  Bendix and ownership are more apt to look at the -89 run differential than they are at the 79 wins.

JDB

• Would a trade centered around W Abreu for Issac Paredes work? Play Paredes at 1B and resign Bregman?

Mark P

• Not a true 1-for-1 deal, but yeah, Abreu-for-Paredes in some kind of package makes some sense for both teams.

Foxy

• Yankee fans seem down on Volpe, but he played through a torn labrum, which seems to be an obvious culprit for his down year.   Do you see him having a bounce back year?  Do you think he will be traded?  I don’t get why many teams insist on playing their injured players instead of just putting them on the DL.

Mark P

• The problem with viewing Volpe as a bounce-back candidate is that what exactly is he bouncing back towards?  His 2025 hitting numbers were about the same as his previous career numbers when healthy.  Obviously it’s fair to assume better health will get his defense back on track, but Volpe has yet to show much of anything at the plate over three years in the majors.

  As I’ve written before, I don’t see the Yankees cutting bait on Volpe entirely.  But, his absence at the start of 2026 opens the door for the team to start thinking about alternatives, whether that’s seeing what Caballero can do or just keeping Volpe/Caballero as pure placeholders until George Lombard is ready

Brian

• Do you really believe Schwarber can get 5yrs on FA market?

Mark P

• His numbers were so good this year and he is such a beloved figure around the game that five years seems plausible.  The Phillies will go above and beyond to try and keep him, so if the rest of the market is only willing to go as high as four years, the Phils will likely stretch to five

Twinkies & choclate milk

• What’s for lunch?

Mark P

• I made the rookie mistake of starting this chat before getting lunch made, so my stomach is rumbling.

Giants Fan

• As a Giants fan I understand starting and relief pitching is a high priority. Do you think the Giants would go after a Bo Bichetter or Kyle Tucker to improve the lineup? Thanks!

Mark P

• Sure, I totally expect SF to at least check in on those two, as they’ve explored so many other big-name free agents in recent years.  Whether they can seal the deal with either remains to be seen — in Bichette’s case in particular, the Giants would only be offering him the 2B job.

Ms fan

• Will there be any payroll flexibility or is this going to just be another cheap offseason?

Mark P

• Dipoto recently said that the starting payoll for 2026 will be around $166MM, so that gives Seattle around $34MM to spend this winter, plus potentially more at the deadline if the M’s are contending as expected.

  Now, to be clear, Dipoto didn’t mention any specific numbers — I’m extrapolating based on his broad comments about spending at the same level as in 2025.  Given how ownership gave Dipoto less than expected in offseason payroll space a couple of years ago, we shouldn’t be assuming that $34MM-ish in spending capacity is in any ways a done deal.  But, you would think that after a successful season and a long playoff run that brought some extra revenues in, ownership is more open to spending to keep the gravy train rolling.

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/mariners-aiming-for-roughly-166…

Jim

• Anything you can say about the A’s?

Mark P

• They’ve done a nice job of rebuilding their lineup, but a lot of work needs to be done on the pitching side.  Those efforts will be trickier given their ballpark situation for the next two years.

Astros fan

• Chances the astros sign cease?

Mark P

• Doubt this happens

Bravos

• What should the Braves be looking at to upgrade and get back to contention?

Mark P

• The middle infield, bullpen, and at least one more starting pitcher.  It would also help immensely if Riley and/or Harris started hitting more consistently again.

DC Fan

• Why do people keep arguing for the Nationals to trade Gore and Abrams?  Do they want to rebuild perpetually?

Mark P

• Gore is controlled through 2027, and Abrams through 2028.  The logic is that since it doesn’t seem like the Nationals will be in contention within the next 2-3 years, the club is better served in the long run by trading one or both of these players now in order to restock the system.

Fans

• What percentage of fans rooting for Blue Jays? Not counting Dodger or Blue Jay fans.

Mark P

• My perception is that baseball fans in general are rooting for Toronto, whether due to the novelty or just because they’re tired of the Dodgers

Guest

• Are the Dodgers likely to seriously pursue Kyle Tucker or are they going to be wary of the potential financial consequences of what may come from the probable 2027 lockout?

Mark P

• The Dodgers will cross that bridge when they come to it, in terms of what a new CBA may or may not change about baseball’s business.

Scott in Mongolia

• Lots of teams are “prioritizing pitching”, but who honestly do you think might sign one of the top FA starters?

Mark P

• The Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mets all come to mind immediately.

Mariners

• What chance is Randy, Luis and JP all back this year?

Mark P

• While one can never rule out a bold Mariners trade, my guess is that all three are still in Seattle on Opening Day.  My perception is that the M’s feel they’re already really close, and want to reinforce their core group rather than trade someone away from it to address another need.

Okamoto

• So I am replacing Pete Alonzo on the Mets most likely then?

Mark P

• “Most likely” is a reach.  But, the Mets have a history of pursuing and landing top Japanese players, and as noted earlier, I think Alonso won’t be back in 2026

Sean D

• Do you believe the Twins will trade both Ryan and Lopez this offseason?

Mark P

• More inclined to say one is dealt, but not both.

Mets

• The Mets need a lot of pieces. Is next year realistic or too many holes to fill in one offseason?

Mark P

• As we’ve seen with the Blue Jays and countless other examples, teams can turn things around in pretty quick fashion as long as they have some real talent already in place.  The Mets certainly have their share of starpower, so a return to contention in 2026 is absolutely possible (or even plausible)
• lol, I meant to write the word “likely” there, not “plausible.”

A Coors on the Rox

• will Colorado hire a GM before free agency begins? Seems like their GM will be at another disadvantage by not being in place but I guess they’ll be rebuilding no matter what

Mark P

• The new GM/PBO will first be focused on hiring a new manager, but you’re right….I don’t think courting free agents is going to be high on Colorado’s list of offseason plans

RaymondReddington

• Verlander reuniting with the tigers, good idea?

Mark P

• Sure!

Dana Brown

• Could you see the Astros trading Christian Walker for a SP…then turning around & signing Pete Alonso for 1B? Heyman has linked Houston to Polar Pete.

Mark P

• The problem is, Walker is owed $40MM over the next two seasons and is coming off a rough year at both the plate and in the field. He’s not the easiest player in the world to trade.

  In this scenario where the Astros trade Walker and then sign Alonso, there’s a complication in that you’d need to find a 1B-needy team that is also not willing to go for Alonso, or Naylor, or Okamoto, or Murakami, etc.

That Baseball Fan

• Please tell us who you think will win tonight and why.

Mark P

• As a Blue Jays fan, I’m in a weird Schrodinger’s Cat scenario at the moment — today will either be the greatest or worst-ever day of my baseball fandom, with no in-between.  This month of playoff baseball has left me watching tonight’s games with frayed nerves….but I think the Jays will pull it off.
• And on that note, it’s time to wrap the chat.  Hope everyone enjoys Game 7, and there’s a lot to look forward to in a very busy upcoming week on MLBTR as the offseason gets underway.
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