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Starting Pitchers Linked Entering 2011

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Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley and John Danks all went to arbitration for the first time before last season and all settled for contracts in the $3-4MM range. The four pitchers went to arbitration again this offseason and settled for contracts within the $5.75-$6.3MM range. A year from now, they will become points of reference for the class of pitchers just behind them (those currently entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible players). Here's a list of pitchers who could be compared to the quartet above after the 2011 season:

  • Mike Pelfrey, $3.925MM in 2011 - Pelfrey already has a tremendous amount of big league experience and a fourth consecutive season of 30-plus starts could push his 2012 asking price past the $6.28MM Billingsley will earn in 2011, especially considering Pelfrey's high 2011 salary. Pelfrey doesn't have particularly impressive strikeout numbers or ERAs, however, which will help the Mets keep the right-hander's salary in check.
  • Dallas Braden, $3.35MM in 2011 - Garza was working from the same base salary in 2010 and he earned a $2.6MM raise after logging 204 2/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in the AL East with a 2.4 K/BB ratio. If Braden wants to match Garza's raise, he'll have to earn it with another big year.
  • Jair Jurrjens, $3.25MM in 2011 - Jurrjens is well-positioned to ask for a salary in the $6MM range next year if he returns to his 2008-09 level of productivity.

Guthrie, Garza, Billingsley and Danks all had relatively healthy, productive seasons in 2010, which kept their 2011 salaries within a $600K range. A poor performance would have disrupted the pattern and the same applies to this year's class. They have to pitch well and stay healthy to earn raises to the $6MM range. Meanwhile, others will have the chance to prove they belong in the same discussion as Pelfrey, Jurrjens and Braden if they have big years.

  • Phil Hughes, $2.7MM in 2011 - Hughes, who has just one full season as a Major League starter, is starting from a lower base salary than the others, so he'd likely need a standout season to approach $6MM in 2012.
  • Brandon Morrow, $2.3MM in 2011 - Morrow doesn't have the bulk numbers his peers do, so he's at a disadvantage. But he has flashed dominant stuff and if he continues pitching the way he did from June on last year, he could justify asking for a larger-than-usual raise.

Other starters, including Edinson Volquez and Kevin Slowey, are also entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible pitchers, but raises to the $6MM range seem extremely improbable given their current salaries and career numbers. The same goes for super two players Armando Galarraga, Kyle Kendrick, Ross Ohlendorf and Luke Hochevar.

Felix Hernandez Remains Unavailable

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Though the Mariners field occasional inquiries about the availability of their ace, GM Jack Zduriencik told Jon Heyman of SI.com that he has no interest in trading Felix Hernandez.

"He's not going anywhere,'' Zduriencik said. "We've got him. We'll keep him. We're not going to move him.''

Zduriencik says the Mariners are not about to consider trading Hernandez, since they’re trying to build a winner around their top starter. Hernandez, who allowed one run in 2 2/3 innings in his spring debut today, can block trades to ten teams and says he hopes to continue his career in Seattle (his no-trade list is composed of high-revenue teams to boost leverage). The 24-year-old is under team control through 2014 and will earn a base salary of $68MM over the course of the next four years.

The Yankees are on the right-hander’s list, though he appears to be open to playing for them. GM Brian Cashman called to express interest earlier in the winter, but Zduriencik said the sides haven’t talked about a Hernandez trade in months. “We'd be foolish to move him,'' Zduriencik said.

New York Notes: Mets, Piazza, Yankees, Aceves

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Eight years ago today, the Yankees signed Ramon Ramirez to a minor league contract after winning his rights via the posting system with a $350K bid. Ramirez, then 21, had been with the Hiroshima Carp, appearing in just two games with them from 2002-2003.

Here's some links from the Big Apple…

  • Bud Selig briefly spoke to SI.com's Jon Heyman (Twitter link) about the Mets' ownership and dire financial situation. "We're in unchartered waters. I talk to Fred (a lot), we just have to hope it works out," said the commissioner. The team is said to be seeking another loan on top of the $100MM it's already been granted by the league.
  • Mike Piazza is helping coach Team Italy this spring, and he told ESPN New York's Adam Rubin and Newsday's David Lennon that he would like to own a team someday, but not necessarily the Mets (Twitter links). When asked if he's been contacted by anyone about owning a club, Piazza replied "I can't confirm or deny."
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe that he doesn't believe he'll be able to acquire a starter before the Opening Day, and perhaps not until June. "Normally anything of quality doesn't become available until after the June draft," said Cashman. "That's why you try and get as much as you can get accomplished in the winter. I know New York doesn't handle patience very well. But I'm from Kentucky, so it's a little easier for me to deal with."
  • Cashman also spoke to Abraham about why the Yankees non-tendered Alfredo Aceves, who eventually signed with the Red Sox. "I offered him a minor league contract, that was it. I wasn't going to do anything more than that," said the GM. "Because of the back issue, we could not give him [a Major League contract]. He was throwing off the mound for us and he always hit a wall. So we ultimately continued to fail throughout the entire process to get him off the DL and active. He had a lot of success for a period of time, but then ultimately we'd had to take steps back and we'd have to shut him down and re-do the treatment."

Gammons On Prospects, A’s, Kalish, Iglesias

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Peter Gammons appeared on WEEI's Minor Details podcast to discuss the value of a deep minor league system, the difficulty in finding power hitters, and, of course, the Red Sox.  WEEI's Alex Speier has the partial transcript, and here are some of the highlights…

  • The value of top prospects, Gammons notes, is higher than ever before since teams are realizing that it isn't cost-effective to sign free agents when those older players are entering a decline phase.  Dealing for a star player in his prime is now the preferred option for a team like Boston that has a strong minor league system.  “Having three really good prospects and getting Adrian Gonzalez so they won’t have to pay him past the age of 35, I think that’s part of it," Gammons said.
  • To wit, Gammons believes the Yankees will forego trying for a free agent pitcher and instead use their own deep minor league system to acquire a pitcher like Brett Anderson or Gio Gonzalez "if Oakland doesn’t get off to a really good start."  I'm not sure I agree with Gammons on this one.  It's hard to believe the A's would deal Anderson or Gonzalez for anything short of a totally absurd offer, be it from the Yankees or anyone.
  • Shortstop Jose Iglesias and outfielder Ryan Kalish are "without question" going to be regulars for Boston in 2012.  This puts them right on track to succeed incumbents Marco Scutaro and J.D. Drew, who are both in the last year of their contracts.
  • Theo Epstein told Gammons before the 2005 draft that drug testing was going to create "a new game over the next five to 10 years," and then the Sox drafted Jacoby Ellsbury in the first round.  Gammons notes that Boston has yet to develop a consistent power hitter in Epstein's regime, aside from Kevin Youkilis (who was drafted by former Sox GM Dan Duquette).

New York Notes: Izzy, Crawford, Perez, Montero

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One year ago today, the Mets signed Kiko Calero, who was coming off of a season in which he posted a 1.95 ERA with 10.4 K/9 for the Marlins. Calero never pitched for the Mets and the team released him in May. Here are today's New York notes…

  • Jason Isringhausen will retire if he doesn't make the Mets' roster this spring, the veteran reliever tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  • Carl Crawford didn't think the Yankees had much interest in him this winter, and Brian Cashman confirmed as much to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.  Crawford "didn't mesh with what we had here and my need for starting pitching" and while Cashman is a Crawford fan, "I've got someone I'm excited about in Brett Gardner, who's $142MM less."  (both Twitter links)
  • With Chris Capuano and Chris Young in line to win rotation spots, it all but confirms that the Mets will release Oliver Perez, says ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin.
  • Jesus Montero appears to have an excellent chance of winning the Yankees' backup catcher job, since Francisco Cervelli will miss at least four weeks with a broken foot. Yankees GM Brian Cashman says he has no interest in delaying Montero's arbitration clock by holding him back for the first few months of the season (Twitter link).
  • Before the injury, Chad Jennings of the Journal News reports that the Yankees seem legitimately impressed by Montero's improvement behind the plate. It appeared early on that the Yankees would send Montero to the minors to play every day, but as ESPN.com's Buster Olney explains, Montero has become a better, more dedicated catcher and remains a force at the plate.
  • Francisco Rodriguez told Newsday's David Lennon that he wants to do "double" this year in order to regain the confidence of Mets fans after a trying 2010 season. Rodriguez repeated that he isn't worried about the 2012 option that vests at $17.5MM if he finishes 55 games this season.
  • Johnny Damon told Peter Botte of the New York Daily News that he was never close to returning to the Yankees, since he isn't ready to be a part-time player and the Yankees have a DH and three outfielders. In a few years, however, Damon says he'll be ready for a part-time role.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

Two Carl Crawford Deals That Could Have Been

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Boston offered Victor Martinez to Tampa Bay for Carl Crawford before the 2010 season, according to Tom Verducci of SI.com. Though the Rays were open to the deal, they told the Red Sox they’d have to pursue other trades to make the swap work. Tampa Bay’s secondary moves fell through, so Crawford and Martinez stayed put.

The Red Sox weren't the only AL East team with interest in Crawford, but they showed considerably more interest than the Yankees. Crawford told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he doesn't think the Yankees were seriously interested in his services last winter when he hit free agency. “If the Yankees want somebody they go out and get them, don’t they?,” Crawford asked. Cliff Lee notwithstanding, he has a point.

Quick Hits: Richard, Crawford, Feliz, Castro

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Links for Friday as Jake Peavy prepares for his first game action since last July. Peavy faces the Angels in Arizona this afternoon…

  • Chris Richard, an outfielder/first baseman who spent parts of five seasons in the majors with the Orioles, Rays, Rockies and Cardinals, has announced his retirement, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times (on Twitter).
  • The Angels offered Carl Crawford $108MM with an $18MM option, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). No wonder the outfielder accepted Boston's $142MM offer.
  • Vernon Wells would have accepted a trade to the Yankees, not just to the Rangers or Angels, according to Heyman (on Twitter).
  • Rangers higher-ups want Neftali Feliz to make the team's rotation, according to Heyman (on Twitter).
  • Astros catcher Jason Castro could miss the entire season, after tearing his right ACL, according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.

Red Sox Notes: Ortiz, Gonzalez, Papelbon

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Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says the Red Sox are the team to beat in 2011 and that's far from the only news out of Boston's Spring Training camp today…

  • David Ortiz told Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes.com that he feels good and is open to negotiating an extension during the season if the Red Sox are interested in one (link in Spanish).
  • Adrian Gonzalez told Rojas that he has no pre-set extension agreement with the Red Sox and that he needs to prove that his shoulder is completely healthy before finalizing a deal with his new team (link in Spanish). Gonzalez denied that the sides are waiting to announce the deal because of baseball’s luxury tax.
  • Ortiz told Joe McDonald of ESPNBoston.com that that he would at least consider playing for the Yankees. "Well, if I don't get signed here, I would play somewhere," Ortiz said. "You know what I'm saying? I'm not saying I would play for the Yankees, but I if I don't have a job, I gotta go somewhere else. As long as I play, right?"
  • But Ortiz tells Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald that he is "not even thinking" about his next contract yet.
  • Jonathan Papelbon says his slider will be a key pitch for him in 2011, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. The closer hits free agency for the first time after the season, though he'll have plenty of competition as the relief market figures to be strong again.

Olney On Zito, Brown, Jeter, Reyes

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As ESPN.com's Buster Olney points out, the Giants would have to have a legitimate alternative in place before dumping Barry Zito and the $64.5MM remaining on his salary. If Jeff Suppan earns a rotation spot or someone else pitches unexpectedly well, the Giants could consider releasing Zito, but until then they can use the durable left-hander. Here's more on the Giants and other notes from Olney:

  • Olney says now is the time for the Giants to dump Zito if they're ever going to do it. The Giants are coming off of a World Series title, so Olney argues that they're working from a position of credibility. They aren't likely to cut Zito, however.
  • As Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News writes, manager Bruce Bochy says Zito is the team's fourth starter and GM Brian Sabean says the team isn't frustrated with him.
  • One talent evaluator says "the athleticism has been taken out" of Domonic Brown's swing.
  • Derek Jeter's relationship with the Yankees will be defined by the team's perception of what's required to win, writes Olney. The team will likely be willing to put Jeter at the bottom of the order or switch him to another position if his performance declines. 
  • It's for that reason that Jose Reyes could become a solution for the Yankees when he hits free agency after the season.

Quick Hits: Hall, Young, Feliz, Burnett, Buck

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Links for Wednesday night..

  • Longtime major leaguer Juan Castro told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick that he never considered retirement at any point this winter.  The 38-year-old is trying to hook on with the Dodgers in 2011 for what would be his fourth stint with the club.
  • Earlier today, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told versatile Astros veteran Bill Hall that the club was "this close" to signing him, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network.
  • A source close to the Rockies told Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated that the Rangers sought a "very good player" for Michael Young, but didn't elaborate on who that player might be.
  • Some in the Rangers front office feel that Neftali Feliz could develop into the type of starter that would otherwise cost a bundle in a trade, writes T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.
  • Yankees fans have been hard on A.J. Burnett, who is set to earn $16.5MM annually through 2013.  However, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that Burnett's career numbers are not all that different from Boston's Josh Beckett.
  • Outfielder Travis Buck views his arrival in the Indians locker room as a fresh start, writes MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
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