Will Yankees Offer Arbitration To A-Rod?
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus tell us not to expect the Yankees to offer arbitration with Alex Rodriguez and Scott Boras. However, Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman "of course" the Yankees would offer it, because of the two draft picks involved.
Sherman notes that there’s a "very slim possibility" of Rodriguez accepting, and then getting a $30-40MM one-year contract as a result of the hearing. He adds that A-Rod would lose his no-trade clause in this scenario. This would be a great scenario for the Yankees. Rodriguez on any kind of one-year commitment is a sweet deal, and he’d be very trade-able. One year, $40MM is a lot easier to stomach for any team than 10 years, $300MM.
If they do offer arbitration and A-Rod declines (the most likely scenario), the Yankees will hope for one of the teams picking 16th-30th in next June’s draft to sign him. That could be the Cubs, Tigers, Mets, Angels, or Red Sox. In those cases the Yankees get that team’s first-round pick. On the flip side, it would not be preferred if the Dodgers, Giants, or any other team picking 1st-15th signs him. Those picks are protected.
Interesting A-Rod side note: one GM surveyed by Jerry Crasnick predicted A-Rod would end up with the Orioles.
Rosenthal’s Latest: A-Rod, Posada, Cameron
Ken Rosenthal is back with a column loaded with rumory goodness. Rosenthal’s column is like a drug.
- Rosenthal doesn’t think the Red Sox will just ignore the availability of Alex Rodriguez, especially if someone lures Mike Lowell away with a five-year offer. Rosenthal suggests a shorter term of five-years, $150MM with option years and opt-outs so that A-Rod could have one more payday as he theoretically approaches Hank Aaron’s record.
- Jorge Posada will receive a "monster offer" from the Mets. While the Mets can’t move him to DH down the road, they can put him at first base. I’ve been saying 4/56, but 5/70 isn’t out of the question apparently. Posada wants a four-year deal, and won’t sign with the Yanks without fielding other offers first. Apparently the Marlins and Blue Jays are also in on him.
- The Nationals may be kicking the tires on big names Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand, but Jim Bowden is also a big Mike Cameron fan. The Nats do seem a reasonable fit.
- The Cubs are also in on Cameron, in addition to Kosuke Fukudome. Rosenthal suggests the Cubs could put Felix Pie in left if they get Cameron.
- Scott Boras client Kyle Lohse is looking for 4-5 years, $10-11MM annually. No surprise there.
- The Royals are looking to add a starter and a reliever, and maybe a closer if they decide to put Joakim Soria in the rotation.
Yankees Aiming Higher Than Crede
According to Ken Davidoff of Newsday, the Yankees aren’t likely to trade for Joe Crede. They’re aiming for bigger fish like Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, and Scott Rolen. Garrett Atkins has been deemed unavailable. Additionally, Kenny Williams hopes to deal Crede relatively quickly and the Yankees are in no rush to fill their third base vacancy. Maybe the Phillies will jump into the fray for Crede.
Lowell at least won’t involve giving up young talent. But there are some questions about how he’d hit away from Fenway. And we’re talking four or even five years to lure him. Beltre would be a fine acquisition and is affordable, though I don’t know why the Mariners would part with him. And the Ms would want at least one blue-chipper, I’d imagine. The Yanks would have to mortgage tons of young talent for Cabrera. Davidoff’s dark horse, Rolen, suddenly makes the most sense. It would be a salary dump and a health risk, but 3/36 isn’t that scary for the Yanks. And it’s less than Lowell would sign for.
Davidoff has a tidbit at the end of his column, a one-liner, that the Yanks are likely to re-sign Mariano Rivera at three years, $40MM soon. I’m surprised Newsday didn’t call more attention to that part.
Andy Pettitte Declines Option
Andy Pettitte has declined his $16MM player option for 2008, but his goal is not to test the free agent market. His choices remain the Yankees or retirement; basically by declining the option now he frees up a roster spot for the team.
As Peter Abraham writes, the Yankees would certainly prefer not to wait several months before hearing Pettitte’s plans. I was almost certain he’d come back for ’08. Still, it would not be the end of the world to enter next season with a rotation of Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy. They’d prefer more depth and will probably add another guy, but what they have now is still better than most teams.
Heyman’s Latest: A-Rod, Atkins, Gagne
SI.com’s Jon Heyman has a new column up. Let’s discuss.
- Alex Rodriguez‘s five possible destinations: Angels, Red Sox, Mets, Giants, Dodgers. That sounds about right. Heyman notes that the Dodgers do not have an advantage because of Joe Torre; he says star players don’t consider managers as a criteria when deciding where to sign.
- Though not mentioned as one of A-Rod’s five potential landing spots, Heyman says the buzz is growing that Mike Ilitch and the Tigers could go after him.
- Heyman says the Rockies will hang on to Garrett Atkins and follow through with the plan to try Ian Stewart at second base. That could mean the end of Kaz Matsui in Colorado.
- How about Eric Gagne to the Tigers? If they are interested, that bodes well for me getting at least 1 of 50 right.
- Johnny Damon for Joe Crede first mentioned in the Chicago Tribune??!! That trade speculation, sir, is MLBTR’s baby. Anyway, Heyman’s source thinks the Yankees could do better for Damon.
Marlins Shopping Miguel Cabrera
This is a promising hot stove season with tons of angles to entertain us. Miguel Cabrera shouldn’t get lost in the shuffle – this is a bona fide 24 year-old superstar, and he’s available via trade.
Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post lists the reasons – Cabrera is entering eight-figure salary territory, and he’s been getting lazy. Capozzi’s teams source says the idea of the Marlins signing Alex Rodriguez has no substance. But they would certainly trade Cabrera if they received a sweet package as they did for Josh Beckett. Translation: Phil Hughes or Clay Buchholz. Joel Sherman’s source says this won’t be an auction – the Marlins will target players and teams and make their demands. You have to imagine Hughes and Buchholz are on that short list. Michael Silverman expects the Red Sox to inquire on Cabrera, among others.
Capozzi also indicates that Dontrelle Willis is likely to stay put.
Rays’ Kazmir May Be Available
The week in hot stove kicks off with a bang: Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a source saying the Devil Rays might listen to offers for ace lefty Scott Kazmir. Kazmir turns 24 in January and carries a 3.64 career ERA despite pitching in the AL East. He’s been particularly tough on the Red Sox (2.66 ERA in 101 innings). You have to think that if the Yankees are entertaining making an offer for Johan Santana, they’d consider Kazmir as well if the Rays would deal within the division.
Sherman notes that Kazmir is under contract for three years as opposed to just one for Santana, which could equate the two pitchers in the marketplace. Erik Bedard, under control for two years, has to be in that group of elite, possibly available southpaws as well. Sherman believes the Rays would seek "multiple high-end pitchers" for Kazmir, who is entering arbitration for the first time this winter. The Yankees could offer a package starting with Phil Hughes, but the Mets don’t seem to have the goods. It would take a pitcher of that nature – Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, Clay Buchholz. Otherwise, why would the Rays consider it?
Sherman also echoes the surprising notion that Tim Lincecum could be had for the right bat. He speculates that the Giants could pursue Carl Crawford or Delmon Young as the return. Hey, our Delmon speculation is catching on!
Sherman indicates that the Twins may be compelled to hold onto Santana, afraid of fan backlash if they also lose Torii Hunter. Meanwhile, another Santana, Ervin, might be had for a bat if the Angels can’t sign Alex Rodriguez. Sherman’s sources say any club in the A-Rod sweepstakes will move slowly in the market because his contract would dictate the team’s available budget.
Also notable from Sherman’s rumor-packed column: teams may wait for the Mitchell Report to come out before engaging in serious talks for Miguel Tejada. I’ve read speculation that MLB could release this report soon as a way of limiting free agent spending. Also, isn’t it about time for Jose Canseco’s next book, which supposedly has "other stuff" on Alex Rodriguez?
Crede For Damon Picking Up Steam
This thing is gaining traction. Buster Olney comments on the idea of a Joe Crede for Johnny Damon swap this morning:
Makes sense in a lot of ways: The Yankees would get the veteran third baseman they need without committing themselves to big dollars, shed Damon’s salary, and the White Sox would solve their third base logjam while adding a center fielder for much less than what the free agent center fielders will get (Damon is owed about $26 million over the next two seasons, and presumably, the Yankees would eat some of that to make a deal happen).
Mark Feinsand also entertains the notion of this trade in today’s column.
Kenny Williams Ready To Deal
This is going to be an incredible offseason, I just know it. This is going to be a hot stove season for the ages. White Sox GM Kenny Williams seems ready to dive right in, starting with the GM meetings on Monday.
Interesting notes from the above-linked Mark Gonzales article:
- Josh Fields‘ position for 2008 will be revealed shortly, which seems to indicate a trade of Joe Crede on the horizon. Fields will end up at third base or left field next year.
- Outfielders Brian Anderson and Ryan Sweeney may be shopped. Anderson is doing a nice job talking his way out of Chicago, and Williams notes that Anderson must be "disappointed over the opportunities he hasn’t maximized." Ouch. Maybe the Marlins will take a flier.
- Gonzales throws down the Crede for Johnny Damon idea I’ve been pushing here repeatedly. This idea is spreading!
Fukudome, Kuroda, Kobayashi Rumors
Here’s a link chock full of rumors involving Japanese ballplayers who might come over to MLB. It’s also loaded with links most of you will not be able to read.
- Masahide Kobayashi, the 33 year-old righthanded closer, will be represented by SFX. Fellow free agents Kerry Wood and Jorge Julio are also using that agency, as far as I can tell.
- Hiroki Kuroda is expected to fill for free agency on Monday. Since there’s no posting fee involved, some have speculated his salary could exceed Daisuke Matsuzaka‘s. Matsuzaka will earn an average of $8.66MM per season during his six-year deal, and he also has a full no-trade clause. The idea of Kuroda earning around $10MM per year jives with earlier remarks from Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider.
- The deadline to fill for free agency in Japan is November 12th. Kosuke Fukudome is still undecided about whether to jump over to MLB. He’ll meet with his current team, the Chunichi Dragons, on Monday. They’re expected to make him an offer. The Hanshin Tigers may also make a play at $20MM over four years, using the money they received from posting Kei Igawa.
- Some reports indicate that the Yankees may be interested in acquiring Kaz Matsui to play second base if they move Robinson Cano to third. Doesn’t seem likely.
Special thanks to Tak Iwanaga for translating.