Rosenthal On Teixeira For Hughes Possibility
Ken Rosenthal has a long article today regarding possible scenarios by which Mark Teixeira becomes a Yankee. Rosenthal says the Yankees scouted the Rangers last week in regards to Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka. The Rangers expect Brian Cashman to have interest in Teixeira, and have been performing due diligence on Phil Hughes and other Yankee farmhands.
Rosenthal’s main point: Hughes is not untouchable, but Teixeira could be traded to the Yankees without him involved. Maybe Jon Daniels surrenders two of his major trading chips in a single blockbuster, giving up Otsuka or Gagne plus Teixeira just to get Hughes. One would be hard-pressed to say that deal does not make the Yankees significantly better in 2007.
If Daniels is going to earn that contract extension, he needs to get another big-market team seriously involved. It would be fantastic to get Boston seriously engaged. The Tigers are another option. But if Daniels comes up with quantity over quality – for example the Rosenthal proposal of Melky Cabrera, Chase Wright, and another prospect – he will have failed.
Helton Hints At Approving Yankee Trade
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post has some quotes from Todd Helton that seem to indicate he’d at least consider approving a deal to the Yankees. Said Helton: "I have never said publicly that I wouldn’t go to any team."
That technically puts the Washington Nationals in play. Just kidding. Renck then asked Helton specifically about the Yankees, and he replied: "They’d have to want me first." He makes a good point. But maybe the urge to play for a winner is getting to Helton; it seems like he’d go to New York if they could work something out.
Helton’s contract remains among the worst in baseball. I don’t know who Michael Moye is, but props to him for negotiating this beast. Helton makes $16.6MM annually through 2010. Then he makes $19.1MM in 2011 and gets a $4.6MM buyout in 2012. Or would Helton require the acquiring team to exercise the $23MM option for 2012 as compensation for allowing the trade?
Back in January, the Rockies wouldn’t pitch in more than $36.6MM. At that point, Helton was owed $90.1MM through 2011 (that assumes no concession for waiving the no-trade). Based on the talks with Boston, the Rockies will pay off about 40% of this thing and not require much in the way of young players in return. The Rockies have already paid Helton about $7.07MM this season. So they’d still probably be open to kicking in $33MM toward Helton’s remaining contract.
An acquiring team would be looking at $57MM for 4.57 seasons of Helton (if he is traded today). That equates to an annual salary just under $12.5MM. If Helton hit the free agent market after this season as a 34 year-old, could he get a four-year, $50MM deal? I believe he could. I’m starting to think a Helton deal may be reached this summer, as his contract is not ridiculous if the Rockies pay 40% of it.
Healey’s Latest
Mark Healey at Gotham Baseball has long been a solid, underappreciated source of inside information. He’s got another Rumor Mill up at his site. My summary follows.
- The Yankees have an eye on big-name 1Bs like Mark Teixeira and Todd Helton. But more realistically, they’re looking at Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena. He’s got the defense, so even if he regresses to a 20 HR bat it’s a nice pickup. Healey’s source believes Tyler Clippard is too much but the Rays like Sean Henn. The Yanks have also inquired about the versatile Ty Wigginton.
- The Reds, Rockies, and others have been scouting the Yankees’ Double A Trenton affiliate. Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Brett Gardner are probably the most desirable players on that roster. Gotham Baseball has previously connected the Yankees to Brian Fuentes and David Weathers. Another reliever the Yankees like is Chad Bradford, though the O’s price may be too high.
- Gotham quotes an NL scout who doesn’t believe the Mets will acquire a starter by trading Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, or Fernando Martinez. That scout believes the return of Pedro will supply the needed boost. Personally, I can see Milledge going.
- Some former Mets on the radar: Brady Clark, Jay Payton, and David Weathers.
- Healey says the Mets sent scouts to look at Randy Winn this weekend. They must not be pleased with Moises Alou‘s progress. As I mentioned earlier, Winn is signed through 2009. He has a full no-trade clause this year. For 2008-09 he can block deals to ten teams.
- The Pirates have some vets to trade, and have contacted the Mets regarding Shawn Chacon and Damaso Marte. Marte is quietly having a fine season with a 1.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Marte earns $2.45MM this year, and $2MM in ’08 with an odd $6MM club option for 2009. He can also earn incentives based on games finished.
Yanks Interested In Hillenbrand
Don’t ask me why, but the Yankees are interested in trading for benched Angels DH Shea Hillenbrand. At $6.5MM with attitude issues and little defensive (plus questionable offensive) value, Hillenbrand is not exactly a hot commodity. I imagine the Angels would not be asking for much and would probably eat some salary.
The Yankees tossed around the idea of signing Hillenbrand last winter, but ultimately decided to go with Josh Phelps and Doug Mientkiewicz. Mientkiewicz may not return until August after wrist surgery. The Yankees have actually been using Miguel Cairo at first base. I don’t care what kind of defense he plays, that ain’t right.
Acquiring Hillenbrand would be odd, because Phelps pretty much is Hillenbrand but cheaper. The Yankees’ offense has been very good, ranking first in the AL in OBP and second in SLG. But upgrading first base would still result in even more runs scored, never a bad thing.
That’s why the Yankees should pursue an actual upgrade. Carlos Pena, Mark Teixeira, Todd Helton, and Dmitri Young could all be options. The expensive guys are obviously long shots. The Yanks could also go after Rich Aurilia or Mark DeRosa as mentioned here. Underachievers/bench guys like Jorge Cantu, Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar, and Ben Broussard may be possibilities as well.
Rosenthal’s Latest Video
Ken Rosenthal has a new video up at FOXSports.com for your viewing pleasure. My summary:
- As you know, Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka are drawing strong interest across baseball. The only team named by Rosenthal is the Yankees, and in a roundabout way. He simply said that the Rangers have been scouting the Yanks.
- Both the Dodgers and Angels would love to add a power-hitting third baseman. The problem is, there’s not much about there. Rosenthal says Troy Glaus, Mike Lowell, and Miguel Cabrera are all currently unavailable. One who might become available and could play third is Miguel Tejada. My own speculation on some possible second-tier trade candidates at third base (some long shots included): Jose Bautista, Mark Reynolds, Chad Tracy, Ty Wigginton, Melvin Mora, and Wilson Betemit.
- Michael Barrett could be on his way out of Chicago, mostly because of his defense. Rosenthal names the Marlins and Rockies as interested parties.
Sheehan On Adam Dunn
Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus gives his analysis on some Adam Dunn trade suitors. And it’s a free article.
Is Dunn really a lightning rod for criticism in Cincinnati? I’d like to see what those who live there think. I feel that in this day and age Dunn is mostly appreciated for his strengths.
Sheehan’s top five fits for Dunn, in order of likelihood, are the Twins, Angels, Yankees, Padres, and A’s. As Sheehan alludes to, Terry Ryan and Bill Stoneman don’t make this type of trade.
What’s more, the Angels would have a serious logjam with Dunn. You don’t move Casey Kotchman off first, leaving the DH and left field spots for Dunn. You’d rotate the DH spot between Dunn and Vlad, and the left field spot between Garrett Anderson, Reggie Willits, and occasionally Dunn. Someone’s losing some playing time in the deal, and Vlad is probably getting less time at DH to rest. Use of Dunn on the field probably compromises the defense. An Anderson injury could make this less of a problem. Another thought: a coworker of mine suggested that the Angels give up some quality prospects for their bat, but force the inclusion of Shea Hillenbrand in the deal. Not a bad idea.
Interesting to note that Sheehan calls Chase Headley unavailable. Not sure if that is based on some inside info. I had speculated yesterday that Headley’s callup could be a showcase.
Sheehan’s idea of the Yankees for Dunn makes a ton of sense, but they would have to assemble a prospect package without any real alluring name. Well, Joba Chamberlain might be somewhat alluring. It sounds like Wayne Krivsky would ask for Robinson Cano though.
Posada Leads Free Agent Catcher Class
If you’re looking for a catcher this winter – and many teams will be – you probably have to put Jorge Posada at the top of the list. His incredible season couldn’t have come at a better time. Here’s the list of possible free agent starting catchers, with their 2008 age in parentheses:
Jorge Posada (36)
Ivan Rodriguez (36) – $13MM club option for ’08
Paul Lo Duca (36)
Michael Barrett (31)
Jason Kendall (34)
When we last checked in on Pudge’s option, Ken Rosenthal said the Tigers were "almost certain" to exercise it. For the sake of argument, let’s say Kendall’s recent resurgence is for real and allows teams to consider him as a starter. That means four available catchers: Posada, Lo Duca, Barrett, and Kendall.
Barrett is the youngster of the group, and before this season began I would’ve ranked him first. But even a biased Barrett fan such as myself must admit that his stock is falling rapidly with the altercations, mental gaffes, and subpar offensive performance.
Despite the power outage, Lo Duca should be a respectable choice for some team not planning to spend $10MM+ a year on a backstop. Posada, though, is where it’s at. He’s showing no signs of age and is the type of player GMs love. And a catcher who can easily post an OPS over .800 is a major asset.
Contract talks with the Yankees from last spring have been tabled as Posada prefers to focus on playing. It seems like both sides want him to finish his career as a Yankee, though there is some uncertainty in Posada’s comments. He’s keeping his options open. I think it will require four years and maybe $48MM.
Plenty of teams would line up for Posada – the Angels, Mets, Phillies, and Astros come to mind.
Scouting The Reds
The chatter regarding Reds’ left fielder Adam Dunn is picking up, and it’s only June 13th. It’s looking more and more like we can add Dunn to our 2008 MLB free agents list, as his 2008 option becomes void with a trade. Ken Griffey Jr. and various other Reds may be in play too.
Five articles referenced Dunn this morning. The Newark Star-Ledger contains just one sentence:
"The Cincinnati Reds, who could be in position to trade reliever David Weathers and slugger Adam Dunn, had a scout at the [Yankees-Diamondbacks] game."
One imagines the Yankees may like a number of additional Reds, including Griffey and Mike Stanton. But the Weathers/Dunn speculation is the most reasonable. The Reds, by the way, have yet to approach Junior about any possible trades. While we know Griffey would probably approve a trade to Atlanta, some real creativity would be required with his contract. And he’d have to be open to playing left field. Buster Olney noted today that the White Sox have at least had internal discussions about acquiring Griffey.
The Dayton Daily News has the scoop on scouts from many teams in attendance at the Reds-Angels game last night: the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Tigers, and more. Actually the article references "Los Angeles" so that could be the Angels too. Any of these clubs could conceivably make room for Dunn. I imagine young pitching is the name of the game for Wayne Krivsky.
Besides the previously named players, Eddie Guardado, Scott Hatteberg, and Kyle Lohse could be on the market. The Reds have a $3MM option for ’08 on Guardado and a $1.85MM club option for ’08 on Hatteberg. Lohse, a Scott Boras client, reaches free agency after this season.
White Sox Won’t Trade For Prospects
White Sox GM Kenny Williams spoke to reporters yesterday, indicating that his phone lines are buzzing but he won’t be trading his future free agents for prospects. Talent for talent is the name of the game, though the Jermaine Dye/Bobby Abreu talks have apparently died.
The Sox are given a meager 1.7% chance to make the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA. And I rounded up. They’re in fourth place, seven games back in the AL Central. They’re in fifth for the wild card, 4.5 games out. If we try this exercise without PECOTA projections, the chances still seem bleak at 4.1%. Using a third method, Elo, the Sox have an 11.2% chance. I’d lean toward the latter; while the competition is fierce, 4.5 games doesn’t seem insurmountable.
Williams is an optimist, which fans have to appreciate. He even mentioned that he’s up for the "rent-a-player scenario." That could mean acquiring even more impending free agents, like perhaps Adam Dunn.
Like all other teams, Williams has almost two months to decide if his team is truly a contender. The worst outcome would be treading water for that time period.
Goldman On A-Rod
Steven Goldman has a well-reasoned column in the New York Sun today discussing why it’s important for the Yankees to trade Alex Rodriguez. Here’s a hint: they need to restock on position players. It’s not about the tabloid stuff or the infamous "hah!" Personally I like the tactic but wouldn’t use "hah." When I played sandlot ball we used to shout "Confusion! Confusion!" over and over when a couple of guys would get under a pop-up. It worked once in a while.
Basically A-Rod is still a marketable superstar, and the Yankees are going to have plenty of holes in the near future. It’d be best not to patch them up with more $15MM guys. James Loney plus Matt Kemp from the Dodgers would be perfect, if Ned Colletti would do it. Rodriguez would have to waive his no-trade and provide a window for an extension, I imagine.
Such a strategy, however, runs counter to the Roger Clemens signing. Once Clemens hits the Majors the team will be in full win-now mode, so it’s important to decide whether to trade Rodriguez very soon.