Cole Hamels Hopes To Be Traded To Contender
Phillies lefty Cole Hamels would prefer to be dealt to a contender, he tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “I want to go to a place where I can win again,” said Hamels. Though he made clear he was not demanding a trade, Hamels did indicate that he wants to play for a winning ballclub, saying “I know it’s not going to happen here.”
Hamels, 31, has represented perhaps the biggest unconsummated trade story of the offseason. With all major arms now signed off of the free agent market, and most teams presumably set to enter camp with their rotations intact, he may well be the only achievable prize left for clubs looking to add an impact starter.
According to Nightengale, the Phillies have continued to work hard to find an acceptable deal. The Padres have dangled a package of Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges, but that was not deemed sufficient by the Philadelphia front office. And the Phils have been unsuccessful in prying their key targets from teams like the Red Sox (who won’t include Blake Swihart), Dodgers (who haven’t offered any of the team’s top four prospects), and Cardinals (who have not agreed to move Carlos Martinez).
Hamels says that he will do his best to prepare for the season in the normal course, and gave no indication that he will do anything other than honor his contract, particularly with camp set to open. “Now that I’m here, I plan on being here for the next six weeks,” said Hamels, explaining that he had kept an eye on rumors over the winter. “I think it would be pretty chaotic if that’s not the case. But it’s out of my control.”
The veteran southpaw says that he crafted his no-trade list by identifying the nine teams he would most want to play for and leaving himself unprotected from those clubs. Only the Yankees and Rangers can deal for him without approval among American League teams, though Hamels notes that he would be “all ears” to the possibility of waiving his no-trade protection were the Red Sox to work out an agreement to acquire him. (He did not address the idea, advanced in some earlier reports, that he might seek inducements, such as a guarantee of his fifth-year option, from a team over which he possesses veto power.)
Rockies Defeat Wilin Rosario In Arbitration
The Rockies have defeated catcher Wilin Rosario in the sides’ recent arbitration hearing, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. Rosario will, accordingly, take home $2.8MM rather than his filing figure of $3.3MM.
Colorado may have been able to sway the panel by pointing out Rosario’s defensive shortcomings and relatively poor 2014, because it drove the price down a fair sight shy of the $3.6MM that MLBTR/Matt Swartz had projected. Rosario has consistently received rather poor defensive marks (see, e.g., Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs), and pitch framing metrics have not been kind (Baseball Prospectus; Stat Corner). That put an even less promising spin on Rosario’s below-average .267/.305/.435 slash, which was good only for a park-adjusted 86 wRC+.
Of course that kind of offensive production is still not bad at all for a catcher. And Rosario, who battled injuries last year, has shown the ability to do much more. Still just 25, Rosario slashed .282/.314/.507 and hit 49 total home runs over just 892 plate appearances from 2012-13.
In addition to saving half a million dollars against the alternative scenario in the binary arbitration decision, Colorado gets the added benefit of holding down Rosario’s earnings for the following two years of eligibility. The slugger will need to earn his playing time this year, though he may be afforded additional turns at bat by slotting in at first base or even the corner outfield.
2016 Free Agent Power Rankings
With the sun setting on the 2014-15 free agent class, it’s time to turn our attention to the 2015-16 group. These players project to become free agents after the 2015 season, unless they sign contract extensions first. A few extensions are likely, but for now the 2015-16 free agent class has no shortage of star power. MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents can be found here.
What exactly are we ranking here? The simplest explanation would be earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. Of course, nothing affects a free agent’s earning power more than his most recent season, so I’ll be updating these rankings monthly.
1. Justin Upton. Upton possesses the profile that most often results in a monster contract: power, youth, and durability. He doesn’t turn 28 until August, so his next team might be able to avoid paying him into his late 30s. The first overall draft pick in 2005, Upton has hit 26 or more home runs in four of his six full seasons, including the last two. He peaked at 31 bombs in 2011, and given his pedigree, there’s an underlying assumption that he’s capable of hitting 35-40. With the December trade to San Diego, Upton must verify his power in a home ballpark where longballs go to die. He’s nothing special defensively; Upton’s chance at Robinson Cano money or better lies in good old-fashioned baseball card stats.
2. Jason Heyward. Upton’s former teammate can challenge his ranking with a big year for the Cardinals. Unlike Upton, Heyward didn’t surrender any potential free agent years through a mid-career extension. The result: Heyward doesn’t turn 26 until August. That’s about as young as a star free agent can reasonably be, given the requirement of six years of Major League service. Heyward seemed destined for MVP awards after he finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting with a great season at age 20. However, he hasn’t been able to repeat his .393 on-base percentage from that season, and he missed large chunks of the 2011 and ’13 seasons due to injuries. Heyward hit 27 home runs in 2012, so he still owns that skill despite hitting just 25 in the two subsequent seasons. More than his offense, Heyward’s value is derived from Gold Glove defense in right field. If he posts another slugging percentage under .400, his free agency will be a litmus test of whether teams will pay superstar money for superstar defense. If he couples that defense with rediscovered 25+ home run power, Heyward could sign the largest free agent contract in baseball history.
3. David Price. This is a very strong crop of free agent starting pitchers at present, but Price is the best. 30 in August, Price won the AL Cy Young award in 2012 and finished sixth in the voting last year. Last year he tossed 256 1/3 total innings with a career-best strikeout rate, while maintaining the excellent control he established in 2013. The only real blemish on his health record is a 47-day DL stint in ’13 for a triceps strain. If he racks up innings this year for the Tigers with another low-3s ERA, he might be able to exceed $200MM without relying on deferred money to get there.
4. Ian Desmond. The Nationals’ shortstop rejected a seven-year, $107MM extension offer during the 2013-14 offseason, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Kilgore reported that the offer was actually only for five additional seasons, and it included deferred money. Desmond, 30 in September, has the potential to exceed $200MM on the open market with another strong season. In terms of wins above replacement, he’s easily been the game’s best shortstop since 2012. Desmond offers the extremely rare combination of power, durability, speed, and solid shortstop defense. However, his contact rate dipped below 70% for the first time in 2014, and a continuation of that trend would affect his earning power.
5. Johnny Cueto. Only Clayton Kershaw‘s brilliance prevented Cueto from winning the NL Cy Young award in 2014. Cueto, who turned 29 last Sunday, posted a 2.25 ERA over 243 2/3 innings last year with a career-best strikeout rate. That was a huge workload, especially since Cueto was limited to 11 starts in 2013 due to a shoulder strain. He missed significant time in 2011 with shoulder issues as well. Cueto can set aside some concerns with a DL-free 2015 campaign. Potential bonus: he could become ineligible for a qualifying offer if the Reds trade him during the season.
6. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann, 29 in May, finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting last year. A few factors put him below Cueto: he doesn’t go particularly deep into games, and he’s generally posted strikeout rates below the league average prior to 2014. That might be nitpicking – Zimmermann has great control and a 3.00 ERA since 2011. He had Tommy John surgery in August 2009 and has avoided the DL since.
7. Alex Gordon. Gordon is an older version of Heyward – an occasionally underpowered corner outfielder who posted a huge WAR last year on the strength of great defense. Gordon still has 39 home runs over the last two seasons, though, so he’s shown more recent pop than Heyward. Gordon, drafted by the Royals directly after Upton in ’05, delayed his free agency by two years with an extension in 2012. As such, he recently turned 31. As Shin-Soo Choo can attest, that’s still young enough to garner a contract well above $100MM. In August, Gordon told Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star he plans to pick up his 2016 player option, which appears to be worth $14MM. If the Royals are willing to double their current franchise record $55MM contract, an extension could be possible, but I don’t think there’s much chance of Gordon simply picking up that player option when it comes due.
8. Zack Greinke. After the 2015 season, Greinke must decide whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM left on his contract. That wouldn’t be worth doing for something similar to the four-year, $75MM contract James Shields just received, but Greinke will be a year younger than Shields was. So far Greinke has a 2.68 ERA in 380 innings in his two seasons for the Dodgers, with his strikeout rate bumping back up in 2014. Another healthy season with an ERA around 3.00 would instill confidence in a potential five-year deal, in which case Greinke would be expected to opt out to try to lock in $100MM+ in new money.
9. Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija, 30, made his first All-Star team in 2014. He posted a 2.99 ERA in 219 2/3 innings for the Cubs and A’s after posting a 4.10 ERA in his previous two seasons as a starter. It was clear that Samardzija’s 2012-13 ERAs were inflated beyond his skill level. He’s a horse who works at 94-95 miles per hour, and he’s never been on the disabled list. A wide receiver at Notre Dame, Samardzija didn’t commit fully to baseball until the Cubs drafted him in ’06. He also spent much of his early big league career as a reliever. The result is less mileage on his arm than any of the pitchers listed above him, even including Zimmermann. He could easily wind up being a better bet for the next five or six years than his rival free agent starters. Samardzija was traded to the White Sox in December.
10. Matt Wieters. Wieters, 29 in May, saw his season end on May 10th of last year due to an elbow issue. The catcher had Tommy John surgery in June and expects to be ready for Opening Day. Will he be able to throw out baserunners? Wieters, who was drafted by the Orioles fifth overall in 2007, also must answer questions about his bat. He slumped to a .704 OPS in 2013, but had a great first month in ’14. Wieters tallied a mammoth 4,600 innings behind the dish from 2010-13, and it’s difficult to say when that workload will catch up to him. Wieters could get a nine-figure contract this offseason, but only if all of these questions are answered with a strong year.
Plenty of other players will be vying to break into our top ten throughout the season, including Ben Zobrist, Yoenis Cespedes, Denard Span, Howie Kendrick, Steve Pearce, Rick Porcello, Mat Latos, Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Chris Davis. You can check out the full 2015-16 free agent list here.
Francisco Rodriguez Seeking $10MM In 2015
Though multiple teams have shown interest in Francisco Rodriguez this offseason, he remains unsigned, with previous reports indicating that he and agent Scott Boras are holding out for a two-year deal. It appears, however, that K-Rod is willing to take a one-year pact, but at a premium price, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that he’s seeking a $10MM contract heading into the 2015 season.
News that Kenley Jansen underwent surgery that would sideline him for eight to 12 weeks spawned immediate speculation that K-Rod (or fellow Boras client Rafael Soriano) could land in Los Angeles. Indications since the announcement of Jansen’s foot surgery, though, are that the Dodgers won’t make a reactionary splash. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted that K-Rod would only be a consideration for the Dodgers on their own terms, and a $10MM commitment hardly seems likely to match that description.
While the notion of Rodriguez seeking a one-year, $10MM contract back in October or November wouldn’t have seemed completely far-fetched — we at MLBTR predicted he’d find a two-year, $14MM deal — it seems difficult to imagine at this juncture. Most teams have spent their offseason budget and have little financial wiggle room. The best chance of Rodriguez finding such a deal would be in the event that another closer lost its closer for a more significant amount of time than the Dodgers currently stand to be without Jansen.
Rodriguez’s reported asking price figures to elicit a collective eye roll from many fans, but it should at least be noted that he did enjoy a very strong bottom-line results in Milwaukee last year. The 33-year-old recorded 44 saves with a 3.04 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate in 68 innings. Many have been quick to criticize his season because he rated below replacement level per Fangraphs’ version of WAR, but that valuation is based on his 4.50 FIP. Baseball-Reference valued Rodriguez at 1.5 wins, and RA9-WAR agreed, valuing him at 1.3 wins. Other ERA estimators such as xFIP (2.91) and SIERA (2.58) feel that Rodriguez was as effective, if not more so than his ERA indicated in 2014. Rodriguez did post the best BB/9 rate of his career last season, and his swinging-strike rate was his best since 2011.
Those positive factors notwithstanding, $10MM is an aggressive goal for a 33-year-old reliever in mid-February, although Boras has pulled off larger feats in previous offseasons. To this point, the Brewers, Blue Jays and now Dodgers have been the teams most often linked to Rodriguez, but barring a drop in asking price, his eventual landing spot may be with a team that doesn’t even have a clear need for a closer at the moment.
Latest On The Dodgers’ Bullpen
The Dodgers will be without Kenley Jansen through at least mid-April and possibly mid-May after their elite closer underwent surgery on his left foot this morning, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has indicated to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick that the front office’s initial plan is to evaluate its in-house alternatives at closer (Twitter link).
Though the team may not ultimately take a reactionary approach, the Dodgers will indeed check in on free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano, tweets Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times. However, Shaikin adds that he feels it’s more likely the Dodgers will add a middle relief option than a closer, considering Jansen figures to miss a maximum of six weeks (barring setbacks) and is suffering from an injury that is not related to his arm.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports seems to agree with the thought that a reactionary move is unlikely, tweeting that it’d be a “shock” to see the team make a desperation move. Signing K-Rod would only happen if Rodriguez were to sign at the Dodgers’ price, Rosenthal notes, and that seems rather unlikely, considering the fact that Rodriguez and agent Scott Boras have reportedly been holding out for a two-year deal.
The Dodgers’ most experienced options to replace Jansen for the early portion of the season include J.P. Howell, Brandon League and Joel Peralta. Of that trio, only League comes with significant closing experience, though there’s no guarantee that that will play a significant factor in the decision. Paco Rodriguez, Juan Nicasio, Chris Hatcher and Pedro Baez represent 40-man options, while non-roster invitees David Aardsma and Sergio Santos have closing experience as well.
Kenley Jansen Out 8-12 Weeks Following Foot Surgery
The Dodgers have announced that standout closer Kenley Jansen has undergone foot surgery that comes with an eight- to 12-week timeline for recovery. Via Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts, the Dodgers’ PR team released the following statement:
“This morning at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles, Dodger pitcher Kenley Jansen underwent surgery to remove a growth from a bone in his left foot. This was discovered when Kenley reported discomfort while running last week. A subsequent X-Ray, MRI and CT scan showed the problem in the 5th metatarsal of his left foot. The surgery was performed by Drs. Earl Brien and David Thordarson under the direction of Dr. Neal ElAttrache.
Jansen will be on crutches for about 10 days and then a boot for 3-4 weeks. How he progresses during the rehab process will determine his return to competition, but it is expected to be approximately 8-12 weeks.”
An eight-week recovery would mean that Jansen is ready to go come April 14, whereas a 12-week recovery would keep him shelved through May 12. While the Dodgers possess a deep roster that many consider to be among the most talented in the game, the loss of Jansen for upwards of six weeks of the regular season would be a significant blow, particularly considering the fact that the bullpen is considered to be an area of weakness.
Joel Peralta, Paco Rodriguez, J.P. Howell and Brandon League all seem like locks to open the year in the Dodger ‘pen, while other candidates include Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez and Juan Nicasio. The Dodgers have also brought in David Huff, Sergio Santos, Erik Bedard and, most recently, David Aardsma as non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Among that group, Santos and Aardsma do have closing experience, though neither seems likely to go from minor league signee to primary ninth-inning option for manager Don Mattingly.
The news of Jansen’s injury makes yesterday’s report that the Dodgers are seeking to add another bullpen arm more logical. Among the free agent options for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Farhan Zaidi and VP Josh Byrnes to choose from are Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke. Jonathan Papelbon is also, of course, available on the trade market and was quite effective closing games for the Phillies last winter. For what it’s worth, Friedman should be plenty familiar with Soriano, as Soriano spent the 2010 season — arguably the best of his career — with the Rays.
Angels Sign Matt Lindstrom To Minor League Deal
7:40pm: Lindstrom will receive a $1MM base salary if he makes the Major League roster, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
4:19pm: The Angels announced today that they have signed right-handed reliever Matt Lindstrom to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training. The 35-year-old Lindstrom is represented by Greg Genske of the Legacy Agency.
Lindstrom opened the 2014 season as the White Sox closer and recorded six saves with a 3.32 ERA through his first 19 appearances, but he suffered a subluxed tendon in his ankle while fielding a grounder, causing him to spend nearly three full months on the disabled list. Upon returning, he struggled to a 7.20 ERA in 16 appearances, yielding 12 runs in 15 innings of work.
From 2011-13, Lindstrom enjoyed a quite productive run with the Rockies, Orioles, D-Backs and White Sox, pitching to a combined 2.95 ERA with 6.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 51.4 percent ground-ball rate. Lindstrom’s ground-ball tendencies have trended upward over his career, and as he’s gotten older, he’s relied increasingly on a power sinker to maintain his effectiveness. Lindstrom averages roughly 95 mph on the pitch, though his velocity last season was more in the 93 mph range.
Marlins Re-Sign Reed Johnson
3:45pm: Johnson will earn $1.25MM in the Majors and can opt out of his contract on March 29 if he’s not added to the roster, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
3:05pm: The Marlins have agreed to a minor league deal with outfielder Reed Johnson, the club announced. The contract includes an invitation to major league camp.
Now 38, Johnson struggled last year with the Fish, putting up a career-worst .614 OPS (on the back of a .235/.266/.348 slash) over 201 plate appearances. Limited mostly to the corner outfield, that left Johnson as a well-below-replacement-level player.
It looks to be an uphill climb for Johnson this year, as Miami features a trio of talented young options in the outfield and already inked Ichiro Suzuki for the fourth outfielder role. But Johnson will certainly provide a nice veteran presence and depth in camp, if nothing more, and was an average or better hitter as recently as 2011-12.
Latest On Hector Olivera, Yoan Moncada
We already took a peek in this morning at the Cuban market, but the news keeps coming. Here’s the latest on the two most touted position players available (or soon to be):
- Two executives who spoke with Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons indicated that the market for Hector Olivera looks rather strong (Twitter link). One predicted that Olivera would attain a $45MM to $50MM guarantee, while the other (from a team with interest) guessed that the 29-year-old infielder would reach the $65MM to $70MM range. We have heard reports of Olivera seeking that kind of guarantee, but it is interesting to see that some big league front office people see it as a likely outcome.
- We heard earlier today that the Dodgers continue to have interest in Olivera and would plan to use him at third if they end up signing him.
- Yoan Moncada remains most likely to sign with the Yankees or Dodgers, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. The Padres are the third most likely landing spot, in Badler’s estimation, with the benefit of having not apparently made commitments that would need to be broken with next year’s July 2 class. Also still in the mix are the Red Sox and Tigers. Of course, the level of interest in the latter two teams, especially, remains unclear. In particular, Detroit is “not that serious” about going after Moncada, per Tony Paul of the Detroit News, who adds via Twitter that the team has not been in contact lately with Moncada’s camp.
- Notably, however, Badler adds that the Cubs and Rangers are “not out of the race” and are being aggressive in their pursuit of Moncada. Both teams would need to convince him to wait until July 2 to sign, which seems unlikely at this point.
Dodgers Seek To Acquire Additional Reliever
The Dodgers are still working to pick up an arm for the bullpen, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. It is not clear from the report what sort of pitcher, or means of acquisition, Los Angeles is contemplating.
As things stand, the Dodgers already figure to open with a substantially re-worked pen. Among relievers with over twenty appearances for the team last year, only Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, and Brandon League are set to return. (Pedro Baez and Paco Rodriguez fell just shy of that arbitrary line.)
The team looks reasonably well-stocked on the right side, especially after adding David Aardsma and Sergio Santos on minor league pacts. Los Angeles had already dealt for Joel Peralta, Chris Hatcher, and Juan Nicasio earlier in the offseason. The same could probably be said with regard to lefties, as Howell is supplemented by a range of options including Rodriguez, David Huff, Adam Liberatore, and Ryan Buchter.
Of course, though there seems to be a fair amount of depth, there is almost always room for improvement in the bullpen. And it is worth noting that projections are not exactly in love with the present group. There are relatively few quality free agent arms remaining, though there are several with obvious appeal and the trade route is always possible.