Jonathan Papelbon Talks Trade Possibilities
Phillies’ closer Jonathan Papelbon discussed the possibility of being dealt for the first of what could be many times in camp, as Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News reports. Given that he possesses a 17-team no-trade list, Papelbon’s opinion will play a significant role in how he is marketed by the rebuilding club.
Papelbon says that he has not yet reached the point of considering any trade scenarios that may have implicated his no-trade clause. “Once I hear something from my agents, that’s when I get involved,” Papelbon said. “I never heard anything from them.” That clause is an important part of the free agent contract that brought him to Philadelphia, pursuant to which he is owed $13MM for the coming season and another $13MM for 2016 if (and only if) he finishes 48 games this year.
The veteran righty indicated last summer that he would be willing to waive his no-trade protection to join a winning club, and the same appears to hold true now. But as to whether he would demand that a club on his no-trade list pick up the 2016 vesting option — a key consideration in defining his market — Papelbon remained noncommital: “I’ll cross that bridge when I get there. I think it depends on where I’m going, what the situation is with that other ballclub, what my situation is here. The whole equation comes into play.”
While he may not have been asked to consider specific trade scenarios, he certainly seemed versed in the rumors. Papelbon mentioned two teams that he had been tied to in explaining his willingness to compete wherever he ends up (including Philadelphia): “If Toronto wants me, if Milwaukee wants me, whoever wants me, they’re going to get someone who knows how to compete and go play ball and lay it on the line.”
Mike Minor Wins Arbitration Case Versus Braves
Mike Minor has won his arbitration hearing versus the Braves, reports MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (on Twitter). Minor will earn $5.6MM as opposed to the $5.1MM figure submitted by the team, as shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. Minor, a Jet Sports Management client, had been projected to earn $5.1MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Minor, who turned 27 this past December, was plagued by shoulder issues in an injury-shortened 2014 campaign. The left-hander worked to a 4.77 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate in 145 1/3 innings with Atlanta last year. Those numbers were a far cry from the very strong 3.21 ERA he posted in 204 1/3 innings in a much healthier 2013 campaign.
David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution was among the reporters to discuss the arbitration hearing with Minor today (video link). Minor said the hearing process took roughly four hours, and he holds no hard feelings toward the Braves organization, understanding that the process was merely business. In fact, he spoke with Braves officials who were representing the team upon completion of the hearing. “They all say ‘good luck — hope you have a great year,’ so it’s nothing personal,” Minor said. The lefty added that his shoulder feels 100 percent and he’s slated for a bullpen session the second day. Minor discussed feeling behind and feeling weak as he entered Spring Training last season, noting how strong he feels in comparison this year.
Minor will receive a nice $1.75MM bump from his $3.85MM salary in his second trip through the arbitration process. A Super Two player, Minor will be eligible for arbitration twice more before hitting the open market upon completion of the 2017 campaign. That timeline has him slated to hit free agency heading into his age-30 season, which should set him up for a nice payday if he can rediscover his 2013 form now that his shoulder woes appear to be in the past.
Royals Sign Franklin Morales
FEB.20: Morales’ deal pays him $1.85MM with an additional $850K available via incentives, if he is on the Major League roster, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
FEB. 19: The Royals have signed left-hander Franklin Morales to a minor league contract, the team announced on its official Twitter site. Morales is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Morales posted a 5.37 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 1.54 K/BB rate over 142 1/3 innings with the Rockies last season. Ostensibly the team’s emergency starter, Morales ended up making 22 starts (out of 37 overall appearances) thanks to all of the injuries in Colorado’s rotation. This unexpected amount of action was surely a big reason for Morales’ inflated numbers, especially the additional exposure to right-handed hitters — righty bats had a .923 OPS against Morales last season, while left-handed hitters managed only a .699 OPS.
Given his large career splits (.624 OPS vs LHB, .844 OPS vs. RHB), Morales could be a valuable bullpen weapon if he’s limited to facing mostly lefty bats. If he makes the Royals’ roster, pitching at Kauffman Stadium could also be a boon for Morales after spending his entire career at hitter-friendly Coors Field and Fenway Park. Morales has only a 40% ground ball rate over his career and his HR/FB rate ballooned to a career-high 15.9% last season.
While the Royals’ bullpen is arguably the best in the game overall, their relief corps is short on left-handed options other than Tim Collins. Top prospect Brandon Finnegan worked out of the bullpen during Kansas City’s playoff run last year, though the club would obviously prefer to keep him as a starter for the sake of his long-term development. Of the other southpaw relievers in camp (including Brian Flynn and Joe Paterson), Morales has the most experience and he could even take the odd start if the Royals were in a pinch. K.C. had also recently shown interest in veteran relievers Phil Coke and Alfredo Aceves.
No Progress On Extension Talks Between Cardinals, John Lackey
Reports from earlier this winter indicated that the Cardinals and John Lackey would be discussing “possibly reworking” the veteran righty’s league-minimum salary for the 2015 season. With Spring Training about to begin, however, the two sides don’t appear to be close to either a new 2015 contract nor a multi-year extension, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
“Obviously, the (minimum salary for Lackey) compensation for 2015 was attractive to us. In terms of trying to change that structure, I don’t know if both parties are going to find there’s a very desirable reason to do that, considering the opportunities that might exist for him entering his free agent year,” Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said. “I’m not closing the door on anything but I’m not pursuing anything either at this point. I don’t feel that either party is pushing, for that matter.”
Lackey himself also confirmed that there was “nothing close” in contract talks, though he was open to staying in St. Louis beyond this season. “If it’s something that works for both sides. I would like it,” Lackey said. “This group of guys…this organization…it’s a great place to be and it’s something I would entertain for sure.”
The five-year, $82.5MM contract Lackey signed with the Red Sox in December 2009 contained a clause that added a team option season (at the league minimum) if Lackey was to miss significant time with an elbow injury. This clause was triggered once Lackey spent all of 2012 on the disabled list recovering from Tommy John surgery, and after Lackey returned from injury to throw quality seasons in each of 2013 and 2014, he stands as one of the biggest bargains in the game.
As Mozeliak noted, getting an established quality starter for only $507.5K in 2015 was undoubtedly a major reason why the Cards acquired Lackey from the Sox last July. Likewise, the club may also be wary about extending a pitcher entering his age-36 season. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in December that there’s really no reason for the Cardinals to renegotiate Lackey’s 2015 deal unless they were able to work out an extension “that added a reasonably priced season or two to the 36-year-old’s deal.”
From Lackey’s perspective, he may not want to sign an extension that locks him in at what could be another team-friendly price, as he undoubtedly feels his 2013-14 performance (and obviously what he hopes is a similar or better 2015 season) should earn him another significant multi-year commitment. This is probably Lackey’s last shot at a such a deal, so there’s all the more reason for him to maximize his earnings. On other hand, Lackey already has a lot of money in the bank and may be more concerned with winning at this stage in his career, so it’d make sense that he wants to stay with the perennially-contending Cardinals.
Street Seeking Extension Similar To Robertson, Miller Contracts
Angels closer Huston Street, who acts as his own agent, told reporters at Angels camp today that he has been in “steady” negotiations with the team dating back to September (via the L.A. Times’ Mike DiGiovanna on Twitter). Street thinks a contract will eventually get done, but he has his sights set high, as DiGiovanna tweets that Street sees something between the four-year, $36MM contract signed by Andrew Miller and the four-year, $46MM pact inked by David Robertson this offseason as fair value. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register clarifies that Street is envisioning a new contract that would override his current $7MM salary and run through the 2018 season (Twitter link).
If that’s the case, then Street is essentially eyeing something along the lines of three years and $34MM worth of new money on an extension (using a $41MM midpoint between the aforementioned Robertson/Miller deals) — a lofty goal for a reliever entering his age-31 campaign. The Angels, conversely, are trying to sell Street on an extension that runs through the 2017 season, per MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (Twitter links). There’s no deadline on extension talks, Gonzalez adds.
From a performance standpoint, it’s easy to see why Street feels that he should be compensated at a level that is commensurate with the top arms on the market. Over the past three seasons, he’s worked to a 1.97 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 35 percent ground-ball rate in 155 innings between the Padres and the Halos. His 97 saves in that time tie him for 10th in the Majors.
However, there’s also reason for the Angels to express caution. Aside from the standard caveat emptor that comes with giving long-term contracts to all relievers, who are typically volatile assets, Street is a full year older than Robertson and Miller. A four-year deal covering the 2015-18 seasons would span Street’s age 31-34 seasons, whereas Robertson and Miller are under contract for their age 30-33 seasons. Street also has a lengthy injury history, with seven separate DL stints under his belt in the Major Leagues — three of which came from 2012-13.
Street has never been a flamethrower, but he’s averaged just north of 89 mph on his heater over the past three seasons and relies greatly on inducing weak contact and stranding runners. That’s not to say that his K/9 rate is sub-par — he’s whiffed nearly a better per inning — rather that he is of a different breed than the more prototypical elite relievers to which we’ve become accustomed (e.g. Robertson, Miller, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland).
There are few recent historical precedents for a reliever of this age signing an extension. The most recent comparable is probably Glen Perkins, who tacked an additional two years and $14.1MM onto his existing deal prior to the 2014 season. However, while that deal buys out a similar portion of Perkins’ career in terms of age, there are varying factors that prevent the two from being a truly apt comparison. Firstly, Perkins was two full seasons away from free agency as compared to Street’s one. Secondly, Perkins stated after the deal was completed that maximizing his earnings was never his top priority; he instead had simply hoped to remain with his hometown team for the bulk of his career.
As such, Street would seem to be in relatively uncharted territory. Not only is he negotiating his own deal, but he’s doing so at a time of his career when his peers have typically preferred to test the waters of the open market (or are already in the midst of long-term deals). Were Street to enjoy a typically excellent season and remain healthy, it’s not hard to envision teams showing interest in the three-year realm that he currently seeks. However, going that route would come with the risk of an injury in 2015 as well as the task of negotiating his own deal with not one, but many teams that would likely show interest.
It stands to reason then, that both sides have a motivation to get a contract worked out. Some form of vesting option could be a compromise, though such clauses can prove to be a headache down the line (as Jonathan Papelbon‘s current trade talks demonstrate). While there’s no deadline on talks, one would think that each side would prefer to complete something prior to the onset of the season, meaning that Street could ultimately be one of the many Spring Training extensions we see on a yearly basis, assuming a deal is eventually agreed upon.
Mark Trumbo Wins Arbitration Hearing Versus D-Backs
Outfielder Mark Trumbo has won his arbitration hearing against the Diamondbacks, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Trumbo will earn a $6.9MM salary, which is significantly higher than the $5.3MM figure submitted by the club coming off an injury-shortened campaign. Trumbo’s agents at Wasserman Media Group did well to handily top the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who had pegged him for a $5.7MM salary.
Trumbo, 29, will receive a sizable $2.1MM raise despite missing roughly half the 2014 season. (Conversely, the team’s $5.3MM figure called for a raise of just $500K.) Though his first season with the D-Backs was shortened, he did post solid power numbers, hitting 14 homers and driving in 61 runs in just 88 games (362 plate appearances). While he rated as a sub-replacement-level player due to a .293 OBP and some particularly unsightly grades from defensive metrics, arbitration places greater emphasis on baseball card numbers like homers and RBIs than more modern statistics.
This marks Trumbo’s second trip through the arbitration process, and he’ll look to stay on the field for the entirety of the 2015 season and continue to post strong power numbers in hopes of an even more substantial raise next winter. He’s arbitration eligible one more time before becoming a free agent following the 2016 season. Arizona originally acquired Trumbo in a three-team trade that sent left-hander Tyler Skaggs to the Angels and center fielder Adam Eaton to the White Sox.
Pedro Alvarez Wins Arbitration Hearing Versus Pirates
Pedro Alvarez has won an arbitration hearing against the Pirates and will be awarded with the $5.75MM salary for which he filed as opposed to the team’s $5.25MM offer, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (via Twitter). The Scott Boras client and former No. 2 overall pick had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.5MM in this, his second trip through the arbitration process.
The 28-year-old Alvarez wins his hearing in spite of a down season in 2014 that saw his homer total from the previous year halved — from 36 to 18. Alvarez also saw his already questionable defense at third base decline, making an astounding 24 throwing errors in 823 innings at the hot corner. That led to him losing the reins on the everyday job at third base to breakout infielder Josh Harrison. Alvarez will be tasked with shifting to first base on a full-time basis beginning in 2015.
Overall, Alvarez will be receiving a modest $1.5MM raise from last season’s $4.25MM salary. Restored power would go a long ways toward earning him one more significant pay increase in arbitration next offseason as he heads into a contract year; Alvarez will be free-agent eligible following the 2016 campaign.
For the Pirates — a noted “file and trial” arbitration team — this was the third arb hearing they’ve had this winter, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. The team won a hearing against Neil Walker (who had filed at $9MM against Pittsburgh’s $8MM) and also lost a hearing to Vance Worley ($2.45MM versus $2MM).
Dodgers Showing Interest In Joba Chamberlain
The Dodgers, who recently learned that closer Kenley Jansen will be sidelined for eight to 12 weeks due to foot surgery, are showing interest in Joba Chamberlain, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The team is also considering “other possibilities,” though Rosenthal doesn’t elaborate any further on that notion.
Speculation following the news of Jansen’s injury was that the Dodgers may jump into the top end of the free agent relief market — specifically meaning Francisco Rodriguez or Rafael Soriano. However, multiple reports quickly downplayed that speculation, suggesting that if anything, adding a middle relief arm would be more likely.
Chamberlain, 29, fits that description, although as I noted recently, one could make a case that he’s the best buy remaining on the free agent market. He’s certainly the youngest notable free agent left in free agency, and he enjoyed an overall solid year on the mound, pitching to a 3.57 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 53.2 percent ground-ball rate. It’s true that Chamberlain faded in the season’s second half, but much of that is attributable to a nearly seven-percent dip in his strand rate.
Chamberlain stranded better than 75 percent of baserunners in the season’s first half — a mark that’s well in line with his lifetime 74.6 percent clip — and saw that number dip to 69 percent in the second half. Strand rate can fluctuate in small samples but typically regresses toward a pitcher’s average rate, giving reason to believe that Chamberlain could see improved all-around results in 2015. (A move to the National League, of course, may be beneficial to his bottom-line numbers as well.)
Adding a reliever in the wake of Jansen’s injury may seem an overreaction to some, but the Dodgers had some bullpen depth issues even when Jansen was healthy. Beyond Jansen, the team projects to have Joel Peralta Brandon League, J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez in the ‘pen, with candidates for the final two spots including Juan Nicasio, Chris Hatcher and Pedro Baez. Non-roster invitees include David Aardsma, Sergio Santos, Erik Bedard and David Huff. While the makings of a solid bullpen certainly could be in that mix of players, man offer question marks in terms of health, inexperience and/or recent struggles at the big league level.
Marlins Unlikely To Add K-Rod, Joba Or Coke
The Marlins don’t appear likely to make a significant free-agent addition to their bullpen, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports that the team isn’t expected to add Phil Coke or Joba Chamberlain, and the asking price of Francisco Rodriguez remains too high. Frisaro had previously written that Miami was considering Rodriguez and had its eyes on a minor league deal for Coke.
According to Frisaro, the Marlins are comfortable offering Rodriguez a two-year deal worth roughly $10MM in total. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported last night that K-Rod is seeking that same level of financial compensation on a one-year deal. I’d imagine that agent Scott Boras would listen if the Marlins were to expand (though certainly not double) their comfort zone on a two-year deal, but Frisaro gives no indication that such a scenario is likely. He does note that if Rodriguez’s demands drop, he’s the most realistic external option to boost the bullpen. The Marlins don’t have serious interest in Chamberlain, Frisaro adds.
As for Coke, the Marlins remain unwilling to give the former Tiger anything other than a minor league contract. Miami is very interested to see what Rule 5 pick Andrew McKirahan can do in Spring Training, and adding Coke would likely snuff out that competition before it had a chance to begin, as the team already has a second lefty locked into a bullpen spot in the form of Mike Dunn. Coke, though, is said to be looking for about $2MM on a Major League contract.
Another name that intrigues the Marlins is that of minor league signee Nick Masset, who excelled as a setup man for the Reds from 2009-11 before shoulder problems kept him on the shelf for the entire 2012 and 2013 seasons. Masset returned to the Majors in 2014 but struggled to a 5.80 ERA in 45 innings with the Rockies. However, Masset did still average nearly 93 mph on his fastball with a 51.7 percent ground-ball rate, so there are some elements of his rough season that merit optimism.
Royals To Sign Eric Hosmer To Two-Year Deal
The Royals have agreed to a two-year, $13.9MM deal to avoid arbitration with first baseman Eric Hosmer, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). The Boras Corporation client, 25, will still have one more year of arb eligibility remaining before qualifying for free agency in 2018.
Hosmer will earn $5.65MM for 2015 and will take home a $8.25MM salary next season, per another Flanagan tweet. A Super Two last year, Hosmer had filed at $6.7MM while Kansas City countered at $4.6MM. That created a $5.65MM midpoint — an exact match for his upcoming salary — that fell above Hosmer’s $5.2MM projection from MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz.
Though he is entrenched with the Royals, Hosmer still has yet to put together back-to-back productive seasons. In 2013, he slashed .302/.353/.448 with 17 home runs and 11 steals over 680 plate appearances, good for a 3+ win campaign. But he barely cracked the replacement barrier in his 547 trips to the dish in 2014. He rebounded well from a mid-season hand fracture, and was generally much better in the second half, but still ended the year with a .270.318/.398 mark with nine long balls and four stolen bags.
Obviously, the budget-conscious Royals remain believers. While a two-year pact offers some cost certainty and, potentially, some savings, it also takes away the possibility of a non-tender. And the team will be left exposed to the value of Hosmer’s raise if an injury occurs that would have limited his earning power.