Rays Sign Asdrubal Cabrera
The Rays have announced that they’ve signed middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera to a one-year deal. The Octagon client will make $7.5MM.
The Rays already had Yunel Escobar at shortstop and Ben Zobrist to play second, but after they reached agreement with Cabrera, they shipped both Escobar and Zobrist (who also will make $7.5MM next season) to Oakland. That should free the Rays’ middle infield for Cabrera, Nick Franklin and Logan Forsythe.
Cabrera, 29, hit .241/.307/.387 in 553 plate appearances with the Indians and Nationals last season. He rated as below average defensively at shortstop, and mostly played second base with the Nationals, who already had Ian Desmond at shortstop. Cabrera ranked 23rd on MLBTR’s list of this offseason’s top 50 free agents, just ahead of Jed Lowrie as the top middle infielder available (not including Hanley Ramirez). That such a player would only receive a one-year deal is somewhat surprising (Lowrie, for example, got three years and $23MM), but the contract will give Cabrera another shot at free agency next year, when he’ll still only be 30.
Cabrera is the first significant signing for the Rays this offseason. The Rays have added Ernesto Frieri and Michael Kohn on big-league deals, also trading Wil Myers, Ryan Hanigan, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Joyce, Joel Peralta and Sean Rodriguez in an attempt to remake a team that won 77 games with the franchise’s highest ever payroll.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that the contract was done, and that it was a one-year, $7.5MM contract (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports originally tweeted that an agreement was in place. Heyman first tweeted that a deal was close.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Extension Candidate: Chris Tillman
With his youth, solid performance, strong health record and history of eating innings, righty Chris Tillman certainly seems like the kind of player who ordinarily would get extension consideration. It comes as no surprise, then, that the Orioles are interested in extending the Beverly Hills Sports Council client. It doesn’t sound like discussions have gotten very far, however, and it’s not clear where they’ll end up once they do.
Tillman has pitched over 200 innings in each of the last two seasons, establishing himself as a workhorse at the relatively tender age of 26. After struggling through half-seasons in the big leagues in 2010 and 2011, he’s gotten above-average results. What’s not immediately obvious, however, is why he’s gotten those results. Tillman’s K/BB numbers (6.5 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 2014; 6.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 for his career) are fine but nothing special, and he also isn’t a ground ball pitcher. He’s posted very low BABIPs (.221, .269 and .267) in each of the last three seasons, and he’s stranded runners at a very high rate in each of the last two. Unsurprisingly, Tillman’s xFIP and SIERA figures have run well behind in his ERAs in each of those years, suggesting a back-of-the-rotation type who looks better than he is thanks to the Orioles’ excellent defense. His velocity has also dropped in each of the past two seasons.
Tillman does benefit from the fact that it’s nearly impossible to steal bases against him, however, which doesn’t turn up in peripheral numbers. Also, it’s possible he turned a corner at some point last season — he posted a 4.11 ERA in the first half, then a 2.33 in the second half, with 7.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. That kind of decisive improvement might be mostly variance (Tillman also pitched significantly better in the second half in 2013, but didn’t carry that improvement into the first half of 2014), but it’s also possible he simply got better as the season went on, particularly given his age. Tillman changed his release point as 2014 progressed, perhaps suggesting that at least a portion of his improvement is sustainable. And even if Tillman reverts to his career norms next year, his ability to soak up innings has value. Exactly how good Tillman is can be debated, but if he keeps pitching 200 innings a season, extending him has limited downside (at least by the standards of multi-year pitcher contracts) even if he’s merely average.
It’s difficult to find precedents for a Tillman extension that don’t come with significant caveats. Tillman has between three and four years of service time, and via MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, most recent extensions for starting pitchers with that much service are either very short (two years each for Mat Latos and Clayton Kershaw, for example) or out of date (Johnny Cueto got a four-year deal plus an option prior to the 2011 season, while Ervin Santana got four plus an option two years before that). A long-term deal for Tillman would potentially recalibrate the market for pitchers with similar service time.
So to map out a Tillman extension, we’ll begin with his likely salary heading into his first year of arbitration. Matt Swartz’s model for MLBTR projects that Tillman will get $5.4MM in his first arbitration season, but as Swartz noted last week, that figure is probably unlikely. The current record for a one-year deal for a pitcher eligible for arbitration for the first time is $4.35MM, and Swartz thinks Tillman would approach or match that figure rather than crashing through it.
If Tillman were to make $4.35MM next year, that would still set him up to clear $20MM in his arbitration seasons, depending on his development. If Tillman’s contract were to match the Cueto and Santana deals in structure (four years plus an option), that would put him between $32MM and $40MM. That figure seems low, given more recent extensions for pitchers with slightly less service time, like Chris Sale (who had between two and three years of service time when he got $32MM guaranteed for five years, plus two options) and Derek Holland (who had roughly the same service time as Sale and got $28.5MM guaranteed for a five-year deal with two options). Julio Teheran signed for six years and $32.4MM last offseason despite having just over a year of big league service.
Of course, Tillman and the Orioles could aim longer. For five years guaranteed, Tillman could perhaps ask for the five years and $55MM given to Matt Harrison, who had a year more service at the time of his extension than Tillman has now. Phil Hughes‘ recent deal gave up three years of free agency eligibility at $14MM per season, and a five-year deal for Tillman would give up two. Given what Tillman is set to make in arbitration, a $55MM total, or perhaps a bit less, for the next five years makes sense. Alternately, the two sides could strike a two- or three-year deal, although that would likely be done purely on Tillman’s arbitration projections and probably wouldn’t contain any options.
Given the money Tillman is already set to make in arbitration, it would be hard to blame him for aiming high in extension discussions. The question is whether the Orioles would want to pay $50MM or more for a pitcher with so many sabermetric question marks. If a large percentage of Tillman’s success is due to the Orioles’ defense, it doesn’t make sense for the Orioles to pay a premium for him going forward. Unless Tillman is willing to take a substantial discount, the Orioles’ best route might be to take him year-to-year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Hector Olivera To Hold Showcase In Two Weeks
Cuban second baseman Hector Olivera is set to host an open showcase at the Giants’ facility in the Dominican Republic on Jan. 21-22, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America. The 29-year-old second baseman is one of the top international prospects on the market but is not yet eligible to sign with clubs due to the fact that he has not been cleared by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) or by Major League Baseball.
Representatives from the majority of Major League clubs should likely be expected to attend, as this will be many scouts’ first opportunity to see Olivera in-person in several years. Olivera missed the entire 2012-13 season in Cuba with what his club said was a blood disorder, and he also sat out from many international tournaments in that span. He returned to Cuba’s Serie Nacional in 2013-14 and batted .316/.412/.474 in 273 plate appearances, although as Badler cautions, Olivera played second base in just 29 of his 90 games, appearing at DH in all of the others.
Olivera’s age and experience as a professional in Serie Nacional will make him exempt from international spending limitations once he is ultimately declared a free agent by the league and OFAC. It’s not clear at this time, however, exactly what type of contract the soon-to-be 30-year-old will command.
Badler notes that earlier in the offseason, he heard both the Padres and A’s mentioned as possible fits for Olivera. San Diego may not be as strong a fit for Olivera as it was a few weeks ago, however, as the Padres have added Will Middlebrooks to the mix at third base,. One would assume that Jedd Gyorko would have slid over to the hot corner eventually if Olivera were to play second base for the Friars.
From a purely speculative standpoint, I can also see the Nationals, Angels, Blue Jays and White Sox as fits based on team need, as each has some uncertainty surrounding their second base incumbent. The Sox are admittedly an imperfect fit, as they just signed Emilio Bonifacio and have the well-regarded Micah Johnson waiting in the wings, but from a 2015 standpoint, Bonifacio could simply be used in a super utility capacity.
Takashi Toritani To Remain With Hanshin Tigers
Shortstop Takashi Toritani has chosen to remain with the Hanshin Tigers, according to a report from Sponichi (Japanese link, hat tip to NPBTracker’s Patrick Newman). The Tigers have since announced the decision (Japanese link), and Toritani, a client of the Boras Corporation, has issued a personal statement as well (translation via Yakyubaka.com):
“I earned my international FA option and exercised it. I spent a lot of time thinking about my options and would now like to let everyone know that I decided to stay. I apologize to the fans, organization, and players for the worry I may have caused by taking so long to come to this decision. I would like to ask the fans to put their concerns aside in exchange for a season in which I will work hard to help share the happiness that comes from winning a league pennant and Nippon Series.”
Toritani, 33, was reportedly not completely set on coming to North America, though he hired Boras to explore the MLB market to see if an everyday job and an acceptable contract could be found. The Padres, Blue Jays and Mets were known to have interest in Toritani as either a shortstop or as a second baseman, though none of that trio made him an offer. While he came with a strong defensive reputation, some scouts expressed concern as to whether or not Toritani would hit enough at the Major League level to merit an everyday role.
By staying in Japan, Toritani will get the opportunity to extend his streak of 1444 consecutive games played, which is already a Nippon Professional Baseball record (even more impressively, he’s played in every inning of those 1444 games). Toritani has spent his entire pro career with Hanshin, hitting .285/.372/.412 over 6531 plate appearances.
Angels Designate Marc Krauss For Assignment
The Angels have designated outfielder/first baseman Marc Krauss for assignment, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter link). The transaction opens up a spot on the Halos’ 40-man roster for the newly-acquired Kyle Kubitza.
Originally selected in the second round of the 2009 draft by the Diamondbacks, Krauss was dealt to the Astros as part of the Chris Johnson trade in 2012. Krauss hit .200/.274/.341 with 10 homers over 354 plate appearances for the Astros during the 2013-14 seasons. Los Angeles claimed him off waivers from Houston last month. Krauss, 27, has an impressive .278/.375/.479 slash line and 78 homers over 2262 minor league PA.
Krauss is one of 10 players currently residing in “DFA Limbo,” as per the MLB Trade Rumors DFA Tracker.
Angels, Braves Swap Minor Leaguers
5:57pm: The Braves announced that they have traded Kubitza and right-hander Nate Hyatt to the Angels in exchange for left-hander Ricardo Sanchez.
4:49pm: The Angels are close to acquiring third base prospect Kyle Kubitza from the Braves, reports MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (Twitter links). Per Gonzalez, the Halos will land Kubitza without parting with anyone on their Major League roster. Earlier today, Gonzalez reported that the Halos were prioritizing adding a third base prospect in trades.
Kubitza, 24, ranks 10th among Braves prospects, per Baseball America and 16th according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo. In 529 plate appearances at Double-A last season, Kubitza batted .295/.405/.470 with eight homers and 21 stolen bases.
Baseball America describes Kubitza as a “fiery” player with a smooth line-drive stroke, some of the best plate discipline in the Braves organization and one of the strongest infield arms in the game. Both MLB.com and BA note that Kubitza’s swing can get a bit long, which leads to a high strikeout rate and prevents him from fully realizing his power potential in a game setting. His acquisition is significant for the Angels not necessarily for their 2015 club, but for their long-term future, as David Freese is a free agent next offseason and former top prospect Kaleb Cowart‘s development appears to have stalled.
Hyatt, also 24, was a 13th-round pick in 2012 and repeated Class-A Advanced this past season with much-improved results the second time around. After posting a 3.86 ERA with 10.6 K/9 but a troublesome 5.8 BB/9 in 2013, Hyatt dropped his ERA to 2.71 and posted a similar strikeout rate (10.4 K/9) with markedly better control (3.9 BB/9) in 63 innings. He’s a pure reliever, never having started a game as a professional.
In Sanchez, the Braves have acquired a player that ranked second among Halos farmhands, according to BA, but is years away from contributing at the Major League level. Sanchez is just 17 and spent last season pitching in the Arizona Rookie League, posting a 3.49 ERA with a 43-to-22 K/BB ratio in 38 2/3 innings (nine starts, three relief appearances). The Angels signed him for a $580K bonus out of Venezuela in July 2013.
BA and MLB.com both praise Sanchez’s smooth, effortless delivery and note that his curveball is his best pitch, projecting to be a plus offering. Despite his age, Sanchez’s fastball is in the 94 to 95 mph range, and he already appears to have a feel for a changeup, based on the pair of scouting reports. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel tweets that Sanchez has the most future value of any player in this trade and calls it a nice acquisition for an improving Braves farm system.
Sanchez is a high-ceiling acquisition, but his age is yet another indicator that the Braves do indeed appear to be focusing on 2017, when their new Cobb County stadium will open. The Angels, meanwhile, acquire a player in Kubitza that can step into the lineup in 2016, if not sooner in the event of an injury in the infield this season.
NL East Notes: Werth, Zobrist, Fedde, Shields, Phillies
Nationals right fielder Jayson Werth will undergo arthroscopic surgery on right shoulder tomorrow and need two to three months to recover, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (All Twitter links). Werth will have his AC shoulder joint — the same joint that caused him to miss time in August — repaired at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. While the first reaction of some (myself included) is probably to wonder if this will increase Washington’s interest in Ben Zobrist, Rosenthal reports that that’s not the case. The Nats have considered the asking price on Zobrist to be too high in talks with the Rays, he says.
A three-month recovery could result in Werth missing time early in the season, which could lead to increased playing time for Nate McLouth or Michael Taylor. As the Nats deal with this unfortunate news, here are a few more notes pertaining to their division…
- Erick Fedde, whom the Nationals selected in the first round of last year’s draft despite the fact that he had undergone Tommy John surgery, is progressing well in his rehab and has begun a throwing program, reports MLB.com’s Bill Ladson. Fedde has also begun weight training and says that Stephen Strasburg and Lucas Giolito, both of whom have undergone Tommy John in the past, have been vital to keeping him upbeat and optimistic about his recovery.
- The Marlins have interest in James Shields but will likely only be able to make a serious play for him if his price tag drops below $100MM, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Miami had “considerable” interest in Shields back in November, but they’ve since added Mat Latos and Dan Haren into the rotation mix. Haren, of course, wants to be traded back to a West Coast club, and moving him is another likely prerequisite to a theoretical Shields signing.
- Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer examines the Phillies‘ options for left field now that Marlon Byrd is with the Reds and Domonic Brown appears to be moving back to right field. Grady Sizemore is the favorite to at least platoon with someone at that spot, but Kaplan notes that Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera is an intriguing name to keep an eye on. The second-baseman-turned-outfielder is just 23 years of age and enjoying a brilliant season in the Venezuelan Winter League, hitting a ridiculous .372/.432/.556 with six homers and eight steals in just over 200 at-bats. Kaplan also spoke with GM Ruben Amaro Jr. about Jeff Francoeur‘s chances of making the club after signing a minor league deal earlier this offseason.
Orioles Sign J.P. Arencibia To Minor League Deal
The Orioles have reportedly been looking to add another catcher (despite having five on the 40-man roster), and they did so today, announcing the signing of J.P. Arencibia to a minor league deal. The CAA Sports client will receive an invite to Major League Spring Training.
Arencibia, who just turned 29, handled most of the catching duties for the Blue Jays over the 2011-13 campaigns. His low-OBP, high-strikeout approach yielded a steady diet of ~20-home run campaigns, but reached an extreme in his final year in Toronto, when he managed only a .227 on-base percentage while striking out 148 times and walking only 18 times in 497 turns at the plate.
It was much the same last year in Texas, where Arencibia scuffled to a .177/.239/.369 slash with ten long balls in 222 plate appearances. On a Rangers team beset with injury issues, he split his time evenly between catching, playing first, and slotting in as the designated hitter.
Arencibia will presumably challenge for a similar role in Baltimore or serve as depth while starting the year in the upper minors. As Connolly notes on Twitter, Arencibia put up big numbers at Triple-A during his time in Texas, when his swing was being overseen by new O’s hitting coach (and then-Rangers minor league hitting coordinator) Scott Coolbaugh.
From a defensive standpoint, Arencibia has prevented base stealing at a roughly league-average clip throughout his career (26 percent). He’s also typically graded out as a plus pitch-framer, according to both Baseball Prospectus and Matthew Carruth’s Framing Report at StatCorner.com.
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun first reported that the deal was close (on Twitter), and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that an agreement had been reached.
Cardinals Exploring Top-End Starter Acquisition
The Cardinals are exploring several avenues to add a top-end arm to the top of the rotation, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports report. The targets include not only free agent Max Scherzer but also trade candidates Cole Hamels of the Phillies and David Price of the Tigers.
Rosenthal and Morosi hasten to add that no deals appear to be close, and note that St. Louis could decide to hold pat with its current slate of starters if the price proves too steep. But the club’s interest reflects some level of concern that the staff will hold up as constituted, per the report.
Scherzer has local roots and could be had for nothing but money, but is expected to command quite a lot of it. The other two hurlers — both southpaws, which the FOX Sports tandem says the Cards would prefer — will obviously require more than cash commitments to acquire.
In the case of Hamels, his no-trade protection would pose no barrier as the Cardinals are not on his no-trade list. But Philadelphia would be looking for a package fronted by a young starter such as Carlos Martinez or Marco Gonzales, while also including a promising young outfielder like Randal Grichuk or Stephen Piscotty. Center fielder Peter Bourjos is also a player that the Phillies have had interest in some time, per Rosenthal and Morosi.
Price, of course, represents an entirely different sort of piece. He is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and is currently under control of a win-now Detroit club. Per the report, St. Louis might pursue Price with the idea of locking him up for the long-term, based in part on the fact that he makes his offseason home in reasonable proximity (Nashville).
The Price-Scherzer dynamic also impacts things from the Tigers’ perspective, of course, and Rosenthal and Morosi say that the team has not approached Price about an extension. GM Dave Dombrowski has not been shy about dealing pitching talent in recent years, and it could be that moving Price off the books for 2015 would pave the way for a return for Scherzer. Of course, that scenario seems fairly speculative at this stage.
Padres Sign Josh Johnson, Designate Jake Goebbert
7:01pm: The deal does indeed include $6.25MM in achievable incentives based on games started, with triggers ranging from his fifth to 33rd start, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
4:10pm: The Padres announced today their widely expected signing of right-hander Josh Johnson to a one-year deal. Previous reports indicated that Johnson, a client of Sosnick/Cobbe Sports, would earn $1MM plus incentives. To clear room on the 40-man roster, the Padres designated Jake Goebbert for assignment.
Assuming previous reports remain accurate, Johnson will receive $500K for making his fifth start, $1MM for his 10th start, $500K for his 15th start and $1MM for his 20th. He will then earn $250K per start for starts 21-33. In total, his $1MM contract can reach $7.25MM if all of the incentives are reached.
The 30-year-old Johnson (31 at the end of this month) signed a one-year, $8MM deal with the Padres last offseason coming off a down season with Toronto. However, Johnson underwent Tommy John surgery in April and never made a start wearing a Padres uniform. His contract contained a conditional $4MM club option that triggered in the event he made fewer than seven starts, but the Friars declined that option and chose to re-sign him to an even lower guarantee. Though Johnson had the ability to test the open market, it was widely expected that he’d return to San Diego, as agent Matt Sosnick said more than once that Johnson felt he has “unfinished business” in San Diego.
It’s been two full years since Johnson was fully healthy, but there’s little denying what an impactful arm he can be when healthy. Johnson led the National League with a 2.30 ERA/2.41 FIP over the course of 183 2/3 innings with the Marlins in 2010 and has a career 3.40 ERA in 998 innings at the Major League level. Staying healthy has never come easy to Johnson, however, who has topped 180 innings just three times since debuting in 2005.
Johnson is the second injury-prone, high-upside arm that the Padres have added this offseason. GM A.J. Preller also inked Brandon Morrow to a one-year, $2.5MM contract that is heavily incentive-laden as well. Those two will give the Padres some rotation depth beyond a front trio of Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy. Right-hander Jesse Hahn, who pitched well out of the Friars’ rotation in 2014, was dealt to the A’s in the Derek Norris trade, and fellow righty Joe Wieland went to Los Angeles in the Matt Kemp deal. Johnson and Morrow will compete with Robbie Erlin and Cory Luebke (who is recovering from his second Tommy John operation) for spots in manager Bud Black’s rotation. Johnson, however isn’t likely to be ready to pitch on Opening Day, as his operation came on April 24 last season.
The 27-year-old Goebbert, meanwhile, was acquired from the Athletics along with a player to be named later (Ronald Herrera) in exchange for Kyle Blanks back in May of 2014. Goebbert made his big league debut with the Padres this season, hitting .218/.313/.317 in 115 plate appearances. Goebbert hit a strong .296/.410/.539 with 14 homers between the Padres’ and Athletics’ Triple-A affiliates in 2014.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported the terms of the contract last month.