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Blue Jays Make New Contract Offer To Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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The Blue Jays have made another contract offer to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., reports Buster Olney of ESPN. No specifics of the offer have been publicly reported but Olney says a gap remains between the two sides.

The will-they-won’t-they between the Jays and Guerrero has been playing out for years now, but with a special focus on the drama this winter. Guerrero is now slated for free agency after the 2025 season, which begins today for the Jays. It’s common for players to set Opening Day as a deadline in contract talks, to avoid distractions during the season. Guerrero initially went a step further and set a deadline of February 18, the opening of Spring Training.

That day came and went without a deal getting done, though Guerrero subsequently said he would keep the door open if the Jays wanted to come back to the table. Reportedly, Guerrero’s asking price was a deal of at least 14 years and worth $500MM. The Jays reportedly did make him an offer in February with a sticker price of $500MM, but with deferrals that would knock the net present value down to the $400-450MM range. Guerrero is said to be open to deferrals generally but would still like the NPV to get to that $500MM line.

In a sense, that $50-100MM gap is not large. For a deal of that length, that’s about $3.5MM to $7MM annually. In an annual baseball budget, that’s what clubs spend on a veteran reliever or a backup catcher. That would appear to be a bridgeable gap. That’s perhaps especially true when looking at the broader picture. Guerrero has been the face of the franchise for many years now. The Jays have tried to sign other marquee players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki but without success.

The regime of president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins has seemingly left a large segment of the fanbase discontent. There has been a lot of regular season success in recent years but the Jays have been swept in all of their most recent playoff appearances. Many things went wrong in 2024, which exacerbated the frustration.

Letting Guerrero walk for a relatively small financial gap would likely be unwelcome from a public relations perspective, whereas getting a deal done on Opening Day could theoretically provide a nice boost to fan morale.

The front office seems to view the situation as one that can be resolved. Shapiro recently expressed confidence that a deal would get done, either an extension or later in free agency. That was an unusual bit of candor, since front office types usually duck questions about ongoing negotiations. Atkins made somewhat similar comments yesterday, per Hazel Mae of Sportsnet and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com.

Presumably, this new offer from the Jays has moved closer to Guerrero’s asking price. Though as mentioned, no details have been publicly reported. A deal in this range would be fairly unprecedented, for the Jays or any other club.

As of a few months ago, no player had received a contract with an NPV at $500MM or higher. At the start of the 2024-25 offseason, the largest deal on record was Ohtani’s ten-year, $700MM pact with the Dodgers. Thanks to the heavy deferrals in that deal, Major League Baseball calculated the AAV as $46.06MM with the MLBPA at $43.78MM, meaning the NPV on the deal was roughly $437-460MM. Even those reduced numbers were all records, in terms of largest guarantee and largest AAV ever.

Each of those numbers is now a distant second, thanks to Soto’s deal. He got $765MM over 15 years with no deferrals, meaning his net present value shattered Ohtani’s. The AAV on that is $51MM, which also went notably beyond Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted AAV.

A hypothetical deal worth $500MM over 14 years would be a $35.7MM AAV. That would be well below Soto and Ohtani but still put Guerrero in the top 15 of all contracts by AAV, ahead of players like Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts. The total guarantee would be second all-time, when adjusting Ohtani’s down.

Guerrero hasn’t been quite as elite as Ohtani or Soto but still has a strong track record for a player his age. Many top prospects don’t reach the majors until their mid-20s but Guerrero just turned 26 earlier this month, which is a huge part of his earning power. He already has 819 games under his belt with 160 home runs, a .288/.363/.500 batting line and 137 wRC+. He was even better than that in both 2021 and 2024. Though he dipped a bit in the two seasons in between, he hit .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ last year. He’s not an especially strong defender at first but he has accomplished a lot with the bat already. If he and the Jays can’t work out a new deal, he will be one of the top free agents of next year’s class.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

Red Sox Notes: Eovaldi, Zavala, Gambrell

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Nathan Eovaldi started for the Red Sox on Opening Day each year from 2020-22, pitching a combined 16 1/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA. Today, the Red Sox will face their former no. 1 starter on Opening Day, sending their new ace, Garrett Crochet, to the bump against Eovaldi and the Rangers.

Facing Eovaldi is never an enviable task – the right-hander has a winning record and an ERA under 4.00 in each of the past five seasons – but the Red Sox, in particular, probably aren’t thrilled to be meeting up with their old friend this afternoon. After all, they made an effort to re-acquire him this past offseason, and as it turns out, they were the runner-up for his services. According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, six teams showed legitimate interest in signing Eovaldi this winter, but the veteran’s decision ultimately came down to Texas or Boston. However, it’s not known how much money the Red Sox were willing to offer or if their final bid came close to the three-year, $75MM guarantee he landed with the Rangers.

Interestingly, Boston’s trade for Crochet came together less than 24 hours after Eovaldi signed with Texas. That’s not to say the Red Sox wouldn’t have pursued Crochet if they landed Eovaldi, but it’s a possibility worth considering. If that’s true, one could argue that missing out on Eovaldi was the best possible outcome for Craig Breslow and company. Eovaldi is a great pitcher, but Crochet is coming off an All-Star season and already looks like a strong early contender for the AL Cy Young.

Of course, the Red Sox would have been even better off with both Crochet and Eovaldi atop their rotation, especially now that so many of their other starters are on the IL, namely Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford. And while the Red Sox surely have high hopes for the free agents starters they added this offseason – Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval – Eovaldi would have been a far less risky signing.

In other Red Sox news, catcher Seby Zavala has accepted his outright assignment and will begin the season with the Triple-A WooSox, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The 31-year-old was informed last week that he would not be making the Opening Day roster. While the minor league deal he signed with Boston in November included an assignment clause that allowed him to seek out an opportunity on another team’s 40-man roster, it appears he was not able to find such an opportunity and has instead reported to Triple-A. A veteran of five big league seasons, Zavala is a plus defender with 183 games of MLB catching experience. He will offer the Red Sox depth behind starting catcher Connor Wong, backup Carlos Narvaez, and Blake Sabol, who has a spot on the 40-man roster but will start the season at Triple-A.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have released Grant Gambrell, a minor league right-handed starter (h/t to Christopher Smith of MassLive). Gambrell was one of five players Boston received in 2021 as part of the three-team trade that sent Andrew Benintendi to the Royals. The Red Sox initially acquired outfielder Franchy Cordero from Kansas City and right-hander Josh Winckowski from the Mets, while Gambrell was one of three players to be named later, along with fellow righty Luis De La Rosa and outfielder Freddy Valdez. As Smith points out, Winckowski is now the only player from that trade who is still playing in the Red Sox organization. Gambrell had pitched relatively well in Boston’s system over the past two years, putting up a 3.81 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 41 games (39 starts). However, he was never a top prospect, and now 27 years old, the Red Sox have evidently decided he does not fit into their future plans.

Phillies Designate Buddy Kennedy For Assignment

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The Phillies announced this morning that they’ve designated infielder Buddy Kennedy for assignment. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski had already signaled earlier in the week that Kennedy, who’s out of minor league options, wouldn’t make the team’s Opening Day roster. He’s been discussing potential trades of the infielder already. Today’s DFA doesn’t change that. He can still be traded for the next five days, though if no deal is reached by that point, he’ll be placed on outright waivers and made available to the other 29 teams.

Kennedy, 26, has played 54 big league games with three teams — D-backs, Tigers, Phillies — across the past three seasons. He’s a career .203/.295/.313 hitter in a small sample of 149 major league plate appearances. Kennedy hasn’t gotten any real extended shot at playing time in the big leagues, however, despite a strong Triple-A track record. He’s played in parts of three seasons at the top minor league level and turned in a .281/.392/.435 batting line. He’s walked in a massive 14.4% of his plate appearances against an 18.2% strikeout rate that’s significantly lower than league average.

A fifth-round pick out of the same Millville High School that produced Mike Trout, Kennedy is a right-handed hitter who’s played all four infield positions and left field in his professional career. The vast majority of his time has been spent at third base (3470 innings) and second base (1285 innings), but he’s played 110 innings at first base, 93 innings in left field and 10 innings at shortstop. Kennedy had no platoon splits at the plate in 2024 and has been productive against both lefties and righties in each of the past three seasons (2023-24 in particular).

The Opener: Opening Day, Soto, Baker

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Here are three things we’ll be following around baseball as the 2025 season gets underway:

1. Opening Day has arrived:

The 2025 MLB regular season technically began in Tokyo earlier this month with a two-game set between the Dodgers and Cubs. Yet, today marks the first game of the season for 26 of the league’s 30 teams. The Yankees and Brewers will kick things off with the first matchup of the day at 2:05 pm CT, and games will continue throughout the afternoon and evening, ending with contests between the Cubs and Diamondbacks and the Athletics and Mariners at 9:10 pm CT. Only the Rays and Rockies will have to wait one more day to get their seasons started, as the Rays have been given some extra time to prepare their new, temporary stadium, George M. Steinbrenner Field.

2. Roster spot for Livan Soto?

Livan Soto does not have a spot on the Orioles’ 40-man roster, nor has he been informed he’s breaking camp. However, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the young infielder has a locker in the visiting clubhouse at the Rogers Centre ahead of today’s Opening Day matchup between the Orioles and Blue Jays.

Baltimore acquired Soto from the Reds ahead of the trade deadline last summer. The 24-year-old came with limited big league experience (23 games, 74 PA), but the O’s took advantage of his optionability and defensive versatility to use him as an up-and-down depth piece for the bench. He went 3-for-10 with an .862 OPS in 12 games, taking reps at second base, third base, and shortstop. The Orioles DFA’d Soto in January but invited him to big league camp this spring. Whether or not he makes the Opening Day roster likely depends on the status of fellow utility man Jorge Mateo. Mateo underwent elbow surgery last season and has been slowly building up this spring. It remains unclear if he’ll need to start the year on the IL, but if he does, Soto would presumably take his spot on the active roster. For what it’s worth, Kubatko points out that Mateo does not currently have a locker in Toronto.

3. The Orioles’ final bullpen spot:

Orioles right-hander Bryan Baker finds himself in a similar position to Soto. As Kubatko notes, Baker has not yet been informed if he has made the Opening Day roster, but he too has a locker at the Rogers Centre. Unlike Soto, however, Baker is already on Baltimore’s 40-man and is out of minor league options. In other words, it would be bigger news if Baker didn’t make the Opening Day roster, as the Orioles would have to designate him for assignment. What’s more, Kubatko reports that neither Matt Bowman nor Roansy Contreras, Baker’s biggest competitors for the final bullpen spot, has a locker in Toronto. It certainly seems like the job is his.

The 30-year-old Baker pitched well for Baltimore in his rookie season two years ago, putting up a 3.49 ERA and 3.35 SIERA in 66 games. He followed that up with a solid sophomore campaign (3.60 ERA, 4.14 SIERA in 46 games) but spent most of the final two months of the season at Triple-A after the trade deadline. This past year, he was optioned and recalled five times throughout the campaign. While his 5.01 ERA in 19 games was poor, his underlying numbers (3.48 SIERA, 3.59 xERA) remained solid.

MLBTR Podcast: What We Learned From The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • At the start of the offseason, we expected players to do better than in 2023-24 and it seems like they did. What can we learn from that? (1:50)
  • Apart from Juan Soto and Willy Adames, a lot of top position players have been struggling in free agency. Is this signal or noise? (7:10)
  • There seems to be growing frustration from fans of small-market clubs, with new CBA talks just over the horizon. How will baseball respond? (20:00)
  • The Mets outbid the Yankees on Soto. Is this a paradigm shift in New York? (36:40)
  • Does the Soto deal help the top of next year’s market, guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker? (45:50)
  • Many Central division teams had almost no money to spend due to TV revenue concerns. Are there solutions coming in the future? (54:40)
  • With the Rays stadium situation, the Twins being for sale, the White Sox and Royals trying to get new stadium money, is expansion possible in the near term? (59:30)
  • Things we’re excited about going into the 2025 season (1:05:55)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Cora: Devers Will Be Red Sox’ Primary Designated Hitter

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Red Sox manager Alex Cora confirmed today in an appearance on WEEI radio what has looked increasingly likely as spring training has progressed: Rafael Devers will serve as the Red Sox’ primary designated hitter in 2025, while newly signed Alex Bregman will take over at the hot corner (link via WEEI’s Ken Laird). “Alex is going to play third,” said Cora. “Raffy’s going to DH. We all are in the winning business. He understands that.”

It’s not a shock given recent developments but still notable to get a firm declaration on what will be a surprising pivot for the club. Devers has been Boston’s third baseman for a long time and seemed likely to stay there well into the future. The club signed him to a massive extension ahead of the 2023 season, locking him up through 2033. His defense was never well regarded but it seemed that he would get a chance to stick at the hot corner for a while based on his status within the organization.

Even once Bregman was signed, it seemed possible that Devers would stay at third. Bregman’s reps had maintained throughout the winter that he was willing to move to second base as a way to keep his market as open as possible. The Sox came into 2025 with some notable middle infield prospects but didn’t have a clear everyday guy at second in 2024.

But as alluded to, the plans became more clear as time went on. Bregman was only playing third base in camp. Devers wasn’t playing many official spring games and was only serving as the DH when he was in there. It was suggested that perhaps this was due to some shoulder problems he dealt with last year but it has become abundantly clear that the club just wants him to DH this year. Prospect Kristian Campbell will crack the Opening Day roster and seemingly be the regular second baseman.

The move makes sense from a competitive standpoint. Devers has been credited with -62 Defensive Runs Saved and -29 Outs Above Average in his career. Bregman’s tallies in those categories are +27 DRS and +22 OAA.

That’s an obvious choice in a vacuum but it’s unclear if there will be intangible effects in terms of clubhouse morale. Devers was initially adamant that he wouldn’t be moving off third, saying that he was promised that he could be there for the long haul. That promise was made while Chaim Bloom was still the chief baseball officer but he was later replaced by Craig Breslow. The new regime seems uninterested in honoring the promise of the previous one.

There are other questions left to be answered as well. Bregman’s three-year deal comes with opt-outs after each season. If he departs after 2025, will Devers get a chance to retake the spot next year? What if Bregman suffers a significant injury during the 2025 season?

Then there’s also the Masataka Yoshida factor. He made his major league debut in 2023 with a solid .289/.338/.445 line and 110 wRC+, but with bad defensive metrics in the outfield. Last year, he logged just a single inning in the field, limited to DH duty. His offense was similar to the year before, with a .280/.349/.415 line and 115 wRC+, but he apparently wasn’t thrilled with the arrangement.

He required shoulder surgery in October and is going to start the season on the injured list. He was healthy enough to hit during the spring but still needs to fully ramp up his throwing abilities in the wake of that surgery. With Devers in the DH spot, he will have to jog out onto the grass into order to get into the lineup. The Sox project to have Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu in three outfield spots, with Rob Refsnyder on the bench. Prospect Roman Anthony will also be pushing for a major league debut soon.

If everyone’s healthy, it will be tough for Yoshida to work his way in there. He still has three years and $54MM left on his deal. Given his modest production thus far, no other club will want to take all of that on. Rebuilding trade value will be tough if he can’t get in there fore regular playing time. Moving to first base isn’t an option for Devers or Yoshida with Triston Casas in that spot and under club control through 2028.

It’s a complicated puzzle and one that will probably continue to be talked about throughout the year. Cora’s declaration today gives confirmation to what was already obvious. The unanswered questions remain.

Astros’ Luis Garcia Going For Second Opinion On Elbow

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The Astros shut down Luis Garcia last week after the righty experienced renewed soreness in his elbow. The team hasn’t provided much in the way of specifics since then, but manager Joe Espada told the beat on Tuesday that Garcia was going for a second opinion (relayed by Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle).

Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. He hasn’t pitched in a major league game since then. Garcia was targeting a second-half return last season, which would have aligned with the standard TJS rehab timetable. They pulled back after he experienced elbow soreness. That theoretically allowed them to slow-play his recovery as he targeted a 2025 return.

The 28-year-old was going to begin this season on the injured list, but he’d been on a throwing program this spring. They shut that down last week after the latest bout of elbow discomfort. Espada didn’t say whether surgery was again a possibility. Any mention of a second opinion tends to be alarming, though it doesn’t guarantee Garcia sustained a significant injury. In any case, he’s unlikely to pitch anytime soon, since the Astros will presumably exercise caution given his recent history.

Houston will open the season with a starting five of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski. Garcia joins Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and J.P. France on the injured list. McCullers could return within the first few weeks, but he hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since the 2022 World Series because of repeated setbacks of his own.

Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon, neither of whom have pitched in the majors, project as the top depth arms on the 40-man roster. Gordon is beginning the season with Triple-A Sugar Land. The 26-year-old Gusto will break camp and work in long relief, the Astros announced earlier this week. He’ll be in line for his major league debut after working 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball this spring (albeit with seven walks).

Gusto actually received his first MLB call last September. The Astros tabbed him to start their final regular season game after clinching the AL West. They didn’t want to burn one of their playoff starters for what was a meaningless game, and they would’ve needed to add Gusto to the 40-man roster that offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately for Gusto, the game was canceled by rain, delaying his big league debut by a few months.

Rangers Release Cody Thomas

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The Rangers released outfielder Cody Thomas from his minor league contract. Texas also officially selected Kevin Pillar onto the 40-man roster after announcing yesterday that he’d make the team. They had an opening after outrighting Dane Dunning earlier in the week. Additionally, the Rangers reassigned a number of minor league signees to Triple-A Round Rock: Joe Barlow, Tucker Barnhart, Caleb Boushley, David Buchanan, JT Chargois, Matt Festa, Adrian Houser, Patrick Murphy (minor league injured list), Hunter Strickland, Alan Trejo and Chad Wallach.

Thomas signed a minor league deal after spending the ’24 season in Japan. The lefty-hitting outfielder spent most of the season with the minor league affiliate of the Orix Buffaloes. He only appeared in 10 NPB games and went 0-18 with seven strikeouts. Thomas went 2-18 this spring. He walked three times with six strikeouts.

An Oklahoma product, Thomas appeared in 29 MLB games with the A’s between 2022-23. He has hit well over parts of three seasons in the Pacific Coast League. The 6’4″ outfielder owns a .292/.356/.585 slash with 42 homers in 176 Triple-A games.

In other Rangers news, Patrick Corbin will begin the season in Triple-A. The veteran southpaw has more than enough service time to refuse any minor league assignments, but he agreed to be optioned because he didn’t sign his one-year free agent deal until March 18. That nearly coincided with the birth of his third child, so he did not pitch in any games this spring.

GM Chris Young told reporters on Tuesday that Corbin will start two games with Round Rock before being recalled (relayed by Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News). Young identified April 11 as the target date for Corbin’s team debut. Texas will go with Nathan Eovaldi as their Opening Day starter. Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker round out the season-opening starting five.

Yankees Place Eight Players On Injured List

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The Yankees announced eight injured list placements on Wednesday afternoon. Clarke Schmidt (rotator cuff tendinitis), JT Brubaker (rib fractures), Clayton Beeter (shoulder impingement), Ian Hamilton (virus), Scott Effross (hamstring strain) and Jonathan Loáisiga (rehab from elbow surgery) all landed on the 15-day injured list. As position players, Giancarlo Stanton (elbow epicondylitis) and DJ LeMahieu (calf strain) went on the 10-day IL. All placements were retroactive to March 24, the earliest date for 10-day or 15-day stints.

None of the moves come as a surprise. Loáisiga has been rehabbing last April’s UCL procedure and will be out at least into May. Stanton didn’t participate in Spring Training and faces an uncertain recovery timeline because of injuries to both elbows. Beeter has been throwing side sessions but didn’t see any game action in camp due to the shoulder issue. LeMahieu, Schmidt, Brubaker and Effross all suffered injuries in Spring Training. Hamilton isn’t hurt but didn’t make his Spring Training debut until last Thursday after being delayed by illness. He needs a couple weeks to continue his build-up.

The only surprise is that the Yanks did not place Jake Cousins on the 15-day IL this afternoon. He was delayed by a forearm strain and did not pitch in games this spring. Cousins has been throwing side sessions but it seems unlikely that the team would throw him directly into regular season action without any Spring Training appearances. It’s possible they’ll make another move when they officially set their Opening Day roster tomorrow.

One player who’ll certainly be on that roster: catcher J.C. Escarra. The Yankees announced over the weekend that the 29-year-old (30 next month) made the team, providing social media video of manager Aaron Boone informing him of that decision. Escarra secures the backup job behind Austin Wells and will make his major league debut once he gets into a game. The Yankees placed him on their 40-man roster at the beginning of the offseason so he wouldn’t reach minor league free agency.

A left-handed hitter, Escarra combined for a .261/.355/.434 line with nearly as many walks as strikeouts across 493 minor league plate appearances last season. The Yankees cleared a path for him to grab the backup job by trading Jose Trevino and Carlos Narváez over the winter. The spot was Escarra’s to lose entering camp, and he solidified it by hitting .302 with three homers in 19 games. Escarra was playing in the independent ranks and in Mexico as recently as 2023. Two years later, he’s breaking camp with an MLB team.

Poll: Who Will Win The NL Central?

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With Opening Day just over the horizon, teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series already covered the NL West, where the Dodgers were viewed as an overwhelming favorite, and will now move on to the NL Central. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)

The perennially underrated Brewers won the NL Central for a second consecutive year last season, finishing ten games up on the second-place Cubs and Cardinals. Impressively, they did so after losing both star manager Craig Counsell and ace right-hander Corbin Burnes the previous offseason. They’ll need to work that same magic to stay on top of their division this year after a winter that once again saw them part ways with major pieces. This time, longtime shortstop Willy Adames departed for San Francisco in free agency while the club traded star closer Devin Williams to the Yankees in exchange for prospect Caleb Durbin and southpaw Nestor Cortes.

Even without those stars, the Brewers could make some noise in a relatively weak division. A strong outfield anchored by Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio figures to impress once again in 2025, and William Contreras has blossomed into a true star behind the plate. Meanwhile, veteran ace Brandon Woodruff is expected back sometime early this year after missing 2024 due to shoulder surgery, joining existing rotation pieces like Freddy Peralta and Aaron Civale to form a strong group. The club’s first challenge of the year will be getting through the early weeks of the season with a patchwork rotation, as each of Woodruff, Tobias Myers, DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, and Robert Gasser figure to open the year on the injured list.

Chicago Cubs (83-79)

After a second consecutive 83-79 finish in 2024, the Cubs made some major changes over the offseason. The club said goodbye to its longest-tenured player as Kyle Hendricks departed for Anaheim, replacing him in the rotation with southpaw Matthew Boyd, and swapped out Cody Bellinger for Kyle Tucker, a clear offensive upgrade that cost them third baseman Isaac Paredes to pull off. A reconstructed bullpen featuring Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Caleb Thielbar, and Eli Morgan looks strong on paper than the relief corps that was expected to be anchored by Adbert Alzolay and Hector Neris last year, as well. Despite those on-paper improvements, the Cubs face plenty of questions entering 2025. Matt Shaw, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and even Miguel Amaya offer plenty of upside at third base, in center field, and behind the plate respectively but none are surefire offensive contributors.

There’s still plenty to like, however. Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ provide an incredibly strong floor in the outfield, and the addition of Justin Turner offers protection against a sophomore slump for 2024 standout rookie Michael Busch at first base while Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson figure to offer their perennially excellent defense alongside league average offense up the middle. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga offer a quality one-two punch at the front of the club’s rotation, as well. It’s not too difficult to see a path back to the playoffs for the Cubs this year despite the questions, and adding a true star like Tucker ahead of his walk year could be the boost they need to recapture the division in 2025.

St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)

2024 was a mixed bag for the Cardinals, as they managed to get back over .500 following a disastrous 2023 campaign but saw both Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt fail to live up to expectations as they fell short of the playoffs once again. The struggles of the last two years prompted the Cardinals front office to put a focus on developing young players and parting ways with veterans this winter, though no-trade clauses wielded by Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Arenado prevented that goal from coming to fruition outside of the departures of veterans like Goldschmidt and Kyle Gibson via free agency.

That’s left the Cardinals with a roster that looks simultaneously similar and slightly downgraded from last year. Phil Maton was the club’s only big league free agent addition this winter, offering a veteran set-up option for closer Ryan Helsley after Andrew Kittredge departed in free agency. Outside of that, the club’s moves were largely internal. Contreras replaced Goldschmidt at first base to make room for a catching tandem of Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, Matthew Liberatore is sliding into the club’s rotation from the bullpen, and the club appears committed to giving more regular opportunities to younger players like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Alec Burleson. St. Louis’s hopes of finding success in 2025 likely hinge on those young players making the most of their opportunities this year and taking big steps forward.

Cincinnati Reds (77-85)

2024 was a deeply disappointed season in Cincinnati, as a club that many expected to blossom instead fell apart in the face of injuries all over the roster. Strong performances from stars Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene aside, there were few positive takeaways from last season. Fortunately, the club made substantial changes ahead of the 2025 season. They got things started in October by hiring future Hall of Famer Terry Francona to manage the club, and since then they’ve added Gavin Lux, Taylor Rogers, Jose Trevino, and Brady Singer in free agency while bringing back Nick Martinez and signing Austin Hays.

It was a busy offseason that added a number of solid complimentary pieces, all of whom should help the Reds avoid a total collapse like they suffered last year. Even so, the club will need better health from its core players to contend. The return of Matt McLain should offer a big boost, while healthy seasons from TJ Friedl in center field, Jeimer Candelario at third base, and Nick Lodolo in the rotation could be game changing as well. The pieces appear to be in place for brighter days in 2025, but whether that will be enough to get the Reds back to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game season since 2013 remains to be seen.

Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)

Pittsburgh hasn’t finished above fourth place in the NL Central since 2016, and even a full season from reigning NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes won’t be enough to pull the club back into postseason contention on its own. The Pirates had a relatively quiet offseason this winter as they brought Andrew Heaney into the rotation alongside the additions of Spencer Horwitz and Tommy Pham to the lineup but made few additions beyond that trio. Those additions join a solid enough nucleus that includes Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds, but a lineup light on impact and a bullpen still anchored by David Bednar even after a 5.77 ERA season last year raise questions about the club’s ability to compete before even considering the fact that Jones and Horwitz are both presently nursing injuries.

That’s not to say there’s no hope for the Pirates this year, however. Skenes is perhaps the best young pitcher in the entire sport, and even if Jones misses time Keller, Heaney, and Bailey Falter make for a solid rotation that should keep the club in most games. A big season from Horwitz once he returns from the IL along with steps forward for young players like Cruz, Endy Rodriguez, and Nick Gonzales could lift the lineup well above its projections even if the club continues to get little value from former 1-1 pick Henry Davis, and Bednar returning to the form he showed in his previous back-to-back All-Star campaigns would go along way as well.

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It was a fairly busy offseason in the NL Central, and while the division still appears weaker at the top than its rivals on the coasts it nonetheless stands out as the only one in the National League where all five clubs are making some attempt to contend in 2025. Will the Brewers be able to hold onto the division crown for a third consecutive season? Will an up-and-coming club like the Cubs or Reds take a big enough step forward to wrest control? Or, perhaps, the Cardinals or Pirates will get the steps forward from young pieces necessary to surprise? Have your say in the poll below:

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