For a second straight offseason, Astros owner Jim Crane is “wary” of exceeding the luxury tax threshold, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. Dipping under the tax line was a clear priority for Houston last offseason as well.
This year’s first-tier luxury threshold lands at $244MM. Per RosterResource, the Astros are currently about $25MM shy of that mark. Their DFA of Ramon Urias and last night’s trade of fellow utilityman Mauricio Dubón (for lower-priced utility option Nick Allen) trimmed a net $8.7MM off that payroll projection, which uses MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries.
Houston’s current $218.9MM luxury tax projection could — and very likely will — dip further over the next 36 hours. The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tomorrow at 5pm ET. The ’Stros have several plausible non-tender candidates, including outfielder Jesus Sanchez ($6.5MM projected salary), reliever Enyel De Los Santos ($2.1MM projection) and outfielder Taylor Trammell ($900K projection). If the Astros move on from that trio, they’d trim a net $7.15MM from the current $218.9MM projection.
The Astros are known to be in the market for rotation help — they already took a cheap one-year flier on former top prospect Nate Pearson, guaranteeing him $1.35MM — and have been working to balance out a heavily right-handed lineup for the better part of the past calendar year. Framber Valdez is a free agent, leaving Hunter Brown atop a starting staff with more question marks than reliable contributors.
Cristian Javier is a quality mid-rotation arm when healthy, but 2026 will be his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. Lance McCullers Jr. returned from a two-year injury absence in 2025 but struggled badly. Spencer Arrighetti missed most of the season with a broken thumb. Jason Alexander was a surprise contributor in 2025, but he’s a journeyman 33-year-old with no prior MLB success who’d struggled in Triple-A from 2023-24. J.P. France pitched just four MLB frames and was hit hard in Triple-A after spending the first two-thirds of the season rehabbing from shoulder surgery. Left-hander Colton Gordon was tagged for a 5.34 ERA in 19 starts as a rookie. Righty AJ Blubaugh impressed in his first 32 big league innings but was tagged for a 5.27 ERA in a much larger Triple-A sample. Each of Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter underwent Tommy John surgery. Prospect Miguel Ullola could factor in, but he’s yet to pitch in the majors and has poor command.
Suffice it to say, the need for starting pitching is acute, but the means to acquire it aren’t exactly plentiful. The Astros can certainly add one free agent starter at a notable salary, but that’d eat up a good chunk of the space they have between their current standing and the first luxury tier. Adding a left-handed bat to a lineup where Yordan Alvarez and rookie outfielder Zach Cole are the only current options (assuming Sanchez is non-tendered or traded) will also cut into the gap. Houston would presumably prefer to add another catcher, too; current backup Cesar Salazar hit just .213/.353/.353 in Triple-A this past season and has just 67 career plate appearances in the majors. He’ll turn 30 in March. And of course, most teams prefer to maintain at least a little financial wiggle-room for in-season dealings.
The trade market always presents alternative options, but Houston’s farm system is in dire straits. The Astros have long shown a knack for coaxing strong performances out of pitchers who weren’t considered top-tier talent throughout the industry (though the team clearly stalled in that regard this past season). However, that doesn’t mean other clubs will be lining up to surrender established talent in exchange for minor leaguers from what’s widely regarded as a bottom-five system in the game.
It’s feasible that further trades could be engineered to create more spending power, but GM Dana Brown has downplayed the possibility of moving first baseman Christian Walker (owed $40MM through 2027) and flatly said that he has “no interest” in trading infielder Isaac Paredes ($9.3MM projected salary). As things stand, the Astros have limited spending power to address their needs and an even more limited stock of minor league talent to peddle if they try to upgrade via trade. There are never any “easy” answers when trying to assemble a competitive roster with sufficient depth to navigate a 162-game season, but Brown & Co. are staring at their most complicated puzzle in recent memory.
The Division belongs to Seattle or Hopefully Texas now. It’s the end of the cheaters time. I’m still surprised they traded for Correa if they are getting cheap now.
Big facts. The Astros and their fans don’t want to admit it, but they’re 3rd/4th place team now.
It was a nice run for them.
Lol Angels and As tho
Houston finished tied for the last wildcard spot last year despite pretty much their entire rotation going down and yordan giving them basically nothing.
I wouldn’t write them off just yet, they’ve created insane organizational depth and if they have better luck injury wise I would expect them to be in the mix for the division
They have attempted to stay under the luxury tax threshold the last few offseasons. The Correa deal is making it harder. So they are being just as cheap as they have been.
I would agree with you when it comes to Seattle. By the way, the cheaters reign ended after the 2018 season, and not the Texas Rangers. They need to make Offseason moves, we’ll see what happens later in the Offseason.
Yeah, the Rangers got a rare full healthy season from DeGrom and surprisingly good innings from Corbin to manage a .500 season. Corbin, Kelly, Mahle are FA. I don’t think they are that close to a playoff team right now.
The Rangers are likely the most overrated team in MLB. I think they will be projected .500 team unless they add some stuff.
Yes they can!
At least, they play in the same division as the Angels and A’s….
Stros should trade Walker straight up for Nimmo and non tender Sanchez.
I know some video games allow a player to force trades, but I was unaware that forcing trades was something that could work in real life.
But in that case, why don’t the Stros just trade Walker straight up for Skenes or Skubal?
Are you insane? This is something that my friend says. The answer is NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO from the Tigers/Pirates.
I think you missed his point.
I probably did.
Calm down fella. Take a little time, read the comments, ask yourself how they’re intended before leaping in. And, with respect, probably post a little less.
Why would the Mets want Walker? Oh Pete is a free agent so they will trade a useable outfielder for someone who is old expensive and declined both offensively and defensively last year. Lol. Only reason to trade Nimmo is to save money for this offseason moves. Not save money two years down the line.
They want to trade Nimmo for their upcoming young outfielders AJ Ewing and Benge. Alonso is a DH. They may still sign him for that. They will play McNeil in left field this year and then let him go if kids are ready next year. Mets have an option on him next year. Also opens up 2nd base for the more defensive young infielders Baty, Mauricio Jett to compete for 2nd base. Clifford, the former Astro prospect, should be ready for 1st base by the time Walker contract expires. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go after Bergman besides a starter like Gallen or Cease.
Duh. Does this article need to be made?
If they don’t have the prospect collateral for a big trade, and money is an issue, it means bargain hunting; a Houser, Mahle or Bassitt type, a reclamation project like Bueller or May, and some cheap wallpaper to paste over an underachieving bullpen…
I think AJ Preller proved at the trade deadline last season prospect capital is way overblown. Everyone kept saying that SD didn’t have enough to get any trades done and they went and got what they wanted.
Fans still remember the time when teams were trading top 100 prospects all the time. But moving top 100 guys is becoming more rare. You can get a lot done with a just ok farm system.
Yeah. The ones that are more likely to be dealt are the 90s and possibly the 80s. 70s have a slim chance, but 60s and under is just…
Unless if your San Diego and decided to trade de Vries.
The Astros 2025 revenue was roughly 500 million. Besides being cheap, why are they not spending? Oh I forgot, the Dodgers are ruining baseball.
It’s because MLB is a cartel. It enables owners to maximize revenue rather than incentive owners to field competitive rosters.
It’s about draft penalties. Which increase significantly if you go over in consecutive years. For what it’s worth they said the same thing about staying under in the 23-24 offseason and then they signed Hader. He’ll cross it but only for the right player. Who could be Dylan Cease. But they’re not gonna let marginal players like Mauricio Dubon be the difference in staying under.
Thanks captain obvious
It’s apparently not obvious because of all the “why so cheap” people here.
I am so sick of Jim Crane being a cheap owner.
I feel like he should spend more on pitching.
He will spend, just not above the luxury tax threshold.
Oh and the franchise is worth roughly 3 billion. Crane paid 680 million in 2011. He’s made roughly 2 billion profit in appreciation but he can’t exceed the luxury tax?????
Impressive.
What a franchise is worth and profit are not the same thing,
Yeah valuation does not equal liquid cash, I don’t know why people don’t understand that.
They generate roughly 500 million a year and spend 200. They’re highly profitable excluding the 2+ BILLION he’ll make when he sells.
Well again, the CBT is not just about money. It’s about draft penalties, which increase when you go over in consecutive years.
In total, the penalties are.
1. Get taxed
2. Lose picks for signing QO
3. Lose bonus pool for signing QO
You also lose draft picks for crossing the CBT in consecutive years, not just for signing free agents with a QO.
They get delayed by 10 picks if you go through too much. not lose.
It is a big loss because it affects how much money you can spend on your draft picks.
So do you support the fact that Jim Crane isn’t spending on starting pitching
Huh? Offseason just started. They’re definitely gonna spend on a starting pitcher or two.
Most picks amount to nothing. It’s a farce. Unless you’re picking in the top 10, it’s a crap shoot every year. Pucks are overvalued because they’re cheap talent for cheap teams that might amount to something. Nothing more, nothing less. Most current MLB players were picked outside of the first 3 rounds.
85MM plus
@noquarter What about all the other expenses of running a franchise? Employees, taxes, stadium upkeep, cost of concession goods. Player salary is not the only cost.
It’s about draft penalties. Which increase significantly if you go over in consecutive years. For what it’s worth they said the same thing about staying under in the 23-24 offseason and then they signed Hader. He’ll cross it but only for the right player. Who could be Dylan Cease. But they’re not gonna let marginal players like Mauricio Dubon be the difference in staying under.
You do realize he gets taxed from his own wallet.
They also get taxed from their draft pool.
The international bonus pool. They lose picks.
I guess that makes it obvious why Houston traded Dubin for Allen.
It’s Mauricio Dubon, Dubin is another player.
Crane never really spent big, but began to with Christian Walker, Josh Hader, and bringing back Carlos Correa.
Those moves felt like an attempt to hold onto that competitive window while letting franchise prospects walk. Houston had a great run of development, beneficial trades, and scandals… and won the World Series twice in that window. Sustainability has run out, and Crane may be wise to retool a depleted farm system and save for when the team is competitive again.
After talented farm systems such as the Orioles and White Sox have seemed to fail, Houston really did well over the past 10 years.
The Astros are going to have to pony up on starting pitching to compete this year.
They said this in the 23-24 offseason and then they signed Hader. I think they will happily cross for the right player (ie Cease).
They signed 95 million for a reliever. But only 85 million for a starter? Yes, I think they should go for a top starter.
Good. Players are far too expensive.
The Astros are going to have to go over the 85 million starting pitcher threshold. But they can stay under the threshold with enough cuts.
Translation: we will miss the playoffs again
How Nick Allen is on a MLB roster is a mystery to me. His glove isn’t worth that newspaper bat
Easy. shortstop was such an absolute train wreck for the Braves that Allen got a bunch of playing time just for his glove alone.
Dbacks trade proposal with the Astros. Walker and one of Arreghetti, Gordon or Alexander for Eduardo Rodriguez and Pavin Smith.
Eduardo Rodriguez’s contract is even further underwater than Walker’s.
It will be tight financially, but there is definitely a path to contending. They have to get a decent starter (a #2 or 3 in rotayion) and and useful but relatively cheap outfielder . Might have to trim some payroll fat like they did with dubon, but it can be done. My preference would be to move Hader for someone pitching and prospects, but it would be selling low with his health. If they wanted to be really bold, alleviate the crowded infield by trading Pena for someone like Schlittler.